Monday 1-14-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon

Jan 14 '19, 7:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Florida State vs Pittsburgh
Play on: Pittsburgh +6 -110 at Bovada

FREE PLAY on Pittsburgh +6 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins

Jan 14 '19, 7:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Florida State vs Pittsburgh
Play on: Pittsburgh +6 -110 at Bovada

Free Play on Pittsburgh +6 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA

Jan 14 '19, 7:05 PM in 4h
NHL | Blues vs Capitals
Play on: OVER 5½ -115

ASA PLAY ON Free Pick OVER: St Louis at Washington, Monday @ 7:05 PM ET

The St Louis Blues Jake Allen will get the nod tonight in goal since this is the first half of St. Louis' back-to-back situation. That means the Blues red-hot goal-tender Jordan Binnington is expected to play Tuesday against the New York Islanders. Allen has lost his last two starts and he allowed 7 goals on only 31 shots on goal in those two starts. Now Allen has to face the defending Stanley Cup Champion Capitals when Washington is in a foul mood! In other words, the Caps are going to be aggressive here after they lost 2-1 in OT versus Columbus on Saturday plus lost 5-2 at St Louis earlier this month. That sets this one up well for the Capitals to score plenty of goals but don't be surprised if the Blues match the Caps goal for goal. St Louis has won 4 of its last 6 games and has scored 3 or more goals in 5 of their last 6 games. Our forecast here is a 4-3 type game and we'll gladly take advantage of the low total of 5.5 goals posted on this one. Free Pick: OVER at Washington in early evening action Monday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams

Jan 14 '19, 7:30 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | North Carolina A&T vs Maryland-Eastern Shore
Play on: Maryland-Eastern Shore +8 -108 at pinnacle

1* on Maryland-Eastern Shore +8 -108

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Jan 14 '19, 7:35 PM in 4h
NBA | Celtics vs Nets
Play on: Celtics -3 -108 at pinnacle

Jack’s Free Pick Monday: Boston Celtics -3
The Boston Celtics will be highly motivated for a victory tonight off two consecutive road losses to the Heat and Magic. They had gone 15-5 SU & 15-5 ATS in their previous 20 games overall. And now they are getting no respect from oddsmakers as only 3-point favorites over the Nets.
This line has been adjusted too much for the Kyrie Irving injury. The Celtics proved last year they didn’t need Irving to win, and they still don’t need him. Of course, in the playoffs they will be better with him than without him, but in the regular season it really hasn’t mattered.
The Nets have some injury issues of their own. Caris LeVert, Allen Crabbe and Jared Dudley are all out, while Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is questionable. And the Nets certainly haven’t been able to figure out the Celtics and won’t stand much of a chance tonight against this motivated Boston team.
The Celtics are a perfect 10-0 SU in their last 10 meetings with the Nets. And with a 3-point spread, they basically just have to win to cover tonight. Boston is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games playing on one days’ rest. The Celtics are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Nets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet the Celtics Monday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs
Louisiana Downs - Race 1

Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta


Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 57 • Purse: $3,800 • Post: 1:00P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * QUINTTESSENCE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. CARRY ON CURL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equib ase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TF HIGH FLYIN DASH: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TEENTOAS T: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3
QUINTTESSENCE
7/2

