Thursday 12-6-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 14


Thursday, December 6

Jacksonville @ Tennessee

Game 101-102
December 6, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
129.512
Tennessee
128.971
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 1
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 5
37 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+5); Over

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2018-19 Basic NFL Betting Stats thru Week 13:

Home Teams: 93-92-7 ATS
Favorites: 88-97-7 ATS
Road Favorites: 29-34-1 ATS
Home Favorites: 59-63-6 ATS

Over/Under: 93-98

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NFL Top OVER Teams (based on Over %)

t1. Bears 8-4
t1. Bengals 8-4
t1. Bucs 8-4
4. Chiefs 7-4-1
t5. Panthers 7-5
t5. Chargers 7-5
t5. Jets 7-5
t6. Steelers 7-5
t5. 49ers 7-5

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NFL's Top UNDER Teams (based on Under %):

1. Broncos 8-3-1
t2. Pats 8-4
t2. Eagles 8-4
t4. 11 Teams Tied at 7-5 Cardinals, Ravens, Bills, Cowboys, Texans, Panthers, Dolphins, Vikings, Saints, Titans, Redskins

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NFL's Best ATS Teams (based on cover %):

1. Saints 9-3
2. Chiefs 8-3-1
t3. Pats 8-4
t3. Bears 8-4
5. Seahawks 7-3-2
t6. Chargers 7-5
t6. Cowboys 7-5
t6. Dolphins 7-5
t6. Redskins 7-5
t6. Browns 7-5



NFL's Worst ATS Teams (based on cover %):

t31. 49ers 3-9
t31. Falcons 3-9
t28. Raiders 4-8
t28. Jets 4-8
t28. Eagles 4-8
27. Packers 4-7-1
26. Jaguars 4-6-2
t23. Bills 5-7
t23. Bengals 5-7
t23. Panthers 5-7

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Tech Trends - Week 14
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Dec. 6

JACKSONVILLE at TENNESSEE (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Jags on 1-7 SU, 1-5-2 spread skid, 0-4-1 vs. line last five away. Titans on 8-2-2 run vs. line at home, and have won and covered last three vs. Jax.
Tech Edge: Titans, based on team trends.

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TNF - Jaguars at Titans
Tony Mejia

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-4.5, 37.5), 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN

Jacksonville’s defense has the potential to make Blake Bortles look awful by helping pull off a second straight divisional upset as their demoted former starter again watches from the sideline. Cody Kessler benefited as the team’s strongest unit did the heavy lifting in a 6-0 win over the Colts that replaced the Titans-Jags Week 3 meeting as the lowest-scoring game of the season.

Andrew Luck underwent an on-field root canal in dealing with Jacksonville’s pressure up front and the excellence of a rejuvenated defensive backfield, throwing for 248 yards and getting intercepted once in being shutout.

With corner A.J. Bouye back to help a healthier Jalen Ramsey and impressive D.J. Hayden, the Jaguars again boast one of the league’s strongest defensive backfields. Up front, they’ll have to replace starting nose tackle Abry Jones off the unit that blanked the Colts but are still well-equipped to make life difficult for Tennessee. For more on who is in and out, read the injury report below.

Since the best the Jaguars can finish is 8-8, all success they have from this point on won’t affect their playoff chances but will certainly have a toll on the postseason picture. After snapping their seven-game losing streak by ending Indy’s five-game unbeaten run, the Jags now take aim at playing spoiler against Tennessee, which is one of four teams on the outside looking in of the AFC’s top-six, trailing the Ravens by a game.

Jacksonville will now try and snap a winless run of four games in Nashville and a 2-12 run against AFC South Division foes.

The Titans got back to .500 against the Jets on Sunday, but only barely. Despite facing veteran backup QB Josh McCown and a banged-up New York squad that hadn’t won since mid-October, Tennessee needed Marcus Mariota to find Corey Davis with 36 seconds left to cap a comeback from a 22-13 fourth-quarter deficit.

