Saturday 11-10-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

No. 2 Clemson Tigers at No. 25 Boston College Eagles (-17.5)

Unbeaten Clemson is facing a ranked team this week but is a hefty favorite as it works toward a fourth straight CFP appearance. The Tigers (9-0 SU, 5-4 ATS) have not messed around the past four games, going 4-0 SU and ATS by a whopping combined score of 240-36. In Week 10, Clemson boatraced Louisville 77-16 as 38-point home favorites.

Boston College has won three in row SU and four in a row ATS in the battle for second-best team in the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Eagles (7-2 SU and ATS) topped Virginia Tech 31-21 as 2-point road faves in Week 10.

“We took a large wager on Clemson as soon as we opened it up, and we went to -18,” Wilkinson said. “Then the whole betting market moved to -20, so we did as well. I think that’s the direction the line is going to keep heading, too. Boston College can’t compete with Clemson, even if the Eagles are at home. I think this line will be 21 or 22 by Saturday.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Oklahoma Sooners (-18)

Oklahoma needs to stay focused in the annual Bedlam game in order to remain in the CFP picture. The Sooners (8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS) survived a shootout with Texas Tech in Week 10, winning 51-46 laying 14 points on the road.

Oklahoma State won its first three games, but hasn’t been up to par since, losing four of six SU and ATS. The Cowboys (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) got a nice home win over Texas in Week 9, but tumbled at Baylor in Week 10, 35-31 giving 6 points.

“Sometimes instate rivalry games are competitive, but I don’t think that will be the case this weekend. However, 18 is a lot of points,” Wilkinson said. “Oklahoma State has had some good wins this season, but I don’t think the Cowboys have a chance at winning this one. We haven’t seen much action on it yet. I think the line is going to drop a little throughout the week, just because it’s so high and the Sooners and Cowboys are rivals.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

APELU OUT UNTIL BOWL SEASON

The Oregon Ducks will play out the remainder of the regular season without one of their top defensive options. Senior linebacker Kaulena Apelu suffered a small fracture in his leg and will miss the Ducks' final three Pac-12 games against Utah, Arizona State and Oregon State, though head coach Mario Cristobal says Apelu could return for Oregon's bowl game. Apelu was a stalwart on the Ducks' defense, recording 58 total tackles, five tackles for loss, two sacks and three passes defended. Sampson Niu will take over the middle linebacker spot in Apelu's place.

It's a major blow for an Oregon team going into Saturday's showdown with the Utes as a four-point underdog. Apelu's absence, in
tandem with Utah having outscored its previous two opponents 83-38 at home, makes the Utes a solid cover play.

BELL GETS THE CALL

Willie Taggart's rough first season at Florida State has taken another interesting turn with news that Taggart has ceded the offensive play-calling to coordinator Walt Bell. Taggart told reporters earlier this week that Bell was given the opportunity to call plays in Saturday's 47-28 loss against N.C. State, and impressed Taggart enough to earn another shot this weekend against host Notre Dame. Bell comes with an impressive pedigree, having called plays at Arkansas State and Maryland before arriving in Tallahassee. FSU comes into the weekend ranked outside the top 100 in scoring at 23.8 points per game.

It might take time for the Fighting Irish defense to adjust to a new play-caller on the other side, giving Florida State the edge in the early going. We like the Seminoles to surpass their first-quarter point total no matter which player out of Deondre Francois or James Blackman starts at quarterback.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tech Trends - Week 11
Bruce Marshall

Saturday, Nov. 10

TEMPLE at HOUSTON...Owls had covered last 6 prior to UCF and are 22-6 vs. line last 28 AAC games. Temple 15-5 last 20 as dog (2-1 TY). Cougs just 10-12 vs. spread for Applewhite since late 2016.
Temple, based on team trends.


MICHIGAN at RUTGERS... Rutgers got cover LY after Harbaugh beat Ash badly previous two years by 49-16 & 78-0. Harbaugh has covered 5 of last 6 TY but only 1-2 vs. spread away and just 2-6 vs. line last 8 away from Big House. Rut surprising 4-2 vs. points last six as Big Ten host.
Slight to Michigan, based on team trends.


VIRGINIA TECH at PITTSBURGH...Narduzzi has now covered 4 in a row after the Virginia win (all as a dog), taking 3 of those SU. Narduzzi 17-10 as dog since arriving in 2015. Disappointing VPI no covers last 4 or 5 of last 6. And Panthers have covered last three meetings.
Pitt, based on team trends.


