Service Plays Sunday 11/18/18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Eastmen

3-Play. Take #453 Dallas (+3.5)
4-. Take First Half #457 Chicago (-1.5
3-. Take 'Under' 45.5 Minnesota at Chicago (8
4-first half saints
5-. Take #471 Pittsburgh (-5.5) over Jacksonville

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WUnderdog

nfl

Oakland+5.5 vs Arizona

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Mike Davis

7 Unit Take #462 Indy -1 over Tennessee (Sunday, November 18th at 1:00 p.m)

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Vernon Croy

6 unit Play Take #457-458 Minnesota/Chicago GAME TOTAL UNDER 44.5 (Sunday, November 18th at 8:20 PM ET)

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Tony George

3 chargers-7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc sports

nfl

6 giants-1.5
3 dallas+3.5
3 minn+2.5
3 ariz-5
3 pitt-5.5
2 denv+7

3 Unit Play. Take #453 Dallas Cowboy +3.5 over Atlanta Falcons (1pm, Sunday, November 18 FOX) Both teams have been streaky, but it appears Dallas is trending up whereas Atlanta laid an egg last week at Cleveland. Dallas should be able to run the football in this game and that will allow them to have success passing as well off of play action. Atlanta will put up some points and yards in this game, but in the end Dallas will pull it out by a field goal. The Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games.

3 Unit Play. Take #457 Minnesota Vikings +2.5 over Chicago Bears (8:25pm, Sunday, November 18 NBC) A critical game in the NFC North takes place Sunday night in Chicago, IL. The Bears have won three straight games but all of those wins have come against terrible teams. This will be the best defense Mitchell Trubisky has faced at this point of the season. We have seen that if you can keep it close going into the fourth quarter against Chicago they seem to self-destruct. Chicago is 2-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.

6 Unit Play. Take #466 New York Giants -1.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1pm, Sunday, November 18 FOX) TOP NFL PLAY OF THE WEEK The Giants just have too many playmakers to be this bad. They picked up a big win last Monday in San Francisco and should be able to make it two in a row against another bad team in Tampa Bay. Their offensive line played their best game of the season last time out. The Buccaneers have lost 6 of their last 7 games, and not being able to decide on a quarterback has cost them dearly. Their last two games have been over early, and I just do not see them being able to win on the road at the Meadowlands. Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record. New York is 6-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 8 games against Tampa Bay.

2 Unit Play. Take #467 Denver Broncos +7 over Los Angeles Chargers (4:05pm, Sunday, November 18 CBS) Denver has been very competitive this season and 4 of their losses have come against 1st place teams (KC twice, LA Rams, Houston). They have lost those games by a combined 16 points so getting around a touchdown against a division rival is too good to pass up. Denver is coming off a bye week to allow them to get healthy and should be able to take this game down to the wire.

3 Unit Play. Take #470 Arizona Cardinals -5 over Oakland Raiders (4:05pm, Sunday, November 18 CBS) Oakland just does not want to win game this year in order to get a high draft picks (multiple first round picks in 2019). The Raiders have not scored a touchdown in 3 of their last 4 games. Arizona covered the spread last week against Kansas City and their defense is legit. If QB Rosen does not turn over the football they should win this game by double digits.

3 Unit Play. Take #471 Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars (1pm, Sunday, November 18 CBS) Things have gotten bad in a hurry for Jacksonville as they have been flexed out of Sunday Night Football in favor of a better match-up. Pittsburgh is currently on pace for a bye in the playoffs and cannot afford to look past this game. Jacksonville beat Pittsburgh twice last year, and that just makes this a strong play for us with the visitor. The Jaguars are 11-22 ATS (1 push) in their last 34 home games when they are an underdog. Pittsburgh has covered the spread in 5 straight games, and I just do not believe Jacksonville can beat them again. The road team has covered 5 straight games in this series.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS
7-UNIT TOPS
EAGLES / SAINTS OVER 56 (4:25pm)
VIKINGS +3 (-130) at bears (SNF - 8:20pm)
CHIEFS / RAMS OVER 63.5 (MNF - 8:15pm)

