Saturday 12-1-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-01-2018, 12:26 PM

NCAAF

Week 14

Trend Report

Saturday, December 1

East Carolina @ North Carolina State
East Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 7 of East Carolina's last 9 games on the road
East Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing North Carolina State

North Carolina State
North Carolina State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
North Carolina State is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games

Akron @ South Carolina
Akron
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Akron's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Akron's last 7 games

South Carolina
South Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of South Carolina's last 5 games

Drake @ Iowa State
Drake
No trends to report

Iowa State
Iowa State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Iowa State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Texas @ Oklahoma
Texas
Texas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma
Texas is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games

Oklahoma
Oklahoma is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Oklahoma's last 8 games

Marshall @ Virginia Tech
Marshall
Marshall is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Marshall is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road

Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Marshall
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Virginia Tech's last 5 games when playing Marshall

Louisiana-Lafayette @ Appalachian State
Louisiana-Lafayette
No trends to report

Appalachian State
No trends to report

Alabama-Birmingham @ Middle Tennessee
Alabama-Birmingham
No trends to report

Middle Tennessee
No trends to report

Norfolk State @ Liberty
Norfolk State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Norfolk State's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Norfolk State's last 5 games

Liberty
Liberty is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Liberty is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games

Incarnate Word @ Iowa State
Incarnate Word
Incarnate Word is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Incarnate Word is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

Iowa State
Iowa State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Iowa State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Stanford @ California
Stanford
Stanford is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing California
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Stanford's last 8 games

California
California is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of California's last 7 games

Memphis @ Central Florida
Memphis
Memphis is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Central Florida
Central Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Central Florida is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Memphis

Alabama @ Georgia
Alabama
Alabama is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Alabama's last 7 games when playing Georgia

Georgia
Georgia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Georgia's last 7 games when playing Alabama

Fresno State @ Boise State
Fresno State
No trends to report

Boise State
No trends to report

Clemson @ Pittsburgh
Clemson
Clemson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Clemson is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

Northwestern @ Ohio State
Northwestern
No trends to report

Ohio State
No trends to report

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-01-2018, 12:26 PM

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 14

Saturday, December 1

UAB @ Middle Tennessee St

Game 307-308
December 1, 2018 @ 1:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
UAB
84.450
Middle Tennessee
80.850
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
UAB
by 3 1/2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Middle Tennessee
by 1 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
UAB
(+1 1/2); Over

Memphis @ Central Florida

Game 309-310
December 1, 2018 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Memphis
98.165
Central Florida
96.529
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Memphis
by 1 1/2
67
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Central Florida
by 3 1/2
64 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Memphis
(+3 1/2); Over

Texas @ Oklahoma

Game 311-312
December 1, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas
103.856
Oklahoma
106.681
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oklahoma
by 3
72
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oklahoma
by 8
78
Dunkel Pick:
Texas
(+8); Under

LA-Lafayette @ Appalachian St

Game 313-314
December 1, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA-Lafayette
76.558
Appalachian St
90.781
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Appalachian St
by 14
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Appalachian St
by 18
58 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA-Lafayette
(+18); Over

Georgia @ Alabama

Game 315-316
December 1, 2018 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia
105.337
Alabama
126.427
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Alabama
by 21
59
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Alabama
by 13 1/2
64
Dunkel Pick:
Alabama
(-13 1/2); Under

Fresno State @ Boise State

Game 317-318
December 1, 2018 @

Dunkel Rating:
Fresno State
93.134
Boise State
99.220
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boise State
by 6
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boise State
by 2 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boise State
(-2 1/2); Over

Pittsburgh @ Clemson

Game 319-320
December 1, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
96.114
Clemson
119.254
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Clemson
by 23
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Clemson
by 27 1/2
53
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+27 1/2); Under

Northwestern @ Ohio State

Game 321-322
December 1, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Northwestern
97.601
Ohio State
103.483
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio State
by 6
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ohio State
by 15 1/2
61 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Northwestern
(+15 1/2); Under

Drake @ Iowa State

Game 323-324
December 1, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Drake
44.743
Iowa State
100.552
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Iowa State
by 56
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Iowa State
by 42
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Iowa State
(-42); Over

Norfolk St @ Liberty

Game 325-326
December 1, 2018 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Norfolk St
34.871
Liberty
70.591
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Liberty
by 35 1/2
64
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Liberty
by 29 1/2
59 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Liberty
(-29 1/2); Over

East Carolina @ NC State

Game 327-328
December 1, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
East Carolina
72.852
NC State
92.615
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NC State
by 20
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NC State
by 23 1/2
60 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
East Carolina
(+23 1/2); Over

Marshall @ Virginia Tech

Game 329-330
December 1, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Marshall
81.448
Virginia Tech
83.355
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Virginia Tech
by 2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Virginia Tech
by 4 1/2
53
Dunkel Pick:
Marshall
(+4 1/2); Under

Akron @ South Carolina

Game 331-332
December 1, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Akron
67.044
South Carolina
93.590
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
South Carolina
by 26 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
South Carolina
by 30
56
Dunkel Pick:
Akron
(+30); Under

Stanford @ California

Game 333-334
December 1, 2018 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Stanford
90.065
California
94.663
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
California
by 4 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Stanford
by 3 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
California
(+3 1/2); Under

Southern U @ Alcorn State

Game 335-336
December 1, 2018 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Southern U
55.639
Alcorn State
53.141
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Southern U
by 2 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Southern U
Pick
53
Dunkel Pick:
Southern U
Under

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-01-2018, 12:27 PM

NCAAF

Week 14

Saturday
Conference USA, Murfreesboro, TN
Middle Tennessee whacked UAB 27-3 last week here, outgaining Blazers 394-89; Blazers hit on only 9-27 passes, ran for minus-1 yard. MTSU is 3-1 vs UAB in C-USA meetings. Blazers lost last two games, after winning eight in row; all three of their losses this year are by 21+ points. MTSU won five of last six games after a 3-3 start; their senior QB is the coach’s son. UAB/Middle Tennessee State are both in this game for first time; UAB didn’t even field a team n 2015-16, due to budget issues- they’re 17-8 since reviving the program. Three of last four UAB games went over the total.

AAC, Orlando
Central Florida QB Milton tore up his knee LW, is out here; Knights won their last 25 games, edging Memphis 31-30 Oct 13, their only win this year by less than 11 points. Memphis ran ball for 281 games vs UCF, outgaining Knights 490-461. UCF won its last 10 games vs Memphis, beating Tigers 62-55 in OT in this game LY. Backup QB Darriel was 5-14/81 passing in relief of Milton LW. Memphis won its last four games after a 4-4 start, scoring 47+ points in three of the four games; Tigers ran ball for 401 yards in 52-31 win over Houston LW. Four of last five Memphis games went over; seven of last eight UCF games stayed under.

Big X, Arlington, TX
Texas (+7.5) beat Oklahoma 48-45 Oct 6; Longhorns were +3 in turnovers that day- yardage was 532-501, OU. Sooners fired their DC after the game. Teams split their last six meetings, with underdogs covering all six games. As a head coach, Tom Herman is 8-1-1 vs spread as an underdog. Oklahoma is 6-0 since Texas loss, scoring 48+ points in all six games, scoring 51+ five times; Sooner defense allowed 640-524-704 yards in their last three games. Longhorns won their last three games, giving up 10-17 points in last two; Texas is 2-3 when it gives up 21+ points. Over is 10-1-1 in Oklahoma games this year. Sooners are in this game for 10th time, going 8-1 in previous nine visits. Texas is 3-2 in Big X title tilts.

Sun Belt, Boone, NC
Appalachian State is in only its 5th year of I-A football; they’re 39-11 the last four years, 5-0 vs Louisiana, beating the Ragin’ Cajuns 27-17 back on October 20, when ASU ran ball for 258 yards. App State won its last four games, allowing average of only 10.3 ppg. ASU is 9-2 this year with an OT loss at Penn State when they outgained the Nittany Lions. Louisiana won its last three games after a 4-5 start; Cajuns have allowed 200+ rushing yards in seven games this year. Four of last six ULL games, five of last seven App State tilts stayed under the total.

SEC, Atlanta
Alabama is 12-0 this season; closest game they’ve played was 45-23 over Texas A&M. Georgia is 11-1 with a 36-16 loss at LSU; Dawgs won their last four games- under Smart, they’re 3-1 as an underdog, 0-0 this year. Alabama beat Georgia 26-23 in OT for the national title LY; yardage was 371-365- this is only teams’ 5th meeting the last 11 years, with Crimson Tide winning last four by 11-4-28-3 points. Bama won national title LY but didn’t make SEC title game, which Georgia won over Auburn. Crimson Tide won their five SEC title games; Georgia is 3-3 in this game. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Georgia games, 6-3 in last nine Alabama games.

Mountain West, Boise
Fresno State is 10-2 but lost 24-17 (-2.5) on blue carpet Nov 9, first time Broncos had been home underdog in almost 20 years. Fresno allowed 20 or fewer points in nine of their ten wins; they’re 1-2 when allowing more than 20. Under Tedford, Bulldogs are 4-0 as road underdogs. Fresno is 1-2 in this game, with both losses to Boise (28-14/27-14, LY). Boise won its last seven games after a 3-2 start; Broncos were held under 60 yards rushing in both their losses. Boise is 4-2 as a home favorite this year, after going 4-15 the previous three years. Under is 7-1 in last eight Fresno games. 4-0 in last four Boise games.

