Sunday 11-18-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Doug Upstone

Nov 18 '18, 1:00 PM in 18h
NFL | Cowboys vs Falcons
Play on: UNDER 50 -110

If you were or have been thinking about betting Atlanta, the total rising two points to 49.5 would seem to be good news. The Falcons defense is very suspect, thus, the more points the better with how they play. But is the higher total correct? I'm going the opposite direction, with Dallas 15-6 UNDER in road games and the Dirty Birds 8-1 UNDER having won three out of their last four games.

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Pro Computer Gambler

Nov 18 '18, 1:00 PM in 18h
NFL | Steelers vs Jaguars
Play on: UNDER 48 -110

KEY TEAM TREND OF THE WEEK: The Steelers are 0-19 OU (-9.86 ppg) on the road facing an opponent that is averaging at least 35 passes per game and they are not a four-plus point underdog.

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Dennis Macklin

Nov 18 '18, 1:00 PM in 18h
NFL | Titans vs Colts
Play on: OVER 48 -120

DMack's Free Play for Sunday November 18, 2018 is on the Titans/Colts Over
The Titans evidently got hings figured out on their bye week, scoring 28 and 34 points in wins over the Cowboys and Patriots. They won't face anywhere near that resistance here against a Colt outfit that has won their last three games in shootouts against teams with a combined record of 7-21. Disregard prior history here look at the moment. The Colts are on a 5-1 run tho the over and Luck is playing very well throwing the play. Can't see Mariota and Co. generating anything less than 30 here with the Colts answering back. 34-30 whoever.

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Tim Michael

Nov 18 '18, 4:05 PM in 21h
NFL | Raiders vs Cardinals
Play on: UNDER 41 -110

T.M. Selection: Raiders/Cardinals under (FREE PLAY)
Two teams who came into the year with big aspirations collide on Sunday afternoon and I have a hard time seeing either mustering much of an offensive attack. Oakland is in full on rebuilding mode (just 1-8 SU overall), most recently falling in a 20-6 setback to the Chargers this past weekend. The Raiders have now scored a grand total of nine points over the last two weeks. Arizona fans can empathize. The Cards are 2-7, most recently falling 26-14 at Kansas City. Arizona has struggled with offensive consistency as well this season and it’s already seen the total go under the number in four of five at home. Consider the under in this “stinker” of a non-conference contest.
T.M. Prediction: 17-14 Arizona.

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John Martin

Nov 18 '18, 4:05 PM in 21h
NFL | Broncos vs Chargers
Play on: UNDER 47 -115

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Broncos/Chargers UNDER 47
I like this UNDER in this division rivalry between the Broncos and Chargers Sunday. The Chargers have gotten healthier on defense in recent weeks and it’s starting to show with their play on the field. They have allowed 19 points or fewer in five consecutive games and an average of just 13.2 PPG in those five contests. They should hold the Broncos in check. This is a Denver offense that has scored 23 points or fewer in seven of their last eight games overall. They just aren’t very good on that side of the ball this season. But their defense is still very strong, and they should be able to slow down Philip Rivers and this Los Angeles offense. The Broncos and Chargers have combined for 47 or fewer points in seven consecutive meetings. With a total of 47 Sunday, this is an easy choice. Give me the UNDER.

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Joseph D'Amico

Nov 18 '18, 4:05 PM in 21h
NFL | Raiders vs Cardinals
Play on: UNDER 41 -110



Sundays FREE NFL WINNER: UNDER in the Raiders/Cardinals matchup.
Games 469/470.
1:05 pm pst.
In a game that will have serious draft pick implications, scoring will be at a minimum. Both offenses are among the worst in football (Oakland 30th, Arizona 31st). The Raiders average just 13.0 PPG on the road, where 3 of their 4 away outings have gone UNDER the Total. The Cardinals account for a mere, 13.0 PPG at home, where 4 of their 5 games played this season also went UNDER the Total. The UNDER is 6-1 in Oakland's L7 road games, 13-3 in Oakland's L16 overall, 20-7 in Arizona's L27 home games, and 9-4 in Arizona's L13 overall. Take the UNDER. Thank you.

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Jeff Allen

Nov 18 '18, 4:05 PM in 21h
NFL | Raiders vs Cardinals
Play on: Raiders +4½ -109 at GTBets

Jeff Allen's Free NFL Play for Sunday is on the Oakland Raiders
Both team play hard but from a talent standpoint, neither team matches up well and both are in tank mode. John Gruden needs a win, any kind of a win to get the pressure off for a couple weeks. He faces a Cardinal team that is 1-4 at home with an 18-15 win in their last against a 49er team that is also bad. Both teams have their moments and this one gets decided by a kick in the final minute. Take the points.

