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Hot & Not Report
Week of November 26th
Who's Hot
Look to the best teams in the East for 'Overs' – Toronto, Milwaukee, Philly a combined 43-19 O/U
For years in the NBA there has been the general notion that if you want to see high-scoring games it's better to watch the majority of the teams out West. Golden State has led the charge in that regard the past half-decade given their ability to score, but teams in the East have always been saddled with the idea that defensive basketball comes first there. Whether that's been a growing “stereotype” since the days of Larry Bird's physical Boston Celtics teams vs. Magic's “Showtime” L.A Lakers, I don't really know, but in 2018-19, that idea has been completely flipped on it's head.
The top three teams in the East right now (Toronto, Milwaukee, Philadelphia) are the only three teams in the entire NBA with 14 or more 'overs' cashed so far. All three of these teams understand that they've got a distinct talent advantage on the floor on most nights, and like the Warriors of year's past, are simply running and gunning to outscore their foes, assuming they won't be able to keep up. Given that those three teams are the only three in the East with more than 11 SU wins to enter the week, that strategy appears to be working quite well.
What is still surprising though is the idea that the totals for Raptors, Sixers, or Bucks games still haven't really caught up to them. Even in today's NBA when a total of 215 is like the new baseline (when it was 204 or so just a few years ago), these three leaders in the East continue to surpass their numbers at a near 70% clip. When two of those three teams have squared off against one another, the 'over' is a perfect 3-0 so far, and that's with all three of those totals closing at least in the low 220's.
Now chances are the numbers for these totals will start to catch up to these three teams soon and more 'unders' will start to hit, and it begins for Milwaukee on Monday night. Their road game in Charlotte currently has a total of 234, but with about 70% of the action already on the high side, it appears many are going to ride with this trend as long as they can.
Who's Not
The Boston Celtics – League Worst 7-13 ATS
While the dysfunction out in Golden State dominates the media airwaves, it's the struggles of the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference that probably aren't getting the publicity that they should. Big things were expected from the Celtics this year after losing in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last spring, knowing that stars like Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward would be back and healthy for this campaign. But this Celtics squad is just a .500 team through 20 games, and no team in the entire league as a worse ATS record than Boston at 35%.
Boston takes the court on Monday as they visit New Orleans, and the fact that this point spread has flipped from opening at Boston -1 to New Orleans -2 currently probably tells you all you need to know about how the betting market currently views this Celtics team. Some of that move might be injury related on both sides, but bettors are more likely to have been jilted by backing the Celtics at least once this year, sentiment is finally starting to significantly go against this Boston team. Twenty games may not be quite enough to really establish the old “they are who we thought they are” mantra about this Celtics unit, but it's still a 1/4 of the way through the year and Boston – a team one win away from the Finals last year without their two superstars – is still sitting at .500. There's got to come a point when the markets start to view this Celtics team as one that their current record shows, and maybe we've already reached that point.
However, as I touched on earlier with the thought that some 'unders' are coming for Raptors/Bucks/Sixers games, it may not be long until we see this Celtics team start cashing ticket after ticket. There is no question that November has not been kind to the Celtics (3-9 ATS), but two of those three ATS victories did come against current division leaders in the East (Toronto, Milwaukee) and that suggests that this Celtics team simply has a tough time “getting up” for many of these early season games to win by a significant margin.
That's no different than what we've seen from teams like Cleveland or Golden State in recent years, when playoff success tends to further the mindset that it's all about being at your best from about the All-Star break and beyond. The NBA season is a long and grinding one, and with the Celtics still showing they can beat the best of the best within their conference, I'd be willing to bet that this team will be fine long-term.
It may not happen this week or next, but Boston will start to turn their SU and ATS record around when a little more urgency kicks in. When that becomes the case remains to be seen, but when betting markets are so heavily influenced by recent results, the spreads for Boston in the foreseeable future could end up presenting quite a bit of value for “Bet ON” scenarios.
