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Re: 1-11-09
John Ryan
Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
Play: Philadelphia Eagles +4
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Eagles as they travel up the turnpike to face the Giants slated to start at 1:00 EST Sunday. AiS shows a 73% probability that philadelphia will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and has a 45% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a strong money line system that has produced a record of 23-14 making 31.2 units since 1983. Play on road teams versus the money line in a game involving 2 very good teams outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season and after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games. Here is a second system that has gone 61-30 for 67% since 1983. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are average passing teams gaining 5.9-6.7 PYA facing an average passing defense allowing 5.9-6.7 PYA after 8+ games, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. For 15 years Philly has played some of their best football when facing the best competition. Note that the Eagles are a solid 31-15 ATS (+14.5 Units) when playing against a good team sporting a win percentage of win percentage of 60% to 75% in the second half of the season since 1992. Further reflecting this characteristic of a team playing better than their norm when facing the best teams Philly is a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons. The Giants were once 11-1 and at that the time the Eagles were almost buried for dead. Over the past 5 weeks of the regular season the Eagles have played as good if not better than anyone in the conference and far more consistently than the Giants. The Eagles are loose playing with House money and the pressure is squarely on the Giants to advance. Take the Eagles.Comment
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Re: 1-11-09
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants Jan 11 2009 1:00PM
Prediction: under
Reason: NFL: Play UNDER the total in NEW YORK GIANTS vs PHILADELPHIA on Sunday, January 11th at 1 PM ET: Consider a play on the UNDER in this match-up. Teams have a way of figuring out how to best combat a team’s strengths when they meet frequently and that is certainly the case between the Giants and Eagles. This will be their third meeting this season. The first one was a crazy 36 to 31 affair in Philadelphia. The second one was a much more defensive-minded struggle where the Giants only two touchdowns came on a blocked field goal run back for a touchdown and a last-second meaningless touchdown just before the game expired. In other words, the 20 to 14 final in that December game in New York doesn’t even give proper value to the fact that the defenses dominated in that one. The Eagles and Giants both rely heavily on blitz packages and they should both have success in holding the opposing quarterback in check in this game as a result. The Giants offense did not look near as strong down the stretch run as they did earlier this season. Maybe Plaxico Burress meant more to this team than first thought! As for the Eagles, their offense has not been that impressive against top tier competition. That didn’t safely have the game in hand against the Vikings last week until Brian Westbrook broke that 72 yard screen pass for a touchdown. Prior to that, their win over Dallas saw the 44 points sparked by turnovers as they actually had just 16 first downs in the game! Prior to that the Eagles managed just a field goal at Washington in what was essentially a must-win game. Their offense may not be able to be trusted here against a rock solid defense but, likewise, the Giants offense could have trouble with an Eagles team that has only allowed 74 points in their last six games! While we won’t commit to the side in this match-up just yet. We will tell you that we can see some value with the under in this match-up and that could be worth a look in this one. Consider a play on UNDER the total in the New York Giants game on Sunday. Best of luck in all your sports gaming from Scott RickenbachComment
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Re: 1-11-09
Handicapper: John Ryan
San Diego Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (NFL) - 4:45 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Total: 38/102 Over Play Title: OVER
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
Ai Simulator 15* graded play OVER San Diego/Pittsburgh scheduled to start on Sunday at 4:30 EST. Also, a 5* play on San Diego. Also an optional play to parlay SD with the money line and the OVER. AiS shows an 87% probability that 40 or more points will be scored in this game. Granted the following angles are self fulfilling prophesies to a degree, but not all of the games played were lined above 40 points either. With the line UNDER 40 the following projection takes on significant meaning. AiS shows an 84% probability that both teams will score 20 or more points. San Diego is 7-1 OVER this season, 17-3 OVER the past 3 seasons and 81-8 OVER since 1992 in a game where they and their opponent score 20 or more points. Steelers are 3-0 this season, 14-0 the last 3 seasons and 80-3 OVER since 1992 when they and their opponents score 20 or more points. SD is in a solid OVER role as well noting they are 14-4 OVER (+9.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons. Pittsburgh is 14-5 OVER (+8.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons; 10-2 OVER (+7.8 Units) after outgaining opp by 150 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Needless to say Sproles will be the key offensive player the Steelers will want to focus on. The Steelers rank first in run defense, 1st in kick coverage and 4th in punt coverage. Yet, they have not had to face nor the time to prepare for a player as unique as Sproles. Rivers has developed into a complete QB and the most impressive part of his game is his pocket presence and that will certainly be a positive factor in keeping drives consistent and not predictable. SD does not have to run the ball extremely well to win this game. All that is needed is for Pittsburgh to respect the run (sproles). Note that Pittsburgh is 1-8 ATS when they allow 3 to 3.5 rushing yards per attempt and SD is 6-1 ATS over the past 3 seasons in that role.Comment