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Sal Michaels

Nov 18 '18, 4:25 PM in 22h
NFL | Eagles vs Saints
Play on: Eagles +9 -120 at Bovada

Free Play on Eagles +9 -120

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Dave Price

Nov 18 '18, 4:25 PM in 22h
NFL | Eagles vs Saints
Play on: Eagles +9 -105 at Bovada

Dave’s Sunday Free Play:
1* on Philadelphia Eagles +9
The Key: We are getting a few extra points on the Eagles that we shouldn’t be getting this week. They are good enough to give the Saints a run for their money. The Saints are a big public team right now after winning 8 in a row and covering the spread in 7 straight. Now they’re being asked to lay 9 points to the defending Super Bowl champs. It’s too much. Also helping inflate this line is the fact that the Eagles were upset by the Cowboys last week. Carson Wentz made some bold statements after the game that make me think the Eagles will put their best foot forward this week. The Eagles are 8-0 ATS vs. good rushing defenses that allow 90 or fewer rushing yards per game over the last 3 seasons. The Eagles are 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average at least 7 YPA over the last 2 years. The Eagles have the far superior defense in this matchup, and that should keep them competitive. Take Philadelphia.

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Tony Brown

Tonys *5 NFL Free Pick

Dallas vs. Atlanta, 11/18/2018 13:00 EDT

Point Spread: -3/-120 Atlanta

Sportsbook:
Bookmaker

Fp: Both teams playing below expectations this season and both teams play defense like it’s optional i look for this to be a barn burner and im taking the home team falcons to do a little more than the cowboys getting the win amd cover for my nfl free pick !

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Chip Chirimbes

Chip's FREE NFL Winner

Houston vs. Washington, 11/18/2018 13:00 EDT

Point Spread: +3/-115 Washington

Sportsbook:
Bodog

Houston at Washington 1:00 ET
Redskins (+) over Texans- This one is a bit confusing as both teams are 6-3 and leading their respective divisions and the Texans come up favored in D.C. And this bothers me because the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Maybe a six-game win streak has a baring as Houston who started 0-3 are now in the driver's seat leading the AFC South. But, there is one cloud hanging over this Houston team as they are 0-10 on the road against NFC opponents. With veterans Alex Smith and Adrian Peterson leading the offense the Redskins will squeak out a win here. Take Washington!

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Alex Smart

nfl comp

Oakland vs. Arizona, 11/18/2018 16:05 EDT

Point Spread: +5½/-110 Oakland

Sportsbook:
Bodog

We have a veteran QB that has completed 71.5 % of his passes this season in Derek Carr, going up against a rookie QB in Josh Rosen, who has more interceptions (eight) than touchdown passes (six). I know the Raiders have looked bad, but Arizona has not been much better, and just because they did not get crushed by KC last week and stayed within a couple of TDs, does not mean their on a upward trajectory like some of the pundits would have you believe. With that said, look for the points to be golden this week, in what will be a closely contested battle between two hapless bottom feeders. Note: The Raiders have covered their L/3 visits to the desert.

Home teams vs. the money line (ARIZONA) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games are 28-12 for a 70% SU conversion rate for bettors.

NFL team (OAKLAND) - after scoring 9 points or less in 2 straight games are 39-13 ATS L/10 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oakland Raiders to cover

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Betting Recap - Week 10
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 10 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-5
Against the Spread 5-7-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-5
Against the Spread 5-7-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-7

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 94-51-2
Against the Spread 67-77-3

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 86-59-2
Against the Spread 69-75-3

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 72-75

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Cowboys (+7.5, ML +300) at Eagles, 27-20
Bills (+7, ML +250) at Jets, 41-10
Titans (+6.5, ML +240) vs. Patriots, 34-10
Browns (+5.5, ML +210) vs. Falcons, 28-16

The largest favorite to cover
Packers (-12.5) vs. Dolphins, 31-12
Chargers (-10.5) at Raiders, 20-6
Bears (-7) vs. Lions, 34-22
Saints (-6) at Bengals, 51-14

Titanic Win

-- The Tennessee Titans upended the New England Patriots by a 34-10 score in Nashville in one of the most surprising results of the weekend. Head coach Mike Vrabel got the best of the master, his former boss Bill Belichick, while QB Tom Brady and the offense looked very ordinary. It doesn't help that TE Rob Gronkowski has been sidelined, but WR Julian Edelman and WR Josh Gordon are playmakers, and RB James White is healthy. The Patriots defense just couldn't stop anyone. The Titans improved to 3-0 ATS over the past three, and 6-2 ATS across the past eight. It was a tremendous difference from their last home game back on Oct. 14 when they were blanked by the Baltimore Ravens 21-0 while QB Marcus Mariota was sacked 11 times in that one.

