Thursday 11-22-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 359680

    #31
    Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-13.5, 59.5)

    This game opened and has stayed -13 at most shop, with Westgate SuperBook opening the game at -12, before it quickly moved up to -13. The total is on the move, too, going from 59 to 60 according to CG Technology. It's likely to eclipse the 60-point barrier, perhaps the third time in NFL history a line closed over 60. It would also be the second time in two weeks this season. Again, it's a new day, and this isn't your grandfather's NFL.
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 359680

      #32
      Reports out of Detroit on Monday are that running back Kerryon Johnson is out for Thursday’s Thanksgiving game against Chicago. Johnson could miss multiple games after suffering a sprained knee on Sunday against Carolina, although the injury isn’t thought to be season-ending. The Lions will go with some combination of LeGarrette Blount, Theo Riddick, and Zach Zenner at running back when they host the Bears.

      Chicago features the top overall defense in DVOA and the second best rushing defense using the same metric, so we’re staying far away from Blount and Zenner. But Riddick has come on as of late in his pass-catching role, getting 52 percent of the snaps since he returned from injury in Week 9 and has hauled in five, six, and seven catches over that time frame. Johnson has been averaging 42.6 snaps per game over his past five and Riddick should see his fair share of those, especially as a four-point home underdog. We’re taking the Over 4.5 on his receptions total for Thursday.
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 359680

        #33
        ATS Trends
        Chicago

        Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
        Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC North.
        Bears are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
        Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
        Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
        Bears are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games in November.
        Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
        Bears are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
        Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
        Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.

        Detroit

        Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
        Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
        Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
        Lions are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games in November.
        Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
        Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
        Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. NFC.
        Lions are 4-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
        Lions are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 12.
        Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

        OU Trends
        Chicago

        Over is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
        Over is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games following a straight up win.
        Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games on fieldturf.
        Over is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games following a ATS win.
        Over is 6-1 in Bears last 7 games overall.
        Over is 6-1 in Bears last 7 games in November.
        Under is 17-5 in Bears last 22 games in Week 12.
        Under is 6-2 in Bears last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
        Over is 12-4 in Bears last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
        Over is 8-3 in Bears last 11 vs. NFC North.

        Detroit

        Over is 6-1 in Lions last 7 Thursday games.
        Over is 5-1 in Lions last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
        Under is 4-1 in Lions last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
        Over is 7-2 in Lions last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
        Over is 6-2 in Lions last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
        Over is 6-2 in Lions last 8 vs. NFC North.
        Over is 5-2 in Lions last 7 games in November.
        Over is 7-3 in Lions last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
        Over is 7-3 in Lions last 10 games following a straight up win.

        Head to Head

        Bears are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
        Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
        Bears are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Detroit.
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 359680

          #34
          ATS Trends
          Washington

          Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 12.
          Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
          Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
          Redskins are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up loss.
          Redskins are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in November.

          Dallas

          Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
          Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC East.
          Cowboys are 4-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
          Cowboys are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.
          Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
          Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
          Cowboys are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 12.

          OU Trends
          Washington

          Over is 6-1 in Redskins last 7 Thursday games.
          Under is 6-1 in Redskins last 7 games following a straight up loss.
          Under is 5-1 in Redskins last 6 road games.
          Under is 4-1 in Redskins last 5 vs. NFC.
          Under is 4-1 in Redskins last 5 vs. NFC East.
          Under is 4-1 in Redskins last 5 games in Week 12.
          Over is 8-3 in Redskins last 11 games in November.
          Under is 10-4 in Redskins last 14 games overall.

          Dallas

          Under is 9-0 in Cowboys last 9 games following a straight up win.
          Under is 7-1 in Cowboys last 8 games following a ATS win.
          Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
          Over is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games in Week 12.
          Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
          Under is 8-2 in Cowboys last 10 vs. NFC.
          Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 vs. NFC East.
          Under is 4-1 in Cowboys last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
          Under is 11-3 in Cowboys last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
          Under is 14-5 in Cowboys last 19 games overall.

          Head to Head

          Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
          Redskins are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Dallas.
          Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings.
          Underdog is 31-10 ATS in their last 41 meetings.
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 359680

            #35
            ATS Trends
            Atlanta

            Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Thursday games.
            Falcons are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
            Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
            Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
            Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.

            New Orleans

            Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
            Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
            Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
            Saints are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
            Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NFC.
            Saints are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
            Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
            Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in November.
            Saints are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
            Saints are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up win.
            Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
            Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
            Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
            Saints are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 vs. NFC South.
            Saints are 11-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
            Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 12.

            OU Trends
            Atlanta

            Over is 5-1 in Falcons last 6 games following a ATS loss.
            Over is 4-1 in Falcons last 5 games following a straight up loss.
            Over is 16-5 in Falcons last 21 games on fieldturf.
            Under is 6-2 in Falcons last 8 road games.
            Under is 23-9 in Falcons last 32 games in November.
            Under is 5-2 in Falcons last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
            Under is 10-4 in Falcons last 14 vs. NFC.
            Under is 10-4 in Falcons last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.