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Re: 1-11-09
Indiancowboy
3 Unit Play. #307. Take San Diego Chargers +6.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, January 11th @ 4:45pm est). I understand that the Chargers should not be here given the season that they have had in a weak division. I have always felt that a "Division Winner" should not be given the right to enter just because they won their particular division and in particular, host a playoff game over a team that has the better record. After all, the Arizona Cardinals should not be in the playoffs nor should they have hosted the first round of the playoffs as a home game against the the 11 win Atlanta Falcons. That's a joke. Having said that, the Chargers should not have been hosting a game against the Chargers either. But, what's done is done. This is not to take away from the fact that the Chargers have made a big run and a strong push the last few weeks. After all, they kept believing. Remember, the Chargers are quite capable of defeating the Steelers outright. Heck, they just defeated the Indianapolis Colts who were one of the hottest teams in the league coming into that game at Q-Com. Let's not forget, this is the same San Diego Chargers team that lost 10-11 to the Steelers on the road earlier this year and easily covered as the road chalk. If they can cover the road chalk there as 4.5 dogs, why could they not cover herre as 6.5 chalk? This team plays with a chip on its shoulder. This team wants to be here and in particular, they are thankful to be here given the year they had. They have not played a bad game in quite some time. After all, these Chargers once again, lost 10-11 to the Steelers on the road and frankly, there were some questionable calls that game and this team could have won outright. They were up 7-0 at the end of the first and went into half time up 7-5. Take away the safety that Rivers had and the final outcome of that game could have been very different. Pittsburgh remember lost to the Colts at home 20-24 as this team can be defeated and defeated at home. The Chargers know they played a great game against Pitt last time around and are quite capable of defeating this team. I look for the Chargers in Rivers, LT and Norv Turner to put it all together and continuing this improbable run and frankly, I would not be surprised if the Chargers won outright. After all, if the Giants can go on the road last year as 7 point dogs to Tampa Bay and win Outright, as 7 point dogs to Dallas and win Outright and 7 point dogs to Green Bay in the NFC Championship and win outright - is that impossible to think that the San Diego Chargers who lost by 1 point last time to the Steelers and who were leading at the half 7-5 and were a safety away from winning last time can't defeat the Steelers in Pittsburgh? The Chargers have won their last 5 straight, have covered their last 3 straight and have covered their last four straight playoff games. The "Boltz" get it done for us on Sunday.
2 Unit Play. #305. Take Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 over NY Giants (Sunday, January 11th @ 1pm est.) I believe in the Eagles. Why not? This team is very similar to the NY Giants of 2007-2008? Remember that team? That was the wild card team that went on the road last year as 7 point dogs to Tampa Bay and win Outright, as 7 point dogs to Dallas and win Outright and 7 point dogs to Green Bay in the NFC Championship and win outright. Why is it so hard to believe a Philadelphia team, a veteran Philadelphia team at that, who already defeated the Giants on the road Outright this year in a must win game can't defeat a Giants team that enter the playoffs playing questionable football? I actually think this game is a toss-up. Look, the Eagles have absolutely nothing to lose. They are thankful just to be in the playoffs, nevertheless, a game away from the NFC Championship. This is a magical year for this team. After all the heat that McNabb and company took this year, this team finds itself in a game they can certainly win outright. The Giants are simply not the same without Plaxico and it has showed. Yes, the Giants defeated the Panthers in an exciting Sunday Night Football game in a great comeback. I remember that as I was on the Giants and were rooting for them to score the touchdown in overtime rather than kick the field goal. But, having said that, the Giants simply have not been blowing anyone out of late. In all honesty, one can argue, that despite the Giants were 2-2 ATS coming into the playoffs, they should be 4-0 ATS. After all, the Giants should not have been true 7 point dogs on the road to the Vikings and lost outright and really should not have covered against the Panthers who should have won that game outright. Prior to that the Giants lost outright to the Eagles and lost on the road convincingly to Dallas 8-20 that even the Ravens were able to accomplish with relative ease. The Giants just come into the playoffs stumbling and I look for the hot Eagles who have won 5 of 6 SU and covered 5 of 6 to beat the Giants outright here or at worse lose by a field goal. Don't over think this, we have the team that has the angel that the Giants had on their shoulder the previous year and I firmly believe this could be a magical year for the Eagles as only the Panthers could stand in their way. The Eagles are more dynamic over the last month than the Giants, the Giants have not been the same with the exiting of Plaixco and have a defense that is second to no one when it comes to pressuring the quarterback which Tony Romo can tell you all about. The Eagles are 10-1 ATS as road underdogs and 4-0 ATS in their last four road playoff gamesComment
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