Friday 3-29-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence
Friday Hoops Steam
Atlanta: 10-3 $ off BB wins when facing the Trail Blazers ... Denver: 7-1 SU and 8-0 $ vs, Thunder ... Golden State: 17-4 SU away vs. Timberwolves ... Utah: 6-0 SUATS vs. Wizards ... Charlotte: 10-2-1 $ at Lakers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 7

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta


Claiming $4,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 5:30P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON $10,000 SINCE MARCH 28, 2018 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 13, 2019 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 28, 2019 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 28, 2019 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. WARRIOR QUALITY is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * WARRIOR QUALITY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
8
WARRIOR QUALITY
20/1

2/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
8
WARRIOR QUALITY
8

20/1
Alternator/Front-runner
83

75

74.4

70.6

64.6
9
HIGHLANDSERENADE
9

10/1
Stalker
70

51

36.0

51.4

35.4
5
MEUSER
5

3/1
Alternator/Stalker
71

69

25.4

61.8

52.8
4
TA BUENO
4

2/1
Trailer
85

71

20.6

63.6

55.6
2
NO RAIN NO RAINBOW
2

10/1
Trailer
77

66

1.4

54.6

42.1
7
HERE'S JOHNNY
7

10/1
Alternator/Trailer
92

77

37.5

55.3

48.3
6
EL COJO PAA
6

10/1
Alternator/Trailer
79

68

19.8

51.8

44.8
1
STATUTORIAL
1

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
80

66

35.0

52.8

45.8
10
IPHONE ADDICTION
10

5/1
Alternator/Non-contender
77

57

33.2

42.4

26.9
3
HOON (IRE)
3

20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

17.4

39.2

20.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National

Penn National - Race 8

W-P-S / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta


Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $11,800 • Post: 9:28P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE FEBRUARY 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE JANUARY 29 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Front-runner. GILGIMESH is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * VOW'S SON: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. GILGIMESH: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. MAJESTIC VOYAGE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. YOUSHOULDBEDANCING: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. P J'S BAD BOY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
4
VOW'S SON
10/1

6/1
2
GILGIMESH
3/1

7/1
3
MAJESTIC VOYAGE
5/2

7/1
1
YOUSHOULDBEDANCING
6/1

8/1
6
P J'S BAD BOY
7/2

8/1




P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
2
GILGIMESH
2

3/1
Front-runner
70

63

73.4

52.0

43.5
4
VOW'S SON
4

10/1
Alternator/Stalker
79

69

67.8

65.2

60.2
6
P J'S BAD BOY
6

7/2
Alternator/Stalker
78

65

57.0

59.0

51.0
3
MAJESTIC VOYAGE
3

5/2
Trailer
78

66

54.0

67.8

59.8
7
CHAMPAGNE EVENT
7

9/2
Trailer
73

70

43.6

56.2

45.2
1
YOUSHOULDBEDANCING
1

6/1
Trailer
78

68

25.2

63.0

56.0
8
CULLASAJA KING
8

50/1
Alternator/Non-contender
74

70

43.2

55.0

43.5
5
POWER GENERATION
5

12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0

0

31.6

54.6

43.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $23000 Class Rating: 57

FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 3 NICE N' BROAD 9/5

# 1 I B LIMMEY 3/1

# 6 OAKMONT MISS 7/2

NICE N' BROAD is tough to overlook as the bet in here. Could provide positive profits based on decent recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 55. Earned a respectable speed figure last time out. Has a strong shot for this event if you like back class. I B LIMMEY - Has been running well and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. Will most likely be one of the leaders of the pack going into the halfway point of the affair. OAKMONT MISS - This selection will feel the med change - with second time Lasix today. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Baird have shown strong results recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $12800 Class Rating: 75

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 9 JETTIN JESS 15/1

# 11 TRES SEIS STOLI 3/1

# 4 GRANDMA RUTH 20/1

JETTIN JESS looks quite good to best this group and is a formidable value bet given the line at 15/1. Ought to go to the front end and should never look back. She has put up respectable numbers under today's conditions and will probably fare well versus this group. TRES SEIS STOLI - With a strong 67 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. Could beat this field given the 69 speed rating put up in his last outing. GRANDMA RUTH - Going in a short race gives this filly a respectable shot. Put up a respectable speed fig last time out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Aqueduct - Race #5 - Post: 3:47pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $42,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 PARTY IN THE SAND (ML=7/2)
#2 FLOSS DANCER (ML=9/5)


PARTY IN THE SAND - Dropping in class rating points from her Feb 18th race at Aqueduct. Based on that key piece of info, I will give this horse the edge. FLOSS DANCER - I like this filly. Has the top earnings per start in this one.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 GENTLE ANNIE (ML=5/2), #3 AMANDA LANE (ML=5/1), #6 WHYISSHESOOLUCKY (ML=6/1),

