1/8/09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1/8/09

Doc’s Sports BCS Total Action of the Season
It is the last college football game of the year and the doctor has you covered with a strong total when the Gators and Sooners do battle in South Beach. We have a great feel with how the tempo of this game will be played so sign-up now and let Doc bring you home the winner.


UNDER 72

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1/8/09

Jim KRUGGER's Pick Pack
Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: Florida at Oklahoma
Time: 8:15 PM EDT (Thu)

Play: Florida (-3 -110)
Line Source: BETUS
Posted on: December 9, 2008 @ 9:20:11 AM EST

Take Florida over Oklahoma

Florida is the better team. Especially on defense. Their speed on defense cannot be surpassed in the country. Oklahoma can obviously score, 54.0 points per game, #1 in the nation. However, Florida is #3 at 45.15 ppg. The Gators also played against better defensive teams than OU with ten opponents ranked in the top 40 in total defense. OU’s average opponent’s defensive ranking was #77 with seven of their opponents ranking 86th or lower out of the 119 FBS schools.

Nine of the past ten BCS champions have had a top-10 scoring defense. The only one who was not in the top ten was LSU last year at #17. However, they did rate a #3 ranking in total defense. OU is #57 in scoring defense, 65th in total defense. Florida is ninth in total defense, fifth in scoring defense.

The argument can be made that OU with their hurry-up offense gave other teams more opportunities on the field. That is obviously true as OU’s opponents ran 922 plays, 70.9 per game, 24th in the nation. Gator foes ran an average of 63.5 plays per game, #96. A more telling stat is the yards per play each defense gave up. Florida allowed 4.40 ypp, #9 in the FBS. OU came in 46th giving up 5.06 ypp.

If that argument is made on defense, the offensive numbers should also be looked at. The Gators ranked 114th with 61.5 plays per game. OU ran more plays per game than any team, 79.7. OU averaged 7.05 yards per play, Florida 7.19.

Both teams are very solid in taking care of the football with the Sooners ranking #1 in the land in turnover margin and Florida right behind them at #2. Florida ranked #2 in the nation in pass defense efficiency with a 94.17 rating and a INT to TD ratio of 24-10. OU was #41 with a 117.14 rating and a INT/TD ratio of 17/20.

OU’s Sam Bradford led the country in passing efficiency with a 186 quarterback rating. Tebow was #5 at 176. Last year they were #1 and #2 respectively. Bradford had 6 INT’s in 448 pass attempts, a superb 1.23% INT rate. Tebow did even better with just two interceptions in 268 PA’s, a .75 rate. Tebow is like a fullback that can throw. He is a dual threat at any time. Florida should have back Percy Harvin at full strength from his ankle injury.

Florida also has the superior running attack averaging 5.96 yards per carry and ranking 11th in the country at 229.77 yards per game. OU’s rushing game is also good, 4.77 ypc for 205.54 ypg, #19.

If you want trends: Florida is 15-3 ATS against teams with a winning record. Florida is 17-5 their last 22 on grass. Florida is 11-3 their past 14 non-conference games. Oklahoma is 7-1 ATS their last eight non-conference games.

Yes, OU can score points. But watching their game against Texas is hard to forget as the Horns in the second half ran over the Sooners and controlled the football, 37 minutes time of possession to 23. If you believe defense wins championships

Take the Gators

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1/8/09

ATS Lock Club
3 Florida -5
5 New Mexico St -5
4 Boise St. -3
3 Denver (NCAA) +2

ATS Financial Package
3 Under 69.5
4 Louisianna Tech +7.5
3 Washington -6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1/8/09

CHARLIE

500* Florida vs Oklahoma Over 69
30* Oklahoma +5
20* Butler -10
20* Cleveland St -13
10* Knicks @ Dallas Over 207
Dallas -8 free play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1/8/09

KELSO


2008 PERSONAL BEST FOOTBALL CLUB
Thursday, January 08, 2009
BCS Championship
20 Units
Florida (-5½) over Oklahoma
8:17 PM -- FedEx BCS National Championship Game - Dolphin Sta