Mariota has shown a knack for saving his best for last but contributed greatly to digging last week’s hole by throwing a pick-six. He led the Titans in rushing and threw for 286 yards to wrap up his 12th career game-winning drive, which does inspire confidence since style points won’t matter against Jacksonville. The Titans have won five of six over the Jags (see series history below) and have found ways to overcome Bortles and a defense that has been among the NFL’s best in low-scoring games and shootouts no matter who the coaches have been, so Doug Marrone will have his work cut out for him on the road with a team that has won only one true road game all season, beating the Giants 20-15 in Week 1.

The Titans are 4-1 in Nashville and own conquests of the Texans, Eagles and Patriots, so they perform in front of the paying customers. They’ll have to deal with nemesis Leonard Fournette, who returns from a one-game suspension and may be the healthiest he’s been all season since he’s been bothered by injuries most of the way.

Being unable to count on him early forced Jacksonville to trade for Carlos Hyde, who is also available alongside T.J. Yeldon. Kessler comes into this one averaging 153 passing yards in his two appearances, so count on the run game being the staple of the Jags’ attack. His longest completion spans 23 yards, so it’s likely you’ll see a run defense that ranks 19th against the ground game and has been the weak link in that unit tested exhaustively.

Count on the Titans challenging Kessler to make plays in the red zone since first-year head coach Mike Vrabel and defensive coordinator Dean Pees have been especially stingy inside the 20-yard line, holding opponents to the lowest touchdown rate in the NFL (44.1 percent).

Fournette has run for 95 yards in each of his last two games, finding the end zone three times in losses to the Steelers and Bills before his one-game suspension. He wasn’t in the lineup in Week 3 and ran for just 109 yards on 33 carries in last season’s losses, scoring once. Getting him going in addition to another strong defensive outing is the ideal formula for the Jags to pull this offense.

Tennessee’s current schedule isn’t daunting, so it has an opportunity to run the table if it can keep the ball rolling by picking up where it left off in Sunday’s fourth quarter. The Titans’ lone road remaining game will be Dec. 16 vs. the Giants and their final contests will come at home against the Redskins and Colts, who each enter Week 14 at 6-6 on the heels of brutal offensive showings.

That would seem to play right into Tennessee’s wheelhouse, but a running game that was non-existent last week must emerge and Mariota has to stay healthy. Per Titans Online expert Jim Wyatt, the former No. 2 pick has gone 128-for-174, throwing for 1,656 yards, eight TDs and five interceptions in his six previous primetime games, so we’ll see if he’s up to this latest challenge. The offensive line in front of him was reshuffled on the run against the Jets as Corey Levin came into play center, so we’ll see if that change remains in place and guard Quinton Spain in relegated to a backup role.

Jacksonville also made changes in addition to the high-profile one where Bortles was left stuck holding a clipboard, starting Patrick Omameh at guard up front notorious former Giants flop Ereck Flowers started at tackle for Josh Walker. Ronnie Harrison started at safety ahead of Barry Church while Marcell Dareus moved inside, so there will again likely be some in-game variables.

As far as the elements go, snow fell in Nashville on Wednesday but we should see clear conditions and temperatures in the high 30s for this Thursday night clash.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Season win total: 9 (Over -130, Under +110)
Odds to win AFC South: OFF to OFF
Odds to win AFC: 2000/1 to 900/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 5000/1 to 2000/1

Tennessee Titans
Season win total: 8 (Over -110, Under -110)
Odds to win AFC South: 25/1 to OFF
Odds to win AFC: 90/1 to 90/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 200/1 to 200/1

LINE MOVEMENT

Those who faded the Jaguars to open the season are already planning what to do with their winnings. Jacksonville can no longer reach its projected season win total and will pay out +140 at Westgate by not making the postseason. The Titans are still alive to go over on wins and reach the playoffs at +145, so those who went 'no' on them playing on in January at -170 are hoping for help from the Jags here since a Tennessee loss and Houston weekend win would give the Texans the AFC South.

