Monday 12-3-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Tech Trends - Week 13
Bruce Marshall

Monday, Dec. 3

WASHINGTON at PHILADELPHIA (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Birds only 3-8 vs. spread in 2018, now 3-10-1 vs. line in reg season since late 2017. Also 1-6-1 vs. spread last 7 at Linc (no covers last five this season). Jay Gruden had covered six straight vs. Eagles prior to a year ago. Eagles “under” 5-1 at Linc TY, Skins “under” 10-5 last 15 since late 2017. Though 4 of last 5 “over” in series.
Tech Edge: Redskins, based on recent trends.

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Public action on Saints' odds might lead sharps to Cowboys in NFL Week 13
Patrick Everson

Week 13 of the NFL season kicks off with a big game in the Big D. We check in on the opening line and early action for that contest and three others, with insights from Derek Wilkinson, supervisor at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+6.5)

Defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia is having a rough follow-up year, but is still quite alive in the middling NFC East heading into the Week 13 Monday nighter. The Eagles (5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS) rallied from a 19-3 first-half deficit to beat the New York Giants 25-22 home win giving 4.5 points.

Washington was looking good after a 4-1 SU and ATS run put it atop the division, but Jay Gruden’s squad followed with two losses. On Thanksgiving Day at Dallas, the Redskins (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) fell 31-23 as seven-point road underdogs.

“We opened this at a little less than a touchdown, but went to Eagles -7 (even) shortly after, because that’s where the market settled. We don’t want to be the only book off of a key number like seven,” Wilkinson said. “However, I think that line is a little too high. The Redskins lost to really hot Dallas and Houston teams, and they’re playing a divisional rival who barely beat the Giants.

“I think the wiseguys are going to be all over Washington plus the points.”

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MNF - Redskins at Eagles
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

A strong 6-3 start for the Redskins (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) is starting to fade away following back-to-back defeats to the Texans and Cowboys. Obviously the biggest loss in this stretch is the one to quarterback Alex Smith, who suffered a gruesome season-ending leg injury in the Week 11 setback to Houston. Washington turned to longtime backup Colt McCoy against Dallas on Thanksgiving, but the Redskins fell short, 31-23 as seven-point underdogs.

McCoy and the Redskins grabbed a 13-10 lead over the Cowboys in the third quarter on a 10-yard touchdown strike to Trey Quinn, but Dallas ran off 21 unanswered points to take control. Washington scored 10 late points, but finished short of a cover as it failed to cash for the second time in five road contests. McCoy finished with 268 yards passing and two touchdowns, but was also intercepted three times by the Dallas defense.

The Eagles (5-6 SU, 3-8 ATS) still have a long way to go prior to getting back in the playoff hunt in the NFC. However, Philadelphia helped itself by digging out of a 19-3 hole to shock the Giants last Sunday, 25-22 to end a two-game skid. The Eagles failed to cover as 4 ½-point favorites, but Jake Elliott’s 43-yard field goal with 22 seconds remaining gave Philadelphia the season sweep of New York and even its home mark at 3-3.

Carson Wentz bounced back from a three-interception performance at New Orleans to throw for 236 yards and a touchdown against the Giants. Rookie running back Josh Adams reached the end zone for the second straight week, while putting up a career-high 84 yards on 22 carries for Philadelphia. In spite of the win, the Eagles dropped to 0-5 ATS in the past five games at Lincoln Financial Field.

HOME WOES

Elaborating on the 0-5 ATS home mark the last five games for the defending champions, all five ATS losses have come in the favorite role. The last cover for Philadelphia at Lincoln Financial Field came in the season opener against Atlanta, as the Eagles are far away from the 7-3 ATS home mark from last season. Since last December, the Eagles have put together a 3-10 ATS ledger in their last 13 opportunities when laying points.

RED ALERT IN THE DIVISION

The Redskins are playing their final road game against an NFC East opponent this season. Washington won at New York in Week 8 by seven, while losing at Dallas last Thursday by eight. Jay Gruden’s team has lost four of their last five away contests against divisional foes since the start of last season, while the OVER has hit in three instances.

SERIES HISTORY

Washington owned Philadelphia from 2014 through 2016 by winning five consecutive matchups. However, the Eagles rebounded last season by sweeping the Redskins with both victories coming by double-digits. Philadelphia held off Washington in the season opener, 30-17, capped off by a fumble return for a score by Fletcher Cox. The Eagles took care of the Redskins at Lincoln Financial Field two months later, 34-24, highlighted by four touchdown passes by Wentz.

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

The Redskins’ kryptonite is playing on Mondays as they own a dreadful 1-9 SU/ATS mark since 2013, including a 1-7 SU/ATS ledger under Gruden. New Orleans routed Washington in Week 5 at the Superdome, 43-19, while the Redskins have lost their last three road Monday night games since 2016. Coincidentally, the only victory in this span came with McCoy at quarterback against an NFC East opponent on the road, coming in 2014 at Dallas, 20-17 as nine-point underdogs.

The Eagles are making their first appearance on Monday night this season, as Philadelphia won both Monday night affairs in 2017. One of those wins came over the Redskins in the 10-point triumph, as Philadelphia owns a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS record against Washington on Mondays since 2009.

GAME PROPS – According to Westgate Superbook

Total Gross Passing Yards – Colt McCoy
OVER 237 ½ (-110)
UNDER 237 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Colt McCoy
OVER 1 ½ (+150)
UNDER 1 ½ (-150)

Total Rushing Yards – Adrian Peterson
OVER 67 ½ (-110)
UNDER 67 ½ (-110)

Total Completions – Carson Wentz
OVER 23 ½ (-110)
UNDER 23 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Carson Wentz
OVER 2 (EVEN)
UNDER 2 (-120)

Total Rushing Yards – Josh Adams
OVER 60 ½ (-110)
UNDER 60 ½ (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT

The Eagles opened as 6 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook, but that number has dropped to six at most books. The total opened at 44 ½ as that number has been nudged up to 45 at many outfits. Philadelphia has finished UNDER the total in seven of 11 games (5-1 at home), while Washington is on a 3-1 to the OVER the last four weeks.

