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Spartan
3*
LA RAMS -3
3*
LA RAMS -3
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Stephen Nover
3*
Boston -127Comment
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Tony Chau John Morrison NBA
12-0 YTD
Phoenix {A} bet - This is an unofficial betting series because Phoenix has the worst 10% in road record in the NBAComment
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RyansInvestments
Tulane under 154.5 *10Comment
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Hackman
cbj 128Comment
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Vegasbutcher
3*
Kansas City + 3.5Comment
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OVERUNDEREXPERT
PG2 11/19/18
605PM PT #15
VEG CAL
OVER 6 +100
AT BOVADAComment
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GC: NCAAB
Monday card has the Double perfect NFL Game of the Month, the NBA Total of the Month and a 5* RPI Scale NCAAB System play with a 15-1 Angle. NCAAB Comp play below
The College hoops comp play is on Cincinnati at 7:00 eastern. The Bearcats have covered 3 of 4 as a home favorite from -15 to 18 and the last 4 times when playing off 3 straight spread losses. Tonight they have Western Michigan coming in an the Broncos have failed to cover 5 of 6 with 1 or less day of rest and 12 of 15 after scoring 90 or more. When playing on Mondays they are 0-6 to the spread and have failed to cover 5 of 6 vs winning teams. They likely get blown out here as they will have trouble scoring against this smothering defense. Play on Cincinnati. On Monday we have the NBA Total of the month from a perfect league wide system and the Double perfect NFL Game of the Month. We also have our exclusive 5* RPI Scale system play up . Get on this big Triple play now. Message to jump on.. For the College hoops free pick. Play on Cincy. RV- GC SportsComment
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ESPN+ Best Bets
Where does the betting value lie in Monday's prime-time matchup between the Chiefs and Rams? Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson provide their analysis to help you place your bets.
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams (-3)
Total: 63.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 81 percent picked KC
Sharp: The most anticipated game of the year pits the NFL's No. 1 and No. 2 overall teams in total efficiency. Jared Goff won't have his most reliable weapon in WR Cooper Kupp, and no QB-WR combo has had a higher passer rating this season. Fortunately, the Rams are extremely deep and should have plenty of success when passing to Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods.
While the Chiefs defense ranks No. 25 overall, it is 12th against the pass (but that ranking has come against the NFL's seventh-easiest schedule of passing offenses). No passing offense is near the level of the Rams, and even if they miss Kupp, they should have success on the ground. The Chiefs have the NFL's worst run defense, and Los Angeles' rushing offense is the best in the NFL.
On the other side of the ball, Kansas City's offense also has big edges. The Rams defense ranks slightly better, but not by much. While the Chiefs defense allows the third-highest rate of explosive rushes, which has come against the fourth-best slate explosive-run offenses. The Los Angeles defense has allowed the fourth-highest rate of explosive rushes against worse rush offenses. Look for Kareem Hunt to see plenty of opportunities for big plays.
The biggest problem when facing the Rams defense is avoiding their pass-rush pressure (tops in the NFL), and the Chiefs offensive line is dealing with multiple injuries.
Lean: Chiefs +3.5
Johnson: This matchup is one of the four most likely scenarios to represent the NFC and AFC in the Super Bowl, and these two teams are tied for the league lead in gaining 6.9 yards per play (along with the Chargers). The two leading candidates for the MVP award are Todd Gurley and Patrick Mahomes. The total line at 63.5 points is the highest in the history of the NFL. What is there not to like here?
The most intriguing part of this particular matchup to me is that neither team has a strength or weakness much different than its counterpart. Both are historically elite through the air and dominant in the run game. Both teams are atrocious defending the run (30th and 31st) and middle-of-the-pack against the pass. Sean McVay is an innovative young coach. Andy Reid is still an innovative coach and has adapted as well as anybody over the years.
My projection with the game now being played in Los Angeles (previously Mexico City) is Rams -4.6 with a total of 61.2. I anticipate the total dropping a little, but there isn't enough of a discrepancy in the market and my number to warrant a bet. The side has come down around the market from Rams -3.5 to -3, however, which is somewhat surprising to me considering this was Rams -2.5 when it was expected to be played in Mexico City. Still, Rams -3 is my buy point -- so if you have one available it's worth a bet.
