Friday 11-16-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Top Shelf Sports Pick NHL WINNIPEG JETS ‑215

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DONNY ACTION NHL VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS ‑155

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The Oracle NHL BUFFALO SABRES/WINNIPEG JETS o6

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Lasvegasmoneymachine NBA PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS ‑1

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Monster Sports Picks NBA PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS ‑1

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Tys Terrific Tips NCAA Football NEW MEXICO LOBOS +21

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Vegas Pro Insiders Daily NCAA Basketball PENNSYLVANIA QUAKERS ‑1.5

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Friday's Tip Sheet
November 16, 2018
By Kevin Rogers

Game of the Night: Raptors at Celtics – 7:05 PM EST

Both these Eastern Conference powers have seen their struggles of late as they meet for the second time this season on Friday night. Toronto (12-3 SU, 8-7 ATS) still leads the Atlantic division through one month, but the Raptors have lost more games in the last four days than they had in the first three weeks of the season.

The Raptors were blown out on Monday by New Orleans in a 16-point home defeat, but tried to turn things around against the Pistons on Wednesday. Toronto jumped out to a commanding 19-point third quarter advantage, but Detroit rallied back and stunned the Raptors with a buzzer-beater in a 106-104 upset as 9 ½-point underdogs. Kawhi Leonard led Toronto with 26 points, but also committed a costly turnover on the possession prior to Detroit’s game-winner.

The Celtics (8-6 SU. 5-9 ATS) picked up their first cover in six opportunities after posting an 0-5 ATS mark on their recent road swing. Boston rallied from an early deficit to blow out Chicago on Wednesday, 111-82 as 12 ½-point home favorites, highlighted by a 32-11 second quarter run. All five Celtics’ starters finished in double-figures, led by Jaylen Brown’s 18 points, while Boston limited Chicago to 39% shooting from the field.

In the first matchup this season in Toronto on October 19, the Raptors knocked off the Celtics, 113-101 as three-point favorites. Boston led by seven after one quarter, but the Raptors outscored the Celtics in each of the final three quarters as Leonard posted a 31-point, 10-rebound effort in the win. The home team has won each of the past eight meetings between these division foes, including three consecutive victories by Boston at TD Garden.

Sounds of Silence

If any team was happy that Wednesday was over, it was the Jazz. Utah (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS) entered Dallas seeking its third victory over the Mavericks this season and left the American Airlines Center on the wrong side of a 50-point defeat. The Mavs wiped out the Jazz, 118-68, as Utah was limited to 22 second half points. Utah continues a five-game road trip in Philadelphia tonight, while traveling to Boston tomorrow for a difficult back-to-back set.

The 76ers (9-7 SU, 6-10 ATS) squandered a 16-point fourth quarter lead in Wednesday’s meltdown loss at Orlando. The Magic ran off 21 consecutive points to stun the Sixers in the debut of Jimmy Butler, who scored 14 points as Philadelphia dropped to 2-7 on the road. The 76ers head back home where they own a perfect 7-0 record at Wells Fargo Center, but Philadelphia owns a 4-3 ATS mark in those games.

Utah captured eight consecutive meetings with Philadelphia from 2014 through 2016, but the 76ers grabbed both matchups last season, including a 21-point blowout at Wells Fargo Center.

Right on Target

The Timberwolves (6-9 SU, 7-8 ATS) are glad to be off the road for a while, where they are winless in eight tries. Minnesota has posted a solid 6-1 mark at the Target Center this season, coming off back-to-back wins over Brooklyn and New Orleans. In Wednesday’s victory over the Pelicans, Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins combined for 48 points, while Jeff Teague dished out 14 assists as Minnesota picked up its third outright win as a home underdog this season.

Minnesota welcomes in Portland, as the Blazers (10-4 SU, 10-4 ATS) are looking to avoid consecutive losses for the first this season. Portland built an early double-digit lead at Los Angeles on Wednesday, but the Blazers couldn’t slow down LeBron James and the Lakers in a 126-117 setback to end a four-game winning streak. In the first matchup with Minnesota this season, the Blazers rolled the short-handed Wolves (playing without Butler, Teague, and Derrick Rose), 111-81 at the Moda Center for third straight win over Minnesota since January.

Special Delivery

Guess who owns the top record in the Southwest division 13 games into the season? It’s not the Rockets and it’s not the Spurs. Instead, it’s the Grizzlies (8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS), who own a 5-1 record at FedEx Forum, while coming off their most impressive win of the young season by stunning the Bucks as 9 ½-point road underdogs, 116-113 on Wednesday. Memphis handed Milwaukee its first home loss of the season, while Marc Gasol drilled six three-pointers and scored 29 points in the win.