Week of November 26th
Who's Hot
Look to the best teams in the East for 'Overs' – Toronto, Milwaukee, Philly a combined 43-19 O/U
For years in the NBA there has been the general notion that if you want to see high-scoring games it's better to watch the majority of the teams out West. Golden State has led the charge in that regard the past half-decade given their ability to score, but teams in the East have always been saddled with the idea that defensive basketball comes first there. Whether that's been a growing “stereotype” since the days of Larry Bird's physical Boston Celtics teams vs. Magic's “Showtime” L.A Lakers, I don't really know, but in 2018-19, that idea has been completely flipped on it's head.
The top three teams in the East right now (Toronto, Milwaukee, Philadelphia) are the only three teams in the entire NBA with 14 or more 'overs' cashed so far. All three of these teams understand that they've got a distinct talent advantage on the floor on most nights, and like the Warriors of year's past, are simply running and gunning to outscore their foes, assuming they won't be able to keep up. Given that those three teams are the only three in the East with more than 11 SU wins to enter the week, that strategy appears to be working quite well.
What is still surprising though is the idea that the totals for Raptors, Sixers, or Bucks games still haven't really caught up to them. Even in today's NBA when a total of 215 is like the new baseline (when it was 204 or so just a few years ago), these three leaders in the East continue to surpass their numbers at a near 70% clip. When two of those three teams have squared off against one another, the 'over' is a perfect 3-0 so far, and that's with all three of those totals closing at least in the low 220's.
Now chances are the numbers for these totals will start to catch up to these three teams soon and more 'unders' will start to hit, and it begins for Milwaukee on Monday night. Their road game in Charlotte currently has a total of 234, but with about 70% of the action already on the high side, it appears many are going to ride with this trend as long as they can.
Who's Not
The Boston Celtics – League Worst 7-13 ATS
While the dysfunction out in Golden State dominates the media airwaves, it's the struggles of the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference that probably aren't getting the publicity that they should. Big things were expected from the Celtics this year after losing in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals last spring, knowing that stars like Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward would be back and healthy for this campaign. But this Celtics squad is just a .500 team through 20 games, and no team in the entire league as a worse ATS record than Boston at 35%.
Boston takes the court on Monday as they visit New Orleans, and the fact that this point spread has flipped from opening at Boston -1 to New Orleans -2 currently probably tells you all you need to know about how the betting market currently views this Celtics team. Some of that move might be injury related on both sides, but bettors are more likely to have been jilted by backing the Celtics at least once this year, sentiment is finally starting to significantly go against this Boston team. Twenty games may not be quite enough to really establish the old “they are who we thought they are” mantra about this Celtics unit, but it's still a 1/4 of the way through the year and Boston – a team one win away from the Finals last year without their two superstars – is still sitting at .500. There's got to come a point when the markets start to view this Celtics team as one that their current record shows, and maybe we've already reached that point.
However, as I touched on earlier with the thought that some 'unders' are coming for Raptors/Bucks/Sixers games, it may not be long until we see this Celtics team start cashing ticket after ticket. There is no question that November has not been kind to the Celtics (3-9 ATS), but two of those three ATS victories did come against current division leaders in the East (Toronto, Milwaukee) and that suggests that this Celtics team simply has a tough time “getting up” for many of these early season games to win by a significant margin.
That's no different than what we've seen from teams like Cleveland or Golden State in recent years, when playoff success tends to further the mindset that it's all about being at your best from about the All-Star break and beyond. The NBA season is a long and grinding one, and with the Celtics still showing they can beat the best of the best within their conference, I'd be willing to bet that this team will be fine long-term.
It may not happen this week or next, but Boston will start to turn their SU and ATS record around when a little more urgency kicks in. When that becomes the case remains to be seen, but when betting markets are so heavily influenced by recent results, the spreads for Boston in the foreseeable future could end up presenting quite a bit of value for “Bet ON” scenarios.
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