Saturday 1-12-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Total Talk - DP Saturday
Chris David

Wild Card Recap

The 'under' run in the Wild Card round continued last week as the low side produced a 3-1 mark and it could've easily been 4-0. For bettors playing the 'over' in the Seahawks-Cowboys, accept our congratulations and the same time we offer apologies to those who played the 'under' in the Saturday night tilt. Including those results, the 'under' is now 20-7-1 (74%) in the Wild Card round over the last eight postseasons.

Divisional Playoff History

The 'over' went 3-1 in the Divisional Playoff round last season and is on a 6-2 run (75%) the previous two years in this round. There were certainly a couple lucky tickets to the high side, which included last year's Mircale in Minnesota, plus the Titans tacked on a meaningless score in their loss to New England. Speaking of the Patriots, they will be making their eighth straight appearance in this round while both the Saints and Eagles are back for the second consecutive postseason. Looking below, the 'over' has connected at 62.5 percent (15-9) over the past six seasons.



For the playoffs, I'm going to break down every game and offer up my quick handicap and predictions for all the matchups. For those keeping track, we split last week (3-3) and while I was fortunate to cash the 'over' in the Seahawks-Cowboys, that Colts Team Total 'over' (24) was tough to stomach. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Saturday, Jan. 12

Indianapolis at Kansas City (NBC, 4:35 p.m. ET)

The Divisional Playoff round is expected to begin with a shootout from Kansas City. BookMaker.eu sent out this total at 55 ½ and it was quickly pushed up and sits at 57 as of Thursday. These teams met in the 2013-14 postseason and the Colts rallied past the Chiefs for a 45-44 win at home and the ‘over’ (47 ½) was never in doubt. Coincidentally it was the first season for Kansas City head coach Andy Reid and his first playoff game with the club. Fast forward to 2019 and Reid still hasn’t found success with the Chiefs in the postseason with the club going 1-4 during his tenure.

Will that change this Saturday? You have to think they get over the edge sooner or later and fortunately they come into this matchup with an explosive attack. Kansas City finished the regular season with the top-ranked scoring offense at 35.3 points per game and it also led the league in total offense too with 425.6 yards per game.

Second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes had an incredible season, throwing for 5,381 yards and 50 touchdowns. The KC offense is loaded and it certainly needed to be since the defense (26.3 PPG) remains to be an issue. To put things in perspective, the Chiefs scored 37.5 PPG in their four losses.

Those high scoring numbers led to a 10-6 ‘over’ mark for Kansas City but the ‘under’ went 5-3 at Arrowhead Stadium. While the Chiefs defense wasn’t strong overall, they had solid numbers (18 PPG) at home but of the eight opponents that visited KC, only two made the playoffs (Ravens, Chargers) and they averaged 26.5 PPG.

Including last Saturday’s 21-7 result at Houston, the Colts have seen the ‘under’ go 9-8 this season. The Indianapolis defense (20.6 PPG) has put up strong numbers this season, especially down the stretch. In their last eight games, the defense has surrendered 14 PPG and that’s led to a 6-2 ‘under’ record.

Handicapper Paul Bovi wasn’t as high on the Colts unit. He explained, “The Colts have been very poor at times this season, most notably against the pass. (Sam) Darnold, Eli (Manning) and (Blake) Bortles combined to complete 75-of-100 for 900 yards along with five touchdowns and two picks. Here they face the top-ranked offense in the AFC led by the MVP favorite.”

Mahomes should win the honor as the top player but will he succumb to the pressure in his first playoff start? In the Wild Card round, three QBs making their playoff debut went 0-3 and they combined to score 39 points and only six of those points came in the first-half. Just like Mahomes, all of those guys (Watson, Jackson, Trubisky) all had the benefit of playing at home.

Colts QB Andrew Luck has plenty of playoff experience and last week’s win over Houston improved his overall record to 4-3 in the postseason, which includes a 2-3 mark on the road. The ‘under’ has gone 5-2 in those games.

It’s been noted this week that Kansas City hasn’t won a home playoff game since 1994 and it will be looking to snap a six-game postseason skid at Arrowhead. During this losing streak, the Chiefs have averaged 15.3 PPG and that’s led to a 5-1 ‘under’ mark. The expectations have certainly changed with this Kansas City squad, evident by this week’s team total on the Chiefs (30 ½).

Fearless Prediction: While some pundits believe defenses plays a factor in the playoffs, be aware that the last five NFL playoff totals that closed in the fifties or higher saw the ‘over’ go 5-0. Luck and the Colts made a statement early last week with a quick 21 points and then they milked the clock. I don’t see the same scenario playing out in this spot. Kansas City will score and my guess is at least five times. I believe the Colts can match that number as well. Barring an inordinate amount of field goals, both teams should get in or close to the thirties and my lean is the game Over (57).