            New Orleans

            Under is 5-0-1 in Saints last 6 Thursday games.
            Over is 4-0 in Saints last 4 vs. NFC South.
            Over is 7-1 in Saints last 8 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
            Over is 7-1 in Saints last 8 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
            Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
            Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
            Over is 16-5 in Saints last 21 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
            Under is 11-4 in Saints last 15 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
            Over is 19-8-1 in Saints last 28 home games.
            Over is 14-6 in Saints last 20 vs. a team with a losing record.
            Over is 7-3 in Saints last 10 vs. NFC.
            Under is 7-3 in Saints last 10 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
            Over is 30-13 in Saints last 43 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
            Over is 13-6 in Saints last 19 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

            Head to Head

            Underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
            Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in New Orleans.
            Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
            Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings in New Orleans.
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 359680

              #36
              Thanksgiving Essentials
              Tony Mejia

              All three Thanksgiving Day contests will be played in closed structures, and the weather in Dallas is expected to be nice enough that they may open the roof, so there will be no mention of weather below. May your turkey be as delightful as the conditions. Enjoy the day. Here's a preview of what variables to be aware of in Thursday's tripleheader:

              Chicago (-3/43.5) at Detroit, 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS: The Bears (7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS) appear to be taking the cautious approach with prized second-year starting QB Mitch Trubisky, who injured his right shoulder late in Sunday night’s 25-20 win over the fading Vikings. Although there’s a belief that he could play if Chicago wanted him to, the team is hoping that taking a week off will help him heal for the stretch run. That doesn’t mean they want to win this Thanksgiving Day opener any less than if they were throwing him out there. Defeating Minnesota gave the Bears a huge edge in an NFC North it leads by 1.5 games over the Vikes and by 2.5 on the Packers. The Lions (4-6, 5-4-1) are bringing up the rear, which makes this game a must-win if they realistically plan to make a run at the playoffs over the season’s final six contests.

              If Trubisky indeed sits this out, Chase Daniel will make his first start since 2014, where he took the field for the Chiefs in place of Alex Smith, who missed the regular-season finale with a lacerated spleen. He’ll be making just his third start of a 10-year career that has seen him sit outside of a snap here and there in stops in New Orleans and Philadelphia since his three-year tenure in Kansas City. Daniel has thrown one pass outside the preseason in the past three seasons and comes in 51-for-78 for 480 yards over his decade in the NFL, owning a single touchdown pass and one interception.

              Daniel has decent wheels and can make plays with his feet, but he’s not the athlete Trubisky is. The expectation is that the offense will consist of short passes that will get the ball in the hands of playmakers like Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel and rookie Anthony Miller, who has really come on of late. With running backs Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard available in addition to tight end Trey Burton, the Bears have plenty of healthy weapons. Only lineman Kyle Long (foot) and backup tight end Adam Shaheen (concussion) are sidelined for a Bears offense that has helped the ‘over’ cash in six of the team’s last seven games despite one of the league’s sturdiest defenses.

              Chicago has surrendered 22 or fewer points in each of its last four games and seven of the past nine and lists only LB Aaron Lynch (concussion) as sidelined. The Bears lead the NFL in turnovers forced (27) and interceptions (18) as they take aim at Matthew Stafford and the Lions for the second time inside two weeks.

              Khalil Mack returned from an injury in Week 9 and had two sacks of Matthew Stafford in a wire-to-wire win that featured six Bears sacks and three takeaways. Even facing a backup quarterback, if the offense can’t protect the football better than it did on Nov. 11, the Lions have no chance at a home upset.

              Stafford has lost his favorite receiver, Golden Tate, to a trade, and his next most experienced target, Marvin Jones, Jr. to a knee injury set to keep him out of this game. Kerryon Johnson, the biggest bright spot in what’s otherwise been a disappointing first season under Matt Patricia. Without Johnson, the Lions will have to divide snaps between Theo Reddick, LeGarrette Blount and Zach Zenner, who all have varying strengths and carry major limitations when compared to what Johnson offered. Tight end Michael Roberts is questionable, so Stafford may be scrounging for weapons.

              If this ends up being a case of Patricia trying to confuse Daniel by taking advantage of his limited preparation time, he’ll have DE Ziggy Ansah and corner Darius Slay in the mix to aid the cause. Defensive tackles Damon Harrison (shoulder) and A’Shawn Robinson (ankle) also look like they’ll go, but it wouldn’t be a bad idea to check prior to the early kickoff.

              The Lions have won nine of 11 in this series and haven’t been swept since 2012, so we’ll see if they show some fight here. Detroit has won four of five Thanksgiving home games but fell last season, 16-13, against Minnesota. It hasn’t dropped consecutive Turkey Day games since 2012, so that might be a theme.


              Washington at Dallas (-7/40.5), 4:30 p.m. ET, FOX: The parade of career backups making their first start of the season continues with Colt McCoy taking the field for the Redskins (6-4, 7-3). This move is expected to be for the duration of the season since Smith suffered a compound fracture in breaking his fibula and tibia in a 23-21 loss against the Texans.

              McCoy will be backed up by Mark Sanchez, who will be extending his streak of spending Thanksgiving even years on the sideline at AT&T Stadium to three after being out there in ’14 and ’16. In ’12, he was out on the field becoming the butt of jokes through the rest of time with an ill-timed fumble. It would be wild if he makes an appearance this season.

              If all goes according to plan for Washington, this will be McCoy’s show throughout, hopefully with him taking a knee in victory formation. Winning would pad the team’s NFC East lead to two games over the Cowboys (5-5, 4-4-2) and 2.5 over the defending champion Eagles, who host the Giants on Sunday.

              Pulling off an upset here wouldn’t just take an immense amount of pressure off McCoy and this transition the team has been forced to make in a matter of days before hitting the road, it would give the ‘Skins a chance. They’ll play in Philly to open December and still have to play at Jacksonville and Tennessee against defenses that have proven they can lock up an opposing passing game.

