Service Plays Saturday 12/15/18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Liener

2500* CFB Georgia Southern -3
500* NFL Over 46 Browns/Broncos
100* NFL Over 44 Texans/Jets
100* CFB North Texas +7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Anthony Michael

SPECIAL 5* NFL WINNER

#303 Houston Texans -6 (4:30 est) NFL Network

Love the Texans here since they will be fired up for a win coming off of a loss at home that broke their long winning streak and they get to take on the Jets who are absolutely pitiful right now. The Jets are just 2-11 ATS in regular season Saturday games and they have been getting destroyed in the yardage battle over the past several games. Houston has covered 3 of their last 4 road games and their only non-cover was a 2 point win as a 3 point favorite. Take the Texans here to get this big win and cover.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King creole


Analysis:

Saturday, Dec. 15th
Day One of the College Bowls
LAS VEGAS BOWL
#205-206
3:30pm ET / 12:30pm PT
Arizona State Sun Devils vs Fresno State Bulldogs
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

The star system is merely based on the site. He sells at Pregame (2*) and Playbook (3*)

Saturday, Dec. 15th
Day One of the College Bowls
LAS VEGAS BOWL
#205-206
3:30pm ET / 12:30pm PT
Arizona State Sun Devils vs Fresno State Bulldogs
3*** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

We talked about this year’s Las Vegas Bowl pretty extensively on this week’s Marc Lawrence ‘Against the Spread’ podcast. And after doing a few more days of research, we’re confident that this is the BEST Total on Day One of the Bowls. The OU line between Arizona State and Fresno State opened at 52.5 points. As we type this writeup on Thursday afternoon, the OU action is pretty one-side. 90% to 04% of the early money is on the OVER… and 68-70% of all early tickets are also on the OVER. As a result, the line has risen ti the current number (as of Thursday afternoon) of 54.5 points. We have no problem going the other way. In fact, you may want to hold off on making your move until game day. There is a good chance that the OU line will go up even further in the next 48 hours. So a sharp OU bettor will continue to monitor the line movement… shopper the BEST line… and then strike when the line reaches its zenith (55-56 points?).

Arizona State went 6-6 O/U this season. Average points per game: 30.87. Average points per game allowed: 25.1. Nothing very revealing in those numbers. Except that they DID go 2-5 O/U this season when tabbed as an underdog (they are currently +5 in this game). What IS significant is the last 13 times that the Sun Devils faced Mountain West Conference opponent, they have gone 3-9-1 O/U (75% Under). On the flip side, Fresno State was one of the BEST Under teams in all of College Football this season. In fact, they were the #2 Under team in the nation (#1 Under team was North Texas at 1-11 O/U). In their lined games, the Bulldogs went 2-10 O/U this year. Average points per game: 34.9. Average points per game allowed: 13.7. That’s not a misprint. Fresno allowed less points per game this season than EVERY other team in College Football (130 of ‘em) except for Mississippi State (12.0 ppg allowed). These numbers are not a surprise. Head Coach Jeff Tedford is a big-time defensive guy who made his mark as a great UNDER coach when he was at California. In his two seasons at Fresno State, they have gone 4-19-1 O/U in their lined regular season games!

Sealing the deal for us on Day One of the Bowls is the fact that’s ASU’s BEST offensive player is taking this game OFF. That’s right. The most dangerous weapon on the Sun Devil’s team is standout Wide Receiver N’Keal Harry. He figures to be a first-round draft pick in next year’s NFL draft… and has the potential to be a game-breaker in Pro Football. His numbers this season were extremely strong. 73 receptions for 1088 yards and 9 TD’s. The next best guy on the Sun Devil’s team had only 39 catches for 411 yards and 1 TD (Kyle Williams). So with their main man taking the game of, we figure to see a lot of running back Eno Benjamin (277 att / 1524 yards / 5.5 yards per rush). That suits us just fine.

The pairing of Arizona State’s youthful defense and Fresno State’s DOMINANT defense should turn this Las Vegas Bowl into a GRIND-IT-OUT affair. The first team to each 20 points might very well be the ‘Victor’. The Bulldogs of Fresno State are pretty well suited for just such a contest. After all, they just held Boise State to only 16 points on Boise’s HOME field two weeks ago in the MWC Championship game. They shut down Boise senior QB Brett Rypien, and held him down to his WORST start of the 2018 season (15 for 31 / only 125 passing yards). In their last five games, Fresno finished the year with 5 STRAIGHT Unders in a row. Our database models and simulations have this game ending with a final score of Fresno State 27 - Arizona State 20. That’s about 7 to 7.5 points LESS than the current number of 54.5. And that triggers a normal 3*** Play for our service.

Victor King

[KTWSports]

Worlds Worst Picker NCAAB

Tennessee -8.5
ND +5.5
NC State -4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe
Prineton -3.5
Browns +2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Primetime Sports Picks For 12/15/18

4 Unit --> Middle Tennessee +6.5 over Appalachian St. (NCAAF)
3 Unit --> Louisiana Tech/Louisiana-Lafayette OVER 157 (NCAAB)
3 Unit --> Cleveland/Denver UNDER 46 (NFL)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

From Northcoast group of handicappers:

------------------------------------
Great Lake Sports

CBB
3* #630 Wichita State -8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INSIDER SPORTS REPORT

Premier Picks® For 12/15/18

5* Eastern Michigan/Georgia Southern OVER 45 (NCAAF)
Range: 43.5 to 47.5

3* Cleveland +2.5 over Denver (NFL)
Range: +4 to PK

3* Middle Tennessee +6.5 over Appalachian St. (NCAAF)
Range: +8.5 to +4.5

3* California-Poly/California OVER 135 (NCAAB)
Range: 133.5 to 137.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE

Picks For 12/15/18

4* Middle Tennessee/Appalachian St. OVER 47.5 (NCAAF)

3* North Texas +7 over Utah St. (NCAAF)

3* Boston -2 over Detroit (NBA)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pointwise phones

4-middle tennessee st
3-fresno st
3- cleveland browns
2-ul lafayette

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Analytical NBA Totals Bets

12/15/18 2 Plays:

1 unit Bos/Det under 212
1 unit Hou/Mem over 202.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rochester-Titans
E KY +18

[pirrana]

ANY FAT JACK TODAY?? TIA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant


SATURDAY, December 15, 2018
College Football -- New Orleans Bowl -- 9 PM ET
[209] Middle Tennessee State vs [210] Appalachian State
PLAY: [209] MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE +7 (-115)
BET SIZE: 4%


Appy State head coach Scott Satterfield is headed to Louisville, leaving assistant head coach/defensive line coach Matt Ivey to steer the ship for this matchup. Satterfield led Appy State to a 40-11 record since the start of the 2015 season, so his presence and decision-making/playcalling will be missed here. MTS will have the best player on the field in record-breaking QB Brent Stockstill. This will be Stockstill's final collegiate game, so you know he'll be more than ready to go. Doesn't hurt that he has the added motivation of wanting to give his dad, MTS head coach Rick Stockstill, one last bowl victory. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE pull the upset, so I'll gladly grab the full TD with a very live dog.


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NBA --9:05 PM ET
[513] Los Angeles Clippers at [514] Oklahoma City Thunder
PLAY: UNDER 226.5 (-110)
BET SIZE: 4%


My basketball totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data, history involving similar games, and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.


Projected Points Scored = 221 (Thunder 114, Clippers 107)


4% play at 225 or higher
3% play at 224 or 224.5
No play below 224


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College Basketball --11 PM ET
[675] LSU at [676] Saint Mary's CA
PLAY: UNDER 149 (-108)
BET SIZE: 4%


My basketball totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data, history involving similar games, and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.


Projected Points Scored = 143 (LSU 73, Saint Mary's CA 70)


4% play at 147 or higher
3% play at 146 or 146.5
No play below 146

[uwinnow]

North Coast 3* UNDER Browns Game Marquee triple UNDER Fresno St Game 3* Mid tenn St, E Mich