Thursday 3-21-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-21-2019, 08:20 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Gate Fields

Golden Gate Fields - Race 3

$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $1 Superfecta (.10 min) / $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) $0.50 Late Pick 5 (3-4-5-6-7)

Claiming $12,500 • 1 Mile • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 100 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 1:56P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SERTAR is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SERTAR: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. JO URNEY TO RUN: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SIX CIDER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed F igure at the distance/surface.
1
SERTAR
9/5

3/1
3
JOURNEY TO RUN
9/2

4/1
2
SIX CIDER
8/1

7/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
SERTAR
1

9/5
Front-runner
98

88

85.4

88.4

81.9
2
SIX CIDER
2

8/1
Alternator/Stalker
99

85

91.2

87.2

79.2
3
JOURNEY TO RUN
3

9/2
Trailer
99

102

84.0

94.8

89.3
4
GAIN GROUND
4

2/1
Alternator/Non-contender
106

105

90.4

85.6

82.6
6
SON OF THE SOUTH
6

12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
92

89

85.2

79.0

69.5
5
SHIFTY DANCER
5

7/2
Alternator/Non-contender
95

87

76.4

83.6

74.1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-21-2019, 08:20 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park

Remington Park - Race 2

Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum)

Maiden • 330 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3-5 • CR: 77 • Purse: $23,100 • Post: 6:26P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BRED MAIDEN, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEAR OLDS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * THISBETTERWORK: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest ave rage Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. ITS RELEVENT: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figur e at the distance/surface.
5
THISBETTERWORK
7/2

8/5
2
ITS RELEVENT
9/2

4/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
1
CORONA COBRA
1

10/1
Slow/Trouble-prone
0

0

7.7

0.0

0.0
2
ITS RELEVENT
2

9/2
Average
71

72

4.3

0.0

0.0
3
LOTA TRAILS
3

12/1
Average/Trouble-prone
0

0

5.0

0.0

0.0
4
POLLITICAL GAME
4

5/1
Fast
0

0

2.7

0.0

0.0
5
THISBETTERWORK
5

7/2
Average
84

80

5.0

0.0

0.0
6
JF MY CAPO
6

8/1
Average
59

57

0.0

0.0

0.0
7
COWGIRLSRUNNINGREBEL
7

6/1
Average
71

57

5.2

0.0

0.0
8
VALLIANCE
8

5/2
Average
71

57

5.4

0.0

0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-21-2019, 08:21 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Fair Grounds - Race #2 - Post: 1:02pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 IRRITATOR (ML=3/1)
#2 SHOWCASE MALL (ML=7/2)

IRRITATOR - Sprinters that come back to the races quickly are generally good plays. In this race here, this horse has clearly shown signs that he likes the turf. His Equibase speed figs are the highest in the field for this dist-surf. This animal could be tough today, especially since Sutherland rode in the last race and now should be acquainted with this one. SHOWCASE MALL - Dropping in Equibase class figure points from his Feb 1st race at Fair Grounds. Based on that element, I will give this horse the edge. Searching through the past performances for this race, I noted right away this animal's last effort was more than meets the eye. Showed good early speed, fell back, and then ran evenly. This colt is certainly on the improve with Equibase speed figures of 57, 87, 90 last three out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 KEEP TALKING (ML=8/5), #7 EXCHANGE GOLD (ML=7/2), #5 WILDCAT SAINT (ML=6/1),

KEEP TALKING - This mount likes to finish in the money, but doesn't usually win. Don't put in the top spot. EXCHANGE GOLD - Last speed figure of 80 may not be for real since it was in the slop. When checking today's class figure, he will have to notch a better speed fig than last out to battle in this turf sprint. WILDCAT SAINT - Hasn't been getting close at all recently.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - IRRITATOR - My historical data says it usually takes a horse 1 - 2 races after a layoff to get back into proper racing condition. That's just what we have here, so I have a good feeling for this horse.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #3 IRRITATOR on top if we're getting at least 6/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-21-2019, 08:21 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10800 Class Rating: 83

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE SEPTEMBER 21. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 21 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 YO SOY EL LOBO 3/1

# 6 LYRICAL MIRACLE 7/2

# 2 ONLY THE TRUTH 10/1

I think YO SOY EL LOBO is a solid choice. He should definitely be carefully examined given the competitive speed figures. Has been running admirably in races of this distance, going 7 - 25 under similar conditions. Must be given a chance based on the strong speed figure earned in the last contest. LYRICAL MIRACLE - With Hernandez getting the mount, watch out for this equine. With a very good 75 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will surely be a factor in this outing. ONLY THE TRUTH - Graci and Conner have a good winning percentage together.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-21-2019, 08:21 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 41

FOR NATIVE FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON $8,000 SINCE MARCH 21, 2018 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 6, 2019 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 21, 2019 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 21, 2019 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 7 CAYEY PRINCESS 5/2

# 2 MISS NAIKAN 20/1

# 1 MI NIETA DANIRA 20/1

I've got to go with CAYEY PRINCESS. Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group of horses as of late. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this mare. Will make a good outing versus this field. MISS NAIKAN - Her earnings per start in dirt route races alone makes you take a look at her. MI NIETA DANIRA - Has competitive early lick and ought to fare soundly versus this group. The rapid return to the track points to a formidable effort this time out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-21-2019, 08:22 AM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park

03/21/19, GP, Race 5, 3.15 ET
7 1/2F [Turf About] 1.27.00 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $50,000.
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLDAND UPWARD
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5 - $.50 Bet 3 (Races 5-6-7) / $.20 Rainbow Pick 6 (Races 5-10) / $2 HRR - (RED 6,7: 4/5. BLK 1,2,5: 1/1. GRN 3,4,8: 10/1.)
Top Horse(100.0000) - Races 327, Win Percent 23.85, $1 ROI 0.82, For Race Category MSW_MCLM Turf
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse with stats MUST be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are exclusive to GP.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags Profit ROI WPC W# Occ
100.0000 5 Makealitlemischief 3-1 Saez L Pletcher Todd A. TFEL 25.00 1.32 46.15 18 39
097.0447 7 June Ann (IRE) 6-1 Gaffalione T Keefe Timothy L. W 58.80 1.11 7.89 22 279
096.7896 6 Sunniva 2-1 Jaramillo E O'Connell Kathleen 58.80 1.11 7.89 22 279
094.7202 8 Gorgeous in Rags 8-1 Ortiz. Jr. I Walsh Brendan P. JSC 24.00 1.19 26.98 17 63
094.6975 1 Passionof the Nile 4-1 Ortiz J L Brisset Rodolphe 9.40 1.10 46.81 22 47
093.3159 4 Marwoods War 20-1 Hernandez R M De Paulo Michael P. 58.80 1.11 7.89 22 279
091.3750 2 Irish Princess 8-1 Lopez P Fawkes David 24.00 1.19 26.98 17 63
090.8912 3 C C's Freedom(b-) 30-1 Lopez C C Russo Anthony J. 58.80 1.11 7.89 22 279
Rating P# Horse Name Profitable Condition (if top rated horse)
100.0000 5 Makealitlemischief COM Horse Best Earnings and LeadPack
097.0447 7 June Ann (IRE) Last Race Not 5f Workout Since
096.7896 6 Sunniva Last Race Not 5f Workout Since
094.7202 8 Gorgeous in Rags Last Race Main to Turf Today
094.6975 1 Passionof the Nile Horse Post 1
093.3159 4 Marwoods War Last Race Not 5f Workout Since
091.3750 2 Irish Princess Last Race Main to Turf Today
090.8912 3 C C's Freedom(b-) Last Race Not 5f Workout Since
If Race Is Off Turf
Top Horse(100.0000) - Races 322, Win Percent 31.99, $1 ROI 0.80, For Race Category MSW_MCLM Dirt
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse with stats MUST be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are exclusive to GP.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags Profit ROI WPC W# Occ
100.0000 5 Makealitlemischief 3-1 Saez L Pletcher Todd A. TFEL 30.20 1.46 54.55 18 33
098.8472 6 Sunniva 2-1 Jaramillo E O'Connell Kathleen
097.7584 7 June Ann (IRE) 6-1 Gaffalione T Keefe Timothy L. W
097.4581 8 Gorgeous in Rags 8-1 Ortiz. Jr. I Walsh Brendan P. JSC
097.1099 1 Passionof the Nile 4-1 Ortiz J L Brisset Rodolphe
095.4572 2 Irish Princess 8-1 Lopez P Fawkes David
094.3938 4 Marwoods War 20-1 Hernandez R M De Paulo Michael P.
091.8548 3 C C's Freedom(b-) 30-1 Lopez C C Russo Anthony J.
Rating P# Horse Name Profitable Condition (if top rated horse)
100.0000 5 Makealitlemischief COM Horse Best Trainer and LeadPack
098.8472 6 Sunniva (none)
097.7584 7 June Ann (IRE) (none)
097.4581 8 Gorgeous in Rags (none)
097.1099 1 Passionof the Nile (none)
095.4572 2 Irish Princess (none)
094.3938 4 Marwoods War (none)
091.8548 3 C C's Freedom(b-) (none)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-21-2019, 08:22 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Charles Town - Race #8 - Post: 10:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,500 Class Rating: 51