Dallas at L.A. Rams (FOX, 8:15 p.m. ET)

This total opened 50 and the number has dropped to 49 ½ as of Thursday at the offshore book and most Las Vegas betting shops as well. Even though the ‘over’ luckily connected last week for the Cowboys, the club has leaned to the ‘under’ this season (9-8) and the majority of those tickets have come on the road.

The Dallas offense didn’t travel well (17.2 PPG) this season and that resulted in a 3-5 record and 6-2 ‘under’ mark. If you take away the 36-35 meaningless win at the N.Y. Giants in Week 17, Dallas averaged 15.5 PPG. Also, the Cowboys averaged 14 PPG against playoff teams on the road and they went 1-3 in those games while the ‘under’ went 3-1.

While the Dallas away trend could have you leaning low on Saturday night, the Rams angle at home would make you think otherwise. Los Angeles has seen its total results end in a stalemate (8-8) this season but they produced a 6-2 ‘over’ mark at home. The offense averaged 37.1 PPG in Los Angeles, which was the top mark in the league.

Defensively, the unit for Los Angeles (28.1 PPG) struggled at the Coliseum and it was diced up by quality opponents. Versus playoff teams, the Rams allowed 33.8 PPG and the ‘over’ cashed in all four of those games. Plus, signal callers Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers helped the Vikings and Packers to put up 31 and 27 respectively at Los Angeles.

Do I think Dallas QB Dak Prescott is in that class? No and in last week’s installment I mentioned that he’s (Dak) not the key to the Cowboys offense rather running back Ezekiel Elliott. Including the Wild Card win over Seattle, Dallas is 7-1 this season when he gets 20-plus carries and the lone loss came by three points in overtime. In those games, they’re averaging 25.1 PPG and the ‘over’ is now 6-2.

Last Saturday, Elliott had 26 carries for 137 yards last week in the win and Dallas ended up with 24 points and they left some off the board as Prescott was picked off in the endzone. Knowing the Rams are ranked 23rd against the run (122.3 YPG), a heavy dose of Elliott should be expected.

In last year’s playoffs, the Falcons executed that plan perfectly and they upset the Rams 26-13 in the Wild Card round as six-point road underdogs. Atlanta ran the ball 39 times for 124 yards and dominated the time of possession (37-23 minutes). It was a humbling loss for the Rams, especially for head coach Sean McVay.

Will he turtle up again if this year’s Rams get punched in the mouth again? That Atlanta defense was one really good last season and this Dallas unit has certainly shown the ability to launch haymakers. The Cowboys were ranked seven in total defense (327 YPG) and eighth in scoring (22 PPG).

These teams met in the 2017 regular season and Los Angeles captured a 35-31 win at Dallas and the ‘over’ (50 ½) cashed easily.

Fearless Prediction: McVay’s name has been tossed around all week, largely due to his apparent influence in recent NFL coaching hires. Even though this is only his second playoff game, it’s a big one for him and there will be deserved criticism if they lose and the offense lays another egg. I don’t see that happening, actually the opposite. Los Angeles has dominated teams at home and I believe the extra week will be key. In two games after the bye, the Rams have scored 51 and 30 points under McVay. I believe Los Angles will get in the neighborhood again and I’m buying the Rams Team Total Over (28 ½). I would’ve leaned to the ‘over’ in the game as well but I don’t have as much confidence in the Dallas offense on the road.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Underdogs: Divisional Round Weekend pointspread picks and predictions
Jason Logan

“We’ve seen this movie before…”

That was the reaction from most after Nick Foles once again stepped under center for the Philadelphia Eagles late in the season, sparked a surge, and stole a huge playoff Wild Card win in Chicago last Sunday. It’s very similar to last year’s formula, which found Foles standing in a sea of confetti holding the Lombardi Trophy when it was all said and done.

You know what other type of movie we’ve seen before? Those crazy body-swapping movies. Films like “Freaky Friday” (1976 or 2003 with Lindsay Lohan), 2002’s Rob Schneider vehicle “The Hot Chick”, or 2011’s “The Change-Up”.

One person magically swaps bodies with another person – often their complete opposite – after some traumatic occurrence, like a big fight or peeing in a magic fountain or beating the living snot out of your opponent 48-7 in Week 11.

That’s right: the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints swapped… football bodies… during that one-sided smackdown by the Saints in the Big Easy back in mid-November. Perhaps it was some of that famed Louisiana Voodoo, like in “The Princess and The Frog” that conjured up the old switchero.

Ever since then, Philadelphia has looked like a true defending champion – not how it looked in the opening 11 weeks of football – with six wins in its last seven games (5-2 ATS), and that lone loss coming in overtime against Dallas in a contest that the Eagles really should’ve won.

While Foles is again playing well for a “backup”, the true hero of this movie is the Philly defense. That may not set the box office on fire but it sure as hell covers the spread, especially with the Eagles getting eight points against that team with whom they switched bodies.

