Thursday 12-13-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Opening Line Report - Week 15
Joe Williams

The books made a killing in Week 14, as plenty of underdogs were coming through to save the shops. Generally the public sinks money on the favorites, and 'dogs were hitting all over the boards. I am paraphrashing a user I saw post in passing: "Show me a winning parlay ticket. There weren't many."

We have three regular-season weekends to go, and with college football in the rear-view mirror we get Saturday football, in addition to the usual assortment of Sunday activity. If you love betting NFL, this time of the year is right up your alley, as you have four separate days to watch and win.

Thursday, Dec. 13

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 53)

There hasn't been a lot of movement on this game yet, as most shops have held steady at -3 1/2. If you're feeling the Chiefs, Jerry's Nugget had the line drop from -3 1/2 to -3.

This is a game to watch closely in terms of the injury report. The Chargers have RBs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler as question marks due to injury. If they're down to their third- and fourth-string tailbacks, the Chiefs could have a big advantage and the line might be on the move.

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Sharps take early shot at Chargers' odds for NFL Week 15 clash vs. Chiefs
Patrick Everson

Star tight end Travis Kelce has helped the Chiefs compile the AFC's best record. However, the surging Chargers drew early sharp money for Thursday's Week 15 AFC clash against host Kansas City.

As mid-December approaches, it’s definitely getting down to crunch time in the NFL’s race for postseason berths. We check in on the opening lines and early action for four Week 15 games, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)

Kansas City is in the driver’s seat for the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, but this Thursday night clash will be key to staying in that seat. The Chiefs (11-2 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) converted two fourth downs to get a late fourth-quarter touchdown that forced overtime against Baltimore, then won 27-24 as 6.5-point home favorites in Week 14.

Los Angeles isn’t getting the headlines, but is having an excellent season and can tie K.C. for the best mark in the AFC with a win in the first game of Week 15. The Chargers (10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS) went off as hefty 17-point home faves against Cincinnati in Week 14 and bolted to a 14-3 lead, then held on for a 26-21 victory.

“Crazy turn of events for the Chiefs, with them pulling out the victory over Baltimore and New England’s stunning loss to the Dolphins. The Steelers and Texans both lost, too,” Murray said. “Kansas City can basically wrap up the division and home field with a win here, but this is usually when Philip Rivers and the Chargers are at their best as a road ‘dog. This should be the best Thursday night game of the season and a very high-volume game for the books.”

To Murray’s point, the Chargers got a little sharp play early at +3.5, so The SuperBook adjusted Los Angeles’ price to -120.

“The wiseguys love betting the Chargers as a road ‘dog,” he said.

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Betting Recap - Week 14
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 14 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 8-7
Against the Spread 6-9

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 11-4
Against the Spread 9-6

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 131-73-2
Against the Spread 92-107-7

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 127-78-2
Against the Spread 102-97-7

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 98-108

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Raiders (+10, ML +425) vs. Steelers, 24-21
Dolphins (+9, ML +350) vs. Patriots, 34-33
Jets (+4.5, ML +180) at Bills, 27-23
Colts (+4, ML +170) at Texans, 24-21

The largest favorite to cover
Saints (-9.5) at Buccaneers, 28-14
Titans (-5.5) vs. Jaguars, 30-9
Packers (-4) vs. Falcons, 34-20
Cowboys (-3.5) vs. Eagles, 29-23 (OT)

Bay Area Winners

-- The Oakland Raiders and San Francisco 49ers each won on the same day for the first time since Dec. 3, 2017, making Bay Area football fans happy for the first time in a while. The Raiders surprised the Pittsburgh Steelers 24-21 as double-digit home 'dogs, while the 49ers fired out to a big lead against the Denver Broncos and they held on for a 20-14 victory as short 'dogs at home. The 49ers entered the day 1-5 ATS in their first six games, and 3-9 ATS overall on the season. One of those wins and covers for the Niners were against the Raiders back on Nov. 1.

