Monday 10-29-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NFL

Week 8

Trend Report

Monday. October 29

New England Patriots
New England is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 games
New England is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 6 games
New England is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games on the road
New England is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 7 games on the road
New England is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games when playing Buffalo
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 7 games when playing on the road against Buffalo

Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games
Buffalo is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 2-11-1 ATS in its last 14 games when playing at home against New England
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games when playing at home against New England

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 8


Monday October 29, 2018

New England @ Buffalo

Game 275-276
October 29, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
139.322
Buffalo
120.939
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 18 1/2
65
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 13 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-13 1/2); Over

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NFL

Week 8

Monday
Patriots (5-2) @ Bills (2-5)— In four games with Edelman/Gordon at WR, New England scored average of 39.3 ppg, winning all four games, last two by 3-7 points. Patriots are 1-2 on road; since ’16, NE is 12-6 as road favorites, but over last four years, New England is only 3-9 vs spread as a divisional road favorite. Patriots are 31-4 in last 35 games vs Buffalo, winning last six in Buffalo (four by 15+ points). Bills were +5 in turnovers in their two wins this season; in their last four games, they scored two offensive TD’s on 42 drives, with 12 turnovers. Buffalo started three QB’s in its first seven games, and injured rookie Allen was best by far. Last five Buffalo games stayed under the total; last three Patriot games went over.

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MNF - Patriots at Bills
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The Patriots (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) are back in control of the AFC East after holding off the Bears, 38-31. New England was able to score a pair of non-offensive touchdowns as Cordarrelle Patterson returned a kickoff 95 yards for a score and Kyle Van Noy picked up a blocked punt and brought it back for the tie-breaking touchdown in the third.

Tom Brady did his thing for the Patriots for throwing three touchdown passes, the fourth time this season the future Hall-of-Famer has posted a trio of touchdown tosses. Running back James White hauled in a pair of touchdowns from Brady, while recently acquired Josh Gordon picked up his first 100-yard game since joining New England in Week 4. Tight end Rob Gronkowski missed the victory with a back injury but is expected to suit up on Monday.

The Bills (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) have been an utter disaster at times this season, as Buffalo seemed to be moving in the right direction with rookie quarterback Josh Allen. However, the former Wyoming standout suffered an elbow injury in a 20-13 loss at Houston in Week 7. So Buffalo had to turn to journeyman quarterback Derek Anderson against Indianapolis, who was intercepted three times in a 37-5 drubbing to the Colts.

Running back LeSean McCoy left early after only two carries for one yard due to a head injury, but should play on Monday. Since scoring 27 points in a rout of Minnesota in Week 3, the Bills have scored a total of 31 points in the last four games, while ranking last in the NFL with 81 points on the season.

UNDER THUNDER

Due to Buffalo’s lack of offense, the Bills are turning into a solid team to back on the UNDER on a weekly basis. The Bills are currently on a five-game UNDER streak as none of those contests have closed with a total of higher than 43 ½, while not busting the 13-point mark in each of the past four weeks.

The last OVER for the Bills cashed in Week 2 at home against the Chargers in a 31-20 loss on a 41 ½ total. Monday’s total will be the highest for the Bills this season at 44 ½, while this is the lowest total for New England since Week 2 against Jacksonville (also 44 ½).

PATS GOING TO PAT

Although New England is currently on a three-game OVER streak, the Patriots have lit up the scoreboard since a 1-2 start. After getting blasted at Detroit in Week 3, the Patriots have scored 38, 38, 43, and 38 points the past four weeks. To put this scoring run in perspective, New England never scored 38 points or more in four consecutive games back in their undefeated regular season run of 2007, a year that they finished with the second-most points in a season in NFL history with 589.

SERIES HISTORY

Since getting shut out at Buffalo in the 2003 season opener, the Patriots have won 13 of the past 14 matchups at New Era Field. Buffalo’s last home win against New England came in 2011 as a seven-point underdog, 34-31. Since that upset, the margin of victory for the Patriots in western New York has been 24, 2, 15, 8, 16, and 20. Last season, the Pats blasted the Bills as 7 ½-point road favorites, 23-3.

