Sunday 1-20-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-19-2019, 09:03 PM

Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans Saints Preview and Predictions 2019-01-20

NFL Predictions 17th January 2019 by Gracenote
Rams vs. Saints Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 01/17/2019

The New Orleans Saints made a statement by outscoring the high-octane Los Angeles Rams in their midseason meeting, handing the latter its first blemish and ultimately taking a large step toward home-field advantage in the playoffs. The Saints and Rams stayed the course for the duration of the season and each defeated an NFC East foe heading into Sunday's conference championship game at Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

While potential NFL Most Valuable Player candidate Drew Brees holds the all-time league record for completions and passing yards, the now-40-year-old quarterback is returning to the conference title game for just the first time since the 2009 season. Pro Bowl selection Michael Thomas had 12 receptions for 171 yards and a touchdown to toy with Philadelphia's injury-ravaged secondary in Sunday's 20-14 divisional-round victory (as the Saints were -8.5 point favorite at intertops), but his 12 catches in the 45-35 win over Los Angeles in Week 9 resulted in a franchise-record 211 yards and a 72-yard score. The Rams rebounded from that defeat to emerge victorious in five of their next seven and ultimately outlast Dallas to advance to their first NFC title game since 2001. Pro Bowl selection Todd Gurley (115 yards, touchdown) and C.J. Anderson (123 yards, 2 TDs) had their way in Saturday's 30-22 win over the Cowboys, although the Saints' No. 2-ranked rush defense yielded just 80.2 yards per game this season and 92 to the Rams in Week 9.

TV: 3:05 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Saints -3.5 O/U: 56.5

ABOUT THE RAMS: Cornerback Marcus Peters found himself covering old ground this week by downplaying a tasty morsel that gained traction shortly after the first encounter. Peters took issue with coach Sean Payton telling reporters in November that the Saints liked the 26-year-old lining up against Thomas, prompting Peters to promote the rematch before sarcastically saying of the coach that "we're going to have a nice little bowl of gumbo together." Pro Bowl selection Jared Goff ate up New Orleans' pass defense by completing 28 of 40 passes for 391 yards with three touchdowns, although he has failed to reach 200 yards in each of his last two outings. Former Saints wideout Brandin Cooks highlighted his fourth career season of 1,000-plus yards by making six catches for 114 yards and a touchdown in the previous meeting with New Orleans.

ABOUT THE SAINTS: The electric Alvin Kamara finished second to Gurley (21) in scrimmage touchdowns with 18, although the former had three (two rushing, one receiving) in the previous meeting with the Rams. While New Orleans showed its offensive chops in its high-scoring win over Los Angeles in Week 9, the Saints have shown some moxie on the other side of the ball in the latter half of the season. Cornerback Marshon Lattimore punctuated their divisional-round victory over the Eagles with his second interception in the latter stages of the fourth quarter. Linebacker Demario Davis (club-best 110 tackles) led the team with eight in last week's contest and seven versus the Rams.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Los Angeles features the NFL's second-ranked offense (421.1 yards per game) and third-ranked ground attack (139.4) while New Orleans resides eighth (379.2) and sixth (126.6), respectively.

2. The Saints have won their last seven home playoff games, with six coming under the watch of Brees and Payton.

3. Los Angeles Pro Bowl DT Aaron Donald registered a league-best 20.5 sacks this season, although the Rams failed to record one on Brees in Week 9.

PREDICTION: Saints 31, Rams 27

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-19-2019, 09:04 PM

New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs Preview and Predictions 2019-01-20

NFL Predictions 17th January 2019 by Gracenote
Patriots vs. Chiefs Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 01/17/2019

The Kansas City Chiefs are right where many observers expected them to be, although Andy Reid's team is in uncharted territory. The New England Patriots, conversely, are on familiar turf even in Kansas City's backyard. The top-seeded Chiefs seek to advance to their first Super Bowl in 49 years when they host the No. 2 seed Patriots in Sunday's AFC Championship Game.

Kansas City, led by second-year quarterback and league Most Valuable Player front-runner Patrick Mahomes, is in the conference title game for the first time since 1994. Mahomes and the high-scoring Chiefs shredded Indianapolis in the divisional round and will be looking to avenge a 43-40 road loss to Tom Brady and New England in Week 6 and hoist the Lamar Hunt Trophy -- named for the late founder of the franchise. The Patriots, despite posting their worst record since 2009, are making their eighth straight conference title game appearance and vying to become the third team in history to advance to three consecutive Super Bowls. "We see our quarterback is too old, we're not good enough on defense, the skill players aren't good," New England safety Devin McCourty said of his team's underdog status. "We see it. But it doesn't affect how we prepare."

