Wednesday 11-14-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Tech Trends - Week 12
Bruce Marshall

Wednesday, Nov. 14

BUFFALO at OHIO... Solich 14-8 vs. line since LY and has covered last six vs. FBS foes at Athens. Bulls however 8-2-1 vs. spread last 11 away from home and 8-2 last ten on board. Home team has won and covered last five in series.
Slight to Ohio, based on series trends.


MIAMI-OHIO at NORTHERN ILLINOIS... NIU has switched gears and won last 6 SU, covering 5 of those, but Miami on 6-1 spread run. Huskies still just 2-5 last 7 vs. line as MAC host. RedHawks have covered 3 of last 4 away TY.
Slight to Miami-Ohio, based on team trends.

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Wednesday's MAC Action
Brian Edwards

Bettors have more mid-week MACtion on tap with Wednesday’s doubleheader. Let's break down both contests before exploring some national topics in Bonus Nuggets below.

**Buffalo at Ohio**

-- As of early this morning, most betting shops had Ohio (6-4 straight up, 6-4 against the spread) installed as a two-point home favorite with a total of 66. The Bulls were +110 on the money line (risk $100 to win $110).

-- Ohio is undefeated in four home games with a 3-1 spread record. Frank Solich’s 14th team in Athens saw its three-game winning streak snapped in last week’s 30-28 loss at Miami (OH.) as a 4.5-point road favorite. The 58 combined points slithered ‘under’ the 59-point total. After scoring on Maleek Irons’ three-yard TD run to draw first blood last Tuesday in Athens, the RedHawks scored 28 unanswered points to take a 21-point lead into intermission. Ohio would rally, however, trimming the deficit to 14 on Nathan Rourke’s nine-yard TD pass to Papi White with 2:32 left in the third quarter. Then with 9:14 remaining, the Bobcats blocked a punt that was scooped up by Dylan Connor and returned 28 yards for a score. Ohio was buried deep at its own 1-yard line and three players later, Miami’s Doug Costin sacked Rourke for a safety. The Bobcats would get the ball back and get to within 30-28 on Rourke’s 18-yard scoring strike Andrew Meyer. After a stop, Ohio got to Miami’s 45 but Rourke’s Hail Mary on the games final play was unanswered.

-- Ohio’s stretch of four consecutive covers also came to an end. Even worse, the Bobcats’ MAC record fell to 4-2 to leave it two games back of Buffalo in the East. They’ll need to win back-to-back contests to close the regular season and hope Bowling Green can upset Buffalo next week.

-- Rourke completed 16-of-27 passes for 163 yards and two TDs without an interception in the loss at Miami. A.J. Ouellette had 168 rushing yards on 15 attempts, while White had five receptions for 44 yards and one TD. Ouellette had three catches for 29 yards.

-- Rourke, the junior QB who was a second-team All-MAC selection in 2017, has the MAC’s highest QB Rating (163.66). He has completed 62.3 percent of his throws for 1,932 yards with a 19/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Rourke has also rushed for 653 yards and eight TDs, averaging 6.5 yards per carry.

-- Ouellette is third in the MAC in rushing yards (777), fourth in TD runs (eight) and ninth in YPC average (5.4). Irons has run for 613 yards and seven TDs with a 6.4 YPC average. He has five catches for 34 yards and one TD, while Ouellette has 16 receptions for 146 yards and one TD.

-- Ohio is ranked 12th in the nation in scoring (39.3 points per game), 19th in rushing yards and 29th in total offense.

-- Buffalo (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) is a perfect 4-0 both SU and ATS in four road assignments this season. The Bulls are on a five-game winning streak both SU and ATS since suffering their only loss of the year in a 42-13 setback vs. Army as a 7.5-point home ‘chalk.’ They’ve won four of the five games by 14 points or more and all five by at least seven points. They’re off last Tuesday’s 48-14 win over Kent St. as 17-point home favorites. Buffalo darted out to a 21-0 lead at the end of the first quarter, led 34-0 at intermission and 48-0 going into the final stanza. The Golden Flashes got a pair of fourth-quarter TDs to avoid taking cream-cheese treatment and make the score look a tad more respectable. True freshman RB Jaret Patterson stole the show by turning 18 carries into 187 rushing yards and two TDs. QB Tyree Jackson threw for 111 yards and one TD without an interception, in addition to rushing for a score.