ACC, Charlotte
Clemson is in ACC title game for 4th year in row, winning last three by 8-7-35 points over three different teams, while scoring 41.7 ppg. Clemson is 12-0 this year, despite playing freshman QB; their last seven wins are all by 20+ points. Tigers gave up 510 PY in 56-35 win over Palmetto State rival South Carolina LW— total yardage in game was 744-600. Pitt is in ACC title game for first time; Panthers won four of last five games after a 3-4 start; they had scored 40.8 ppg in last four games before 24-3 loss at Miami LW. Pitt is 5-3 vs spread as an underdog this year. Three of last four Pitt games stayed under the total.

Big 14, Indianapolis
Ohio State is on fringes of making national playoff; impressive win here and an Alabama win in SEC game makes it a OSU/Oklahoma decision for 4th seed. Buckeyes won last four gamess, but also allowed 31+ points in four of last five games- they hammered arch-rival Michigan 62-39 LW, so this could be little bit of a letdown. OSU ran ball for 283-249 yards last two weeks. Northwestern won seven of its last eight games after a 1-3 start; Wildcats are 4-1 this year in games decided by 4 or fewer points. Ohio State is 2-1 in this game, beating Wisconsin 27-21 here LY; Northwestern is in its first Big 14 title game.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-01-2018, 12:28 PM

Tech Trends - Week 14
Bruce Marshall

Saturday, Dec. 1

UAB at MIDDLE TENNESSEE (Conference USA title game, Saturday, December 1)...After covering seven straight this season, UAB HAS dropped last three vs. number. Blazers just 3-5 vs. spread last 8 away from Legion Field. UAB 8-4 as dog since last season. MTSU, however, has covered last five this season.
Slight to MTSU, based on recent trends.

MEMPHIS at UCF (American title game, Saturday, December 1)...UCF 3-0 SU in series since last season though just 1-1-1 vs. number. Tigers just 2-3 vs. line away this season but just 4-5-1 as dog for Mike Norvell since 2016. UCF covered 5 of last 6 at home this season.
UCF, based on team trends.

TEXAS vs. OKLAHOMA (Big 12 title game at Jerry Jones AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX, Saturday, December 1)...Horns have covered last six in series, all as dog, winning outright on Oct. 6 at Cotton Bowl. Tom Herman 2-0 as dog this season, 7-1 in role with Texas, 12-1 since 2015 with Houston & Longhorns as dog. Sooners only 4-8-1 vs. line since late 2017.
Texas, based on team and series trends.

UL-LAFAYETTE at APPALACHIAN STATE (Sun Belt title game, Saturday, December 1)...Ragin’ Cajuns covered Oct. 20 at App and ended season on 7-2 spread uptick. ULL also covered 4 of last 5 as dog this season. App, however, 7-2-2 vs. spread in 2018.
Slight to UL-Lafayette, based on recent trends.

GEORGIA vs. ALABAMA (SEC title game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA, Saturday, December 1)...Georgia 12-3 vs. spread last 15 away from Athens, Kirby Smart also 5-2 as dog since 2016. Bulldogs have covered last five bowl/playoff games. Tide 4-6 vs. spread in bowl/playoff/SEC title games since 2013.
Georgia, based on team trends.

FRESNO STATE at BOISE STATE (Mountain West title game, Saturday, December 1)...Fresno no covers last three this season but Bulldogs were 18-3-2 vs. spread for Jeff Tedford prior and 23-5-2 previous 30 on board since mid 2016. Fresno 6-0 as dog for Tedford (all of that in 2017). Bulldogs blew lead in loss and non-cover at Boise on Nov. 9. Boise has covered last three this season and was 3-2 as home chalk this season, but just 7-17 laying points on blue carpet since 2015. Fresno covered in MW title games at Boise in 2014 and 2017.
Fresno State, based on team trends.

PITTSBURGH vs. CLEMSON (ACC title game at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC, Saturday, December 1)...Pitt had covered six straight in 2018 prior to Miami loss. Panthers 9-6 as dog since last season and 5-3 getting DD since 2016 under Pat Narduzzi. But Pitt only 3-3 vs. spread away this season. Clemson only 6-6 vs. line this season though did have mid-to-late-season 5-game cover streak. Though not technically a bowl, note Panthers 1-5 vs. spread in last six of those.
Slight to Clemson, based on team trends.

NORTHWESTERN vs. OHIO STATE (Big Ten title game at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN, Saturday, December 1)...Underdog team was a remarkable 11-0-1 vs. spread in NU games this season! Wildcats 5-0-1 as dog themselves. Buckeyes 1-6 their last seven as chalk this season and 1-4 vs. spread last five away from home.
Northwestern, based on team trends.

AKRON at SOUTH CAROLINA (Saturday, December 1)...Zips just 2-6 vs. spread their last eight on board this season though did cover both of their non-MAC games on road. Bowden 6-11-1 last 18 on board since mid 2017. Gamecocks have covered their last four vs. non-SEC foes and 8-4 last 12 on board since late 2017.
Slight to South Carolina, based on team trends.

EAST CAROLINA at NC STATE (Saturday, December 1)...ECU 4-7 vs. line this season, 10-24-1 vs. spread since Scottie Montgomery took over in 2016. Also 1-6 vs. line last seven vs. non-AAC foes.
NC State, based on ECU negatives.

STANFORD at CALIFORNIA (Saturday, December 1)...Big Game! Cal on 5-game cover streak TY after dropping previous 5 vs. line, and Wilcox 10-4 as dog since LY. Tree however is 5-1-1 vs. spread last seven away from Farm. Stanford had covered five straight in series until LY.
Slight to California, based on team trends.

MARSHALL at VIRGINIA TECH...Herd 2-0 as dog this season, 8-0 in role since 2017! Marshall 8-3-1 vs. line last 12 away from home and 7-2 vs. points last nine vs. non-CUSA. Hokies had dropped 6 in a row vs. line before Virginia upset and no covers last four as chalk.
Marshall, based on team trends.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-01-2018, 12:28 PM

Sharps hit Georgia odds early for college football showdown vs. Alabama
Patrick Everson

College football has reached its conference championship week, from which will come the four teams competing in this season’s College Football Playoff. We check in on the opening lines and early action for the Power Five conference title games, with insights from Derek Wilkinson, supervisor at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-13.5)

Defending national champion Alabama is one of two remaining CFP contenders with an unblemished record. The Crimson Tide (12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS) had little trouble with rival Auburn in the Iron Bowl, posting a 52-21 victory as 25.5-point home favorites to cap the regular season.

Georgia stubbed its toe in a mid-October loss at Louisiana State, but responded with five straight double-digit victories (4-1 ATS). The Bulldogs (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) dispatched Georgia Tech 45-21 as 17-point home faves last weekend.

“We took some sharp money on Georgia right away. We’ve moved it down to -13 for now,” Wilkinson said of early activity for Saturday’s game in Atlanta. “I think the public is going to like Alabama at less than a two-touchdown favorite, but the sharp money is going to be on Georgia. We’re anticipating this line to go to 12.5 or stay at 13 throughout the week. Most of the money will still be on ‘Bama though.”

No. 17 Utah Utes vs. No. 16 Washington Huskies (-5.5)

Washington crashed Washington State’s party to steal first place in the Pac-12 North and earn a trip to Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., for Friday night’s conference title game. Last weekend, the Huskies (9-3 SU, 3-9 ATS) went off as 2.5-point road underdogs and emerged with a 28-15 outright victory over the archrival Cougars.

Utah won seven of its last eight games (6-2 ATS) en route to winning the Pac-12 South Division. The Utes (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) capped the run with a nonconference victory over Brigham Young, rallying from a 27-7 deficit to win 35-27 laying 10.5 points at home.

“We opened this line at -5.5, and I still think that’s too low,” Wilkinson said. “However, most of the betting market is even lower at 5. We haven’t taken any action yet, but I’m anticipating most of the money to come in on Washington.”

No. 14 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners (-7)

The Red River Rivalry gets a repeat performance, with Oklahoma aiming to avenge its only loss of the season, a 48-45 setback laying 7 points at the Cotton Bowl on Oct. 6. The Sooners (11-1 SU, 4-7-1 ATS) followed with six consecutive victories, but cashed just once (1-4-1 ATS), barely escaping West Virginia last week with a 59-56 win as 3-point road favorites.

Texas won its last three games to secure a spot in this Big 12 final, to be played Saturday at AT&T Stadium, home of the Dallas Cowboys. Last week, the Longhorns (9-3 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) fended off Kansas 24-17 laying 15.5 points on the road.

“We already took a decent five-figure bet on Oklahoma at -7,” Wilkinson said. “We’re at -7.5 now, and I think that line is going to go up. Oklahoma just scores too many points for Texas to keep up.”

No. 24 Pittsburgh Panthers at No. 2 Clemson Tigers (-25)

Clemson is a monster favorite in the Atlantic Coast Conference title game as it aims for another trip to the CFP. The Tigers (12-0 SU, 6-6 ATS) capped their perfect regular season with a 56-35 nonconference victory over South Carolina as 25.5-point home faves.

Pittsburgh put together a 5-1 stretch (6-0 ATS) beginning in early October, helping it secure a spot in Saturday’s conference final in Charlotte, N.C. However, the Panthers (7-5 SU and ATS) got drilled at Miami in the regular-season finale, 24-3 as 6-point road underdogs.