CLEMSON at BOSTON COLLEGE...Dabo surging with wins and covers last four TY. BC, however, on 16-2 spread run in reg season, and 7-1 last 8 as dog. Dabo has run up scores on Addazio past two years.
Slight to Clemson, based on team trends.


OLE MISS at TEXAS A&M...Ole Miss has covered 5 of last 6 meetings (Freeze was 5-0 vs. line against Sumlin).
Slight to Ole Miss, based on series trends.


KENTUCKY at TENNESSEE...UKy got rare win in series LY but it was not easy, only 2 Ws vs. Vols since a win in 1984 with Jerry Claiborne. Stoops 0-3 as chalk TY, however, which drops him to 0-10 last 10 as favorite. Vols have covered 3 of last 4 for Pruitt.
Tennessee, based on extended series and team trends.


BYU at UMASS...Mass won in Provo LY. Sitake just 3-8 last 11 as chalk. Mass however on 3-6 spread slide TY.
Slight to UMass, based on team trends.


LIBERTY at VIRGINIA... Last 4 games of reg season, Mendenhall now 2-7 vs. line for Hoos after Pitt loss. Cavs had been 7-1 vs. line prior TY to Panther loss.
Slight to Virginia, based on recent trends.


TROY at GEORGIA SOUTHERN...Troy 6-1-1 vs. line last 8 TY, and 7-2 vs. spread last nine away from home. Though Southern has covered last four meetings. Eagles however 7-2 vs. line themselves TY.
Slight to Troy, based on team trends.


BAYLOR at IOWA STATE...Matt Campbell 6-2 vs. line TY, 22-8-1 last 31 on board since early 2016 for ISU. Campbell has covered last two vs. Baylor, which is 0-3-1 vs. line last four in series.
Iowa State, based on team and series trends.


NAVY at UCF...UCF now 6-2 vs. line TY, 5-0 vs. spread in Orlando vs. FBS-level foes TY. Mids only 2-7 vs. line TY.
UCF, based on recent trends.


TCU at WEST VIRGINIA...Frogs no covers last six TY, 2-10 vs. line since late 2017. WV has covered 4 of last 5 meetings.
WVU, based on recent and series trends.


MIAMI-FLORIDA at GEORGIA TECH...Canes 8-1 SU last nine vs. Paul Johnson, though Richt only 3-10 vs. spread since mid 2017. Also 1-6 vs. points last seven away from Hard Rock. Throw out games vs. Clemson and GT is 13-4-1 as dog since 2014.
Slight to Georgia Tech, based on recent trends.


KANSAS at KANSAS STATE...Bill Snyder has long owned this series but no covers last two years. Cats had won and covered previous 7 in Snyder II at K-State. Cats have covered last 3 at home TY though just 3-10 last 13 as home chalk.
K-State, based on extended series trends.


AKRON at EASTERN MICHIGAN...Zips no covers last four as MAC visitor, Bowden just 5-9-1 last 15 on board. EMU on 23-8-1 spread run since early 2016, though only 4-4 last 8 as Ypsilanti chalk.
Eastern Michigan, based on team trends.


MARYLAND at INDIANA...Terps 1-5 vs. line last six as Big Ten visitor. If Hoosiers chalk note 4-1 mark last five at home.
Slight to Indiana, based on team trends.


SMU at UCONN...UConn 1-7-1 vs. line TY, 0-4 vs. line at Pratt & Whitney. Edsall 2-8 vs. line at home since LY.
SMU, based on team trends.


NORTH CAROLINA at DUKE...Fedora actually 8-4 vs. line since late 2017 , 7-3 last ten as dog. Cutcliffe no covers last three at Durham TY.
UNC, based on team trends.


OKLAHOMA STATE at OKLAHOMA...Sooners have won and covered last three meetings. Lincoln Riley has also covered his last five Big 12 home games. OSU just 5-10-1 vs. points last 16 Big 12 games.
Oklahoma, based on team and series trends.


NORTHWESTERN at IOWA...Dog team 8-0-1 in Cat games TY! NU 4-0-1 as dog TY. Pat Fitz 11-3-1 as dog since 2016 and 9-1 last 10 as visiting dog. Ferentz however is 7-1 vs. line TY.
Northwestern, based on team trends.