-- Buffalo can clinch the MAC’s Eastern Division with a win in this spot. Even if the Bulls come up short, they’ll still go to the MAC Championship Game if they can win at Bowling Green next week.

-- Buffalo is led by Jackson, the 6’7” junior signal caller who has completed 56.1 percent of his passes for 2,338 yards with a 24/8 TD-INT ratio. Jackson also has 95 rushing yards and six TDs. He has two prime targets in K.J. Osborn and Anthony Johnson. Osborn has 45 catches for 761 yards and six TDs, while Johnson has 35 receptions for 699 yards and nine TDs.

-- Patterson has rushed for a team-best 728 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 6.0 YPC. Kevin Marks has 616 rushing yards for eight scores with a 5.0 YPC.

-- Although Lance Leipold’s squad lost at home to Army, Buffalo did post non-conference wins at Temple (36-29) and at Rutgers (42-13).

-- Buffalo has been a road underdog on Leipold’s watch 18 times during his four-year tenure, producing a 7-8-1 spread record. However, the Bulls are 2-0 ATS in a pair of such spots this year and 5-1-1 in their past seven games as road ‘dogs.

-- When these schools collided at UB Stadium last year on Nov. 24, Buffalo captured a 31-24 win as a 6.5-point home underdog. The 55 combined points hit right on the total for a push. Jackson led the Bulls by throwing for 294 yards and two TDs without an interception. Emmanuel Reed’s one-yard TD run untied the game and provided the winning points with 8:10 remaining. Johnson had six receptions for 155 yards and two TDs. Rourke completed 15-of-30 passes for 265 yards with one TD and one interception. The Ohio QB rushed for 49 yards and two TDs on 16 attempts.

-- The home team has won eight games in a row in this rivalry and has covered the number in five straight encounters.

-- The ‘over’ has hit in back-to-back Buffalo games to improve to 7-3 overall and 3-1 in its road contests. The Bulls have watched their games average combined scores of 58.7 PPG.

-- The ‘over’ is 5-4-1 overall for the Bobcats, 2-1-1 in their home outings. They’ve seen their games average combined scores 66.8 PPG.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois**

-- As of early this morning, most books had Northern Illinois (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) installed as a 6.5-point home ‘chalk’ with a total of 48. The RedHawks were +200 on the money line (risk $100 to win $200).

-- NIU clinched the MAC West to garner a spot in the conference’s championship game with last week’s 38-15 win over Toledo as a 3.5-point home favorite. Since losing 37-10 at FSU on Sept. 22, the Huskies have won six games in a row while compiling a 5-1 spread record in the process. They’re 6-0 in MAC play and won a 7-6 decision at BYU last month. NIU took its two other L’s at Iowa (33-7) and vs. Utah (17-6).

-- Rod Carey’s club has won three of its four home games while going 2-2 ATS. The Huskies covered the spread in their only home loss to the Utes, who needed a pick-six late in the fourth quarter to put the game on ice. Nevertheless, NIU still took the money as a 12.5-point home ‘dog. The Huskies are 1-2 ATS as home favorites this year, 12-15 ATS in 27 such spots since Carey took over in 2013.

-- Sophomore QB Marcus Childers has connected on 57.4 percent of his passes for 1,383 yards with a 10/6 TD-INT ratio. He’s run for 328 yards and five TDs. Tre Harbison paces NIU in rushing with 804 yards and four TDs with a 5.5 YPC average. Marcus Jones has 478 rushing yards, three rushing scores and a 5.8 YPC average.

-- Childers has a pair of primary targets in Jauan Wesley and D.J. Brown. Wesley has 42 receptions for 473 yards and two TDs, while Brown has caught 41 balls for 351 yards and three TDs. Brown also has 81 rushing yards and one TD on 14 carries for a 5.8 YPC average.