Comments: One could write a book on the explosive unstoppable offenses of both teams but that has been hashed over to the point of boredom. It is simply great skill players, great speed and quickness—power on power. With that said, my figures say there are only two edges in this game and Florida has both of them. First of all, this is basically a home game for Florida and two-thirds of the capacity crowd of 75,192 will be backers of Florida—definitely a factor in a game of this important. Carrying even more weight is the fact Florida does one thing Oklahoma does not—it plays defense. The Gators were 5th in the country in points allowed (12.8 points per game) 2nd in interceptions (24) and 8th in total yards allowed (279.3) Oklahoma was nowhere defensively, giving up an average of 24.5 points and 359.1 yards per game. In the end, the home field edge and a defense that stopped some of the best teams in the country will get the win and the cover. It also is significant the big bettors of the world started pouring it in on Florida Wednesday morning.
Mostly clear. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 70.

20 Units
Florida/Oklahoma UNDER 69½ Points
8:17 PM -- FedEx BCS National Championship Game - Dolphin Sta


Mostly clear. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 70.

10 Units
BCS Championship Parlay

Florida (-5½) over Oklahoma
Florida/Oklahoma UNDER 69½ Points

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1/8/09

Lenny Del Genio

BCS Play of the Year

Florida -3.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1/8/09

Doc

4 Unit Play. #709 Take Minnesota +2 over Iowa (7:00 pm ESPN 2) Minnesota has already proven that they can win on the road with victories against Louisville and Colorado State and now they will add Iowa to their resume. Minnesota got back on track with a dominating victory against Ohio State on Saturday and we expect them to take down Iowa on Thursday. The Hawkeyes have trouble scoring points and will not be able to reach seventy and we expect Minnesota to win this one straight-up.



4 Unit Play. #723 Take UL-Lafayette -1 over New Orleans (8:00 pm) Two bad teams are set to do battle this evening in New Orleans in the hopes of rising up the standing in the Sun Belt Conference. Both teams have trouble scoring points and this will be an ugly game but the recent success of the Ragin’ Cajuns is hard to ignore. They have won eight of the last nine matchups with New Orleans.



4 Unit Play. #743 Take California +1 over Washington State (10:00 pm) I have jumped way off the Cougars bandwagon and feel that they will be in for a rough season during PAC-10 play. I am been really impressed with Cal this season and only expect them to get better under new Coach Mike Montgomery. This game may be close early but Washington State has been a terrible second half team this season and expect them to fade once again. Cal own a 68-45 advantage in regards to the all-time series and we expect more of the same on Thursday, as they pound the Cougars yet again.



5 Unit Play. #774 Take Montana -3 ½ over Northern Arizona (9:00 pm) This game is more about going against the Lumberjacks, as they are coming off an emotionally draining 4-OT loss to Portland State in Flagstaff last Sunday. They will not be able to recover in time to play the Grizzles in Missoula this evening. The Grizzlies hold a 53-28 advantage in the head-to-head series and I expect them to them to make some noise in the Big Sky this season. They are 6-1 at Dahlberg Arena this season and the Lumberjacks are 0-8 on the road. Montana wins this game by double digits and we collect big in the process.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1/8/09

North coast 3 star on florida minus 6
and and a single on the over

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1/8/09

Balfe

College Football
Florida/Oklahoma Over 69.5
Everyone is raving about how good the Oklahoma offense is, but no other offense has been hotter than Florida's in the second half of the season. Florida has a good defense and should limit Oklahoma to under their average, but the Gators will put up a lot of points especially in the return game which they are so awesome at and Oklahoma struggles. This one area could determine the whole game. Its tough to pick a winner especially with the line moving up to almost a TD. Florida is the more balanced team, but Bradford wasn't named the best player in College Football for nothing. Look for both teams to trade blows sending this over the total. Take the Over.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1/8/09