The Kings (8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS) embark on a quick two-game road trip that continues to Houston on Saturday. Sacramento is seeking its second victory over Memphis this season after rallying past the Grizzlies at Golden 1 Center last month, 97-92. The Kings are coming off four straight UNDERS on their homestand, capped off by a 104-99 triumph over San Antonio. Sacramento has been a tremendous OVER team away from home this season by hitting the OVER in six of seven away contests.

Buck Bounce-Back?

Milwaukee (10-4 SU, 8-5-1 ATS) opened a new arena this season and started with a bang by winning its first six games at Fiserv Forum. The first defeat came in Wednesday’s three-point setback to the Grizzlies as the Bucks had won each of their first six home games by double-digits. Giannis Antetokounmpo paced the Bucks with 31 points, but Milwaukee allowed 68 second half points (also scored 68 points), while sailing OVER the total for the seventh time in eight games.

The Bucks are heavy favorites against the Bulls (4-11 SU, 8-7 ATS), who have failed to cover in three straight games following a 5-0 ATS run. Chicago has struggled to hang as a double-digit underdog this season by posting an 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS record, coming off a blowout loss at Boston on Wednesday. Last season, the Bulls shocked the Bucks in two visits to Milwaukee, while the road team has won each of the past seven matchups.

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NBA
Dunkel

Friday, November 16


Brooklyn @ Washington

Game 701-702
November 16, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Brooklyn
109.713
Washington
121.386
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 11 1/2
228
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 7
223
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-7); Over

Miami @ Indiana

Game 703-704
November 16, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
110.770
Indiana
121.285
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 10 1/2
207
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indiana
by 5
213
Dunkel Pick:
Indiana
(-5); Over

Utah @ Philadelphia

Game 705-706
November 16, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
112.695
Philadelphia
118.151
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 5 1/2
221
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 2 1/2
217
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-2 1/2); Over

Toronto @ Boston

Game 707-708
November 16, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
118.665
Boston
122.832
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 4
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 1 1/2
215
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-1 1/2); Over

Portland @ Minnesota

Game 709-710
November 16, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Portland
125.210
Minnesota
116.700
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
by 9 1/2
219
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 1
223 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(-1); Under

Sacramento @ Memphis

Game 711-712
November 16, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Sacramento
111.614
Memphis
125.720
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis
by 14
206
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Memphis
by 6 1/2
212
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
(-6 1/2); Under

New York @ New Orleans

Game 713-714
November 16, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New York
107.030
New Orleans
120.287
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 13
223
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 10
227
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-10); Under

Chicago @ Milwaukee

Game 715-716
November 16, 2018 @ 9:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
109.224
Milwaukee
127.074
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 18
233
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 14
224
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-14); Over

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Dinged-up Dinos

The Raptors hope to snap their two-game losing skid as they travel to Boston to take on the Celtics as 2-point road underdogs Friday. The Celtics have lost four of their last six games but have won four of their first five home stands in Boston this season.

In their two most recent losses, Toronto struggled to hit from beyond the arc. In games against the Pelicans and Pistons, Toronto missed nine of its first 10 shots attempted from deep and in Wednesday night’s game versus the Pistons, they only managed to connect on four shots out of 20 from 3-point range.

With Serge Ibaka and Danny Green listed as probable for today’s matchup, and Norman Powell out, the Raptors might have to rely on Jonas Valanciunas, who’s impact is immediately felt off the bench. Look for him to play more minutes than usual if Ibaka isn’t healthy or efficient, and take Over his 20.5 points, rebounds, and assists total.


Nets needing scoring

The Brooklyn Nets bring a three-game losing streak to DC to take on the Wizards at Capital One Arena. Despite the horrible start for Washington, it has won four of its last six and is aiming for a fourth straight victory, pegged as a 6.5-point favorite Friday.

The Nets have a long list of injuries with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson questionable along with center Jarrett Allen. They will be without Treveon Graham and Caris LeVert, who are out indefinitely.

The Nets will need scoring to come from somewhere if they want to upset the Wizards. Luckily, Washington is allowing opponents to score 116.9 points per game – 29th in the NBA.

Brooklyn reserve guard Spencer Dinwiddie has seen a steady number of minutes this year, averaging 27.3 played per game. He’s been efficient from the floor, scoring 14.2 points per game on 47.5 percent shooting and contributing 2.5 rebounds and 4.2 assists an outing.