When the season began, Jacksonville was a 7/4 favorite to win the division, so its flop is very real. The Texans were 2/1, Tennessee was 7/2 and the Colts brought up the rear in terms of expectations at 4/1. The Texans moved from 1/10 entering Week 13 to that future coming off the board altogether as a foregone conclusion. The Jags do still have life, but placing anything on them from a futures standpoint is flushing cash down the toilet. The Titans' odds didn't budge after they survived the Jets.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Titans were a 6.5-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced last week so the Jags' impressive shutout of the Colts altered things. Westgate opened at -5 but quickly came down to 4.5, which is where most shops opened and where it currently is available in many places. Tennessee -4 was available most of the week, but there is now a lot of -5 out there.

Tennessee is in the -225/-230 range on the money line. If you like the road 'dog outright, a payout on the Jags win will get you +190 to +200 depending on where you wager.

INJURY CONCERNS

Jacksonville's biggest absence with Fournette available again is the aforementioned Jones, who hasn't practiced due to a shin injury and will force more reshuffling from the Jags on the defensive front. DE Calais Campbell did overcome an ankle injury and has been cleared, while Ramsey (knee) is also off the injury repot. Jacksonville backup corners Tre Herndon and Quenton Meeks will join LB Lerentee McCray in the mix, so the Jags have plenty of ammo on that side of the ball.

The Titans will be without safety Dane Cruikshank and RB David Flueleen due to knee injuries but should be fine without both. Key safeties Kenny Vaccaro and Kevin Byard, DT Jaurrell Casey, corners Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler and WR Tajae Sharpe are all good to go. Pass-rusher Derrick Morgan is listed as questionable.

TOTAL TALK

The ‘over/under’ for this matchup opened at 38 and most betting shops are holding a number of 37 ½ as of Thursday morning. Weekly “Total Talk” writer Chris David of VegasInsider.com offered up his thoughts on this matchup:

It’s rare to see totals close in the thirties in the NFL these days and this will be the ninth total that will be in this neighborhood this season and the ‘over’ has gone 5-3 in the first eight totals that closed below 40.

One of those ‘under’ winners came between this pair as the Titans defeated the Jaguars 9-6 on Sept. 23 and the low side (39 ½) was never in doubt. This was a game dominated by the defensive units as neither offense could move the football and the pair combined for 465 total yards.

Normally I would use a vice versa handicap and lean to the high side based off the low-scoring result in the first meeting but it’s a tough argument to make. Especially with Cody Kessler under center for Jacksonville. While he wasn’t horrible last week against the Colts, expecting him to move the chains or make big plays seems like a long shot against a Titans scoring defense (18.6 PPG) that has been solid at home.

Even though Tennessee and Jacksonville both enter this game with 7-5 ‘under’ records, two of the last three meetings in Nashville have gone ‘over’ the number. One of those outcomes occurred in a Thursday contest (2016) as Tennessee ran past Jacksonville 36-22 and the ‘over’ (43 ½) connected. Including that outcome, the Titans have watched the ‘over’ cash in their last five primetime games and that includes two results this season (both on MNF).

Road underdogs haven’t played well in the midweek matchup this season but I’m expecting a competitive game. If my lean is right that the Jaguars can hang around, then it has to be a low-scoring affair. Instead of leaning to the game total, I believe the better play is the Tennessee team total under (21 ½) on Thursday.