TV: 6:40 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Chiefs -3 O/U: 55.5

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (12-5): New England lost five times on the road -- three by double digits -- and struggled in December, but put on a clinic against the Los Angeles Chargers a week ago, scoring touchdowns on its first five possessions en route to a 41-28 cakewalk. Brady, who has won five Super Bowl titles and earned game MVP honors four times, threw for 343 yards and a touchdown on 34 of 44 passing against the Chargers and had nearly identical numbers against the Chiefs in mid-October. Rookie running back Sony Michel rushed for 106 yards and two TDs in the first meeting versus Kansas City and warmed up for the rematch by rumbling for 129 yards and three scores against the Chargers. The Patriots, who surrendered an average of 28.4 points on the road, did not register a sack but intercepted Mahomes twice in the first matchup.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (13-4): Mahomes failed to throw a touchdown pass for only the second time this season but Kansas City held the ball for nearly 40 minutes in the 31-13 win over the Colts (as the Chiefs were -4.5 point favorite at intertops) as running back Damien Williams rushed for 129 yards and a score on 25 carries. Mahomes led the league's top-ranked offense to 31 second-half points at New England by throwing for 352 yards and four scoring passes, three of which went to speedster Tyreek Hill, who burned the Patriots' secondary with seven receptions for 142 yards. Tight end Travis Kelce, who had 10 touchdown passes during the regular season, was held to five catches for 61 yards in the first matchup but went for 108 yards on seven receptions last weekend. Kansas City's defense ranked 31st overall and against the pass but tied for the league lead with 52 sacks.

EXTRA POINTS

1. New England is looking to advance to its ninth Super Bowl in the past 18 seasons under coach Bill Belichick.

2. Mahomes could become the fourth quarterback, including Brady, to pass for 5,000 yards and reach the Super Bowl in the same season.

3. Patriots RB James White, who had a team-high 87 catches in the regular season, added 15 in last week's win over the Chargers.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 34, Patriots 30

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-20-2019, 09:52 AM

CAPPERS ACCESS
NFL
Rams
Chiefs

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-20-2019, 09:53 AM

Marc Lawrence

NFL Free Play - Sunday

Play - Chiefs-Patriots UNDER (Game 313-314).

Edges - AFC championship games with an Over/Under total of 48 or more points are 1-5-1 UNDER; and AFC title games are 1-4-1 UNDER the last six years … With the temperatures below freezing at Arrowhead Stadium for this game, we recommend a 1* play on the UNDER total. Thank you and good luck as always.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-20-2019, 09:53 AM

CHIP CHIRIMBES

L.A. Rams at New Orleans 3:05 ET

Rams/Saints (OVER)

A pair of great offensive teams with the exact same record (14-3) will be playing in 'perfect' conditions and their offenses will have no excuses for not putting the ball in the end zone. With balance and all-pros in fey offensive positions both clubs will not give up many series without trying to score. The Saints at home have already beaten L.A. 45-35 the first week in November and I expect more of the same, maybe not 80 but enough to go OVER. The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in New Orleans and 9-4 over in the last 13 overall in the series. Play OVER!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-20-2019, 09:53 AM

PURE LOCK

Pure Lock's FREE CBB play Sunday 1-20-19

Nebraska Omaha -5 -103

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-20-2019, 09:53 AM

L.A. Rams at New Orleans (FOX, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Los Angeles Road Record: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 2-6 O/U
New Orleans Home Record: 7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS, 5-4 O/U

Line Movements: The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened New Orleans -3 (-120) with a total of 55 ½. They pushed quickly to -3 ½ (Even) while early ‘over’ money nudged the total to 57. Bookmaker.eu sent out New Orleans -3 ½ with a total of 56 ½. The line has held steady but the total was pushed to 57.

Head-to-Head: The two teams met at the Superdome on Nov. 4 and New Orleans captured a 45-35 win over Los Angeles as a two-point underdog. The Saints led 35-17 at halftime but the Rams tied the game early in the fourth quarter with 18 unanswered points. New Orleans countered with a 10-0 run to win the game. Both the Saints (487) and Rams (483) racked up plenty of yards and they each committed one turnover. The difference in the game was converting on third and fourth down as New Orleans was 9-of-14 (64%) while the Rams only managed to connect on 30 percent (3-of-10) in the Week 9 matchup.

