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Larry Ness' Thursday 10* NFL Week 12 Las Vegas Insider (61% s/2012!)
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Detroit Lions (12:30 EST).
The Bears on the road on a short week to take on the Lions. Chicago enter off a satisfying 25-20 home win over Minnesota, while the Lions prevailed 20-19 over the Panthers on Sunday. Note that this is an “in season revenge game” for Detroit after falling 34-22 in the first meeting in Chicago back on November 11th. The Bears have been great, but I think this sets up as a natural “letdown” spot. After four straight victories and then hitting the road for a nationally televised contest on a “short” week, would anyone at all fault Chicago if it did have a “letdown” here? The Lions come in with momentum and nothing to lose. Last week Detroit controlled the clock 31:40 to 28:20. Note that the Lions are 3-2 ATS at home this year. Additionally note that Detroit is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 after a four games or more SU unbeaten streak. While the outright upset isn’t out of the question obviously, I’ll recommend grabbing the points.
Indian Cowboy
4-Unit Play. #703. Take Under 125.5 Dayton vs. Virginia (Thursday @ 4pm est)
Who is going to score here? You have two of the most defensive minded teams in the country facing here and both are undefeated at that. This is a Dayton team that is finally "getting it" with Anthony Grant the former Alabama coach at the helm (and former VCU coach as well). Virginia is the 2nd best defense in the country and Anthony Grant's team just held Butler to 64 points, is top 65 in turnover margin and this team is as good as it gets when it comes to playing defense and not turning over the ball. Look for a very low scoring game here as this game likely goes under the posted total and there is a chance this game does not break 110 points this afternoon.
3-Unit Play. Take #702 Wisconsin (-4.5) over Oklahoma (1:30 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 22) Oklahoma is a solid little team. But they can get a little helter skelter and that won't play well against the poise and composure of the Badgers. I don't think that Wisconsin will get blanked from the 3-point line again in this game and I don't think the Sooners will defend as aggressively as Stanford did yesterday.
2-Unit Play. Take #704 Virginia (-13) over Dayton (4 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 22) Dayton played out of its mind yesterday. They were shooting over 54 percent for the game and for most of the game were shooting over 60 percent. They aren't going to do that against Virginia. The Cavaliers are pretty obviously the best team in this field and I think they are going to completely shut down a Dayton team that had one good game in them and used that up yesterday.
2-Unit Play. Take #714 LSU (-7) over Charleston (7 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 22) Charleston couldn't hang with Oklahoma State in Stillwater on Sunday, losing by 12, and I actually think that LSU is pretty comparable to the Cowboys. LSU already has three wins over Top 120 competition and they have the best player on the floor in Tremont Waters. Charleston is nothing to sneeze at. They are a good team and a potential NCAA Tournament team. But they haven't been playing with a lot of urgency early in the season and they are really young on the bench. I think that will cost them here.
5-Unit Play. Take #722 North Carolina (-7) over Texas (7:30 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 22) I think Texas stinks. Their guard play is shaky as hell and their big men are a mess. This just isn't a very good team and Shaka Smart is not a very good coach. I think they will get run here by a much more talented North Carolina team. UNC has the two best players on the court with Luke Maye and Cameron Johnson and I don't think that the Longhorns will have an answer.
1-Unit Play. Take #723 Michigan State (-6.5) over UCLA (10 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 22) Michigan State has already played in a big game against top competition when they took on Kansas. UCLA hasn't played anyone and they are incredibly young. I'll go with youth over experience here.
1-Unit Play. Take #726 Miami (-13.5) over LaSalle (2:30 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 22) LaSalle sucks pretty bad. They are 0-4 on the season and they have bad losses and blowouts already on their resume. This Miami team is undervalued and underrated right now. They have size and I really like their backcourt of Chris Lykes and Dejan Vasiljevic. Depth is an issue that could creep up on them in this tournament. But I think that they can get off to a solid start against an overmatched opponent.
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #707 Butler (-6.5) over Middle Tennessee State (9:30 p.m.) AND Take #732 Utah (-5) over Hawaii (11:30 p.m.) 2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #722 North Carolina (-2) over Texas (7:30 p.m.) AND Take #732 Utah (-5) over Hawaii (11:30 p.m.) 1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #714 LSU (-2) over Charleston (7 p.m.) AND Take #704 Virginia (-8) over Dayton (4 p.m.) 1-Unit Play. PARLAY: Take #704 Virginia (-1100), #707 Butler (-900), #716 Florida State (-1700), #722 North Carolina (-365), #726 Miami (-1100) and #732 Utah (-500). This is a moneyline parlay that pays out +115. The only teams I am the least bit worried about losing are Butler and Utah. But that's why it's gambling so let's have a little holiday fun.
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