9/2
6
CARRY ON CURL
9/5

5/1
4
TF HIGH FLYIN DASH
5/1

6/1
5
TEENTOAST
2/1

9/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
PK FAST KISSES
1

8/1
Average
0

0

3.7

0.0

0.0
2
MAKEMELIKAFERARRI
2

15/1
Slow/Trouble-prone
0

0

7.7

0.0

0.0
3
QUINTTESSENCE
3

7/2
Average
69

65

4.8

0.0

0.0
4
TF HIGH FLYIN DASH
4

5/1
Fast
64

52

3.3

0.0

0.0
5
TEENTOAST
5

2/1
Average
71

47

5.6

0.0

0.0
6
CARRY ON CURL
6

9/5
Average
66

58

5.2

0.0

0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $3500 Class Rating: 71

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 STORMY CALIENTE 4/1

# 7 SAINTLY PRIZE 8/1

# 3 PROVOCATIVES DASHIN 9/2

I think STORMY CALIENTE is a very good choice. Should go to the front end and should never look back. Is a key contender - given the 71 speed figure from his most recent race. Orozco has this gelding running well and is a very good selection based on the quite good speed figures posted in short races recently. PROVOCATIVES DASHIN - Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group as of late. Has run strongly when running a short race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #8 - Post: 4:02pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,100 Class Rating: 84

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#9 CHESTER MON (ML=5/1)
#2 GRITTER MAN (ML=15/1)
#7 MARTINKELLY (ML=4/1)


CHESTER MON - Took a class drop last time around the track at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Johnson keeps him at the same level right here. I think that's a good move. GRITTER MAN - My experienced judgement tells me to be ready for this mount in this event MARTINKELLY - A thoroughbred coming back this promptly after a good outing is a good omen. It looks like Johnson had to know this gelding on December 17th when riding him for the initial time. Back atop again today. Trainer, Ceccato, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 BANGOR RIDGE (ML=7/2), #3 BRONK (ML=9/2), #11 AMERICAN SPARROW (ML=6/1),

BANGOR RIDGE - This morning-line favorite may be out of condition without any recent workouts. BRONK - Way too far back on December 29th for me to bet on at the probable odds in today's sprint contest. Don't believe this racer will do much running in today's race. That last speed fig was pedestrian when compared with today's class rating. AMERICAN SPARROW - This gelding is always in the money, but just doesn't finish first. Tough to wager on him on the top end.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#9 CHESTER MON to win at post-time odds of 5/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
9 with [2,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,7,9] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Portland Meadows
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Allowance - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 86

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 14, 2018 ALLOWED 3 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 3 LOVETHISBAR 2/1

# 6 BETTER IN LEATHER 5/2

# 2 TOUGH RUNNER 4/1

My pick in this event is LOVETHISBAR. A solid 87 avg class figure may give this mare a distinct class edge against this group. Solid average Equibase Speed Figs in dirt route races make this pony a solid contender. Will almost certainly go to the lead and may never look back. BETTER IN LEATHER - Her 80 average has this mare with among the top Equibase speed figs for this event. Knapp has a sound 18 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. TOUGH RUNNER - This mare has been consistently racing well in her latest outings. Could provide positive dividends based on very good recent speed figs with an average of 75.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing
Parx Racing - Race 2

Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta


Claiming $16,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 12:52
FOR REGISTERED PA-BRED FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 14 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SHANGHAI TOOTSIE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PARTY PANTS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MOSCOWS GOT TALENT: Horse's win percentage at to day's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. HER DIVINENESS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5
SHANGHAI TOOTSIE
3/1

3/1
4
PARTY PANTS
8/5

7/1
8
MOSCOWS GOT TALENT
5/1

10/1
6
HER DIVINENESS
4/1

10/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
4
PARTY PANTS
4

8/5
Front-runner
65

53

84.2

51.6

46.1
6
HER DIVINENESS
7

4/1
Alternator/Front-runner
68

50

55.0

54.0

45.5
5
SHANGHAI TOOTSIE
5

3/1
Stalker
75

61

67.3

68.2

66.2
8
MOSCOWS GOT TALENT
9

5/1
Alternator/Stalker
70

62

57.7

56.2

47.2
1
SMARTY PI
3

10/1
Trailer
63

48

56.6

45.0

34.5
3
GEORGIA BONNET
2

30/1
Trailer
63

33

7.4

34.3

18.8
2
PAULA'S DREAM
1

12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
61

53

59.2

33.6

22.1
7
OFFLEELUCKYLADY
8

15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
47

43

58.6

38.2

23.2
1A
RISQUE EXPRESS
6

10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
62

49

53.4

42.8

31.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #7 - Post: 3:35pm - Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 DUDLEY STUDLEY (ML=3/1)
#1 PERFECT MAJESTIC (ML=12/1)