Carolina Reaper

-- The Carolina Panthers are skidding hard after opening the season 6-2 SU/5-3 ATS. The Panthers took a 26-20 loss against 'The Bake Show' and the Cleveland Browns, losing and failing to cover for the fifth consecutive outing. The defense has allowed 20 or more points in seven straight outings, and 11 of the past 12. On the flip side, the Browns are suddenly resembling an NFL caliber team for the first time in years, winning three of their past four outings while also going 3-1 ATS during the span. They're also 8-5 ATS overall in their 13 outings while going 5-7-1 SU.

Total Recall

-- The game with the highest total on the board (55) never even came close to going 'over'. The New Orleans Saints-Tampa Bay Buccaneers ended up well 'under' in a 28-14 win for the Saints. New Orleans held up their end of the bargain, but head coach Dirk Koetter said after the game he was disappointed in his offense. The second-highest total on the board was the Pittsburgh-Oakland (51) game, and that game ended up going under, too. In fact, there were just 24 points on the board through three quarters and only a 21-point outburst in the fourth made that a closer total that maybe it should have been.

-- The lowest totals on the board were a pair of 37-point lines in the New York Jets-Buffalo Bills contest, and that ended up with a total of 50 points. The Jacksonville Jaguars-Tennessee Titans on Thursday night saw a total of 39 points, as the Titans routed the Jags 30-9. It looked like the total was close, but it was actually over by the end of the third quarter before a scoreless fourth.

-- The 'over/under' is 1-1 this week with the Monday nighter between the Minnesota Vikings-Seattle Seahawks (45.5) still pending. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 22-20 (52.4%).

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bills RB LeSean McCoy (hamstring) pulled a hamstring in Sunday's battle against the Jets in the first quarter and he wasn't able to return. We've seen this movie before.

-- Broncos WR Courtland Sutton (thigh) suffered a thigh injury in the team's road loss in San Francisco and he was unable to return.

-- Jets RB Isaiah Crowell (foot) left Sunday's game in Buffalo and he was unable to return to action.

-- Redskins TE Jordan Reed (foot) suffered a foot injury against the Giants and he was helped to the locker room and unable to return.

Looking Ahead

-- The Chargers and Chiefs will square off on Thursday in a key AFC West Division battle. The Chiefs punched their ticket to the postseason with a win on Sunday, and they can take charge (see what I did there?) of the AFC West with a win over the visitors from Los Angeles, currently one-game back of K.C. The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in the past four road games, while the Chiefs are 12-3 ATS in their past 15 inside the division. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the past seven meetings, while the Chargers are 0-4 ATS in the past four in this series.

-- The Packers travel down to Chicago to take on the red-hot Bears, who looked good in their win over the Rams on Sunday night. The Pack are just 1-6-1 ATS in the past eight road games and 1-5 ATS in the past six inside the division. The Bears are 5-0 ATS in the past five divisional games, and 6-1 ATS in the past seven overall. The Packers have dominated this series lately, at least against the number, going 16-5 ATS in the past 21 at Soldier Field and 12-4 ATS in the past 16 meetings overall. The 'over' is 5-0 in the past five in Chicago, and each of the past four overall in this series.

-- The Seahawks and 49ers do battle in the Bay Area, and San Francisco looks to play spoiler. Seattle is 4-0 ATS in the past four road games, and 3-0-1 ATS in the past four overall. San Fran has failed to cover four in a row inside the division, five in a row against NFC foes and they're just 7-19-1 ATS in the past 27 aginst teams with a winning record while going 6-15 ATS in the past 21 at home. Seattle is 11-2-1 ATS in the past 14 meetings overall, while going 5-1 ATS in the past six trips to San Francisco. The under is also 5-1 in the past six meetings in the Bay Area.

-- The skidding Panthers host the Saints on Monday night in Week 15. New Orleans is 16-6 ATS in the past 22 inside the division, while going 20-6 ATS in the past 26 on the road. They're also 4-0 ATS in the past four against teams with a losing overall mark. Carolina is 8-3 ATS in the past 11 at home, and 5-2 ATS in the past seven against winning teams. However, they're just 2-5 ATS in the past seven inside the division. New Orleans has covered four in a row in Charlotte, while going 6-1 ATS in the past seven in this series. The under is also 11-4 in the past 15 in Carolina

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 15

Thursday. December 13

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LA CHARGERS (10 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (11 - 2) - 12/13/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 123-91 ATS (+22.9 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 123-91 ATS (+22.9 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 99-71 ATS (+20.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 4-1 against the spread versus LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 5-0 straight up against LA CHARGERS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Week 15