The Wizards have allowed for opposing point guards to average 25.5 points per game, contribute 6.1 rebounds, 8.8 assists and hit 3.2 3-point shots per contest on the season. Look for Dinwiddie to continue his offensive efficiency and take Over the 22.2 points, rebounds, and assists Friday.


Sour notes

The Utah Jazz and Philadelphia 76ers both try to get right off of two disappointing losses - none worse than Utah’s 118-68 loss to the Mavericks on Wednesday night, which was the worst loss for the team since moving to Salt Lake City. The Jazz only managed 22 second-half points and shot 31 percent from the field with just 17 points coming from beyond the arc.

The 76ers dropped Jimmy Butler’s debut in 111-106 collapse to the Orlando Magic, who outscored Philadelphia 35-19 in the fourth quarter. The Sixers will be happy to return home where they have won all seven home games this season. Books currently have Philly giving three points to their non-conference opponent.

Defense should be an emphasis for the Jazz after allowing the Mavs to shoot over 58 percent from the field. These teams have leaned on defense in past meetings with the Under hitting in eight of Utah’s last nine games playing Philadelphia. The lack of perimeter shooting might play into this totals trend, with the Sixers shooting only 34.5 percent from 3-point land and the Jazz making just 33.8 percent of their looks from distance. Take a good look at the Under 217 points.


Lock down positional defense

The 10-4 Trail Blazers are off to a great start, winning 10 of their first 14 games. However, Portland is coming off a disappointing 126-117 road loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday night. They take on the 6-9 Minnesota Timberwolves, who have lost seven of their past 11 games, but have won two straight after an upsetting the Pelicans 107-100 at home Wednesday night.

The Trail Blazers have had a lot of success versus Minnesota, going 18-7 SU over their last 25 meetings. They have posted a 14-7 record over their last 21 road games when playing Minnesota.

Portland is very efficient at limiting opposing point guards. They rank Top 5 in the Association is shutting down PGs, allowing them to shoot only 38.7 percent from the floor and contribute only 17.5 points per game. Timberwolves veteran guard Jeff Teague has been efficient in his two games back after sitting out six, but he’s mostly contributed through assists. Take Under 15.5 points from Teague tonight.


Rondo out 4-5 weeks

We touched on how important Stephen Curry is to the Warriors earlier this week, and sure enough Golden State lost again, 107-86 to Houston Thursday night. The Lakers might be another team that sees a decrease in offensive production as they will be without point guard Rajon Rondo for at least four weeks.

Rajon Rondo underwent successful surgery on his broken right hand, suffering in Wednesday’s win over Portland. Although his role has mostly been as a reserve, Rondo is averaging 9.3 points, 6.8 assists and 4.8 rebounds off the bench. This will likely open up minutes for Lonzo Ball and help get Josh Hart involved in the offense. These two players in particular might be worth a closer look moving forward until Rondo’s return. Los Angeles opens a three-game Eastern Conference road swing at Orlando Saturday and is 3-3 ATS as a visitor this season.

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NHL
Dunkel

Friday, November 16


Boston @ Dallas

Game 51-52
November 16, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
11.331
Dallas
10.533
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-120
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-120); Under

Buffalo @ Winnipeg

Game 53-54
November 16, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
9.985
Winnipeg
13.493
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Winnipeg
by 3 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Winnipeg
-200
6
Dunkel Pick:
Winnipeg
(-200); Under

Los Angeles @ Chicago

Game 55-56
November 16, 2018 @ 8:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Los Angeles
11.521
Chicago
8.007
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Los Angeles
by 3 1/2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
-150
6
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles
(+130); Under

Washington @ Colorado

Game 57-58
November 16, 2018 @ 9:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
12.665
Colorado
10.109
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 2 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado
-150
6
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+130); Over

St. Louis @ Vegas

Game 59-60
November 16, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
12.892
Vegas
9.543
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 3 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Vegas
-165
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(+145); Under

Toronto @ Anaheim

Game 61-62
November 16, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
10.156
Anaheim
11.698
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Anaheim
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
-135
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Anaheim
(+115); Over

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This weekend's NHL betting predictions and picks: Preds paralyzed on power play?

The Western Conference leading Predators take on the cellar dwelling Kings, as they try to keep rolling. We cover this game and much more in our NHL betting cheat sheet with need-to-know betting notes, goalie profiles and injury news to help you crack the NHL odds for the weekend's matchups.

