Sunday 11-25-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Sunday, November 25

Orlando split its last six games, is 6-2 vs spread in its last eight; they’re 3-4 on road, 4-3 as AU. Under is 9-5 in their last 14 games. Lakers won seven of their last eight games; they won their last five home games, are 2-5 vs spread as HF. Under is 9-2 in their last 11 games. Home side won last ten Magic-Laker games; Orlando is 1-4 vs spread in last five series games played here. Eight of last ten series games stayed under total.

Suns lost seven of their last nine games; they’re 1-8 on road, 3-6 vs spread as AU. Five of their last six games went over the total. Detroit won five of its last seven games; they’re 5-3 at home, 1-4 as HF- their last three games went over. Pistons won six of their last seven games with Phoenix; over is 3-2 in last five series games. Suns 0-5 vs spread in their last five visits to Detroit.

Heat lost six of its last eight games; they’re 4-4 on road, 2-2 as AU. Miami’s last four games stayed under the total. Raptors won its last four games; they’re 8-2 at home, 6-4 as HF. Four of their last six home games went over. Home side won eight of last ten Miami-Toronto games; Heat covered three last three visits to Canada. Five of last seven series games stayed under the total.

Philly won four of its last five games; they’re 3-7 SU/ATS on road- eight of their last nine games went over the total. Nets lost six of their last eight games; they’re 3-5 at home, 2-6 vs spread. Six of their last nine games went over. 76ers won three of last four games with Brooklyn; they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five games in the Barclays Center. Three of last four series games stayed under the total.

New York won its last two games after a 1-8 skid; they’re 3-8 on road, 5-5 as AU. Five of their last six games went over the total. Grizzlies won five of their last six games; they’re 7-1 at home, 6-0 as HF. Four of their last six games went over. Knicks lost eight of their last ten games with Memphis; they’re 1-4 vs spread in their last five visits to Tennessee (over 3-2).

Hornets are 3-4 in last seven games; they’re 3-6 on road, 1-2 as AF. There of their last four games went over the total. Hawks lost their last ten games; they’re 2-7 at home, 2-6 as HU. Three of their last four home games went over. Charlotte won eight of last nine games with the Hawks; they’re 3-2 vs spread in their last five visits to Atlanta. Three of last four series games went over total.

Utah lost five of its last six games; they’re 2-6 in last eight road games, 5-7 vs spread in all their road tilts. Under is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Kings are 4-6 in their last ten games; they’re 5-3 at home, 6-1-1 vs spread. Sacramento’s last five games went over. Road side won seven of last eight Jazz-Kings games; Utah is 2-3 vs spread in its last five visits to Sacramento. Four of last five series games went over total.

Clippers won six of their last seven games; they’re 4-5 on road, 1-5 as AU. LA’s last seven games went over the total. Trailblazers lost four of their last six games; they’re 7-2 at home, 6-2 as HF. Portland’s last four games went over. Portland won/covered its last four games with the Clippers, who are 3-2 vs spread in their last five visits to Oregon. Four of last five series games stayed under the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Sunday, November 25

Trend Report

Orlando Magic
Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Orlando's last 21 games
Orlando is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Orlando's last 17 games on the road
Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Orlando's last 10 games when playing LA Lakers
Orlando is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
Orlando is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
LA Lakers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Lakers's last 11 games
LA Lakers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Lakers's last 10 games when playing Orlando
LA Lakers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Orlando
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 5 games when playing at home against Orlando


Phoenix Suns
Phoenix is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Phoenix's last 12 games
Phoenix is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Phoenix is 2-17 SU in its last 19 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 7 games on the road
Phoenix is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Detroit
Phoenix is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Detroit
Phoenix is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Phoenix is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit Pistons
Detroit is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games
Detroit is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Phoenix
Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Phoenix
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix
Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Phoenix


Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Philadelphia is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Philadelphia's last 17 games on the road
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Brooklyn
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Brooklyn
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Philadelphia's last 18 games when playing Brooklyn
Philadelphia is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Brooklyn is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Brooklyn is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Brooklyn is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Brooklyn's last 18 games when playing Philadelphia
Brooklyn is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia


New York Knicks
New York is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New York is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York's last 6 games
New York is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York's last 5 games on the road
New York is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Memphis
New York is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 14 of New York's last 21 games when playing Memphis
New York is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Memphis
New York is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 10 of New York's last 13 games when playing on the road against Memphis
Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Memphis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis's last 6 games
Memphis is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing New York
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Memphis's last 21 games when playing New York
Memphis is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against New York
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New York
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Memphis's last 13 games when playing at home against New York


Miami Heat
Miami is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Miami is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
Miami is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games on the road
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Toronto
Miami is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Toronto's last 21 games
Toronto is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing Miami
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Miami


Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Charlotte is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Charlotte's last 6 games on the road
Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Charlotte is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Charlotte's last 14 games when playing Atlanta
Charlotte is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Charlotte is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Charlotte's last 9 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Charlotte
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Atlanta's last 14 games when playing Charlotte
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Charlotte
Atlanta is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 9 games when playing at home against Charlotte


Utah Jazz
Utah is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Utah is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Utah's last 15 games
Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Utah is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 7 games on the road
Utah is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Sacramento
Utah is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing Sacramento
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Utah's last 12 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
Sacramento Kings
Sacramento is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 5 games
Sacramento is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Sacramento is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Sacramento's last 7 games at home
Sacramento is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Utah
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games when playing Utah
Sacramento is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Utah
Sacramento is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Utah
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Sacramento's last 12 games when playing at home against Utah