Michael Cannon
Thursday's BCS Championship...
75 Dime –

FLORIDA

Take Florida as the small chalk tonight over Oklahoma in the BCS Championship.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1/8/09

Seabass

100* Florida

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1/8/09

atslocks.com

Florida -5 vs Oklahoma: Florida -5 (10 unit play)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1/8/09

Vegas-Runner

3* Florida over 69

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1/8/09

Teddy June’s College Basketball Favorite of the Week

My 10* College Basketball Favorite of the Week is the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over the Minnesota Golden Gophers. I talk about overrated/overvalued teams in the market place a great deal in my write-ups and tonight we get a terrific opportunity to fade, according to my numbers, one of the most overrated/overvalued teams in the country in the Gophers. The Gophers for the 2nd straight year have jumped out of the gates fast posting 13-1 SU record and have only played 2 games away from home all year long. They won at Colorado State by one point and beat Louisville by 6 on a neutral floor. The Ville have had a disastrous start to their season where they have been very up and down so I take that win with a grain of salt. Outside of those two games their other 12 games have all been at home. Additionally their non-conference schedule was a cake walk beating the likes of Concordia St. Paul, Eastern Washington, ND State, SD State, Southeastern Louisiana and the list goes on. Meanwhile on the other side Iowa has played a solid early season schedule with wins over Kansas State, Iowa State, and Northern Iowa and losses against WVU, BC, Drake and Ohio State. They have picked up their strong home court advantage early this season posting 9-0 SU record, while stumbling the last few years, this has been a team that for many years was unbeatable at home. While they are still a program in rebuilding under Lickliter and will certainly have their ups and downs this season they are in a great spot tonight. The Hawkeyes are catching a Minnesota team making their first road trip in conference and playing in their first true road environment game this season. The key for Iowa will be getting good looks and continuing their process of the Lickliter offense that is slow, methodical and effective. It has led to good early things with the Hawkeyes shooting 47.6% from the field overall and 40.9% from the 3 point line, two staples of a Lickliter team. It is noteworthy the Gophers are 2-8-1 ATS their last 11 road games after playing 3 or more straight home games and the Hawkeyes are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games overall. I currently have this line at -1.5. My 10* College Favorite of the Week is the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points. As always, Good Luck, Let’s make some money.


Teddy June’s College Basketball Underdog Game of the Day

My 10* College Basketball Underdog Game of the Day is the Wright State Raiders plus the points over the Butler Bulldogs. Occasionally in sports a key injury can actually help a team to rally, new players step up and players emerge as that key player sits out with the injury. Thus is the case for Wright State as they started the year 0-6 SU, 0-5 ATS and then proceeded to lose one of their better players in Vaughn Duggins to a hand injury. Then they proceeded to win two straight including a decent win against a pretty good Arkansas LR team, lost by 13 to Wake Forest in Wake as 22 point underdogs and since have reeled off 6 straight wins including wins over Oral Roberts, USF, and a solid Cleveland State team. The difference maker for them has been the maturation of stud JUCO transfer and two time JUCO all American Cory Cooperwoord. He has provided a nice post presence and a scorer for them. Additionally the play of John David Gardner who has scored in double figures in 8 of his last 10 games and is averaging 4 assists per game as well. The junior guard Todd Brown has also been key for them scoring in double figures in 4 straight games. With Duggins out the Raiders have rallied, members have fit new roles and players have stepped up to turn around their season. The Raiders have to travel to a tough place to play tonight but a place they are very familiar with. Wright State and Butler have quietly built up a nice rivalry in the Horizon the last several years with 8 of their last 10 meetings being decided in single digits. In addition to that Butlers rise to national prominence has added some spice to this matchup. The Bulldogs after losing several key players are having another solid year but playing a bit over their expected expectations. They have recently gotten into the top 25 rankings but I have them being overvalued in the betting marketplace. Their early season success has inflated this number along with their reputation in the marketplace while Wright State’s early stumbles really knock them out of the Horizon picture early on. The Raiders have dominated this series ATS wise as they are 11-1 ATS their last 12 against Butler, this simply due to the fact that every time these two teams meet up Butler is the team on the public’s radar and in turn the line is inflated to recognize that. Two slow methodical teams who play solid defense, I expect a low scoring tight affair here. I currently have this line at +10.5. My 10* College Basketball Underdog Game of the Day is the Wright State Raiders plus the points. As always, Good Luck, Let’s make some money.