“Although we haven’t gotten any major bets on it yet, we’ve already moved up with the market to -26,” Wilkinson said. “This game is being played in Clemson’s backyard, and Pittsburgh looked pretty bad last week against Miami. I think that line will either stay at 26 or possibly go a little higher. I also think Clemson is going to cover it.”

No. 19 Northwestern Wildcats vs. No. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes (-13.5)

Ohio State still has a glimmer of CFP hope, thanks to a blowout victory of its archrival last weekend. The Buckeyes (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) went off as 3.5-point home pups to Michigan, but rumbled to a 62-39 victory.

Northwestern found its way to Indianapolis for Saturday’s game by going 7-1 SU in its last eight outings. The Wildcats (8-4 SU, 6-4-2 ATS) finished with a 24-16 victory over Illinois giving 16 points at home.

“We’ve gotten some big bets on both sides of this game already,” Wilkinson said. “Currently, we have Ohio State favored by 14, and I think that’s a good line. Ohio State is going to win, but I don’t think it will be as dominant a performance as the Buckeyes had against Michigan last week.”

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-01-2018, 12:29 PM

Games to Watch - Week 14

This coming weekend will arguably be the biggest of the year, as it is when we will see the conference championship games take center stage. It goes without saying that these are the games that we are going to focus on here, but since we will be looking at the Power 5 conferences a little later in the week, we will spend out time here talking about some of the smaller conferences and the games being played there.

These are not games that will have any impact on the final playoff standings, but they are still match-ups worthy of your time and your wagering dollars.

UCF Knights (-3 -115) vs. Memphis Tigers (+3 -105)

The AAC Championship Game will provide UCF with the opportunity to continue an unbeaten streak that has now extended through two full seasons. The problem that the Knight have here is that they will be forced to try and win without their QB McKenzie Milton, who went out of last weeks game with a truly gruesome knee injury. It’s worth remembering that the Knight had to come from behind to beat Memphis 31-30 when they met earlier in the season, so they could well be in trouble in this one without their starting QB. The Knights are talented enough to rise up and put on a show here, but I think they come up short.

ULL Ragin’ Cajuns (+17½ -110) vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers (-17½ -110)

Of all the teams that play in the Sun Belt, it may well be the Mountaineers that we all know best. After all, they have, over the years, made a habit of scaring the life out of Power 5 teams, just as they did in Week 1 this season against Penn State. The Mountaineers needed a Troy loss last week to get into this one and will be going against a Cajuns team that won 3-straight to win their division. When these two met earlier in the season, it was the Mountaineers who came away with a 10-point win. I think we can expect more of the same here.

UAB Blazers (+1 -110) vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-1 -110)

In a strange twist of scheduling, these two teams will be meeting for the second straight week, although this time, the winner will be walking away with the Conference USA title. Last week, it was the Blue Raiders scoring the comfortable 27-3 win in a game that they started as a 3-point underdog. That meant that the Blazers ended the season on a 2-game losing skid, although they did have the division locked up by then. The bookies have this as a close one, and while I don’t like the fact that UAB haven’t won for a couple of weeks, I think they get the win here.

Fresno State Bulldogs (+2½ -105) vs. Boise State Broncos (-2½ -115)

Boise State come into this one with the opportunity to repeat as champions of the Mountain West Conference against a Fresno State Bulldogs team that they have already beaten once this season. That win was part of a 7-game win streak that the Broncos went on to close out the season, although it was a tight defensive battle that ended in a 24-17 win for Boise. Let’s not count out Fresno State here, though, as the loss to the Broncos is the only defeat they have taken in their last 10 games. I am on Fresno State to get revenge and emerge as the conference champion.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-01-2018, 12:29 PM

By: Monty Andrews

Milton on the Mend

Central Florida will play for the American Athletic Conference title this weekend with injured quarterback McKenzie Milton on their minds. Milton suffered a gruesome leg injury in the Knights' 38-10 win over South Florida last week and will undergo reconstructive surgery on his right knee at a later date. But the good news is, a nerve at the site of the injury remained intact and blood flow has been restored to his lower leg. Milton finishes his Junior season with Central Florida with some eye-popping numbers, having thrown for 25 touchdowns while adding nine scores on the ground.

Oddsmakers are making the Milton injury a major factor in Central Florida's AAC championship game against visiting Memphis, with the host Knights just 3.5-point favorites despite having won 24 consecutive games. But with the home team a sizzling 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings and the UCF defense almost as strong as its offense, the Knights are a strong cover play.

Gamecocks Going for a Big Cover

Not every game this weekend will decide a conference championship; for the South Carolina Gamecocks, it's simply an opportunity to rack up one more dominant victory heading into bowl season. The Gamecocks host the Akron Zips in a non-conference showdown scheduled after South Carolina had a Sept. 15 meeting with Marshall postponed due to Hurricane Florence. The Zips aren't expected to be competitive in this one, coming in as 30-point underdogs to a Gamecocks side that fell 56-35 to Clemson last time out, but has covered in four consecutive games.

With South Carolina a perfect 2-0 ATS when favored by 30 or more points this season – outscoring the opposition 98-24 in those victories – and the Zips coming in having scored just 41 total points in their past three games, the Gamecocks are a great option not only to cover, but to hold the visitors below their team total, which sits at 13 as of Wednesday.

No Hope for Hokies' Run Game?

If the Virginia Tech Hokies hope to upend visiting Marshall in the regular-season finale for both teams, it will probably be through the air. The Thundering Herd come into the game having allowed a minuscule 2.8 yards per carry on the season so far, and rank sixth in Division I in yards allowed per game on the ground (100.5). And if that weren't daunting enough for the hosts, Marshall also ranks 16th in the country in third-down conversion defense (32 percent), while the Hokies are well below the national average in third-down success rate (37.3 percent).

With the Marshall defense looking as strong as ever (38 points allowed over the past three games), taking the visitors to win this one outright is a strong value play at +160. The Thundering Herd should also be able to keep the Hokies below their team total of 27.5 if they can control the time of possession.

Last Labor of Love

The "Big Game" could be missing a big contribution from a running back who began the season as a Heisman Trophy candidate. Bryce Love will look to wrap up a difficult Pac-12 season on a positive note as he leads the Stanford Cardinal into Memorial Stadium for a date with Cal. Love began the year as one of the leading candidates for college football's top individual awards, but injuries and ineffectiveness have him sitting on 655 rushing yards and six touchdowns. The Golden Bears boast one of the top run defenses in Division I, limiting foes to 136 yards per game on 3.9 YPC.

Love had 101 yards in last year's meeting with the Bears, but 57 of them came on a single rush – and he has had just one rush of 30 or more yards in his last five games. With just one 100-yard game on the year and the Cardinal expected to give Cameron Scarlett some work, we recommend taking the Under on Love's rushing yard total.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-01-2018, 12:29 PM

Total Talk - Week 14

It was a good final week of the regular season to follow the steam on the college football totals I outlined in this piece last week. All that money on the Stanford/UCLA 'over' and Rutgers/Michigan State 'under' go there with ease on those respective contests, but while Miami did get some revenge on Pitt for their 2017 loss, that dominant “turnover chain” defense the Hurricanes had in 2017 showed up as well, keeping that contest well below the number.

Now that the regular season has concluded, there are fewer CFB games on the betting board, but that doesn't mean that we haven't seen significant movement already on some totals. This week tends to be one of the more heavily bet weekends of the year in college football because of the stakes in play, and there was no need to wait until later in the week to get this piece out.

So let's get right to the bigger movers of the week on these totals to see if you are looking to jump on board now, or wait and possibly go the other way closer to kick-off.

Biggest Movers to the 'Over'

Fresno State vs. Boise State: Open: 49 – Current: 53

The Mountain West championship will be decided on the “Smurf Turf” at Boise State again this year, as it's a rematch between Boise State and Fresno State from last year's game. This will be the third time in the six-year history of the Mountain West title game that these two programs have squared off, and Boise State has hosted and won both of the previous two matchups. Neither of those title games finished with more than 42 total points scored, and considering the regular season matchup between these two finished with 41 total points, this big move upwards is a little surprising.

Both of these programs finished with winning records to the 'under' this year – Fresno was 4-8 O/U and Boise was 5-7 O/U – and yet this is a move that on the surface looks to be one that should be followed before it's faded. For the number to quickly jump through a key number of 51 and still hit another key number of 53 is something that can't be taken lightly, and with Boise's offense scoring 45 and 33 points in their two games since beating Fresno, the Broncos attack is riding a strong wave of momentum right now as well. Weather forecasts are calling for ideal early December weather in Boise so their shouldn't be much concern there either.

The fact that betting percentage numbers offered at VegasInsider.com show it's only about a 55/45 split in favor of the 'over' suggests it's a move to be followed as well, although the only concerning thing in that regard is the notion that the value in taking the 'over' is all but gone now and we will likely see some buyback to the low-side closer to kick-off. After all, each of these two teams finished the regular season on 0-4 O/U runs, and each of the past four meetings between the two have stayed 'under' as well with no more than 45 points scored in any of those games.

That makes this total one I'm more interested in monitoring as the week goes on, simply because if there is some buyback on the 'under' it will be interesting to see what happens if the total drops back to that key number of 51. Clearly there was plenty of love (and respect) in the markets for going 'over' that key number here as maybe we do see a game where it's something like 28-24 for either side. We did see how well following the steam did a week ago though, no matter the number, so if forced to make a play on this total now, it would have to be siding with the move on the high side of things.