RECENT MEETINGS (Tennessee 5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS last 8; OVER 4-2)

9/23/18 Tennessee 9-6 at Jacksonville (TEN +10, 39)
12/31/17 Tennessee 15-10 vs. Jacksonville (TEN -2.5, 40)
9/17/17 Tennessee 37-16 at Jacksonville (TEN -1, 42)
12/24/16 Jacksonville 38-17 vs. Tennessee (JAX +4, 44)
10/27/16 Tennessee 36-22 vs. Jacksonville (TEN -3, 43.5)
12/6/15 Tennessee 42-39 vs. Jacksonville (TEN -2.5, 43.5)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

Westgate Vegas opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 15 currently has the Titans listed as an 1.5-point road favorite at the Giants. The Jaguars will be back home in another spoiler role as they host the Mark Sanchez-led 'Skins and are an early 6.5-point favorite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, December 6


New York @ Boston

Game 701-702
December 6, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New York
114.056
Boston
123.709
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 9 1/2
220
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 13
217 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New York
(+13); Over

Phoenix @ Portland

Game 703-704
December 6, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Phoenix
108.457
Portland
113.333
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
by 5
225
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Portland
by 14
216
Dunkel Pick:
Phoenix
(+14); Over

Houston @ Utah

Game 705-706
December 6, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
114.685
Utah
123.471
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 9
217
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 2
216
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(-2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, December 6

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NEW YORK (8 - 17) at BOSTON (13 - 10) - 12/6/2018, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 70-50 ATS (+15.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 35-22 ATS (+10.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 28-10 ATS (+17.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 45-31 ATS (+10.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 6-4 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 7-3 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
6 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHOENIX (4 - 20) at PORTLAND (13 - 11) - 12/6/2018, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 45-59 ATS (-19.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 25-37 ATS (-15.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 19-32 ATS (-16.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHOENIX is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
PHOENIX is 178-139 ATS (+25.1 Units) after allowing 115 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 5-3 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 7-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (11 - 12) at UTAH (12 - 13) - 12/6/2018, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 107-68 ATS (+32.2 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite since 1996.
HOUSTON is 91-63 ATS (+21.7 Units) in road games after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 8-5 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 9-4 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA


Thursday, December 6

New York lost three of its last four games; they’re 3-5 vs spread in their last eight road games. Four of their last six games stayed under the total. Celtics won four of their last five games; they’re 4-2 vs spread in last six home games. Boston’s last four games went over. Knicks lost seven of last ten games with Boston; they’re 2-3 vs spread in their last five visits to Beantown. Five of last seven games stayed under the total.

Phoenix lost its last six games (0-6 vs spread); they’re 3-9 vs spread on road this season. Four of their last five games stayed under. Trailblazers lost six of their last seven games; they’re 1-10 vs spread in their last 11 games, 0-3 in last three home tilts. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games. Portland won its last seven games with Phoenix but the Suns covered last three; Phoenix is 4-1 vs spread in its last five visits to Oregon. Last four series games played here went over the total.

Houston lost five of its last seven games; they’re 2-6 vs spread in last eight road games. Eight of their last nine games went over the total. Utah won four of its last six games; they’re 4-5 vs spread at home this year. Six of their last nine games went over. Jazz lost eight of their last ten games with Houston; under is 5-2 in last seven series games. Rockets covered their last four visits to Salt Lake City.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Thursday, December 6

Trend Report

New York Knicks
New York is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
New York is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 6 games
New York is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
New York is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New York's last 8 games on the road
New York is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 7 games when playing Boston
New York is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 7 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston Celtics
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games
Boston is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games at home
Boston is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games at home
Boston is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing New York
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games when playing New York
Boston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against New York
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 7 games when playing at home against New York

Phoenix Suns
Phoenix is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Phoenix is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games
Phoenix is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Phoenix is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Phoenix is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Portland
Phoenix is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Portland
Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
Phoenix is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Portland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Portland's last 9 games
Portland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Portland's last 8 games at home
Portland is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Phoenix
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix
Portland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix

Houston Rockets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games when playing Utah
Houston is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Houston is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 9 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Utah
Houston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Utah
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Houston's last 15 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah Jazz
Utah is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Utah is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 6 games
Utah is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Utah is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 5 games at home
Utah is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Houston
Utah is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 7 games when playing Houston
Utah is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
Utah is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Utah's last 15 games when playing at home against Houston

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Inside the Paint - Thursday
Chris David

If you bet the favorites in the NBA last night, then accept our congratulations as the ‘chalk’ went 10-0 straight up and 8-1-1 against the spread. The ‘over’ went 7-3 and that combination usually buries the folks behind the counter.