              McCoy threw for a score in last week’s loss and led a pair of scoring drives, so he’s much further along than Chicago’s Daniel. The former third-round pick started the first 21 games of his career for Cleveland and and threw 20 touchdown passes and 20 interceptions. He’s started in four of his eight games with Washington since signing there in 2014 and beat the Cowboys in his first start, so the 32-year-old should be able to handle the spotlight in Arlington.

              If he succeeds, it will have to be without RB Chris Thompson (ribs) and WR Jamison Crowder (ankle), who remain sidelined. Top receiver Paul Richardson (shoulder) was lost for the season at the beginning of the month, so McCoy will be without his most talented pass-catchers like Smith has been the past few weeks. He does however have great familiarity with Josh Doctson and Maurice Harris since they put in a lot of practice time in, so that could be something for Dallas to be concerned with.

              The Cowboys have surrendered 20 or fewer points in five of the last six games and rank 10th with 28 sacks. Washington hasn’t scored more than 21 points since Sept. 23 and has fallen short of that figure in seven of nine. McCoy will need to lean on Adrian Peterson, who has struggled since closing October with a 149-yard game against the Giants. In three November contests, the veteran running back has gained just 136 yards on 41 carries and has really lacked explosiveness. We’ll see if the native Texan can rebound in a matchup that really boils down to how much fight the ‘Skins have in them as they fight an uphill battle from a continuity standpoint.

              It would help matters if left tackle Trent Williams can return from a shoulder injury. Fellow tackles Morgan Moses and Ty Nsehke should play, so the offensive line should be improved as they try and keep the new starter clean. The Cowboys also have some uncertainty up front with Tyron Smith (stinger) questionable. Center Travis Frederick remains out with an illness. Linebacker Sean Lee is also still sidelined due to a hamstring injury while defensive lineman David Irving has been ruled out with a bum ankle. Defensive linemen Taco Charlton and Maliek Collins are questionable.

              Washington won in Week 7, posting a 20-17 result thanks to 99 rushing yards from Peterson and a Preston Smith fumble recovery in the end zone, one of many plays he’s made on that side of the ball. Ezekiel Elliott was able to gain just 33 yards on 15 carries and caught two passes for nine yards. Since that loss, he’s compiled 500 yards of total offense, making 17 catches and running for 334 yards. Dallas has won eight of 11 in the series and will be looking to avoid being swept by the ‘Skins for the first time since 2012. The road team is 7-2 ATS over the last nine meetings.


              Atlanta at New Orleans (-12.5/60), 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC: The Saints (9-1, 8-2) were almost certainly rooting for the Chiefs in Monday night’s epic fireworks show since a Rams loss would’ve given them a commanding lead in the race for homefield advantage in the NFC. As things stand, they would host a conference championship game if they win out and stay ahead of L.A., but a difficult schedule awaits that includes three straight road games at Dallas, Tampa Bay and Carolina. They close out the season hosting the Steelers and Panthers, teams likely to be wrapping up playoff berths, so it’s very possible that this game against the Falcons (4-6, 3-7) will be the final time we see them favored by so many points.

              That’s pretty ironic considering the history between the teams as fiercely competitive rivals and the fact that they played to a memorable 43-37 overtime result just two months ago in Week 3. The teams traded the lead four times in the fourth quarter before the Saints evened it up and ultimately won in OT. Brees ran it in for both the game-tying and game-clinching scores. Matt Ryan threw five touchdown passes. Rookie Calvin Ridley caught three of them. Alvin Kamara made 15 receptions.

              So, yes, the total here is 60. Given what we saw in Monday’s 54-51 explosion, it seems logical despite being the second-largest of the season. The Saints scored 40 or more points for the sixth time in Sunday’s 48-7 rout of the Eagles and only saw that game come in under the posted total due to Philadelphia’s ineptitude. Atlanta has sputtered some of late but has still topped the 30-point mark five times this season. Three of the past five meetings have produced at least 70 points.

              Atlanta ranks 29th of 32 teams in surrendering 284 passing yards per game and ranks 27th in points allowed (27.0 ppg). Hopes that top linebacker Deion Jones would be able to return from a foot injury suffered in the Week 1 Thursday night opener were dashed when he was ruled out on Wednesday. Corner Desmond Trufant and LB De’Vondre Campbell are expected to play through thigh injuries. NFL interception leader Demonate Kazee and fellow corner Robert Alford are questionable.

              The Saints will have most of their team intact. Tackle Terron Armstead has been ruled out due to a shoulder injury, but tackle Andrus Peat, center Max Unger and guard Larry Warford should all play. Rookie WR Tre’Quan Smith, who caught 10 passes against the Eagles, is questionable with a foot issue, while impressive first-year DE Marcus Davenport is dealing with an injured toe.

              The Saints are looking for their third straight win over the Falcons for the first time since 2012. They’re chasing their first season sweep of Atlanta since ’13 and need to put in serious work to increase their run of consecutive covers to nine. The streak began in the OT win, as New Orleans was a 1.5-point underdog.
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 359680

                #37
                Total Talk - Thanksgiving
                Chris David

                This year’s Thanksgiving Day slate will feature three NFC divisional games and all of them happen to be rematches as well. Through 48 divisional contests played in this year’s regular season, the ‘under’ holds a 46-42 mark and those results have seen a lot of back-and-forth streaks.

                Chicago at Detroit (CBS, 12:30 p.m. ET)

                Bookmaker.eu sent out a total of 46 ½ and the number is listed at 43 ½ as of Wednesday afternoon. The reason for the drop is directly related to Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who is listed as ‘doubtful’ with a shoulder injury. If doesn’t go, backup Chase Daniel will be the guy and he’s only had two career starts, both coming in meaningless Week 17 games during his tenure with Kansas City.

