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7-Unit Play. #511. Take Chicago +10.5 vs New Orleans (Wednesday November 7 @ 8:05p.m.)
The Chicago Bulls have played some good basketball the last four games, hanging tough with the likes of Denver, Indy, and Houston, while beating the Knicks on the road. Now in this spot, they travel to New Orleans who are back at home after going 0-5 on a receive five-game road trip. The Pels should play better in this spot, but we believe the number is far too high and that the Bulls will be excited to play this game, thinking they can get back-to-back wins. Look, the Pelicans simply don't play any defense, as they've given up at least 115 points in six of their last seven games. The Bulls meanwhile can in fact score points, and they can also lock down on defense when the time comes. Take away the 149 points they gave up to Golden State (cuz Golden State does that to most teams) and they've held opponents to under 110 points in four of their last 5 games. We like the way the Bulls are playing and the trends are in their favor. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when allowing 100 or more points in their previous game, and 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win. The Pels are just 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an SU loss, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings vs Chicago at home.
Tables are set to turn tonight in DeKalb when Northern Illinois hosts Toledo in a critical MAC West battle that could very well decide who is playing at Ford Field for the MAC crown on November 30th.
Last year the Rockets won a 27-17 decision at the Glass Bowl that kept NIU out of the title game and saw Toledo go on to rep the West Division and beat Akron for the MAC Crown.
Things change in this one, as the Huskies defense will decide the outcome of this game. NIU has allowed just over 21 points per game for the year, and tonight they will either be facing the injured Mitch Guadagni who is dealing with an injury to his throwing shoulder and has to miss the past couple of games, or it will be Eli Peters who was intercepted 4 times in last week's win over a bad Ball State team.
If the Cardinals were able to force 4 picks, imagine what the Huskies defense will be able to do on their home field tonight!?!?!
Northern Illinois has not lost a conference game yet - 5-0 with 4 covers in those victories - and they have done battle this year with some "big names" in Iowa, Utah, Florida State at BYU in their out-of-conference schedule.
Northern Ill is not as flashy as Toledo on offense, but with the defense they possess, they don't have to be. Soph quarterback Marcus Childers will look to protect the football, take his shots when they are there, and then turn it over to the defense to force a few ill-timed turnovers that will lead to a "double-revenge" win and cover for the home team, as they stay on track for Ford Field at the end of this month.
DWAYNE BRYANT
WEDNESDAY, November 7, 2018
NBA -- 7:35 PM ET
[507] San Antonio Spurs at [508] Miami Heat
PLAY: OVER 217.5 (-105)
BET SIZE: 3%
My basketball totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data, history involving similar games, and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.
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