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SUNDAY, January 20, 2019
NFL -- NFC Championship -- 3:05 PM ET
[311] Los Angeles Rams at [312] New Orleans Saints
PLAY: [312] NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3 (-113)
BET SIZE: 3%
First road playoff game for Rams head coach Sean McVay and much more importantly, QB Jared Goff. Hard to imagine a much worse place for that to take place than the Superdome. It will be ridiculously loud when the Rams have the ball. I definitely expect Goff to have trouble hearing the play calls. Goff produced quite the home/road dichotomy this season:
Goff at Home this season: 22 TD, 3 INT, 116.7 QB Rating
Goff on the Road this season: 10 TD, 9 INT, 82.7 QB Rating
Those road numbers tell me Goff and the Rams will be in trouble in this one. I'm sure the Rams will once again try to lean on RBs Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson, but the Saints defense will be ready. I expect them to stack the box and force Goff to beat them. I don't think he can in this setting.
Saints QB Drew Brees also has quite a home/road dichotomy this season:
Brees at Home this season: 21 TD, 1 INT, 133.3 QB Rating
Brees on the Road this season: 11 TD, 4 INT, 99.3 QB Rating
The Saints are 6-0 SU at home in the playoffs under head coach Sean Payton, but just 2-4 ATS. The Saints were favored by more than a FG in all six of those games. I expect the big-game experience edge of Brees over Goff coupled with each QB's home/road results to lead to a win & cover for NEW ORLEANS.
==============================
College Basketball -- 4 PM ET
[825] Missouri State at [826] Drake
PLAY: [825] MISSOURI STATE +3.5 (-115)
BET SIZE: 3%
Market Analysis Play.
==============================
NFL -- AFC Championship -- 6:40 PM ET
[313] New England Patriots at [314] Kansas City Chiefs
PLAY: [314] KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -3 (-110)
BET SIZE: 3%
I told myself I couldn't go against Brady & Belichick in a big game like this. But, upon further review, the Chiefs look like the right side to me. Many will look to take the points with Brady & Belichick, and I do not at all mind being on the opposite side.
You probably know I believe it's defense that wins championships. So let's look at the home/road splits of these two teams:
Patriots at Home this season: 9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS... Average Score = PATRIOTS 33.8, Opponents 17.9
Patriots Away this season: 3-5 SU/ATS... Average Score = PATRIOTS 21.6, Opponents 24
Chiefs at Home this season: 8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS... Average Score = CHIEFS 32.2, Opponents 17.4
Chiefs Away this season: 5-3 SU, 4-2-2 ATS... Average Score = CHIEFS 38.2, Opponents 34.6
A couple things really stand out there. First, the Patriots score 12.2 points per game less on the road than at home. Secondly, the Chiefs allow an incredible 17.2 points per game less at home.
You need a very good pass rush to beat Brady. So it's a good thing KC tied for the NFL lead with 52 sacks.
I expect KANSAS CITY to get its revenge from a 43-40 road loss to these Patriots in Week 6.
==============================
College Basketball -- 7 PM ET
[835] South Dakota at [836] Nebraska Omaha
PLAY: [835] SOUTH DAKOTA +5 (-110)
BET SIZE: 3%
Market Analysis Play.
DWAYNE BRYANT
SUNDAY, January 20, 2019
NFL -- NFC Championship -- 3:05 PM ET
[311] Los Angeles Rams at [312] New Orleans Saints
PLAY: [312] NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3 (-113)
BET SIZE: 3%
First road playoff game for Rams head coach Sean McVay and much more importantly, QB Jared Goff. Hard to imagine a much worse place for that to take place than the Superdome. It will be ridiculously loud when the Rams have the ball. I definitely expect Goff to have trouble hearing the play calls. Goff produced quite the home/road dichotomy this season: Goff at Home this season: 22 TD, 3 INT, 116.7 QB Rating
Goff on the Road this season: 10 TD, 9 INT, 82.7 QB Rating Those road numbers tell me Goff and the Rams will be in trouble in this one. I'm sure the Rams will once again try to lean on RBs Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson, but the Saints defense will be ready. I expect them to stack the box and force Goff to beat them. I don't think he can in this setting. Saints QB Drew Brees also has quite a home/road dichotomy this season: Brees at Home this season: 21 TD, 1 INT, 133.3 QB Rating
Brees on the Road this season: 11 TD, 4 INT, 99.3 QB Rating The Saints are 6-0 SU at home in the playoffs under head coach Sean Payton, but just 2-4 ATS. The Saints were favored by more than a FG in all six of those games. I expect the big-game experience edge of Brees over Goff coupled with each QB's home/road results to lead to a win & cover for NEW ORLEANS. ============================== College Basketball -- 4 PM ET
[825] Missouri State at [826] Drake
PLAY: [825] MISSOURI STATE +3.5 (-115)
BET SIZE: 3%
Market Analysis Play. ============================== NFL -- AFC Championship -- 6:40 PM ET
[313] New England Patriots at [314] Kansas City Chiefs
PLAY: [314] KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -3 (-110)
BET SIZE: 3%
I told myself I couldn't go against Brady & Belichick in a big game like this. But, upon further review, the Chiefs look like the right side to me. Many will look to take the points with Brady & Belichick, and I do not at all mind being on the opposite side. You probably know I believe it's defense that wins championships. So let's look at the home/road splits of these two teams: Patriots at Home this season: 9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS... Average Score = PATRIOTS 33.8, Opponents 17.9
Patriots Away this season: 3-5 SU/ATS... Average Score = PATRIOTS 21.6, Opponents 24 Chiefs at Home this season: 8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS... Average Score = CHIEFS 32.2, Opponents 17.4
Chiefs Away this season: 5-3 SU, 4-2-2 ATS... Average Score = CHIEFS 38.2, Opponents 34.6 A couple things really stand out there. First, the Patriots score 12.2 points per game less on the road than at home. Secondly, the Chiefs allow an incredible 17.2 points per game less at home. You need a very good pass rush to beat Brady. So it's a good thing KC tied for the NFL lead with 52 sacks. I expect KANSAS CITY to get its revenge from a 43-40 road loss to these Patriots in Week 6. ============================== College Basketball -- 7 PM ET
[835] South Dakota at [836] Nebraska Omaha
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