Los Angeles Clippers
LA Clippers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Clippers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Clippers's last 8 games on the road
LA Clippers is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Portland
LA Clippers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Clippers's last 5 games when playing Portland
LA Clippers is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 7 games when playing on the road against Portland
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Portland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games
Portland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Portland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 5 games at home
Portland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Clippers
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
Portland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Clippers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Long Sheet

Sunday, November 25

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CALGARY (13-9-0-1, 27 pts.) at ARIZONA (9-10-0-2, 20 pts.) - 11/25/2018, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 119-118 ATS (+268.0 Units) in road games after a loss by 2 goals or more in their previous game since 1996.
ARIZONA is 18-44 ATS (+79.4 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 6-3 (+1.7 Units) against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 6-3-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.2 Units)

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NEW JERSEY (9-9-0-3, 21 pts.) at TAMPA BAY (16-6-0-1, 33 pts.) - 11/25/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW JERSEY is 5-22 ATS (+37.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 82-41 ATS (+135.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 44-17 ATS (+19.5 Units) first half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 30-9 ATS (+16.7 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 45-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) after scoring 4 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 393-426 ATS (-90.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
TAMPA BAY is 179-212 ATS (-83.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the first half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 7-5-0 straight up against NEW JERSEY over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.8 Units)

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ANAHEIM (10-9-0-5, 25 pts.) at NASHVILLE (16-6-0-1, 33 pts.) - 11/25/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ANAHEIM is 17-24 ATS (-13.9 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 76-43 ATS (+122.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 16-2 ATS (+12.7 Units) in home games in November games over the last 3 seasons.
NASHVILLE is 272-210 ATS (+37.2 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
ANAHEIM is 56-38 ATS (+99.2 Units) in road games on Sunday games since 1996.
ANAHEIM is 16-4 ATS (+11.5 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons.
ANAHEIM is 444-447 ATS (+916.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NASHVILLE is 8-5 (+1.9 Units) against the spread versus ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
NASHVILLE is 8-5-0 straight up against ANAHEIM over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.5 Units)

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EDMONTON (10-10-0-2, 22 pts.) at LOS ANGELES (7-13-0-1, 15 pts.) - 11/25/2018, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 10-21 ATS (-15.4 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 91-99 ATS (-42.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 163-167 ATS (-20.3 Units) in a home game where where the total is 5.5 since 1996.
LOS ANGELES is 5-11 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games in November games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 14-22 ATS (-12.5 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
EDMONTON is 5-4 (+1.0 Units) against the spread versus LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 5-4-0 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Under=+0.6 Units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Sunday, November 25

Trend Report

Calgary Flames
Calgary is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Calgary's last 5 games on the road
Calgary is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Calgary's last 16 games when playing Arizona
Calgary is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona Coyotes
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games
Arizona is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Arizona is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Arizona's last 16 games when playing Calgary
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing at home against Calgary


New Jersey Devils
New Jersey is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
New Jersey is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games
New Jersey is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
New Jersey is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of New Jersey's last 18 games on the road
New Jersey is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Jersey is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Jersey is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
New Jersey is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Jersey
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Jersey
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing New Jersey
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Jersey
Tampa Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against New Jersey
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing at home against New Jersey


Anaheim Ducks
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Anaheim's last 6 games on the road
Anaheim is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Anaheim is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games
Anaheim is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Anaheim's last 12 games
Anaheim is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Anaheim is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Anaheim is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Nashville
Anaheim is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Nashville
Anaheim is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Nashville
Nashville Predators
Nashville is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Nashville's last 12 games
Nashville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Nashville's last 5 games at home
Nashville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Anaheim
Nashville is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Anaheim
Nashville is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Anaheim


Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games
Edmonton is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
Edmonton is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Edmonton is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Edmonton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Los Angeles
Edmonton is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing Los Angeles
Edmonton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Edmonton is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 5 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Los Angeles Kings
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 6 games at home
Los Angeles is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games
Los Angeles is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 6 games
Los Angeles is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Los Angeles is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
Los Angeles is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing Edmonton
Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Los Angeles is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 5 games when playing at home against Edmonton

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Total Talk - Week 12
Chris David

Week 11 Recap

The back and forth results in the totals market kept rolling along in Week 11 as the ‘over’ produced a 7-6 mark. The Sunday Night Football matchup once again bailed out ‘over’ (44) bettors as the Vikings and Bears combined for 28 points in the fourth quarter in Chicago’s 25-20 win over Minnesota. On the season, the high side holds a slight edge (81-80).

2018 Total Results - Game & Halves
O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 11 7-6 6-7 7-5-1

O/U Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 81-80 83-78 75-81-5

2018 Results - Other
O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Week 11 3-0 2-2 1-3 0-0

O/U AFC-NFC Divisional Indoor Coast to Coast
Year-to-Date 26-18 22-26 17-13 7-2

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 12 as of Saturday morning per BookMaker.eu.