USF at CINCINNATI...Charlie Strong just 3-11 vs. line last 13 reg-season games. Cincy 6-3 vs. line TY.
Cincy, based on team trends.


ARKANSAS STATE at COASTAL CAROLINA...ASU 4-10 vs. line since late 2017, and 2-5 last 7 vs. spread away from Jonesboro.
Coastal Carolina, based on team trends.


EAST CAROLINA at TULANE...Montgomery 8-23-1 vs. line with ECU since arriving in 2016. Pirates 2-10-1 vs. spread away that span. Willie Fritz 8-2 vs. spread at home since LY.
Tulane, based on team trend.


OREGON at UTAH...Utes 7-1 last 8 as home chalk. Ducks 1-7 vs. spread last 8 away from Eugene, though they have won and covered last two years vs. Utes. Ducks 2-6 last 8 as dog.
Utah, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON STATE at COLORADO...Bottom has dropped out for Buffs, on 4-game SU losing streak (1-3 vs. line) after Arizona loss. Though home team has won and covered handily last 3 in series. CU just 3-8 vs. spread last 11 at home. Leach 4-0 vs. spread away TY, 21-10 vs. points as visitor since 2013.
Washington State, based on team trends.


CHARLOTTE at MARSHALL... Herd 1-6 vs. spread last 7 at home. Doc just 5-12 last 17 as chalk. Charlotte current 4-0 spread run.
Charlotte, based on team trends.


NORTH TEXAS at OLD DOMINION...UNT only 1-3 vs. line last four TY. But ODU on 6-12 spread skid, 2-7-1 last ten vs. line at home.
North Texas, based on team trends.


BOWLING GREEN at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...BGSU 2-6-1 vs. line TY, 9-24-1 since late 2015 vs. line. CMU however no covers last four TY and 0-3 vs. points as MAC host TY.
Slight to Central Michigan, based on team trends.


COLORADO STATE at NEVADA...Bobo on 3-13 spread skid since mid 2017. Pack 7-2 vs. points TY.
Nevada, based on team trends.


OREGON STATE at STANFORD...OSU just 6-14-1 vs. points since LY (3-6 TY). Tree has failed to cover last 2 years vs. Beavs and Shaw just 5-11 vs. points as Farm chalk since late 2015.
Slight to Oregon State, based on team trends.


MTSU at UTEP...Miners have covered 5 of last 7 TY, but Stockstill 4-1 last five as chalk.
Slight to MTSU, based on team trends.


AUBURN at GEORGIA...Underdog side has covered last three reg season meetings. Kirby Smart just 5-9 vs. line as Athens chalk since taking over Dawgs in 2016.
Slight to Auburn, based on series trends.


WISCONSIN at PENN STATE...Badgers just 2-7 vs. line TY, though Paul Chryst 6-3 as dog since 2015. Wiscy has dropped last 2 away but still 11-3 vs. line as visitor since 2016. James Franklin no covers last 4 TY.
Wisconsin, based on extended trends.


MISSISSIPPI STATE at ALABAMA...Last Tide SU loss in series was Saban’s first year in 2–7 when losing 17-12 to Sly Croom’s MSU. Saban just 5-5-1 vs. spread at Tuscaloosa since LY. Bulldogs were 16-7 last 23 as dog for Dan Mullen but 0-1 in role for Moorhead. MSU 2-5 vs. line last seven as visitor.
Slight to Alabama, based on team trends.


NEW MEXICO at AIR FORCE...Series totally dominated by Bob Davie, who has won outright as dog last three and covered all six vs. Force since 2012. Note Falcs just 3-14 vs. spread since 2010 in games immediately after Army or Navy.
New Mexico, based on series trends.


VANDERBILT at MISSOURI...Derek Mason now has covered last two TY though just 3-10 vs. spread in SEC games since LY. Odom has won and covered last 2 vs. Mason.
Slight to Mizzou, based on team trends.


ILLINOIS at NEBRASKA...Frost working on four straight covers TY. Lovie 2-6 last 8 vs. spread as Big Ten road dog.
Nebraska, based on team trends.


PURDUE at MINNESOTA...Fleck just 4-10-1 vs. spread in Big Ten play since arriving with Gophers LY. Brohm 14-7 vs. spread since arriving at Purdue LY.
Purdue, based on team trends.


TULSA at MEMPHIS...Road team has covered last four in series. Montgomery 11-5 as visiting dog since 2015. Though Tigers have covered last five American home games and 8-4 last 12 laying DD.
Slight to Memphis, based on team trends.