Biggest Movers to the 'Under'

Memphis vs. UCF: Open: 70 – Current: 65

This move is much easier to explain as the big drop in the number is basically injury related. UCF lost QB McKenzie Milton to a horrific leg injury a week ago, and backup QB Darriel Mack Jr was able to do enough to keep the lead, get the W, and keep the undefeated UCF season intact. However, it's not like the freshman Mack was all that impressive in the effort (5-for-14 passing for just 81 yards) as he did enter the game with a double-digit lead and let the running game bring things home. If UCF wants to remain unbeaten this year, that can't be the case against a high-powered Memphis team that's looking for some revenge after a one-point defeat to UCF earlier this year.

UCF will likely lean heavily on the ground game once again this week, as they don't particularly want to get into a shootout without Milton at the helm. That should lead to the clock continuously running quite a bit here as UCF's defense does what it can to contain Memphis, and it's not like the Knights haven't been a great 'under' team recently either. UCF enters this championship game on a 1-7 O/U run overall and that's something casual fans/bettors might not figure when they think about this UCF program.

From a betting perspective now, the value in this number is long gone, and while the likelihood of some buyback isn't going to be necessarily as strong here as it could be in Fresno/Boise, I believe this total is nothing but a pass now. It's not like Memphis' defense hasn't been gashed on the ground this year, and UCF still has some explosive RB's in that stable of theirs that could break one off at any moment. The Tigers own attack can put up points in a hurry, and knowing that they don't have to deal with Milton in this game, building a multi-score lead early in the 2nd half and then going into prevent mode and giving up a few scores could be very decisive in the ultimate result on this total. Last year's meeting in the championship game was an epic OT shootout that finished with 117 points scored, so if you hadn't already gotten a piece of this 'under' at a better number, it's probably best to pass on this total now.

Best Total Bet for Championship Saturday

Georgia vs. Alabama Under 63.5

The SEC championship game is one that the entire CFB world has been waiting on for weeks now as it's a rematch from last year's National Championship, and one you know this Georgia team has been excited about for weeks. The Bulldogs have wanted to get another crack at 'Bama all year long, and with a win putting Georgia into the CFB Playoff again and a loss eliminating them, the stakes couldn't be much higher for the Bulldogs this week.

And while both programs have made improvements on offense this year compared to when they met last season, I do believe the number is still slightly too high all things considered. For one, an Alabama loss doesn't “guarantee” them a spot in the CFB playoff if it were to come in ugly fashion, and with that as the backdrop to Nick Saban's game planning, you can bet that he'll have his defense overly prepared for what he expects to see from Georgia.

At the same time, Kirby Smart will have his Bulldogs defense very prepared for what he expects to see from Alabama, as they did get caught off guard in the title game when Saban made the QB switch to Tua in the 2nd half. Like Alabama, Georgia has basically had a month to prepare and install bits of the game plan into their unit and that's never a bad thing for 'unders.'

Finally, both teams are coming off consecutive games of 'overs' cashing to end the year, with Alabama putting up 50+ in both wins, while Georgia averaged 50+ in their two victories. Those results have to be taken into consideration when putting out a total for this week, and because of them, I do believe the total is slightly inflated. Remember, the total for the National Title game a year ago closed at 45.5 and was a dead ringer for the 'under' before Alabama forced OT, and it still could have cashed had Georgia been the only team to score in that extra frame. Even with the improved offenses, this number is nearly three TD's higher than last year's meeting, and with two elite SEC teams going at it – a conference that's known for defense – I have a hard time seeing where 64+ points will come from.

Alabama had only two SEC games this year where the total closed in the 60's or higher and both of those games did find a way to cash 'under' tickets. This SEC title game should be no different as somewhere in the mid-50's is likely where this score tops out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-01-2018, 12:30 PM

ACC Championship Preview
Joe Williams

Matchup: Clemson vs. Pittsburgh
Date: Saturday, Dec. 1
Time/TV: 8:00 p.m. ET - ABC
Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Location: Charlotte, N.C.
Line, Total: Tigers -27.5, 52.5

The Atlantic Coast Conference will crown a champion in Charlotte on Saturday, and the playoff-hopeful Clemson Tigers (12-0 straight-up, 6-6 against the spread) are largely expected to run away in a rout over the Pittsburgh Panthers (7-5 straight-up, 7-5 against the spread).

These teams will be meeting for the first time since the Panthers stunned the Tigers 43-42 in Death Valley on Nov. 12, 2016 as 21 1/2-point underdogs.

Clemson rolled through the schedule without many scares, especially after the early portion of their schedule. They squeaked out a 28-26 win at Texas A&M on Sept. 8, and narrowly escaped with a 27-23 win over Syracuse on Sept. 29. That near-miss against the Orange served as a wake-up call, as they combined to win their next four games against Wake Forest, N.C. State, Florida State and Louisville by a combined 240-36. They finished up with a pair of non-covers against Duke and rival South Carolina, but those games were never really in doubt, especially in the second half.

Pitt will be making their first-ever ACC title game appearance, and they took the circuitous route to get there. No one seemed to want to win the Coastal Division. Everyone had three or more conference losses except for the Panthers, who despite losing five games overall, had just two losses in the league. Despite the fact they're in the championship game, they have a point differential of just plus-3. They were routed by Penn State 51-6 on Sept. 8. They were routed at UCF by a 45-14 score on Sept. 29. They were toppled 19-14 by Notre Dame on Oct. 13, and they were punched in the mouth by a 24-3 score in Miami in the season finale. The last game was perhaps the most excusable, as the young Panthers already had the ACC title game berth sewn up and they just didn't show to the stadium. It snapped a six-game cover streak dating back to Sept. 29.

The Tigers are making their fourth consecutive appearance in the ACC title game, and they're a perfect 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. They routed the Hurricanes 38-3 as 12 1/2-point favorites last season, and they're nearly a four-touchdown favorite to take home the hardware for a fourth straight year. They have also won five straight appearance in the ACC title game after losing their initial appearance to Georgia Tech during the 2009 installment of this game.

Clemson ranked third overall in the country with 540.1 yards per game, and they checked in fifth in the land with 45.7 points per game (PPG). They have a very balanced attack, ranking 12th in the country in rushing yardage per game at 257.8 yards, while finishing 24th in passing yards per game at 282.3 yards. They're not one of those one-trick pony teams who need to outscore teams because of a poor defense. Their D is nasty, too. They allowed just 290.2 yards per game to rank ninth in the nation, and they allowed just 91.8 yards per game on the ground to finish second overall. They also gave up 14.0 PPG, finishing fourth.

Tigers QB Trevor Lawrence took over the starting duties early in the season from the departed QB Kelly Bryant, and he managed to complete 200-of-303 (66.0 percent) for 2,488 yards, 22 touchdowns and four interceptions while also running for 133 yards and a score. RB Travis Etienne emerged as a superstar, gobbling up 1,308 rushing yards with 19 touchdowns and a ridiculous 8.0 yards per carry. RB Lyn-J Dixon was a nice change of pace with 531 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 10.2 yards per tote. RB Tavien Feaster also plunged into the end zone six times.

In the passing game it's WR Tee Higgins trying to be the next great Clemson receiver. He led the way with 49 grabs, 766 yard and eight touchdowns, while WRs Justyn Ross, Amari Rodgers and Hunter Renfrow combined for 1,615 yards and 11 touchdowns, with Ross getting into the end zone six times. Renfrow (head) is listed as questionable for Saturday's game due to a head injury suffered late in the season.

For the Panthers, QB Kenny Pickett finished the season strong, completed 62.3 percent of his passes for 1,825 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions and he rushed for 186 yards and three scores on the ground. He isn't necessarily a dual threat, but teams do have to be mindful for the occasional run. Speaking of running, RB Qadree Ollison finished with 1,134 yards and 10 scores to lead the way, giving Pitt a home-run hitter on the ground. RB Darrin Hall is also dangerous in the run game, averaging 7.6 yards per tote, rolling up 935 yard with nine scores. WR Taysir Mack and WR Maurice Ffrench were the best of the lot in the passing game, both nearly 500 yards. Ffrench led the team with six receiving yards, and he is a demon on special teams, too.

Betting Trends to Watch

-- The Tigers have racked up an impressive 10-2 ATS mark in their past 12 neutral-site games, while going 5-1 ATS in the past six ACC battles and 5-2 ATS in the past seven overall. Clemson is also 7-1 ATS across their past eight games played in the month of December.

-- Pitt has been crazy against the number lately, going 6-1 ATS in the past seven games overall while cashing in five of the past six ACC battles. The Panthers are also 4-1 ATS in the past five battles against teams with a winning record. However, Pitt is just 1-5 ATS in the past six appearances on a neutral-site field.

-- For Clemson, the 'under' is 6-2 in their past eight games in December while the under is 11-5 in Clemson's past 16 against teams with a winning record.

-- For Pittsburgh, the 'under' is 17-7-1 in their past 25 games, while hitting in 11 of the past 16 conference battles. The under is also 9-3 in the past 12 against teams with a winning overall record. However, the 'over' is 4-1 in their past five appearances on a neutral-site field.