                These teams just met in Week 10 from Soldier Field and Chicago captured a 34-22 wire-to-wire win and the ‘over’ (44 ½) cashed midway through the fourth quarter. The Bears built a 26-7 lead at halftime and quarterback Mitchell Trubisky had one of his best games, completing 23-of-30 (77%) of his passes for 355 passing yards and three touchdowns. Chicago couldn’t run the ball (54 yards) on Detroit and knowing Daniel will likely get touches, you would believe that favors the Lions defense.

                At the same time, it’s hard to imagine Detroit doing anything against Chicago’s defense (19.5 PPG, 314 YPG) and it couldn’t muster up much against the Bears in the first game. However, Lions QB Matthew Stafford aka “Stat Padford” did what he’s good at and compiled meaningless numbers late to make the game seem closer than it appeared.

                Fast forward to Thursday’s rematch and Chicago enters this game with a 6-1 ‘over’ run but a couple of those tickets could’ve gone the other way, which includes last week’s meeting on Sunday Night vs. Minnesota. Also, the Bears have seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 on the road this season but again – the high side winners were fortunate to connect in all of those games.

                Detroit enters this game on a 3-1 ‘under’ run and its sputtering offense (16.3 PPG) has played a part in those results. While the Lions were outgained (387-309) last week to the Panthers, the defense did play a lot better and they controlled the clock behind running back Kerryon Johnson (knee) but he’s ‘doubtful’ to play on the short week. Knowing Chicago leads the league in rushing defense (77.8 YPG) and the unit has only allowed two rushing touchdowns this season makes you believe Detroit could have issues on Thursday.

                Prior to the first meeting this season, the ‘under’ was on a 4-1 run in this series and Chicago has had trouble scoring at Ford Field with just 10 and 17 in its last two trips to Michigan.

                Washington at Dallas (FOX, 4:30 p.m. ET)

                This total is hovering between 40 and 41 points as of Wednesday and most bettors are showing a slight lean to the ‘under’ in the late afternoon matchup. Washington and Dallas both enter this game with identical 6-4 ‘under’ records and that includes the outcome from their Week 7 outcome. The Redskins captured a 20-17 win over the Cowboys in a game that was tied 7-7 at halftime. The ‘over’ (40 ½) had a shot but Dallas missed a late field goal that would’ve forced overtime.

                Neither team did much offensively and the Redskins will be turning to backup QB Colt McCoy after Alex Smith was knocked out for the season last week with a leg injury. The former Texas Longhorns standout has gone 16-21 as a starter in his career and he hasn’t suited up in that role since 2014. Ironically, his last win as a starter came at Dallas and the Redskins won 20-17 behind some quality numbers (25-of-33, 299 yards) from McCoy. Will the Lone Star kid steal the show again on the holiday?

                Buying that narrative is tough for a couple reasons. First, the Redskins have no major offensive weapons outside of tight end Jordan Reed. Second, this Dallas defense (331 YPG, 19 PPG) is legit especially against the run (95 YPG). The Cowboys unit also fits into the ‘bend but don’t break’ style and they’ve often forced teams into settling for field goals (17) instead of touchdowns (19).

                Expecting the Dallas offense (20.3 PPG) to light up the scoreboard could be wishful thinking but it has shown better numbers at home (25 PPG) and this Redskins defense isn't in great form. Tampa Bay lit them up for 501 total yards at home in Week 10 and Atlanta put up 491 yards at FedEx Field in Week 9. Houston, not a great offensive team, was held in check last week by Washington but I'm still weary to expect a quick fix. The Cowboys have seen the ‘over’ go 3-1 AT&T Stadium.

                Prior to the ‘under’ result earlier this season, the ‘over’ was on a 5-0 run in this series and one of those outcomes took place on Thanksgiving Day in 2016 with Dallas earning a 31-26 over Washington.

                Atlanta at New Orleans (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

                Oddsmakers are expecting a shootout in the late-night tilt from the Superdome and before we look at the matchup, be aware that this primetime slot on the holiday hasn’t produced the fireworks that some may’ve hoped for.

                This will be the 13th season that the NFL will have a night game on Thanksgiving Day and the 'under' has cashed the last four years and the low side is 8-4 overall. For those playing sides, home teams have gone 8-4 while favorites own a 10-2 straight up and 9-3 against the spread mark. Also, nine of the 12 margins came by double digits.

                Another blowout is expected this season with New Orleans listed as a 13-point home favorite. When the pair met in Week 3 from Atlanta, the Saints dropped the Falcons 43-37 in overtime as 1 ½-point road underdogs. The ‘over’ (54) was never in doubt and the combined 80 points was the highest ever posted in this series.

                The rematch is starting at a total of 60, which seems inflated but nobody has been able to stop the Saints (37.8 PPG) this season. Plus, the team has posted 48 PPG in their last three games. While New Orleans has been on fire, Atlanta’s offense (17.5) has been anything but in its last two games and their numbers on the road (20.8 PPG) have been ugly. If you take out a 38-point effort at Washington in Week 9, the average falls to 15 points per game on the road.

                After seeing 80 points posted in the first encounter, my handicapping usually reverts to the opposite outcome in the second go ‘round. While that can be dangerous for this particular matchup and we’ve seen a slew of ‘over’ winners on Thursday (8-3) this season, I’d be very surprised to see another crooked number posted again. Make a note that we’ve seen these teams play on Thursday’s twice in the past three seasons and the ‘under’ cashed in both games (20-17, 31-21).

