Saturday 12-1-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Smart

Dec 01 '18, 1:00 PM in 26m
NCAA-B | NC-Greensboro vs Kentucky
Play on: Kentucky -12 -110 at BMaker

UNCG is a quality team and will bring a 7-1 record into Rupp Arena on Saturday, its only loss coming on the road to LSU. They have the Wildcats attention, and the home team will be ready take them on here today.UK has looked lethargic at times this season but have made strides its last time out when the Wildcats held Monmouth to 44 points and 27.6-percent shooting, both season best totals. I look for the momentum of that effort to carry on into todays tilt.
The difference maker here today, will come under the glass, where the Wildcats are at plus-16.9, averaging 41 and allowing only 24.1 ranked No.1 in the nation.
Play on Kentucky to cover

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Sawyer

Dec 01 '18, 1:10 PM in 36m
NCAA-F | UL-Lafayette vs Appalachian State
Play on: UL-Lafayette +17 -103 at 5Dimes

Take the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers. UL-Lafayette (7-5) has won three straight games with their 31-28 upset win at UL-Monroe as a 1.5-point underdog. The Ragin’ Cajuns generated 453 yards of offense in the game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. UL-Lafayette has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road. Appalachian State (9-2) has won four straight games with their 21-10 win over Troy last week. But the Mountaineers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least three straight games. Appalachian State has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 home games after playing two conference opponents in their last two contests. Take UL-Lafayette plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Dec 01 '18, 1:10 PM in 36m
NCAA-F | UL-Lafayette vs Appalachian State
Play on: Appalachian State -16½ -118 at betonline

10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Appalachian State 16.5)
I think for a lot of people that handicap this game, are going to see how close the first game was between these two teams and be quick to jump on the Ragin’ Cajuns. I just think that first go around is a bit misleading.
You have to keep in mind that no one was picking Lafayette to win the West. In fact, just about everyone was picking Arkansas State or ULM. When these two teams met in the regular season it was a really tough spot for Appalachian State. They were coming off a a huge road win over Arkansas State and had a massive showdown at Georgia Southern on deck in a matter of just 5 days. I just don’t think they took the Ragin’ Cajuns all that seriously and they were up 17-points before Lafayette added a garbage TD in the final minutes to lose by 10.
This time around Appalachian State is going to be 100% locked in and I just think that there’s a big enough gap in talent that a focused and motivated Mountaineers team, especially at home, will have no problem winning here by at least 20 points.
Offensively these two teams are pretty similar, as both have made a living with their running game. The big difference is the two defenses. Appalachian State is giving up just 15.4 ppg and 278 ypg games (only 4.3 yards/play). Lafayette isn’t even close to that. The Ragin’ Cajuns come in allowing 34.0 ppg and 443 ypg (6.5 yards/play).
If you remember back to last year, these two teams played on Dec. 2nd with Appalachian State needing a win to secure at least a tie of the Sun Belt regular-season title and they annihilated Lafayette 63-14 on their home field as a mere 14-point favorite. You also can’t ignore the fact that the books had the Mountaineers as a 26-point favorite the first time around. I get that line was probably a few points high, but I think they have over-adjusted. Give me Appalachian State -16.5!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Dec 01 '18, 1:15 PM in 41m
NCAA-F | Texas vs Oklahoma
Play on: Texas +9½ -105 at Bovada

Dave’s Saturday Free Play:
1* on Texas +9.5
The Key: Betting against Tom Herman as an underdog has been a losing proposition. Herman is now 13-1 ATS as an underdog in 14 games in this spot as a head coach, and his teams have won outright 10 times. And now Texas is catching 9.5 points against an Oklahoma team they already beat 48-45 earlier this season on a neutral. Herman will have his guys motivated here to pull off another upset. And Oklahoma has been vulnerable as 3 of its last 4 wins have come by 5 points or less. The Sooners are very fortunate to be 11-1 this season because they have won every close game other than the Red River Rivalry. They may win this game as well, but it won’t be by double-digits. Take Texas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Josephs

