Thursday 4-4-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, April 4

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WASHINGTON (2 - 3) at NY METS (5 - 1) - 1:10 PM
STEPHEN STRASBURG (R) vs. NOAH SYNDERGAARD (R)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 84-83 (-27.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 60-63 (-29.8 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 41-43 (-20.6 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
STRASBURG is 20-5 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NY METS are 37-44 (-15.6 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 379-394 (-119.9 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.
NY METS are 19-30 (-17.2 Units) against the money line in home games in day games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY METS is 2-1 (+1.2 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

STEPHEN STRASBURG vs. NY METS since 1997
STRASBURG is 8-5 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.090.
His team's record is 12-6 (+4.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 11-6. (+5.2 units)

NOAH SYNDERGAARD vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
SYNDERGAARD is 3-5 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.65 and a WHIP of 1.188.
His team's record is 5-8 (-4.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 8-4. (+3.7 units)

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CINCINNATI (1 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (1 - 3) - 7:05 PM
TYLER MAHLE (R) vs. JORDAN LYLES (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 17-35 (-16.9 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 7-23 (-14.8 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 27-54 (-21.9 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 44-36 (+12.3 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 664-589 (+66.3 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-1 (+0.3 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

TYLER MAHLE vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
MAHLE is 0-3 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 5.90 and a WHIP of 1.593.
His team's record is 0-4 (-4.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-1. (+1.7 units)

JORDAN LYLES vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
LYLES is 4-1 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 5.01 and a WHIP of 1.258.
His team's record is 5-2 (+3.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-2. (+2.8 units)

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CHICAGO CUBS (1 - 4) at ATLANTA (2 - 3) - 7:20 PM
YU DARVISH (R) vs. MAX FRIED (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1791-1835 (-270.9 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 870-800 (-155.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.
ATLANTA is 93-77 (+17.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 71-49 (+24.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 16-3 (+11.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

YU DARVISH vs. ATLANTA since 1997
DARVISH is 0-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 5.19 and a WHIP of 2.076.
His team's record is 1-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

MAX FRIED vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
FRIED is 1-0 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 1.400.
His team's record is 1-0 (+2.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

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KANSAS CITY (2 - 3) at DETROIT (4 - 3) - 1:10 PM
JAKE JUNIS (R) vs. SPENCER TURNBULL (R)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 14-37 (-22.5 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 17-57 (-23.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 390-377 (-73.2 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.
DETROIT is 47-83 (-33.7 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 415-367 (-75.4 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

JAKE JUNIS vs. DETROIT since 1997
JUNIS is 5-1 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.38 and a WHIP of 1.042.
His team's record is 5-2 (+3.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.2 units)

SPENCER TURNBULL vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
No recent starts.

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NY YANKEES (2 - 4) at BALTIMORE (4 - 2) - 3:05 PM
JAMES PAXTON (L) vs. ALEX COBB (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 51-117 (-46.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 34-82 (-33.8 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 23-42 (-19.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-1 (+4.5 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.9 Units)

JAMES PAXTON vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
PAXTON is 2-1 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 3.18 and a WHIP of 1.323.
His team's record is 3-1 (-0.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.3 units)

ALEX COBB vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
COBB is 7-4 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 2.90 and a WHIP of 1.007.
His team's record is 8-9 (+0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-8. (+0.9 units)

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BOSTON (2 - 5) at OAKLAND (5 - 4) - 3:37 PM
EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ (L) vs. BRETT ANDERSON (L)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 102-70 (+36.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 36-19 (+17.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 55-33 (+20.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 39-22 (+17.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 43-25 (+24.1 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 56-19 (+32.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 121-62 (+36.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 81-38 (+27.5 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 51-33 (+18.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
RODRIGUEZ is 20-5 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-1 (+1.8 Units) against BOSTON this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ vs. OAKLAND since 1997
RODRIGUEZ is 2-1 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 2.33 and a WHIP of 0.778.
His team's record is 2-2 (-1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.1 units)

BRETT ANDERSON vs. BOSTON since 1997
ANDERSON is 6-4 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 3.48 and a WHIP of 1.268.
His team's record is 7-4 (+5.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-4. (+2.8 units)

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TORONTO (3 - 4) at CLEVELAND (2 - 3) - 6:10 PM
AARON SANCHEZ (R) vs. TREVOR BAUER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 62-89 (-31.0 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons.
SANCHEZ is 18-5 (+12.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)
CLEVELAND is 93-77 (-29.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 125-123 (-36.8 Units) against the money line in home games in April games since 1997.
CLEVELAND is 55-48 (-23.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 71-54 (-18.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