                Fearless Predictions

                As I’ve written many times before in previous holiday installments, if you’re reading this then you’re probably betting and for that, be thankful that you can. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!

                Best Over: Washington-Dallas 40 ½
                Best Under: Atlanta-New Orleans 60
                Best Team Total: Under Chicago 23 ½

                Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105):
                Under 51 Chicago-Detroit
                Over 33 Washington-Dallas
                Under 67 ½ Atlanta-New Orleans
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 359680

                  #38
                  NFL
                  Dunkel

                  Week 12


                  Thursday, November 22

                  Chicago @ Detroit

                  Game 105-106
                  November 22, 2018 @ 12:30 pm

                  Dunkel Rating:
                  Chicago
                  134.744
                  Detroit
                  135.065
                  Dunkel Team:
                  Dunkel Line:
                  Dunkel Total:
                  Detroit
                  Even
                  49
                  Vegas Team:
                  Vegas Line:
                  Vegas Total:
                  Chicago
                  by 3
                  43 1/2
                  Dunkel Pick:
                  Detroit
                  (+3); Over

                  Washington @ Dallas

                  Game 107-108
                  November 22, 2018 @ 4:30 pm

                  Dunkel Rating:
                  Washington
                  129.258
                  Dallas
                  131.659
                  Dunkel Team:
                  Dunkel Line:
                  Dunkel Total:
                  Dallas
                  by 2 1/2
                  37
                  Vegas Team:
                  Vegas Line:
                  Vegas Total:
                  Dallas
                  by 7 1/2
                  41
                  Dunkel Pick:
                  Washington
                  (+7 1/2); Under

                  Atlanta @ New Orleans

                  Game 109-110
                  November 22, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

                  Dunkel Rating:
                  Atlanta
                  135.016
                  New Orleans
                  143.927
                  Dunkel Team:
                  Dunkel Line:
                  Dunkel Total:
                  New Orleans
                  by 9
                  63
                  Vegas Team:
                  Vegas Line:
                  Vegas Total:
                  New Orleans
                  by 13
                  60 1/2
                  Dunkel Pick:
                  Atlanta
                  (+13); Over
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                  Comment

                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 359680

                    #39
                    NFL

                    Week 12

                    Thursday
                    Bears (7-3) @ Lions (4-6)—Sounds like Bears’ backup QB Chase Daniel (9 years/2 starts in NFL) gets nod here, with Trubisky hurt. Chicago won/covered its last four games; they’re 2-2 on road, with wins 16-14 in Arizona, 41-9 in Buffalo. Bears have 10 takeaways (+6) in last three games. Last five years, Bears are 1-3 as road favorites, 1-2 this year. Lions (+6.5) lost 34-22 in Chicago two weeks ago, turning ball over three times (-3) in game where Bears averaged 11.2 yards/pass attempt, with three TD plays of 26+ yards. Detroit is still 9-2 in last 11 series games; Bears lost their last five visits to the Motor City. Lions lost three of last four games; they’re 3-2 at home, 5-8 ATS in last 13 games as home dogs (2-0 this year) Over is 6-1 in last seven Chicago games; under is 3-1 in Detroit’s last four. Lions won four of last five Thanksgiving Day games.

                    Redskins (6-4) @ Cowboys (5-5)— QB Alex Smith broke his leg LW; Colt McCoy is new starter, Mark Sanchez is the new backup. Washington is 3-1 on road; they’re 13-10 in last 23 games as road underdogs, 2-1 this year. Redskins won four of last six games (+11 in turnovers in those games). Cowboys ran ball for 171-132 yards in first two games with new OL coach; they’re 3-1 at home. Under Garrett, Cowboys are 15-30 vs spread as home favorites, 1-2 this year. Dallas (+1.5) lost 20-17 at Redskins in Week 7; Cowboys were -2 in turnovers (0-2) with one of turnovers run back for a TD. Dallas won six of last eight series games; Redskins lost 31-26/38-14 in last two visits here. Four of last six Redskin games stayed under;

                    Falcons (4-6) @ Saints (9-1)— New Orleans won last nine games (8-1 vs spread) since opening loss to Bucs. In last three games, Saints scored 45-51-48 points (18 TDs on 29 drives), averaging over 9.5 yds/pass attempt all three games. Since 2014, NO is 11-18-1 as home favorite, 2-2 this year. Falcons lost last two games, scoring 16-19 points; they’re 1-3 on road, with losses by 6-6-24-12 points. Under Quinn, Atlanta is 7-4 as road underdog, 1-1 this year. Saints won first meeting 43-37 in OT in Atlanta in Week 3, with 10 TD’s scored on 23 drives, with no turnovers. These rivals split last 12 meetings; Falcons lost five of last seven visits to Bourbon Street. Series has been swept four of last five years. Under is 3-1 in Atlanta’s last four games.
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                    Comment

                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 359680

                      #40
                      NFL INJURY UPDATE

                      Lions WR Marvin Jones (Knee) will not play in today's Thanksgiving matchup against the Bears.
                      Current Odds:
                      Bears -3
                      Total 43.5


                      For those Thanksgiving warriors up early to get a turkey in the oven, here's a look at current odds and consensus for today's three NFL games:
                      Bears (59% of bets) at Lions (+3, 43.5)
                      Redskins (53% of bets) at Cowboys (-7, 41)
                      Falcons (45% of bets) at Saints (-12.5, 60)
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                      Comment