SOUTH CAROLINA at FLORIDA...Cocks 10-1 vs. points last nine away from Williams-Brice. Gators no covers L2 TY.
Slight to South Carolina, based on team trends.


CAL at USC...Bears haven’t beaten Trojans SU since epic 2003 3-OT win at Berkeley, and no wins at Coliseum since 2000. SC 10-3 vs. points last 13 meetings. But Helton on 7-17 spread skid overall and 2-7 last 9 as Coliseum chalk. Wilcox 7-2 last 8 as dog and did cover vs. SC LY.
Slight to California, based on recent trends.


TEXAS at TEXAS TECH...Road team has won and covered last four. But Texas only 3-6 last nine vs. points in reg season.
Slight to Texas, based on series trends.


LSU at ARKANSAS...Hogs had given LSU trouble before 2016, covering 4 in a row, though Orgeron has gotten Porkers last two years. Orgeron 5-1 vs. points last six on SEC road.
LSU, based on team trends.


SAN JOSE STATE at UTAH STATE...SJSU 4-1 L5 vs. line away. Utags however 7-1-1 vs. line TY and 3-0-1 at Logan.
Utah State, based on team trends.


APPALACHIAN STATE at TEXAS STATE... App 5-1 last six vs. points away from Boone. Tex State working on four straight covers, though just 5-9 vs. line last 14 at San Marcos.
App State, based on team trends.


GEORGIA STATE at ULL...Ragin’ Cajuns on 5-game spread win streak. GS 1-7 vs. line last 8 TY, and 0-4 as road dog.
ULL, based on recent trends.


WKU at FAU... Lane Kiffin just 2-7 vs. line TY but still 7-4 vs. spread as home chalk since LY. Sagging WKU 1-8 SU TY and now working on three straight spread Ls after MTSU loss.
FAU, based on team trends.


ULM at SOUTH ALABAMA...Jags 8-4 vs. spread last 12 CUSA games. ULM 3-8 last 11 vs. line. Host team has covered last two.
South Alabama, based on team trends.


RICE at LA TECH...Skip just 2-3 as chalk in 2018 but has bombed Rice the past four years, winning and covering all by 14 or more.
La Tech, based on series trends.


FIU at UTSA...Roadrunners on 3-14 spread skid. Butch Davis on 11-5 spread uptick in reg season since mid 2017.
FIU, based on team trends.


FLORIDA STATE at NOTRE DAME...Noles 3-6 vs. line for Taggart and 7-13-2 vs. points since LY. FSU only 1-5 last six as dog. But Irish only 4-8-1 last 13 vs. line reg season and no covers last seven laying DD.
Slight to Florida State, based on team trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at UAB...Blazers have covered last seven and 15-3-1 last 19 vs. line reg season. Plus 10-0-1 vs. line L11 at home.
UAB, based on team trends.


OHIO STATE at MICHIGAN STATE... Urban no covers last five TY. Dantonio 3-2 vs. line in series last five years though was crushed 48-3 LY. MSU 20-8 as dog since 2011 (1-1 TY).
Michigan State, based on team trends.


UCLA at ARIZONA STATE...Herm 3-1 vs. line at home TY, Sun Devils 14-5 vs. spread at Tempe since late 2015.
Arizona State, based on team trends.


UNLV at SAN DIEGO STATE...Road team has covered last four in series. Aztecs 0-4 as home chalk TY. Sanchez no covers last two away TY but is 2-2 in role and Rebs 23-10 as road dog since 2012.
UNLV, based on team and series trends.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

National Title contenders with winning streaks of 8 or more games – Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, Notre Dame

There's a real good chance we see those four teams as the CFB playoff selection committee's Top 4 this week, as Michigan should jump up into that 4th spot with LSU eliminated now. It shouldn't be surprising to see teams that are running the table in the mix to win it all, but all four of those squads went 4-0 ATS this past week. Alabama's got the longest SU winning streak of the group (11), followed by Notre Dame (10), Clemson (9), and Michigan (8). And it wouldn't be a piece on current winning streaks without a shout out to UCF's 21 straight wins, as the Knights continue to lobby for their inclusion among the nation's best teams.