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 SUNSET GIRL (ML=7/2)

SUNSET GIRL - Hiraldo is right back for another event today after getting on board this animal for the first ride on Feb 27th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. Is ranked number one in the field in EPS (earnings per start). A strong performance right here in this race will boost the lifetime earnings.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 DEVELIN' ROSE (ML=4/1), #2 COUNTRY MAGIC (ML=9/2), #3 ROCK OF WINDSOR (ML=9/2),

DEVELIN' ROSE - 4/1 odds isn't enough for this participant when looking at the most recent efforts. Registered a pedestrian speed fig in the last race in a Maiden Special race on Jan 23rd. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that rating. COUNTRY MAGIC - Would have to get more than the morning line of 9/2 to bet on this thoroughbred. ROCK OF WINDSOR - Likely won't make much of a mark this time.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - SUNSET GIRL - I don't care what kind of athletic contest you're in, when you drop down to easier competition the experience of facing stiffer competition strengthens you. This noble animal is live today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 SUNSET GIRL to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
5 with [6,11]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
5 with [6,11] with [2,3,6,11] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
5 with [2,6,11] with [2,3,6,9,11] with [2,3,6,9,11] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-21-2019, 08:23 AM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Oaklawn Park

03/21/19, OP, Race 2, 1.57 CT
6F [Dirt] 1.07.04 CLAIMING. Purse $37,000.
Claiming Price $30,000, if for $25,000, allowed 3 lbs. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES
Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta - 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)
Top Horse(100.0000) - Races 555, Win Percent 24.68, $1 ROI 0.78, For Race Category Non-Maiden Dirt
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse with stats MUST be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are exclusive to OP.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags Profit ROI WPC W# Occ
100.0000 2 E Rated(b+) 5-1 McMahon C Broberg Karl SFEL 27.20 1.25 40.00 22 55
099.0139 1 Earnednevergiven 3-1 Mojica O McKnight Norman T .20 1.01 50.00 4 8
096.9813 6 Sweet Idi 6-1 Canchari A L Robertson McLean
096.8468 5 Alexandros 7/2 Baze T Martin Timothy E. .20 1.01 50.00 4 8
096.5479 8 Fault Line 12-1 Vazquez R A Villafranco Federico J 24.00 1.09 29.92 38 127
096.1787 7 Superior's Boy 6-1 Loveberry J Robertson McLean W
095.1193 3 Giant Pulpit 15-1 Harr K Vance Thomas D. 16.80 2.20 57.14 4 7
094.4963 9 Daaher's Success 10-1 Eramia R E Trout C. R.
093.3923 4 Harlanday 6-1 Lara E Williamson Brian C 16.80 2.20 57.14 4 7
Rating P# Horse Name Profitable Condition (if top rated horse)
100.0000 2 E Rated(b+) COM Horse Best Finish and LeadPack
099.0139 1 Earnednevergiven Race Entries Not GT 5
096.9813 6 Sweet Idi (none)
096.8468 5 Alexandros Race Entries Not GT 5
096.5479 8 Fault Line Horse Best Jockey
096.1787 7 Superior's Boy (none)
095.1193 3 Giant Pulpit Horse Carries Appr Wgt
094.4963 9 Daaher's Success (none)
093.3923 4 Harlanday Horse Carries Appr Wgt

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-21-2019, 08:48 AM

Thursday - Session 1
David Schwab

This Thursday afternoon’s college basketball betting action marks the start of the first full round of games in this year’s NCAA Tournament. Minnesota is the No. 10 seed in the East Region and it will face No. 7 Louisville in the opening tip. Also in the East, No. 14 Yale takes on No. 3 LSU.

In the opening game in the Midwest Region, No. 12 New Mexico State faces No. 5 Auburn and in an early matchup in the West Region, No. 13 Vermont squares off against No. 4 Florida State.

East Region (Des Moines, IA.)

No. 10 Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. No. 7 Louisville Cardinals (CBS, 12:15 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Louisville -5 ½, 135

Betting Matchup

Minnesota was seventh in the Big Ten this season at 9-11 straight-up in conference play. A decent run in the Big Ten Tournament that included an important 75-73 upset against Purdue as a 10-point underdog proved to be enough to land a spot in the 68-team field. The Golden Gophers were an even 17-17 against the spread this season, but they were able to cover in four of their last six games.

The Cardinals lost some major ground down the stretch of the regular season with six SU losses in their last eight games. After hammering Notre Dame by 22 points in the opening game of the ACC Tournament, that run came to a quick end with an 83-70 loss to North Carolina as seven-point underdogs. Louisville did manage to cover in three of its final four games with the total staying UNDER or ending as a PUSH in seven of its last nine outings.

Betting Trends

-- The Golden Gophers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss and the total has gone OVER in five of their last six NCAA Tournament games.

-- The Cardinals have a 10-3-1 record ATS in their last 14 games against the Big Ten with the total staying UNDER in five of their last seven games against this conference.

-- These two have met twice before with the series tied 1-1 both SU and ATS. The total went OVER in each contest.

East Region (Jacksonville, FL.)

No. 14 Yale Bulldogs vs. No. 3 LSU Tigers (TruTV, 12:40 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: LSU -7, 159 ½

Betting Matchup

Yale punched its ticket to the Big Dance by beating Harvard 97-85 as a four-point favorite in the recent Ivy League Tournament title game. Alex Copeland scored a season-high 25 points to pace the win. SU losses to Harvard, Columbia and Penn in the Bulldogs’ last five regular season games dropped them to 10-4 in conference play and 22-7 SU overall. They failed to cover in four of five games this season closing as an underdog.

LSU set the pace in the SEC regular season at 16-2 SU, but the Tigers fizzled out early in the conference tournament surrounded by off-court issues dogging the program. They dropped a 76-73 decision against Florida as 3 ½-point favorites on a last-second three-point shot after blowing a 13-point second-half lead. That was the first time LSU failed to cover in its previous six games as part of an overall record of 26-6 SU and 19-12-1 ATS.

Betting Trends

-- The Bulldogs have covered the spread in 11 of their last 14 neutral-site games with the total staying UNDER or ending as a PUSH in four of the last five games played at a neutral site.

-- The Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a SU loss and the total has stayed UNDER in eight of their last nine games in this tournament.

Midwest Region (Salt Lake City, UT.)

No. 12 New Mexico State Aggies vs. No. 5 Auburn Tigers (TNT, 1:30 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Auburn -6 ½, 143 ½

Betting Matchup

The Aggies have been the class of the Western Athletic Conference all season long with a SU 15-1 record in conference play. This is part of an overall 30-4 record while going 17-15-1 ATS. Their current SU winning streak stands at 19 games, but their record ATS during this impressive run slips to 9-9-1. New Mexico State is scoring 78.1 points per game with four different players averaging at least 10 points.