Pick: Rams at -3 or better
Prob bet
Kareem Hunt rushing yards over (-110) or under (-110) 84.5 rushing yards
Hunt has been terrific this season, averaging 4.5 yards per rush and handling a hefty 16.7 carries per game. Still, he's averaging 75.4 rushing yards per game and has cleared 84 yards in only four of 10 games. In fact, he barely cleared 84 yards in three other games (86, 87, 91), with his biggest game a 121-yard effort at Denver.
The Rams have struggled against the run, but this could be a rare game where Kansas City is playing from behind. The Chiefs are the game-script-adjusted No. 3 pass-heaviest offense in the NFL, but they also sport the lowest "expected" pass rate because they have been ahead or tied on a league-high 83 percent of offensive snaps. A closer game or deficit will mean more pass attempts and fewer carries for Hunt. Expect him to be closer to 70 rushing yards in this one.
The pick: Under (-110)Comment
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ATS Trends
Kansas City
Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Chiefs are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Monday games.
Chiefs are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
Chiefs are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games on grass.
Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.
Chiefs are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 road games.
Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Chiefs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss.
Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 11.
Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
L.A. Rams
Rams are 16-40-1 ATS in their last 57 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Rams are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Rams are 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Monday games.
Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.
Rams are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Rams are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 11.
Rams are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
OU Trends
Kansas City
Under is 7-1 in Chiefs last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 road games.
Under is 17-4 in Chiefs last 21 games in Week 11.
Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 Monday games.
Under is 4-1-1 in Chiefs last 6 games on grass.
Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 20-8-1 in Chiefs last 29 games in November.
L.A. Rams
Under is 5-0 in Rams last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games in Week 11.
Over is 7-1 in Rams last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Rams last 7 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Rams last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 10-4 in Rams last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Rams last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 7-3 in Rams last 10 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 11-5 in Rams last 16 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 21-10 in Rams last 31 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Head to Head
Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.Comment
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Robert ferringo
6-Unit Play. Take #540 Georgia State (-4) over St. Bonaventure (5 p.m.)
It's telling that Georgia State is the favorite in this game. They are the smaller team from the smaller conference. Yet on a neutral site they are favored over a team that went to the NCAA Tournament last year. That's because Georgia State is just better. St. Bonaventure has five new starters from last year's team and they are incredibly young. Their two best players are both out with knee injuries and this Bonnies team has not looked good at all. Georgia State has a bunch of good guards and a load of experience. I think that GSU is going to be able to dictate the tempo in this game with their small-ball style and I don't think that St. Bonaventure will be able to keep up.
3-Unit Play. Take #542 Creighton (-5) over Boise State (7:30 p.m.)
Boise State is another team that is kind of starting from scratch this year. They already lost, at home, to Idaho State and were less than impressive in the follow up against Jackson State. Creighton is going to be angry after their home loss to Ohio State and I think that they will be focused and ready to go in this one. Boise State lost their stud, do-it-all player in Chandler Hutchinson from last year's squad. They don't have anyone that can fill that gap, or the gap left by the two other departed starters. Creighton is replacing some key contributors as well. But they are a deeper team that has more to work with. They should wear down Boise in this one.
3-Unit Play. Take #550 Kansas State (-7.5) over Missouri (7:30 p.m.)
Missouri was a three-point underdog against Oregon State. Kansas State is a hell of a lot better than Oregon State, yet the number is not THAT far off. This is the same Missouri team that nearly lost to Kennesaw State on Friday and I think that they will have a letdown after their win over the Beavers. Kansas State is obviously the best team in this field and they are coming off blowout wins over EKU and Penn. They should continue to surge and get another double-digit win against an overmatched opponent here.
1-Unit Play. Take #556 Xavier (+10) over Auburn (2:30 p.m.)