The pair also met in each of the last two regular seasons as well and the home team captured both of those contests as well. The Saints captured a 49-21 blowout win in 2016 while Los Angeles earned a 26-20 win at the Coliseum in 2017.

Including those results, the Rams have dropped their last three trips to the Superdome. The last win for the franchise came in 2007 when Marc Bulger was the quarterback for the St. Louis Rams.

Playoff Notes: Saturday’s 30-22 win over Dallas in the Divisional Round was the first playoff win for Los Angeles since 2005. Head coach Sean McVay and QB Jared Goff both own career 1-1 records in the postseason but both contests occurred at home.

New Orleans improved to 8-5 in the playoffs with QB Drew Brees under center and that includes a perfect 6-0 record at home. Make a note that the Saints are just 2-4 against the spread in those wins and that includes last Sunday’s non-cover (-8) in their 20-14 win over Philadelphia in the Divisional Round.

Total Notes: The Rams have watched the ‘over’ go 9-8 this season, which includes the high side ticket from last Saturday against Dallas. On the road, Los Angeles has been a great ‘under’ wager (6-2) and one of the two ‘over’ tickets came in the aforementioned game at New Orleans.

The 34 combined points in Sunday’s playoff game against Philadelphia was the lowest this season and the game easily went ‘under’ the total. New Orleans was 10-7 overall to the low side but New Orleans watched the ‘over’ go 5-4 at the Superdome. Prior to the ‘under’ result versus Philadelphia last Sunday, the Saints had seen the ‘over’ cash in 10 straight home playoff games and that included a 5-0 run with Brees.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-20-2019, 09:54 AM

New England at Kansas City (CBS, 6:40 p.m. ET)

New England Road Record: 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS, 3-5 O/U
Kansas City Home Record: 8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS, 3-5-1 O/U

Line Movements: The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sent out Kansas City as a three-point home favorite over New England. Bet Online, a major offshore betting outfit, opened the Chiefs at -3 as well.

The SuperBook sent out a total of 58. Bet Online opened at 57 ½.

Head-to-Head: Since 2000, the Patriots have won seven of 10 meetings with the Chiefs, while the last four meetings have finished 'over' the total. New England is making its first trip to Kansas City since 2014 when the Chiefs blitzed the Patriots on a Monday night at Arrowhead Stadium in a 41-14 beatdown as 2 ½-point underdogs.

The most recent matchup took place this season at Gillette Stadium as the Patriots held off the Chiefs, 43-40 in Week 6. Kansas City managed a slight cover as 3 ½-point underdogs, while both Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady each topped the 340-yard mark. Mahomes threw four touchdown passes, but the Patriots overcame blowing a 15-point lead thanks to a last-second field goal by Stephen Gostkowski.

Playoff Notes: The Patriots are playing in their eighth consecutive AFC championship, as New England has posted a 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS mark in this stretch. In the last two road AFC title games, the Patriots have lost at Denver in 2013 and 2015. The last away victory in the conference championship came in 2004 at Pittsburgh.

Kansas City has never hosted an AFC championship game before as the Chiefs improved to 2-10 in the last 12 postseason contests since 1994, while picking up their first playoff win at Arrowhead Stadium since 1993.

Amazingly, this is only the second all-time meeting in the playoffs between New England and Kansas City, as the Patriots knocked out the Chiefs in the 2015 divisional playoffs, 27-20.

Total Notes: Since posting an 'over' against the 49ers in Week 3, the Chiefs are 5-2-1 to the 'under' in the last eight games at Arrowhead Stadium. In five of those contests, the Chiefs have held their opponents to 14 points or less. In the last three playoff games in Kansas City, the 'under' has cashed, while four of the past five postseason contests for the Chiefs have gone 'under.'