Teddy June’s College Football BCS Championship Selection

My 10* College Football BCS Championship Selection is the Oklahoma Sooners plus the points over the Florida Gators. The big game is finally here pitting the 12-1 SU/10-2 ATS Gators against the 12-1 SU/10-2 ATS Oklahoma Sooners. With the way the media has talked about this game and the way the betting public has continued to pound Florida you would think the Sooners aren’t even going to step out on the field tonight. The reason has been simple, the Big 12 has not looked good for the most part in the Bowl games and Florida has been a public darling with Tebow for quite a while now. That being said motivation is something that is very crucial in bowl games and in College sports and Texas Tech, Texas, Missouri, and the rest of the Big 12 did not have much motivation to show up in their bowl games. The comparison being made to Oklahoma really cannot be said because this Sooners squad is far different than the rest of the Big 12. They scored 60 or more points in 5 straight games down the stretch and finished the season averaging 54ppg. They have more athletes on the offense end than any other team in the Big 12 and are led by a 6’4 NFL prototype quarterback who had his 2nd straight phenomenal season. Additionally he sits behind the biggest and best offensive line in the country unlike Texas Tech who’s offensive line is far from the same level. Also they run a more pro style offense than any of the other Big 12 teams. While there is no question these offensive numbers are a bit inflated due to the Big 12 being offense happy they are still phenomenal numbers and Oklahoma still has a ton of talent on the offensive end. Florida has not seen an offense like this all year long and matter of fact Oklahoma’s defense has seen high powered strong offenses all season while Florida has seen much weaker offenses. Oklahoma’s defense faced the following offensive ranks this season, 24, 46, 9, 21, 34, 13, 4, 6 and 8th. Meanwhile, Florida faced 72, 89, 116, 30, 49, 56, 107, 22, 116, 97, no rank, 54 and 64th. Additionally the best offense they faced was 30th that was Ole Miss the only game they have lost this year. While everyone trashes on Oklahoma’s defense in comparison to Florida’s it is done so unfairly in my opinion as Florida faced a boat load of SEC teams that in a down year offensively were frankly not very good. Oklahoma’s defense every single week was tested by a strong offense and most of the time they were so far ahead in games they let up anyways. Florida’s offense has not been nearly as impressive as Oklahoma this season, the reason is Harvin can’t stay healthy (said to be around 90 percent tonight) and it is frankly not a hard offense to prepare for. Tebow and crew really don’t do a lot of special things on the offensive end, especially in comparison to what has been called the fast break in football in the Sooners offense. Coach Bob Stoops at one point in his career carried the nick name big game Bob that until his Sooners pulled no-shows in 4 of the last 5 bowl games they have played in. That motivation will show up on the field tonight, there is nothing like listening to the media and public hammer into the players that their program can’t show up in the big game and it will give Stoops more motivation than he’s ever had to win a game. There was a reason at one point in time he was named big game Bob and I expect we see it tonight in his preparation and game plan for this game. The line has moved off the opening of -3 for Florida and that was even shaded off the LVSC number of -1.5. The reason has been simple everyone is betting on Florida and books have continued to have to move the line. This has created some nice value for Oklahoma backers and an opportunity to go against the entire free world in a big game. Wait on this line and get 6 if you can. My 10* College Football BCS Championship Selection is the Oklahoma Sooners plus the points. As always, Good Luck, Let’s make some money.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 1/8/09

Seabass

NCAAB
50* W Kentucky
20* Minnesota
20* Tenn Tech
20* Hawaii

NHL
20* Ottawa/Boston under