The Bills have dropped five of the past six meetings overall with the Patriots since 2015 as the lone victory came in 2016 at Gillette Stadium, 16-0*. Yes, there is an asterisk next to that score as Brady was serving the final game of his Deflategate suspension. In the next meeting in Buffalo, the Patriots ripped the Bills, 41-25 behind four touchdown passes from Brady.

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

The Patriots have appeared on Monday Night Football once in each of the past five seasons, compiling a 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS mark. All three losses have come on the road at Miami (2017), Kansas City (2014), and Carolina (2013), as New England’s last Monday night away victory came in the 2011 opener at Miami.

New England and Buffalo last met on a Monday night at Gillette Stadium in 2015 as the Patriots held off the Bills, 20-13 as seven-point favorites. The Bills are 0-5 on Mondays since 2007, but Buffalo has compiled a 2-1-1 ATS mark as an underdog, while hosting a Monday game for the first time since 2008 against Cleveland.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

Expert Joe Nelson checks in with his thoughts on this AFC East matchup. As mentioned earlier, the Bills’ offense has continued to struggle, but Nelson notes that Buffalo’s defense hasn’t been too bad, “Buffalo has held four of the last five opponents to 22 or fewer points as the defense has been capable. Buffalo is third in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed surrendering only 6.7 yards per attempt to only trail Baltimore and Jacksonville in that category. Buffalo has allowed 13 passing touchdowns, but has 19 sacks and five interceptions. Buffalo’s offense has given away 16 turnovers however including a league-high 12 interceptions from a trio of marginal quarterbacks.”

The Bills are a heavy underdog as expected, but Buffalo has history on its side according to Nelson, “Since 2007, NFL home underdogs of 10 or more points are 40-20 ATS including going 4-0 ATS (and 2-2 SU) last season. The past six NFL home underdogs of 14 or more points have all covered as well going back to November of 2009. The Patriots have been a double-digit road favorite 11 times under Belichick going 5-6 ATS including losing SU twice in the past four attempts since 2016, both times in Miami.”

LINE MOVEMENT

The Patriots opened up as 14-point road favorites at the Westgate Superbook last week. There hasn’t been much movement on the side as the Westgate has New England at -13 ½, while many books have kept the Pats at -14. The total has also been steady at 44 ½, the lowest between these teams with Brady starting since 2015, won by the Patriots, 40-32 in Buffalo.

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Patriots' TE Rob Gronkowski (back, ankle) will reportedly be active tonight @ Bills on Monday Night Football.
Pointspread: Pats -14
Total: 44.5

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Scott Rickenbach

Oct 29 '18, 7:05 PM in 14m
NHL | Flames vs Maple Leafs
Play on: Flames +134 at betonline

Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Game #51 Monday Free Pick Calgary Flames Money Line (+) @ Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7:05 ET - This is the perfect spot to take a shot with a sizable underdog in the right situation at the right time. Calgary has lost 3 straight games but the Flames previously had won 5 of their 7 prior games and this hockey club is much improved this season and their record will eventually reflect that. Calgary is catching the Maple Leafs off huge back to back wins in a battle that was effectively the top Canadian team in the East versus the top Canadian team in the West. Those back to back wins for Toronto over Winnipeg had a "cherry on top" thanks to the big rally for the 3-2 win in the 3rd period for the Leafs over the Jets on Saturday. As a result, I feel Toronto is not going to have a lot left in the tank here and, keep in mind, Toronto had previously lost 3 of their 4 prior home games. The Flames did lose their most recent road game but had previously won 3 of their 4 prior road games. Calgary lost their lone match-up at Toronto last season despite a 48-29 edge in shots on goal. Time for a little payback tonight! Look for the Flames to improve to 5-1 this season when off a game where they allowed 4 or more goals! Free Pick CALGARY Money Line

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Info Plays

Oct 29 '18, 7:05 PM in 14m
NBA | Blazers vs Pacers
Play on: Pacers -4 -109 at GTBets

1* Free Play on Pacers -4 -109

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Dave Price

Oct 29 '18, 7:05 PM in 14m
NBA | Hawks vs 76ers
Play on: 76ers -11 -101 at pinnacle

Dave’s Monday Free Play:
1* on Philadelphia 76ers -11
The Key: The Hawks are probably the least-talented team in the NBA. They do have two wins already, but their three losses have all come by 12 points or more to the Knicks, Grizzlies and Bulls. Their two wins came against the Cavs and Mavs. So the 76ers will be by far the best team they have faced yet. And I expect them to get run out of the gym tonight. The 76ers went 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their three meetings with the Hawks last season, winning two of those by double-digits. The 76ers are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games, and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Take Philadelphia.