Dec 01 '18, 3:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Harvard vs Siena
Play on: Siena +8½ -110 at sportsbook

Siena has lost four straight entering this one against Harvard. The Saints have flashed some competitiveness during that stretch and are getting a Harvard team that could be without leading scorer Chris Lewis. Siena has two good scorers with Jalen Pickett and Evan Fisher, but not a ton behind them. Harvard is 4-3 and still waiting for their two best players to even play their first game of the season. The Crimson have lost to Northeastern, Rhode Island and San Francisco. The team's wins were against MIT, UMass, St. Mary's and Holy Cross. I think they are laying a little bit too much in this one as overcoming Lewis' injury will be tough.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jesse Schule

Dec 01 '18, 3:30 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Memphis vs Central Florida
Play on: Central Florida -170 at 5Dimes

This is a Free #NCAAF play on the UCF Knights. The self proclaimed "national champs" are gunning for a second consecutive perfect season, but they have to face rivals Memphis without their star quarterback McKenzie Milton. When you consider that the Knights had to rally from behind to beat the Tigers by a single point with Milton under center earlier this year, you might think that UCF is in trouble. Keep in mind that game was at Memphis, and this game will be played in Orlando. Milton was nowhere near at 100 percent in that game either, he was unable to run the ball and he completed just 17 of 29 passes for 296 yards and a TD. I don't think it's asking much of Darriel Mack Jr. to put up similar numbers here in the AAC Championship Game. He already picked up a solid 37-10 road win over ECU earlier this year while filling in for an injured Milton. He ran for 120 yards and a TD in that game. The Knights are 10-0 straight up versus Memphis since 2007, and a perfect 5-0 ATS at home during that span. I'll take the home favorite to get the "W". Take UCF. GL, Jesse Schule

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams

Dec 01 '18, 4:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Georgia vs Alabama
Play on: Georgia +13 -110 at Bovada

1* on Georgia +13 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker

Dec 01 '18, 4:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Georgia vs Alabama
Play on: Alabama -12½ -106 at YouWager

Free Pick on Alabama

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Wilson

Dec 01 '18, 4:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-B | George Washington vs Princeton
Play on: George Washington +7½ -110 at 5Dimes

Free Play on George Washington +7½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Freddy Wills

Dec 01 '18, 4:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Georgia vs Alabama
Play on: Alabama -12 -110 at betonline

Alabama -12.5 2.2% Free Play
I looked hard to find reasons to take the dog here, but just couldn't find them. Alabama is 6th against the run, and probably better than that when you factor in how many games their defense was just not trying because their offense put up 40+ points in the first half. When Tua came into the game last year it was just a different game as Alabama went on a 26-10 run on their way to a come back victory. This year's Georgia is just as good on offense if not better, but they lack some of the senior laden leadership, and their defense is not nearly as good ranking 46th vs. the run, and 62nd in defensive success rating. Alabama is #1 in offense and defensive success rate and a ridiculous 27.2 % success rate differential. Compare that with Georgia who is at 11.4%. To impact this game Georgia needs to get after Tua, and we have seen him make mistakes, but Georgia ranks 118th in sack % this year against teams that don't protect the QB well, and Alabama's offensive line has been a rock. This is a high total, and I expect a cover by Alabama winning by 20+ points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Janus

Dec 01 '18, 5:30 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Temple vs St. Joe's
Play on: St. Joe's -3½ -110 at YouWager

1* Free Sharp Play on St. Joe's -3½ -110
My money is on the Hawks to cover against the Owls in Saturday's battle of the birds on the college hardwood. Temple comes in at 6-1, while St Joseph's is just 4-3, but the Hawks have played the tougher schedule to this point. All 3 of St. Joseph's losses have come on the road, as they are a perfect 3-0 at home, where they are averaging 82 ppg and only giving up 67.3 ppg. Temple just pulled off a big upset win at Missouri and are getting way too much respect here because of it. Bet the Hawks -3.5!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joseph D'Amico

