Wednesday 11-28-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Nov 28 '18, 7:30 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Virginia vs Maryland
Play on: Maryland +4½ -103 at betonline

10* FREE NCAAB PICK (Maryland +4.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Terps at home against No. 4 ranked Virginia. Maryland has a potent 1-2 punch in junior guard Anthony Cowan and sophomore forward Bruno Fernando, but the reason they are 6-0 is they are getting big time contributions from their supporting cast. Freshmen Jalen Smith, Aaron Wiggins and Eric Ayala are all playing big minutes and contributing in big ways. Virginia barely scraped by Wisconsin on a neutral floor and shot just 37% against the Badgers. I just don't trust the Cavaliers and that offense on the road in a hostile environment like what they will see tonight at the XFINITY Center. I'll take the points as insurance, but I'm expecting the Terps to win this game outright. Give me Maryland +4.5!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels

Nov 28 '18, 7:35 PM in 2h
NHL | Sharks vs Maple Leafs
Play on: Maple Leafs -160 at sportsbook

Free Play on Maple Leafs -160

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon

Nov 28 '18, 7:35 PM in 2h
NHL | Sharks vs Maple Leafs
Play on: UNDER 6 +100

FREE PLAY on Sharks/Maple Leafs under 6 +100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Smart

Nov 28 '18, 8:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-B | Northern Illinois vs Green Bay
Play on: Northern Illinois -1 -107 at 5Dimes

N.Illinos smashed Green Bay last season by DDs, and while this game should be much closer Im betting they have the edge again. This past weekend, the Huskies won the Men Against Breast Cancer Oakland Hoops Challenge. NIU was outstanding offensively in the tournament, averaging 84.3 points per game while shooting 55.1 percent from the field, 50 percent from three-point range and 76.3 percent from the free-throw line and are just to balanced for W.GBin their current form.
Darner is 0-6 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick as the coach of WI-GREEN BAY.
CBB Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WI-GREEN BAY) - after allowing 80 points or more against opponent after a blowout win by 20 points or more are a long term bad bet going 197-289 ATS for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Northern Illinois to cover

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

Nov 28 '18, 8:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-B | SIU-Edwardsville vs Western Illinois
Play on: SIU-Edwardsville +8 -110 at Bovada

1* Free Sharp Play on SIU-Edwardsville +8 -110
My money is on the Cougars to cover the 8-point spread on the road against the Leathernecks. This is just too many points for a team like Western Illinois to be laying. SIU-Edwardsville was only a 14.5-point dog at Valparaiso and they almost won that game, losing 75-70. Leathernecks managed just 49 points against Nebraska and are a mere 5-16 ATS in their last 21 after scoring less than 50 points. Bet the Cougars +8!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Davis

Nov 28 '18, 8:05 PM in 3h
NBA | Cavs vs Thunder
Play on: Cavs +12½ -105 at 5Dimes

I know I know, the Cavs have been terrible on the road this season, but there are stretches throughout the season where the bad teams show up and play. The Cavs have covered 3 of their last 4 including 2 outright wins.
I think this is a huge flat spot here for the Thunder who have had 3 days off and play the terrible Cavs with a terrible Hawks team on deck. You think they are looking forward to these two games? I highly doubt it.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Nov 28 '18, 8:05 PM in 3h
NBA | Cavs vs Thunder
Play on: UNDER 216 -110

1* Free Pick on Cavs/Thunder UNDER
The books have set the total too high for this contest. Both teams come in off a dreadful shooting night. Cleveland scored just 95 on 41.9% shooting at home against the Timberwolves on Monday and OKC managed just 98 at home against the Nuggets on 35.9% shooting last Saturday. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency and I just don't see them scoring enough here to eclipse this high total.
It's important to note that in the Thunder's loss to Denver, they trailed the Nuggets 63-42 at the half. It's only the 12th time in the last 3 seasons that OKC has trailed by 15 or more at the half. The UNDER has gone 10-1 the next game the previous 11 times. A lot of that being the Thunder bringing the defensive intensity after getting embarrassed.
Cleveland has seen the UNDER cash in 9 of their last 12 games, 4-1 in their last 5 vs the Western Conference and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a team that's won at least 60% of their games. UNDER is also 7-2 in OKC's last 9 vs the East and 4-1 in their last 5 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take the UNDER!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin

Nov 28 '18, 8:05 PM in 3h
NBA | Bulls vs Bucks
Play on: Bulls +14½ -105 at 5Dimes

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Chicago Bulls +14.5
The Bucks have been priced like the best team in the NBA here recently, and it’s starting to catch up to them. They are 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, losing outright to the Suns as 13.5-point favorites, failing to cover as 10-point favorites against the Spurs, and losing outright to the Hornets as 4.5-point favorites. They should not be laying 14.5 points to the Bulls tonight. This is a revenge-minded Bulls team that lost by 19 to the Bucks on November 16th less than two weeks ago. I anticipate they’ll put up a better fight in the rematch tonight. The Bucks are 19-47 ATS In their last 66 games as a favorite of 10 or more points. Give me the Bulls.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

Nov 28 '18, 8:05 PM in 3h
NBA | Wizards vs Pelicans
Play on: Pelicans -6 -107 at 5Dimes