-- Miami (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) is hoping to win its next two games to get bowl eligible for the second time in three years. As previously noted, the RedHawks won a tight 30-28 decision over Ohio last week as home underdogs. Gus Ragland connected on 20-of-32 passes for 199 yards and one TD without a pick against the Bobcats. Alonzo Smith ran for 94 yards and two TDs on 29 attempts, while Kenny Young turned 15 touches into 105 all-purpose yards and one TD.

-- Miami has lost three of its five road games outright, but it has gone 3-2 versus the number. The RedHawks are 2-2 ATS in four games as road underdogs this year, 15-9 ATS in 24 such instances during Chuck Martin’s five-year tenure.

-- Ragland, the senior QB, has enjoyed an outstanding career. He has started 26 games and posted a 55/11 TD-INT. Ragland has 864 career rushing yards and 12 TDs. In Miami’s past four games, Ragland has thrown seven TD passes without being picked off. After the RedHawks started 0-3, Ragland has led his team to a 6-1 spread record while throwing 13 TD passes compared to merely one interception. His senior could’ve been better if not for the season-ending loss of senior WR James Gardner, who was a third-team All-MAC selection in 2016 and a first-team All-MAC choice last season. Gardner went down in a 26-3 loss at Minnesota in Week 3. He had 12 receptions for 157 yards at that point.

-- Smith has rushed for 499 yards and six TD with a 4.8 YPC average. Young has 296 rushing yards and four TDs while averaging 6.6 YPC. Ragland has run for 196 yards and five TDs.

-- Jack Sorenson has a team-best 43 receptions for 629 yards and two TDs, and Young has caught 41 balls for 365 yards and four TDs.

-- Miami will be without three starters on defense, including senior NT Nate Trawick, senior LB Junior McMullen and senior DB De’Andre Montgomery. Another senior starter, Deondre Daniels, has missed five consecutive games and is ‘questionable’ at NIU.

-- Miami has lost three one-possession games, including a 40-39 home loss to Western Michigan and a 31-30 overtime loss at Army.

-- NIU has been victorious in seven of the past eight head-to-head meetings between these MAC adversaries, but the RedHawks have covered the spread at a 5-1 ATS clip in the last six encounters. They were double-digit underdogs in each of those instances. Miami’s five straight covers ended last year when NIU won by a 45-12 count in Oxford as a 17.5-point road ‘chalk.’ -- The ‘under’ is 8-2 overall for the Huskies, 4-0 in its home games. They’ve watched their games average combined scores of 42.1 PPG.

-- The ‘over’ is 6-4 overall for Miami, 4-1 in its five road assignments. The RedHawks have seen their contests average combined scores of 56.0 PPG.

-- ESPNU will have the broadcast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Duke’s second-leading tackler Dylan Singleton underwent season-ending ankle surgery this past Sunday after sustaining a fracture in last week’s 42-35 home win over UNC. The Blue Devils, who are big underdogs Saturday at Clemson, have won outright in all four of their games as road ‘dogs this year. They’ve won at Northwestern, at Baylor, at Georgia Tech and at Miami.

-- Maryland QB Kasim Hill (9/4 TD-INT) tore his ACL last week for the second time in 14 months. He had started all 10 games for the Terrapins, who will turn to Tyrrell Pigrome as their starter when they host Ohio State.

-- According to a report from ABC’s affiliate in Boulder, fifth-year Colorado head coach Mike MacIntyre will be fired at season’s end. The Buffaloes’ AD denied the report on Tuesday afternoon. There are already job openings at Bowling Green, Kansas, Louisville and Maryland. I think Alabama OC Mike Locksley will get the Maryland gig. I doubt Purdue’s Jeff Brohm would turn down his alma mater, Louisville, but he does have Purdue on the rise and a superstar in true freshman Rondale Moore to build around for at least two more seasons. If Brohm passes on the U of L gig, the school might go back after Charlie Strong at USF. Todd Graham and Les Miles have expressed interest in the KU job (talk about desperation mode!).

-- Virginia Tech junior DE Houshon Gaines will miss the rest of the season due to a torn ACL. Gaines had recorded a team-high 4.5 sacks.

