Thursday 11-1-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NCAAF

Week 10

Trend Report

Thursday, November 1

Northern Illinois @ Akron
Northern Illinois
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Northern Illinois's last 8 games
Northern Illinois is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

Akron
Akron is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Akron's last 5 games

Ohio @ Western Michigan
Ohio
Ohio is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ohio's last 5 games when playing Western Michigan

Western Michigan
Western Michigan is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Western Michigan is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Ohio

Temple @ Central Florida
Temple
Temple is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Temple is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

Central Florida
Central Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Central Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

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NCAAF

Week 10

Thursday’s games
Western Michigan won last three games with Ohio U by 6-35-21 points; teams last met in MAC title game two years ago. Bobcats scored 101 points in winning last two games, but they’re 1-3 on road, with only win by a point (-12) over hapless Kent State. Broncos had 6-game win streak snapped by Toledo LW, when Rockets ran all for 268 yards; WMU gave up 49-55-51 points in its three losses this year. Three of last four Ohio games stayed under total.

Northern Illinois won its last four games, three by 3 or fewer points; they won last game 7-6 at BYU Saturday, despite gaining only 204 yards. Under Carey, Huskies are 15-6 as road favorites, 1-0 this year. NIU won its last four games with Akron, by average score of 35-13; teams haven’t met since 2013. Zips won its last two games; they split two home games; under Bowden, Akron is 4-13 vs spread as home underdogs. Under is 4-1 in last five Akron games.

Central Florida is 7-0 with one win by less than 20 points (31-30 at Memphis); Knights are 9-4-1 in last 14 games as a home favorite. UCF is 3-2 in its last five games with Temple; underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in those games- they split two meetings here. Temple won its last three games, allowing 10 ppg, after a 2-3 start; since ’14, Owls are 11-2 vs spread as road underdogs, 2-0 this year. Under is 4-2 in last six Temple games, 4-0 in UCF’s last four. Knights allowed 490-496 TY in their last two games.

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 10

Thursday, November 1

Ohio @ Western Michigan

Game 309-310
November 1, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Ohio
82.259
Western Michigan
74.253
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio
by 8
68
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ohio
by 2 1/2
64 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Ohio
(-2 1/2); Over

Northern Illinois @ Akron

Game 311-312
November 1, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Northern Illinois
82.754
Akron
71.973
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Northern Illinois
by 11
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Northern Illinois
by 6
37 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Northern Illinois
(-6); Under

Temple @ Central Florida

Game 313-314
November 1, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Temple
85.817
Central Florida
105.504
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Central Florida
by 19 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Central Florida
by 10 1/2
62
Dunkel Pick:
Central Florida
(-10 1/2); Under

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College Football's Top ATS Teams:

1. Washington St 8-0 ATS
t2. Fresno St 7-1 ATS
t2. Georgia Southern 7-1 ATS
t2. UAB 7-1 ATS
t2. Utah St 7-1 ATS
t2. Virginia 7-1 ATS
t7. 8 teams tied at 6-2 ATS (Buffalo, BC, Florida, Florida Int, Iowa, Temple, Texas A&M, UL-Lafayette)


College Football's Worst ATS Teams:

t130. Navy 1-7 ATS
t130. Louisville 1-7 ATS
t130. Florida Atlantic 1-7 ATS
127. Connecticut 1-6-1 ATS
t125. Washington 2-7 ATS
t125. New Mexico St 2-7 ATS
t116. 9 teams tied at 2-6 ATS

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Temple at Central Florida
Joe Nelson


This week’s Thursday night ESPN game comes out of the American Athletic Conference with a pair teams that have matching 4-0 records in the AAC East.

Temple visits Central Florida in a game that could decide the division title as the Knights host Thursday night football looking to extend a 20-game winning streak.