4-UNIT STRONGS
TITANS +1.5 at colts (1pm)
CHARGERS -7 vs broncos (4:05pm)
CARDINALS -5.5 vs raiders (4:05pm)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Warren Sharp

over dallas 48.5
over colts 49
cards -4 -115
vikings +3-120

11/18/18 || 453 Dallas Cowboys Over 48.5 (1 unit)

The last few years, when Sean Lee has been injured and missed games, the Cowboys entire defense fell apart, particularly on the ground. But the Cowboys have been better on the ground this year, thanks to the drafting of Leighton Vander Esch and the health of Jaylon Smith. However, the pass defense has fallen apart completely.

Sean Lee missed weeks 4, 5, 6 and 10 against the Lions, Texans, Jaguars and Eagles. He played weeks 1, 2, 3, 7 and 9 against the Panthers, Giants, Seahawks, Redskins and Titans.

Without Lee, the Cowboys allowed:

Pass: 54% success, 7.4 YPA, 68% completions
Rush: 39% success, 3.6 YPC
With Lee, the Cowboys allowed:

Pass: 43% success, 5.7 YPA, 61% completions
Rush: 46% success, 3.5 YPC
As is evident, the Cowboys run defense is pretty consistent from a YPC perspective. But the dropoff in passing defense is by far the most evident.

The success rate in games missed by Lee increases by a whopping 11%, and the YPA increases by nearly 2.0 YPA. However, when looking specifically at plays this year with and without Lee, opposing offenses are averaging 2.2 YPA more when he is not on the field. That is massive.

It is even worse when you consider the caliber of those passing offenses in games Lee missed:

JAX – #27
DET – #22
PHI – #19
HOU – #12
As is evident, all of these pass offenses were below average, save for the Texans. While Houston only scored 19 points, that final is completely deceiving.

The Texans made 6 (!) trips into the Cowboys red zone but being that the Texans red zone offense is terrible, they only converted 1 of 6 trips into a TD.

Had they converted the rate the Falcons are averaging (69%), 7th best in the NFL, they would have scored 34 points, not 19.

The Falcons don’t just have a good passing offense, they have a great one. It ranks top-5 in the NFL. Needless to say, if the Cowboys defense sans-Sean Lee struggled to stop the likes of 3 below-par NFL passing attacks, they’ll be in terrible position to stop the Falcons.

But things are trending even worse for the Cowboys due to injuries along the defensive line. The Cowboys have 4 on their DL who haven’t practiced yet this week: DE Taco Charlton, DE Daniel Ross, DL David Irving and DT Antwaun Woods.

The Cowboys rank #26 in pass defense this year, which is the 3rd worst pass defense the Falcons have faced. But it’s even worse than that when you consider there is no Sean Lee and the defensive line is beat up.

The Falcons have played 3 pass defenses ranking bottom-10 this year: the Buccaneers, the Saints and the Panthers. They scored 34, 37 and 31 respectively in those 3 games.

On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys offense came to life against the Eagles last week, amassing 27 points. The Eagles defense has typically been very good at home. While 27 points may not sound like a lot, it was the most the Eagles have allowed in their last 17 home games, dating back to 2016. The Eagles haven’t allowed more than 27 points since the 2015 season, and had not allowed more than 24 points since 2016.

While the Falcons see the return of Deion Jones, even with him they have been terrible defending RB passes, and the Cowboys have been using Ezekiel Elliott more and more in the pass game.

The Falcons also rank 31st in the league defending the run, and that should be a big boost for the Cowboys, given the fact they have played the 8th toughest schedule of run defenses this year.

Against the 3 worst run defenses the Cowboys have faced this year (DET, WAS, PHI), two of them played the Cowboys straight up (DET, PHI) and one sold out to stop the run (WAS).

Elliott ran for 152 yds at 6.1 YPC and posted a 64% success rate against DET.

Elliott ran for 151 yds at 7.9 YPC and posted a 47% success rate against PHI.

The Redskins held him in check, but that was because they rank #5 vs explosive rushing and completely sold out to stop the run and used a strong pass rush coupled with the 17th ranked pass defense to prevent much success. Couple that with the Redskins #4 red zone defense to limit the overall scoring and the Cowboys offense didn’t have a great day.