Oakland at Baltimore: 43 ½ to 42
Cleveland at Cincinnati: 48 to 46 ½
Tennessee at Houston: 43 to 41 ½

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 12 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Cleveland at Cincinnati: Under 95%
Arizona at L.A. Chargers: Under 87%
Miami at Indianapolis: Over 84%
Green Bay at Minnesota: Under 73%
San Francisco at Tampa Bay: Under 72%

Divisional Matchups

The ‘under’ went 2-1 in the three divisional matchups on Thanksgiving and it could’ve been a clean sweep if Dallas wide receiver Amari Cooper doesn’t put on a show in the third quarter against Washington. Five more of these games left, two of them under the lights.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: The ‘over’ has cashed in six straight games between the pair, which includes the first meeting this season when Philadelphia captured a 34-13 road win over New York. That total closed 45 ½ and this week’s number is a tad higher (47). The Giants offense (27, 38) has helped cash the ‘over’ in their last two games and their overall defensive numbers (26.3 PPG) are still suspect. Since the aforementioned win over New York in Week 6, the Birds have dropped three of four and the offense (17 PPG) has been very pedestrian. Philadelphia’s defense (19.8 PPG) has been better at home and that production has helped the ‘under’ go 4-1. However, that Philadelphia unit has taken some serious knocks especially in the secondary.

Cleveland at Cincinnati: The Bengals (-2.5) have won seven straight games versus the Browns in this rivalry but the oddsmakers are expecting a tight matchup on Sunday. This will be the first meeting between the pair this season and the total (2-2) has been back and forth the last two years. However, the two games in Cincinnati went ‘over’ while the ‘under’ connected in both games at Cleveland. The Browns are playing with rest (see below) and they’ll be facing a Bengals defense (31.2 PPG) that is ranked 31st in scoring.

New England at N.Y. Jets: This is also the first encounter of the season in this series, which has watched the ‘under’ cash in four straight games. The Jets are going with Josh McCown at QB again and he couldn’t do anything in their 41-10 home loss to the Bills in Week 10. Including that result, New York is averaging 10.8 PPG in its last four games (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS). New England also scored 10 points in Week 10, when it was humbled 34-10 at Tennessee. That’s been a common theme for the Patriots this season as the team is averaging 20.6 PPG away from home and that’s contributed to a 3-2 ‘under’ record.

Green Bay at Minnesota: (See Below)

Tennessee at Houston: (See Below)

Coast to Coast

Looking above in the weekly results table, you’ll see an ‘other’ category listed as Coast to Coast. I always like to keep an eye on the travel factor, and for me that revolves around six clubs and five of them are in the Pacific Time Zone. I also include Arizona, who doesn’t observe daylight saving time. Depending on how the NFL schedule works out, each of the six teams face at least three of these situations and sometimes four.

You often hear pundits say playing the 1:00 p.m. ET (10:00 a.m. ET) game is a ‘bitch’ for these West Coast clubs but that narrative has been hit or miss. I suggest you keep it mind and if it gives confidence to your lean, then use it accordingly. I bring the category up in Week 12 because three teams from the West Coast are visiting the East Coast on Sunday and all of them will be playing the dreaded early afternoon games.

Oakland at Baltimore
San Francisco at Tampa Bay
Seattle at Carolina

For total purposes, the ‘over’ has gone 7-2 in these games this season. Those results include teams from the Eastern Time Zone playing in the Pacific and vice versa. Here’s a quick snap shot of my tally below per team with results.

Arizona (Under-Was)
Oakland (Over-Mia, Over-Cle, Over-Ind)
L.A. Chargers (Over-Buf, Over-Cle)
L.A. Rams (None yet, but three in a row from Week 13 through Week 15)
San Francisco (Over-Det, Over-NYG)
Seattle (Under-Det)

For side bettors, make a note the above West Coast clubs are 3-1 this season when traveling East.

Bye Bye Rust

Teams playing with rest in Week 11 went 3-1 and the ‘over’ went 3-1 in their games as well. On the season, the ‘over’ sits at 17-7 (71%) in games with at least one team playing on rest. The offensive units weren’t as sharp last week (24, 20, 23, 23) but even with those results, clubs with rest are averaging 25.3 PPG this season. We’ve got six teams playing off the ‘bye’ this week and then only two more teams (Chiefs, Rams) will be playing with rest after this go ‘round.

Jacksonville at Buffalo
Cleveland at Cincinnati
San Francisco at Tampa Bay
New England at N.Y. Jets
Miami at Indianapolis

Under the Lights

Week 11 watched the ‘over’ go 3-0 in primetime games and that was the second straight week that all tickets went to the high side. Heading into the weekend games, the ‘over’ sits at 19-16 and that includes the clear-cut ‘under’ ticket this past Thursday between the Falcons and Saints.

Primetime Total Results (O/U): TNF (8-4), SNF (4-7), MNF (7-5)

Green Bay at Minnesota: These teams played to a 29-29 tie in Week 2 and while the ‘over’ (45) looked like the right side, this was a 20-7 game heading into the fourth quarter. Prior to that result, the ‘under’ has gone 6-1 in the previous seven meetings and that includes a run of four straight games played at Minnesota. The Vikings have struggled offensively at home (20.2 PPG) but fortunately the defense (19.8 PPG) has been sound and that’s led to a 4-1 ‘under’ mark. Expecting Green Bay to get going on offense away from home (21.6 PPG) seems like a long shot after what we’ve seen from the team so far this season.

Tennessee at Houston: This is the second lowest total (41 ½) on the board for Week 12 and you can see why when you look at the defensive scoring numbers for both the Titans (18.9 PPG) and Houston (20.5 PPG). In the first meeting between the clubs in Week 2, the Titans built an early 14-0 lead on a couple big plays and held on for a 20-17 home win in a game that was statistically dominated by the Texans. QB Marcus Mariota didn’t play for Tennessee in that game and while he’s banged up again, he’s expected to go Monday. In the last six games played at NRG Stadium in this series, the Texans have gone 6-0 (5-1 ATS) and the offense (36.1 PPG) has put on a show. Your emotional handicapping angle could be in play on Monday as Texans owner Bob McNair passed away on Friday.