Match-up: Temple Owls at Central Florida Golden Knights
Venue: Spectrum Stadium in Orlando, Florida
Time/TV: Thursday, November 1, 7:30 PM ET ESPN
Line: UCF -10½, Over/Under 61
Last Meeting: 2017, UCF (-12) 45, at Temple 19

A spotlight opportunity for Central Florida Thursday will give the team with the nation’s-longest winning streak a chance to make its case for College Football Playoff consideration in front of a larger audience. Going 13-0 last season, UCF is 7-0 this season for 20 consecutive wins since losing in bowl action in December of 2016. The Knights are 13-7 ATS in that span including 7-4 ATS in home games.

It has seemingly been an easy transition for former Missouri offensive coordinator Josh Heupel taking over the program after Scott Frost left for Nebraska after just two seasons in Orlando. The Knights needed a big comeback for a 31-30 win at Memphis but that has been the only drama on the field in the 7-0 start with every other win coming by at least 20 points.

UCF is up to #9 in both the AP and Coaches Polls but there is no realistic shot for UCF to get serious national playoff consideration. Not that it would have made a big difference but a road game at North Carolina was cancelled in September to deplete the schedule further as the only power conference win came at home against Pittsburgh. That 45-14 results looks a bit stronger at this point in the season with Pittsburgh looking like an a decent ACC team but unless there is major chaos in the major conferences down the stretch or several upsets on championship Saturday, it seems unlikely that a potential 12-0 UCF team will even be considered for the final four.

Making the assumption that the Knights will run the table is a big leap as the toughest AAC games of the season remain in a stacked November schedule starting this week. Home games with Navy and Cincinnati follow before a road finale at South Florida. UCF would then need to beat the West champion, likely Houston in the AAC title game.

Quarterback McKenzie Milton was a surprise scratch for the last game at East Carolina on October 20. Milton was discussed early in the season as potential Heisman candidate but his numbers this season haven’t come close to matching his great 2017 figures. He is averaging 1.2 fewer yards per pass while posting only 16 touchdowns after throwing 37 last season while not even a third of the way to last season’s rushing total. Information on his injury has been limited and he has been considered day-to-day this week. The Knights threw for just 111 yards without Milton in the win over East Carolina, leaning on the ground game with 316 rushing yards with freshman Daniel Mack taking over at quarterback.

Expectations were high for Temple this season in the second season under Geoff Collins. Losses to FCS Villanova and Buffalo started the season but the Owls have rallied to win five of the last six games with the only loss at Boston College. Wins over Maryland and Navy on the road were impressive and in the last game Temple snuck out a fortunate narrow win over Cincinnati to move to 4-0 in conference play.

Like UCF, Temple still has a tough remaining schedule as even if they win this game there would be no guarantee they could hold on to the division title with Cincinnati and South Florida close behind at 3-1. Temple still plays South Florida in mid-November and will also have a tough crossover game with West leader Houston next week.

Temple is also dealing with key injuries with running back Ryquell Armstead and defensive tackle Freddie Booth-Lloyd question marks this week. Armstead leads the team with 626 rushing yards despite missing the past two games and they have missed his production with the Owls posting only 3.8 yards per rush on the season but Armstead averaging 5.1 yards per carry. UCF is one of the nation’s top rushing teams with 5.8 yards per attempt and 261 yards per game as Armstead would be important in helping the Owls keep pace on the ground.

Temple is the surprise national leader in yards per pass attempt allowed defensively, surrendering only 4.5 yards per pass attempt as even if Milton plays, UCF is likely going to have to lean on the ground game. The Owls have 24 sacks and eight interceptions while allowing only nine passing touchdowns. Only Michigan has held opposing quarterbacks to a lower QB Rating this season.

Against a lighter schedule UCF also has very good numbers defending the pass. Frank Nutile took over at quarterback last season with success for the Owls but after a slow start sophomore Anthony Russo moved into the starting role for Temple. Russo has good size but has been mistake-prone with 10 interceptions in 191 pass attempts this season. Russo has been intercepted at least once in every game he has started but he also has eight passing touchdowns in his last three games while throwing for nearly 800 yards in those three conference wins.