The Patriots are 5-3 to the 'under' this season away from Gillette Stadium, while closing the season on an 8-1 'under' run. However, that streak came to a halt in New England's blowout of Los Angeles in the divisional round.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-20-2019, 09:54 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Conference Championships

Sunday, January 20

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA RAMS (14 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (14 - 3) - 1/20/2019, 3:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 54-77 ATS (-30.7 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 192-239 ATS (-70.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 192-239 ATS (-70.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 138-189 ATS (-69.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 69-102 ATS (-43.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
LA RAMS is 42-63 ATS (-27.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-1 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-1 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (12 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (13 - 4) - 1/20/2019, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 38-17 ATS (+19.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 38-17 ATS (+19.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 87-49 ATS (+33.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 124-94 ATS (+20.6 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 124-94 ATS (+20.6 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 44-23 ATS (+18.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 88-56 ATS (+26.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in playoff games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-1 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-20-2019, 09:54 AM

NFL

Conference Championships

Trend Report

Sunday, January 20

Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
LA Rams is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
LA Rams is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games on the road
LA Rams is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New Orleans
LA Rams is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
LA Rams is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Orleans's last 8 games
New Orleans is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home
New Orleans is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing LA Rams
New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Rams

New England Patriots
New England is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New England's last 10 games
New England is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
New England is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games on the road
New England is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
New England is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
New England is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
New England is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Kansas City is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 7 games
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Kansas City is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kansas City's last 14 games at home
Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
Kansas City is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing New England
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-20-2019, 09:54 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Conference Championships

LA Rams @ New Orleans

Game 311-312
January 20, 2019 @ 3:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
138.331
New Orleans
134.836
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 3 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3 1/2
56 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(+3 1/2); Under

New England @ Kansas City

Game 313-314
January 20, 2019 @ 6:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
141.098
Kansas City
146.452
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 5 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 3
55
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-3); Under

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-20-2019, 09:54 AM

Over the last five seasons, the home team has won every single AFC/NFC Championship game (10-0) and in those same games home teams are 8-2 against the spread.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-20-2019, 09:55 AM

Home teams in Conference Championship games are 10-0 SU (8-2 ATS) last five seasons

A run like this shouldn't be too surprising as teams that have earned home field in a Conference title game tend to be the ones that have been among the better teams in the league the entire season. We've got both #1 seeds hosting the games coming up this week, and Chiefs and Saints fans are hoping their respective squads can extend this run for home sides during this weekend.

Overall in this decade (starting with the 2009-10 season), home teams are 14-4 SU during Conference Championship weekend, but just 10-8 ATS. However, while that ATS record might suggest that going against the Chiefs and Saints this weekend may be worth considering – after all, a 10-8 ATS record is just 55% ATS for home sides, of those eight ATS defeats by home teams in this round, only one of them came when the home team was laying less than four points. That game would be the NFC Championship in January 2012 when the New York Giants knocked off San Francisco in OT thanks to a muffed punt that will go down in infamy for 49ers (and Giants) fans. San Francisco closed as a -2 home favorite that day.

Two of the other ATS defeats for home sides during this weekend came when we actually had a home underdog (Atlanta in January 2013, and Chicago in January 2011), with the remaining five ATS losses coming with the home side priced at -4 or greater, four of which were favored by a TD or more. With both point spreads currently in the -3/3.5 range for this year's games, you've basically got no margin for error in terms of backing the underdog and having them not win the game outright, and that's where the 10-0 SU run and 14-4 SU run this decade for home teams this weekend still has you fighting uphill.

Obviously, streaks/runs like this are made to be broken, and chronologically, it will be the LA Rams up first with a chance to end these streaks. LA does have the revenge angle on their side after losing in New Orleans earlier this year, and the fact that QB Jared Goff and company have already dealt with that hostile environment in a highly helped game should be a plus.

For Patriots backers, it's tough to ignore how dominant they were against the Chargers on Sunday, but sadly, the news doesn't get a whole lot better for them in terms of going out on the road in Kansas City and making their third consecutive Super Bowl this week. That's because....

Who's Not

NFL teams that score 40+ points in the playoffs are on a 2-7 SU run (3-6 ATS) the following playoff week

New England was the only one of the four high-powered offenses this past weekend to put up 40 or more points on the scoreboard and that may have not been the best omen for them. I've listed the most recent numbers for teams in that scenario in the header, but overall this decade (again, since the 2009-10 season) these teams are 5-9 SU and 4-10 ATS.

The good news for New England is the fact that the last two times it's happened for teams advancing from the Divisional round – Jacksonville last year and New England in January 2015 – they've gone 2-0 ATS, but only the Patriots were able to advance to the Super Bowl, and they did it with a home victory the following week, not a road date. Furthermore, teams that did score 40+ during the Divisional round since January 2010 are 4-3 SU the following week, but that's where the good news begins and ends for the Patriots this week.