Fearless Predictions

After going 2-1 early last Sunday, I thought the 3-1 day was in the bag but the Bears decided to tack on some late points to burn our team total. Even though the deficit ($5) was minimal, the Thanksgiving Day totals ($400) got us back on track and in solid footing ($905) heading into this Sunday.

Best Over: Arizona-L.A. Chargers 44
Best Under: San Francisco-Tampa Bay 54
Best Team Total: Over 20 N.Y. Giants

Three-Team Total Teaser (+7.5, +105)
Over 39 ½ N.Y. Giants-Philadelphia
Over 43 ½ Miami-Indianapolis
Under 55 ½ Green Bay-Minnesota

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gridiron Angles - Week 12
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Jets are 15-0-1 ATS (11.7 ppg) since Nov 19, 1995 at home coming off a home loss where they allowed less than 300 total yards.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Dolphins are 0-11 ATS (-12.9 ppg) since Nov 29, 2015 as a road dog when they allowed at least 24 points last game.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Panthers are 0-9 OU (-8.8 ppg) since Oct 07, 2012 as a favorite coming off a road game where Greg Olsen had at least one touchdown.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Jaguars are 10-0 OU (10.0 ppg) since Sep 14, 2014 off a loss as a dog where they forced at least two turnovers.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Patriots are 0-12-1 OU (-9.4 ppg) since Dec 06, 2009 as a road favorite coming off a loss where they failed to cover.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Chargers are 12-0 ATS (+8.25 ppg) vs a nondivisional opponent when they are off a loss in which they threw at least nine more passes than their season-to-date average.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SNF - Packers at Vikings

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Thanks to an 18-point scoring barrage in the final 15 minutes of last week's SNF game between the Vikings and Bears, my 'over' selection was able to just barely get there. It was a disappointing loss for the Vikings as they not trail the Bears by a substantial margin in the NFC North race, and the loser of this week's game between the Packers and Vikings can likely only aim for a Wild Card berth at this point.

But for the second week in a row we get to see Kirk Cousins and this Minnesota team, and to me, that's always the downside of these SNF games getting flexed in.

So it is what it is for Week 12 as networks don't want to risk low viewership by putting to sub-par teams under the lights, so let's see if we can get another winner on SNF. I'm sure the Packers and Vikings are saying the same thing too after the first meeting between the two this year ended in a tie.

Odds: Minnesota (-3.5); Total set at 47.5

The first meeting between the Vikings and Packers this year back in mid-September, looked a lot like last week's Minnesota/Chicago game in the sense that both sides really opened things up and scored plenty of points in the final 15 minutes. Minnesota outscored Green Bay 22-9 in the 4th quarter to earn the eventual tie, and the slow start that week has turned into a bit of a theme for the Vikings this year.

This time around, the Vikings are hosting a Packers team that's had a little extra rest after playing on Thursday night, but Green Bay is still winless SU away from home. The Packers have had their chances no doubt, but they just can't seem to make that key play late, or close a game down when they need too, and that's a theme that probably started for them way back when they tied the Vikings.

So you've got one team that starts slow, and the other who can't finish. Where should your money be going here?

Well, it's not too hard to make a case for either side to win this game, and from a side perspective the spread is probably exactly where it should be. However, Green Bay will eventually have a game where they put it all together away from home, and Minnesota will have a game where they don't get off to these brutal starts, so it's not the side I'm looking to attack. For the second straight week it's the total. And although I was rather lucky in cashing the 'over' with Minnesota last week, I've got no problem going back to that well again here.

For one, even though it was a slow start for Minnesota a week ago offensively, they still managed to put up their seventh straight week of scoring 20 or more points. Minnesota is 4-3 O/U in those games, but two of the three 'unders' were lucky to get there – vs New Orleans and Philadelphia – and the third came against a Detroit team that really struggles to move the ball.

You know with Aaron Rodgers in town that the Packers attack will have offensive success, especially with a 3-2 O/U run going on the road where both 'unders' came when the total was set at 56 or higher. This week's number is about 10 points lower than that, and neither of those 'unders' for Green Bay finished with fewer than 48 points.

Furthermore, as a team, Green Bay is on a 5-1 O/U run under the bright SNF lights, 5-1 O/U after getting a bit of extra rest coming off a TNF game, and 5-1 O/U in their last six road games against division foes. The more this game turns into a defensive-minded battle, the less chance for success the Packers will figure they'll have, and it's not like Minnesota can be too confident in their defense holding Rodgers down either.

So while the first meeting was rather lucky to cash an 'over' ticket with that 4th quarter scoring barrage, I strongly believe the result stays the same but in a much easier manner this time around. A 27-24 type game is well within reason here – for either side – and it's why my money is going on the high side in prime time again this week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

By: Brandon DuBreuil


JACKSON TO START AGAIN

Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco remained sidelined at practiced on Wednesday and all signs are pointing to rookie Lamar Jackson getting another start against Oakland on Sunday. Jackson showed glimpses of what made him the Heisman Trophy winner in 2016 as he went 13-of-19 for 150 yards through the air while rushing 26 times for 119 yards. He also had five red zone carries but was unable to hit pay dirt.

Jackson gets the coziest of spots on Sunday as the Ravens host the Raiders as a 10.5-point favorite. Oakland is allowing the second-most rushing yards per game in the league at 142.3 and is ranked 25th in rushing DVOA. Last week, the Raiders were torched by David Johnson for 137 yards on 25 carries. Jackson should have no problem picking up chunks on the ground against the hapless Raiders, but we’re going to shy away from his rushing yards total just in case he stops running in the second half when the Ravens presumably have a big lead. Instead, we’re backing him to score a touchdown at any time (or a rushing touchdown) as it seems like an anomaly that last week’s red zone usage didn’t result in a score.


