Sunday 10-28-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Tech Trends - Week 8
Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Oct. 28

PHILADELPHIA vs. JACKSONVILLE - at Wembley Stadium, London (NFL, 9:30 a.m. ET)
Jags slumping, 1-4 SU and vs. line last five. Jags also 1-5 vs. spread last six in reg season away from Everbank. Birds “over” six straight away from Linc.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Eagles, based on “totals” and team trends.


CLEVELAND at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Brownies have covered 3 of last 4 at Pittsburgh and ride a 4-game cover streak against Steelers. Tomlin 1-7 vs. spread last 8 at home. Steel 6-2 “over” last 8.
Tech Edge: Browns and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.


DENVER at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Andy Reid on 11-game spread cover streak in reg season and has now covered last six vs. Denver. Broncos broke road drought at Arizona but Vance Joseph still 2-9 SU and vs. spread away (Denver 2-11 last 13 away). “Overs” 5-1-1 last seven in series.
Tech Edge: Chiefs and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.


NY JETS at CHICAGO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Todd Bowles 11-7-2 last 20 as dog since late in 2016. Bears however 10-4-2 last 16 vs. spread at Soldier Field (2-1 for Nagy).
Tech Edge: Slight to Bears, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON at NY GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Colts 3-1 vs. line last four away. Jets 3-5-1 last nine vs. line since late 2017.
Tech Edge: Colts, based on recent trends.


SEATTLE at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions have covered five straight since debacle of an opener vs. Jets. Detroit also “over” 6-1 dating to late 2017. Seahawks “under” 9-3 last 12 away from CenturyLink.
Tech Edge: Slight to Lions, based on recent trends.


TAMPA BAY at CINCINNATI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bucs “over” 6-1 since late 2017, Cincy “over” 6-2 last eight. Bucs 2-5-1 vs. line last eight away.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


BALTMORE at CAROLINA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ravens 5-2-1 last eight as dog. Cam 3-5 vs. points last seven in reg season. Panthers also “over” 9-5 last 14 since late LY.
Tech Edge: Ravens and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


INDIANAPOLIS at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Raiders 4-13-3 vs. line since early 2017, also “under” 11-2 last 13 since mid 2017.
Tech Edge: Colts and “under,” based on Raiders trends.


SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Cards were actually 3-0-1 vs. spread in the four previous to Denver fiasco. Niners have covered last two on road and are 6-3 vs. spread last nine away. Road team has covered last five in series. Niners “over” 8-1 last nine since late 2017.
Tech Edge: “Over” and 49ers, based on “totals” and series road trends.


GREEN BAY at L.A. RAMS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Pack “over” 12-3 last 15 since mid 2017, Rams “over” 8-4 last 12 reg season games.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.


NEW ORLEANS at MINNESOTA (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Vikes picking up pace, now 3-0-1 last four vs. spread, but Saints have covered 4 in a row. Saints 12-5 last 17 as dog, Vikes 13-3-2 last 18 on board reg season.
Tech Edge: Slight to Saints, based on team trends.

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NFL's Top ATS Teams (based on cover %):

1. Chiefs 7-0 ATS
2. Lions 5-1 ATS
3. Browns 5-2 ATS
t4. Saints 4-2 ATS
t4. Redskins 4-2 ATS
6. Vikings 4-2-1 ATS

NFL's Worst ATS Teams (based on cover %):

t29. Texans 2-5 ATS
t29. Falcons 2-5 ATS
t29. Eagles 2-5 ATS
t29. 49ers 2-5 ATS
t26. Packers 2-4 ATS
t26. Buccaneers 2-4 ATS
t26. Raiders 2-4 ATS

1 post not 2 asshole

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By: Brandon DuBreuil


NEWTON CLEARED

Carolina left Cam Newton (shoulder) off of its injury report on Friday, meaning he’ll be ready to go on Sunday as the Panthers host Baltimore. But Newton is in a very tough spot in Week 8 against a Ravens defense that ranks second in the NFL in giving up just 190.4 passing yards per game. The Ravens also bring pressure on 37.2 percent of snaps, which is the second-highest rate in the league. It just so happens that Newton isn’t great when under pressure — in fact, he ranks 30th among quarterbacks in yards per dropback when blitzed. We’re not completely fading Newton as he’s always a threat with his feet but we don’t see a big day coming from him through the air. Take the Under on his passing yards total of 245.5.