Tonight’s card isn’t easy but we’re focusing on a quality matchup between Houston and Utah, who met in the second round of last year’s Western Conference playoffs.

Houston (11-12 SU, 9-14 ATS) at Utah (12-13 SU, 12-13 ATS)

With a quarter of the season in the books, I don’t think many pundits would’ve expected both Houston and Utah to sit below .500 but that’s the case when the pair meet from Salt Lake City on Thursday. Injuries have played a toll on both teams and VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia believes both clubs will get things together before the season really picks up in 2019.

He explained, “Donovan Mitchell hasn’t been healthy for most of the season and has had so many off nights that you might think he’s got a touch of Markelle Fultz’s Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. He opened December by shooting 1-for-7 from beyond the arc in a 102-100 loss to the Heat in which he missed 16 of 24 shots. Last season’s Rookie of the Year runner-up has had games where he’s gone 1-for-11 and 0-for-7 from 3-point range, so bouncing back to shoot 4-for-6 in Wednesday’s blowout win over the Spurs is a great sign for the Jazz, who have to be hoping this early-season slump comes to an end here shortly. Mitchell scored a season-best 38 points, hitting 14-for-25 shots in 100-89 win on Oct. 24 over Houston.”

“That outburst is a big deal because Mitchell only won one of nine games against Houston as a rookie, largely struggling as the Rockets swept the regular-season series before winning the Western Conference semifinal series 4-1. Getting their shooting guard going to ensure Chris Paul and James Harden have to work on the defensive end will determine whether the Jazz will hold serve at home and it bodes well that he’s done his best work thus far. Mitchell is shooting 35 percent from 3-point range in Salt Lake City as opposed to 29 percent on the road, so keep that in mind if you’re considering riding the Rockets or the under,” Mejia added.

The Rockets were listed as one-point underdogs in the October meeting Paul was suspended for that game due to his run-in with Rondo and the Lakers. For the rematch, Utah opened as a two-point home favorite and considering it was catching 4 ½ and six points in last year’s playoffs, it shows you the respect given to the Jazz from the oddsmakers or the lack of respect for the Rockets.

As Mejia mentioned, Houston got the better of Utah last year and that included a perfect 4-0 record both SU and ATS from Vivint Smart Home Arena. While that mark is impressive, the Rockets limp into this matchup with a dreadful road record (6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS) and that includes a 1-4 run heading into this game. On Monday, Houston dropped a 103-91 decision at Minnesota and it was only able to muster up nine points in the fourth quarter.

Backing Utah at home has been a great investment (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS) but it is coming off 139-105 win over San Antonio on Tuesday as an eight-point ‘chalk’ while drilling 20-of-33 (61%) bombs from 3-point land. That victory improved the Jazz to 5-1 versus teams below .500 and while Houston is still considered a contender, it’s currently a losing club as noted above.

The total on this game opened 218 and dropped quickly to 216 ½ and I was surprised by the move. Utah has been a great ‘over’ team at home (8-1) and Houston has started to regain its form as an ‘over’ club too. Despite the scoring drought in the final 12 minutes against the T-Wolves on Monday, Houston was averaging 121.6 points per game in its previous eight games and that led to an 8-0 ‘over’ run.

After this game, the Rockets head to Dallas on Friday while the Jazz get a quick rematch at San Antonio on Sunday.

There are two other games on tap for Thursday and, based on the opening numbers, are expecting a pair of blowouts.