New Orleans got the short end of the stick in the body swap, picking up where the 4-6 Eagles left off. After blasting the rival Falcons in Week 12, the Saints slowly watched its offensive prowess stripped away as opposing defenses figured out the best way to counter their high-powered attack. Dallas, Carolina and Tampa Bay (for a half at least) were able to get Drew Brees on his heels with strong interior pass rushes, disrupting the rhythm of this once-mighty offense.

Yes, those three games came on the road, but they very much laid the blueprint for how to slow down the Saints and were part of a 1-4 ATS skid to end the season. Brees has passed for only three touchdowns in his last four games, with as many interceptions as TDs. That’s saying something considering he had 29 TD passes and only two INTs before the Week 13 loss at Dallas. And you want to hear something creepy? From Week 1 to Week 11, Philadelphia averaged 20.5 points per game. From Week 12 to Week 17 (post-body swap), the Saints averaged 21 points an outing. Dear gawd, someone ring "Unsolved Mysteries".

Despite earning the top seed in the NFC, New Orleans is not playing at a very high level and that comes at the wrong time against the wrong team. I’m confident the Saints will somehow get their bodies back when the final whistle blows Sunday night, but not before the Eagles keep this closer than the oddsmakers expect.

Pick: Philadelphia +8


Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5, 50)

When looking back at the 2018 L.A. Rams, bettors may want to designate two variations of this team: the pre-Kansas City Shootout Rams and the post-Kansas City Shootout Rams. Since that memorable Week 11 Monday nighter, which the Rams won, Los Angeles hasn’t been quite right.

The Rams are 3-2 SU and ATS in that span, with “marquee” wins and covers versus the Lions, Cardinals and Niners, but took two on the chin from the Eagles and Bears – two elite defenses who also wore down the Rams with steady rushing attacks which allowed them to control the football and keep L.A. and all its offensive weapons off the field.

In fact, look at the Rams’ three losses on the year and they all came against teams with solid stop units (at the time) who could also ground and pound, winning the time of possession battle. Los Angeles gave up 33:41 to the New Orleans (141 yards rushing), 36:49 to Chicago (194 yards rushing), and 31:36 to Philadelphia (111 yards rushing). The Rams face a similar foe capable of both shutting them down on both sides of the ball.

Dallas is a TOP beast. It owned the football for 34:50 in the Wild Card win over Seattle and throws the NFL’s rushing leader at a defense that gives up an NFL-worst 5.1 yards per carry. Ezekiel Elliot is coming off a 26-run, 137-yard effort on the ground (adding another 32 yards through the air) and picks up 4.8 yards per attempt on the season. New Flash: not possessing the football makes it very difficult to cover big spreads like this, even with L.A. playing better in the Coliseum.

If the Cowboys are going to have a shot of knocking off the No. 2 seed on the road – or at least staying within the +7.5 – they must limit Los Angeles’ touches and get them off the field on third downs. The Rams have one of the best third-down conversion rates in the league, but Dallas’ defense has been exceptional at pulling the power cord on drives in recent games. The Cowboys can't afford to get into a shootout Saturday night.

Pick: Dallas +7.5

Last week: 2-0 ATS
Season: 33-19-1 ATS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

By: Brandon DuBreuil




BACKFIELD QUESTIONS IN KC

Spencer Ware (hamstring) is questionable for Saturday, though he seems likely to suit up after having the bye as an extra week to rest his injured hamstring. Ware actually hasn’t played since Week 14, allowing Damien Williams to emerge and shine as the Chiefs’ top back.

It’s tough to say how Ware will be used on Sunday. He was supposed to take over feature-back duties after Kareem Hunt’s release, but Williams looked like a star in Weeks 15 and 16, posting over 100 yards from scrimmage against the Chargers and Seahawks before having his snaps dialed back in Week 17’s blowout of Oakland.

Even if Ware is active, it’s hard to imagine he eats too many of Williams’ snaps on Saturday as he was already starting to take over lead-back duties when both were healthy. Ware played 49 snaps to Williams’ 19 when both were healthy in Week 13, but the following week it was Williams who held a 43 to 41 edge in snaps. It will be a tough rushing matchup against Indianapolis’ defense that ranked fourth in rushing DVOA, but we envision Williams getting into the end zone, something he did six times between Weeks 13-17. We’re backing him to score a touchdown at any time.


NO QUESTIONS FOR KELCE

Earlier in the week, we talked about how Sammy Watkins might be in tough against a Colts defense that is very tough on wide receivers. The catch, however, is that Indianapolis is soft against tight ends. We brought this to light last week in backing Ryan Griffen and he would’ve hit his Over had Deshaun Watson not overthrown him when he was wide open for a long touchdown (but we’re not bitter).

Indy gave up the most catches (6.3) and yards (63) to tight ends during the regular season and ranked 29th in DVOA to the position, allowing an average of 7.9 passes and 76.2 yards. Nothing really needs to be said about Travis Kelce: He’s one of the top tight ends in football and averaged 6.4 catches for 83.5 yards per game. He’s in a great spot for a huge day on Saturday and we’re backing the Over 84.5 on his receiving yards total.


JEFFERY LIMITED

Eagles receiver Alshon Jeffery was listed as limited in practice on Thursday with a rib injury that he apparently suffered on Wild Card weekend. He was also listed as limited for Thursday’s walkthrough session, though there doesn’t seem to be any concern for his availability on Sunday.

Jeffery has been hot since Nick Foles took over in Week 15, posting receiving lines of 8-160, 3-82, and 5-59-1 to finish off the regular season before going for 6-82 last week in the Wild Card game. He only grabbed four catches for 33 yards when the Eagles visited the Saints back in Week 11, but the Saints do not have a great pass defense with a rank of 22 in passing DVOA. New Orleans gave up some big days to perimeter receivers down the stretch (think Antonio Brown’s 14-185-2 in Week 16 and Julio Jones’ 11-147-0 in Week 12) and Jeffery could be in line for a nice Divisional Round game. We’re backing the Over 65.5 for his receiving yards total.


MCVAY TALKS GURLEY

Sean McVay talked about Todd Gurley and his knee injury on Thursday after practice. “He looks like Todd,” McVay told reporters. “He looks like the explosive, great back we’re used to.” Gurley was also removed from the injury report altogether as it appears he’ll be at full speed on Sunday against the Cowboys.

Earlier in the week, we suggested backing Gurley’s Under as we didn’t think he’d be at 100 percent and Dallas has the fifth-ranked defense in rushing DVOA. However, we’re going to flip here and look towards backing the Over on Gurley’s rushing total. Full credit goes to a reader who pointed out that Dallas’ rush defense is not nearly as tough on the road as it is at home. In fact, Dallas allowed 422 rushing yards and four touchdowns 84 carries for 5.02 yards per carry in its last four road games. Game script is also in Gurley’s favor as a 7-point home favorite. Gurley’s prop markets aren’t open yet, likely due to the early-week concerns over his knee, but we’ll be backing the Over on his rushing yards total once it is listed.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $23000 Class Rating: 54

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1 DARK SPIRIT 7/2

# 3 UNCOMPLICATED 3/1

# 10 MINTAPPEARENCE 4/1

DARK SPIRIT looks very strong to best this field. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the best class numbers of this group. Opposing a much less demanding field than last time out. UNCOMPLICATED - There is a decent chance that this entry's late pace will improve with second time Lasix. Delhomme has a very solid win percent with horses travelling in dirt sprint races. MINTAPPEARENCE - Breaux is very serious with this one, wheeling her back almost immediately.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 77

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. FOUR YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $22,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 GOTHIC GIRL 3/1

# 2 SCOTT'S BEST BETH 9/5

# 5 LIL INDIAN ANNIE 4/1

My pick for this event is GOTHIC GIRL. Tough to pass on this filly with Gomez in the saddle. Put up a very good Equibase Speed Fig last time out. Has to be considered here on the basis of the figures in the speed department alone. SCOTT'S BEST BETH - Has very strong Equibase Speed Figs and has to be considered for a bet in here. Had one of the top speed figures of this field in her last race. LIL INDIAN ANNIE - Will probably be one of the front-runners of the pack going into the halfway point of the competition. This equine is prominent in this group in earnings per start at the distance/surface.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs
Louisiana Downs - Race 1

Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta


SO $5,000 • 250 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $7,300 • Post: 1:00P
QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $3,500 OR LESS IN 2018-2019 OR CLAIMING PRICE $5,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * MERCI BUGS: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. BJS CARTEL CASH: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMa ster Power Rating. BABY DREAMER: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. AMERICAN LEGION: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. EYES ON BRANT: Horse ranks in the top three in avera ge Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6
MERCI BUGS
5/2

5/1
4
BJS CARTEL CASH
3/1

6/1
5
BABY DREAMER
9/5

8/1
1
AMERICAN LEGION
9/2

8/1
2
EYES ON BRANT
10/1

10/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
AMERICAN LEGION
1

9/2
Average
73

67

0.0

0.0

0.0
2
EYES ON BRANT
2

10/1
Average
74

62

4.3

0.0

0.0
3
MRS PIGEON
3

10/1
Average
73

62

0.0

0.0

0.0
4
BJS CARTEL CASH
4

3/1
Average
72

67

5.7

0.0

0.0
5
BABY DREAMER
5

9/5
Average
77

65

0.0

0.0

0.0
6
MERCI BUGS
6

5/2
Fast
74

72

0.0

0.0

0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Laurel - Race #3 - Post: 1:30pm - Stakes - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 103 What A Summer S.

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 BEHRNIK'S BANK (ML=8/1)
#2 LATE NIGHT POW WOW (ML=4/5)
#5 MOONLIT SONG (ML=5/1)


BEHRNIK'S BANK - Based on the TrackMaster data I've reviewed, this mare should run well off the layoff. I think the shorter distance will help this mare stay the trip. LATE NIGHT POW WOW - Won her last after shipping in. I like her again. This horse has done very well at this distance. I like to see consistency in a racehorse. Look at this filly's PPs. Almost always in the money. This equine is tops in earnings per race. She looks solid in today's race. I like the case that this filly's last speed fig, 102, is tops in this group. MOONLIT SONG - I like this mare a lot here. She shows a lot of consistency, finishing in the money frequently.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 DEVINE MISCHIEF (ML=9/2), #3 SHE'S STUNNING (ML=6/1),

DEVINE MISCHIEF - No favorable outcomes for this horse in a sprint race over the last couple of months tells me that this filly is in a difficult situation This pony ran a most unsatisfactory speed figure last out. She shouldn't improve and will probably get beat in today's race running that rating. SHE'S STUNNING - This mare notched a speed figure in her last event which probably isn't good enough in today's race.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #6 BEHRNIK'S BANK on the win end if we get at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,5,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,5,6] with [2,5,6] with [2,3,4,5,6] with [2,3,4,5,6] Total Cost: $36

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course
Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 6

Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)


Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 2:34P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. HICKORY ISLAND is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HICKORY ISLAND: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distanc e/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
8
HICKORY ISLAND
5/2

2/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
8
HICKORY ISLAND
8

5/2
Front-runner
82

83

86.0

67.8

64.8
5
LOOKS LIKE SIMON
5

2/1
Front-runner
65

78

79.8

46.8

40.8
2
BUCK ISLAND DAY
2

10/1
Front-runner
64

53

73.4

45.2

28.2
6
PRIZA N A HALF
6

15/1
Alternator/Stalker
77

76

58.2

63.4

56.9
9
AIRFARE
9

20/1
Trailer
51

44

25.8

49.8

35.3
4
MUSIAL
4

8/1
Trailer
63

63

22.1

52.4

42.9
7
NETAS
7

10/1
Alternator/Trailer
73

62

41.4

62.0

53.5
1
STOMP MY GRAPES
1

15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
66

54

58.8

44.8

30.3
3
TYPE SETTER
3

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
48

51

52.8

35.8

18.3
11
EL GORDO NAVAS
11

6/1
Alternator/Non-contender
72

64

45.2

42.7

30.7
10
DENUNCIATION
10

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
44

22

41.2

15.6

0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Santa Anita Park

01/12/19, SA, Race 4, 2.02 PT
6 1/2F [Turf About] 1.10.04 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $55,000.
DOWNHILL TURF FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD
$1 Exacta /$0.50Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double - $0.50 Rolling Pick Three (Races 4-5-6) - $0.20 Rainbow Pick Six Starts (Races 4-9) - $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.) / $1 Rolling Super High 5 / $2 HRR - (RED 5,6: 4/5. BLK 1,3,7,8: 1/1. GRN 2,4: 12/1.)
Top Horse - Races 34, Win Percent 26.47, $1 ROI 1.50, For Race Category MSW_MCLM Turf
Best in race - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer FLAGS
100.0000 3 Emrata 5-1 Rosario J Miller Peter TS
099.7167 6 Marine Layer 5/2 Van Dyke D Proctor Thomas F. EW
098.4040 5 Nomizar 3-1 Bejarano R O'Neill Doug F. FL
096.6425 1 Shes All Woman 5-1 Figueroa H O'Neill Doug F. C
096.4883 7 Hollywood Girl 5-1 Smith M E Shirreffs John A. J
095.4734 8 Sapori Girl 6-1 Talamo J Yakteen Tim
094.9367 2 Samandah 12-1 Atzeni A Papaprodromou George
093.3494 4 Full Eclipse 15-1 Blanc B Cortez John E.
If Race Is Off Turf
Top Horse - Races 68, Win Percent 30.88, $1 ROI 0.88, For Race Category MSW_MCLM Dirt
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer FLAGS
100.0000 6 Marine Layer 5/2 Van Dyke D Proctor Thomas F. EW
098.6390 5 Nomizar 3-1 Bejarano R O'Neill Doug F. SFL
097.3097 3 Emrata 5-1 Rosario J Miller Peter T
096.4192 1 Shes All Woman 5-1 Figueroa H O'Neill Doug F. C
096.1507 7 Hollywood Girl 5-1 Smith M E Shirreffs John A. J
095.8132 8 Sapori Girl 6-1 Talamo J Yakteen Tim
094.5985 4 Full Eclipse 15-1 Blanc B Cortez John E.
093.6918 2 Samandah 12-1 Atzeni A Papaprodromou George

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs

01/12/19, TAM, Race 6, 3.08 ET
1 1/8M [Turf] 1.46.01 ALLOWANCE. Purse $22,500.
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) - Pick 3 ($.50 minimum) (Races 6-7-8) / Pick 5 ($.50 minimum) (Races 6-10) - Super High 5
Top Horse - Races 33, Win Percent 21.21, $1 ROI 1.97, For Race Category Non-Maiden Turf
Best in race - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer FLAGS
100.0000 6 And Won 6-1 Gallardo A A Granitz Anthony J. T
099.9104 10 Shana Tova 4-1 Camacho S Lopez Bernardo G. FE
099.5839 9 Funny Questions 6-1 Morales P Bennett Dale W
098.9165 13 Stock Trade 6-1 Gallardo A A Mott William I.
098.8914 12 Fred'stwirlincandy(b-) 5/2 Cannon D Correas. IV Ignacio
098.5346 2 Pirate Beach 8-1 Ferrer J C Sienkewicz William M. J
098.0332 1 New Jersey John 5-1 Martinez W Dini Michael
097.7971 4 Readthecliffnotes 15-1 Cotto. Jr. P L Boyce Michele SC
096.1855 7 A Girls Bestfriend 15-1 Allen M Roberson Don L
096.0756 5 Lone Sentry 15-1 Centeno D Rubley Kelly
094.3607 11 Spectacular Plum 20-1 Ulloa A P Carvajal. Jr. Luis
094.1799 3 Simmardstrike 30-1 Alencar W Negrete Javier
093.1136 14 Logic 10-1 Mata F Alvarado Juan
090.0532 8 Invasors Wind 30-1 Garcia J A Westlye Kenneth
If Race Is Off Turf
Top Horse - Races 99, Win Percent 26.26, $1 ROI 0.64, For Race Category Non-Maiden Dirt
Rating Pgm# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer FLAGS
100.0000 9 Funny Questions 6-1 Morales P Bennett Dale W
099.7332 6 And Won 6-1 Gallardo A A Granitz Anthony J. T
099.1521 13 Stock Trade 6-1 Gallardo A A Mott William I.
098.8836 12 Fred'stwirlincandy(b-) 5/2 Cannon D Correas. IV Ignacio FE
098.7063 2 Pirate Beach 8-1 Ferrer J C Sienkewicz William M. S
098.0962 1 New Jersey John 5-1 Martinez W Dini Michael
098.0589 10 Shana Tova 4-1 Camacho S Lopez Bernardo G. J
097.1638 5 Lone Sentry 15-1 Centeno D Rubley Kelly
096.3829 7 A Girls Bestfriend 15-1 Allen M Roberson Don L
096.1036 4 Readthecliffnotes 15-1 Cotto. Jr. P L Boyce Michele C
094.7854 11 Spectacular Plum 20-1 Ulloa A P Carvajal. Jr. Luis
093.3077 3 Simmardstrike 30-1 Alencar W Negrete Javier
092.6523 14 Logic 10-1 Mata F Alvarado Juan
090.8776 8 Invasors Wind 30-1 Garcia J A Westlye Kenneth

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turfway Park - Race #5 - Post: 8:12pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $5,100 Class Rating: 74

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 ACES AND EIGHTS (ML=5/2)


ACES AND EIGHTS - Widely used handicapping theory - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. A live one today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 WINTER RAIN (ML=2/1), #2 PRAY FOR KITTEN (ML=3/1), #4 AUSTIN RAY (ML=6/1),

WINTER RAIN - The probable favorite is suspect here with the lack of morning drills. Won't be easy for this horse to beat this bunch off of that last speed fig. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class rating, so put him on the questionable challengers list. PRAY FOR KITTEN - This horse likes to be on the board, but doesn't usually get the job done. Keep out of the top spot. Hard to put your money on this speedball. Too much speed in the affair. AUSTIN RAY - No accomplishments for this mount in a short distance event over the last sixty days tells me that this gelding is in a very difficult circumstance



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #8 ACES AND EIGHTS to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Detroit Pistons vs. LA Clippers Preview and Predictions 2019-01-12

NBA Predictions 11th January 2019 by Gracenote
by Gracenote on 01/11/2019

Blake Griffin got his return to Staples Center out of the way when the Detroit Pistons visited the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday, but Saturday's trip is going to bring another emotional dimension. Griffin will face his former team for the first time on his former home floor when the Pistons visit the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday.

Griffin was drafted No. 1 overall by the Clippers in 2009 and served as the team's franchise player from the time he made his debut in 2010 until he was traded to Detroit last season and is filling the same role with his new team, though the results aren't showing in the win column. The Pistons dropped their last four games and 16 of the last 20, including a 112-102 setback at Sacramento on Thursday with Griffin sitting out to rest. Los Angeles had a three-game winning streak come to an end with a 121-100 setback at Denver on Thursday but is not discouraged. "I love where we're at," Clippers coach Doc Rivers told reporters. "We've had a couple games we haven't played great, tonight was one of them. But overall, most nights we outwork the opponent. Some nights, the shots still don't go in or we don't get stops. I think a lot of our losses are little things defensively. A few nights offensively, but overall I'll take our effort in the 41 games overall."