Alabama and Notre Dame survived tough road tests against LSU and Northwestern respectively, while Clemson and Michigan put a woodshed beating on Louisville and Penn State respectively. All four of them enter this week as favorites of -18 or more currently, with Clemson and Alabama laying that kind of chalk against ranked foes again. Clemson's game is likely going to be the tougher one of the two, if for no other reason than they are on the road, and while it may already seem like a foregone conclusion that all four of those playoff contenders will walk away with SU wins this week, the point spread is always the great equalizer and it may get tougher and tougher to back these teams at such big numbers going forward.

It will be interesting to see if any of them have their point spreads fall below that key number of -17 throughout the week, and that's definitely something I'll be keeping my eye on up until kick-off. Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, and Notre Dame are a combined 23-13 ATS this year so it's not like they haven't padded many a bankroll already. And then when you throw in Alabama's perfect 9-0 ATS mark in first halves, these numbers are probably more likely to go up before they come down. Eventually there will be a point where some buyback could occur on those big 'dogs if that's the case, and then it's up to you to determine where you believe the value lies. That's why it always helps to set your own lines if you can, using them as a comparison point to help with your handicapping regarding powerhouse programs like these with huge lines to cover.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Who's Not

Navy and Louisville – Worst ATS records in the country (1-8 ATS) and owners of the longest losing streaks in their respective conferences

Last weekend may have been billed as “Showdown Saturday” in college football with all the big matchups we had, but a game that definitely didn't go unnoticed was the UTEP/Rice game which was a battle between the two longest losing streaks in the land. UTEP managed to snap their 20-game losing run by beating the Rice Owls – who now own the nation's longest losing streak at nine games – to avoid getting placed in this section today, as it's the longest losing streaks in the ACC and American conferences that get the attention here.

Louisville (ACC) and Navy (American) have each lost six straight contests coming into their respective matchups this week, but more importantly their 1-8 ATS mark has been burning bettor's money all year long. Louisville catching nearly 40 points was nowhere near enough against Clemson this past weekend, while Nave was blanked 42-0 by the Cincinnati Bearcats. That's seven straight ATS defeats for this proud Navy program that is void of significant talent this year, and with a trip to UCF on deck this weekend, I don't think we will see too many looking to take the +25.5 points with Navy that the Midshipmen are currently getting.

Louisville has lost four in a row against the number as they've allowed 56 or more points in three of their past four games. A regime change is likely coming for the Cardinals who clearly weren't prepared for life after QB Lamar Jackson, and this week's road test against a ranked Syracuse squad isn't likely to be fun either (Louisville is +21.5 currently).

These are probably two games where we will see the lines move in favor of the favorites, so if you like to bet against bad teams, I'd suggest getting your money down early.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams

Nov 10 '18, 12:00 PM in 24m
NCAA-F | Navy vs Central Florida
Play on: Navy +24 -107 at 5Dimes

1* on Navy +24 -107

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doug Upstone

Nov 10 '18, 12:00 PM in 24m
NCAA-F | Maryland vs Indiana
Play on: OVER 55 -108

On Saturday, Play Over on teams like Maryland when the total is between 49.5 and 56, after one or more straight up losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), playing a marginal losing team. In the 26 seasons, the OVER is 28-6, 82.4 percent.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker

Nov 10 '18, 12:00 PM in 24m
NCAA-F | BYU vs UMass
Play on: UMass +14 -105 at 5Dimes

Free Pick on UMass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Nov 10 '18, 12:00 PM in 24m
NCAA-F | Kansas vs Kansas State
Play on: Kansas State -10 -110 at betonline

1* Free Pick on Kansas State -10 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Nov 10 '18, 12:00 PM in 24m
NCAA-F | Vanderbilt vs Missouri
Play on: Vanderbilt +16 -101 at 5Dimes

Dave’s Saturday Free Play:
1* on Vanderbilt +16
The Key: This is a very favorable spot for Vanderbilt and a bad one for Missouri. The Commodores are coming off their bye week, which followed up a 45-31 win at Arkansas. And they still need 2 more wins to get to a bowl game. Missouri is coming off its huge upset win at Florida last week by a final of 38-17. And now this line has been inflated with the Commodores catching a whopping 16 points. The Commodores are 7-0 ATS off a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons. Vanderbilt is 34-13 ATS in its last 47 road games off a road game. Take Vanderbilt.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Freddy Wills

Nov 10 '18, 12:00 PM in 24m
NCAA-F | Navy vs Central Florida
Play on: Navy +24½ -110 at pinnacle