Charged Up

-- The Los Angeles Chargers have won six in a row and appear to be in a good place. They're flying under the radar out west, playing in the shadows of the Los Angeles Rams for some reason, perhaps because they play in a larger stadium? It's hard to understand. The Bolts are a good team, but not many are talking about them. They're 4-1 ATS over the past five outings while the 'under' is also 4-1 during the span, so there is plenty of opportunity to make money off of the Bolts, too. They're also 3-0 SU/ATS in the past three road contests.

Total Recall

-- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a strange result on Sunday. They lost 16-3 against the Washington Redskins, which isn't terribly shocking since the 'Skins are in first place in the NFC East. However, even with their quarterback turnstile, they had scored 24 or more points in seven of their first eight games and the 'over' was a league-best 7-1. The three points they scored was shocking, as was the 16 points they yielded. That was also a season low.

-- On Thursday night, the Carolina Panthers-Pittsburgh Steelers (51) connected easily. There were 21 points on the board in the first five minutes, and it was all downhill from there. In fact, eventually the Steelers ended up taking care of the over themselves. Speaking of doing it all by themselves, the Buffalo Bills also took care of the 'over' (37.5) themselves in a 41-10 victory on the road against the New York Jets. Not many saw that coming in a game which featured QB Matt Barkley started for the Bills and QB Josh McCown starting for the Jets.

-- The lowest total on the board was that Bills-Jets game. In fact, that was the only game on the board with a total under 44.5. The Detroit Lions-Chicago Bears (44.5) was the second-lowest game on the board and it also hit the over, as did the third-lowest total, the Dallas Cowboys-Philadelphia Eagles (45.5) game also hit in the final four minutes.

-- On the flip side, three of the five games with a total over 50 points saw the 'over' hit, although the Chargers-Raiders (50.5) game never was close to hitting, not was the 'Skins-Bucs (51) contest.

-- The 'over' went 2-0 in the two primetime games in Week 10, with the Monday night game between the New York Giants-San Francisco 49ers (45) still pending. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 15-15 (50.0%). The 'under' has cashed in seven of the past nine battles on Sunday Night Football, although the Cowboys-Eagles game snapped a nice trend.

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Detroit Lions WR Marvin Jones (knee) left early due to a knee issue and he was unable to return.

-- Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp (knee) is feared to have suffered a torn ACL in the team's win over the Seahawks. He will have an MRI on Monday to confirm.

-- New England Patriots WR Julian Edelman (ankle) checked out early due to an ankle injury, while TE Dwayne Allen (knee) also left and didn't return.

Looking Ahead

-- The Bengals and Ravens will square off in Charm City on Sunday. Baltimore is 8-2 ATS in the past 10 against AFC foes, and 4-1 ATS in the past five against divisional foes. However, they're 0-4 ATS in the past four overall. The Ravens return after a bye, and they're 8-3 ATS in the past 11 after a week off. However, they're 1-4 ATS in the past five inside the division and 2-6 ATS in the past eight home games against a team with a winning road mark. The Bengals are 7-3 ATS in the past 10 meetings, while the underdog is 7-2 ATS in the past nine in the series.

-- The Titans look to stay hot against the Colts in Indianapolis in a key AFC South battle. Tennessee is 6-0 ATS in the past six inside the division, while going 6-2 ATS in the past eight overall. Indianapolis is 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 at home against teams with a winning road record, but they're 2-7-1 ATS in the past 10 inside the South. The Titans are 3-10 ATS in the past 13 meetings in this series, and 1-6 ATS in the past seven trips to Indy. The under has connected in 10 of the past 13 meetings in Indianapolis, too.

-- The Broncos and Chargers do battle in L.A. Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in the past five following a bye, while going 1-6 ATS in the past seven inside the division. They're also 3-11 ATS in the past 14 on the road. L.A. has posted a 5-1 ATS mark in the past six against losing teams, while going 5-2 ATS in the past seven inside the division. Lately, it's been all about the under. The under is 5-0 in the past meetings in San Diego/Los Angeles. The under is also 3-1-1 in Denver's past five divisional games, and 5-2-1 in their past eight overall. The under is 13-4 in L.A.'s past 17 against AFC foes, 5-2 in their past seven at home and 7-1 in the past eight inside the division, including Week 10 in Oakland.