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, FS Detroit, FS Prime Ticket LINE: Clippers -7

ABOUT THE PISTONS (17-23): Detroit can point to some of its issues but can't seem to fix them, and turnovers are a big problem. "Turnovers ignited that," Pistons Dwane Casey told reporters of a first quarter on Thursday that allowed Sacramento to jump out to a quick lead. "That's the main emphasis on every board we had this morning, every meeting we had. We can't turn the ball over and, lo and behold, a lot of 'em were just ill-advised." Detroit allowed 34 points off 20 turnovers on Thursday, with center Andre Drummond committing seven.



ABOUT THE CLIPPERS (24-17): Los Angeles allowed the Western Conference-best Nuggets to shoot 50.5 percent from the floor and were outscored 66-50 in the paint on Thursday. "I don't think we should be disappointed about anything," center Marcin Gortat told reporters. "I still think there's room to improve, there's a lot of room to improve. Nobody anticipated that we were going to be in the position we are right now, so we should be happy but at the same time not satisfied." The starting backcourt combination of Avery Bradley and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander combined to go 2-of-10 from the floor in the loss while totaling five points.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Pistons C Zaza Pachulia (leg) missed the last six games and is questionable for Saturday.

2. Bradley is averaging 5.4 points on 30.6 percent shooting in five games this month.

3. Los Angeles earned a 108-95 win at Detroit on Feb. 9 - Griffin's first game against his former team.

PREDICTION: Clippers 120, Clippers 105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Miami Heat Preview and Predictions 2019-01-12

NBA PredictionsJan 12th 2019 05:00 pm EST
by Gracenote on 01/11/2019

The Miami Heat managed to cool the Boston Celtics on Thursday and got back to .500 in the process. The Memphis Grizzlies, who visit the Heat on Saturday, are coming off their own impressive victory after snapping a six-game slide with a 96-86 triumph over the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday.

Miami dropped two straight to fall below .500 before finding its form at both ends and getting a double-double from forward/point guard Justise Winslow. "Just trying to do my job as a leader of this team," Winslow, who is starting at point guard with Goran Dragic injured, told reporters after collecting 13 points and 11 assists on Thursday. "Get the guys organized. Get us playing to our identity, which is tough, physical and aggressive. I love filling up the stat sheet. I know I'm capable of doing it, so that felt good tonight." Memphis allowed an average of 109.5 points during its six-game slide but locked down on the defensive end in the win over the Spurs. "I think the defensive intensity that we started with was great," Grizzlies coach J.B. Bickerstaff told reporters. "You think about some of the shots that we blocked from guys that were out of position and saved possessions. We were able to scramble and come up with defensive rebounds and go. That sense of urgency is the way we have to play every single night."

TV: 5 p.m. ET, FS Southeast (Memphis), FS Sun (Miami) LINE: Heat -5

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES (19-22): Center Marc Gasol scored in single digits in back-to-back games before breaking out for 26 points on 9-of-16 shooting and 14 rebounds on Wednesday. "I was trying to be a little more aggressive, obviously, and stay aggressive," Gasol told reporters. "It wasn't just where I had one quarter that I was aggressive, I've got to build on it again and create those habits for the team." Gasol went 3-of-5 from 3-point range in the win while guards Mike Conley, Garrett Temple and Justin Holiday combined to go 0-of-13 from beyond the arc.



ABOUT THE HEAT (20-20): Winslow got some help down the stretch on Thursday from future Hall of Famer Dwyane Wade, who scored 19 points on 8-of-12 shooting in 23 minutes off the bench. Wade scored nine points in a row in the fourth quarter to help put the game away after the Celtics closed the gap to single digits. "At that moment, they had it going," Wade told reporters. "We turned the ball over, they were getting out in transition. You know a good team is going to make a run, so when I came in it was just about settling us in a little bit and then I got some shots to fall, but just the calming factor. I've always talked about that's what I'm here for."

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Heat SG Tyler Johnson went 3-of-5 from 3-point range on Thursday after missing all 11 of his attempts over the previous three contests.

2. Grizzlies SG Dillon Brooks (toe) will sit out the rest of the season after undergoing surgery.

3. Miami earned a 100-97 victory at Memphis on Dec. 14 with Wade sitting out.

PREDICTION: Heat 110, Grizzlies 95

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic Preview and Predictions 2019-01-12

NBA Predictions 11th January 2019 by Gracenote
by Gracenote on 01/11/2019

The Boston Celtics will try to bounce back from their most lopsided loss of the season when they continue a three-game road trip at the Orlando Magic on Saturday. Following a 4-0 homestand in which they outscored opponents by an average of 20.5 points, the Celtics opened the trip with a 115-99 loss at Miami on Thursday.