DARNOLD OUT, MCCOWN IN?

Jets quarterback Sam Darnold still hasn’t practiced this week despite telling reporters that his foot “feels great.” The Jets’ season is a write-off and they would be foolish to rush him back if he’s at anything less than 100 percent, especially this week as a nine-point home underdog to the Patriots. Assuming Darnold is out, Josh McCown will start his second game of the season. McCown’s first start was an absolute disaster as he threw for just 135 yards despite throwing the ball 34 times, as the Bills thrashed New York 41-10. This week isn’t looking any more promising for McCown as he takes on the Pats as come off their bye week.

The Jets offense is embarrassing right now and have to be faded until further notice. They haven’t scored more than 10 points in a game since Week 7. In their past four games, they’re scoring a touchdown on just 7.5 percent of their possessions. They’ve also managed just 17 plays from inside their opponent’s 10-yard line on the entire season. Even with an expected negative game script where they should be throwing a lot as they play from behind, we’re staying far away from the Jets’ offense, especially when led by a 39-yard-old backup. Take the Under 18.5 on the Jets’ team total.


PERFECT STORM FOR EDELMAN

In sticking with the Patriots-Jets game on Sunday, New England will have a healthy Julian Edelman as he is practicing in full this week. He hurt his foot in Week 10 but apparently, last week’s bye was enough time to get him back to full speed. Edelman has been a monster of late, drawing target totals of 12, 10, and 10 in his last three games and turning them into receiving lines of 9-104, 6-71, and 9-104. Opposing teams love to throw against the Jets and, when they do, it’s usually to a receiver as 69.2 percent of the total targets against the Jets are to wideouts. The Jets are also terrible at defending slot receivers as they allow 110.7 yards per game to the position, the third-most in the NFL. Everything is lined up for Edelman to have a huge game on Sunday and we’re taking the Over on his receiving yards total.


DID WE LEARN OUR LESSON ON FADING ALLEN?

Chargers receiver Keenan Allen is practicing in full this week, after a finger injury had him on the injury report last week. Allen showed no ill effects against the Broncos, however, as he hauled in nine of 12 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown (and cost us our Under bet) in what was a very tough matchup against cornerback Chris Harris Jr. Allen has been nothing short of great since the Chargers’ bye week, posting receiving lines of 6-124-0, 6-57-1, and 9-89-1 in Weeks 9-11, respectively.

You would think that Allen is in for a big day as the Chargers play against the lowly Cardinals in Week 12, but there are a couple points of concern. The first is that the Cardinals are actually tough against their opponent’s top receiver, ranking sixth in DVOA to the position and allowing just 7.7 passes and 59.8 yards per game to WR1s. The second is that the Chargers might just run the ball all day. The Cardinals have allowed 100-plus rushing yards in nine of 10 games this season and the Chargers could be less inclined to throw the ball late in the game, assuming they have a big lead as a 12.5-point home favorite. While Allen’s statistical trends point to the Over, we’re concerned about Week 12 and we recommend taking the Under on his receiving yards total.


TEXANS THOMAS TO GET MORE TARGETS?

Texans coach Bill O’Brien talked about Demaryius Thomas’ slow start on Wednesday, telling the media, "I have to do a better job of getting him more involved. He’s working hard, he’s a good pro and we need to do a better job of getting him the ball a little more." Thomas saw three quick targets in his Houston debut in Week 9, which he turned into three catches for 61 yards. However, he hasn’t seen a single target since, even though the Texans had their bye in Week 10 to get him up to speed on their offense.

Even more discouraging for Thomas is the return of Keke Coutee. The breakout slot receiver drew a team-high nine targets last week. It’s clear that Deshaun Watson is simply a big fan of Coutee as the rookie out of Texas Tech has absorbed 24 percent of the targets in the five games he has played this season — and that includes the partial game against the Jaguars in which he was forced to leave with a hamstring injury. When Coutee is on the field, he’s a key piece of Houston’s offense and that’s not going to change on Monday night against the Titans. Despite O’Brien’s comments about Thomas, he is not a threat to Coutee’s production and we’re backing the Over on his receptions total for Monday night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

By: Brandon DuBreuil


GREEN OUT AGAIN?

A.J. Green is suddenly trending towards not playing on Sunday after missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Green also said that he’d talk to the media on Friday if he was playing and then he declined to speak. Earlier in the week, we suggested taking the Over on Tyler Boyd’s receptions total under the assumption that Green was suiting up. We have to reconsider this if Green is out, however, as Boyd hasn’t been the same receiver when forced to slide into the WR1 role. Facing double-teams against both the Saints and Ravens over the last two weeks, Boyd posted lines of 3-65-0 and 4-71-0 — decent production but nowhere near some the lines he was posting out of the slot when Green was active. This week, the Bengals face the Browns and Boyd will have to see a lot of stud rookie cornerback Denzel Ward if Green is out. Green’s status for Sunday is the key here: If he’s a go, we’re backing the Over for Boyd’s receptions total; if he’s out, we’re taking the Under.


FUNCHESS NOT AT PRACTICE

Panthers No. 1 receiver Devin Funchess missed his third consecutive practice on Friday with a back injury, putting his status for Sunday’s home tilt against Seattle on the wrong side of questionable. If Funchess can’t go, Carolina’s receiving corps will be thin for Week 12 as Torrey Smith is also likely out with a knee issue that has kept him out since Week 7.

