Thursday 11-15-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Early bettors hit Rams' odds for NFL clash vs. Chiefs; total a whopping 64
Patrick Everson

Jared Goff and Todd Gurley have the Rams atop the NFC with a 9-1 SU mark. Although Los Angeles is just 4-6 ATS, early bettors moved the Rams from -1 to -2 against the Chiefs in Mexico City.

The NFL game everybody has pointed to for weeks is finally on deck, and rightly so, it’s the finale of the Week 11 docket. We check in on the opening lines and early action for that contest and three other notable matchups, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.


Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)

Green Bay also wouldn’t be in the playoffs with its .500 record to this point. The Packers (4-4-1 SU, 4-5 ATS) halted a 1-3 SU and ATS skid by dropping Miami 31-12 laying 11 points at home Sunday.

Seattle also has work to do if it hopes to climb back into the postseason picture. The Seahawks (4-5 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) put up a valiant fight against the Los Angeles Rams, but came up just short in a 36-31 loss catching 10 points on the road.

“Another really tough road game for the Packers, after they played at the Rams and at the Patriots” in recent weeks, Murray said. “There will be a lot of money both ways, but I anticipate the public mostly backing Green Bay.”

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Tech Trends - Week 11
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Nov. 15

GREEN BAY at SEATTLE (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Pack has lost six in a row SU on road and just 1-5 vs. line in those games. Pack “over” 13-5 since mid 2017.
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Seahawks, based on “totals” and team trends.

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 11

Thursday. November 15

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (4 - 4 - 1) at SEATTLE (4 - 5) - 11/15/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 2-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-0 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Week 11

Trend Report

Thursday. November 15

Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
Green Bay is 4-7-1 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Green Bay's last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games
Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Green Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Green Bay's last 16 games on the road
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Green Bay is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Seattle
Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle

Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games
Seattle is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Seattle is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games at home
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Seattle is 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Green Bay
Seattle is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Green Bay
Seattle is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 11


Thursday. November 15

Green Bay @ Seattle

Game 307-308
November 15, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
133.315
Seattle
132.734
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 1
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 2 1/2
49
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+2 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 11


Thursday
Packers (4-4-1) @ Seahawks (4-5)— Green Bay is 0-4 on the road this year, 1-1 as AU; they gave up 31 points in both their games on artificial turf this year- they’re 5-11 vs spread in last 16 games on carpet. Since ’16, Pack is 6-5 as a road dog. Seattle is 4-0 this year when it allows 17 or fewer points, 0-4 when allows more; they lost their last two home games. Home side won last seven series games; Packers lost last three visits here, by 3-20-6 points. This is 5th year in row these teams met, with Green Bay winning last three. Home teams are 8-2 in Thursday games this year; Packers are NFC West non-divisional favorites are 5-6 vs spread; NFC North AU are 4-2. Last three Packer games stayed under total; under is 6-2 in last eight Seattle games.

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Opening Line Report - Week 11
Joe Williams

It's Week 11 of the National Football League regular season and we get the most highly anticipated game of the year, as well as a potential Super Bowl preview. And, the game is being played in Mexico City, of course. How disappointing is that for fans of the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams, that neither of these home fan bases get to see this marquee matchup in their home stadium?

On the undercard, the Houston Texans and Washington Redskins is a sleeper game on the Sunday early window. It's a battle of first-place teams in the AFC South and NFC East. Who would have thought this would be an important battle earlier in the season? The Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints is also an interesting battle, albeit one of the teams being below .500. It's still the defending champs on the rope trying desperately to stay in the playoff chase.

Thursday, Nov. 15

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, 49)

There has been very little movement on this game so far, with the Seahawks listed at -2 1/2 across all shops except for Treasure Island, as you can still catch the 'Hawks at -2. For a Thursday game, there has been very little movement on the total, too. The over/under is listed at 49 1/2 at most shops, with Atlantis as the outlier at 49.

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Games to Watch - Week 11

The top teams in each of the conferences are starting to pull away from the pack, but there are still plenty of teams below the top two spots in the AFC and NFC with a legitimate shot at a playoff spot.

The final few weeks of the season will sort out the men from the boys, as those teams currently sitting on the edge will either step up or fade away. There are a lot of important games on the NFL Week 11 schedule, starting on Thursday night with a crucial NFC match-up.