Trend Report

Thursday. December 13

Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Chargers is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games
LA Chargers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
LA Chargers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 12 games on the road
LA Chargers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
LA Chargers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 9 games when playing Kansas City
LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
LA Chargers is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games
Kansas City is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Kansas City's last 11 games at home
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 9 games when playing LA Chargers
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 15

Thursday

Chargers (10-3) @ Chiefs (11-2)— First place in AFC West is at stake here; Chiefs won last nine series games, winning last four played here, by 12-7-6-13 points. KC won first meeting this year 38-28 (+3.5) in Week 1, even though Bolts outgained them 541-362- Rivers threw for 418 yards, but LA was -2 in turnovers (0-2). Chargers won nine of their last ten games, are 6-0 outside of LA this season; they’re 25-13-1 vs spread in last 39 games as road underdogs, 2-1 this year. Chiefs won six of last seven games; they scored 40-51 points in their two LOSSES this year. KC is 8-5 in last 13 games as home favorites (0-3 this year)- they were outscored in second half of their last our games. Under is 4-2-1 in last seven Charger games, four of last five KC games went over.

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Tech Trends - Week 15
December 11, 2018
By Bruce Marshall

THURSDAY, DEC. 13

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups
L.A. CHARGERS at KANSAS CITY (FOX/NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Chiefs have owned this series, won last 9 SU vs. Bolts, and KC 8-2 vs. spread last ten in series. Bolts are 5-1 vs. spread as visitor TY (not counting London vs. Titans) and 3-0 as dog, and Chiefs only one cover last six in 2018.
Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs, based on series trends.

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Close Calls - Week 14
December 11, 2018
By Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread and total in the fourth quarter in Week 14 of the NFL regular season with one of the wilder NFL Sundays in recent memory.

Kansas City Chiefs (-6½) 27, Baltimore Ravens 24 (49): The AFC-leading Chiefs led by seven at halftime with a spread that slipped from -7½ to -6 or -6½ by kickoff. Baltimore tied the game late in the third quarter following a Patrick Mahomes interception. A big punt return put the Ravens in position for the upset and with just over four minutes to go Lamar Jackson found John Brown to give the underdog Ravens a seven-point edge. Mahomes cemented his MVP case with a great drive that included a pair of 4th down conversions, the second of which resulted in the game-tying touchdown in the final minute. That score also put the scoring at 48 on a total that reached as high as 53 before settling at 51 and dropping to 49 by kickoff. The Ravens had some time on the clock but disaster struck as a sack led to a fumble and the Chiefs had the ball in field goal range. Harrison Butker would miss from 43 yards at time expired however. Kansas City had the ball first and survived a fumble inside the red zone, ultimately giving Butker another opportunity and he was good from 35 yards. Baltimore crossed midfield but went backwards with a penalty and a sack that saw Jackson exit the game. Robert Griffin III entered and made a good throw on 4th-and-22 but Willie Snead couldn’t come up with it to extend the game. Baltimore still cashed underdog tickets and there were likely mixed results on the total.

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By: Brandon DuBreuil


MIXED MESSAGES FROM THE CHIEFS

It was a confusing day if you’re a Tyreek Hill fan or fantasy owner. First, reports surfaced on Monday that Hill told reporters "my foot's bad”, making it seem like he would be doubtful for Thursday. Later, however, reports stated that his heel injury wasn’t as severe as originally thought. Hill missed practice on Monday but coach Andy Reid said he expects Hill to be in uniform for the Chiefs' game against the Chargers.

Spencer Ware also missed practice with shoulder and hamstring issues but is also expected to play in Week 15.

We’re assuming Hill will be in uniform for what is the biggest game of the year so far in the AFC and it looks like he might have a nice matchup ahead of him. The Chargers are generally tough against the pass, ranked ninth in DVOA, but really seem to struggle against the opponent’s top wideout, with a rank of 30th in DVOA to the position (as highlighted by Antonio Brown’s Week 13 performance of 10-154-1).