The Falcons won’t have that type of success.

First, Dan Quinn doesn’t sell out to stop the run, that’s not his style. He’s far more likely to play straight up.

Second, the Falcons don’t rank #5 in explosive run defense, they rank #21, and have a worse run defense than the Redskins to begin with (31st run defense).

Third, the Falcons pass rush ranks 5th worst, not close to what the Redskins rank. And the Falcons have the 4th worst pass defense, not close to the Redskins (17th).

Lastly, the Falcons rank 30th in red zone defense. Atlanta has allowed a 75% red zone TD rate this year. It’s astonishing how bad they are in the red zone. They have allowed teams that typically convert 60% in the red zone to convert 15% above that level. It’s the 4th worst variance in the NFL.

With regard to personnel grouping matchups, there are a few edges here as well:

– The Cowboys run a lot from 11 personnel. The Falcons are one of the worst defenses in the NFL defending 11 personnel runs. They allow a 54% success rate and 5.5 YPC, and are much better defending 12 personnel runs.

– The Falcons only pass from 11 personnel 67% of the time, well below average. They pass a lot more than average from 21 personnel. The Cowboys defense is allowing a 56% success rate on passes to 21 personnel.

The Cowboys offense played extremely loose last week. They were more aggressive, went for it on 4th down, and threw the ball downfield more now that Amari Cooper is working himself into the offense.

Atlanta is one of the strongest over teams in the league, given how good their offense has been in the red zone and how bad their defense has been in the red zone.

Dallas has done nothing but play under team after under team of late. They played, their last 4 games: Jacksonville, Washington, Tennessee and Philadelphia. Those 4 teams are 4 of the biggest under teams in the league (although Tennessee is a different team given the improvement of their pass offense). Now the Cowboys finally get to face a team whose passing offense will severely test their own defense and whose defense is pathetic and can be exploited for chunk gains by the Cowboys offense.

Pace and passing also favor this total, as the Falcons are the #1 most pass heavy offense in the NFL and operate at the 10th fastest pace in the NFL.

The Cowboys haven’t played a single team that ranks above average in both pace of play and pass rate. Now they play the Falcons who are #1 most pass heavy with a top-10 pace.

11/18/18 || 461 Tennessee Titans Over 49 (1 unit)

This game is a perfect illustration of why trending data matters as does factoring injuries into priors makes a difference. The Titans are a completely different offense than they were the first half of the season and it is entirely because of Marcus Mariota’s throwing hand, which is fully healed from the nerve damage that he sustained week 1 and prevented him from making two starts and playing far below 100%.

Not only was Mariota injured, but over the first 8 weeks of the season, the Titans played the No. 1 overall most difficult schedule of defenses, including the No. 4 most difficult schedule of pass defenses. They also had a number of brutal offensive line injuries since week 1. It was literally impossible for this pass offense to look good.

Thru week 7’s London game, the Titans were 47% run, the NFL’s 3rd most run-heavy team in the league. On first downs in the first half, they were 60% run, the 2nd most run heavy team (average=48%). The last two weeks they are back down to the NFL average in run rate. Considering the size of their second half leads over the Cowboys and Patriots, some of their second half metrics are skewed, but this team has become far more pass-oriented than it was to start the year.

And they’ve done so surprisingly efficiently. They rank No. 1 in explosive pass offense (rate of pass attempts which gain 20+ yards) and now face the Colts whose pass defense ranks 6th worst in the NFL despite playing an easy schedule and has faced four terrible passing offenses the last month (Bills, Jaguars, Jets and Raiders).

Generally, to get explosive gains you need to have either great route concepts or time in the pocket. The Colts pass rush ranks 6th worst in the NFL and is trending way worse than that. After recording 17 sacks in their first 4 games, they have 4 total sacks in their last 5 games. And that is despite playing the sackable QBs and relatively anemic pass offenses featuring: Blake Bortles (JAX), Derek Carr (OAK), Derek Anderson (BUF) and rookie Sam Darnold (NYJ) in their last 4 games.