There are three things we know for sure about the Pelicans: They score a ton of points ranking No. 2 in the NBA at 118.2 per game. They have the best big man in basketball, Anthony Davis, who is healthy again. And the Pelicans are tough at home where they are 8-2. These factors all contribute to the Pelicans being mid-sized favorites against the Wizards. Now, throw in short revenge and Washington in a flat spot and the Pelicans become a play for me. The Wizards are off a 135-131 home overtime victory against the Rockets on Monday. Washington defeated New Orleans, 124-114, in its previous home game this past Saturday. It's the Pelicans' turn to host the Wizards, who are 2-8 on the road this season. Washington has lost four of its past seven away matchups by 18 or more points. Davis did not play against the Wizards in that first matchup five days ago. He's back in the lineup and should dominate. Washington's only player who has any hope of slowing down Davis just a little bit is well-traveled veteran Dwight Howard and he's missed the last four games due to glute soreness. New Orleans isn't going to lack motivation. Not with short revenge and on a four-game losing streak, which includes a 124-107 home loss to the Celtics two nights ago. The Pelicans are not a good defensive team. But they should put out a strong effort after Boston made nearly 50 percent of its field goals and hit 19 3-pointers. John Wall and Bradley Beal are the only Wizards who average more than 13 points a game. New Orleans have five players averaging more than 15 points. So its offense isn't just about Davis. The Wizards are going against a lot of trends here, two of them being they are 4-13 ATS following an ATS win and 2-12 in their last 14 road games versus opponents with a winning mark. (Editor's note: Stephen Nover is one of the top NBA handicappers in North America and he's having another big season going 29-19 on his premium/free plays for 60 percent. Stephen has his NBA Total of the Month going today in addition to this free selection.)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Nov 28 '18, 8:05 PM in 3h
NBA | Wizards vs Pelicans
Play on: Pelicans -6 -107 at 5Dimes

My free play is on the NO Pelicans at 8:05 ET.
Two disappointing teams square off tonight in New Orleans, as the 8-12 Washington Wizards visit the 10-11 Pelicans. It's a fairly quick rematch, as the Pelicans lost at Washington 124-114 on Saturday. The Wizards have to be feeling better about themselves after winning three of their last four, including a 135-131 overtime victory over the Houston Rockets on Monday. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are looking to regroup after losing four in a row.
The Wizards got 68 points out of backcourt partners Bradley Beal (22.1) and John Wall (21.7 ) in the OT win over the Rockets. However, according to head coach Scott Brooks, Markieff Morris was the difference in the game. The power forward came off the bench to finish with 22 points on 8-of-12 shooting in 41 minutes. "I give Markieff (Morris) a lot of credit," Brooks told reporters. "He's stepped up. It's not an easy thing to accept, but that's what he does. He's a team guy, he made the adjustment and he's played well in that role. He's playing his best basketball off the bench. He's an important part of our team and he made a lot of big plays tonight." Washington was just 5-11 prior to the lineup change (3-1 since).
The Pelicans allow an average of 117.6 PPG (28th) and let the struggling Celtics shoot 49.5 percent from the floor in Monday's 124-107 home loss on Monday. They committed eight first-quarter turnovers, fell behind by 20 points in the second quarter, and could never catch up. New Orleans believes some of its problems on the defensive end stem from allowing teams extra possessions with turnovers on the other end of the floor. The Pelicans surrendered 32 points off 22 turnovers on Monday. The Pelicans are nothing if not streaky. New Orleans won its first four games, dropped the next six and won six of the following seven, before beginning its latest slide.
However, in this quick turnaround (from Saturday's meeting), I will take the home team. Washington is a poor 2-7 SU & ATS on the road, allowing 122.0 PPG. New Orleans ranks second in the NBA in scoring (118.2 PPG) and its loss to the Celtics was just the team's second at home in 10 games this season, the first in which All-Star forward Anthony Davis (27.0 & 12.8) played. The Pelicans are averaging 122.0 PPG at home this season and tonight, revenge works!
Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Josephs

Nov 28 '18, 9:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Northern Iowa vs Utah State
Play on: OVER 144½ -115

Utah State has embraced their new system and has been rolling offensively. So far at home this year they've scored 100, 94 and 65 as they want to get up and go. The defense has been fantastic for the most part this season outside of their last loss to Arizona State where they scored 87 points. Sam Merrill is averaging 22.2 points per game while shooting over 50% from the field. They also have five other guys who score eight points per game or more. UNI wants this game slow and methodical, but they struggle to get the pace to their liking on the road. They've allowed 72, 53, 85, 78 and 74 in their games outside of home. The offense isn't great, but I don't think I need as much from them. AJ Green is putting up over 18 per game with a lot of others chipping in. These two have combined for 9 overs in 11 lined games. I think this one is another over as well.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ross Benjamin

Nov 28 '18, 9:15 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Purdue vs Florida State
Play on: Florida State -3½ -109 at 5Dimes

Ross Benjamin has an NBA and college basketball 5* winner on Wednesday night. Cash in on both the Jazz/Nets (7:35 ET) and on a college basketball underdog shocker by purchasing now and collecting immediately after each game goes final.
Purdue @ Florida State 9:15 PM ET
Game# 759-760
Play On: Florida State -3.5 (5*)
These teams both enters this game with identical 5-1 (.833) records. Purdue is coming off an 84-46 blowout win over Robert Morris in which they covered as a sizable 24.5-point favorite. This sets up an extremely profitable college basketball point-spread betting angle which is illustrated below.
Any home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5-points with a winning record, versus an opponent (Purdue) coming off a double-digit favorite ATS cover and they have a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 39-13 ATS (75%) during the past 5 seasons. Take Florida State minus the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Info Plays

Nov 28 '18, 10:00 PM in 5h
NCAA-B | Portland State vs Stanford
Play on: Portland State +14 -110 at YouWager

1* Free Play on Portland State +14 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DONNY ACTION NCAA Basketball FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES ‑3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

OverandUnder NBA ORLANDO MAGIC/PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS o214