DUDLEY STUDLEY - I'm expecting this race horse to run a strong race in today's event. PERFECT MAJESTIC - This horse looks like a possible overlay in this race at morning odds of 12/1. Finished fourth in last race at Turf Paradise but was close at the end. Dropping in class rating points from his December 15th race at Turf Paradise. Based on that data, I will give this animal the advantage. This gelding's last speed rating registered on Dec 15th is at the top in last race speed figs.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 AIRBORNE MARK (ML=5/2), #2 CECIL THE CAT (ML=9/2), #4 MO ROCK (ML=8/1),

AIRBORNE MARK - Don't think this runner will make an impact in today's event. That last rating was mediocre when compared with today's class rating. CECIL THE CAT - No favorable outcomes for this less than sharp equine in a short distance contest over the last 60 days tells me that this gelding is in a thorny circumstance 9/2 is just too low of a value to take on most any thoroughbred that has run poorly in back to back efforts. The fig last time out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class rating of today's contest. Mark this mount as a likely underlay. MO ROCK - Didn't end up on the board on November 23rd at Turf Paradise. Followed it up with another less than stellar effort.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #8 DUDLEY STUDLEY on the win end if we get at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd
Jan 14 '19, 7:35 PM in 4h
NBA | Celtics vs Nets
Play on: UNDER 221½ -109

1* Free NBA Pick on Celtics/Nets UNDER 221.5

Ton of value here with the UNDER in Monday's NBA action that has division rivals Boston and Brooklyn facing off for the second time in a week. These two played last Monday at Boston, which the Celtics won 116-95. Note that game finished well under the mark of 219.5.

The familiarity between these two teams definitely favors a lower scoring game and that's even stronger with the two teams having just played each other, but I think both teams are going to take the intensity up a notch.

Brooklyn comes in off a blowout loss at Toronto and struggled to beat the top tier teams. They are going to lay it all on the line. There's frustration brewing in Boston with them not playing up to expectations and I would expect a big defense effort coming off back-to-back losses at Miami and Orlando. Under has cashed 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two in Brooklyn. Take the UNDER!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price
Jan 14 '19, 7:35 PM in 4h
NBA | Celtics vs Nets
Play on: Nets +4½ -109 at GTBets

1* Free Pick on Nets +4½ -109

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin
Jan 14 '19, 8:05 PM in 5h
NBA | Grizzlies vs Rockets
Play on: Grizzlies +5 -110 at Bovada

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Memphis Grizzlies +5

The laundry list of injuries for the Rockets just got even longer. Chris Paul and Eric Gordon have already been out for an extended period of time, and now Clint Capela is out tonight with a thumb injury. Capela is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. He does all the dirty work for the Rockets and is quickly becoming one of the best centers in the league. He averages 17.6 PPG, 12.6 RPG and 1.8 BPG and will be missed. The Rockets will now be without three of their top four scorers tonight. Plus they’ll be playing for a second consecutive day after losing in Orlando yesterday. The Grizzlies will want to avenge two losses in the past 30 days to the Rockets, and this will be their best chance to get it with the Rockets short-handed and tired. Give me the Grizzlies.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Smart
Jan 14 '19, 8:05 PM in 5h
NBA | Grizzlies vs Rockets
Play on: Grizzlies +6½ -115 at Bovada

The Houston Rockets looked tired last night in a loss to Orlando and now even more tired host the struggling Memphis Grizzlies on Monday at Toyota Center on the second night of a back-to-back. These kinds of scheduling situations can be advantageous in the right situations based on line value and that's what Im betting we have here this Monday night by backing the Grizzlies plus the points.

NBA Underdogs (MEMPHIS) - cold team - failing to cover the spread in 12 or more of the last 15, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 40-25 ATS L/23 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Take the points with Memphis to cover