The last 5 games, this is what the Colts defense allowed to QBs (apart from Derek Anderson), along with the ranking of these passing offenses:

BUF (#32)
NYJ (#30) Sam Darnold: 24/40 (80%), 9.3 YPA, 63% success, 2:1 TD:INT, 2 sacks
JAC (#27) Blake Bortles: 26/38 (68%), 8.4 YPA, 53% success, 2:0 TD:INT, 0 sacks
OAK (#17) Derek Carr: 21/28 (75%), 8.7 YPA, 57% success, 3:0 TD:INT, 0 sacks
NE (#8) Tom Brady: 34/44 (77%), 7.8 YPA, 68% success, 3:2 TD:INT, 0 sacks
One of the more exciting developments in my mind over the 2nd half of the season is watching what Matt LaFleur does with this Titans offense with a healthy Marcus Mariota. I’ve been down on Mariota as a pro because of issues with consistency and dependability. I’ve believed much of that relates to the offensive scheme that he’s in. And I was hoping 2018 would be different with LaFleur. There’s no doubt over the first half of the year, I was hugely disappointed. But the extraneous factors were impossible to overcome:

The injury to Mariota’s elbow and nerve damage
The injuries to the offensive line
Learning a new offense
Facing the #1 toughest schedule of defenses
Now, those issues are in the past. They’re becoming more pass influenced and they’re operating at a faster tempo.

I cannot wait so see where this offense goes from here, and I think what started in Dallas and continued in Tennessee vs the Patriots will only grow and look better in Indianapolis against this poor Colts defense.

On the other side of the ball, the Titans defense just put a hurting on the Patriots who were without a starting offensive lineman plus Rob Gronkowski, who is a valued pass blocker. The Titans were able to sack Tom Brady 3 times and get pressure on him other times. Pressure on Brady has been a problem so far this year. It’s unsure if it’s the route concepts or the fact Brady is simply getting less mobile in the pocket and more health-aware, but

The Jaguars pass rush hasn’t been hitting home like it was last year, but they still rank No. 2 in pressure rate on the season. And yet Andrew Luck wasn’t sacked one time. Luck has not been sacked once in 126 pass attempts over the last 4 games, and has been hit just 8 times. He leads the NFL in lowest sack rate.

Luck has thrown 3+ TDs in 6 straight games, the longest streak in the NFL since 2007 (a great stat from Rich Hribar).

Tennessee has played an extremely easy schedule of pass blocking offensive lines, facing 3 of the 5 worst lines in the NFL as well as a total of 5 that rank bottom-10. In their other 2 games against top-10 offensive lines, the Titans averaged just 1 sack per game.

The Colts finally had a healthy receiving corps last week, welcoming back Jack Doyle to pair with TY Hilton who missed multiple games this year with injury. The Colts have a very diverse passing attack and it is not dependent on any one receiver. The Titans have faced the 6th easiest schedule of opposing offenses this year. They rank below average in sack rate despite facing the 5th easies schedule of pass protecting offensive lines. They rank 23rd in explosive pass rate allowed the last 3 games despite playing two below average explosive pass offenses in those three games.

Last but not least, there is a stigma that divisional games are bad bets to go over the total. Don’t tell that to the Colts or Titans. When these teams have met for the last 5 years, the first meeting of the season is a perfect 5-0 to the over, and it hasn’t been close.

Those meeting saw an average total of 46 and the average final score hitting the over by 14.2 ppg on average. That’s in excess of the total by a full 2 TDs.

11/18/18 || 470 Arizona Cardinals -4 -115 (1 unit)

One of the most under discussed stories of the season is how the Cardinals defense, left for dead in an era of minimal defense and the loss of the Honey Badger, is playing exceedingly well. How is this for starters:

When the offense is able to possess the ball for at least *some* time to keep the defense rested, and is capable of scoring at least 13 points, the Cardinals have been in EVERY SINGLE GAME.

And that’s regardless of the caliber of opponent. And that’s with a rookie QB early in his career.