Auburn was fourth on the list in the SEC this season at 11-7 SU with a 26-9 record overall. Starting with a road win against Georgia to close out the month of February, the Tigers have won their last eight games SU. This includes a dominant 84-64 victory against Tennessee as five-point underdogs in Sunday’s SEC Tournament Championship. They went 5-1 ATS over their last six games. Auburn is averaging79.4 PPG this year with 80 points or more in four of its last seven games.

Betting Trends

-- The Aggies have failed to cover in five of their last six NCAA Tournament games with the total going OVER in four of their last five games after covering ATS in their previous game.

-- The Tigers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight neutral-site games. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in four of their last five NCAA Tournament games.

West Region (Hartford, CT.)

No. 13 Vermont Catamounts vs. No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (TBS, 2:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Florida State -10, 134

Betting Matchup

As the top team in the America East at 14-2 SU with a 27-6 record overall, Vermont kept things rolling with a trio of lopsided victories in the AEC Tournament. The Catamounts covered as 10.5-point favorites in a 66-49 victory against UMBC in the title game. They bring a SU six-game winning streak into Thursday’s contest while going an even 3-3 ATS. Vermont is 2-1-1 ATS this season closing as an underdog.

Florida State’s run all the way to the ACC Tournament’s title game helped improve its position in the NCAA Tournament. The Seminoles were the only other ACC team than Duke to beat Virginia this season with a 69-59 victory against the Cavaliers in the semifinals as 8 ½-point underdogs. They lost to Duke 73-63 as seven-point underdogs in the title game. The total stayed UNDER 146.5 points against the Blue Devils and it has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight games.

Betting Trends

-- The Catamounts have a 1-4 record ATS in five previous games in this tournament with the total staying UNDER in six of their last eight NCAA Tournament games.

-- The Seminoles are 8-2-2 ATS in their last 12 games played at a neutral site and the total has stayed UNDER in nine of those 12 games.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-21-2019, 08:48 AM

Thursday - Session 2
Kevin Rogers

East Region (Des Moines, IA)

No. 15 Bradley vs. No. 2 Michigan State (CBS, 2:45 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Michigan State -18 ½, 133 ½

The Spartans (28-6 SU, 24-10 ATS) captured the Big 10 tournament crown after knocking off rival Michigan for the third time this season, 65-60 in Sunday’s championship game in Chicago. MSU rebounded nicely from a three-game skid in early February to win seven of its final eight regular season games, while picking up three wins in three days at the United Center for its first Big 10 tournament title since 2016.

The Braves (20-14 SU, 16-17 ATS) were one of the shocking teams to receive an automatic bid to the Big Dance as Bradley won the Missouri Valley Conference tournament as the #5 seed. Bradley’s three victories in the tournament came by a total of eight points, culminated by a victory of Northern Iowa in the championship game, 57-54 after trailing by 18 points in the second half.

Amazingly, Bradley began MVC play at 0-5 before winning nine of their next 13 games, which included a loss at Missouri State in which it scored only 37 points. The Braves are riding an 8-4 ATS run in the underdog role, while receiving double-digit points for the first time this season. Bradley will slow things down as it has drilled the UNDER in seven of the past nine games, including UNDERS in the MVC tournament against Loyola-Chicago (118) and Northern Iowa (118 ½).

Michigan State covered in nine of 15 opportunities as a favorite of 10 points or more, but failed to cash as a double-digit favorite in both NCAA tournament games last season. The Spartans held off Bucknell as 14 ½-point favorites in an 82-78 win before getting bounced by Syracuse in the second round, 55-53 as 10-point chalk. Michigan State and Bradley last met in December 2008 in East Lansing as the Spartans won, 75-59 as 15-point favorites.

East Region (Jacksonville, FL)

No. 11 Belmont vs. No. 6 Maryland (truTV - 3:10 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Maryland -3, 147

The Ohio Valley Conference doesn’t normally send more than one team to the NCAA tournament. Murray State received the automatic bid for winning the conference tournament, but Belmont (27-5 SU, 20-10-1 ATS) picked up a rare at-large bid from a mid-major conference. The Bruins were relegated to the play-in game in Dayton, but pulled away from Temple, 81-70 to cash as 2 ½-point favorites and pick up their first ever NCAA tournament win after seven losses.

Maryland (22-10 SU, 16-15-1 ATS) jumped out to a 7-1 record in Big 10 play before splitting its final 12 conference affairs. The Terrapins were one and done in the conference tournament for the third straight season after getting shocked by Nebraska, 69-61 as 6 ½-point favorites. Maryland defeated several tournament teams down the stretch by beating Minnesota, Ohio State, Iowa, and Purdue in the final month, but also suffered double-digit road losses at Michigan and Penn State.

Belmont looks to become the ninth team since the field expanded to 68 teams in 2011 to win the play-in game then grab a victory in its first round contest. The Bruins closed the regular season on a 13-game winning streak, while the only loss since mid-January came to Murray State in the OVC tournament, 77-65. Belmont has topped the 80-point mark in 12 of the past 14 games, while owning a 3-1 ATS mark in the underdog role this season.

The Terps are making their first NCAA tournament appearance since falling to Xavier in the first round of the 2017 Big Dance. Maryland has covered only once in its past four opportunities as a favorite in the NCAA tournament since 2015, as the Terps are facing Belmont for the first time ever.

Midwest Region (Salt Lake City, UT)

No. 13 Northeastern vs. No. 4 Kansas (TNT, 4:00 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Kansas -6 ½, 143

It wasn’t a typical season in Lawrence as Kansas (25-9 SU, 16-18 ATS) failed to capture at least a piece of the Big 12 regular season title for the first time since 2004. The Jayhawks reached the conference tournament title game in their backyard of Kansas City, but KU was bounced by a red-hot Iowa State squad. Kansas owns a dreadful 4-10 ATS record in its last 14 games away from Allen Fieldhouse, while losing to tournament teams Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas State, and Kentucky on the road since January.

Northeastern (23-10 SU, 18-12-3 ATS) downed Colonial regular season champion Hofstra in the tournament title game, 82-74. The Huskies are making their first appearance in the Big Dance since falling to Notre Dame in 2015 by four points, while seeking their first tourney victory since 1984.

It was a rough start to the season ATS-wise for Northeastern, who began 4-8-2 ATS the first 14 games in spite of beating Harvard and Alabama as underdogs. The Huskies caught fire from a pointspread perspective by posting a 14-4-1 ATS mark in the past 19 contests, while three of their previous four losses have come by three points or less.

Kansas is not listed as a number one or two seed for the first time since 2009, while sitting as a fourth seed for the first time since 2006, when the Jayhawks lost to Bradley in the first round. That was the last time KU was bounced in its first game of the tournament, as the Jayhawks have won in the opening round the last five years by double-digits apiece.

West Region (Hartford, CT)

No. 12 Murray State vs. No. 5 Marquette (TBS, 4:30 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Marquette -4, 149 ½

One of the more intriguing games to take place on Thursday features two of the nation’s leading scorers. Marquette guard Markus Howard averaged 25.0 points per game, including a 53-point performance in an overtime victory at Creighton in January when he knocked down 10 three-pointers. Murray State guard Ja Morant nearly equaled Howard’s average at 24.6 ppg, while putting up 36 points in the Ohio Valley title game win against Belmont.

The Golden Eagles (24-9 SU, 19-14 ATS) spent most of Big East play at the top of the conference standings by winning 12 of their first 14 league games. Marquette fell apart late by dropping its final four Big East contests to slip to second place behind Villanova, including outright home favorite losses to Creighton and Georgetown. The Golden Eagles avenged a pair of losses to St. John’s by blowing out the Red Storm in the Big East semifinals, but were two and barbeque in New York after losing by two points to Seton Hall.

The Racers (27-4 SU, 19-10 ATS) wrapped up the OVC regular season title with an impressive 18-2 mark, while last suffering a loss against Jacksonville State on January 31. Murray State posted a perfect 4-0 record in the underdog role this season, including covers in road losses at Alabama and Auburn. Last season, Murray State reached the NCAA tournament but was an early victim as the Racers lost to West Virginia, 85-68 as 10-point underdogs.

Marquette and Murray State have met only once and it occurred in the 2012 NCAA tournament when the Golden Eagles beat the Racers in the second round, 62-53 as five-point favorites. The last time Marquette made the tournament was 2017 when the Golden Eagles were blown out by eventual Final Four participant South Carolina, 93-73 in the first round.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-21-2019, 08:49 AM

Thursday - Session 3
Brian Edwards

West Region (Des Moines, IA)

No. 10 Florida vs. No. 7 Nevada (TNT, 6:50 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Nevada -2 ½, 133 ½

-- As of Wednesday night, most books had seventh-seeded Nevada (29-4 straight up, 17-14 against the spread) installed as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 133.5. The Gators were +120 on the money line (risk $100 to win $120).

-- Nevada is mired in a 1-7 ATS slump in its past eight games, losing three of those games outright. The Wolf Pack lost 65-57 at San Diego State, 81-76 at Utah State and 65-56 vs. San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Tournament semifinals.

-- Eric Musselman’s squad was without senior forward Jordan Caroline at the MWC Tournament. He sat out due to an Achilles issue but is listed as ‘probable’ vs. UF. Caroline averages 17.3 points and 9.6 rebounds while shooting at a 38.0 percent clip from 3-point land.

-- In the MWC semifinal loss to the Aztecs, Nevada had an abysmal 5/12 assist-to-turnover ratio, made only 37.9 percent of its field-goal attempts, connected on merely 6-of-24 launches from downtown (25.0%) and hit just 6-of-13 free-throw attempts (46.2%). Cody Martin had 16 points and six rebounds, while Tre-Shawn Thurman finished with 11 points, 11 rebounds and a pair of blocked shots. Caleb Martin was limited to 24 minutes of action before fouling out. He had only eight points and four rebounds.

-- Nevada is No. 25 at KenPom.com, producing a 7-1 record against K-Pom Top-100 opponents. The Wolf Pack’s other defeats came against San Diego St. (twice; No. 122) and at New Mexico (No. 183). They also lost at Utah St. (No. 33) by an 81-76 count.

-- Nevada’s best home wins came over BYU, South Dakota State (and The Daum-inator), Utah State, Fresno State and San Diego State. The Wolf Pack won at USC, at Utah, at Fresno State and downed Arizona State on a neutral floor.

-- Caleb Martin averages 19.2 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.4 steals and 0.8 blocked shots per game. Cody Martin averages 11.7 points, 5.1 assists, 4.5 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 0.7 BPG. He has a stellar 167/62 assist-to-turnover ratio.

-- Nevada is 5-3-1 ATS with two outright losses in nine games as a single-digit ‘chalk.’

-- Florida (19-15 SU, 16-18 ATS) ripped off five consecutive wins over a two-week stretch starting in mid-February. However, UF lost 61-55 to Georgia as an 11-point home favorite on March 2. Then on March 6, the Gators came out on the wrong side of a 79-78 decision vs. LSU in overtime. In its regular-season finale, Mike White’s club led at Kentucky by a 31-30 score at halftime, only to go more than seven minutes of the second half without a bucket in a 66-57 defeat. Therefore, Florida went to Nashville needing at least one and probably two victories to earn an at-large berth to the NCAA Tournament.

-- The first test came against Arkansas, a team Florida had beaten 57-51 in Fayetteville. In Nashville, UF trounced the Razorbacks 66-50 as a 3.5-point ‘chalk.’ Freshman forward Keyontae Johnson was the catalyst with 20 points and 12 rebounds on 8-of-14 shooting from the field and 3-of-5 makes from beyond the arc. Senior guard KeVaughn Allen, who finished his career 7-1 against the Hogs after starring at North Little Rock HS during his prep years, dropped 17 points in his last game against Arkansas.

-- In the SEC Tournament quarterfinals, Florida and LSU met in a rubber match after the road team prevailed in overtime of both regular-season encounters. The Tigers, playing without their head coach Will Wade, led by as many as 13 in the first half and still maintained a double-digit advantage with 13:37 remaining. But the Gators slowly trimmed the deficit and then got a huge momentum shift with a 3-pointer that counted as an away-from-the-ball foul was called. Then LSU interim head coach Tony Benford was whistled for a technical that created four FTAs. With the game tied in the closing moments, Johnson penetrated to the hole before dishing out to freshman point guard Andrew Nembhard, who caught the ball at the top of the key and drained a step-in trey with one tick remaining.

-- Nembhard’s game-winner gave Florida a 76-73 win as a 3.5-point underdog. He finished with 20 points, four rebounds and six assists without a turnover. All five starters were in double figures including Johnson, who had 16 points, 10 boards, four assists and four steals. Kevarrius Hayes finished with 11 points and eight rebounds on 5-of-7 FGAs.

-- In the SEC Tournament semifinals, Florida dropped a 65-62 decision to Auburn when the officials swallowed their whistles in the final seconds despite the fact that multiple AU players were intentionally fouling Nembhard while he was in the air trying to launch a potential game-trying 3-pointer. UF had led 34-30 at intermission. The game was decided by UF’s 18 turnovers compared to just four for the Tigers, who had 56 FGAs compared to only 38 for Florida. The Gators shot at a 60.5 percent clip and dominated the glass with a 29-16 rebounding edge. Jalen Hudson had 16 points, four rebounds and four assists, while Hayes finished with 16 points, 12 boards and two blocked shots.

-- Florida is in the NCAA Tournament for the third year in a row and the 20th time in program history (The first came in 1987 when the M&M Boys led UF past N.C. St. and Purdue before losing to eventual runner-up Syracuse in the East Region semifinals at the Meadowlands.). White has a 4-2 record in six NCAA Tourney games. UF owns a 43-17 record in 60 all-time Tournament games, advancing to 11 Sweet 16 appearances, 10 Elite Eights and five Final Fours. The Gators have two national titles, one runner-up finish in 2000, and are the last program to repeat as national champs (Duke in ’91 and ’92 was the last to do it beforehand).

-- Like UF, Nevada is also in the Tournament for a third straight season. Musselman led the Wolf Pack to the Sweet 16 last year before losing by one to Loyola-Chicago in a thriller. They have a 6-8 record in 14 Tournament games.

-- The ‘under’ is 19-13 overall for Nevada, but the ‘over’ has hit in four of its last six games.

-- The ‘under’ is 23-11 overall for the Gators, who have seen the ‘under’ go 16-3 in their games played on the road or at a neutral venue.

Midwest Region (Jacksonville, FL)

No. 15 Abilene Christian vs. No. 2 Kentucky (CBS, 7:10 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Kentucky -21, 132

-- As of Wednesday night, most spots had second-seeded Kentucky (27-6 SU, 17-16 ATS) listed as a 22-point favorite with a total of 132. The Wildcats had 20/1 odds to win outright at The Westgate SuperBook. For first-half bets, UK was favored by 13 points with a total of 61.5 points, and the Wildcats were +900 on the money line (risk $100 to win $900).

-- This is the opening game of the Evening Session at Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Jacksonville, FL. The winner will face the survivor of the 7/10 matchup between Wofford and Seton Hall on Saturday.

-- Kentucky star P.J. Washington is listed as ‘probable’ with a foot injury, but he’s been seen by media members in a walking boot several times this week. Washington is UK’s leading scorer (14.8 PPG) and rebounder (7.6 RPG).

-- Kentucky should have fresh legs after playing only twice at the SEC Tournament. John Calipari’s team beat up on Alabama 73-55 as a 12.5-point favorite in the quarterfinals. Tyler Herro was the catalyst with 20 points, six rebounds, two steals, two assists and one block. Washington contributed 10 points, 12 boards, four assists, four blocked shots and a pair of steals. After nearly missing a month injured, senior center Reid Travis returned to provide eight points, seven rebounds and three rejections in 23 minutes of playing time.

-- Kentucky allowed a late lead to get away in the semifinals, dropping the rubber match with Tennessee by an 82-78 count. The ‘Cats led by seven with 2:45 remaining, only to get outscored 17-6 to end the game. The Volunteers won outright as 1.5-point underdogs. All five UK starters were in double figures led by Washington’s 16 points. Ashton Hagans had 10 points and 12 assists, while Keldon Johnson finished with 15 points and six boards.

-- Kentucky has posted a 6-9 spread record in 15 games as a double-digit favorite.

-- Abilene Christian (27-6 SU, 16-13 ATS) is led by Jaren Lewis, who averages team-bests in scoring (13.7 PPG), rebounding (6.2 RPG) and blocked shots (0.6 BPG). Jaylen Franklin (10.2 PPG) averages team-highs in assists (4.9 APG), FG percentage (54.0%) and steals (1.8 SPG). He has a 161/69 assist-to-turnover ratio. Jalone Friday (13.1 PPG) and Payten Ricks (11.7 PPG) also average double figures and shoot it well from deep with 37.7 and 40.8 percentages on attempts from beyond the arc.

-- Abilene Christian has won six straight games while going 5-1 ATS. The Wildcats beat New Orleans 77-60 as 4.5-point favorites in the finals of the Southland Tournament. Lewis led the way with 20 points, six rebounds and three steals, while Franklin produced 16 points and six assists.

-- ACU is ranked 19th in the nation in scoring defense, limiting opponents to 63.1 PPG. The Wildcats are ranked 17th in the country in 3-point accuracy (38.6%) and 41st in FG percentage (47.4%).

-- ACU is No. 145 at K-Pom, facing only one for in the Top 150. Texas Tech destroyed the Wildcats 82-48 in Lubbock on Dec. 15.

-- The ‘over’ has hit in back-to-back games for the Wildcats to improve to 15-14 overall.

-- The ‘under’ is on a 6-2 roll for Kentucky to improve to 21-12 overall.

South Region (Hartford, CT)

No. 11 Saint Mary's vs. No. 6 Villanova (TBS, 7:20 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Villanova -4, 130

-- As of Wednesday night, most books had Villanova (25-9 SU, 20-14 ATS) installed as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 130. The Gaels were +180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).

-- Villanova went to New York City for the Big East Tournament in a serious slump. Jay Wright’s team had gone 2-4 both SU and ATS in its last six regular-season games. The Wildcats had lost by double-digit margins at Georgetown and at Xavier. However, ‘Nova beat Providence (73-62), Xavier (71-67 in overtime) and Seton Hall (74-72 in the finals) to win the league’s automatic bid and draw a No. 6 seed.

-- Eric Paschall led ‘Nova past The Hall in the finals at MSG in NYC by scoring 17 points and pulling down eight rebounds. Saddiq Bey added 16 points, 10 rebounds, three assists, two steals and a pair of blocked shots. Phil Booth finished with 16 points, four boards and three assists, while Jermaine Samuels contributed 12 points and seven rebounds.

-- Villanova owns a 10-9 spread record in 19 games as a single-digit favorite.

-- Villanova has won two of the past three national championships. The key pieces that remain from those teams are Booth and Paschall, a pair of seniors. Booth averages team-highs in both scoring (18.6 PPG) and assists (3.8 APG), while Paschall (16.5 PPG) averages a team-best 6.2 RPG. Collin Gillespie (11.1 PPG) has a 94/51 assist-to-turnover ratio and paces the Wildcats in FT accuracy (83.5%). However, Gillespie is slumping and has scored in double figured only three times in the past 10 outings.

-- Saint Mary’s (22-11 SU, 19-14 ATS) was looking at an NIT bid until it went to Las Vegas and won the WCC Tournament with a 60-47 victory over Gonzaga as a 15-point underdog. Jordan Ford led the way with 17 points, while Jordan Hunter added 12 points and 15 rebounds. Tanner Krebs finished with 13 points and three steals.

-- Saint Mary’s has compiled a 2-4 spread record with one outright win in six games as an underdog.

-- Saint Mary’s has won seven of its past eight games with the lone defeat coming in its regular-season finale against Gonzaga.

-- Ford paces the Gaels in scoring (21.3 PPG) and has scored at least 15 points in eight consecutive contests. Malik Fitts (15.3 PPG, 7.6 RPG) is another double-figure scorer who has drained 40.3 percent of his 3-balls. Hunter provides an interior presence and averages 7.9 points, 6.8 rebounds and 1.4 blocked shots per game.

-- Randy Bennett’s team is ranked 29th in the country in scoring defense, limiting foes to 64.4 PPG. At the other end, the Gaels are 34th in the nation in 3-point accuracy (37.8%), 42nd in FG percentage (47.4%) and 48th in FT shooting (74.5%).

-- These schools last met in the second round of the 2010 NCAA Tournament when Saint Mary’s won a 75-68 decision as a four-point underdog. Omar Samhan buried 13-of-16 FGAs and scored a game-high 32 points. Matthew Dellavedova added 14 points for the Gaels.

-- The ‘over’ has hit in four consecutive Villanova games, but it has seen the ‘under’ go 19-12-2 overall.

-- The ‘under’ is on a 38-17-2 run for the Gaels in their past 57 games. They’ve seen the ‘under’ go 8-1 in their last nine games to improve to 19-13-1 overall this season.

West Region (Salt Lake City, UT)

No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson vs. No. 1 Gonzaga (truTV, 7:27 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Gonzaga -27, 152 ½

-- As of Wednesday night, most spots had Mark Few’s team listed as a 27.5-point favorite with a total of 152.5. William Hill was offering FDU on the money line for 50/1 odds!

-- Gonzaga (30-3 SU, 21-12 ATS) has compiled a 17-10 spread record in 27 games as a double-digit ‘chalk.’

-- Gonzaga has a 4-3 record against teams in the field. The Bulldogs have wins over Saint Mary’s (twice), Duke and Washington, but they’ve lost to Saint Mary’s, North Carolina and Tennessee. Other notable scalps include neutral-court wins over Arizona and Illinois, in addition to victories at Creighton and at home over Texas A&M.

-- Gonzaga is led by Rui Hachimura, who averages 20.1 points, 6.6 rebounds and 1.1 SPG. He’s hitting 60.9 percent of his FGAs and 46.9 percent of his treys. Brandon Clarke (16.5 PPG) leads the Bulldogs in rebounding (8.4 RPG), FG percentage (69.3%) and blocked shots (3.0 BPG). Zach Norvell is averaging 15.3 PPG and has a 99/43 assist-to-turnover ratio. Josh Perkins (11.0 PPG) paces Gonzaga in assists (6.4 APG) and steals (1.4 SPG), and he has a 212/68 assist-to-turnover ratio. Perkins has played in more games (149) than any other player in the country.

-- Gonzaga leads the nation in scoring (88.8 PPG), scoring margin (23.8 PPG) and FG percentage (53.2%). The Bulldogs are 16th nationally in FT percentage (76.7%).

-- Gonzaga has been to the NCAA Tournament 21 consecutive times. The Bulldogs are the nation’s only program that’s been to four straight Sweet 16s.

-- Fairleigh Dickinson (21-13 SU, 19-13 ATS) overcame a seven-point intermission deficit to rally for an 82-76 win over Prairie View A&M in Tuesday’s First Four showdown in Dayton. The Knights covered the number as two-point ‘chalk,’ while the 158 combined points went ‘over’ the 148.5-point total. Darnell Edge splashed the nets at a 7-of-9 clip from 3-point territory in a 33-point effort. Jahlil Jenkins took over at crunch time by making plays galore and finished with 22 points, four rebounds and six assists without a turnover.

-- Edge (16.9 PPG) was a first-team All-Northeast Conference selection who led the league in 3-point accuracy at 46.9 percent. Jenkins (13.8 PPG) leads the Knights in assists (4.6 APG) and steals (1.3 SPG).

-- FDU comes to Utah on a nine-game winning streak and it has an 8-1 spread record during this span.

-- FDU is 8-6 ATS with four outright wins in 14 games as an underdog. The Knights are 3-0 ATS as double-digit underdogs with one outright victory (at Princeton).

-- FDU is fifth in the country in 3-point shooting, draining 40.4 percent of their bombs from long distance.

-- The win over PVAM was the first in the Tournament in the 75-year history of FDU’s hoops program.

-- The ‘under’ is 17-16 overall for Gonzaga.

-- The ‘under’ is 17-15 overall for the Knights.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-21-2019, 08:49 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Thursday, March 21

Minnesota @ Louisville

Game 773-774
March 21, 2019 @ 12:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
67.924
Louisville
68.938
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Louisville
by 1
126
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Louisville
by 5
136
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(+5); Under

Yale @ LSU

Game 767-768
March 21, 2019 @ 12:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Yale
62.405
LSU
66.272
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LSU
by 4
160
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LSU
by 7
157
Dunkel Pick:
Yale
(+7); Over

New Mexico St @ Auburn

Game 781-782
March 21, 2019 @ 1:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Mexico St
70.454
Auburn
72.480
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Auburn
by 2
152
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Auburn
by 6
145 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Mexico St
(+6); Over

Vermont @ Florida State

Game 763-764
March 21, 2019 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Vermont
64.770
Florida State
70.285
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida State
by 5 1/2
138
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Florida State
by 9
133 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Vermont
(+9); Over

Bradley @ Michigan State

Game 775-776
March 21, 2019 @ 2:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Bradley
57.584
Michigan State
74.001
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan State
by 16 1/2
130
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan State
by 18 1/2
133 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Bradley
(+18 1/2); Under

Belmont @ Maryland

Game 765-766
March 21, 2019 @ 3:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Belmont
66.999
Maryland
65.431
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Belmont
by 1 1/2
151
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Maryland
by 3
146 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Belmont
(+3); Over

Northeastern @ Kansas

Game 783-784
March 21, 2019 @ 4:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Northeastern
63.255
Kansas
66.250
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas
by 3
134
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas
by 6 1/2
143
Dunkel Pick:
Northeastern
(+6 1/2); Under

Murray State @ Marquette

Game 761-762
March 21, 2019 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Murray State
67.424
Marquette
65.924
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Murray State
by 1 1/2
158
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Marquette
by 3 1/2
149 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Murray State
(+3 1/2); Over

Florida @ Nevada

Game 777-778
March 21, 2019 @ 6:50 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida
65.527
Nevada
71.617
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Nevada
by 6
126
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nevada
by 2 1/2
133
Dunkel Pick:
Nevada
(-2 1/2); Under

Florida Atlantic @ Charleston Southern

Game 793-794
March 21, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida Atlantic
52.347
Charleston Southe
54.288
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Charleston Southe
by 2
144
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Charleston Southe
by 4 1/2
141
Dunkel Pick:
Florida Atlantic
(+4 1/2); Over

St. Francis-NY @ Hampton

Game 795-796
March 21, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Francis-NY
45.164
Hampton
50.598
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Hampton
by 5 1/2
147
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Hampton
by 9 1/2
157 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
St. Francis-NY
(+9 1/2); Under

Abilene Christian @ Kentucky

Game 771-772
March 21, 2019 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Abilene Christian
54.416
Kentucky
77.819
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kentucky
by 23 1/2
127
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kentucky
by 22
132
Dunkel Pick:
Kentucky
(-22); Under

St Mary's @ Villanova

Game 757-758
March 21, 2019 @ 7:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St Mary's
66.513
Villanova
73.119
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Villanova
by 6 1/2
123
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Villanova
by 4
130 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Villanova
(-4); Under

Fair Dickinson @ Gonzaga

Game 785-786
March 21, 2019 @ 7:27 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Fair Dickinson
51.288
Gonzaga
81.435
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Gonzaga
by 30
160
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Gonzaga
by 27 1/2
152 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Gonzaga
(-27 1/2); Over

Kent State @ LA-Monroe

Game 891-892
March 21, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kent State
53.664
LA-Monroe
59.371
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA-Monroe
by 5 1/2
162
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA-Monroe
by 3 1/2
153 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA-Monroe
(-3 1/2); Over

Montana @ Michigan

Game 779-780
March 21, 2019 @ 9:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Montana
56.822
Michigan
77.398
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan
by 19
139
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan
by 15
130
Dunkel Pick:
Michigan
(-15); Over

Seton Hall @ Wofford

Game 769-770
March 21, 2019 @ 9:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seton Hall
64.532
Wofford
69.018
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Wofford
by 4 1/2
135
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Wofford
by 2 1/2
144 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Wofford
(-2 1/2); Under

Old Dominion @ Purdue

Game 759-760
March 21, 2019 @ 9:50 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Old Dominion
57.724
Purdue
77.453
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Purdue
by 19 1/2
117
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Purdue
by 12 1/2
126
Dunkel Pick:
Purdue
(-12 1/2); Under

Baylor @ Syracuse

Game 787-788
March 21, 2019 @ 9:57 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baylor
64.194
Syracuse
67.730
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Syracuse
by 3 1/2
127
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Syracuse
by 1 1/2
130 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Syracuse
(-1 1/2); Under

CS-Bakersfield @ CS-Fullerton

Game 889-890
March 21, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
CS-Bakersfield
46.203
CS-Fullerton
56.224
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
CS-Fullerton
by 10
131
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
CS-Fullerton
by 6 1/2
138 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
CS-Fullerton
(-6 1/2); Under

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-21-2019, 08:49 AM

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, March 21

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST MARYS-CA (22 - 11) vs. VILLANOVA (25 - 9) - 3/21/2019, 7:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST MARYS-CA is 84-116 ATS (-43.6 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
ST MARYS-CA is 90-119 ATS (-40.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
VILLANOVA is 48-26 ATS (+19.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 48-26 ATS (+19.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a NCAA tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 44-21 ATS (+20.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OLD DOMINION (26 - 8) vs. PURDUE (23 - 9) - 3/21/2019, 9:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OLD DOMINION is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
OLD DOMINION is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) after a conference game this season.
OLD DOMINION is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
OLD DOMINION is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less this season.
OLD DOMINION is 152-202 ATS (-70.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
OLD DOMINION is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MURRAY ST (27 - 4) vs. MARQUETTE (24 - 9) - 3/21/2019, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARQUETTE is 59-38 ATS (+17.2 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game since 1997.
MURRAY ST is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
MURRAY ST is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
MARQUETTE is 29-50 ATS (-26.0 Units) in road games in March games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VERMONT (27 - 6) vs. FLORIDA ST (27 - 7) - 3/21/2019, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 96-69 ATS (+20.1 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 since 1997.
FLORIDA ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA ST is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BELMONT (27 - 5) vs. MARYLAND (22 - 10) - 3/21/2019, 3:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BELMONT is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
BELMONT is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
BELMONT is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BELMONT is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

YALE (22 - 7) vs. LSU (26 - 6) - 3/21/2019, 12:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
YALE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
LSU is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
LSU is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
YALE is 91-65 ATS (+19.5 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
YALE is 54-32 ATS (+18.8 Units) after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SETON HALL (20 - 13) vs. WOFFORD (29 - 4) - 3/21/2019, 9:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WOFFORD is 51-35 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WOFFORD is 51-35 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WOFFORD is 14-7 ATS (+6.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
WOFFORD is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in March games over the last 2 seasons.
WOFFORD is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.
WOFFORD is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival this season.
WOFFORD is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WOFFORD is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
SETON HALL is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SETON HALL is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
SETON HALL is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a neutral court game where the total is 140 to 144.5 over the last 2 seasons.
SETON HALL is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
SETON HALL is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
SETON HALL is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
SETON HALL is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ABILENE CHRISTIAN (27 - 6) vs. KENTUCKY (27 - 6) - 3/21/2019, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 92-65 ATS (+20.5 Units) in March games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (21 - 13) vs. LOUISVILLE (20 - 13) - 3/21/2019, 12:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 95-132 ATS (-50.2 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 26-45 ATS (-23.5 Units) in road games after scoring 60 points or less since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BRADLEY (20 - 14) vs. MICHIGAN ST (28 - 6) - 3/21/2019, 2:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) after a conference game this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLORIDA (19 - 15) vs. NEVADA (29 - 4) - 3/21/2019, 6:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 7-14 ATS (-8.4 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.
NEVADA is 57-41 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEVADA is 57-41 ATS (+11.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEVADA is 51-35 ATS (+12.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEVADA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEVADA is 67-41 ATS (+21.9 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
NEVADA is 39-25 ATS (+11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 81-53 ATS (+22.7 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MONTANA (26 - 8) vs. MICHIGAN (28 - 6) - 3/21/2019, 9:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 44-28 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 44-28 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 35-24 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MICHIGAN is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN is 1-0 against the spread versus MONTANA over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN is 1-0 straight up against MONTANA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW MEXICO ST (30 - 4) vs. AUBURN (26 - 9) - 3/21/2019, 1:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO ST is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a neutral court underdog of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997.
NEW MEXICO ST is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
NEW MEXICO ST is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) in March games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NORTHEASTERN (23 - 10) vs. KANSAS (25 - 9) - 3/21/2019, 4:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NORTHEASTERN is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.
NORTHEASTERN is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 7 or more days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NORTHEASTERN is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) after a conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FARLEIGH DICKINSON (21 - 13) vs. GONZAGA (30 - 3) - 3/21/2019, 7:27 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GONZAGA is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games this season.
GONZAGA is 20-12 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
GONZAGA is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) when the total is 150 to 159.5 this season.
GONZAGA is 19-11 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
FARLEIGH DICKINSON is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games this season.
FARLEIGH DICKINSON is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
FARLEIGH DICKINSON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in March games over the last 3 seasons.
FARLEIGH DICKINSON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing with one or less days rest this season.
FARLEIGH DICKINSON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
FARLEIGH DICKINSON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BAYLOR (19 - 13) vs. SYRACUSE (20 - 13) - 3/21/2019, 9:57 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SYRACUSE is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.
SYRACUSE is 83-58 ATS (+19.2 Units) in all neutral court games since 1997.
SYRACUSE is 83-58 ATS (+19.2 Units) when playing on a neutral court since 1997.
SYRACUSE is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) off a loss against a conference rival this season.
SYRACUSE is 83-59 ATS (+18.1 Units) in all tournament games since 1997.
BAYLOR is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after allowing 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLA ATLANTIC (17 - 15) at CHARLESTON SO (17 - 15) - 3/21/2019, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLA ATLANTIC is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
FLA ATLANTIC is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLESTON SO is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after a conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST FRANCIS-NY (17 - 15) at HAMPTON (15 - 16) - 3/21/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HAMPTON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all home games this season.
HAMPTON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CS-BAKERSFIELD (16 - 15) at CS-FULLERTON (16 - 17) - 3/21/2019, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CS-BAKERSFIELD is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in March games since 1997.
CS-BAKERSFIELD is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
CS-FULLERTON is 11-20 ATS (-11.0 Units) in all games this season.
CS-FULLERTON is 11-20 ATS (-11.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
CS-FULLERTON is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all home games this season.
CS-FULLERTON is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in home lined games this season.
CS-FULLERTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in home games after a conference game this season.
CS-FULLERTON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KENT ST (22 - 10) at LA-MONROE (18 - 15) - 3/21/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA-MONROE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 44-25 ATS (+16.5 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-21-2019, 08:51 AM

NCAAB

Thursday, March 21

Thursday’s games
Richard Pitino vs the school that canned his father two years ago; Gophers won four of last six games- they don’t take many 3’s or sub a lot. Cardinals are 4-8 in last 12 games after a 16-5 start; they’re a top 20 team nationally in defensive eFG%. Pitino lost 81-72 as a 5-seed in his only NCAA game as a head coach, in 2017. Mack is 11-8 in NCAA games, 6-2 in first round. Last six years, favorites are 16-8 vs spread in 7-10 games. Last four years, ACC teams are 22-8 in first round; they’re 3-6 vs spread in last nine tries as a 1st round underdog. Louisville won its last five first round games. Big 14 teams are 19-7 in last 26 first round games.

LSU is experience team #324 whose coach is suspended for NCAA stuff; they lost in first round of SEC tourney LW. Tigers are a vulnerable favorite here. Yale upset Baylor 79-75 (+6) in a 5-12 game three years ago, their first NCAA game since 1959; Bulldogs shoot 37.4% on arc- they’re #33 experience team that lost in OT at Memphis but lost by 33 at Duke. LSU forces turnovers 20.7% of time; are they just too athletic for Yale? Ivy League teams split their last six first round games (5-1 vs spread). Last six years, underdogs are 14-10 vs spread in 3-14 games. Since 2014, SEC teams are 3-8 vs spread as a single digit favorite in first round games.

New Mexico State hasn’t lost since Jan 3; WAC doesn’t get on TV much, but they’re conference #14- Aggies lost by 3 to Kansas, by 15 to St Mary’s last fall. State lost by 11 to Clemson in NCAA’s LY; they’re experience team #73 that makes 56.6% of its 2’s, 36.2% of its 3’s. Auburn won SEC tourney last week; Tigers won their last eight games; they force turnovers 25.4% of time, #1 in country. Last 11 years, WAC teams are 0-12 SU in NCAA games, 4-8 vs spread; their last SU win was Nevada in 2007. Since 2014, SEC teams are 3-8 vs spread as a single digit favorite in first round gamesLast four years, favorites are 9-7 vs spread in 5-12 games.

Vermont is 24-3 in its last 27 games; last fall, they lost by 8 at Louisville, 16 at Kansas. Becker is 0-2 in NCAA games, losing by 19-10 points (0-2 vs spread) in NCAA games in ’12, ’17. Over last eight years, America East teams are 5-3 vs spread in this round. Catamounts are experience team #251 that plays tempo #285. Florida State forces turnovers 20.3% of time; Seminoles are experience team #82 that won 14 of last 16 games, losing ACC tourney final to Duke. Last five years, ACC teams are 6-12 vs spread as a double digit favorite in this round. Last five years, underdogs are 12-8 vs spread in 4-13 games.

Belmont played four starters 33:00+ in its 80-71 win over Temple Tuesday; Bruins got only five points from their star Windler, but scored 80 anyway. Belmont won at UCLA, lost at Purdue by 11 in its two games vs Power 5 opponents; they’re experience team #250 whose eFG% is #3 in whole country. Maryland went 13-7 in Big 14; they’re 3-4 in last seven games. Terrapins are #350 experience team whose defensive eFG% is #17 in country, but they don’t force many turnovers, only 14.3 per game. Maryland is 9-2 outside Big 14, losing to Virginia/Seton Hall by total of nine points. Turgeon is 8-8 in NCAA games, 6-2 in first round games.

Bradley is in NCAA’s for first time in 13 years; they beat Penn State by 3 in November, in their only top 100 game this season. Braves are experience team #65 that plays slowish pace and makes 36.8% of its 3’s- they haven’t played in 11 days, since Arch Madness ended. Michigan State won Big 14 tourney Sunday; last seven years. they’re 5-2 vs spread in first round games. Spartans won five in row, 10 of last 11 games; they’re experience team #138 whose defensive eFG% is #6 in country. Since 2013, MVC teams are 9-0 SU in this round, and were underdogs in four of those games. MVC teams covered 10 of their last 14 first round games.

Northeastern won seven in row, 16 of last 18 games; they’re experience team #59 that plays pace #252 and shoots 38.8% on arc- their eFG% is #5 in country. Huskies last made NCAAs in 2015, losing 69-65 (+12) as a 14-seed. CAA teams are 0-6 SU in this round the last six years, covering five of those games; since 2009, CAA teams are 11-2 vs spread in this round. Kansas didn’t win regular season or Big X tourney title this year; Jayhawks won last 12 first round games, going 3-0-1 vs spread in last four- last time they lost in first round was last time they were a #4-seed, in 2006. Last five years, underdogs are 12-8 vs spread in 4-13 games.

Murray State won its last 11 games; they’re #234 experience team that shoots 57.2% inside arc, has #21 eFG% in country. Racers lost 85-68 to West Virginia in first round LY; they lost by 5 to Auburn, by 6 to Alabama this year. Marquette lost five of its last six games; they’re shooting 39.3% on arc this season. OVC teams are 0-6 in this round (3-3 vs spread) the last six years; last OVC to win a game was Murray as a #6-seed in 2012 (they lost to Marquette in 2nd round that year). Last four years, favorites are 9-7 vs spread in 5-12 games.

Nevada is 5-3 in its last eight games after starting season 24-1; Wolf Pack starts five 5th-year seniors; their starting 5 are older than the Phoenix Suns’ starters. Wolf Pack shoots 55.1% inside arc, gets 21% of its points from foul line. Florida plays a slow (#346) pace; they force turnovers 22.6% of time. Gators are #271 experience team; they lost four of last six games. Since 2003, Mountain West teams are 14-25 in first round games, 3-5 the last five years; since ’04, SEC teams are 7-9 vs spread as a first round underdog. Last six years, favorites are 16-8 vs spread in 7-10 games. Florida coach White is 4-2 in NCAA’s, 2-0 in first round games.

On February 21, Abilene Christian tossed their leading scorer and another starter off their team; they’re 6-1 since then, and won Southland tourney. Wildcats lost by 34 to Texas Tech in their only game this season against a team ranked in top 150. Since ’07, Southland teams are 3-12 SU in NCAA games, 3-8 vs spread in last 11 tourney games. Kentucky is experience team #351- they are 3-2 in last five games. Wildcats play slowish pace (#265); teams are shooting only 43.6% inside arc against them. Last four years, favorites are 10-6 vs spread in 2-15 games. Wildcats are 2-5 vs spread in their last seven first round games.

Villanova won Big East tourney last week; they’re 25-9, winning five of last six games. Over last five years, Wildcats were in top 12 nationally in defensive efficiency every year, but this season, they’re #73. Villanova is experience team #178 that plays a slow (#333) pace- they get 42.8% of their points behind the arc (#9 in country). Saint Mary’s beat Gonzaga, won WCC tourney to get here; they haven’t played in nine days- they’re experience team #253. Gaels won seven of their last eight games, also play slow tempo (#347); they shoot 37.8% on arc. Saint Mary’s is 3-6 in NCAA games under Bennett, 2-4 in first round games.

FDU was down 7 at the half to Prairie View Tuesday, rallied to win 82-76; they played three guys 40:00 Tuesday- their subs played total of 14:00. Knights are 0-2 vs top 100 teams this season, losing by 35 at Rutgers, 10 at Providence- they’re experience team #151. Gonzaga lost WCC title game nine days ago; they’re 9-0 this season vs teams ranked outside top 200, with all the wins by 20+ points, seven by 30+. Bulldogs’ bench plays minutes #313; if they get way up in this game, do they sit starters earlier to get ready for Baylor-Syracuse winner Saturday? Last four years, #1 seeds are 9-7 against the spread in this round.

Michigan (-11.5) beat Montana 61-47 in first round of NCAA’s LY, after Grizzlies led 10-0 early on; game was 31-28 at half, but Montana shot only 32.1% for night. Teams meet again here; Montana is #6 experience team in country, shooting 38.1% on arc, 56.3% inside arc- they lost by 26 to Creighton, by 19 to Arizona in their highest profile games. Wolverines lost Big 14 tourney finals Sunday; they’re only 4-3 in last seven games. Michigan is experience team #242. Beilein is 17-8 in NCAA games at Michigan, 6-2 in first round. Big Sky teams haven’t won an NCAA game since 2006; they’re 1-6-1 vs spread in their last eight first round games.

SoCon teams lost their last ten first round games, going 5-4-1 vs spread as an underdog, but this year, Wofford is a #7-seed and is favored here. Last time a SoCon team won a first round game was in 2008, when Steph Curry’s Davidson team got to Elite 8 as a 10-seed- they were favored in their first round game. Terriers won their last 20 games, but last fall, they lost by 25 to Kansas, 11 at Miss State, 11 to North Carolina- they beat South Carolina by 20. Wofford makes 41.6% on arc; they’re experience team #135. Seton Hall won four of last five games; Willard is 1-3 in NCAA games, and he was a 6-9-8 seed those years. Pirates are a 10-seed here, and an underdog.

In last four years, Conference USA teams posted first round upsets, as 14-15-12-13 seeds, Old Dominion is 26-8; they play a slow pace (#325) and won 10 of last 12 games. Monarchs won at Syracuse, beat VCU by 10; they’re #149 experience team. ODU coach Jones is battling prostate cancer, so this is an emotional time for the ODU family. Purdue is 23-9 this year, but lost two of its last three games; they score 38.3% of their points on the arc, with Cline making 41.8% of his 3’s. ODU’s opponents have made only 32.5% of their 3’s this year. Painter is 11-11 in NCAA tilts, but 8-3 in first round games.

Baylor lost its last four games, making 22-80 on arc in last three games; they’ll need to shoot ball better against Syracuse’s 2-3 zone here. Bears are experience team #255 whose subs play a lot (minutes #56). Drew is 10-7 in NCAA games, 4-3 in first round. Baylor’s senior G Mason was 9-19 on arc in his last three games, after a dismal 3-22 skid which also included two missed games with a foot injury. Syracuse is 4-7 in its last 11 games; their best player Battle didn’t play in their last game. Orange forces turnovers 23.2% of the time while playing pace #251. Boeheim won his last eight first round games; last loss was in ’06, after his team won Big East tourney.

Thursday’s other tournament games
Motivation is the main variable in these “other” tournaments; I’ll give you some stats and some knowledge, but these games are really tough to decipher from the outside.

Florida Atlantic lost four of its last five games, went 8-10 in C-USA; Owls are experience team #237- three of their last four losses were by 3 or fewer points. Charleston Southern lost by 3 at Middle Tennessee in its one C-USA game; Buccaneers won six of last eight games, are #309 experience team that is 2-7 outside Big South, with four other non-D-I wins.

St Francis NY hasn’t played in 15 days, since losing in OT in NEC tourney; Terriers lost four of last five games; their last three losses were all by 5 or fewer points- they’re experience team #147 that beat Presbyterian by 4, in their only Big South game. Hampton won five of last six games, went 9-7 in Big South; Pirates are experience team #9 that is 2-8 outside the Big South.

Bakersfield lost nine of its last ten games after starting season 15-6; they went 7-9 in WAC, are experience team #130 whose eFG% is #310. Roadrunners beat Cal Poly by 13 in its only Big West game. Fullerton went 12-5 in its last 17 games after starting season 2-12 vs D-I teams; Titans are experience team #41 with two senior guards who played in NCAA’s last year.

UL-Monroe won three of its last four games, went 9-9 in Sun Belt, winning four of last five home games. Warhawks are experience team #25 that shoots 39.6% on arc, #7 in country. Kent State is 3-4 in its last seven games; they’re experience team #30 that is 10-2 outside MAC this season. Flashes haven’t played in a week; they lost three of last four road games.

Thursday 3-21-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 3-21-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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