                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 359680

                        #41
                        NCAAB
                        Long Sheet

                        Thursday, November 22

                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                        OKLAHOMA (4 - 0) vs. WISCONSIN (4 - 0) - 11/22/2018, 1:30 PM
                        There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        WISCONSIN is 1-0 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA over the last 3 seasons
                        WISCONSIN is 1-0 straight up against OKLAHOMA over the last 3 seasons
                        1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                        DAYTON (4 - 0) vs. VIRGINIA (4 - 0) - 11/22/2018, 4:00 PM
                        There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                        FLORIDA (2 - 2) vs. STANFORD (2 - 2) - 11/22/2018, 7:00 PM
                        There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        FLORIDA is 1-0 against the spread versus STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
                        FLORIDA is 1-0 straight up against STANFORD over the last 3 seasons
                        1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                        BUTLER (3 - 1) vs. MIDDLE TENN ST (3 - 2) - 11/22/2018, 9:30 PM
                        There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        BUTLER is 1-0 against the spread versus MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
                        BUTLER is 1-0 straight up against MIDDLE TENN ST over the last 3 seasons
                        0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                        VILLANOVA (2 - 2) vs. CANISIUS (1 - 2) - 11/22/2018, 1:30 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        VILLANOVA is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
                        VILLANOVA is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
                        VILLANOVA is 29-15 ATS (+12.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
                        VILLANOVA is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
                        VILLANOVA is 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) in November games since 1997.
                        VILLANOVA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
                        VILLANOVA is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
                        VILLANOVA is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
                        VILLANOVA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.


                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                        OKLAHOMA ST (2 - 1) vs. MEMPHIS (2 - 1) - 11/22/2018, 4:00 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        OKLAHOMA ST is 121-89 ATS (+23.1 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
                        OKLAHOMA ST is 123-87 ATS (+27.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
                        MEMPHIS is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after scoring 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons.


                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                        COLL OF CHARLESTON (3 - 1) vs. LSU (4 - 0) - 11/22/2018, 7:00 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        COLL OF CHARLESTON is 64-34 ATS (+26.6 Units) in road games after a non-conference game since 1997.
                        COLL OF CHARLESTON is 63-35 ATS (+24.5 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1997.
                        COLL OF CHARLESTON is 34-19 ATS (+13.1 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.


                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        LSU is 1-0 against the spread versus COLL OF CHARLESTON over the last 3 seasons
                        LSU is 1-0 straight up against COLL OF CHARLESTON over the last 3 seasons
                        1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                        UAB (3 - 0) vs. FLORIDA ST (3 - 0) - 11/22/2018, 9:30 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        UAB is 50-77 ATS (-34.7 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997.
                        UAB is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games against ACC opponents since 1997.
                        FLORIDA ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
                        FLORIDA ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.


                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                        S ILLINOIS (2 - 2) vs. MASSACHUSETTS (3 - 2) - 11/22/2018, 1:30 PM
                        There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                        TULSA (4 - 0) vs. NEVADA (4 - 0) - 11/22/2018, 4:00 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        NEVADA is 43-27 ATS (+13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
                        NEVADA is 43-27 ATS (+13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
                        NEVADA is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
                        NEVADA is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
                        NEVADA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
                        NEVADA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
                        NEVADA is 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.


                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                        TEXAS (4 - 0) vs. N CAROLINA (5 - 0) - 11/22/2018, 7:30 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        TEXAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
                        N CAROLINA is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last 2 seasons.
                        N CAROLINA is 312-252 ATS (+34.8 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
                        N CAROLINA is 177-138 ATS (+25.2 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
                        N CAROLINA is 177-137 ATS (+26.3 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.


                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                        MICHIGAN ST (3 - 1) vs. UCLA (4 - 0) - 11/22/2018, 10:00 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        MICHIGAN ST is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.


                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                        LASALLE (0 - 4) vs. MIAMI (3 - 0) - 11/22/2018, 2:30 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        LASALLE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
                        MIAMI is 22-37 ATS (-18.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
                        MIAMI is 22-37 ATS (-18.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
                        MIAMI is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.


                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        MIAMI is 0-0 against the spread versus LASALLE over the last 3 seasons
                        MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against LASALLE over the last 3 seasons
                        1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                        NORTHWESTERN (3 - 0) vs. FRESNO ST (1 - 1) - 11/22/2018, 5:00 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        NORTHWESTERN is 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
                        FRESNO ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.
                        FRESNO ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
                        FRESNO ST is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in a neutral court game where the total is 135 to 139.5 since 1997.


                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                        SETON HALL (1 - 2) vs. GRAND CANYON (3 - 1) - 11/22/2018, 9:00 PM
                        There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                        HAWAII (3 - 1) vs. UTAH (2 - 1) - 11/22/2018, 11:30 PM
                        There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        UTAH is 2-0 against the spread versus HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
                        UTAH is 2-0 straight up against HAWAII over the last 3 seasons
                        2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                        UC-RIVERSIDE (1 - 3) at PACIFIC (3 - 2) - 11/22/2018, 3:30 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        UC-RIVERSIDE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
                        PACIFIC is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons.


                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        UC-RIVERSIDE is 1-0 against the spread versus PACIFIC over the last 3 seasons
                        PACIFIC is 1-0 straight up against UC-RIVERSIDE over the last 3 seasons
                        1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




                        --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                        ABILENE CHRISTIAN (3 - 0) vs. ELON (2 - 1) - 11/22/2018, 6:00 PM
                        Top Trends for this game.
                        ELON is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
                        ELON is 9-21 ATS (-14.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
                        ELON is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.


