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4.5-Star Chiefs at Browns UNDER 51.5 - The Chiefs should feel no urgency to score here. They should adopt a conservative strategy and they should run the ball with a lead. The Browns have allowed a lot of yards this season and they have had a lot of trouble on offense recently. The play in the UNDER.
The evidence is strong. TD-plus favorites are 0-32 OU on grass when they are off a game as a favorite and they are facing a team that is off a loss and has allowed 355-plus yards of offense per game season-to-date. Thats 32 straight unders. See for yourself by running this SDQL text:
line <= -7 and surface=grass and p:F and oA(o:TY) >=355 and op:L and date>=20151000
A quick scan of the game listing reveals that the Chiefs were the TD-plus favorite in this spot in three of the 32 games. The final scores in those three games were 10-3, 17-13 and 10-16.
The Chiefs themselves are 0-12 OU as a favorite off a win as a favorite when they are facing a team that has averaged at least 17 ppg over their last two games. The SDQL text is:
team=Chiefs and F and p:WF and oA(passes)>=35 and oA(points,N=2)>=17 and date>=20151225
It is also worth mentioning that Kansas City is 0-11 OU on grass vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a home win in which fewer than 35 percent of their first downs were from third down. The SDQL here is:
team=Chiefs and surface=grass and NDIV and p:HW and p:3DM / p:FD <0.35 and season >= 2008
Shifting our focus to the Browns we see that they are 0-13 OU (-7.27 ppg) as a TD-plus home dog. The SDQL is a straightforward:
team=Browns and H and 7<=line and date>=20091210
David Njoku had zero fantasy points against the Steelers last week. This is an under indicator, as the Browns are 0-7 OU since the drafted Njoku in 2017 at home after any game in which he did not have a 20-plus yard reception. The SDQL for this one is:
team=Browns and H and Browns
avid Njoku
:longest reception<20 and season>=2017
Finally, Cleveland is 0-11 OU (-10.00 ppg) at home after a SU and ATS loss.
Gregg Williams is a hard-nosed defensive coach. He likely will not get a win in his first game as a head coach of the Browns. However, the team will play aggressively and with passion. Certainly it would not be unreasonable for Andy Reid to play conservatively to avoid injury to his players. Make the UNDER the play and it will probably be a good idea to get the current line of 51.5.
MTis FORECAST: Chiefs 20 BROWNS 16
4.5-Star Chiefs at Browns UNDER 51.5 - The Chiefs should feel no urgency to score here. They should adopt a conservative strategy and they should run the ball with a lead. The Browns have allowed a lot of yards this season and they have had a lot of trouble on offense recently. The play in the UNDER.
The evidence is strong. TD-plus favorites are 0-32 OU on grass when they are off a game as a favorite and they are facing a team that is off a loss and has allowed 355-plus yards of offense per game season-to-date. Thats 32 straight unders. See for yourself by running this SDQL text:
line <= -7 and surface=grass and p:F and oA(o:TY) >=355 and op:L and date>=20151000
A quick scan of the game listing reveals that the Chiefs were the TD-plus favorite in this spot in three of the 32 games. The final scores in those three games were 10-3, 17-13 and 10-16.
The Chiefs themselves are 0-12 OU as a favorite off a win as a favorite when they are facing a team that has averaged at least 17 ppg over their last two games. The SDQL text is:
team=Chiefs and F and p:WF and oA(passes)>=35 and oA(points,N=2)>=17 and date>=20151225
It is also worth mentioning that Kansas City is 0-11 OU on grass vs a non-divisional opponent when they are off a home win in which fewer than 35 percent of their first downs were from third down. The SDQL here is:
team=Chiefs and surface=grass and NDIV and p:HW and p:3DM / p:FD <0.35 and season >= 2008
Shifting our focus to the Browns we see that they are 0-13 OU (-7.27 ppg) as a TD-plus home dog. The SDQL is a straightforward:
team=Browns and H and 7<=line and date>=20091210
David Njoku had zero fantasy points against the Steelers last week. This is an under indicator, as the Browns are 0-7 OU since the drafted Njoku in 2017 at home after any game in which he did not have a 20-plus yard reception. The SDQL for this one is:
team=Browns and H and Browns
avid Njoku:longest reception<20 and season>=2017 Finally, Cleveland is 0-11 OU (-10.00 ppg) at home after a SU and ATS loss.
Gregg Williams is a hard-nosed defensive coach. He likely will not get a win in his first game as a head coach of the Browns. However, the team will play aggressively and with passion. Certainly it would not be unreasonable for Andy Reid to play conservatively to avoid injury to his players. Make the UNDER the play and it will probably be a good idea to get the current line of 51.5.
MTis FORECAST: Chiefs 20 BROWNS 16
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