Not so Special on Special Teams

The Nashville Predators are among a handful of teams considered a serious Stanley Cup contender this season but if there is one knock on them it's their power play. The Preds rank dead last in the NHL with a paltry 11.6 % success rate with the man advantage and that number is sure to decline without P.K. Subban in the lineup. The Nashville defenseman is an integral part of the their power play and will be on the shelf for at least 3 games, including their showdown with the Los Angeles Kings on Saturday. The Kings, meanwhile, are 26th in the league on the power play with a 14.3% success rate. The ineptitude on special teams for both of these offenses makes this game look like an easy Under.

Snowball Effect

Boston is 5-0 in their last five meetings in Dallas and will be out to avenge a 6-3 drubbing against the Avalanche on Wednesday. Dallas is coming off a loss against the Columbus Blue Jackets and face a stiff test against Boston as the road team is 9-2 over the last 11 meetings. The Stars are 2-11 in their previous 13 games against the Atlantic Division, while the Bruins are 9-3 in their last 12 after allowing goals in a previous game. The goaltending matchup will be exciting to watch as both Tuukka Rask and Semyon Varlamov are capable of posting a shutout but there is also a ton of offensive firepower in this game. In the end, look for the recent success of the Bruins in Colorado to continue and consider Boston a strong play heading into the weekend.

Wild Night in Minnesota

The Sabres head into Minnesota on Saturday and will need to find a way to solve Wild goaltender Devan Dubnyk. The Over is 5-1-1 in the last seven road games for Buffalo and is 17-6-3 in their last 26 games against Central Division opponents. Buffalo made some key acquisitions in the offseason and are currently hanging onto a wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. The Wild are coming off an offensive display at home against the Canucks and should carry that into their showdown against Buffalo on Saturday. Take the Over as the Sabres and Wild keep the goal judges busy at the Xcel Energy Center.

"You miss 100 percent of the shots you don't take"

The Golden Knights are 30th in the NHL with a shockingly low 26.2 shots per game and will head into Edmonton looking to improve on their subpar road record. The Oilers meanwhile are not too far behind with 29.8 shots per game which puts them 26th in the league. With so few shots, it should be little surprise that the Oilers and Knights are 21st and 28th in the NHL respectively in goals scored. Vegas is expected to start Marc-Andre Fleury who has an impressive 2.51 goals against average this season. He will face off against Cam Talbot eho has a 3.09 GAA and will need a strong game if Edmonton is going to get the win. This is shaping up to be a defensive struggle despite the presence of one of the best players in the game in Connor McDavid.

Goalie Profile - Cory Schneider, New Jersey Devils

Cory Schneider was once considered one of the best goalies in the NHL but so far has struggled mightily for New Jersey in his few appearances between the pipes. The American netminder is 0-3 with a 4.82 GAA and a woeful .849 save percentage which is highly uncharacteristic for him. His play will go a long way in determining the success of the Devils this season. The Devils face off against the Red Wings and Jimmy Howard on Saturday. Howard is playing well with a 6-5-2 record, a 2.69 GAA and .920 SP. Detroit is worthy of consideration as a huge road underdog in this spot as Schneider tries to find his groove.

Injury Update

Andrei Vasilevskiy suffered a foot fracture earlier this week and will be out for a while according to team personnel. This is a huge blow for the Lightning, who are among a small group of teams capable of winning the Stanley Cup and will miss having one of the best goalies in the NHL. Louis Domingue is expected to take over as the interim starter, which is great news for Over bettors as the career backup has struggled mightily in relief this season. With the Lightning coming off a high scoring affair with the Penguins on Thursday, expect another against the Flyers on Saturday and take the Over.

Hat Trick Trends:

Los Angeles is 8-17 in their last 25 meetings in Chicago and 1-11 in their last 12 against the Western Conference.
The Avalanche were 2-0-1 against the Ducks last season and earned 5 out of 6 points. Colorado is +12 in goal differential while Anaheim is -15. The Avs are usually much better at home than on the road but they should be taken into consideration on Friday night.
The home team is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between the Golden Knights and Blues. St. Louis has just 1 road win this season while Vegas is 5-2-1 at home.

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Free play from Mike Wynn

Free Play: Free Siena -3 Norfolk St

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Free play from Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR FRIDAY: BOSTON/TORONTO OVER the total of 215

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Free play from Totals4U

Friday's Free Selection: Sacramento Kings/Memphis Tigers under 213