-- Georgia Tech has won five of its past six games both SU and ATS. The Yellow Jackets, who lost outright to their first three FBS foes and started 0-4 ATS, will welcome Virginia to The Flats in Midtown Atlanta on Saturday.

-- South Carolina senior LB Bryson Allen-Williams is out for the last three games of the regular season after undergoing ankle surgery. The Gamecocks are hopeful that he might be able to return for a bowl game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels

Nov 14 '18, 7:00 PM in 55m
NCAA-F | Buffalo vs Ohio
Play on: OVER 65 -107

Free Play on Buffalo vs Ohio over 65 -107

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Cole Faxon

Nov 14 '18, 7:00 PM in 55m
NCAA-F | Buffalo vs Ohio
Play on: UNDER 66½ +100

FREE PLAY on Buffalo/Ohio under 66½ +100

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Jimmy Boyd

Nov 14 '18, 7:00 PM in 55m
NCAA-B | Louisiana-Monroe vs Michigan State
Play on: Michigan State -25 -108 at 5Dimes

1* Free NCAAB Pick on Michigan State Spartans -25
A lot of people might be tempted to grab the points with the Warhawks, considering they are getting 25 points after only losing by 10 as a 19-point dog at Texas last time out. No disrespect to the Longhorns, but they aren't on the same level as Tom Izzo and the Spartans.
After losing to Kansas in their opener, Michigan State crushed Florida Gulf Coast 106-82, covering as a 22.5-point favorite. It could have been a lot worse, as the Spartans had a 59-35 edge at the half before calling off the dogs.
The biggest reason ULM was able to keep it close against Texas was the Longhorns shot a miserable 26 of 62 (41.9%) from the field. I can assure you the Warhawks won't be keeping this one within 10-points if they only put 55 on the board. Look for Michigan State's offense to be too much for ULM to handle.
Spartans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games after playing their previous against a non-conference opponent and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 at home off a win by 15 or more. Warhawks are 0-6 ATS last 6 off a road cover where the team lost straight up as a dog. Take Michigan State!

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Mark Wilson

Nov 14 '18, 7:00 PM in 55m
NCAA-F | Buffalo vs Ohio
Play on: Buffalo +2 -105 at BMaker

Free Play on Buffalo +2 -105

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Info Plays

Nov 14 '18, 7:00 PM in 55m
NCAA-F | Buffalo vs Ohio
Play on: Ohio +1 -110 at 5Dimes

1* Free Play on Ohio +1 -110

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Frank Sawyer

Nov 14 '18, 7:00 PM in 55m
NCAA-F | Buffalo vs Ohio
Play on: UNDER 67½ -110

Take Under the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bulls and the Ohio Bobcats. Buffalo (9-1) has won five straight games with their 48-14 win versus Kent State last Tuesday. The Bulls go back on the road where they have played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Buffalo has also played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog. Ohio (6-4) comes off an upset 30-28 loss at Miami (OH) as a 4.5-point favorite last Wednesday. The Bobcats have then seen the Under go 14-6-1 in their last 21 games after a point spread loss. Ohio has also played 4 straight games Under the Total at home against teams with a winning record on the road. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

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Steve Janus

Nov 14 '18, 7:00 PM in 55m
NCAA-F | Buffalo vs Ohio
Play on: UNDER 66½ -102

1* Free Sharp Play on Buffalo vs Ohio under 66½ -102
My money is on the UNDER 66.5 in Wednesday's MAC football showdown between Ohio and Buffalo. This had the makings of basically a playoff game for the MAC East title until Ohio was upset last week at Miami,OH. Now the Bobcats not only have to win this game, but they also need Buffalo to lose to Bowling Green, which simply isn't going to happen. Falcons are 1-5 in league play and 2-8 overall. I'm sure the Bulls would prefer to just take care of business tonight. I think both teams bring it and as good as the Buffalo offense has been, this Ohio defense is really good and should be able to keep them in check, which in turn should keep this game well below the number. Bet the UNDER 66.5!