ACC Championship History

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-01-2018, 12:30 PM

Big 12 Championship Preview
Joe Williams

Matchup: Oklahoma vs. Texas
Date: Saturday, Dec. 1
Time/TV: 12:00 p.m. ET - ABC
Venue: AT&T Stadium
Location: Arlington, Tex.
Line, Total: Sooners -8, 77.5

The Big 12 Championship Game has major playoff implications this season, and for the first time in the title game's history we get a rematch of the Red River Rivalry. That's exactly what the league was hoping for when the league revived the championship game last season.

The Oklahoma Sooners (11-1 straight-up, 4-7-1 against the spread) will be looking for revenge against the rival Texas Longhorns (9-3 straight-up, 5-6-1 against the spread) after falling 48-45 in the neutral-site game at the Cotton Bowl back on Oct. 6. The Longhorns won that game outright as seven-point underdogs as the 'over' (60) easily connected in that outing. Now the teams will meet on the even faster track of the field turf surface at Jerry World in Arlington.

Oklahoma lost QB Baker Mayfield, last season's Heisman Trophy winner, to the NFL's Cleveland Browns with the No. 1 overall pick. In stepped QB Kyler Murray, and the Sooners haven't missed a beat. In fact, he might be on his way to New York City looking to give the team back-to-back bronze statues. OU opened with three straight victories, including a 37-27 revenge-game win at Iowa State on Sept. 15. They received quite a scare from Army of all teams, surviving 28-21 in overtime back on Sept. 22. They spurred them on, as they doubled up Baylor 66-33 to head to Dallas for that Longhorns game at 5-0 SU/2-3 ATS. We know what happened there, but they bounced back to win six straight outings while scoring 48 or more points in all six of their final games. In fact, they rolled up at least 37 points in 11 of their 12 contests, although they closed out the season 0-3-1 ATS in the final four.

This will be Oklahoma's 10th appearance in the Big 12 championship game, and their sixth trip in the past seven installments of this game. Oklahoma appeared last season against Texas Christian at AT&T Stadium and they routed the Horned Frogs 41-17 as 7 1/2-point favorites. They have been favored in all nine of their previous appearances in this game, posting an 8-1 ATS mark,

The Longhorns are back in the Big 12 title game for the first time since 2009 when they eeked out a 13-12 win over Nebraska despite entering as two-touchdown favorites. This is their sixth appearance in the Big 12 championship game, and they're 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS in their previous five battles.

Things didn't start out so well for Texas, as they were topped 34-29 in a neutral-site battle against Maryland in the opener on Sept. 1. They edged Tulsa 28-21 in their home opener, but still were not hitting on all cylinders. It wasn't until at 37-14 win on Sept. 15 against USC that the Longhorns looked to be on their way back. Two more wins in September and then the Red River Rivalry victory, and Texas was in the Top 10 and they had championship hopes. Oklahoma State ended their playoff dreams 38-35 in Stillwater on Oct. 27, and a loss the next week at home against West Virginia by a 42-41 score looked like the end of the road. They rebounded for wins at Texas Tech and at home against Iowa State, while surviving at Kansas to punch their ticket back to the Metroplex.

Texas ranked 60th in the nation with 414.2 total yards per game, and they were 38th in passing yards (257.4 YPG). Their rushing offense, normally a staple in Austin, was just so-so, as they ranked 84th overall in that department. They did average 31.7 points per game (PPG) in their 12 games to check in 46th.

Longhorns QB Sam Ehlinger (shoulder) seized the starting job and he ran with it, rolling up 2,774 passing yards, 23 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He was also a threat in the run game, posting 376 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground. He has been battling a raw right shoulder, and that's something to watch in the game in case he takes a hard hit to the joint.

RB Keaontay Ingram was the co-leader in the backfield with Tre Watson. Ingram posted 676 rushing yards (5.2 YPC) while finding the end zone three times, and Watson was good for 656 yards (4.3 YPC) and three scores on the ground. In the pass game it's WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey who led the way with 72 grabs, 1,058 yards and eight touchdowns while WRs Collin Johnson and David Duvernay combined for 1,236 yards and 10 scores. Watson and Ingram combined for 41 grabs for 260 yards and five scores out of the backfield.

Oklahoma's offense was prolific, and their defense somewhat pathetic. That leads to a lot of video-game like performances. The Sooners ranked No. 1 in the country with 583.9 yards per game, and they were also No. 1 in points scored (50.3 PPG). OU had a balanced attack with 264.5 yards per game on the ground, while rolling up 319.4 yards per game through the air to rank eighth in both categories. However, they were just 110th in the country in defense, allowing 449.0 yards per game and 32.8 PPG, ranking 100th.

Murray completed 70.6 percent of his passes, as the Oakland A's draftee and Heisman hopeful has the world in his hands right now. He'll be a rich man playing either pro baseball or pro football. Will this be his final college game? There is talk speculating he could sit in the bowl game to protect himself for the future. Murray rolled up 3,674 yards, 37 touchdowns and seven interceptions while running for 853 yards and 11 more scores.

RB Kennedy Brooks led the way with 993 yards on the ground while finding the end zone 12 times. RB Trey Sermon managed 863 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground. WR Marquise Brown was good for a team-best 1,264 receiving yards with 10 scores on 70 grabs, averaging a gaudy 18.1 yards per snare. WR CeeDee Lamb was also a deep threat, posting 882 yards and nine scores on 51 grabs. The Longhorns will have to account for WR Lee Morris, who ended up finding the end zone eight times.

Betting Trends to Watch

-- The Longhorns have posted a 5-1 ATS mark in their past six neutral-site contests, although they failed to cover in Week 1 this season in such situation. They're also 13-5-2 ATS in the past 20 against teams with a winning overall mark.

-- The Sooners have struggled against the number, going 0-3-1 ATS in their past four inside the league. They're also a dismal 0-3-1 ATS in their past four attempts against teams with a winning overall record. OU has managed a 2-9 ATS record in the past 11 neutral-site battles, too.

-- As far as the total is concerned, the 'under' is an impressive 42-17 in the past 59 league games while going 5-0 in the past five in the month of December. The 'under' is also 30-11 in the past 41 against teams with a winning overall record, while going 25-10 in the past 35 following a straight-up win.

-- For OU, the 'over' is 5-0 in their past five against teams with a winning record. The over is also 19-7 in their past 26 and 36-15-1 in the past 52 inside the Big 12. However, the 'under' is 7-3 in the past 10 neutral-site battles.

-- Texas has covered six straight head-to-head meetings, with the underdog cashing in each of the past six battles.

Big 12 Championship History

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-01-2018, 12:31 PM

Pac-12 Championship Preview
Joe Williams

Matchup: Utah vs. Washington
Date: Friday, Nov. 30
Time/TV: 8:00 p.m. ET - FOX
Venue: Levi's Stadium
Location: Santa Clara, Calif.
Line, Total: Huskies -5, 44.5

The Pac-12 Championship Game kicks off on Friday night at Levi's Stadium, and we'll get some new blood in the battle. The Utah Utes (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) survived in the South Division, and they will be making the first-ever appearance in the league's title game. In fact, it might be the school's most important game since Kyle Whittingham took them to the Sugar Bowl against Alabama back in 2008.

The Washington Huskies (9-3 straight up, 3-9 against the spread) surprised the 10-win Washington State Cougars last weekend in the Apple Cup, pushing their rivals out of first place to claim the Pac-12 North for themselves. The season started with championship expectations of high proportions. However, a loss in a neutral-site battle against Auburn in the opener, and a couple of conference road setbacks against Oregon and California forced the Huskies to refocus.

The Utes lost in their conference opener back on Sept. 15 against the Huskies by a 21-7 score at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City as the 'under' (45.5) connected. The Utes followed that loss with a 28-24 setback in Pullman against Washington State, and an appearance in the conference championship game certainly didn't appear very possible with an 0-2 SU league start. However, Utah pulled together for an impressive 40-21 road victory at Stanford on Oct. 6, kicking off a four-game winning streak and cover streak to get right back into the thick of things. During the span the offense posted 40 or more points and things were humming again. The only loss since Oct. 6 was a 38-20 loss at Arizona State, but the team rebounded with three straight wins against Oregon and Colorado, as well as their rivalry game in the Holy War against Brigham Young in the season finale, 35-27. After a 1-3 ATS start, Utah ended up 6-2 ATS over their final eight outings.

The Huskies are making their second appearance in three seasons in Santa Clara, representing the North Division. They rolled past Colorado 41-10 in the 2016 installment to easily cover as 8 1/2-point favorites as the 'under' (55.5) cashed in that one. As mentioned, Washington won their conference opener Sept. 15 in SLC, and they fired out to a 3-0 SU/1-2 ATS start in the conference. They lost a heartbreaker in Oregon on Oct. 13, dropping a 30-27 decision in overtime, a game which could have been a win in the fourth quarter if not for a missed field goal. While that game might have knocked them out of contention for a national playoff spot, a stunning 12-10 loss at Cal on Oct. 27 looked like a potential death blow to their conference title hopes. The Huskies went 2-9 ATS in the first 11 outings, including an 0-6 ATS run from Oct. 6 through Nov. 17. However, they won in a snowy Apple Cup in Washington State to find their way back to the Bay Area and a potential Rose Bowl bid.

The Huskies ranked 52nd in the nation in total yards (421.2 YPG), while posting a very ordinary ranking of 64th in passing yards (236.2 YPG). They were a very ordinary 53rd in rushing yardage, too, posting 185.0 yards per contests with 28.0 PPG, ranking 77th in the country.