As for Hill's injury, it didn’t seem to bother him too much on Sunday against Baltimore as he produced most of his 8-139 stat line after briefly leaving the game to get his foot wrapped up. Monitoring his status over the next couple of days will be key but as of Tuesday, we’re leaning towards backing the Over for Hill’s receiving yards total, assuming he’s on the field.


EKELER IN PROTOCOL

Chargers running back Austin Ekeler is looking like a long shot for Thursday night as he has now been placed in the league’s concussion protocol in addition to the neck injury he suffered on Sunday. Melvin Gordon (knee) also remained on the sideline at practice on Monday, though reports said he “could play” against the Chiefs.

For now, both are looking doubtful, meaning the Chargers will roll into their biggest game of the season with rookies Justin Jackson and Detrez Newsome as their healthy backs.

If Ekeler and Gordon both sit, Jackson would handle the bulk of the work in a very nice matchup against a Chiefs defense that is ranked dead last in DVOA against the run. K.C. allowed 198 rushing yards on Sunday to Baltimore and gives up 127.8 yards on 25.2 carries per game.

Jackson came crashing down to earth last week with 1.7 yards per carry after averaging eight yards per attempt on 15 carries in the two prior weeks. It was a bit discouraging that he couldn’t find holes against a Bengals rush defense (28th in rushing DVOA) that is almost as bad as the Chiefs’, but he’ll have a great chance to rebound with a ton of volume and a great spot on TNF. We’ll be looking to take the Over on his rushing yards total if Ekeler and Gordon both sit.
Sharps take early shot at Chargers' odds for NFL Week 15 clash vs. Chiefs

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NFL's Best ATS Teams (based on cover %):

1. Saints 10-3 ATS
2. Bears 9-4 ATS
3. Seahawks 8-3-2 ATS
4. Chiefs 8-4-1 ATS
t5. Pats 8-5 ATS
t5. Cowboys
t5. Dolphins
t5. Browns


NFL's Worst ATS Teams (based on cover %):

32. Falcons 3-10 ATS
t30. Niners 4-9 ATS
t30. Eagles
29. Jaguars 4-7-2 ATS
t25. Raiders 5-8 ATS
t25. Jets
t25. Bills
t25. Panthers


NFL Top OVER Teams (based on Over %)

1. Chiefs 8-4-1
t2. Bears 8-5
t2. Bengals
t2. Jets
t2. Bucs
t6. Falcons 7-6
t6. Panthers
t6. Packers
t6. Chargers
t6. Giants
t6. Steelers
t6. Niners


NFL's Top UNDER Teams (based on Under %):

1. Broncos 9-3-1
t2. Cardinals 8-5
t2. Texans 8-5
t2. Vikings 8-5
t2. Pats 8-5
t2. Saints 8-5
t2. Eagles 8-5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TNF - Chargers at Chiefs
Tony Mejia

L.A. Chargers at Kansas City (-3.5, 53.5), 8:20 pm ET, FOX/NFLN

The Chiefs have been ahead of the Chargers since winning their Week 1 showdown, but must take them down again to open Week 15 in order to avoid being tied atop the AFC West.

With just three regular-season games remaining, this Thursday night clash represents the best matchup we’ll see all week. That’s truly saying something since there’s also action on Saturday in addition to a fully Sunday and a quality Monday night game between the Panthers and Saints.

Nothing will top L.A. at Kansas City in terms of importance, so hopefully the on-field product will rise up and match the magnitude of this game’s implications.

The difference between being able to coast through its final weeks of the season and ensure itself homefield advantage as long as Kansas City is alive into the conference championship game rides on being able to extend dominant streaks over the Chargers and at Arrowhead this season. The Chiefs have won nine straight against L.A. and are a perfect 6-0 on their home turf, winning four of the games by double-digits.

Baltimore was able to push the Chiefs for four quarters on Sunday, leading into the final minute of action and requiring Patrick Mahomes to convert on a pair of fourth downs. With 1:29 left, Kansas City’s quarterback rolled to his right and bought himself just enough time to throw across his body and connect with Tyreek Hill for 48 yards on a 4th-and-9 conversion that may go down as one of the most impactful plays this NFL season if the Chiefs are able to hold serve on Thursday night. Kansas City was able to tie the Ravens and ended up with a 27-24 overtime win.