With injuries come opportunity and D.J. Moore will look to take advantage as he will slide into the starting lineup if Funchess can’t go. Moore is already getting more playing time of late, seeing at least 80 percent of the snaps over the last four weeks which culminated in a breakout performance last week where he hauled in 7-of-8 targets for 157 yards and a touchdown against Detroit. Although the Seahawks are an overall solid defense which ranks ninth in passing DVOA, they struggle the most against an opponent’s top receiver as they rank 20th against the position and are allowing 9.8 passes per game for 83.1 yards. If Funchess can’t go, Moore will slide into the WR1 role and we like his chances of having a big day. We’re taking the Over on his receiving yards total.


BALDWIN SIDELINED

Carolina might not be the only team with injury issues at receiver on Sunday as Doug Baldwin remained on the sideline at practice on Thursday and appears to be on the wrong side of questionable. If Baldwin can’t go, David Moore would likely slide into a starting role alongside Tyler Lockett. Moore has been inconsistent in both his usage and production of late, but what’s most encouraging is that Russell Wilson targeted him a season-high eight times last week — which Moore turned into four catches for 57 yards — despite that fact that he played just 57 percent of the snaps, his lowest total since Week 6.

The Seahawks run the ball more often than any team in the NFL, which is always a concern when backing their receivers, but the Panthers are much tougher against the run than they are against the pass, ranking 12th in rushing DVOA but 25th in passing DVOA. The Panthers routinely get burned out of the slot and have allowed stat lines of 6-52-0, 3-90-1, 8-82-2, and 5-54 over the last four games to the position. Although Moore is running just 3.9 percent of his snaps from the slot, Baldwin is there 65.1 percent of the time. If Baldwin can’t go, Moore should see a lot more routes from the slot and he should burn the Panthers just like every other slot receiver does. Monitor Baldwin’s status and take the Over on Moore’s receptions total if he’s out.


COLLINS DNP

Ravens running back Alex Collins was added to the injury report on Thursday as he sat out practice with a foot issue. This appears to be a new injury as Collins gets the dreaded mid-week addition tag, which is never a good sign for a player’s Sunday availability. Equally concerning for Collins is the emergence of Gus Edwards, who exploded for 117 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries last week while Collins plodded for just 18 yards seven carries.

The Ravens appear to be headed towards a committee at running back but Collins’ injury could clear things up for Sunday in what is a dream matchup as a 10.5-point home favorite against a Raiders defense that ranks 25th in rushing DVOA and is allowing the second-most rushing yards per game in the league at 142.3. If Collins can’t go, Edwards will be in line for a huge game. Follow Covers’ Twitter feed for up-to-the-minute injury news and grab the Over on Edwards’ rushing yards total if Collins gets ruled out.


BREIDA FINALLY HEALTHY

San Francisco running back Matt Breida looks to finally be at full health and is off the injury report ahead of Week 12’s contest at Tampa Bay. The Niners were on bye last week, but prior to that Breida looked more like the breakout player we saw during the first few weeks of the year before injuries slowed him down as he posted 101 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries against the Giants while adding three receptions for 31 yards on four targets.

If you watch Breida play, he seems to excel when he gets to the outside and the stats back that up as he’s averaging 6.3 yards per attempt and 24.4 yards per game on carries outside the tackles. It just so happens that Tampa Bay is the worst in the league at defending running backs once they get outside the tackles, allowing six yards per carry and 54.6 yards per game. There is the slight worry that Tampa Bay’s high-scoring offense could get the Bucs a big lead on Sunday, but Breida was involved in the passing game last week and should be again in Week 12 if that happens. We’re taking the Over on his combined rushing and receiving yards total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BRADY SICK, HURT

Tom Brady has been downgraded on New England’s injury report with an illness that added on to his existing knee issue. He didn’t practice on Friday after being limited because of his knee earlier in the week. There aren’t any reports saying he won’t start on Sunday however, and we expect him out there as the Pats visit the Jets, especially seeing as New England is coming off their bye.

Brady is coming off one of his worst performances in recent memory where he threw for just 254 yards on 21-of-41 passing in the 34-10 road loss at Tennessee prior to the bye week. Brady gets Rob Gronkowski back and the Pats should be extremely motivated to get back in the win column, especially considering the crowded leaderboard atop the AFC standings. Brady hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard of late but is still averaging 297 passing yards per game since Week 7. The Jets are middle-of-the-pack against the pass, ranking 14th in DVOA, but they’ve also had an extremely favorable schedule where they’ve only faced two upper-tier quarterbacks all season in Andrew Luck and Kirk Cousins. The rest of the QBs they’ve faced this season looks like this, starting from Week 1: Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill, Tyrod Taylor/Baker Mayfield, Blake Bortles, Case Keenum, Mitch Trubisky, Brock Osweiler, and Matt Barkley. With a list of opposing QBs like that, the Jets should be a Top 5 defense in the league. We don’t expect Brady’s issues to be a factor on Sunday and we also think he obliterates the Jets. Take the Over 278.5 on his passing yards total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GORDON MIGHT SIT?

The Chargers might be without Melvin Gordon on Sunday as their star running back is a game-time decision with knee and hamstring injuries. He has been limited at practice over the last two days and the Chargers could choose to rest him as they’re likely confident they can beat the Cardinals on Sunday with or without Gordon.