                        Head-to-Head Series History
                        There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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                        Comment

                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 359680

                          #42
                          NCAAB

                          Thursday, November 22

                          Battle for Atlantis
                          Oklahoma beat Florida 48-28 on boards, surviving 4-18 day on arc in 65-60 win over Gators on Wednesday. Sooners is #25 experience team that starts three seniors who are probably trying to prove they can win without Trey Young. Oklahoma is 4-0, playing pace #17- only two of their guys played 30:00+ yesterday. Wisconsin is 4-0 with top 100 wins over Xavier/Stanford, allowing 59 ppg; Badgers are #20 team in country in Minutes Continuity- their eFG% defense is #18. Big 14 favorites are 10-6 vs spread away from home; Big X underdogs are 2-0.

                          Virginia pounded on Middle Tennessee 74-52; they start four juniors and a soph, are experience team #228- they’re playing 2nd-slowest tempo in country, are forcing turnovers 24.5% of time. Dayton shot 63% inside arc in 69-64 upset win over Butler; Flyers are #280 experience team that played four starters 31:00+ yesterday- they’re shooting 61% inside arc while playing #304 tempo. Dayton starts two sophs, two juniors. ACC favorites are 12-7 vs spread away from home; A-14 underdogs are 7-11.

                          Florida split its first four games; they were held to 60 points in both their losses. Gators’ best win was over #193 LaSalle. Florida made 11-28 on arc (39.3%) yesterday, after going 17-65 (26.2%) in their first three games. Gators are #257 experience team that has forced turnovers 24% of time- only two of their guys played more than 28:00 yesterday. Stanford lost its last two games by 18-16 points; Cardinal is #339 experience team that started three sophs, couple of frosh yesterday. Stanford was 2-18 on arc yesterday; they played three guys 31:00+.

                          Butler is #88 experience team that never led in upset loss to Dayton yesterday; Bulldogs were 7-23 on arc, they start two juniors, two seniors, but Dayton shot 63% inside arc against them. Butler beat Ole Miss by 7 Friday; Rebels are coached by Kermit Davis, who coached Middle Tennessee the last 16 years. MTSU got whacked 74-52 by Virginia yesterday; Blue Raiders are 1-2 vs D-I teams, with losses by 19-22 points. MTSU is #274 experience team that starts only one senior- their only D-I win was by 3 over #230 Charleston Southern.

                          Advocare tournament, Orlando
                          Villanova lost its last two games, scoring 46-68 points vs Michigan/Furman; Wildcats are #195 experience team that is starting three sophs- they’ve turned ball over 21.2% of time, are making only 32% of its 3-pointers. Canisius is 1-2, losing last game by 32 at Florida State- they also lost at home to Albany. Golden Griffins start three sophs, two juniors, are #133 experience team- their eFG% defense is in bottom 10 in country. Big East favorites are 5-6 vs spread away from home. MAAC underdogs are 7-8 vs spread this month.

                          Memphis is 2-1, coming off double OT home win over Yale; their only loss was by 9 at LSU. Tigers are #151 experience team that is starting two frosh, two seniors- they’ve forced turnovers 25.9% of time in first three games, but made only 28.6% of their 3’s. Oklahoma State is off to a 2-1 start; they blew a 24-point lead in their loss. Cowboys are #332 experience team that starts two frosh, three juniors- they’ve turned ball over 21.2% of time, but also forced miscues 24% of time. Big X favorites are 6-6 vs spread away from home; AAC underdogs are 7-6.

                          LSU is off to a 4-0 start, with last three wins vs teams in top 125 (schedule #242- all the games were at home); Bayou Bengals are starting two frosh and a soph- they’re shooting 61.3% inside arc, only 29.8% on 3-pointers. LSU is #319 experience team whose eFG% defense is #260. Charleston is #237 experience team that is making only 23.9% of its 3’s; Cougars play one of 20 slowest tempos in country- their only loss was by 12 at Oklahoma State. CAA underdogs are 10-9 away from home. SEC favorites are 6-6.

                          Florida State won its first three games by 21-11-32 points, with an 81-60 win over Florida; Seminoles are experience team #101 that starts three seniors. FSU made 42.9% of its 3’s this month. UAB won its first two D-I games over Mercer/New Orleans by 8-7 points; Blazers made only 21.1% of their 3’s so far, 4th-worst in country. UAB is forcing turnovers 24.7% of time (#22); they start a frosh and two sophs; they’re experience team #212 whose bench plays very few minutes. Conference USA underdogs are 8-13 vs spread away from home.

                          Orleans Arena, Las Vegas
                          Southern Illinois split its first four games, with wins over teams ranked #344/296; Salukis are #17 experience team that was up 7 at Kentucky with 14:19 left (they lost by 12). SIU starts four seniors, one junior- they’re turning ball over 24.7% of time, but making 39.7% of their 3’s so far. UMass is 3-2 vs 5th-easiest schedule in country; Minutemen start three juniors and one senior- they scored 83+ points in their three wins, 71-63 in their losses. A-14 underdogs are 7-10 vs spread away from home; MVC favorites are 3-6 this month.

                          Nevada Wolf Pack isn’t too popular in rival UNLV’s town, but they’re 4-0 this season with all four wins by 16+ points. Wolf Pack are #2 experience team in county that starts five seniors; they’re eFG% defense is #15 in country. This is Nevada’s first road game. Tulsa is 4-0 vs the 4th-easiest schedule in country so far; Golden Hurricane is #132 experience team whose bench plays a lot (#22 minutes). Tulsa hasn’t played team in top 200 yet. Mountain West favorites are 7-7 vs spread this season; AAC underdogs are 7-6.