New York at Boston (-12 ½, Total 218 ½)

Quick revenge game for the Celtics, who lost to the Knicks 117-109 on Nov. 21 as 14 ½-point home favorites. Since that setback, Boston has won and covered four of its last five and the offense is finally coming together. The unit is averaging 117.6 PPG during this stretch and that’s helped the ‘over’ go 4-1. Despite owning a lowing record (8-17), the Knicks have returned profits for bettors (14-10-1 ATS) this season. The issue for New York is its defense (114.4 PPG) and if you’re taking the points, then you better hope they get into the 110-120 range offensively. Backing Boston as a home favorite (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) hasn’t been a smart decision but they have covered in five of their six wins. As a double-digit favorite this season, the Celtics have gone 2-2 both SU and ATS. Including the aforementioned upset at TD Garden a couple weeks ago, the Knicks are 1-5 SU and 2-3-1 ATS as double-digit underdogs. Total bettors should note that the ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in those games and we’ve seen the number for the rematch open a few points higher (218 ½ from 215 ½).

Phoenix at Portland (-14, Total 215)

I try not to back an underdog with the points unless I believe they can win the game outright and right now, I don’t see how you can justify taking Phoenix in this spot especially with both Devin Booker (hamstring) and TJ Warren (ankle) on the sidelines for the Suns. Portland could be missing CJ McCollum (ankle) as well tonight and making a case for the Trail Blazers is next to impossible. The club has dropped eight straight games ATS and they’re 2-6 straight up during this span. Portland has better home numbers (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) but its current form should have most passing tonight. For what it’s worth, the Suns have gone 1-7 SU and 4-4 ATS as double-digit underdogs this season. The Blazers have won seven straight against the Suns in this series but they’re just 3-4 ATS.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Thursday, December 6


Maryland @ Purdue

Game 707-708
December 6, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Maryland
68.799
Purdue
71.609
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Purdue
by 3
143
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Purdue
by 7
149 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Maryland
(+7); Under

Charlotte @ Wake Forest

Game 709-710
December 6, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Charlotte
46.377
Wake Forest
51.208
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wake Forest
by 5
149
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wake Forest
by 11 1/2
135
Dunkel Pick:
Charlotte
(+11 1/2); Over

Drake @ WI-Milwaukee

Game 711-712
December 6, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Drake
53.298
WI-Milwaukee
50.743
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Drake
by 2 1/2
145
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Drake
by 1
149
Dunkel Pick:
Drake
(-1); Under

Iowa State @ Iowa

Game 713-714
December 6, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Iowa State
70.543
Iowa
62.522
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Iowa State
by 8
153
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Iowa State
by 1
148
Dunkel Pick:
Iowa State
(-1); Over

Pepperdine @ Cal Riverside

Game 715-716
December 6, 2018 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pepperdine
46.258
Cal Riverside
46.824
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cal Riverside
by 1
137
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pepperdine
by 7 1/2
147
Dunkel Pick:
Cal Riverside
(+7 1/2); Under

Oakland @ Fairfield

Game 717-718
December 6, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
46.532
Fairfield
47.065
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Fairfield
by 1
144
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Fairfield
by 3 1/2
148
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+3 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, December 6

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MARYLAND (7 - 1) at PURDUE (5 - 3) - 12/6/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PURDUE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
PURDUE is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PURDUE is 1-1 against the spread versus MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
PURDUE is 3-0 straight up against MARYLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (2 - 4) at WAKE FOREST (4 - 3) - 12/6/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 9-20 ATS (-13.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
WAKE FOREST is 36-59 ATS (-28.9 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
WAKE FOREST is 2-0 against the spread versus CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
WAKE FOREST is 2-0 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DRAKE (5 - 1) at WI-MILWAUKEE (2 - 6) - 12/6/2018, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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IOWA ST (7 - 1) at IOWA (6 - 2) - 12/6/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA ST is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less or pick since 1997.
IOWA ST is 256-201 ATS (+34.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
IOWA is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
IOWA is 1-0 against the spread versus IOWA ST over the last 3 seasons
IOWA is 1-1 straight up against IOWA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PEPPERDINE (5 - 3) at UC-RIVERSIDE (2 - 7) - 12/6/2018, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PEPPERDINE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PEPPERDINE is 1-0 against the spread versus UC-RIVERSIDE over the last 3 seasons
PEPPERDINE is 1-0 straight up against UC-RIVERSIDE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (4 - 5) at FAIRFIELD (2 - 6) - 12/6/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
FAIRFIELD is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Thursday, December 6