Let’s take a closer look at four games that should really be required viewing in Week 11.

Green Bay Packers (+2½ +100) at Seattle Seahawks (-2½ -120)

Both of these teams are currently sitting outside the playoffs looking in, but both are also close enough that a solid finish to the season could get them into the postseason. The Packers have been surprisingly average this season, thanks in large part to their inability to win on the road, where they are currently at 0-4. Ordinarily, that would mean trouble with a trip to Seattle, but the Seahawks are also a surprise, going just 1-2 in their own building this season. This is a crucial game for both teams and one that is likely to go down to the wire. I may change my mind in the next couple of days, but right now I am on the Packers.

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TNF - Packers at Seahawks
Tony Mejia

Green Bay at Seattle (-3, 49), 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN

The first meeting between Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson produced one of the NFL’s most memorable finishes. You remember the “Fail Mary,” right? Replacement refs butchered the call, Golden Tate was awarded a touchdown he didn’t deserve and the Packers went home losers of a game in which Rodgers was sacked eight times.

The Packers star won his first visit to Seattle but comes into Thursday night’s crucial clash against the Seahawks 1-2 at Century Link Field, having also lost the 2014 season opener. Rodgers has posted wins in each of the past three seasons, but all of those meetings came at Lambeau Field.

This latest matchup finds both perennial NFC title contenders on the outside looking in as far as making the playoffs is concerned. With this being the 10th game for both, the sense of urgency is ratcheted up as all excuses go out the window. It doesn’t matter that this is a short week for both or that this will be the fourth time each takes the field in a 20-day span. The winner gets to have a nice, hopeful Thanksgiving while the loser faces a miserable time since they’ll be a sub-.500 team facing must-wins the rest of the way.

Green Bay has yet to win on the road this season, losing to heavyweights like the Rams and Patriots in addition to setbacks against the Redskins and Lions. The 12th Man has only witnessed a single Seahawks victory this season – way back in September against Dallas. Seattle came up short against the Rams and Chargers in games they were in all four quarters, but its feared homefield advantage has been neutralized of late.

Dating back to November of last season, the Seahawks have won only two of seven home games. They fell 36-31 against the Rams on Sunday, coming up short on a comeback bid as Wilson tried to rally his team despite starting RB Chris Carson being scratched prior to kickoff.

Wilson, who has thrown three touchdown passes in four of the past five games, ran for a season-best 92 yards in the loss, his highest total since Nov. 2014. Clearly, desperation has set in as he’s hit ‘whatever it takes’ mode since he’d rushed for just 118 yards over his first eight starts.

Jared Goff and Todd Gurley dominated a new-look Seattle defense that surrendered a season-high 36 points, so they’ll be under pressure to turn things around with Rodgers coming into town fresh off his fifth consecutive game without throwing an interception.

Despite still being hampered by a knee issue since being injured in Week 1, Rodgers ran a season-high six times in posting a 31-12 home win over the Dolphins that helped snap a two-game losing streak. His TD-to-INT ratio is 17-1, so it’s going to be difficult for the Seahawks to turn him over. Only Jared Goff has managed to pass for over 300 yards against Seattle’s defense over the past eight weeks, and they do rank seventh with 10 interceptions and eighth with six forced fumbles.

The Packers will be facing the NFL’s top rushing offense at full strength since Carson is expected to return from the hip injury that sidelined him in L.A. Rookie Rashaad Penny and Mike Davis teamed with Wilson to try and effectively play keep-away from the Rams offense, giving them a chance and ultimately, helping score a backdoor cover despite the loss.

Expect a heavy dose of the run since Pete Carroll knows enough that he doesn’t fully trust his defense to contain Rodgers and will want to control possession. Green Bay leads the NFL with 31 sacks and has DT Kenny Clark playing at an extremely high level, so the Seahawks will likely look to protect Wilson by riding the ground game so long as they remain within striking distance.

Weather won’t be a factor on what’s expected to be a clear, 50-degree night in Seattle, so the offense should have solid conditions to work with. Read on for thoughts on the total, line movements, injury news, info on past meetings, props and next week’s betting numbers.