GENTLE ANNIE - No good results for this pony in a short distance race over the last couple of months tells me that this filly is in a formidable situation AMANDA LANE - You always think this animal has a shot to be victorious, but she just misses often. When scrutinizing today's Equibase class figure, she will have to record a much better speed rating than last time out to vie in this dirt sprint. WHYISSHESOOLUCKY - This filly hasn't had any recent good results in short distance races. I find it hard to bet on her in this event.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #4 PARTY IN THE SAND on the win end if we get at least 3/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Stronach 5 - Race #5 - Post: 6:38pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#9 GENERAL JUNE (ML=9/2)
#8 ABJURE (ML=4/1)
#6 ROSA STAR (ML=7/2)
#3 GOLDEN TAP (ML=20/1)


GENERAL JUNE - This horse is for real on the turf. TrackMaster turf fig in last race at Gulfstream Park was tops in this field. Comparing how the horses in this field have fared under similar conditions, I see this one has the highest speed rating for the dist-surf. I am keen on that last effort on March 15th at Gulfstream Park where she ran third. Sano has a knack for getting horses to run well after a claim. Numbers are stellar first time off a claim, and this horse fits that category exactly. ABJURE - I like to bet on this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a strong contest within the last thirty days. ROSA STAR - Horses out of the barn of Delgado have been great on the grass. Should perform well. Ran a fast time for the last quarter on Mar 15th at Gulfstream Park. Anything close in this race should get the job done. This horse picks up a lot of dough per race around the track. I believe she will boost that total in this race. This filly is obviously on the improve with speed ratings of 51, 70, 77 last three out. GOLDEN TAP - This filly has 'tactical' speed, Reyes will use this advantage by laying in perfect position behind the early speed, and getting first run on the leaders. A thoroughbred coming back this quickly after a strong outing is a good sign. Just missed hitting the board on Mar 15th at Gulfstream Park. With decent morning odds in this race, she has my interest. Last time out, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. A good indication she can close well, and should be right there at the end this time. This one has increased her speed ratings from a fig of 64 to 67 to 73 in a row.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 PATCHWORK KITTEN (ML=5/1), #12 CHIQUI THE GRAY (ML=6/1), #4 HOW DID SHE DO IT (ML=6/1),

PATCHWORK KITTEN - If she goes off at the M/L odds of 5/1, I'll have to pass. HOW DID SHE DO IT - I'd like to see more preferred recent showings with oddsmaker's morning line of 6/1. Don't think this pony will make a winning move today. That last fig was pedestrian when compared with today's class figure.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #9 GENERAL JUNE to win. Have to have odds of at least 4/1 or better though

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Oaklawn Park

03/29/19, OP, Race 5, 3.19 CT
(race description missing)
Daily Double / Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta - 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / 50 Cent Pick 5 (Races 5-9)
Top Horse(100.0000) - Races 579, Win Percent 24.70, $1 ROI 0.83, For Race Category Non-Maiden Dirt
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse with stats MUST be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are exclusive to OP.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags Profit ROI WPC W# Occ
100.0000 1 Belle Meade Dancer 4-1 Loveberry J Robertson McLean SEWL 23.80 1.22 31.48 17 54
098.8864 7 Place the Blame 5/2 Cohen D McKnight Norman TF 44.80 1.16 35.00 49 140
097.5751 8 Well Maid 6-1 Bridgmohan J V Mason Ingrid 25.00 1.10 24.81 32 129
097.3904 3 Crimson Creed 6-1 Vazquez R A Villafranco Federico J 39.80 1.27 30.14 22 73
094.4132 9 Miss Ellie's Girl 6-1 Morales E Anderson Doug L.
093.7385 5 Molly's Game 8-1 Thompson T J Barkley Jason C 25.00 1.10 24.81 32 129
093.0735 2 Her Kitty 8-1 Borel C H Thomas Gary A.
091.2069 10 She's a Queen 20-1 Padron-Barcenas J Milligan Allen 25.00 1.10 24.81 32 129
090.2836 4 Kinley Cash 20-1 Harr K Cline Robert N. 23.80 1.22 31.48 17 54
090.1039 6 Kikitoz 20-1 Quinonez L S Cline Robert N. 23.80 1.22 31.48 17 54
P# 1 Last Race Same Purse As Today
P# 7 Horse Best Finish
P# 8 Last Race Not 3rd Race After 45 Days Off
P# 3 Last Race Claimed
P# 5 Last Race Not 3rd Race After 45 Days Off
P# 10 Last Race Not 3rd Race After 45 Days Off
P# 4 Last Race Same Purse As Today
P# 6 Last Race Same Purse As Today