NJOKU’S JUST FINE

After being limited in practice all week, Cleveland tight end David Njoku (knee) was removed from the injury report on Friday and is a go for Sunday’s tilt at Pittsburgh. Njoku has been a solid offensive tight end since Baker Mayfield took over at quarterback, averaging 5.5 receptions for 57 yards on nine targets per game.

On Wednesday, we backed Jimmy Graham with the analysis that teams target their tight ends at the second-highest rate when they play the Rams (25.1%). Well, the only team that has opponents who target their tight ends at a higher rate is the Pittsburgh Steelers (26.5%). In addition, 30.3 percent of passes completed against the Steelers have gone to tight ends, which is the highest rate in the league. Njoku is in a great spot on Sunday and we’re backing the Over 4.5 on his receptions total


BRYANT GETS TALKED UP

Raiders offensive coordinator Greg Olson had some encouraging things to say about receiver Martavis Bryant on Thursday when asked about Bryant stepping into a starting position now that Amari Cooper is gone. "I think it helps a player like Martavis Bryant because he’s got tremendous skills, tremendous size and speed, and he’s still really kind of learning the system."

There’s no doubting Bryant’s talent and Sunday against Indy could actually be a decent spot to back Bryant while he’s cheap. The Colts do not have a good pass defense as they rank 31st in pass completion rate at 72.1 percent and are allowing 280.1 passing yards per game. We mentioned earlier in the week that we like the Colts to win big in this game and that would actually help Bryant’s cause as he’d be able to pick up a couple cheap completions late in garbage time. We’re backing Bryant while his price is still low and taking the Over 3.5 on his receptions total.


STAYING AWAY FROM ENGRAM

Earlier in the week, we talked about fading Eli Manning and the Giants in general, partly due to a tough matchup and partly due to the Giants throwing in the towel on the season. Today, we’re going to double down and fade New York tight end Evan Engram.

Engram is talented but he’s having a rough season, partially due to injury as he missed Weeks 4-6. He just hasn’t gotten into a rhythm with the offense yet, as proven by the fact that he has received just 13.4 percent of targets from Manning in the games he has played. On Sunday he goes against Washington and a defense that is allowing just 5.93 yards per attempt to tight ends (best in the league) and hasn’t yet allowed a tight end to gain over 50 yards. It could be ugly for the Giants offense on Sunday and we’re taking the Under on Engram’s receiving yards total.


TOUGH RUNNIN’ IN LONDON

The Philadelphia Eagles have only allowed one running back 50 or more rushing yards this season and that was Saquon Barkley. The Jaguars head to London with questions about how they’ll use their backfield as Carlos Hyde makes his Jacksonville debut and T.J. Yeldon still around to take away some touches. But one thing is for sure: the outlook isn’t great for either one on Sunday at Wembley.

Hyde had decent total numbers in Cleveland this season but that was only because of how often he got the ball. He rushed for 60-plus yards in four of six games this season but is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry on the season. At that clip, Hyde would need 18 carries to get near the 60-yard mark on Sunday, and he won’t get anywhere near that total on Sunday with Yeldon in the mix. We’re taking the Under on Hyde’s rushing yards total in his Jacksonville debut.