Both teams had close calls in the last games played on October 20. Temple saw a 10-0 lead disappear hosting Cincinnati and trailed 17-10 most of the second half before tying the game in the final minute and winning in overtime. UCF’s 37-10 win over East Carolina was closer than it looked. Playing without Milton UCF led 23-10 through three quarters and caught a few big breaks late as East Carolina fumbled on the goal line with the ball returned for a touchdown the other way turning a potential one-score game into a 20-point lead. The Knights were actually out-gained 496-427 but had a 5-0 turnover advantage and still wound up narrowly covering as a heavy road favorite.

Last Season: After a 3-5 start to the season Temple won back-to-back games to start November before playing as a double-digit home underdog against undefeated UCF. Temple led 10-7 in the second quarter before UCF rattled off 24 straight points before halftime and eventually won 45-19. Temple actually had a 397-384 yardage edge in the game but had a 5-0 turnover deficit. That win moved the Knights to 10-0 before they turned in three straight seven-point wins over South Florida, Memphis, and Auburn to complete the perfect season.

Historical Trends:

-- These schools have met each of the last five years with UCF going 3-2 S/U and ATS.

-- Temple won the last meeting in Orlando with a 26-25 win in 2016 as a slight underdog.

-- Temple is 28-14 ATS since 2007 as a road underdog including going 2-0 ATS this season and 8-3 ATS since 2015.

-- UCF is 30-18 ATS as a home favorite since 2010, including going 22-13 ATS as a double-digit home favorite, with a 3-1 ATS mark in that role this season.

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Tech Trends - Week 10
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Nov. 1


OHIO at WESTERN MICHIGAN...Solich 8-2 last ten as visiting dog and 13-7 vs. line since LY.
Ohio, based on team trends.


NORTHERN ILLINOIS at AKRON...Zips just 4-10 vs. line last 13 at Infocision. But NIU just 4-7 last 11 as chalk. Huskies have covered first two on MAC road TY.
Slight to NIU, based on team trends.


TEMPLE at UCF...Road team has covered last 3 in series. Owls on 12-4 spread uptick since early 2017, and have covered 8 in a row on road. Also 5-1 last six as dog and covers in last five TY.
Temple, based on team trends.

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Dave Price

Nov 01 '18, 7:00 PM in 58m
NCAA-F | Northern Illinois vs Akron
Play on: Northern Illinois -6 -108 at 5Dimes

Dave’s Thursday Free Play:
1* on Northern Illinois -6
The Key: Northern Illinois opened the season with a brutal non-conference schedule with losses to Iowa, Utah and Florida State. The Huskies have been on fire in all other games and playing like a team that is ready to win the MAC. They are 5-0 in their other five games, which includes wins over Eastern Michigan and BYU on the road, and Ohio at home. Akron is not in the same class as Northern Illinois. The Zips were fortunate to win their last two games against Kent State (by 1) and Central Michigan (by 7). They don’t stand much of a chance of being competitive against the Huskies tonight. NIU is 19-4 ATS in its last 23 games following an upset win as an underdog. The Huskies are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Akron with all 4 wins coming by 7 points or more, and by an average of 22.5 PPG. The Huskies are 37-18-3 ATS in their last 58 road games. Take Northern Illinois.

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Info Plays

Nov 01 '18, 7:00 PM in 58m
NCAA-F | Northern Illinois vs Akron
Play on: Northern Illinois -5 -109 at GTBets

1* Free Play on Northern Illinois -5 -109

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Mark Wilson

Nov 01 '18, 7:00 PM in 58m
NCAA-F | Northern Illinois vs Akron
Play on: Northern Illinois -5 -110 at betonline

Free Play on Northern Illinois -5 -110

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John Ryan

Nov 01 '18, 7:00 PM in 58m
NCAA-F | Ohio vs Western Michigan
Play on: UNDER 65 -109

John Ryan Sports Research Report
@JohnRyanSports1

The Play and the Matchup
UNDER Ohio University Bobcats-Western Michigan Broncos (309-310)
Ohio U (5 - 3) at W Michigan (6 - 3)
Week 10 Thursday, 11/1/2018 7:00 PM

SIM grading and Recommended Strategy
Place a 5-star wager (3 to 10-star grading scale) on the ‘UNDER’ which the market has priced at 66.5-points.