Dec 01 '18, 7:00 PM in 6h
NCAA-B | Davidson vs NC-Wilmington
Play on: Davidson -7½ -105 at BMaker

I got you paid in college hoops LN with an EZ WINNER on Pitt. Today, I do it again as I have my NCAAB POWERHOUSE PLAY which are 1-0 TY and 84% the L4 years and my NCAAB LAS VEGAS STRIP MOVE winner which is 2-0 TY and on a 47-16 run. Get both and get paid.
Saturday's FREE NCAAB WINNER: Davidson.
Game 583.
4:00 pm pst.
Davidson has taken the L4 meetings in this series, by an average of 17.2 PPG. The Wildcats possess a stifling defense a deep, talented, overall team. NC-Wilmington tends to fold when facing superior foes. Davidson is 5-2 ATS the L7 vs. the CAA and 18-8-1 ATS the L27 overall. NC-Wilmington is 1-4 ATS the L5 vs. the A-10 and 3-12 ATS the L15 vs. non-conference opponents. Take the Wildcats. Thank you.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bird Bouchard

Dec 01 '18, 7:05 PM in 6h
NHL | Blue Jackets vs Islanders
Play on: Blue Jackets -125 at Bovada

Both teams are playing exceptional hockey lately and are in the top 10 in the power rankings. Despite being on the road, the Blue Jackets are in the better position to win this game.They play much better in the neutral zone and they're working the powerplay to their advantage. Columbus is great on the road and they'll pick up another big road win here.
Pick Rating: ****

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Dec 01 '18, 8:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Clemson vs Pittsburgh
Play on: Pittsburgh +28 -110 at Bovada

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Pittsburgh +28
The Clemson Tigers don’t need style points this week. They simply need to win and get out of town and get into the four-team playoff. They won’t be looking to impress anyone Saturday when they take on the Pitt Panthers. Simply a victory would get them into the four-team playoff. That’s why they shouldn’t be laying four touchdowns here.
These Clemson lines are really starting to get out of hand. They failed to cover last week as 25.5-point favorites against South Carolina, and they also failed to cover the week before as 29.5-point favorites over Duke. Heck, South Carolina put up 35 points and 600 total yards on them last week. Pitt can hang within 28 points.
I think the betting public wants nothing to do with Pitt after its 3-24 loss to Miami last week. But that was a clear look-ahead spot for the Panthers as they had already clinched the ACC Coastal Division title and really had nothing to play for. They were simply saving up for Clemson.
More important is how Pitt played in previous weeks when they were motivated leading up to that Miami game. The Panthers went 5-1 SU and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their previous six games. Their only loss was a 14-19 loss at Notre Dame as 21-point dogs. That’s a 12-0 Notre Dame team that has clinched a spot in the four-team playoff. They also pulled outright upsets over Syracuse, Duke and Virginia, while also beating VA Tech by 30 and Wake Forest by 21 as favorites.
Remember a few years ago when Pitt was in a similar situation against Clemson. The Panthers actually upset the Tigers 43-42 as 21.5-point underdogs. Now, I’m not saying they’re going to pull the upset again, but they don’t have to for us to cash a winning ticket. They just need to stay within four touchdowns, which they are clearly capable of.
Plays against any team (Clemson) - after gaining 575 or more total yards in their previous game against an opponent that gained 3.25 or fewer yards per play in their previous game are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Dabo Swinney is 3-12 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points as the coach of Clemson. The Panthers are 35-17-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a loss. Bet Pittsburgh Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doug Upstone

Dec 01 '18, 8:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Clemson vs Pittsburgh
Play on: UNDER 53 -110

On Saturday night in the ACC, Play Under on neutral field teams like Pittsburgh when the total is between 49.5 and 56, having won three out of their last four games, against an opponent having won eight or more out of their last 10 games. In the last 25 years, this system is 32-7 UNDER at an 82.1 percent clip.