It would be a huge blow for Gordon backers if he can’t go as he has a cupcake matchup as a 13-point home favorite against Arizona. If he doesn’t suit up, Austin Ekeler will fill in and will be licking his chops against a defense that allows 170.5 total yards per game to running backs. Ekeler had one start earlier in the season against Tennessee in London and ran for 42 yards on 12 carries while adding 26 yards on five catches. He would be in a much better spot this week than he was back in Week 7, however, and he’d likely get 15-18 carries in what should be an easy L.A. win. Should Gordon sit, we’ll be looking to take the Over on Ekeler’s combined rushing and receiving total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THIELEN READY TO ROLL

Receiver Adam Thielen wasn’t listed on Minnesota’s injury report ahead of its Sunday night tilt against Green Bay. He took fewer reps than usual throughout the week at practice but was always expected to play in Week 12. Thielen had one of his best games of the season against Green Bay back in Week 2 as he grabbed 12 passes for 131 yards and a touchdown — and that was back when the Packers were healthy. Green Bay is still hurting on defense with lineman Mike Daniels out and four members of the secondary questionable or doubtful.

Thielen has slowed down a bit of late but that was bound to happen after his scorching start — and it has also brought his prop totals down a bit. He hasn’t topped 100 yards in his last two games but still posted a very respectable seven catches for 66 yards last week against Chicago. Overall, the Packers are an average matchup against the pass with a passing DVOA rank of 15. But Minnesota is at home in its dome against a banged-up Packers defense. We’re taking the Over 7.5 on his receptions total for Sunday Night Football.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NINERS GET FOSTER BACK

San Francisco linebacker Reuben Foster is questionable for Sunday but looks on track to play as the 49ers travels to Tampa Bay. Foster, a second-round pick in 2017, has missed the last two games but had the bye last week to help him get over the hamstring injury that has been bothering him. His return would be a definite upgrade to a Niners rush defense that has been better than average on the season and it’s all we need to fade Peyton Barber.

Barber looked great last week in rushing for 106 yards on 18 carries but that was against a Giants defense that is bleeding against the run of late, allowing 101 yards to Matt Breida in Week 10 and 149 yards to Adrian Peterson in Week 8 (they had their bye in Week 9). San Francisco, on the other hand, has only allowed one running back to crack 70 rushing yards on the season and that was the far superior Melvin Gordon. Barber has five games on the season where he hasn’t been able to surpass 40 rushing yards in a game and we’re expecting a similar performance on Sunday as the Bucs will do most of their damage through the air. Take the Under 56.5 on Barber’s rushing yards total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHUBB KEEPS CHUGGING

Cleveland running back Nick Chubb is quietly developing into a superstar in the NFL. Since Carlos Hyde was sent packing prior to Week 7, Chubb has run for 80, 65, 85, and then 176 in Cleveland’s last game in Week 10 prior to its bye last week. He’s running for an absurd 6.2 yards per carry — second to Aaron Jones this season — on 94 carries. It’s also very encouraging that two of the biggest games of his young career have come in the last two weeks under new offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens. He also has a touchdown in each of those two weeks and three in his four games as the starter.

The Bengals, meanwhile, have been crushed by running backs of late. In their last five games, they are allowing 188 total yards per game and have given up eight rushing touchdowns (and three receiving touchdowns) to running backs. On the season, the Bengals are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per attempt up the middle at 4.8. This looks to be a tight divisional battle with the Bengals favored at -2.5, which should translate to a lot of rushing attempts once again for Chubb. We’re expecting a big game from the rookie and we’re backing the Over 85.5 rushing yards and for him to score a touchdown at any time.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

By: Brandon DuBreuil



LAFELL HEADS TO IR

The Raiders placed receiver Brandon LaFell on injured reserve after Oakland’s latest No. 1 receiver suffered a torn Achilles tendon against Arizona on Sunday. Martavis Bryant will also be out in Week 12, although coach Jon Gruden said on Monday that Jordy Nelson “has a chance” to return this week as the Raiders travel to Baltimore. Seth Roberts will continue to start at receiver and Marcell Ateman will likely see his fair share of snaps in Week 12 as he posted four catches for 50 yards in LaFell’s absence on Sunday.

Oakland’s receiver situation is an absolute mess and, predictably, it has negatively affected Derek Carr’s performance. Even in a win at Arizona on Sunday, Carr threw for just 192 yards on 19-of-31 passing, though we enjoyed the performance as we got a winner with the Under on his passing yards total. Carr has now thrown for under 200 yards in three of his last five games and faces one of his toughest tests of the season in Week 12 as the Raiders travel east for an early start against a Ravens defense that ranks fifth in DVOA and most recently held Andy Dalton to 211 yards on 36 attempts. Fade Carr until further notice and take the Under on his passing yards total for Week 12.


BUCS GO BACK TO WINSTON

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected to turn back to Jameis Winston as the starting quarterback after the Week 6-8 starter came on in relief of a struggling Ryan Fitzpatrick on Sunday and threw for 199 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception on 12-of-16 passing. Winston’s efforts led a spirited Bucs comeback that fell just short, but it was good enough to earn him the start — at least for this week. Ultimately, it seems that the Bucs are just happy to ride the hot hand for the remainder of the season.

Winston was inconsistent in his three-game stint as the starter earlier this season, putting in great, average, and terrible performances (in that order). He looked solid on Sunday however, and is in a great spot this week as the Bucs host the 49ers as a 3.5-point favorite and with a game total of 55. The Bucs feature the league’s top passing offense at 361 passing yards per game and you can be sure that Winston will be airing it out all afternoon against a Niners defense that is below average in defending the pass at 21st in passing DVOA. We’re taking the Over on Winston’s passing yards total.


