Service Plays Thursday 11/29/18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rockdeman Sports (CBB) - Samford +8.5

[swaminator]

this is from Cpaws brilliant work on the newsletters - GL

Powers Picks NFL
4* (0-0)
3* (4-6) PITTSBURGH
2* (17-4-1) DALLAS - ATLANTA
says Saints have covered 9 in a row,
no NFL team has covered 10 in a row S1992
1* (0-0)

[FATMANWINS]

allan desrosiers
ncaab
8 belmont

[FATMANWINS]

allan desrosiers
nfl
7 over

[dawggy]

ARTHUR RALPH

THURS Super Pick Saints -7

Gold KEY Sacremento +3 NBA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Miller locks

7:00 pm est ncaab
alabama vs. Central florida

pick: Central florida -5 (-108)

risk: 11 units

8:20 pm est nfl
new orleans saints vs. Dallas cowboys

pick: New orleans saints -7 (-115)

risk: 11 units

9:00 pm est ncaab
georgia southern vs. Arizona

pick: Arizona -9 (-105)

risk: 11 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

4For4

301 New Orleans Saints at 302 Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys +7
O/U: 51.5
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Line Movement
The Saints opened as 7-point favorites and the line continues to bounce back and forth between 7 and 7.5 depending on which sportsbook you view. As for the total, it opened at 53.5 but was bet down two full points to 51.5.

Public Betting
The Saints are attracting most of the betting tickets (71 percent) and money (61 percent). As of Thursday morning, most of the betting tickets (79 percent) and money (64 percent) is also on the over.

Trends
The underdog is 9-2 against the spread in the last 11 meetings between these two teams, while the home team has covered in four of the last five meetings. That said, the Saints are 8-3 at the betting window in their last 11 games against the Cowboys while the over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Dallas.

Prediction
There is a compelling argument to be made for taking the points tonight. The Saints are playing their third game in 12 days, their ATS streak must end at some point (if not their winning streak) and every week oddsmakers continue to inflate New Orleans’ number.

That said, bet against the Saints at your own risk.

Drew Brees is completing 76.4 percent of his passes for 3,135 yards, 29 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He has two or more touchdown passes in 12 of his last 18 games and the Saints ground game has averaged 133.1 yards per contest this year. This is a juggernaut.

The real progress has been made defensively, however. The Saints are allowing 23.3 points per game and are playing their best defense of the season. Their front four did whatever it wanted to the Falcons’ offensive line last week and completely shut down Atlanta’s running game. Granted, New Orleans’ run defense numbers are skewed because opponents keep falling behind and are thus forced to ditch their running game. Still, the Saints own the No. 1 run defense in the league and if Dallas can’t run the ball behind Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys have no shot tonight.

Staying with that theme, if you like Dallas tonight than you believe the ‘Boys will run the ball effectively, continue to play excellent defense as they have over the past month and effectively play keep-away from Brees and the Saints. It’s not a ludicrous thought and if you’re right, Dallas may win the game outright.

However, if you’re like me, then you believe the Saints will halt Elliott behind a banged-up Dallas offensive line (one that could be without left tackle Tyron Smith again) and force Dak Prescott to keep pace with Brees. If that happens, then we all know how this one ends.

New Orleans is averaging 41 points per game over its last five contests and held six of its last eight opponents to fewer than 20 points. There’s a reason why they’re the current Super Bowl favorite and while the ‘Boys are also hot, it wasn’t that long ago when everyone (including Troy Aikman) was debating whether or not Dallas needed to blow things up. In a matchup of contrasting offensive styles, I’m fading the team that has been one-dimensional at times this season.

Pick: Saints -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INT picks
Dallas cowboys + 7 1/2
CBB Alabama -6 1/2
CBB Arizona -10
CBB UCSB -7 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

2-Unit Play. Take #508 Central Florida (-5.5) over Alabama (7 p.m., Thursday, Nov. 29)
The public loves Alabama here but I think that Central Florida is the much stronger team. Alabama simply isn't very good. They went just 19-15 during the regular season last year and should not have made the NCAA Tournament. They did, but they didn't deserve it. They also lost two of their best players from last year, Collin Sexton and Braxton Key. The best part is that Central Florida actually went on the road and beat Alabama last year - and they were without two of their best players. UCF played the Crimson Tide without B.J. Taylor or Aubrey Dawkins, their two leading scorers this year. This Central Florida team is legit and they could end up winning the AAC. They have that one weird loss to Florida Atlantic. But other than that UCF is 5-0 ATS and they have exceeded their low expectations. I think UCF is going to be excited for a game against an SEC school (especially one with which they have some major football beef right now) and I think that the Golden Knights are going to come to play. They are the better team, motivated, playing at home, against a team that they beat on the road with a worse team last year, and the public is on the soft side. All of that makes this a play and I think I may end up wishing this one was rated higher.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tom Stryker

DOUBLE 12-1 ATS NFL THURSDAY NIGHT NFC BEST BET

Cowboys

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike Point Sports
6* Georgia southern +9.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stats Analytics Sports (NFL 40-33 ytd +8.72 units)

1* Cowboys/Saints Over 51.5

NBA (33-30 ytd +5.31 units)
2* Lakers -4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nfac
900 Under 52 dal-no

750 Under 78 okl-tx

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wolf from PGF
ATL -1 3%
Bama O63 2%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

11th Hour NFL Game of the Year: Money Line: 302 DAL+148 1st Q. DAL+185 1st H. DAL+275g. DAL U 26 1st H. DAL U 52.5g.