-- The Vikings and Bears square off on Sunday Night Football. Minnesota heads to the Windy city 8-3 ATS over the past 11 on the road. However, they're 2-7 ATS in the past nine following a bye and 1-5 ATS in the past six against a team with a winning mark. The Bears are 5-1 ATS in the past six at home, while going 3-1-1 ATS in the past five inside the division. The home team has hit in four of the past five in this series, and the Vikings are a dismal 3-12 ATS in the past 15 trips to Soldier Field.

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Early bettors hit Rams' odds for NFL clash vs. Chiefs; total a whopping 64
Patrick Everson

Jared Goff and Todd Gurley have the Rams atop the NFC with a 9-1 SU mark. Although Los Angeles is just 4-6 ATS, early bettors moved the Rams from -1 to -2 against the Chiefs in Mexico City.

The NFL game everybody has pointed to for weeks is finally on deck, and rightly so, it’s the finale of the Week 11 docket. We check in on the opening lines and early action for that contest and three other notable matchups, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams (-1)

Kansas City is tied with Los Angeles for the best record in the league at 9-1 SU, and Andy Reid’s squad is solo No. 1 against the oddsmakers at 8-2 ATS. That said, the Chiefs couldn’t cover a healthy 16.5-point spread at home in Week 10, coasting past Arizona 26-14.

The Rams bounced back from a loss at New Orleans – their first setback of the season – though they got a stern test in Week 10. Los Angeles (9-1 SU, 4-6 ATS) held off Seattle 36-31 as a 10-point home chalk.

While pointspreads are generally the most notable betting element, the total in this clash of offensive titans is also a real eye-popper, in a neutral-site Monday night game at high altitude in Mexico City.

“We opened the total at 64. No takers either way yet,” Murray said Sunday evening before addressing the spread. “We opened it Rams -1, and it’s been bet up to Rams -2. This game is a tossup to me. Don’t waste time punting on fourth-and-short or kicking field goals. These teams need touchdowns to keep pace with each other.”

Jay Kornegay, executive vice president of operations for The SuperBook, said while the book doesn't keep such statistics, it is believed that 64 is a record-high opening total.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3)

Chicago is certainly one of the bigger surprises of the 2018-19 season, sitting atop the NFC North through 10 weeks. The Bears (6-3 SU and ATS) won and cashed their last three games, including Sunday’s 34-22 victory over Detroit as 7.5-point home favorites.

Minnesota, which reached the NFC title game last season, can take over first place in the NFC North with a win at Soldier Field. And the Vikings (5-3-1 SU and ATS) are well-rested, coming off their bye after a 24-9 victory over Detroit as 4.5-point home faves in Week 9.

“This game will go a long way to determining the NFC North,” Murray said. “I expect a lot of two-way write in this game. The number has moved slightly to Vikings +3 (-120), as there has been some early support for the ‘dog.”

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-7)

New Orleans is the hottest team in the league, winning eight in a row SU while cashing seven consecutive times. The Saints (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) went to Cincinnati as 6-point favorites in Week 10 and put up a 50-plus burger in a 51-14 victory.

Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia wouldn’t make the playoffs if the season ended today. The Eagles (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS) went off as 7.5-point home faves against Dallas in the Week 10 Sunday nighter, but lost outright 27-20.

The SuperBook posted the Eagles-Saints line prior to Philly’s Sunday night loss, and per standard protocol took down the line during the Eagles-Cowboys game. The number will go back up Monday morning.

“This line may go up,” Murray said, noting the Eagles’ setback might require a line adjustment. “The public will be happy to lay the points with New Orleans. The Saints have been very good to bettors recently.”

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)

Green Bay also wouldn’t be in the playoffs with its .500 record to this point. The Packers (4-4-1 SU, 4-5 ATS) halted a 1-3 SU and ATS skid by dropping Miami 31-12 laying 11 points at home Sunday.

Seattle also has work to do if it hopes to climb back into the postseason picture. The Seahawks (4-5 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) put up a valiant fight against the Los Angeles Rams, but came up just short in a 36-31 loss catching 10 points on the road.

“Another really tough road game for the Packers, after they played at the Rams and at the Patriots” in recent weeks, Murray said. “There will be a lot of money both ways, but I anticipate the public mostly backing Green Bay.”