HOWARD PLACED ON IR

Tampa Bay got some devastating news on Tuesday when O.J. Howard was placed on injured reserve with foot and ankle injuries that he suffered on the same play against the Giants last week. He’ll be replaced in the starting lineup by Cameron Brate. It’s a huge loss for the Bucs as Howard was having a really nice season, especially of late as he was averaging 3.8 catches for 57.2 yards per game over his last six.

Brate has been mostly irrelevant this season but has a nice chance to deliver a big performance on Sunday as the Buccaneers take on the 49ers. That matchup has an Over/Under currently set at 54.5, which is the highest total for Sunday’s slate. The Niners aren’t a great matchup for tight ends as they rank 22nd in DVOA against the position and are allowing 6.9 passes per game to the position for 49.3 yards. Still, Tampa Bay is the league’s No. 1 passing offense which immediately gives him value as the team’s top receiving threat from the position. We recommend taking the Over 3.5 on his receptions total for Sunday.


BILLS WELCOME ALLEN BACK

Buffalo coach Sean McDermott announced that quarterback Josh Allen will return on Sunday as the Bills host the Jaguars. The rookie has been out since suffering an elbow injury in Week 6 and since then Buffalo has used Derek Anderson, Nathan Peterman, and Matt Barkley under center. Allen’s return should finally provide the Bills with some consistency at quarterback for the remainder of the season.

There are a couple of things that we can take away from Allen’s starts from Weeks 1-6. First, he’s not ready to throw the ball at the NFL level yet. He’s averaging just 138.7 passing yards per game and had three games, including his last two, where he failed to reach the 100-yard mark. Second, he loves to run the ball, especially in the red zone where he had 11 rushing attempts for 59 yards that resulted in three touchdowns through his first five starts. Allen has a very tough matchup in his first game back against Jacksonville’s defense that ranks sixth in DVOA. We recommend the Under on Allen’s passing yards total but will also be sprinkling a little money on him to score a touchdown at any time in what should pay out at around +700.


JAGS STICKING WITH BORTLES

Despite his struggles, Jacksonville won’t bench Blake Bortles. At least not yet. Coach Doug Marrone confirmed that Bortles will start in Week 12 as the Jaguars head to Buffalo on Sunday. It appears, however, that Marrone is losing confidence in his starting quarterback as Bortles only attempted 18 passes in Sunday’s loss to Pittsburgh. Yes, the Jags played with the lead for most of the game but there were multiple opportunities late in the game where a first down could have sealed a win and, instead of letting Bortles throw for it, the Jaguars were content to run the ball into the Steelers’ defensive wall.

Marrone seems to have figured out that his best chance of winning is by running the ball over and over again with Leonard Fournette, Carlos Hyde, and T.J. Yeldon and he did just that on Sunday with 43 rushing attempts — 28 for Fournette. On Sunday, the Jags head to Buffalo to take on a defense that ranks first against the pass in DVOA but 11th against the rush. To put that into perspective, Fournette ran for 95 yards against a Steelers unit that is ranked 10th against the rush. Volume alone makes Fournette a candidate to have a big game on Sunday at Buffalo as he should see upwards of 27-30 carries once again and we’re taking the Over on his rushing yards total.


TANNEHILL SET TO RETURN

Dolphins coach Adam Gase announced on Tuesday that Ryan Tannehill will return as the starting quarterback for their Week 12 game at Indianapolis. Tannehill will be making his first start since Week 5 and will be an upgrade over Brock Osweiler, albeit a slight one. He wasn’t very good earlier in the season before his injury, averaging just 194.4 passing yards per game with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 8:5. Since he last played, the Dolphins have lost receivers Albert Wilson and Jakeem Grant, while DeVante Parker is questionable after being a non-contact participant in practice on Tuesday.

Alhough we’re never thrilled with backing someone like Tannehill, we have to consider the game script for this weekend. The Dolphins have been terrible of late and have only managed to be competitive against the Jets over their last four games. The Colts are a nine-point home favorite and there’s a good chance that they get a big lead early, just like they did against the Titans last week and the Jaguars two weeks ago. When that happens, Tannehill will be forced to air it out, much like Blake Bortles did two weeks ago when he threw for 320 yards against Indy. The Colts are not great against the pass with a defense that is ranked 23rd in passing DVOA. We expect the Colts to get up big and for Tannehill to rack up the passing yards as the Dolphins attempt to make a comeback. Take the Over for his passing yards total.


GRAHAM TO TOUGH IT OUT

Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy told the media on Monday that tight end Jimmy Graham will “try to play” through the broken thumb he suffered last Thursday in Seattle. There is no guarantee that he will suit up, as the Packers’ medical staff will experiment with different splints and protections that will allow him to catch the ball. It doesn’t sound like an ideal situation but Green Bay is facing a must-win on Sunday night as it visits Minnesota, so Graham will do what he can this week to be on the field.

Should Graham suit up for Sunday Night Football, we’ll be looking to fade him. The injury situation alone would be grounds to stay away as catching a ball with a broken finger and some sort of splint/cast situation will be difficult enough. But there’s also the fact that the Packers face a tough matchup against a Vikings defense that allowed Bears tight end Trey Burton just one catch for nine yards last week. Graham’s usage has also been down as of late. He had just one catch last week as he was forced to leave the game with the injury, but he also had just one catch in two of his last three games before that. Rodgers has plenty of other options to throw to and we doubt he’ll be relying too much on a tight end with a broken finger. We’re taking the Under on Graham’s receptions total.