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs

03/29/19, TAM, Race 8, 4.27 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $13,200.
Claiming Price $16,000 (Registered Florida Breds Preferred). FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) - Super High 5
Top Horse(100.0000) - Races 361, Win Percent 30.47, $1 ROI 0.78, For Race Category MSW_MCLM Dirt
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse with stats MUST be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are exclusive to TAM.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags Profit ROI WPC W# Occ
100.0000 6 Wild Drive 5-1 Marin A A Lerman Roy S. W
099.8602 8 Poitier(b+) 12-1 Cotto. Jr. P L Delgado Jose H. T 11.40 1.06 36.56 34 93
099.8386 7 Returnthestar 3-1 Santos A Passley Mark SFEC 5.00 1.07 42.86 15 35
099.6174 5 No Choice 7/2 Gallardo A A O'Connell Kathleen JL 22.60 1.16 39.44 28 71
097.3093 9 Sand Bay Breeze 20-1 Cannon D Fennessy Michael
096.7284 10 Calogero 9/2 Garcia J A Miller Rory C.
096.2399 3 Diamond Road 10-1 Cardoso M Drake Robert
095.6414 2 Drill Down 12-1 Alencar W Kielty Joyce
095.2975 12 Mister Mikey(b+) 15-1 Wales G Dini Michael 22.60 1.16 39.44 28 71
092.9437 11 Golden Charlie 30-1 Feliciano R Williams Edward L. 22.60 1.16 39.44 28 71
090.3937 4 Smarty J and B 30-1 Martinez O Escobar Alison 22.60 1.16 39.44 28 71
090.2589 1 Mahket Basket 30-1 Rodriguez J C Reardon M. C. 4.20 1.30 42.86 3 7
P# 8 Last Race Weight Less Than Today
P# 7 Last Race 3rd Race After 45 Days Off
P# 5 Last Race Distance Equal To Today
P# 12 Last Race Distance Equal To Today
P# 11 Last Race Distance Equal To Today
P# 4 Last Race Distance Equal To Today
P# 1 Horse Carries Apprentice Weight

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bruno Bragoli

NBA PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS ‑3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R and R Totals

MLB COLORADO ROCKIES/MIAMI MARLINS ‑120 u7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Consultants

NHL COLORADO AVALANCHE ‑150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Smart

mlb comp

Detroit vs. Toronto, 03/29/2019 19:07 EDT

Total: +101/+8½ Under

Sportsbook:
PinnacleSports

LH Matthew Boyd (2018: 9-13, 4.39 ERA) vs. Blue Jays RH Matt Shoemaker (2018: 2-2, 4.94)

The Motown Tigers took a 2-0 win yesterday against the Jays in both teams opener, and Im betting on a score that does not eclipse the total here today. This Fridays pitching matchup features Blue Jay and todays starter for Detroit Matt Boyd, who was just 9-13 last season, and struggled a bit in preseason play this year. Despite of a rocky exhibition run he is still a quality hurler, and was still hard to hit against in 2018 as is evident from a 1.16 WHIP to 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings ratio. Meanwhile, injuries have limited Shoemaker his pitching opponent from the Jays, to 21 starts in the majors over the last two seasons. However, you would never know it by his performances in spring training as he allowed just 12 hits while striking out 20 in 18 innings of top tier work. In his career Shoemaker has loved pitching against this Detroit Franchise posting a 0.83 ERA in five career starts against the Tigers, allowing just 21 hits and no HRs - in 32 2/3 innings of sparking work.

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Toronto.Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.Under is 4-1 in Boyds last 5 starts vs. Blue Jays.

Under is 13-6 in Tigers last 19 vs. American League East.Under is 15-7-2 in Tigers last 24 Friday games.Under is 4-0 in Boyds last 4 starts on astroturfUnder is 4-1 in Boyds last 5 starts vs. American League East.

Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 6-0 in Blue Jays last 6 home games.Under is 4-1-1 in Blue Jays last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Over is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 Friday games.Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 games following a loss.Under is 4-1-2 in Blue Jays last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 13-4-2 in Blue Jays last 19 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 6-2-1 in Blue Jays last 9 overall.Under is 6-2-1 in Blue Jays last 9 on astroturf.

Play on UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jesse Schule

The Iceman's Free Pick

Auburn vs. North Carolina, 03/29/2019 19:29 EDT

Total: -115/+165 Under

Sportsbook:
Bodog

This is a Free NCAAB play on AUB@UNC to go Under the total.

The bookmakers opened with a sky high total for this Sweet-16 matchup between Auburn and North Carolina, and the public is still betting it up even higher. As of Tuesday the number is up from 161 at opening to 165. So do I expect a low scoring game? Not at all, but this line has become so inflated I have no choice but to roll the dice and hope they come up short. As much as these teams are capable of scoring, it's not like they can't play defense. North Carolina hasn't allowed an opponent to score 80 points in seven straight games, while Auburn has held six straight opponents under 80 points. The Tar Heels have failed to reach the total in each of their last five NCAA Tournament games, while the Tigers have failed to reach the total in five straight versus teams from the ACC.

Take Under.

GL,

Jesse Schule