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The Redskins will travel to meet the Giants in Week 8. Washington is a dismal 1-4 ATS over their past five on the road, and 1-6 ATS in the past seven inside the NFC East Division. They're also 1-7 ATS in their past eight following a straight-up win. As far as the Giants, they're just 3-8 ATS across the past 11 at home and 3-9 ATS in their past 12 against NFC foes, pending Monday's result. In this series, the under is 12-3 in the past 15 in New Jersey, while the Redskins are 1-4 ATS in their past five visits against the Giants. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven, while Washington is 3-7 ATS in the past 10 in this series.

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The Broncos and Chiefs meet for the second time this season. Kansas City won 27-23 in the Mile High City on a Monday night in Week 4, barely covering as 3 1/2-point favorites as the 'under' (53) cashed. The Broncos are 3-12-1 ATS in their past 16 against divisional foes, and 2-11 ATS in their past 13 on the road. The Chiefs have covered 10 of the past 11, and they're 5-1 ATS in their past six at Arrowhead. While the road team is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 meetings, the Broncos are 0-6 ATS in their past six trips to K.C. The over is 4-1 in the past five at Arrowhead, and 5-1-1 in the past seven meetings in this series.

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After a Week 1 tie, the Browns and Steelers will square off in the second meeting of the year in the Steel City. Despite that cover, Cleveland is still just 4-14-1 ATS in their past 19 inside the AFC North. The Steelers are just 4-9 ATS in their past 13 overall, and 1-5 ATS in the past six inside the division. Surprisingly, they're also 0-5 ATS in the past five following a bye. Cleveland is 3-0-1 ATS in the past four meetings, and the 'over' is 11-5-1 in the past 17 meetings in Pittsburgh.

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If it seems like the 49ers and Cardinals just met, it wasn't that long ago. Arizona won 28-18 in San Francisco for QB Josh Rosen's first NFL win on Oct. 7, covering as three-point 'dogs. Frisco is 5-2 ATS in their past seven on the road, and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 inside the division. The Cardinals are 3-1-1 ATS in their past five overall. The road team has covered five in a row in this series, and the 49ers are 9-3 ATS in their past 12 trips to the desert.

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Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott confirmed the Bills will start Derek Anderson in Week 8 against the Patriots.
Nathan "Pick Six" Peterman is back to the bench...again.
Week 8 spread: +13.5 at home vs. Pats

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The Oakland Raiders have placed RB Marshawn Lynch on IR (groin) and he will miss at least eight weeks. May have played his last game as a Raider.
Oakland +3 vs. Colts in Week 8.

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Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone has announced Blake Bortles will start at quarterback at home against the Eagles in Week 8.
Spread: Eagles -3.5
Total: 41.5

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Green Bay is getting healthier coming out of its bye as receivers Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison both practiced on Tuesday and are on track to face the Rams on Sunday. This is good news for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense and it will hopefully open up some additional space for tight end Jimmy Graham.

We got a winner by fading the Rams’ ability to cover tight ends by backing George Kittle to go over 4.5 receptions last week and we’re employing a similar strategy this week. L.A.’s opponents are targeting their tight ends on almost 25 percent of their passes. Graham has 20 total targets over his last two games and turned them into stat lines of 6-76 and 5-104. All the injuries at receiver helped force a chemistry between Rodgers and Graham and we expect the two to connect often on Sunday in a game that’s looking like a shootout with a total of 56. We’re backing the Over on Graham’s receptions total.

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Bengals list LB Vontaze Burfict (hip), RB Giovani Bernard (knee), and WR John Ross (groin) as out for this Sundays match-up with the Buccaneers.
Cincinnati opened at -6, now sitting at -3.5

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CAPPERS ACCESS
(NFL)
Bears
Lions
Raiders
Vikings

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Marc Lawrence Incredible Stat of the Day:

The Arizona Cardinals are a mind-boggling 17-0 ATS as a home favorite of less than 4 points when coming off consecutive SUATS losses.

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BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Sunday, Oct. 28 is:

NY Jets and Chicago Bears 'under' 42.5