They enter this showdown with L.A. with their third-string running back set to get a heavy workload after registering the game-tying score on a five-yard pass from Mahomes with 53 seconds left. Kareem Hunt was cut following video of his confrontation with a woman being released by TMZ on Nov. 30 and his backup, Spencer Ware, is doubtful due to a shoulder injury. That leaves Damien Williams as tonight’s likely starter with rookie Darrel Williams and veteran Charcandrick West also available for carries.

The Chargers also have a complicated situation at running back entering this one since Melvin Gordon is doing his best to return early from a knee injury that has kept him out of the lineup. My expectation is that he won’t look like his usual self if he does make it back out on to the field, but the magnitude of this game is so great that it’s understandable he wants to make every effort to get back out there since competent backup Austin Ekeler has already been ruled out after suffering a stinger. Rookies Justin Jackson and Detrez Newsome would be called upon if Gordon can’t go. Read up on this matchup’s other injury-related concerns below.

Given all the attrition at running back, everyone should expect that the arms of Mahomes and veteran Philip Rivers will ultimately decide matters, but there’s a possibility that we’ll see rain in the second half of this one. It’s also expected to be a windy night with gusts rising into the high teens, which makes Mahomes’ stronger arm a weapon. Snow that was originally expected to be part of the festivities is now unlikely to materialize, but temperatures should be in the high-30s.

Mahomes beat the Chargers in the season opener by throwing four touchdown passes, two of which went to Tyreek Hill, who also opened the scoring with a 91-yard punt return less than two minutes in. Rivers threw for three scores in a game where the Chargers came up well short despite 541 yards of offense, turning it over twice. In many ways, from losing the battle of time of possession by nearly 10 full minutes to getting lit up in yardage despite winning handily, the Chiefs showed us very early how they were going to do things this season. It would therefore not be surprising to see more chunk plays and home run balls from Kansas City in this rematch.

Only Week 5’s contest against the Jaguars saw the Chiefs favored by fewer points at home than oddsmakers have saddled them with for this one, which is in part a nod to L.A.’s excellence in opposing stadiums. Because they’re awaiting Los Angeles Stadium at Hollywood Park that they’ll be sharing with the Rams to open the 2020 season to finish being built, the Chargers have been playing “home” games in Carson’s soccer stadium, the StubHub Center. The L.A. Galaxy consider that a great place to play. The Chargers, understandably, do not.

The joke can be made that the Chargers will be playing their 14th road game of the season here since support for them is so scarce in Carson that their own fans are often drowned out by those from the visiting team. Players have commented that not having a true homefield edge has toughened up and contributed to their success in true road games since they’ve only lost once, falling to the Rams 35-23 back on Sept. 23.

Indeed, the Bolts are perfect outside of L.A. See, it’s funny.

The Chargers’ most recent road conquest came in a 33-30 upset of the Steelers to open December, moving them to 3-1 SU and ATS as a road underdog. They struggled some in a 26-21 win over Cincinnati as a 16-point favorite but were clearly playing not to lose as opposed to putting their foot on the gas. That shouldn’t factor in here given that there’s a division on the line.

Ironically, winning would put the Chargers in line for homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, which would at least mean they could sleep in their own beds and come out of the same locker room for a few rounds of the playoffs, so defeating the Chiefs would have value despite the team’s lack of a true edge at home. To win, they’ll need Rivers to play his best in a big game, which has certainly been an issue in the past. He’ll be facing a Kansas City defense that ranks last in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game (281.8) and 27th in points allowed (27.0), so it’s important that he takes advantage as long as Mother Nature allows him to. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams will try and wreak havoc against a secondary that gets back a familiar face at the perfect time.

Read on below for line movement from Week 14 to Thursday’s numbers, total talk, injury analysis, recent series history and next week’s numbers.

Los Angeles Chargers
Season win total: 9 (Over -140, Under +120)
Odds to win AFC West: 4/1 to 6/1
Odds to win AFC: 4/1 to 7/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 9/1 to 8/1

Kansas City Chiefs
Season win total: 8.5 (Over +115, Under -135)
Odds to win AFC West: 1/7 to 1/9
Odds to win AFC: 2/1 to 7/5
Odds to win Super Bowl: 9/2 to 9/2

LINE MOVEMENT

Both teams have already surpassed their projected win totals and opened the season with longer Super Bowl odds at Westgate LV Superbook than they have to date. Kansas City was 15-to-1 to win the AFC and 30-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, so anyone holding on to one of those tickets is going to be looking great if the Chiefs are able to secure homefield advantage. The Chargers opened the season 6-to-1 to win the AFC and 12-to-1 to win the Super Bowl.

