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Week of February 11th
Handicapping the NBA right before the All-Star break can come with unique challenges in terms of trying to figure out focus and motivation for guys. The season has been a grind already as the teams are coming up on 60 games played, and with the relatively new week long break for the entire league, vacation and family time starts to be on the forefront of guys minds.
So let's take a look back at what's happened in the NBA betting market the past few years during this week to see if we can use it to our advantage this week as these teams play their final game of the “first half.”
Who's Hot
NBA teams that are underdogs of 5 or more points in final game before the All-Star Break are 13-5 ATS the last two years – including 7-1 ATS last season
When you think about it, a run like this by bigger underdogs does have some correlation with motivational/focus levels being low for those teams expected to win. It's definitely not ideal to back a team that's expected to win easy in their final game by a big margin, simply because it's those teams that take the approach that they just have to show up to the court and they'll leave with a victory. That's never a spot I like to be in, regardless of the time of year.
Just last year alone, underdogs that were getting +5 or more in their final game before the break finished with a 7-1 ATS record, and while there were only two outright wins in that scenario – LA Clippers over Boston and Portland over Golden State – those two losses came from two teams that finished the year as two of the last four teams standing when the Conference Finals rolled around. So it's not like the league's best are immune from failure in this spot.
This year, we've got three teams playing their final game before the break on Tuesday – LA Lakers, San Antonio, Utah – and with the Jazz visiting Golden State out in Oakland, it's likely that we see them fit this exact scenario. On Thursday there aren't that strong of candidates, but Orlando and New Orleans could fit the bill as home underdogs against Charlotte and OKC respectively, so keep an eye on those point spreads when they come out. Although home teams bring up a whole different scenario which I'll get to in a minute.
The rest of the NBA wraps up their pre-All-Star schedule on Wednesday as there are 11 games on the betting board that day, and there will be some solid candidates that will fit this scenario as well. Oddly enough, Golden State is visiting Portland in the exact same situation as the two teams had a year ago – with Portland winning as +6.5 home dogs, and that is the latter end of a back-to-back for the Warriors. That's definitely a point spread to keep an eye on as well in terms of falling into this role.
Aside from the Blazers being a potentially backable side, Wednesday should also bring us dogs of 5+ with a handful of teams including Sacramento, Phoenix, Detroit and Washington all on the road. Which brings me to...
Who's Not
NBA teams at home in final game before All-Star break went 3-12 ATS last year
From a big picture standpoint, this ties in to bigger favorites struggling as well. For one, favorites tend to lay bigger numbers at home to begin with, and with the road teams still able to treat their final game in a more business-like fashion and not be “lulled to sleep” with family pulling at them the night before/day with off-court plans or vacation arrangements for the next week. It may have only been one year, but being in hostile territory was not that hostile at all at this point a year ago.
A 3-12 ATS record for home teams in their final game is just atrocious, and while that mark is just a one year sample, you can see situational reasoning behind it, and make cases for it to be a popular angle to take for this year and beyond.
Looking at Wednesday's NBA slate alone, chances are we will see plenty of big home favorites on the card as Denver, LA Clippers, Boston, and Toronto all host those four road teams I mentioned at the end of the “Hot” section, with other home sides like Indiana (vs Milwaukee), Cleveland (vs Brooklyn), Minnesota (vs Houston), and Portland (vs Golden State) all having tough matchups as it is, this year could be another rough one to back home teams before the All-Star break.
Now every situation is going to be different – for example Dallas hosts Miami at the end of a very long road trip for the Heat, which is going to be a tough spot for Miami regardless - and each game will force you to be selective in which games you believe this scenario will fit the best.
But when you can combine these two “Hot” and “Not” situations I've outlined into one game – a home team laying -5 or more – it might be worth your time to dig deeper into those games and build a case for taking the points with the road underdog.
YouWager
Week of February 11th
Handicapping the NBA right before the All-Star break can come with unique challenges in terms of trying to figure out focus and motivation for guys. The season has been a grind already as the teams are coming up on 60 games played, and with the relatively new week long break for the entire league, vacation and family time starts to be on the forefront of guys minds.
So let's take a look back at what's happened in the NBA betting market the past few years during this week to see if we can use it to our advantage this week as these teams play their final game of the “first half.”
Who's Hot
NBA teams that are underdogs of 5 or more points in final game before the All-Star Break are 13-5 ATS the last two years – including 7-1 ATS last season
When you think about it, a run like this by bigger underdogs does have some correlation with motivational/focus levels being low for those teams expected to win. It's definitely not ideal to back a team that's expected to win easy in their final game by a big margin, simply because it's those teams that take the approach that they just have to show up to the court and they'll leave with a victory. That's never a spot I like to be in, regardless of the time of year.
Just last year alone, underdogs that were getting +5 or more in their final game before the break finished with a 7-1 ATS record, and while there were only two outright wins in that scenario – LA Clippers over Boston and Portland over Golden State – those two losses came from two teams that finished the year as two of the last four teams standing when the Conference Finals rolled around. So it's not like the league's best are immune from failure in this spot.
This year, we've got three teams playing their final game before the break on Tuesday – LA Lakers, San Antonio, Utah – and with the Jazz visiting Golden State out in Oakland, it's likely that we see them fit this exact scenario. On Thursday there aren't that strong of candidates, but Orlando and New Orleans could fit the bill as home underdogs against Charlotte and OKC respectively, so keep an eye on those point spreads when they come out. Although home teams bring up a whole different scenario which I'll get to in a minute.
The rest of the NBA wraps up their pre-All-Star schedule on Wednesday as there are 11 games on the betting board that day, and there will be some solid candidates that will fit this scenario as well. Oddly enough, Golden State is visiting Portland in the exact same situation as the two teams had a year ago – with Portland winning as +6.5 home dogs, and that is the latter end of a back-to-back for the Warriors. That's definitely a point spread to keep an eye on as well in terms of falling into this role.
Aside from the Blazers being a potentially backable side, Wednesday should also bring us dogs of 5+ with a handful of teams including Sacramento, Phoenix, Detroit and Washington all on the road. Which brings me to...
Who's Not
NBA teams at home in final game before All-Star break went 3-12 ATS last year
From a big picture standpoint, this ties in to bigger favorites struggling as well. For one, favorites tend to lay bigger numbers at home to begin with, and with the road teams still able to treat their final game in a more business-like fashion and not be “lulled to sleep” with family pulling at them the night before/day with off-court plans or vacation arrangements for the next week. It may have only been one year, but being in hostile territory was not that hostile at all at this point a year ago.
A 3-12 ATS record for home teams in their final game is just atrocious, and while that mark is just a one year sample, you can see situational reasoning behind it, and make cases for it to be a popular angle to take for this year and beyond.
Looking at Wednesday's NBA slate alone, chances are we will see plenty of big home favorites on the card as Denver, LA Clippers, Boston, and Toronto all host those four road teams I mentioned at the end of the “Hot” section, with other home sides like Indiana (vs Milwaukee), Cleveland (vs Brooklyn), Minnesota (vs Houston), and Portland (vs Golden State) all having tough matchups as it is, this year could be another rough one to back home teams before the All-Star break.
Now every situation is going to be different – for example Dallas hosts Miami at the end of a very long road trip for the Heat, which is going to be a tough spot for Miami regardless - and each game will force you to be selective in which games you believe this scenario will fit the best.
But when you can combine these two “Hot” and “Not” situations I've outlined into one game – a home team laying -5 or more – it might be worth your time to dig deeper into those games and build a case for taking the points with the road underdog.
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