None of those four SU victories in the Conference finals for teams off scoring 40+ have come by squads that were lined as road underdogs of any number, as road teams account for just two of those four wins off a 40+ point performance, and both were laying chalk as visitors (Green Bay in January 2011 and San Francisco in January 2013).

Finally, two of those three SU losses during the Conference finals have come from this New England Patriots franchise specifically (January 2013 and January 2014), and while New England will be making their eighth straight appearance in the AFC Championship, they are 0-3 ATS (1-2 SU) when entering the game after scoring 40+ the week prior. Add in the Patriots 0-2 SU and ATS record in road AFC Championships during this eight-year run, and Bill Belichick and company will be rewriting the history books in a big way should they win this weekend and move on to yet another Super Bowl appearance.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-20-2019, 09:55 AM

By: Brandon DuBreuil

CHIEFS D STEPS UP

Perhaps the biggest surprise of the Divisional Round was the play of Kansas City’s defense. It was a unit that struggled throughout the regular season with a rank of 26th in overall DVOA while giving up the second-most total yards per game in the league (405.5). Then they went out and shut down the hottest quarterback in the league, holding Andrew Luck without a pass completion in the first quarter and without an offensive touchdown until the game was well out of reach with 5:31 remaining in the fourth. Luck wound up throwing for just 203 yards on 19-of-36 passing while Marlon Mack was stuffed to the tune of 46 yards on nine carries, which was actually an inflated total as one of his carries went for 20 yards.

Shutting down the Colts was impressive but this week is a totally different challenge with Tom Brady and co. coming to town. The Patriots looked unstoppable on Sunday against what was a very good Chargers defense, scoring touchdowns on each of their first three possessions en route to the 41-point performance.

New England torched the Chiefs for 43 points back in Week 6, though it should be noted that K.C. was a much better unit at home during the regular season, allowing 17.4 points per game as compared to 34.6 on the road. Still, it’s Brady and Belichick in the playoffs and we’re expecting them to craft a game plan in which they score early and often against the Chiefs on Sunday. Our early-week lean is towards the Over 26.5 for New England’s team total.

GINN GETS LOVE

One of the more surprising storylines from Sunday’s Saints-Eagles win was New Orleans receiver Ted Ginn. He caught just three passes for 44 yards but the line that really jumps out is that Drew Brees targeted him seven times, which was second on the team to Michael Thomas’ 16 looks. Ginn actually could have had a monster game if Brees had not underthrown him on the game’s opening play that should have been a long touchdown but instead was an interception. Regardless, it was obvious that Brees wanted to get him the ball and that should again be the case on Sunday as the Saints host the Rams.

The Rams have an above-average pass defense, with a rank of ninth in passing DVOA during the regular season, but were burned by Dallas’s WR2, Michael Gallup, on Saturday to the tune of 6-119 on nine targets. Michael Thomas went bananas with a 12-171-1 line against the Eagles and he’ll surely be the focus of the Rams’ defensive game plan for the NFC Championship Game. We’re thinking Ginn could fly under the radar and we’ll be looking to play the Over for his receiving yards total.

RAMS RUN WILD

What a performance it was from the Rams’ running game on Saturday, racking up 273 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 48 carries. Dallas was a tough matchup on paper, with the fifth-ranked defense in rushing DVOA during the regular season, but the Cowboys had been vulnerable to the run on the road late in the season and that held true on Saturday (and got us a winner in backing the Over for Gurley’s rushing total).

Sunday will be an even tougher matchup, in theory, as the Saints ranked third in rushing DVOA during the regular season and then held the Eagles to 49 rushing yards on 16 carries last weekend.

It will also be tough to predict who will be doing the bulk of the work in the Rams’ backfield this weekend. C.J. Anderson actually led L.A. in carries last weekend and posted a line of 23-123-2, while Todd Gurley went for 16-115-1 in what was his first game since Dec. 16. Gurley’s long layoff was likely the reason why Anderson out-touched him, but all Anderson has done is run for rushing totals of 167, 132, and 123 while scoring four times in his three games with the Rams. He has to be involved against the Saints.

Our early-week lean is to stay off the rushing totals for both running backs as it’s tough to say how Sean McVay will use them, but we do like the idea of both of them getting goal-line touches at some point during the game and at +125, we’re backing Anderson to score a touchdown at any time.