When the season began, L.A. was a 6-to-5 favorite to win the division, while the Chiefs were projected second at 11-to-4. The Broncos and Raiders brought up the rear in terms of expectations at 4/1. If you like L.A. outright tonight, there's certainly value in getting in on this week's divisional odds given the remaining schedule for both teams. They'll each cash playoff props for backers with Kansas City paying out +140 and the Chargers a far less lucrative -160.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Chiefs were a 4-point favorite when the Westgate's early numbers were announced and opened at the 3.5-point spread that is most widely available as of Thursday morning. Westgate had a spread set at -3 with juice of -120 earlier this week but has again parked its number at 3.5.

Kansas City is in the -190 range on the money line. If you like the road 'dog outright, a payout on the Chargers win will get you +160 to +170 depending on where you wager.

INJURY CONCERNS

Hill is arguably the most important Chiefs player outside of Mahomes and has continued making plays despite a heel injury. He’s averaging 17 yards per reception and makes the offense go thanks to his explosive speed commanding so much attention. With Sammy Watkins out with a foot injury and the team digging deep into the depth chart at running back, it’s vital that Hill stays out there for most snaps, even if he’s just playing decoy.

Eric Berry returns for his 2018 debut after missing 29 straight games following a ruptured Achilles suffered in the ’17 season opener. His importance as an emotional leader can’t be overstated, but it remains to be seen how he’ll look out on the field given how much rust he’s got to knock off. Kansas City’s other major injury concern comes up front, where they’ve already had to deviate some in replacing Laurent Duvernay-Tardif when he tore his fibula in October. Left guard Cam Erving is doubtful to play after suffering a knee injury against Baltimore. Jeff Allen should start and Kansas City has to cross its fingers that center Mitch Morse, who returned from a concussion, stays healthy given its lack of depth.

The Chargers’ top concern surrounds Gordon, but DT Brandon Mebane, an elite run stuffer, is also unlikely to participate since he’s dealing with a family emergency after his new daughter was born with a heart defect. Corner Trevor Williams and backup tight end Sean Culkin have been ruled out.

TOTAL TALK

The total opened 56 ½ for this matchup and the number has dropped to 53 ½ as of Thursday morning. Weekly “Total Talk” writer Chris David of VegasInsider.com offered up his thoughts on this AFC West matchup:

This isn’t an easy total to handicap since the game has serious playoff implications and if you’re buying that narrative, you could argue that both teams will be a little bit tighter especially on a short week.

When the pair met in Week 1, Kansas City stopped the Chargers 38-28 from Los Angeles and the ‘over’ (48 ½) connected early in the fourth quarter. What stood out in this game is that the Bolts outgained the Chiefs (541-362) but they lost the turnover battle (2-0) and settled for two early field goals.

Kansas City (8-5) and Los Angeles (7-6) have both leaned to the ‘over’ this season and they enter this matchup on a roll. The Chiefs (39.3 PPG) and Chargers (34.7 PPG) have put up some crooked numbers in their last three games and that’s resulted in 3-0 and 2-1 ‘over’ records respectively.

The Chiefs (32.7 PPG) haven’t been as explosive at home but their defensive numbers (18.7 PPG) at Arrowhead Stadium compared to allowing 34.1 PPG on the road.

This will be the fifth primetime game of the season for the Chiefs and they’ve seen their total results (2-2) split so far but three of those contests were on the road. Los Angeles just played on Sunday Night a couple weeks ago as it rallied from an impressive 33-30 win over the Steelers.

Despite allowing 30 to Pittsburgh in that contest, the Chargers have allowed 16.7 PPG in their last nine games and that’s resulted in a 6-3 ‘under’ mark.

