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Lee Sterling Las Vegas Review picks
ParamountSports.com
Last week: 3-1
Season: 30-27-2
Miami -5
South Carolina +26
Florida International +3
North Carolina State -7
Florida State +7
Arkansas State -11
Nov. 24 Saturday 3* #170 Wisconsin -10.5 over Minnesota 2:30 PM CT (College GOY) Minnesota has lost 14 meetings in a row with Wisconsin though there have been some recent close calls. Only once in the past eight meetings has the spread been below 17 however and this will be the smallest spread in Madison since 2006. After going 12-0 in the regular season last year the Badgers haven’t lived up to expectations with an injury depleted defense and recently playing without quarterback Alex Hornibrook. Sophomore Jack Coan has shown improvement now with four games under his belt and he has posted a higher completion rate and a lower interception rate, though the offense has been more conservative. Coan delivered in the air in last week’s comeback win at Purdue and the Badgers still possess an outstanding offensive line and the nation’s leading rusher in Jonathan Taylor, who could eclipse 2,000 yards Saturday. Wisconsin has won all of its Big Ten home games by 14 or more points and has allowed 10 fewer points per game compared with Minnesota in conference play. P.J. Fleck has not led an instant turnaround in Minnesota with the Gophers needing an upset this week to avoid a second straight 5-7 campaign. Both Big Ten wins for Minnesota came at home while on the road the Big Ten contests have resulted in losses by 29, 16, 25, and 24. Last week Minnesota had a golden opportunity to reach bowl eligibility hosting Northwestern with the Wildcats already clinching the division title but the Gophers came up well short. Tanner Morgan has provided better results since taking over at quarterback but he still has six interceptions in 123 pass attempts and hasn't reached 60 percent completions in any of his last three games. Defense will be the bigger challenge for Minnesota having allowed more than 36 points per game in conference play. Minnesota is allowing 5.2 yards per rush on the season for 116th nationally, only ahead of Rutgers and Illinois among Big Ten teams in rush defense. Wisconsin posted over 1,000 yards of offense in blowout wins in those two matchups while rushing for well over 300 yards in lopsided win vs. those two teams. Minnesota is a team in the need-to-win situation for a bowl bid but that was the scenario last week for the Gophers at home and this is a matchup that should bring out the best Badgers effort for the final home game. Nov. 24 Saturday 2* #208 Iowa State -13 over Kansas State 6:00 PM CT Kansas State played a great game last week in what certainly could be Bill Snyder’s final game coaching in Manhattan. The Wildcats will seek to extend its season and qualify for a bowl game this week sitting at 5-6 heading to Ames while winning 10 straight meetings in this series. The past four meetings have all been decided by five or fewer points and Iowa State has to be incredibly motivated for this matchup after a 20-19 defeat in Manhattan last season. Kansas State needed to win to become bowl-eligible in that game and the WIldcats got plenty of help with a massive edge in penalties offsetting a 379-264 yardage edge for the Cyclones. A critical personal foul penalty on a coach aided the late score for Kansas State who scored as time expired to win by one after trailing 19-7 with seven minutes to go in the game. Four different flags were picked up in the game, all favoring Kansas State for some very bizarre officiating decisions to say the least. That was also a tough spot on the schedule for Iowa State who faced a second straight road game after getting win #6 the previous week in Baylor to punch a bowl ticket. Kansas State played with same emotions in that home finale that they did last week for a home finale with Snyder’s status in the same situation this year, beating Texas Tech 21-6 with the help of turnovers and a great defensive performance against a back-up quarterback. This year Kansas State is 0-4 in road games with losses by 70 combined points. The Wildcats have been held to 21 or fewer points in six of eight conference games as by far the lowest scoring team in the conference. Iowa State’s Big XII title bid came up short last week but this Big XII finale will be very meaningful for a team that is riding a 5-1 run with the offense scoring nearly 31 points per game since Brock Purdy took over at quarterback. Purdy has just three interceptions in 144 attempts while posting more than 10.0 yards per attempt. Top ruhser David Montgomery will also be back after missing most of this game last season while being suspended for the first half of last week’s game with Texas as the Cyclones fell behind. Iowa State ranks 11th nationally allowing just 3.2 yards per rush while Kansas State has one of the nation’s least effective passing offenses posting only 6.7 yards per attempt while averaging only 160 yards per game in the air. Sentimental support for Kansas State has pushed this spread below 14 but teams in this type of ‘need-to-win’ situation don’t have any historical data supporting them and in fact do quite poorly if they are facing a quality team off a loss as the Cyclones are.
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