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Teddy Davis

Oct 29 '18, 7:35 PM in 44m
NBA | Kings vs Heat
Play on: Kings +8½ -100 at pinnacle

The Kings here are worth a look at this price. They have had a couple days here after winning their last two games both as an underdog. This team is loaded with young talent so they will take their lumps along the way, but the Heat dont deserve to be this big of favorite.
Miami is coming off a big win which I had over Portland and this is their final home game before a 3 game road stretch coming up. The Heat were favored by the same over a Knicks team that has major injuries right now, but since they have covered back to back games it is inflated.
I look for the young Kings to really put forth a big effort on their first road game of this east coast trip.

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Jimmy Boyd

Oct 29 '18, 7:35 PM in 44m
NBA | Kings vs Heat
Play on: UNDER 227½ -110

1* Free Pick on Kings/Heat UNDER
There's simply too much value here with the UNDER to pass up in Monday's NBA showdown between the Kings and Heat. I just feel we are seeing an inflated number in games involving Sacrament, as the OVER started out a perfect 4-0 with each of those 4 games seeing at least 238 points.
The last two have both went well under. They had a total of 220.5 against Memphis and neither team reached 100, as they combined for 189. Next time out against the Wizards the total was 236.5 and they ended up at 228.
Miami is a team that always fields a top tier defense under head coach Erik Spoelstra. Heat are holding teams to almost 6-points fewer than their season averages and have held opponents to a mere 40.8% shooting at home.
I know the Kings like to push the pace, but that's not a concern here. The UNDER is 25-9 in Miami's last 34 games under Spoelstra against an up-tempo team that averages 88 or more shots/game. UNDER is also 14-2 in Sacramento's last 16 vs teams who are scoring 110+ points/game. Take the UNDER!

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Mike Lundin

Oct 29 '18, 7:35 PM in 44m
NBA | Kings vs Heat
Play on: OVER 227 -104

#NBA FREE PICK FROM MIKE LUNDIN
**5-0 FREE PICK RUN ~ 17-7 SINCE SEPTEMBER 1**
The Miami Heat host the Sacramento Kings at American Airlines Arena Monday night, and I think we'll see a wide open high-scoring game.
This young Kings team has been surprisingly competitive at the start of the season, entering this game with a 3-3 record. The Kings defeated Washington 116-112 on Friday and have averaged 124 ppg through their first three away games. Miami is a bit banged up but off a solid 120-111 win against Portland and over is 9-3 in the Heat's last 12 vs. Western Conference teams.
Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Miami and 12-2 in the last 14 meetings overall.
Free pick on OVER.

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Mike Williams

Oct 29 '18, 8:05 PM in 1h
NBA | Raptors vs Bucks
Play on: Bucks +2 -110 at 5Dimes

1* on Bucks +2 -110

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Hunter Price

Oct 29 '18, 8:05 PM in 1h
NBA | Lakers vs Wolves
Play on: Lakers +1 -109 at GTBets

1* Free Pick on Lakers +1 -109

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John Martin

Oct 29 '18, 8:05 PM in 1h
NBA | Lakers vs Wolves
Play on: Lakers -2 -101 at pinnacle

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Los Angeles Lakers -2
The Lakers are off to just a 2-4 start this season. They have lost some close games as all four losses came by single-digits. And they’ve had to play without Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo due to suspension for several games. But now both Ingram and Rondo are back and the Lakers should start making some strides forward. The Timberwolves are a team in turmoil right now due to all the Jimmy Butler trade rumors. Andrew Wiggins has missed the past couple games with a quad injury and is uncertain to play tonight as well. The Timberwolves are just 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS this season. They are coming off a 30-point home loss to the Bucks and can’t be trusted right now. Give me the Lakers.

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Dustin Hawkins

Oct 29 '18, 8:05 PM in 1h
NBA | Lakers vs Wolves
Play on: Lakers -1 +100 at 5Dimes

Free Play on Lakers -1 +100