Green Bay Packers
Season win total: 10 (Over +100, Under -120)
Odds to win NFC North: 6/1 to 13/4
Odds to win NFC: 20/1 to 12/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 40/1 to 25/1

Seattle Seahawks
Season win total: 7.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
Odds to win NFC West: OFF to OFF
Odds to win NFC: 100/1 to 150/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 200 to 300/1

LINE MOVEMENT

The Seahawks were +280 to reach the playoffs in the prop available at Westgate before this season began while the Packers went off at -180. The Packers were 17-to-10 to win the NFC North, listed only behind the Vikings (11/10), while Seattle wasn 11/2, trailing the 49ers (7/2) and Rams (1/2), whose dominance has taken the NFC West off the board.

The Packers were 6-to-1 to capture the NFC and 12-to-1 to win the Super Bowl when the season began. Seattle went off at 30/1 to win the NFC and 60/1 to prevail as champion, so odds are much more lucrative at the moment.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Seahawks were a 2-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced last week and opened at -2.5 before reaching the 3-point spread that was the consensus on Thursday morning.

Seattle opened at -140 on the money line and is available at -145/150 at the moment. If you like the home 'dog outright, a payout on a Packers win will get you +120 to +135 depending on the shop.

INJURY CONCERNS

The Seahawks are the much healthier team, so if you're wondering why a team that's perceived to be superior in terms of current betting futures and preseason expectations is listed as the underdog, there's your answer. Only linebacker K.J. Wright is listed as doubtful, while corner Neiko Thorpe and safety Delano Hill are questionable. The list of players in doubt is far longer on Green Bay's side of things.

Rodgers was one of a number of guys who skipped practice on Monday but he's good to go. The hope is that corner Bashaud Breeland will be able to play since CB Kevin King has been ruled out. LB Blake Martinez should be out there despite an ankle issue, but Nick Perry won't be due to a knee injury. Safety Kentrell Brice won't play either, while the offense will be without Rodgers' security blanket Randall Cobb. Tackles David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga, both dealing with knee issues, are expected to be out there protecting Rodgers.

TOTAL TALK

The ‘over/under’ on this matchup opened at 49 and the number has held steady as of Thursday morning. Weekly “Total Talk” writer Chris David of VegasInsider.com offered up his thoughts on this matchup:

This isn’t an easy total to handicap and for viewing purposes I hope we finally get a tight game on Thursday as the last six outcomes have been decided by an average margin of 25.5 PPG. In the midweek game this season, we’ve watched the ‘over’ go 7-3 and the winning team is averaging 35.6 PPG.

While another shootout is expected by the oddsmakers, I believe this game will fall ‘under’ the total for a variety of reasons. Seattle is a run-first team (152.2 YPG) and it’s coming off a 273-yard performance in a tight loss to the Rams. The ground-and-pound approach keeps runs the clock and it also helps give the defense rest. Most pundits point to Seattle’s unit (21.3 PPG) as a weakness and it’s certainly not on the same level as previous seasons but it’s proven to be decent statistically.

Green Bay (24 PPG) still has issues on the defensive side of the ball and it’s been worse on the road (30.5 PPG) but you can argue that allowing 29 and 31 in their last two road trips to the Rams and Patriots respectively was an improvement. Seattle isn’t on the same level of those teams and I’d be surprised to see Green Bay allow 30-plus points on Thursday.

I also believe the Packers will try to run the ball, especially after posting 195 on the ground in last week’s win albeit to the worst run defense in Miami. Knowing Green Bay hasn’t won back-to-back games this season and this is a must-win matchup, perhaps a run-first approach should be stressed.

For our purposes, Green Bay has leaned slightly to the ‘over’ (5-4) this season but Seattle is one of eight teams in the NFL that have watched the ‘under’ go 6-3. These teams are familiar with one another, having played in each of the last four regular seasons and once in the playoffs. The ‘over’ has gone 3-2 in those games with and that includes a 2-0 mark in the contests played at CenturyLink Field.

Along with leaning to the ‘under’ (49) in the game, I would also press the ‘under’ on the Team Total for both the Packers (23 ½) and Seahawks (25 ½) as well.