This series has been dominated by the Chiefs, winners in the last nine encounters and even though the Week 1 matchup went ‘over’ the number, the ‘under’ has cashed in six of the previous eight between the pair. Make a note that Chargers QB Philip Rivers hasn’t had much success in his last four trips (0-4) to Arrowhead and the Bolts only scored 7, 3, 27 and 13 points in those games, all losses.

Road teams (2-12 SU) have struggled in the NFL midweek matchup this season and a lot of the results were blowouts. Only three of the games were decided by four points or less and the ‘under’ went 2-1 in those games. I believe this game will be played within that margin and I would lean to the ‘under’ (53 ½) here.

RECENT MEETINGS (Kansas City 9-0 SU, 8-1 ATS last nine; UNDER 6-3)

9/9/18 Kansas City 38-28 at Los Angeles (KC +3.5, 48)
12/16/17 Kansas City 30-13 vs. Los Angeles (KC -1, 47)
9/24/17 Kansas City 24-10 at Los Angeles (KC -3, 47.5)
1/1/17 Kansas City 37-27 at San Diego (KC -5.5, 45)
9/11/16 Kansas City 33-27 OT vs. San Diego (SD +6.5, 45.5)
12/13/15 Kansas City 10-3 vs. San Diego (KC -10.5, 44)
11/22/15 Kansas City 33-3 at San Diego (KC -3, 45)
12/28/14 Kansas City 19-7 vs. San Diego (KC -2.5, 42.5)
10/19/14 Kansas City 23-20 at San Diego (KC +3, 46)

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

Westgate Vegas opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 16 currently has the Chargers listed as a 5-point favorite against the Ravens, who will likely come into Carson with Lamar Jackson as their starting QB unless he struggles against Tampa Bay this week. The Chiefs will be back home in prime time as they visit playoff hopeful Seattle, which has been made an early 1-point home favorite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DB Eric Berry will play his first game tonight since rupturing his Achilles in Week 1 last season. According to reports, he will be on a "pitch count".
Pointspread: Chiefs -3.5
Total: 54

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By: Brandon DuBreuil



TRIPLING DOWN ON THE CHIEFS

Earlier in the week, we suggested the Over for Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards total and for Travis Kelce to go Over 0.5 touchdown receptions, and we’re going to triple-down by backing Patrick Mahomes.

The Chargers are not a great matchup for opposing quarterbacks, but does that really matter for Mahomes? L.A. is ranked ninth in passing DVOA and is giving up just 224.8 passing yards per game (seventh-best in the NFL), but last week Mahomes went on the road to face a Ravens defense ranked fourth in passing DVOA and third in passing yards against and dropped 377 passing yards.

Mahomes didn’t have a huge yardage day when these teams met back in Week 1 but he did throw for 256 yards on 27 attempts (9.48 yards per attempt) and threw four touchdowns. There’s also a lot to like about Mahomes in primetime as he threw for 352 yards on Sunday Night Football in Week 6 and 478 yards on Monday Night Football in Week 11. We’re looking for some more offensive fireworks out of Arrowhead tonight and we’re taking the Over for his passing yards total of 303.5.


BERRY’S RETURN

One of the biggest storylines of tonight’s game in K.C. is the return of safety Eric Berry, who makes his season debut after rupturing his Achilles in Week 1 of last season. Berry is a massive upgrade for the Chiefs defense, as he allowed just 0.38 yards per coverage snap in 2015 and 2016, as opposed to the 0.60 and 0.59 marks that the current safeties are allowing in 2018. While he may be on a snap count tonight, his return will at least provide a huge emotional boost for the Chiefs.

This brings us to Phillip Rivers, who has been fantastic this season, but not so great at Arrowhead Stadium over the course of his career. In his last four games in K.C., Rivers is averaging just 256 passing yards per game while throwing two touchdowns and six interceptions.

The Chiefs defense is weak in 2018 but it has been much better at home (18.7 points against) than on the road (33.7). Rivers will be forced into a ton of passes tonight as he’s without his top two running backs and could be chasing points in a game with a total set at 53.5. We’re thinking Kansas City’s defense steps up tonight and manages to get its hands on one of Rivers’ passes, something that has happened multiple times in his last few trips to Arrowhead. Take the Over 0.5 on Rivers’ interception total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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Tommy King Wins NBA ORLANDO MAGIC ‑5.5