Week 3 vs the #10 offense & #1 defense of Chicago: L 14-16 = COVER
Week 4 vs the #11 offense & #10 defense of Seattle: L 17-20 = COVER
Week 5 vs the #27 offense & #18 defense of San Francisco: W 28-18 = COVER
Week 6 vs the #17 offense & #7 defense of Minnesota: L 17-27 = COVER
Week 8 vs the #27 offense & #18 defense of San Francisco: W 18-15 = COVER
Week 10 vs the #1 offense & #25 defense of Kansas City: L 14-26 = COVER
That’s correct – even against some of the NFL’s best teams like the Chiefs, Vikings, Bears (sure, toss Seattle as an above average team) the Cardinals didn’t lose a single game ATS. Their defense kept many of these solid offenses to well below their YTD averages.

And now the Cardinals are trending in a positive manner. They canned Mike McCoy, who insisted on running David Johnson up the middle with regularity and predictability. They introduced Byron Leftwich and this team has looked much better.

In his first game against the 49ers, the sledding wasn’t easy. The 49ers have an underrated defense. The Cardinals were -2 in turnover margin and Josh Rosen took 3 sacks. The 49ers #16 ranked run defense stymied David Johnson. But Josh Rosen battled. And the team fought and clawed and won that game by a FG.

After a bye to further recalibrate the offense, the Cardinals and their rookie QB went into one of the toughest places to play, Kansas City, and once again, Josh Rosen battled. He was sacked 5 times and as a result of the constant pressure, the pass offense didn’t look good. But against the bad run defense of the Chiefs, David Johnson recorded a 67% success rate on the ground and averaged 4.7 YPC.

One consistent element of the Cardinals most recent opponents have been a strong pass rush.

On the season, with a rookie QB, the Cardinals have faced the #3 most difficult schedule of pass rushes in the NFL. Since week 5, the Cardinals have faced the #1 most difficult schedule of run defenses and it hasn’t been close.

Cardinals pass rush DEF

That’s all about to change. The Cardinals are about to face the only bottom-10 pass rush they’ve faced all year. But the Raiders aren’t just any bottom-10 pass rush defense, they are the worst in the NFL.

Their terrible sack rate is a result of terrible pressure. The Raiders also have the NFL’s worst pass defense and guess the schedule of the pass defenses the Cardinals have faced? #1 toughest. The Cardinals have also faced the #1 toughest schedule of third down defenses, and the Raiders rank 3rd worst.

I fully expect this Cardinals offense to look vastly better than what we’ve seen from them of late.

Meanwhile, while there has been a “touch” of fight in the Raiders at home, that vanishes completely on the road. Forget even 2018, this team is 1-10 in their last 11 road games, with just 2 ATS covers in those games. They showed fight in week 2 in Denver and again in week 3 in Miami. But in week 5, in a completely neutral game in LA vs the Chargers (no home field edge) the Chargers stomped them 26-10. Week 6 in London, the team lost 27-3 to Seattle. Their last road game, week 9, was a 34-3 dismantling at the hands of the 49ers of all teams, playing a undrafted QB who didn’t have a single attempt his rookie year and who was playing on a short week.

In his last 3 non-home games, Derek Carr is averaging a 40% success rate, 6.7 YPA and has just 1 passing TD. In 3 full games!

The Raiders traded away WR Amari Cooper. WR Martavis Bryant was lost with a knee (PCL) injury and won’t play this week. WR Jordy Nelson injured his knee week 10 against the Chargers and as of now, there is a chance he could miss this game.

Without receivers, and playing terrible to begin with, here is the big question facing the Raiders offense this week:

After playing the NFL’s 4th easiest schedule of pass rush defenses from weeks 5-10, with multiple teams that rank 26th or worse, what is Derek Carr going to do against the Cardinals #4 ranked pass rush when facing them on the road?

The Raiders pass protection ranks 25th on the year and that comes against the 7th easiest schedule. The Cardinals are the toughest defense they’ve faced this year, ranking #4, and that ranking has been earned: Arizona has played the #10 most difficult schedule of pass protection offensive lines.

11/18/18 || 457 Minnesota Vikings +3 -120 (1 unit)

The Vikings and Bears both have played an extremely easy schedule of opposing offenses, so while both rank top 10 in total efficiency, it will be interesting to see how they fare against one another.

The Bears defense has played 3 games against top-15 offenses so far this year. They lost to the Packers 24-23, they lost to the Patriots 38-31, and they defeated the Seahawks 24-17.

That lone win over the Seahawks was in week 2. Seattle played on the road in primetime in Chicago. But it wasn’t an easy win. The Bears needed 6 sacks from plus an interception return for a TD to beat Seattle. This was a one-score game and Seattle had the ball at their own 46, driving to tie the game in the 4th quarter, when Wilson threw a pick-6.

The Seahawks offense wasn’t even good at the time. They were not adapted to their new offensive system, and dropped their first 2 games of the year.

Minnesota is not currently a top-10 offense, in fact they rank league average. But that is primarily because of a lack of run game without Dalvin Cook. The Vikings offense was one of the most predictable in the NFL, and was far more pass-heavy than it likely should have been behind that offensive line.

But Dalvin Cook came back last week to provide a spark on the ground, carrying the ball 10 times at 8.9 YPC.

Minnesota’s strength this year has been their passing offense. And that has come against 6 top-15 pass defenses in their last 8 games. The Bears are another top-10 pass defense, but it’s not like the Vikings offenses isn’t accustomed to facing stiff competition. But the Bears ranking in pass defense may be a bit misleading.

This team has played just one pass offense that ranked outside the bottom-10 in their last 5 games, and that was the Patriots. Brady sliced up the Bears secondary, recording a 62% success rate on passes, averaging 7.7 YPA with a 108 rating and 3:1 TD:INT ratio.

In their last 7 games, the Bears have played the following terrible pass offenses:

#32 Bills
#31 Cardinals
#30 Jets
#26 Dolphins
#22 Lions (who are actually worse than this considering they no longer had Golden Tate)
It wouldn’t be hard for many defenses to see success against those bad passing offenses.

I think other elements that will impact this result is:

– Mike Zimmer off the bye with 2 weeks to prepare for the Bears creative offense

– The Vikings are 5-1 vs the Bears since 2015, when DC Vic Fangio came to Chicago, and the Vikings offense has averaged over 25 ppg in those games

– The Eagles played the Bears in 2017 and the Eagles scored 31 points, including 24 in the first half. Why is this even important? Because OC John DeFilippo was the QB coach for the Eagles last year and was intimately familiar with the game plan to slice through the Bears defense. Yes, they have better personnel this year, but the Eagles offense still crushed them, with Carson Wentz tossing 3 TDs and with 3 RBs going for at least 5.0 YPC (Blount 97 yds @ 6.5 YPC, Clement 27 yds @ 6.8 YPC, Ajayi 26 yds @ 5.2 YPC).

– Vikings QB has familiarity with Vic Fangio’s defense: In 2017 he passed for 270 yds on just 18 completions (15 yds/comp) and the Redskins offense rushed for 208 yards. In 2015 he passed for 300 yards on 31 attempts (10 YPA). The Redskins won both games, 41-21 and 24-21.

I’m not suggesting the Vikings offense will devour the Bears defense. I think the game will be a test for the Vikings offense. They biggest question mark is adequate protection from their offensive line. But it’s entirely possible for the Vikings to go into Chicago with a game plan which provides an excellent shot at the outright victory.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

3* Kansas City + 3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegasbutcher

3* Chicago bears -2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella

3*

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -1 to LOS ANGELES CHARGERS pk'

3* GOY

Minnesota +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

3* GOM

Minnesota +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Virgobbi Sports

NFL Week 11, 11/18 & 11/19

ATL -3 (-118)
TEN +1.5 (-107)
MIN +2.5 (-105)
KC +3.5 (-115)

[dawggy]

ARTHUR RALPH


Sunday night Super PK Vikings +3
Monsters Atlanta-3, Arizona -4 1/2, TOTAL Play OVER 55 1/2 Eagles/Saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LARRY NESS
PERFECT STORM
PHILADELPHIA

10* ATLANTA
9* DETROIT UNDER
8* colts, chicago