                          T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas (good weekend for basketball in Vegas)
                          North Carolina is 5-0 vs schedule #226; best team they’ve played is #100 Stanford, their closest win was by 11 at Elon. Tar Heels are playing tempo #11; the bench is playing 10th-most minutes in country, but Texas is by far best them they’ve played. Longhorns are 4-0 with three wins over stiffs and an OT win over Arkansas on a neutral floor; Texas is #254 experience team whose bench is playing #52 minutes- they’ve made only 29.3% of their 3’s so far. ACC favorites are 12-7 vs spread away from home; Big X underdogs are 2-0.

                          Michigan State lost its opener by 5 to Kansas on neutral floor, then won last three games by 24-21-68 points- none of those teams are ranked in top 200. Spartans are #100 experience team whose bench is playing #77 minutes- their eFG% defense is #29 in country. UCLA lost two of its freshmen to injury; they’ve beaten four stiffs to start season (schedule #324). Bruins are #351 experience team; they’re tallest team in America, but they only load Presbyterian by 3 with 7:40 left in their last game Monday, which is a red flag.

                          Cal-State Fullerton tourney
                          Hawai’i is off to a 3-1 start, losing by 17 at home to North Texas in their only game vs a top 200 team; Rainbows are #121 experience team that is starting three seniors; their opponents have made only 23.2% of its 3’s so far this month. lost by 9 at Minnesota and beat on a couple of stiffs (schedule #344); Utes are #227 experience team whose bench is playing #19 minutes- they’ve made 39.5% of their 3-pointers. Pac-12 favorites are 7-3 vs spread away from home; Big West underdogs are 9-11 vs spread.
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                          Comment

                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 359680

                            #43
                            NCAAB

                            Thursday, November 22

                            Trend Report


                            Villanova @ Canisius
                            Villanova

                            Villanova is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
                            The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Villanova's last 5 games

                            Canisius

                            Canisius is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
                            Canisius is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

                            Southern Illinois @ UMass
                            Southern Illinois

                            The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Southern Illinois's last 8 games

                            UMass

                            The total has gone OVER in 16 of UMass's last 18 games
                            UMass is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

                            Oklahoma @ Wisconsin
                            Oklahoma

                            Oklahoma is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
                            The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma's last 8 games

                            Wisconsin

                            Wisconsin is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games
                            Wisconsin is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

                            La Salle @ Miami
                            La Salle

                            The total has gone OVER in 4 of La Salle's last 6 games
                            La Salle is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games

                            Miami

                            The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games
                            Miami is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

                            Oklahoma State @ Memphis
                            Oklahoma State

                            The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma State's last 6 games
                            Oklahoma State is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games

                            Memphis

                            Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
                            Memphis is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games

                            UC Riverside @ Pacific
                            UC Riverside

                            The total has gone UNDER in 7 of UC Riverside's last 8 games on the road
                            UC Riverside is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pacific

                            Pacific

                            Pacific is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing UC Riverside
                            Pacific is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against UC Riverside

                            Tulsa @ Nevada
                            Tulsa

                            Tulsa is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
                            The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tulsa's last 7 games

                            Nevada

                            The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Nevada's last 5 games
                            Nevada is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tulsa

                            Dayton @ Virginia
                            Dayton

                            Dayton is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
                            The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dayton's last 9 games

                            Virginia

                            Virginia is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
                            The total has gone OVER in 6 of Virginia's last 8 games

                            Northwestern @ Fresno State
                            Northwestern

                            The total has gone OVER in 5 of Northwestern's last 7 games
                            Northwestern is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games

                            Fresno State

                            Fresno State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

                            Elon @ Abilene Christian
                            Elon

                            Elon is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games

                            Abilene Christian

                            No trends to report

                            College of Charleston @ LSU
                            College of Charleston

                            College of Charleston is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games
                            The total has gone OVER in 10 of College of Charleston's last 15 games

                            LSU

                            LSU is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
                            The total has gone OVER in 8 of LSU's last 11 games

                            Florida @ Stanford
                            Florida

                            The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Florida's last 17 games
                            Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

                            Stanford

                            Stanford is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games

                            North Carolina @ Texas
                            North Carolina

                            North Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
                            The total has gone OVER in 6 of North Carolina's last 7 games when playing Texas

                            Texas

                            Texas is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing North Carolina
                            Texas is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing North Carolina

                            UAB @ Florida State
                            UAB

                            UAB is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

                            Florida State

                            Florida State is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
                            Florida State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

                            Seton Hall @ Grand Canyon
                            Seton Hall

                            Seton Hall is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games
                            The total has gone OVER in 10 of Seton Hall's last 15 games

                            Grand Canyon

                            Grand Canyon is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
                            The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Grand Canyon's last 7 games

                            Butler @ Middle Tennessee
                            Butler

                            Butler is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
                            Butler is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games

                            Middle Tennessee

                            Middle Tennessee is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games

                            UCLA @ Michigan State
                            UCLA

                            UCLA is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
                            The total has gone UNDER in 4 of UCLA's last 6 games

                            Michigan State

                            Michigan State is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games
                            The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Michigan State's last 13 games

                            Hawaii @ Utah
                            Hawaii

                            Hawaii is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
                            Hawaii is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Utah

                            Utah

                            Utah is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Hawaii
                            Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Hawaii
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