I know Auburn has been wrecking people and I am not high on this Xavier team at all this season. But the Tigers could be overlooking Xavier and looking ahead to their matchup with Duke. Xavier isn't very good. But they are scrappy as hell. This is a really early start out in Maui too and I don't know if the Auburn team is going to be ready to play. I think 10 is a lot of points. Auburn wins but Xavier will make them work for it.
1-Unit Play. Take #558 San Diego State (+16.5) over Duke (5 p.m.)
2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 157.5 San Diego State vs. Duke (5 p.m.)
This is also a ton of points. It is kind of a lot to ask the Blue Devils to just step on the court and win by 20. And Coach K knows that if his team is going to win three games in three days then he is going to have to rest some of his big guns. So if Duke gets up huge in this game they will rest some starters and give SDSU a chance to get in the back door. They have those nice loose rims in Maui and I think that both teams are going to put some points in the board here. I can see this game turning out somewhere around 88-76.
2-Unit Play. Take #572 Richmond (+7.5) over Loyola-Chicago (6:30 p.m.)
I think that Richmond has a chance to win this game outright. I know everyone still loves Loyola from their magical run last postseason. But they are far from unbeatable, as a loss to Furman at home showed. This game is on a neutral court and Richmond has kind of a quirky style that can give some teams fits. I see this as a lower-scoring game and I think the points will hold up.
1-Unit Play. Take #574 Boston College (-7) over Wyoming (9 p.m.)
The Eagles are coming off an ugly home loss to IUPUI. I think they will have a sense of urgency to get the first win in this tournament down in Florida. Wyoming doesn't play well on the road and, frankly, they haven't played well anywhere so far this season, going 1-3 to start the season. If the Eagles can neutralize Justin James then the Cowboys really don't have another option. B.C. should get it together and get this win.
4-Unit Play. Take #578 Temple (-2.5) over VCU (9:30 p.m.)
Temple has not been particularly impressive in their four wins this year. But they have gotten four wins, including a win over a decent Georgia team. Temple hasn't had that breakout yet, but they are gaining momentum from stringing these wins together. It's Fran Dunphy's farewell tour this year and I think the Owls will be motivated to try to win this mini-tournament in Brooklyn. VCU is not the same team when they aren't on their home court and I think they are going to struggle on both ends tonight.
1-Unit Play. Take #581 USC (+6.5) over Texas Tech (9:30 p.m.)
Neither of these teams are very good. But as such, neither should really be laying out points. I can see the Trojans
7-Unit Play. Take #586 Mississippi State (-3.5) over Arizona State (11 p.m.)
Arizona State lost its three best players and three best guards from last year's team. They finally have the size underneath that last year's team so desperately needed. But now they don't have anyone to handle the ball. Mississippi State has enough size and strength to bang with the Sun Devils. But they also have several outstanding, experienced guards. Mississippi State is the deeper, more experienced and more talented team here and I think they will win this one by double digits.
2-Unit Play. Take #590 South Alabama (-6) over SE Missouri State (8 p.m.)
SE Missouri State played well to get two wins in their first two games. But they took yesterday off and now I think that this young team - they start two freshmen and a sophomore - is going to come out flat. South Alabama is one of the most experienced rosters in the country. They had to sit and stew about their no-show against Jacksonville on Saturday, a 71-48 loss in which everything went wrong, and I think that they are going to be the more motivated team today. The fact that they are favored in this matchup is telling and I think USA will end this tournament with a win.
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #574 Boston College (-2) over Wyoming (9 p.m.) AND Take #550 Kansas State (-2.5) over Missouri (7:30 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #546 Northern Iowa (+9.5) over Old Dominion (3 p.m.) AND Take #574 Boston College (-2) over Wyoming (9 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #554 Long Beach State (+9) over Iona (5 p.m.) AND Take #524 Tulsa (-6) over Arkansas-Little Rock (8 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take ##532 Colorado State (+12) over UL-Lafayette (5 p.m.) AND Take #581 USC (+11.5) over Texas Tech (9:30 p.m.)Comment
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Strike Point Sports
7 unit Temple -3Comment
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