RECENT MEETINGS (Green Bay 7-3 SU, 7-2-1 ATS last 10; UNDER 5-5)

9/10/17 Green Bay 17-9 vs. Seattle (GB -2.5, 49.5)
12/11/16 Green Bay 38-10 vs. Seattle (GB +3, 47)
9/20/15 Green Bay 27-17 vs. Seattle (GB -3, 49)
9/4/14 Seattle 36-16 vs. Green Bay (SEA -8.5, 45)
9/24/12 Seattle 14-12 vs. Green Bay (SEA +3.5, 45.5)
12/27/09 Green Bay 48-10 vs. Seattle (GB -13.5, 43.5)
10/12/08 Green Bay 27-17 at Seattle (GB +1, 44.5)
11/27/06 Seattle 34-24 vs. Green Bay (SEA -10, 42.5)
1/1/06 Green Bay 23-17 vs. Seattle (GB -3, 40.5)
10/5/03 Green Bay 35-13 vs. Seattle (GB -1, 45)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tulane at Houston
Joe Nelson

This week’s Thursday night ESPN game comes out of the American Athletic Conference with a West division battle between Tulane and Houston. Both teams are in a three-way tie with SMU at 4-2 on top of the division standings as the victor can remain in the mix for the division title.

Here is a look at tonight’s game to start a big mid-November college football weekend.

Match-up: Tulane Green Wave at Houston Cougars
Venue: at TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas
Time/TV: Thursday, November 15, 8:00 PM ET ESPN
Line: Houston -10, Over/Under 67½
Last Meeting: 2017, at Tulane (+9) 20, Houston 17

The American Athletic Conference West has had three different division champions in three years and a fourth new participant to the AAC title game is possible out of the West this season. SMU, Houston, and Tulane are all tied at 4-2 with SMU having wins over both Houston and Tulane. The Mustangs have a difficult game with Memphis this Friday before heading on the road to face Tulsa next week as a loss is certainly possible to open the door for the winner of this game.

Along with Memphis, Houston was considered one of the favorites in the West riding five consecutive winning seasons even after a step-back to 7-5 last season in the first season under Major Applewhite. Houston won the inaugural AAC Championship game in 2015 and grabbed headlines nationally in 2016 with notable wins over Oklahoma and Louisville.

Houston struggled to find a quarterback early last season but D’Eriq King emerged in late October, keying the upset over South Florida and finishing the season with strong results in the air and on the ground. Now a junior King has big numbers, accounting for 48 touchdowns but his passing numbers are slightly down and he has six interceptions this season. He is a threat on the ground as well with 13 rushing touchdowns on 5.9 yards per carry and he ranks 6th nationally in QB Rating behind five players on College Football Playoff contending teams.

Offense hasn’t been an issue for Houston, averaging nearly 48 points per game for the fourth highest mark in the nation. The defense has really struggled however surrendering 34 points per game, including 37 points per game in AAC play. In back-to-back losses the past two weeks Houston has allowed 104 points and four straight foes have scored at least 36 points against Houston while rushing for at least 196 yards. Houston has also benefitted from not drawing UCF or Cincinnati in the East schedule draw.

Houston has one of the highest profile defensive players in the nation with Ed Oliver a projected 1st round NFL pick next spring but Oliver hasn’t played in the past three games and appears likely to be ruled out to play again this week with a lingering knee injury. Houston’s defense has allowed big rushing numbers in recent weeks including surrendering 312 rushing yards in last week’s home loss to Temple and the Cougars are coming off back-to-back double-digit defeats.

Home losses have been rare for the Houston program with a 22-3 S/U record at home since 2014 and it had been 31 games since Houston had lost a home game by more than a single score. Houston was a 27-point home favorite in a 30-18 win over Tulane at home two years ago but last season in New Orleans the Wave pulled off the upset, making this a revenge game in Houston’s final home game of the season.

Tulane started the season with a competitive overtime loss hosting Wake Forest but wound up starting the season 2-5. Three straight wins have put the Wave back in the postseason conversation in the third season for Willie Fritz with Tulane last making a bowl game in 2013. Next week’s home game with Navy will be a reasonable opportunity but Tulane has won its past two road games and could emerge as an AAC title threat with another road win this week.

Tulane runs the option and despite marginal numbers, the results have been better since making a move to Justin McMillan at quarterback. Jonathan Banks started most of last season and the senior was productive in the first seven games this season. McMillan is also a senior and played sparingly until replacing Banks in the loss at Cincinnati in early October. He didn’t play at all the next week but he has been the team’s quarterback the past three games, all wins, albeit against lighter competition than Banks faced in most of his games. McMillan had by far his best passing game last week as Tulane surprisingly threw 28 times for 372 yards to add some different wrinkles to the playbook.