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Bobby Conn

Nov 14 '18, 7:35 PM in 1h
NBA | Bulls vs Celtics
Play on: UNDER 210 -105

1* Free Play on Bulls/Celtics under 210 -105

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Capping Computer

Nov 14 '18, 7:35 PM in 1h
NBA | Pistons vs Raptors
Play on: UNDER 222½ -110

1* Computer Pick on Pistons vs Raptors under 222½ -110

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Stephen Nover

Nov 14 '18, 7:35 PM in 1h
NBA | Bulls vs Celtics
Play on: Bulls +12 -104 at 5Dimes

Boston is at low ebb right now coming home after going 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS on a five-game road trip that concluded this past Sunday in Portland with a 100-94 loss to the Trail Blazers. The Celtics' lone win during their trip came against the 2-11 Suns in overtime. The question now becomes are the Celtics ready to take out their frustrations against the Bulls today? The evidence says no. Boston likely wins, but not by double-digits. The Celtics are still trying to find their way. Brad Stevens is working on ironing out his rotation. Not only is this Boston's first game back from a long trip - often a bad spot for the home team - but the Celtics have revenge games up next hosting Toronto on Friday and Utah on Saturday. The matchup against the Raptors is the biggest for the Celtics so far this season. So Stevens has little reason to extend his starter's minutes against the lowly Bulls especially if the game gets out of hand, which leaves the backdoor swinging open if it comes down to a garbage time scenario with the point spread on the line. Boston is at its point spread worst, too, when laying 8 1/2 or more points having failed to cover in that situation the past 10 TIMES, including going 0-4 ATS in that role this season. The Bulls are a young team with some of their better players injured. Zach LaVine is having a breakout season, though. He's currently the fifth-leading scorer in the NBA averaging 27.1 points a game. Chicago has covered in its last three away games. Only twice in their last 11 games have the Bulls lost by more than nine points.

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Jack Jones

Nov 14 '18, 8:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Miami-OH vs Northern Illinois
Play on: Miami-OH +7 -105 at 5Dimes

Jack’s Free Pick Wednesday: Miami Ohio +7
Western Michigan did Northern Illinois a huge favor last night. They lost 41-42 (OT) at Ball State, and that loss handed the Huskies the MAC West title. Northern Illinois will now be going to the MAC Championship Game regardless of what happens in these final two games, including tonight’s affair with Miami Ohio.
Now I have to question the Huskies’ motivation here tonight. And I certainly don’t believe they should be 7-point favorites over Miami Ohio, a team that is still fighting for bowl eligibility at 4-6 on the season. And that was on display last week when Miami Ohio upset Ohio 30-28 as 4.5-point underdogs. They controlled that game from start to finish before Ohio made a late rally to make it interesting.
The Redhawks have been flying under the radar for quite some time now. They are actually 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. They’ve lost two games by exactly one point during this stretch and another by 9 points at Buffalo, which is the best team in the MAC this season. And they actually held a lead in the 4th quarter over Buffalo before giving way late.
Northern Illinois simply doesn’t have the offensive firepower to be laying big numbers. The Huskies are only scoring 21.1 points per game this season while averaging just 318.5 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play. They are actually getting outgained by 36.3 yards per game by their opponents on the season. To compare, Miami is outgaining its opponents by 7.3 yards per game on the season despite the 4-6 record, so they are better than their record.
Miami Ohio is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings with Northern Illinois, and four of those were decided by 5 points or fewer. The Redhawks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games. Bet Miami Ohio Wednesday.

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Dustin Hawkins

Nov 14 '18, 8:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Miami-OH vs Northern Illinois
Play on: Miami-OH +6½ +105 at 5Dimes

Free Play on Miami-OH +6½ +105

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Marc Lawrence

Nov 14 '18, 8:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Miami-OH vs Northern Illinois
Play on: Miami-OH +6½ -107 at pinnacle

Play - Miami Ohio (Game 305).
Edges - RedHawks: 13-5 ATS last 18 conference road games … Huskies: 1-5 ATS in this series … With the Hawks in need of two wins in their final two games to become bowl eligible, we recommend a 1* play on Miami Ohio. Thank you and good luck as always.