Purdue won its last four games with Maryland, all by 8 or fewer points; Terrapins lost last two visits here, 83-79/75-67. Boilermakers lost three of last four games after a 4-0 start; all three losses were against top 20 teams- they’ve played schedule #19. Purdue is experience team #198 that is making 38.6% on arc, and they take lot of 3’s. Maryland is 7-1 vs schedule #288; they’re experience team #350 (4th-least in country). Terps’ only loss was 76-71 at home to Virginia. Maryland is getting lot of good shots; they’re making 60.1% of their shots inside the arc.

Wake Forest beat Charlotte last two years by 23-17 points; 49ers are experience team #336 that is 2-4 vs schedule #241- they lost both road games, by 20 at Davidson, 8 at Charleston- their best win was 66-64 at home over Oklahoma State- they were down 24 at one point. Wake Forest is 4-3 vs schedule #314; Deacons are experience team #332 that lost at home to #274 Houston Baptist- Wake’s best win was #137 Cal State-Fullerton. Deacons are doing good job at getting to foul line and are making 39.1% of their 3’s, but they don’t take that many of them.

Drake has its third coach in three years; Bulldogs are 4-1 vs schedule #174, with only loss by 29 at #58 Colorado. Drake is experience team #116 (#340 in MC) that scored 83-95 points in last two games; Bulldogs start three seniors and a junior- they made 12-23 on arc in their last game. Milwaukee is 2-6 vs schedule #177, losing last two games by 19-15 points; Panthers’ only two wins are against teams that are ranked outside top 200. Milwaukee is in bottom 10 in country in forcing turnovers; they’re making only 30.7% on arc, they’re on 3rd coach in four years.

Iowa State won four of last five games with Iowa; teams split last four meetings in Iowa City. Cyclones are 7-1 vs schedule #239- they got two of the four guys who were out back for last game- their bench has played #345 minutes so far. State split two top 100 games on Maui, losing to Arizona by 5, beating San Diego St by 30- their defensive eFG% is #29. Iowa lost couple of Big 14 games in last week, by 6-22 points; Hawkeyes are #247 experience team (#31 in MC); they were 12-46 in arc in last two games. Iowa’s best two wins are over Oregon, UConn.

Pepperdine is 4-3 vs schedule #317; Waves are experience team #302 that lost at home to #322 Northridge Monday- both teams in this game have a new coach. Pepperdine starts a freshman, two sophomores; they’re forcing turnovers 22.3% of time, making 38.7% on arc while playing tempo #17. Riverside is 1-7 vs schedule #142, losing its last three games, by 12-10-9 points; Highlanders are experience team #330 that is turning ball over 21.3% of time while playing tempo #325. Big West teams are 7-3-1 vs spread this year when playing WCC teams.

Oakland is 2-5 vs schedule #240, losing last two games by 20-10 points; Grizzlies are experience team #196 (MC #346) whose defensive eFG% is #337. Oakland usually plays fast, but so far this year, they’re playing tempo #313 while starting three juniors and a freshman. Fairfield is 2-6 vs schedule #271; Stags are experience team #303 that is shooting only 45.9% inside arc- their defensive eFG% is #289. Fairfield is 1-4 vs teams ranked outside top 200, which isn’t good. Stags lost their two home games, to LIU/Wagner, by combined total of eight points.