Tulane has been the best defensive team in the AAC West, allowing only 23 points per game with each of the past three foes held to 18 or fewer points. Pass defense has been a strong point holding opposing quarterbacks to just over 52 percent completions and only 7.2 yards per attempt. Tulane also has allowed just 3.8 yards per rush and just 141 yards per game. Houston has only allowed 3.9 yards per rush on the season but the numbers have been heading in the wrong direction the past four weeks.

Houston’s defense will certainly be difficult to trust as a heavy favorite in any matchup though this is a Cougars team that has scored at least 41 points in five of six conference games, a figure Tulane has reached once vs. FBS competition this season. Whichever team controls the pace and avoids turnovers should have the edge and the recent scheduling has played a role in the recent opposing trajectories for these teams.

Last season: Houston trailed 13-3 at halftime at Tulane but seemed likely to pull out the win as there were missed opportunities with a fumble near midfield while also failing going for it on 4th-and-1 from the Tulane 6-yard-line early in the second quarter. On the first drive of the second half King threw an interception in the end zone but after a Tulane interception Houston scored a touchdown to close to within three by the start of the fourth quarter. On the next drive Houston went 91 yards to take the lead but Tulane answered with Banks delivering a 64-yard touchdown pass. Down three in the final minutes Houston again went for it on 4th down rather than attempting a long field goal for the tie and came up empty as Tulane held on for the upset.

Historical Trends:

-- Houston has held a strong home field edge with a 65-16 S/U and 43-33-1 ATS record since 2006 while going 4-1 S/U and 3-2 ATS at home this season.

-- Houston is on a 12-2 S/U and 11-3 ATS run in this series since 2003 though Tulane has covered in the past two trips to Houston including an upset win in 2014 as a 17-point underdog.

-- Tulane is 9-49 S/U and 27-31 ATS as a road underdog since 2008, going 5-6 ATS since 2016 under Fritz with only one S/U upset, with that win the 41-15 win at South Florida earlier this month.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, November 15


Golden State @ Houston

Game 501-502
November 15, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
125.679
Houston
119.515
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 6
202
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3 1/2
219
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(+3 1/2); Under

Atlanta @ Denver

Game 503-504
November 15, 2018 @ 9:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
109.980
Denver
120.102
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 10
212
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 13
221 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+13); Over

San Antonio @ LA Clippers

Game 505-506
November 15, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
111.828
LA Clippers
123.845
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 12
206
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 5 1/2
217
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(-5 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Inside the Paint - Thursday
Chris David

Before we break down Thursday’s three-game card, let’s recap yesterday’s action and offer congratulations to bettors who took the points. Underdogs produced a 6-5 record both straight up and against the spread and those results included some healthy money-line tickets and improbable rallies.

Detroit (+425) trailed by as many as 19 points on Wednesday to Toronto but the club somehow found its stride and earned a 106-104 road win on a buzzer beater. Pistons head coach Dwane Casey was certainly satisfied to defeat his former team.

Another top contender in the East went down as well last night as Memphis (+450) caught Milwaukee, who was caught sleeping in its first game at home after a long road trip. The Grizzlies held on for a 116-113 decision and bettors on the ‘under’ (212 ½) probably weren’t happy as the pair combined for 136 points in the second-half after the game was tied 45-45 at halftime.

In the Western Conference, both the Mavericks (+5) and Suns (+6) captured victories as home ‘dogs over the Jazz and Spurs respectively. Also, the Jimmy Butler era in Philadelphia started with a loss as the Magic (+5 ½) rallied past the 76ers 111-106 by outscoring them 35-19 in the fourth quarter.

Total bettors watched the ‘under’ go 7-4.

(Straight Up – SU, Against the Spread – ATS)

Game of the Night (TNT, 8:05 p.m. ET)
Golden State (12-3 SU, 8-7 ATS) at Houston (6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS)

We haven’t even finished a quarter of the season and the NBA ‘drama’ level has already reached full capacity, especially with these West Coast clubs. NBA senior writer and handciapper Tony Mejia weighed in on the latest from Golden State.