Navy +24.5 1.1% Free Play 12PM ET ESPN2
Navy is a dangerous team as a 20+ point dog, because as a team that runs the triple option they limit possessions. Since 1980 Navy is 34-14 ATS as a 20+ point dog, and when you combine that stat with all 3 service academies they are 69-32-3 ATS. Army was in this situation at Oklahoma as a 29 point dog earlier this season and nearly pulled the upset.
Navy has faced a much challenging schedule so I think we have some hidden value in the line when you consider they have faced an average opponent defense ranking 56th in yards per play allowed compared to UCF’s 74th. They have faced an average opponent offense ranking 50th in YPP, while UCF has faced #70. So I know the stats look like UCF should probably be a 35 point favorite, but put that into consideration here.
I understand this is a bad Navy team, but they still have the triple option that is challenging for a young defense like Central Florida to prepare for. Central Florida ranks 73rd vs. the run, and I think Navy can really hold onto the ball and limit the # of possessions in this game. Navy has had 48+ rushes in nearly every game, and those are the type of games that UCF is in closer battles. Against Temple last week they gave up 46 rushes for 226 yards and won by only 12, and that game was closer early. Against Memphis they gave up 52 carries for 281 yards and they won by only 1, and earlier in the year they were in a back and forth game that they ultimately won by 20 against FAU who ran the ball 50x for 320 yards. UCF has a bigger game next week they have to be looking ahead to against Cincinnati, and Navy was a 23 point dog on a neutral field to Notre Dame and covered just 2 weeks ago. Are we saying UCF is as good as Notre Dame?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Info Plays

Nov 10 '18, 12:00 PM in 24m
NCAA-F | South Carolina vs Florida
Play on: South Carolina +6½ -110 at 5Dimes

1* Free Play on South Carolina +6½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Sawyer

Nov 10 '18, 12:00 PM in 24m
NCAA-F | Maryland vs Indiana
Play on: Indiana -1 -110 at pinnacle

Take the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points versus the Maryland Terrapins. Maryland (5-4) looks to bounce-back from their 24-3 loss to Michigan State last week. The Terrapins have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in the month of November. Maryland has also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games on the road. Indiana (4-5) looks to bounce-back from their 38-31 upset loss at Minnesota two weeks ago. The Hoosiers return home where they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 home games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. And while Maryland averages only 125 passing YPG, Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams that do not average more than 125 passing YPG. Take Indiana minus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Nov 10 '18, 12:00 PM in 24m
NCAA-F | Illinois vs Nebraska
Play on: Nebraska -17 -111 at pinnacle

10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Nebraska -17)
I'll take my chances here with the Cornhuskers to cover the big number at home against a bad Illinois team. I think a lot of people are going to assume Nebraska won’t show up off that close loss to Ohio State, especially now that they no longer have a shot at making a bowl game. It’s definitely a possibility, but I got a good feeling this team will continue to play extremely hard over their final 3 games.
It’s safe to say that this season didn’t go as planned for Nebraska. They thought new head coach Scott Frost was going to step in and magically make them a title contender or at least respectable in the Big Ten West. The Cornhuskers shockingly started the season 0-6 before finally breaking through with a 53-28 win over Minnesota. That came on the heels of blowing a game at Northwestern the previous time out.
I just think this team is working towards a larger goal and are motivated to finish the season strong and build up some momentum for next year. They are also going to have the best player on the field Saturday in freshman quarterback Adrian Martinez, who has been every bit as good as advertised.
It just so happens this team started to play better when he finally got comfortable within the offense. He’s been sensational over the last 6 games and just put on quite the show against Ohio State, throwing for 266 yards and a score, while rushing for 72 yards and a touchdown. He’s going to be up against one of the worst defenses in the country, as Illinois enters ranked 123rd against the run (240.3 ypg) and 121st against the pass (284.4 ypg).
I know that Nebraska’s defense hasn’t been great this year and that’s probably a big reason why people aren’t willing to lay the points with them here. As is the case with a lot of bad defensive teams, they tend to make a few more big plays at home. They are only giving up 3.5 yards/carry against the run at home and if they can take away the run game from Illinois, the Fighting Illini will struggle to score.
If Nebraska’s offense has it’s way and the defense gets some stops early, the Cornhuskers can jump out to a big lead. Illinois is not a team that is built to play from behind. The Fighting Illini rank 114th in the country in passing (166.6 ypg). That also makes the backdoor cover a lot less likely. Give me Nebraska -17.