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Info Plays

Dec 03 '18, 7:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | Niagara vs Pittsburgh
Play on: Pittsburgh -14½ -108 at YouWager

1* Free Play on Pittsburgh -14½ -108

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Jack Jones

Dec 03 '18, 7:05 PM in 1h
NBA | Thunder vs Pistons
Play on: Pistons +2 -103 at 5Dimes

Jack’s Free Pick Monday: Detroit Pistons +2
The Detroit Pistons are playing too well right now to be home underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Dwane Casey is proving his meddle as one of the best regular season coaches in the NBA and he’s getting the most out of this Detroit team in his first season.
The Pistons have gone 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. That includes a road win over the Toronto Raptors, as well as home wins over the Rockets and Warriors outright as underdogs during this stretch. So they have beaten some of the best teams in the NBA along the way.
The Thunder are getting too much respect for their recent 7-2 SU & 6-3 ATS surge. Their only impressive win during this stretch was against the Warriors, but they were favored in that game due to injuries to Golden State. The other six wins have come against the Suns (twice), Knicks, Hornets, Cavs and Hawks.
The Pistons have one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the NBA as well. They are 9-3 SU at home this season, and 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Oklahoma City is 7-20 ATS in its last 27 road games off a cover as a double-digit favorite. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet the Pistons Monday.

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Brandon Lee

Dec 03 '18, 7:05 PM in 1h
NBA | Thunder vs Pistons
Play on: Pistons +2 -103 at 5Dimes

10* FREE NBA PICK (Pistons +2)
I'll take my chances here with the red-hot Pistons as a home dog against the Thunder. Detroit comes in having won 5 straight and 9 of their last 11 overall they are 9-2 ATS during this run and with a win here can complete a perfect 6-0 home stand, which has already included wins over the Rockets and Warriors. OKC has been playing well after a slow start to the season, but are just 5-4 on the road compared to 9-3 at home. Last time out the Thunder won 124-109 at Atlanta, covering as a 13-point favorite. OKC is a mere 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games off a cover as a double-digit favorite. Wrong team is favored in this one. Give me the Pistons +2!

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Bobby Conn

Dec 03 '18, 7:35 PM in 2h
NBA | Nuggets vs Raptors
Play on: Raptors -6½ -110 at YouWager

1* Free Play on Raptors -6½ -110

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Jimmy Boyd

Dec 03 '18, 7:35 PM in 2h
NBA | Cavs vs Nets
Play on: Cavs +6½ -110 at BMaker

1* Free Pick on Cavs +6.5
I like the value here with Cleveland in Monday's battle of two Eastern Conference teams that rare struggling to win games. The Cavs own the worst record in the East at 4-18. The Nets aren't too far ahead at 8-16, but also come in having lost 6 straight and are just 2-10 in their last 12.
Brooklyn has really hit a wall after losing leading scorer Caris LeVert and last time out they got annihilated 102-88 by a Wizards team that is currently just 9-14. Nets have also lost 6 straight at home. Simply put, this team shouldn't be giving this many points to any team in the league right now.
History is on our side as well. Brooklyn is a mere 14-40 (26%) ATS in home games when they come in having failed to cover 3 of their last 4. Cavs are 8-2 ATS last 10 games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and a perfect 4-0 in this spot when the game is on the road. Take Cleveland!

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John Martin

Dec 03 '18, 7:35 PM in 2h
NBA | Warriors vs Hawks
Play on: Warriors -10 -109 at 5Dimes

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Golden State Warriors -10
The Golden State Warriors have lost six of their last nine games coming in. But they finally have 3 of their Big 4 healthy now with Stephen Curry returning tot he lineup on Saturday. And he should be much sharper in his second game back from injury after a loss to the Pistons. The Warriors shouldn’t have any problem beating the Hawks by double-digits tonight. This is an Atlanta team that is just 5-18 on the season and losing by 10.7 PPG. The Hawks are 4-20 ATS in home games after failing to cover five or six of their last seven ATS over the last three seasons. The Warriors are 28-11 ATS in their last 39 road games vs. horrible teams who are outscored by 9-plus PPG on the season. The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. Give me the Warriors.

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Hunter Price

Dec 03 '18, 7:35 PM in 2h
NBA | Cavs vs Nets
Play on: Cavs +6 -110 at YouWager

1* Free Pick on Cavs +6 -110

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Sal Michaels

Dec 03 '18, 8:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | North Dakota State vs Iowa State
Play on: Iowa State -21½ -110 at sportsbook

Free Play on Iowa State -21½ -110

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Cole Faxon

Dec 03 '18, 8:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | North Dakota State vs Iowa State
Play on: Iowa State -20½ -107 at 5Dimes

FREE PLAY on Iowa State -20½ -107

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Dustin Hawkins

Dec 03 '18, 8:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Troy State vs Florida State
Play on: Troy State +20 -110 at Bovada

Free Play on Troy State +20 -110

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Mike Williams

Dec 03 '18, 8:05 PM in 2h
NBA | Clippers vs Pelicans
Play on: Clippers +2 -110 at YouWager

1* on Clippers +2 -110

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Kenny Walker

Dec 03 '18, 8:05 PM in 2h
NBA | Clippers vs Pelicans
Play on: Clippers +2½ -110 at BMaker

Free Pick on Clippers