MICHEL’S THE MAN

Sony Michel made his playoffs debut a memorable one on Sunday, rushing 24 times for 129 yards and hitting the end zone three times. He was the feature back in the running game, getting 24 of the 34 handoffs from Tom Brady (while James White took the passing downs and turned them into 15 receptions for 97 yards). It was a tough matchup on paper against the Chargers as they ranked 10th in rushing DVOA during the regular season and had only given up 90 rushing yards to Baltimore’s vaunted rushing attack the week prior.

This week looks to be an easier matchup for Michel. The Chiefs ranked dead last in rushing DVOA during the regular season and gave up 132.1 rushing yards per game (sixth-most in the NFL), five yards per carry (second-most in the NFL), and 19 rushing touchdowns (third-most in the NFL). The weather shouldn’t be a factor either as the surface at Arrowhead Field is heated, meaning the players shouldn’t have an issue with their footing. Michel is going to be a huge part of New England’s offensive plan and we’re backing him to hit the end zone once again this week by going Over 0.5 for his rushing touchdowns total at -120.

WATKINS UNSCATHED

Chiefs coach Andy Reid told the media on Tuesday that Sammy Watkins got through the Wild Card game without setbacks to his foot. He was playing in his first game since Week 11 last weekend and hauled in 6-of-8 targets for 62 yards. Watkins was on the field for 76-of-82 offensive snaps and will be at full speed against New England on Sunday night.

Watkins has a below-average matchup on Sunday against a Pats squad that ranked 14th in passing DVOA during the regular season and 12th in DVOA against WR2s, allowing seven passes for 53 yards per game. New England shut down Watkins back in Week 6, holding him to two catches for 18 yards in what was one of his worst offensive lines of the season. The Pats did get burned by the Chargers’ secondary receivers, Mike Williams and Tyrell Williams, for 10 total catches and 162 yards last week, though a lot of that can be attributed to game script as Philip Rivers threw 51 times because the Chargers fell behind big early. We expect the Pats to hold Watkins relatively in check and we’re backing the Under 4.5 for his receptions total.

CAN THOMAS BE STOPPED?

At times, Michael Thomas looks like the best receiver in the NFL. That was certainly the case last week as he hauled in a ridiculous 12 catches on 16 targets for 171 yards and a touchdown. It was also the case when the Rams and Saints met at the Superdome in Week 9 as he had 12 catches on 15 targets for 211 yards and a touchdown. Rams cornerback Marcus Peters was routinely burned by Thomas back in Week 9, but he’ll have some help on Sunday as Aqib Talib will be available after missing the Week 9 matchup.

Peters and Talib took turns covering Dallas’ top receiver Amari Cooper last weekend and held him relatively in check as Cooper turned in a line of 6-65-1. But Thomas is a lot better than Cooper, Drew Brees is a lot better than Dak Prescott, and New Orleans offensive scheme is a lot better than Dallas’. The Rams struggled with the opponent’s top receiver throughout the regular season, finishing with a DVOA rank of 28th to the position while allowing 7.4 passes for 82.7 yards per game (and those stats include eight Talib starts). Even with reinforcements, we don’t see how the Rams slow down Thomas in what should be an epic shootout at the Superdome. We’re taking the Over 92.5 on his receiving yards total.

SHOOTOUT IN THE BIG EASY?

With the Rams set to visit the Saints on Sunday with a game total of 56.5, it’s difficult to envision that we’re going to see anything except an epic shootout. Let’s dig into the numbers a bit.

The Saints averaged 32.6 points per game at home, third-best in the NFL.
The Rams averaged 28.8 points per game on the road, also third-best in the NFL.
Since 2003, games with totals of 56 or higher in the playoffs have hit the Over five out of seven times.
The Over is 5-1 in New Orleans’ home games during the playoffs since 2007, with the only Under coming in last week’s game against Philadelphia.

The Rams will want to run the ball with Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson but will likely struggle against New Orleans third-ranked unit in rushing DVOA. The Saints’ offense will also be a lot sharper as compared to last week where they were shutout in the first quarter as they were clearly rusty, having not played meaningful snaps as a unit since Week 16. The total opened at 57 and has since ticked down to 56.5, but we’re expecting points early and often, much like Week 9’s 80-point affair between these two teams. We’re backing the Over 56.5.

Sunday 1-20-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Sunday 1-20-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment