Monday 12-10-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Tech Trends - Week 14
Bruce Marshall

Monday, Dec. 10

MINNESOTA at SEATTLE (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Hawks on 6-1-1 spread uptick, most of that on road (they play 4 of last 5 at home). Zimmer 7-4-2 vs. line last 12 away from home. Vikes “over” 4-2 away TY, Hawks “over” last 4.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends.

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MNF - Vikings at Seahawks
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

One season after sitting one victory away from the Super Bowl, the Vikings (6-5-1 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) are in danger of missing the playoffs. It’s been an up and down season in Minnesota as the Vikings are coming off a 24-10 setback at New England as six-point underdogs. The Vikings trailed 10-0 early before Kirk Cousins hit Adam Thielen on a five-yard touchdown in the final minute before halftime to cut the deficit to 10-7.

Minnesota tied the game at 10-10 in the third quarter on a Dan Bailey field goal, but the Patriots struck for two touchdowns to pull away for the victory and cover. Cousins finished with 201 passing yards in spite of 32 completions, while getting intercepted twice. The Patriots picked up 27 first downs compared to 16 by the Vikings, as Minnesota has lost its past two road games and failed to cover each time as an underdog.

The Seahawks (7-5 SU, 7-3-2 ATS) have come back to life in the NFC Wild Card race by pulling out three consecutive victories. The latest triumph came in a 43-16 rout of the 49ers last Sunday as 10-point favorites to move above .500 at home with a 3-2 mark. Russell Wilson completed only 11 passes, but four of those went for touchdowns, including two scoring strikes to Jaron Brown.

Seattle’s rushing attack continued to punish the opposition by gaining 168 yards, while Bobby Wagner finished off the blowout with a 98-yard interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. Although Seattle allowed 49ers’ quarterback Nick Mullens to throw for 414 yards and two touchdowns, the Seahawks allowed 17 points or less for the fifth time this season.

TOTAL RECALL

The Seahawks began the season cashing the UNDER in six of eight games. However, Seattle has turned up the offense by hitting the OVER in each of the past four contests. The offense has provided 27 points or more in each of the last four games, while eclipsing that total in seven of the past eight contests. Seattle has drilled the OVER in three of the previous four games at CenturyLink Field, while allowing 24 points or more three times in this span.

The Vikings hit the OVER in four of their first seven contests, but have finished UNDER the total in four of the last five games. The Minnesota offense has been inconsistent during this stretch by failing to score 21 points or more in consecutive games, while allowing 24 points or more in losses to New England, Chicago, and New Orleans, all division leaders.

ROAD WOES

Last season, Minnesota won six of eight games away from U.S. Bank Stadium, but has stumbled to a 2-3-1 road mark this season. The only victory for the Vikings in the road underdog role came at Philadelphia in a Week 5 triumph, 23-21 as 3 ½-point ‘dogs. Minnesota has compiled a 2-2 ATS record when receiving points on the highway, while going 4-6 ATS in this role since 2016.

SERIES HISTORY

The Seahawks and Vikings haven’t hooked up since facing each other twice in 2015. Seattle destroyed Minnesota, 38-7 in Week 13 of that season, while the Seahawks edged the Vikings, 10-9 in the Wild Card round. The playoff win for Seattle came in the bitter cold as Vikings’ kicker Blair Walsh missed a chip-shot field goal that would have given Minnesota the victory. In the two losses, the Vikings reached the end zone only once, which came on a 101-yard kickoff return in the December defeat when Minnesota trailed, 35-0.

Seattle has captured each of the past four matchups in the series, including a pair of wins at CenturyLink Field by double-digits in 2012 and 2013. Minnesota’s last win over Seattle came in 2009, back when Brett Favre was still the quarterback of the Vikings in a 35-9 blowout at the Metrodome.

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

The Vikings are making their first appearance on Monday night football this season, as Minnesota won in each of their Monday matchups in 2017. Last season, the Vikings defeated the Saints in the season opener at home, while edging the Bears at Soldier Field, 20-17 as 3 ½-point favorites. Minnesota is listed as an underdog on Monday night for the first time since 2013, when the Vikings fell to the Giants, 23-7 as four-point ‘dogs.

Seattle last appeared under the Monday night lights in Week 2 at Chicago in a 24-17 setback as 4 ½-point underdogs. Since Wilson was drafted by the Seahawks in 2012, Seattle has won six of eight times in Monday action, but the two losses have come in each of the past two seasons, including a home defeat to Atlanta in 2017.

TREND WATCH

Trends expert Vince Akins checks in with a pair of trends to keep an eye on for Monday’s contest, both involving Minnesota. “The Vikings are 10-0-1 ATS (7.91 ppg) since Dec 21, 2006 as a dog coming off a loss where they allowed at least 300 passing yards,” Akins notes, which includes an underdog victory at Philadelphia in Week 5.

From a totals perspective, Akins provides an UNDER situation for Minnesota, “The Vikings are 0-12 OU (-9.00 ppg) since Oct 12, 2014 when they are coming off a road game where they were not more than TD-dogs and gained less than 310 total yards.” This situation occurred back in Week 12 against Green Bay, as the Vikings won, 24-17 and stayed UNDER the total of 48 ½.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Seahawks opened up as 3 ½-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook, while the total sat at 45 last Monday. Nearly seven days later and not much movement on the number as Seattle is laying three at most spots with the juice at -115 or -120. The total has taken a split uptick to 45 ½ as the Vikings are 3-0 to the OVER on road totals of 45 ½ or less this season.

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Mike Williams

Dec 10 '18, 7:00 PM in 40m
NCAA-B | Hofstra vs Manhattan
Play on: Manhattan +7½ -110 at YouWager

1* on Manhattan +7½ -110

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Mike Lundin

Dec 10 '18, 7:05 PM in 45m
NBA | Pistons vs 76ers
Play on: 76ers -7 -110 at 5Dimes

#NBA FREE PICK FROM MIKE LUNDIN
The Philadelphia 76ers are going for their sixth victory in seven games and they have covered the spread in four of their last five, including a 117-111 triumph at Detroit on Dec 7. They've covered the spread in six of the last seven meetings with the Pistons and look good to do it again in Monday's matchup.
While Philly has gotten a solid two days of rest since that contest, the Pistons took a 116-108 loss to New Orleans home in Detroit yesterday, its fourth straight setback.
Philly could be without Joel Embiid (migraine) but owns a superb 13-1 home record. We can also note that Pistons are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Free pick on Philadelphia 76ers.

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Bobby Conn

Dec 10 '18, 7:35 PM in 1h
NBA | Pelicans vs Celtics
Play on: Pelicans +7½ -105 at

1* Free Play on Pelicans +7½ -105

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Jack Jones

Dec 10 '18, 7:35 PM in 1h
NBA | Pelicans vs Celtics
Play on: Celtics -4 -110 at betonline

Jack’s Free Pick Monday: Boston Celtics -4
The Boston Celtics are finally starting to play up to their potential after a slow start to the season. It was only a matter of time. The Celtics have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, winning all five games by at least 9 points and by an average of a whopping 28.6 points per game.
The Celtics are also well-rested and ready to go tonight. They will be playing just their 3rd game in 9 days here. Meanwhile, the Pelicans will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days after winning 116-108 in Detroit last night.
Both teams have some injury/rest questions coming into this game. The Celtics may rest some starters, but they are a deep enough team that I think they can overcome it. Elfrid Payton is out for the Pelicans, while Anthony Davis and E’Twaun Moore are questionable. Davis just can’t seem to stay healthy as he suffered a hip injury against the Pistons yesterday.
The Pelicans are just 4-10 on the road this season. New Orleans is 2-11 ATS off a road game this season. The Pelicans are 1-10 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams who make 36% of their attempts or more this season. Boston is 21-6 ATS in its last 27 home games. Bet the Celtics Monday.

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Alex Smart

Dec 10 '18, 7:35 PM in 1h
NBA | Pelicans vs Celtics
Play on: Celtics -7½ -105 at 5Dimes

The Celtics enter this home contest having won 5 straight games by an average of 28 ppg and covering by an average of 22 ppg. Meanwhile, New Orleans a team that is on tired legs after playing in Motown last night beating the Pistons, and are also expected to be playing without their key star Anthony Davis this evening after he collided with Griffin in that game I mentioned.If he does play he will be limited and less than 100%. New Orleans swept the two-game series from the Celtics last year, and now face a red hot, fresh team with revenge on board playing in their own back yard. Note: The Pelicans are 4-10 SU on the road this season,
NEW ORLEANS is 1-10 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts this season.
Play on the Boston Celtics to cover

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Sal Michaels

Dec 10 '18, 8:05 PM in 1h
NBA | Kings vs Bulls
Play on: Bulls +2½ -105 at Bovada

Free Play on Bulls +2½ -105

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Teddy Davis

Dec 10 '18, 8:05 PM in 1h
NBA | Jazz vs Thunder
Play on: Thunder -5 -105 at betonline

Let's take the Thunder here coming off a bad loss to the Bulls and now having 2 days off. I dont think they will take the Jazz lightly here as they have two hard road games coming up. Utah played last night as was blown out @ the Spurs. OKC is 9-3 at home this season and I dont think they have a problem with the Jazz tonight

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Jimmy Boyd

Dec 10 '18, 8:05 PM in 1h
NBA | Cavs vs Bucks
Play on: UNDER 221½ -110

1* Free NBA Pick on Cavs/Bucks UNDER 221.5
The books have set the total too high for this one. This is the definition of a flat spot for the Bucks, who just gave a max effort following a loss at home to the Warriors in yesterday's 104-99 upset win at Toronto. They know they can show up here with less than their best to get a win.
The Cavs also come in off an upset win, as they defeated the Wizards 116-101 as a 7.5-point home dog on Saturday. Key there is it was at home, as Cleveland is just 2-10 on the road and scoring just 101 ppg away from home.
There's also a bit of a twist here, as these two teams just recently made a trade, with John Henson and Matthew Dellavedova going from Milwaukee to Cleveland and George Hill and Sam Dekker (traded to Washington for Jason Smith) went from the Cavs to the Bucks. I think that can only help both defenses, as they will get some insight to the other teams offensive plays.
Lastly, there's a big time system in play. The UNDER 32-12 (73%) going back to 1996 when you have a total of 210 or more with a one team off an upset win as a home dog (Cavs) against an opponent off an upset win as a road dog (Bucks). Take the UNDER!

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John Martin

Dec 10 '18, 8:05 PM in 1h
NBA | Kings vs Bulls
Play on: Bulls +2½ -105 at Bovada

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Chicago Bulls +2.5
The Bulls covered in their first two games with Jim Boylen as head coach, including an upset win over the Thunder. But then they suffered their worst loss in franchise history in a 56-point loss to the Celtics. That prompted a players’ only meeting, and then a meeting with Boylen between the players and him. Based on the comments I read following those meetings, I expect a big performance from the Bulls tonight at home against the Kings. And the Bulls are getting healthy with Lauri Markkanen recently returning, and both Kris Dunn and Bobby Portis slated to return soon. Give me the Bulls.

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Kenny Walker

Dec 10 '18, 8:35 PM in 2h
NBA | Magic vs Mavs
Play on: Magic +4½ -105 at Bovada

Free Pick on Magic

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Dave Price

Dec 10 '18, 8:35 PM in 2h
NBA | Magic vs Mavs
Play on: Mavs -3½ -107 at 5Dimes

Dave’s Monday Free Play:
1* on Dallas Mavericks -3.5
The Key: It’s time to keep riding the Mavs at home, especially as short home favorites over the Orlando Magic tonight. The Mavs have quietly gone 9-0 SU & 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games. And home court-advantage clearly matters when these teams get together. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home meetings with Orlando. Take Dallas.

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Frank Sawyer

Dec 10 '18, 8:35 PM in 2h
NBA | Magic vs Mavs
Play on: Magic +4½ -105 at 5Dimes

Take the Orlando Magic plus the points versus the Dallas Mavericks. Orlando (12-14) has lost two straight games after suffering an upset loss to Indiana as a 4-point favorite on Friday. The Magic is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a double-digit loss at home. Orlando has also covered the point spread in 5 straight games on the road. Dallas (13-11) comes off a 10-7-104 upset win over Houston where they were 3.5-point underdogs on Saturday. The Mavericks made 49.4% of their shots which was the shooting performance in their last five games. Dallas has scored at least 106 points in four straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after scoring at least 105 points in three straight games. Take Orlando plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

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Brandon Lee

Dec 10 '18, 8:35 PM in 2h
NBA | Magic vs Mavs
Play on: Mavs -4 -105 at BMaker

10* FREE NBA PICK (Mavs -4)
I'll take my chances here with the Mavericks as a small home favorite against the Magic. Dallas has been one of the biggest surprises early on and I think they are still flying on the radar. Mavs enter with an 11-2 SU record at home, where they are outscoring teams by 8.2 ppg. Last time out they beat the Rockets 107-104 as a 3.5-point home dog. Houston is a division opponent and the last 18 times the Mavs were off an upset win at home against a division home dog they covered the spread in 14 of the 18. Mavs are also 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games when they enter having won 3 of their last 4 and the Magic are a mere 4-14 ATS the last 2 seasons in the month of December. Give me Dallas -4!