Mejia said, "Word on the street is that the Warriors were going to ensure Kevin Durant and Draymond Green hashed things out on the flight from Oakland to Houston, so we’re going to see a fired up group take the floor for this first meeting with the Rockets since Game 7 of May’s Western Conference finals. Since Stephen Curry is going to be out for another 10 days, it’s going to be on Durant and Green to figure things out alongside Klay Thompson like they were managing the other night in a competitive, fiery game against the Clippers."

"Without Curry to spread the floor and quicken the pace, I think we’re likely to see more of a grinder since Steve Kerr is likely to start with Kevon Looney and Jordan Bell up front with his feuding forwards before working Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston in to match up with Houston likely to go small. The Rockets have held five of their last six opponents under 100 points and clearly have placed a premium on improving defensively following their slow start by re-hiring assistant Jeff Bzdelik and essentially firing Carmelo Anthony. The Warriors held Houston under 100 points in the last five games of last year’s playoff series after only doing so once in the previous nine meetings between the teams. I’m curious to see where this total opens and I anticipate it will likely be around 220 without Curry. Golden State’s lowest total of the season closed 218 at Utah (Oct. 19) while the last 11 Rockets’ totals have closed at 223 or lower."

Mejia was on target with the total of 220. For the side, oddsmakers opened the game pick ‘em but the early money has pushed Houston up to -3 over Golden State. The Warriors haven’t closed as underdogs this season and as bad as the drama appears, bettors focus on results and the Warriors remain slight profitable.

On the road, Golden State has gone 4-2 (2-4 ATS) and the two losses could’ve gone the other way as they dropped a 100-98 decision at Denver before last Monday’s 121-116 overtime loss to the Clippers at the Staples Center. Either way, Golden State is still a formidable opponent even without Curry.

Houston has been dealing with its own ‘in-house’ drama as well and a 6-7 start wasn’t expected, especially for a team coming off a 65-17 campaign last season. Despite the rough beginning, the Rockets have been in better form and have gone 5-2 (4-3 ATS) in their last seven games. What’s impressive about the recent run is six games were played on the road. At home, Houston started 0-4 but it captured its last outing at the Toyota Center with a 115-103 win over Indiana last Sunday.

In Golden State’s win over Houston in last year’s Western Conference Finals, the point-spread didn’t matter in any of the seven games. The Warriors went 2-2 both SU and ATS in their four trips to Houston in the series. The ‘under’ went 6-1 and the totals ranged from 227 to 208, the latter occurring in Game 7.

After this game, the Warriors will finish off their Texas road trip with games at Dallas and San Antonio this weekend. Meanwhile, Houston has a great chance to go on a run and it should be favored in its next six games.

Atlanta (3-11 SU, 6-8 ATS) at Denver (9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Tough game to handicap and it’s hard to make a case for Denver, who has dropped four straight games yet its listed as a double-digit home favorite (-13). Will the Nuggets finally turn things around and run somebody? Knowing Denver heads on the road for three games against the Pelicans, Bucks and Timberwolves, this certainly needs to be a ‘get right’ game for the club.

Even though the Hawks have struggled to a 1-7 record away from home, they have shown some fight recently and they’ve covered three straight games as road underdogs, two of them coming on their current West Coast trip.

Surprisingly, the Nuggets own the best ‘under’ record (9-4-1) in the NBA but all four ‘over’ winners did come at home. Watching Denver this season, you can see that it hasn’t been able to fill the scoring void of Wilson Chandler (76ers) or Will Barton (injury) at this time. Atlanta started the season on a 6-3 ‘over’ run but the ‘under’ has connected in four of its last five and the offense (105.4 PPG) hasn’t been connecting during this recent span.

For what it’s worth, the Hawks have gone 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in their last six encounters against the Nuggets. Atlanta has won its previous three games played at the Pepsi Center and it’s scored 119, 109 and 110 in those road victories.

San Antonio (7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS) at L.A. Clippers (8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Los Angeles opened as a five-point home favorite for this contest and that’s the second largest number of points that it’s laying this season. I wouldn’t say the team has overachieved because it has a lot of “B” players on the squad, but recent overtime wins over Milwaukee (128-126) and Golden State (121-116) were impressive. Winning at home has been a large part of their success, with the Clippers going 6-1 both SU and ATS at home. They haven’t lost at the Staples Center since opening night and this will be the last home game before they head to the East Coast for three straight games.

San Antonio enters this game off back-to-back losses as road favorites, which includes an embarrassing 20-point setback (116-96) last night in Phoenix. Including that loss, the Spurs are 2-4 both SU and ATS on the road this season. This will be the second back-to-back spot that the Spurs will face this season. In the first situation with no rest, San Antonio dropped a 117-110 home decision to Orland on Nov. 4 as a 7 ½-point home favorite.

If you believe the Spurs will come to play and finish off their road trip with a solid effort, then a lean to the money-line (+185) might be better suited. The spread hasn’t mattered for either San Antonio as an underdog or Los Angeles as a favorite this season. When the Clippers win, they’ve covered and when the Spurs haven’t been able to sneak in a cover in any losses as ‘dogs.

Last season, the home team won all three meetings with San Antonio notching a pair of double-digit wins (120-107, 109-91) at the AT&T Center while Los Angeles captured a close call (113-110) from the Staples Center.

TNT will provide national coverage on this game at 10:35 p.m. ET.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Dunkel

Thursday, November 15


NY Rangers @ NY Islanders

Game 1-2
November 15, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Rangers
10.965
NY Islanders
12.910
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Islanders
by 2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Islanders
-135
6
Dunkel Pick:
NY Islanders
(-135); Over

New Jersey @ Philadelphia

Game 3-4
November 15, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Jersey
9.936
Philadelphia
12.880
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 3
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
-145
6
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-145); Under

Tampa Bay @ Pittsburgh

Game 5-6
November 15, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
9.094
Pittsburgh
11.581
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 2 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-115
6
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-105); Over

Florida @ Columbus

Game 7-8
November 15, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida
12.626
Columbus
11.090
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida
by 1 1/2
3
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Columbus
-130
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Florida
(+110); Under

Detroit @ Ottawa

Game 9-10
November 15, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
10.029
Ottawa
13.099
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ottawa
by 3
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ottawa
-115
6
Dunkel Pick:
Ottawa
(-115); Under

Vancouver @ Minnesota

Game 11-12
November 15, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Vancouver
8.693
Minnesota
11.800
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
-220
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-220); Over

Nashville @ Arizona

Game 13-14
November 15, 2018 @ 9:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Nashville
9.058
Arizona
12.007
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nashville
-140
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+120); Over

Montreal @ Calgary

Game 15-16
November 15, 2018 @ 9:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Montreal
11.663
Calgary
8.026
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Montreal
by 3 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary
-145
6
Dunkel Pick:
Montreal
(+125); Under

Toronto @ San Jose

Game 17-18
November 15, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
9.945
San Jose
13.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Jose
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Jose
-135
6
Dunkel Pick:
San Jose
(-135); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Club

Nov 15 '18, 6:00 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | Toledo vs Kent State
Play on: Kent State +13½ -110 at Bovada

Kent State +13.5
This play just missed out on our premium card. All Toledo needs in this game is a win to become bowl eligible and after their game last week they now can't get to the MAC Championship game.
The Golden Flashes haven't been good this year but they are 3-0 ATS at home this year and with 13.5 points, it's a perfect time to trust them.
Some trends to note. Home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Golden Flashes are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
Back the Golden Flashes.
5* FREE Cappers Club Play on Kent State +13.5
Good luck, Cappers Club.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

Nov 15 '18, 7:05 PM in 7h
NHL | Panthers vs Blue Jackets
Play on: Blue Jackets -119 at pinnacle

The Panthers are on a roll winning five in a row. But they find themselves underdogs to Columbus. Is that right? Yes, the Blue Jackets are the right side. They are the better team, have a superstar goalie who is hot, are far more rested and have a huge home ice advantage having defeated Florida 10 of the last 11 times in Columbus. The Panthers are in action for the fourth time in six days. They just defeated the Flyers, 2-1, in Philadelphia on Tuesday. Columbus has five more points this season than Florida. Sergei Bobrovsky is in the argument for top goalie in the league and he's hot giving up one goal in five of his last six games. The Blue Jackets also have defeated the Panthers during the past five meetings. (Editor's note: Stephen Nover is turning a tidy profit in the NHL for the third straight season going 9-4-1 on his last 14 premium/free plays. Stephen has a Thursday Ice Crusher going today in addition to this free selection.)