Senior QB Jake Browning took another step backward after his magical 2016-17 season. He completed 65.1 percent of his pass attempts (196-for-301) for just 2,692 yards with 16 touchdowns and nine interceptions while rushing for 114 yards and four scores this season. Senior RB Myles Gaskin missed some time due to injury at the end of October, but he still managed to roll up 1,076 yards (5.1 yards per carry) with 10 touchdowns, including 143 yards and a score in the win against Utah in mid-September. Sophomore RB Salvon Ahmed, the heir apparent to Gaskin in the backfield, posted 576 yards and seven touchdowns while actually outgaining Gaskin in yards per carry (6.3 to 5.1). Junior WR Aaron Fuller was good for a team-high 754 yards on 49 grabs with four touchdowns, while sophomore WR Ty Jones, a Utah native, led the team with six receiving scores.

This defense is championship caliber, and the secondary is littered with NFL prospects. Washington allowed 311.2 total yards per game which ranked 13th in the land, and their 16.5 points per game allowed was good for eighth in the country. Junior S Taylor Rapp is a game changer and heavy hitter in the secondary.

Utah averaged 414.0 total yards per game to rank 61st in the country, while the team scored 30.8 PPG to check in 54th in the nation. It was all about the run game, as they rolled up 201.0 yards per game to finish 40th in the land. Like Washington, it all starts and stops with defense for Utah. They were 15th in the country in total yards allowed (317.1 YPC), while yielding just 101.6 yards per game on the ground to finish sixth in the nation. They also allowed 19.2 PPG to end up 17th in the country.

Junior QB Tyler Huntley (collarbone) is listed as questionable for Friday's game. He completed 149-of-233 passes for 1,762 yards, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions while also posting 304 rushing yards with four scores. He is a dual-threat signal caller for sure, checking in third on the team in rushing. If he cannot go it would be freshman QB Jason Shelley (54-of-96, 723 yards, three TD, one INT) taking the reins. No matter who is under center, they'll be handing off to junior RB Zack Moss, who led the team with 1,092 rushing yards (6.1 yards per carry) and 11 touchdowns. Junior RB Armand Shyne is the change-of-pace back, posting 442 yards and five scores on 95 carries. WR Brittain Covey is the Swiss Army Knife for Utah. He ran for a score, had a receiving touchdown and he was the primary kickoff and punt return specialist, too. He ranked 103rd in the country with 1,137 all-purpose yards.

Betting Trends to Watch

-- The Utes head into the game 5-0 ATS in their past five appearances on Friday, for whatever that's worth. They're also 7-1 ATS in their past eight appearances on a grass surface, while going 10-3-1 ATS in the past 14 against teams with a winning record. Utah has cashed in four of the past five outings on a neutral site field, while cashing in six of their past seven conference tilts. They have covered six of the past eight overall.

-- The Huskies have also excelled on Fridays, going 6-2 ATS in the past eight on the day. However, they're struggled with just one cover across the past eight conference battles, while going 1-6 ATS in the past seven overall and 1-4 ATS in the past five against winning sides. The Huskies have also failed to cover in each of their past five appearances on a grass surface.

-- The 'over' has connected in four straight for Utah against teams with a winning overall mark, although the under is 7-3 in the past 10 outings on grass.

-- For Washington, it's been all 'under' all the time. The under is 9-3 in their past 12 overall, while going 6-2 across the past eight neutral-site battles. In addition, the under has hit in eight of the past nine games against teams with a winning record.

-- In this series, the underdog has hit in five of the past six battles, while the 'over' is 4-1 across the past five battles, with the under hitting earlier this season.

Pac-12 Championship History

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-01-2018, 12:32 PM

By: Monty Andrews

First-Half Bull Rush

The Buffalo Bulls have their sights set on the MAC Championship – but the Northern Illinois Huskies stand in their way as the teams prepare to do battle Friday night at Ford Field in Detroit. The Bulls have punished opponents in the opening half of recent games, scoring 28 or more first-half points in three of their previous four games. Buffalo is one of only 17 teams in the country averaging better than 20 first-half points against Division I opponents, while the Huskies find themselves near the bottom of the nation in that category with just nine points per game.

Bettors should consider pouncing on the 1H props in favor of the Bulls. We suggest leaning toward Buffalo on the 1H spread, and we're even more insistent on the Over on the Bulls' 1H total.

Can Memphis Stifle UCF on Third Down?

The Memphis Tigers are the only team over the past year to have a legitimate shot at ending Central Florida's 24-game win streak – and the visitors will take their third crack at beating the Knights in just over a year as the teams meet Saturday at Spectrum Stadium in Orlando. It's a rematch of last year's American Athletic Conference title game, which UCF won 62-55 in overtime; the Knights also beat Memphis 31-30 earlier this season in their closest call to date. Memphis held UCF to 2-for-12 on third down in that game, and have limited their last four opponents to a 35.2-percent success rate.

Memphis comes in as a 3.5-point underdog, but the Tigers' improved third-down defense – combined with recent success against a UCF team that will be without without starting quarterback McKenzie Milton – makes the visitor a trendy cover play. We also like the Tigers to hold the Knights below their 34.5-point team total.

Back to the Touchdown Well

When Boise State and Fresno State met in regular-season action three weeks ago, we recommended taking a Broncos touchdown as the first scoring play because these teams love them some first-quarter TDs. And of course, it was a Boise State field goal that ended up cashing. So let's go right back to that prop as the Broncos and Bulldogs meet again, this time to decide the Mountain West championship at Albertsons Stadium in Boise. The teams combined for 117 touchdowns and just 22 field goals during the season, while converting a combined 22-of-37 field goal attempts.

Boise State is a 2.5-point favorite, and is a good bet to kick off the scoring again. And this time, we like them to actually convert the TD, which pays out at +140.

Going For It

Don't be surprised to see Appalachian State take some chances as they look to secure the Sun Belt championship against Louisiana on Saturday afternoon at Kidd Brewer Stadium. The Mountaineers were one of the top fourth-down teams in the country, making good on 12 of their 20 opportunities (60 percent). And that presents a major challenge for the Ragin' Cajuns, who were downright dreadful on fourth-down defense this season, allowing teams to convert 18 of 24 changes (75 percent) – the third-worst mark in the nation. App State went 1-for-2 in a 27-17 win over Louisiana on Oct. 20.

The Mountaineers are 16.5-point favorites for Saturday's rematch – and if they connect on a few fourth-and-short situations, they should be in great position to cover. The potential boost in App State's time of possession will also make the Under on Louisiana's team total of 20.5 a viable option.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-01-2018, 12:32 PM

Big Ten Championship Preview
By ASA

Ohio State (-14.5) vs. Northwestern - (FOX, 8:00 PM ET)
Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, Indiana

Ohio State – OSU enters the Big Ten Championship game with an 11-1 overall record, 8-1 in the Big Ten. Their lone loss was a bad one as Purdue trounced the Buckeyes 49-20 back on October 20th. Last week they were a home underdog to arch rival Michigan for the first time since 2004. They didn’t look like the underdog on the field as they routed the Wolverines 62-39. The Michigan defense had allowed a TOTAL of 105 points in their 8 Big Ten games entering last week. OSU lit them up for more than half that season total in one game. It was the most points OSU has EVER scored in this rivalry and the most points Michigan has EVER allowed in a game period (in regulation). That win pushed Ohio State’s record vs their rival to 14-1 the last 15 meetings.

The Buckeye offense was as explosive as it’s been all season long scoring TD’s on plays of 24, 24, 31, 78, 2, 1, and 16 yards and almost 30% of their offensive plays 19 of 67) went for at least 10 yards. This team is obviously very talented and it took being an underdog at home to Michigan to bring their “A” performance. They had muddled through much of the conference season struggling to beat teams they should have handled easily. They were just 2-6 ATS in Big Ten play entering last week’s game. Can they bring their peak performance again this week versus a “ho-hum” opponent?

They didn’t for most of the season, however they now have the College Football Playoff in sight and may need a big win here to get there. OSU’s mental state after last week’s emotional win will be key to handicapping this game. The Buckeyes lead the league in total offense by large margin as they average 523 YPG which is 70 YPG more than Nebraska who checks in at 2nd place. However, on defense OSU has fallen off big time from last year as they allow 403 YPG which is 130 YPG more than they gave up in conference play last season. This will be OSU’s 5th appearance in this game in 9 seasons.

Northwestern – The Cats come into this game with just an 8-4 overall record, but a near perfect 8-1 mark in Big Ten play. Pat Fitzgerald’s troops are now 15-1 SU their last 16 conference games dating back to last season. They weren’t always overly impressive in doing so as just one of their eight conference wins came by more than 10 points. Last week they were favored by 16 at home against state rival Illinois and came away with a tight 24-16 win. That was just one week after the Illini lost 63-0 at home to Iowa. Illinois actually outgained the Cats 435 to 375, however with a 21-6 lead at halftime, Fitzgerald pulled many of his starters in the 2nd half as they had already locked up a spot in the Championship game.

Even as the game tightened up late in the 4th quarter with the Illini driving for the potential tying score, Fitzgerald kept most of his regulars on the bench. The defense stiffened late and picked off an Illini pass at their own 17-yard line to ice the game. Despite only losing one conference game, Northwestern was outgained in Big Ten play by an average of 27 YPG (344 YPG offense / 371 YPG defense) and by 0.7 YPP (4.7 YPP offense / 5.4 YPP defense).