SIM Projections and Results
Projection summary calls for the Bobcats to gain less than 200 passing yards and historically, the UNDER has gone 19-10-1 since 2013. When on the road, this situation improves to 11-5-1 for 68.8% winners. IN home games, the Broncos have produced a solid 8-4 UNDER mark when holding an opponent to fewer than 200 passing yards.

Ryan 10-Star Titans stand at a remarkable 15-5 ATS for 75% winners. They are the absolute strongest opportunities that his SIM Algorithms and Deep Learning programs can identify for you and are akin to Game of the Year status without the hype. His research report is a box score visualization filled with amazing projected data metrics and underscore why this is a play worthy of your risk capital.

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Brandon Lee

Nov 01 '18, 7:00 PM in 58m
NCAA-F | Ohio vs Western Michigan
Play on: Western Michigan +3 -110 at betonline

10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Western Michigan +3)
I'll take my chances here with the Broncos as a short home dog. I feel we are seeing a slight overreaction to what happened last time out for each team, with Ohio off the blowout win over Ball State and Western Michigan off the upset loss as a home favorite to Toledo.
Another reason I think we are seeing the Bobcats getting some love, is the fact that the Broncos just lost starting quarterback Jon Wassink to a season-ending injury. You hate to see it, but I was really impressed with how well true freshman Kaleb Eleby played in relief of Wassink. He completed 23 of 28 attempts with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions.
Eleby going to get the start and I think he’s in store for a big day against a Ohio defense that ranks 125th in the country against the pass, giving up 292.4 ypg. This is also a Western Michigan offense that can run the football. The Broncos are 34th in the nation, averaging 209.1 ypg on the ground.
Another thing to note about Ohio is they are just 1-3 on the road this season and the lone win was a mere 1-point at Kent State in a game they were favored by double-digits. The defense for the Bobcats has been especially bad on the road, where they are giving up 32.2 ppg and 462 ypg.
This is also a spot where Ohio has historically struggled against the number. The Bobcats are just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games off back-to-back conference wins by 10 or more points and have lost these games by 8.5 ppg. Ohio is also 2-10 ATS in their last 12 off a game where they scored 50 or more points and a mere 5-13 ATS on the road in Weeks 10 through 13 under head coach Frank Solich. Give me the Broncos +3!

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Jack Jones

Nov 01 '18, 7:05 PM in 1h
NBA | Clippers vs 76ers
Play on: UNDER 230 -105

Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: Clippers/76ers UNDER 230
This is a very high total between the Clippers and 76ers tonight. I think there’s value with the UNDER given that both teams are better defensively than they are getting credit for, and the series history suggests this number has been inflated.
The Clippers were the best defensive team in the NBA in the preseason, holding opponents to just 97 points pre game. Patrick Beverly dubbed his team “Clamp City” because of it. And the Clippers have played pretty well defensively thus far in the regular season, holding opponents to 42% shooting. The 76ers are giving up just 43.5% shooting in the regular season.
The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series. The Clippers and 76ers have combined for 210, 214 and 212 points in their last three meetings, respectively. That’s an average of just 212 combined points per game, which is 18 points less than tonight’s posted total of 230.
The UNDER is 4-1 in Clippers last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in 76ers last five home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Philly is 21-6 UNDER in its last 27 home games after a combined score of 235 points or more. The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

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Cole Faxon

Nov 01 '18, 7:30 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Temple vs Central Florida
Play on: Temple +11½ -110 at BMaker

FREE PLAY on Temple +11½ -110

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Bobby Conn

Nov 01 '18, 7:30 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Temple vs Central Florida
Play on: Temple +10½ +100 at betonline

1* Free Play on Temple +10½ +100

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Kenny Walker

Nov 01 '18, 7:30 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Temple vs Central Florida
Play on: Temple +10½ +100 at betonline

Free Pick on Temple