Boston recorded at least 30 assists in five consecutive games before producing 20 against the Heat, who also enjoyed an easy night on the other end of the floor by making 18-of-39 3-pointers. "They really, really shot it and made big ones when we came back in the second half to stymie that," Celtics coach Brad Stevens told reporters. "But that's a result of being comfortable all night." The Magic will be eager to play on their home floor after capping a 1-5 homestand with a 106-93 loss at Utah on Wednesday. Saturday's tilt begins a stretch in which Orlando - which has lost 12 of 17 overall - plays eight of 12 at home.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, NBCS Boston, FS Florida (Orlando) LINE: Celtics -7.5

ABOUT THE CELTICS (25-16): Boston was able to trim a 25-point deficit down to eight at one point in the third quarter and much of the spark came from rookie center Robert Williams, who saw the team outscore the Heat by 15 points in his 14 minutes of action. "I feel like our energy was down tonight," Williams told reporters. "It wasn't what it needed to be coming from this team. So I just tried to bring energy and get open shots for our scorers." Williams made his only shot and chipped in four rebounds, one steal and one blocked shot, while starting center Al Horford was 1-for-8 from the floor and finished with a minus-26 rating, the worst plus/minus mark of his Celtics career.



ABOUT THE MAGIC (17-24): Orlando blew three double-digit leads in losses on the road trip, including a 21-point advantage in Wednesday's loss to the Jazz, and it hopes to rediscover some toughness at home. "[We've] got to be more gritty," forward Aaron Gordon told reporters Wednesday. "We weren't gritty enough. When they're scoring, we can't let that affect our offense. We got to cut the water off and continue to play our game regardless of the score." D.J. Augustin led the way offensively with 23 points while fellow guard Evan Fournier, who averages 14.7 points, had a season-low one point and failed to make a shot (0-for-8) for the first time since Jan. 4, 2016.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Orlando won the first meeting this season at Boston by a 93-90 margin behind 24 points and 12 rebounds by C Nikola Vucevic.

2. Magic C Mo Bamba (foot) missed Wednesday's loss and is day-to-day.

3. Celtics PG Kyrie Irving scored 22 points Thursday and is shooting 52.3 percent in three games since returning from an eye issue.

PREDICTION: Celtics 109, Magic 103

[Can'tPickAWinner]

San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Preview and Predictions 2019-01-12

NBA Predictions 11th January 2019 by Gracenote
Spurs vs. Thunder Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 01/11/2019

The Oklahoma City Thunder will get a chance to redeem themselves quickly after suffering a crushing double-overtime loss in San Antonio on Thursday. The Thunder will try to exact some revenge when they host the Spurs in the conclusion of a home-and-home set on Saturday.

Thursday's meeting was an instant classic as San Antonio power forward LaMarcus Aldridge scored a career-high 56 points on 20-of-33 shooting while adding nine rebounds and four blocks to lead his team to a 154-147 victory. "Well, he's been a beast all year long," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich told reporters of Aldridge. "He anchors us on both ends of the floor. He's been fantastic, and obviously he had a great night." The Thunder dropped their last three games but was pleased with the effort on Thursday. "It just shows everybody wants to win, that everybody will do whatever it takes to win a basketball game," Oklahoma City star Russell Westbrook told reporters. "It's a tough place to play, a tough night, but we'll see them again on Saturday, so we'll be ready to go."

TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBATV, FS Southwest (San Antonio), FS Oklahoma LINE: Thunder -3.5

ABOUT THE SPURS (25-18): San Antonio shot 36.1 percent from the floor, including 11-of-27 from 3-point range, in a 96-86 loss at Memphis on Wednesday but proved that was a fluke while shooting 56.6 percent the next night. The Spurs went 16-of-19 from 3-point range against the Thunder, setting an NBA record for the highest percentage (84.2) by a team with at least 15 attempts from beyond the arc. "That was fun to be a part of," point guard Patty Mills, who knocked down 3-of-4 from 3-point range, told reporters. "I didn't realize we had been making as many as we made until after the game."



ABOUT THE THUNDER (25-16): Aldridge wasn't the only player making history on Thursday as Westbrook recorded 24 points, a career-high 24 assists and 13 rebounds to mark the second 20-10-20 game of his career. Westbrook is the only player besides Magic Johnson and Oscar Robertson to post multiple 20-10-20 games and he is averaging 21.3 points, 10.8 rebounds and 10.7 assists. "(Westbrook) is one of those dudes, mate, who attracts so much attention," Oklahoma City center Steven Adams told reporters. "He does a good job of finding players and whatnot. You have to respect him because he's a really good player."

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Spurs PG Derrick White scored a career-high 23 points on 10-of-17 shooting on Friday.

2. Adams left Thursday's game with an ankle injury and is day-to-day.

3. San Antonio fell in both of its visits to Oklahoma City last season.

PREDICTION: Thunder 121, Spurs 117