Offensively they rank 12th in the league in total offense and 13th in rushing although they’ve run the ball better as of late averaging 166 YPG their last 5. They rely heavily on their QB Clayton Thorson who will be starting his 52nd consecutive game under center which is a Big Ten record. Defensively they rank 5th in the Big Ten in total defense and 4th against the rush. This will be the Wildcat’s first ever appearance in the Big Ten Championship game.

Inside the Numbers – OSU is favored by 14 in this one and it’s the first time in Big Ten Championship history that a team has been favored by double digits. Last year Ohio State was favored by -5.5 in this game and won 27-21 covering the number by a half point. It was the first time in Big Ten Championship history the favorite actually covered the game as the dog is now 6-1 ATS.

Not only has the favorite struggled to cover in this game, they are just 4-4 SU. The Buckeyes have owned this series winning 30 of the last 31 meetings outright with Northwestern’s only win coming in 2004. OSU has been favored in all 25 games played in this series since 1980 and they are 16-9 ATS in those games. Northwestern is 6-0-1 ATS as a dog this year with point spread wins over both Michigan & Notre Dame. Going back even further, the Cats are 22-6 ATS the last 28 times they’ve been getting points.

History

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-01-2018, 12:33 PM

Saturday's Group of 5 Tips
Joe Nelson

Playing for a championship is the goal of every program and eight conference champions will be decided on Saturday.

College Playoff berths are not likely on the line in the Conference USA, American, Sun Belt, and Mountain West games but all four contests will be rematches to fill out the championship Saturday schedule. One of these teams should also get called for the top Group of 5 spot in the New Year’s Six.

CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP

Match-up: UAB Blazers at Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
Venue: At Johnny Floyd Stadium in Murfreesboro, Tennessee
Time/TV: Saturday, December 1, 1:30 PM ET, CBSSN
Line: Middle Tennessee State -1, Over/Under 44½
Last Meeting: November 24, 2018 at Middle Tennessee State (+3) 27, UAB 3

UAB wasn’t playing football two years ago and after a successful bowl season in last year’s re-boot the Blazers look to take another step this season with a division title and a shot a the conference title. Middle Tennessee State is also in the Conference USA Championship for the first time looking to keep a run of four consecutive championships for the East division champion going.

Bill Clark stayed with UAB through the two-year hiatus after coaching the Blazers for his first season in 2014 following one year at Jacksonville State. UAB was perfect at home this season in a 9-3 campaign though the team enters this game off back-to-back losses, falling 41-20 to Texas A&M and then in last week’s game in Murfreesboro. Senior quarterback A.J. Erdely miss three November games before returning last week with freshman Tyler Johnston filling in with similar numbers as both could see the field this week.

Rick Stockstill won a Sun Belt title in his first season with the program in 2006 and this will be his first trip back to a championship game, leading mostly successful results over now 13 seasons with an 87-76 record and no losing seasons in Conference USA play. Last year’s team had a lot of potential but his son Brent was injured most of the year. Back as a senior quarterback the younger Stockstill has posted terrific numbers this season and he missed most of the one conference game the Blue Raiders lost at Florida International.

These schools are only about 200 miles apart as a good crowd should be expected even with some potential rain in the forecast for Saturday.

Regular Season Meeting: These teams met just last week on the same field. The incentives were vastly different however as Middle Tennessee State needed to win to get to this game and shortly after kickoff knew that Florida International had lost to make it a win-and-win-the-division-title game. UAB had already clinched its division and had little at stake last week and it showed, ultimately posting only 89 net yards of offense and not scoring again after taking a 3-0 lead on the opening drive in an eventual 27-3 result.

Series History: UAB won last season’s meeting 25-23 while Middle Tennessee State has won four of seven meetings since 1995 with a 3-2 ATS run in lined games since 2000.

AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP

Match-up: Memphis Tigers at Central Florida Knights
Venue: At Spectrum Stadium in Orlando, Florida
Time/TV: Saturday, December 1, 3:30 PM ET, ABC
Line: Central Florida -3, Over/Under 65
Last Meeting: October 13, 2018, Central Florida (-4½) 31, at Memphis 30

This will be the fourth meeting in two seasons for these programs with UCF looking to extend the nation’s longest winning streak to 25 games with a second straight conference title. The storyline however will be the absence of quarterback McKenzie Milton who was injured for UCF in last week’s win over South Florida.

In last year’s championship game these teams put on a show with Milton helping to deliver a 62-55 win in double-overtime with both teams eclipsing 700 yards of offense in a game with several big swings. UCF has won the regular season meetings the past two years as well, getting a lopsided home win last year and this year winning in Memphis by one-point with a second half comeback.

The Tigers are one of the nation’s top rushing teams with Darrell Henderson posting 1,699 yards so far and Memphis posting 6.4 yards per carry for nearly 276 yards per game. Replacing a highly productive quarterback, junior Brady White has been effective in his first season after transferring from Arizona State. Freshman Darriel Mack will start at quarterback for UCF with Milton out. Mack did play in entire game in the win over East Carolina but that has been his only meaningful action this season. He is much bigger than Milton and a serious rushing threat but likely not nearly the same caliber performer in the passing game at this point in his career.

Regular Season Meeting: In a highly anticipated rematch of the 2017 championship game Memphis took command early with a 30-14 edge until just before halftime. UCF trimmed the deficit to just six points in the third quarter and then took a one-point lead in the fourth. Memphis fumbled twice in the second half to wind up shut out in the second half at home and losing despite a 281-165 rushing edge.

Series History: Central Florida has won S/U 12 meetings in a row in this series going back to 2005 with the last win for Memphis coming in 1990 when UCF was not playing at the top college football level. Memphis has gone 4-2-1 ATS in the seven meetings going back to 2010.

SUN BELT CHAMPIONSHIP

Match-up: UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns at Appalachian State Mountaineers
Venue: At Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone, North Carolina
Time/TV: Saturday, December 1, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN
Line: Appalachian State -18, Over/Under 59
Last Meeting: October 2, 2018 at Appalachian State (-25½) 27, UL-Lafayette 17

The Sun Belt split into two five-team divisions this season and will join the Championship Weekend with the inaugural title game this weekend after often featuring a full regular season schedule in this final weekend in previous years. There was great drama in determining the division champions this season with last week’s results meaningful and the heavy Sun Belt favorite to open the season, Arkansas State, did not make it.

Scott Satterfield led a 4-8 FCS squad in his first season in Boon in 2013 but has had a winning season every year since the program jumped to the FBS level in 2014. The Mountaineers are 3-0 in bowl games the past three years and 39-11 the past four years combined while going 28-4 in Sun Belt play in that span. Expect Satterfield to field interviews from prominent openings if he so chooses as he has done a remarkable job. This year may have been his best work as the roster appeared to be in a major transition with the loss of several key players from last season.

The one game in Sun Belt play that Appalachian State lost came without quarterback Zac Thomas at Georgia Southern and the numbers were dominant for the Mountaineers with a 255-108 scoring record in going 7-1 in league play. Appalachian State went 5-0 at home on the season and nearly upset Penn State in the opening week on the road.

Louisiana started the season 1-3 but losses at Mississippi State and at Alabama certainly are forgivable. The Ragin’ Cajuns beat Arkansas State at home 47-43 and last week earned this spot by besting rival UL-Monroe on the road 31-28. The Ragin’ Cajuns played both Appalachian State and Troy on the road for a difficult crossover draw and lost both games by 10 points in lower scoring games. In going 5-3 in Sun Belt play Louisiana outscored foes by just 24 points while being outscored overall on the season despite being 7-5.

Regular Season Meeting: As a massive home favorite Appalachian State led just 17-10 at the half before pulling away. The final score was 27-17 but Louisiana scored with 63 seconds to go to make the final margin tighter, though the yardage edge for the Mountaineers was modest at 372-328. The ground game was the key with a 266-140 rushing advantage for the Mountaineers at home.

Series History: These teams have met each of the last five years with five straight wins for Appalachian State, going 3-2 ATS including 2-1 in the home meetings.

MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP

Match-up: Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos
Venue: At Albertson’s Stadium in Boise, Idaho
Time/TV: Saturday, December 1, 7:45 PM ET, ESPN
Line: Boise State -2½, Over/Under 50½
Last Meeting: November 9, 2018, at Boise State (+2½) 24, Fresno State 17

These teams met in the Mountain West title game last season with a 17-14 win for Boise State with a 90-yard touchdown drive for the lead late in the fourth quarter. That was after Fresno State defeated Boise State at home the previous week to close the regular season. These teams also met in the 2014 MWC Championship, also a win but missed cover for Boise State.

The stakes are potentially higher this season as if UCF loses to Memphis now playing without its star quarterback, the victor of this game could be the highest rated Group of Five squad in line for a New Year’s Six bowl bid. Boise State is currently 22nd while Fresno State is 25th in those rankings. UCF is 8th and could potentially hold the highest ranked spot with a loss though that would be an unusual precedent to set as they wouldn’t be a conference champion and would likely look like a much less promising team without Milton.

Marcus McMaryion and Brett Rypien are both in the nation’s top 12 in QB Rating and both seniors are coming to the close of excellent seasons and careers. They have combined to throw only 10 interceptions in nearly 800 attempts. Defense has been the key for Fresno State however, second nationally allowing just 13.5 points per game with a significant edge in pass defense relative to Boise State. The Broncos are 119-7 S/U at home since 1999 for truly the toughest home field edge in the nation however.

Regular Season Meeting: As a rare home underdog Boise State fell behind 17-3 early in the third quarter. The Broncos rallied to win in the fourth taking a 24-17 edge while Fresno State had a missed field goal while getting stopped on downs in Boise territory on its final two possessions. Boise State had a 448-390 edge in yards and committed the only turnover in the game.

Series History: Boise State is 15-4 S/U in this series since 1996 with a 13-5 ATS record however Fresno State has covered in four of the past five meetings. This will be the MWC Championship matchup for the third time in the last five years with a 28-14 win for Boise in 2014 and a 17-14 win over Boise last season with the Broncos hosting all of those games. Fresno State did win S/U hosting Boise State in the regular season in 2013 and 2017 but has not won in Boise since 1984.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 12-01-2018, 12:33 PM

The Triple Option: College football Conference Championship Week picks and predictions
Andrew Caley

It’s hard to believe another college football season has come to an end. That’s right, we’re at conference championship week.

But that means another season of The Triple Option comes to a close. And while we weren’t as profitable in Year 2 as we were in Year 1, profit is never something to turn down. We went a respectable 22-17 this season (56.4). And it would have been a little better if Notre Dame didn’t let USC march down the field at the end of the game for a meaningless backdoor cover last week.

Luckily for us we have one more chance to improve on, or tank, that record by picking every conference championship game this week in a special edition of the Triple Option. This year we're up to 10 conference Championship games with the Big 12 and the Sun Belt joining the mix. (Covers' editorial staff will be doing our Bowl Pick'em challenge once again this season in which we pick every Bowl game, so there will be still ample time to fade me hahaha).

Thank you all once again for reading and following this season. I hope you enjoyed reading the column as much as I had writing it. So, let's eat up one more batch of winners and some awesome eats with the complete compilation of all of this season’s recipes. Thanks again and good luck as always. Now, it's showtime!

Sun Belt Championship – Louisiana vs Appalachian State (-17, 58)

The Sun Belt championship game is also a rematch, as Appalachian State hosts Louisiana for the second time this season. The Mountaineers defeated the Ragin’ Cajuns 27-17 as big 24.5-point home favorites back on Oct. 20.

Appalachian State is the class of the Sun Belt going 9-2 this season, but Louisiana head coach Billy Napier (and former Nick Saban assistant) has already started to change the culture for the Ragin’ Cajuns. After a 1-3 start (to be fair two of those games were against Alabama and Mississippi State), Louisiana has won six of its last eight games scoring nearly 38 points per contest.

This game will be determined on the ground as both Louisiana and App State rank in top 20 in rushing at 230.2 and 242.5 yards per game respectively. So, the big difference between these two teams is on defense, where the Mountaineers dominated the conference and rank fourth in the country in total yards and fifth in points allowed.

Appalachian State should ride this edge to another win, but I really like what Napier has done in his first season at Louisiana and the Ragin’ Cajuns will put on a respectable show.

Pick: Louisiana +17

Big 12 Championship – Texas vs Oklahoma (-8, 77.5)

Hey, look! Another rematch! This time it’s a rematch of one of the best games in college football this season when Texas upset Oklahoma 48-45 as 7-point underdogs in an instant classic back on Oct. 6.

We all know the narratives this time around. Kyler Murray and Tom Herman as an underdog.

Murray leads the nation’s No. 1 offense in terms of total yards and scoring. The incredible two-sport athlete is completing over 70 percent of his passes for 3,674 yards with 37 touchdowns compared to just seven interceptions. He also has another 800-plus rushing yards and 11 majors on the ground.

But as good as the Sooners have been on offense, they have been almost equally as bad on defense. They own the third worst passing defense in the country and rank 100th in points allowed at 32.8 per game. Over their last four contests its been even worse ballooning to an obscene 47.3 ppg and are 0-3-1 ATS in those games.

For Texas, quarterback Sam Ehlinger is healthy enough and racked up 314 passing yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in the last meeting. He should be able to go blow for blow with Murray here.

I just don’t have any faith in Oklahoma to cover a number this large with a defense this bad. And of course, Tom Herman is 10-1-1 ATS (2-0-1 this season) in his career as an underdog.

Pick: Texas +8

AAC Championship - Memphis vs UCF (-3, 64.5)

Straight up. This line scares the hell outta me.

UCF is looking to wrap up its second straight undefeated season and New Year’s Six bowl game berth when it takes on Memphis in the AAC Championship. But they will have to do it without their heart and soul after quarterback McKenzie Milton suffered a devastating knee injury in last week’s win over USF.

Despite no Milton, oddsmakers still have the Knights favored. And I’m not sure why. UCF should have lost when these teams faced off in Memphis last month and probably would have if it wasn’t for two fourth quarter fumbles and some poor last-minute play calling by the Tigers. And that was with Milton at quarterback.

UCF backup quarterback Darriel Mack Jr. will make just his second career start. His first came in a 37-10 walkover against East Carolina where he completed 12-20 passes for just 69 yards but put up 120 yards and a touchdown on the ground. However, Memphis is decent at stopping the rush and has collected 15 sacks over its last three games.

Let’s not forget about likely All-American running back Darrell Henderson. The junior running back has racked up 1,699 at a clip of 8.6 yards per carry with 22 total touchdowns and ran all over UCF in their last meeting for 199 yards and a score.

UCF will definitely be dedicating this game to Milton, but I’m not sure that amounts to much. What’s life like if you’re not a little scared sometimes? Memphis extracts some revenge and wins outright.

Pick: Memphis +3

SEC Championship – Alabama vs Georgia (+12.5, 63.5)

For me, this may bet the easiest game to cap this weekend.

Every week, even with these massive spreads, there seems to be whispers of “What if Alabama losses?” Guess what. They’re not going to lose. Guess what else. It’s not going to be close.

Alabama has passed every test this season with flying colors. I mean, they shutout then ranked No. 3 LSU in Death Valley and then ranked No. 16 Mississippi State at home in consecutive weeks! They covered the 25.5-point spread in the Iron Bowl. Just crazy stuff.

They rank at or near the top of every major statistical category (outside field goal percentage) you can think of. And Tua is just an unfair weapon for Nick Saban to have at his disposal. He creates too many mismatches on the field and the defense is getting better every week.

This is obviously a huge rematch for Georgia, who were seconds away from a national championship before Tua TagovaIloa happened. And they need almost certainly need a win to qualify for the CFP, but I just don’t see it happening. Georgia is good, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t think they’re that much better than LSU, who by the way, the Bulldogs lost to by 20 back in mid October.

Tua and this Tide squad Saban has assembled is special. Lay the points. Bama will wins by 20.

Pick: Alabama -12.5

Mountain West Championship – Fresno State vs Boise State (-1, 52.5)

These Mountain West rivals have faced off three times since last November with the Broncos taking two of the three meetings, both of which were on the blue field of Albertson Stadium. Speaking of which, the Bulldogs have never won on the blue field. Ever.

Both teams head into this game with 10-2 records with Fresno State at 8-4 ATS and Boise State at 7-4-1 ATS. The Broncos have the better offense, while the Bulldogs have the better defense. But Broncos running back Alexander Mattison is on fire right now, rushing for 489 yards and six touchdowns in his last three games, including 144 yards and two scores against the Bulldogs just a few weeks ago.

In matchup this close, I’m giving the edge to who I think is the better quarterback, and to me that’s Brett Rypien. Throw in the blue field advantage and the Broncos capture back-to-back Mountain West titles.

Pick: Boise State -1

ACC Championship – Clemson vs Pittsburgh (+27.5, 52.5)

I honestly can’t believe this is the sad matchup we get for the ACC title game. Earlier this season I was convinced Pitt would be near the bottom of the ACC Coastal standings and maybe one of the worst teams in the country. They were blown out by Penn State and UCF and lost to a two-win UNC team. So, yeah, I still might make that argument.

It also means laying four touchdowns with Clemson doesn’t scare me. Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall won’t be able to move the chains against a Tigers defensive line that is NFL quality and ranks No. 2 in the nation in rushing yards allowed. And they won’t get any help from a pass game that ranks 120th and is facing the team with the third most sacks this season.

For Clemson, Trevor Lawrence is looking better every week and brings balance to offense that loves to pound the rock with sophomore running back Travis Etienne. The potential ACC offensive player of the year, Etienne has totaled 1,308 yards at a clip of 8 yards per carry and has 20 total touchdowns.

Pick: Clemson -27.5

Big Ten Championship – Northwestern vs Ohio State (-14.5, 61)

This might be the game that I’m having the most trouble with.

On one side we have Ohio State, coming off a massive 62-39 dismantling of rival Michigan to get here and likely need to put down another beatdown in this matchup to qualify for the CFP.

But on the other hand, we have Northwestern. These ‘Cats are actually scrappy underdog that went 6-0-1 ATS and 4-1-1 SU when getting points this season. Northwestern also has not been in a game all season decided by more than 14 points either way. So of course, the spread is 14.5.

The Buckeyes, led by quarterback Dwayne Haskins, have the nation’s second rated offense in terms of total and passing yards and are clearly the more talented team. But before their Big Blue beatdown, the Buckeyes almost lost at Maryland, needed at late comeback vs Nebraska and were blown out at Purdue. So, this team is definitely inconsistent, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

And you know who always has his team prepared? Pat Fitzgerald. While I expect Ohio State to win, Fitzgerald will have his ‘Cats primed for one more scrappy performance.

Pick: Northwestern +14.5

Saturday 12-1-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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