AARON SANCHEZ vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
SANCHEZ is 2-0 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 4.02 and a WHIP of 1.213.
His team's record is 3-0 (+3.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

TREVOR BAUER vs. TORONTO since 1997
BAUER is 1-2 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 7.11 and a WHIP of 1.777.
His team's record is 4-2 (+2.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.5 units)

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TEXAS (4 - 2) at LA ANGELS (1 - 5) - 10:07 PM
EDINSON VOLQUEZ (R) vs. MATT HARVEY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA ANGELS are 35-46 (-16.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 26-54 (-24.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HARVEY is 25-39 (-23.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

EDINSON VOLQUEZ vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
VOLQUEZ is 1-3 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 2.111.
His team's record is 1-3 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+2.1 units)

MATT HARVEY vs. TEXAS since 1997
No recent starts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Thursday, April 4

National League
Nationals (2-3) @ Mets (5-1)
Strasburg allowed four runs in six IP against the Mets Saturday; he is 8-5, 3.00 in 18 starts against New York. Team in his starts: 0-1
5-inning record: 0-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-1 Over/under: 1-0

Syndergaard allowed four runs in six IP vs Washington Saturday; he is 3-5, 3.65 in 13 starts vs the Nationals. Team in his starts: 1-0
5-inning record: 1-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-1 Over/under: 1-0

Nationals lost three of their first five games; their last four games went over. Over/under 1st 5 innings: 3-2

Mets won their last three games, scoring 17 runs; their last five games went over. Over/under 1st 5 innings: 3-2-1

Reds (1-4) @ Pirates (1-3)
Mahle was 7-9, 4.98 in 23 starts LY; he is 0-3, 5.91 in four starts vs Pittsburgh. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0

Lyles was 3-4, 4.11 in 35 games (8 starts) LY; he is 4-1, 4.53 in 14 games (7 starts) vs Cincinnati. Lyles has started 115 MLB games. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0

Reds lost their last four games, scoring seven runs (under 5-0). Over/under 1st 5 innings: 1-4

Pittsburgh lost three of its first four games (under 2-2). Over/under 1st 5 innings: 0-4

Cubs (1-4) @ Braves (2-3)
Darvish allowed three runs in 2.2 IP (75 PT) in his first ’19 start; he is 0-1, 5.19 in two starts vs Atlanta. Team in his starts: 0-1
5-inning record: 1-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-1 Over/under: 1-0

Fried was 1-4, 2.94 in 14 games (5 starts) LY; he allowed one run in five IP in his only start against the Cubs. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0

Cubs lost four of their first five games (over 4-1). Over/under 1st 5 innings:4-1

Atlanta lost three of its first five games (over 3-2). Over/under 1st 5 innings: 2-3

American League
Royals (2-3) @ Tigers (4-3)
Junis allowed three runs in 5.2 IP in his first ’19 start; he is 6-1, 3.12 in 8 games (7 starts) vs Detroit. Team in his starts: 1-0
5-inning record: 1-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-1 Over/under: 1-0

Turnbull allowed three runs in five IP in his first ’19 start; he hasn’t pitched against the Royals. Team in his starts: 0-1
5-inning record: 0-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-1 Over/under: 0-1

Royals lost their last three games, allowing 18 runs (under 4-1). Over/under 1st 5 innings: 2-3

Detroit won three of its last four games, allowing 8 runs (under 7-0). Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 7-0

New York (2-4) @ Orioles (4-2)
Paxton allowed two runs in 5.2 IP in his first ’19 start; he is 2-1, 3.18 in four starts vs Baltimore. Team in his starts: 0-1
5-inning record: 1-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-1 Over/under: 0-1

Cobb was 5-15, 4.90 in 28 starts LY; he is 7-4, 2.90 in 17 games (16 starts) vs NY. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0

New York lost four of its last five games (under 4-1-1). Over/under 1st 5 innings: 2-4

Orioles won four of their last five games (under 3-2-1). Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 3-3

Red Sox (2-5) @ A’s (5-4)
Rodriguez allowed six runs in 4.1 IP in his first ’19 start; he is Team in his starts: 0-1
5-inning record: 0-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-1 Over/under: 1-0

Anderson blanked the Angels for six innings in his first ’19 start. Team in his starts: 1-0
5-inning record: 1-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-1 Over/under: 0-1

Red Sox lost five of their first seven games (over 5-2). Over/under 1st 5 innings: 4-3

Oakland won five of its last seven games (under 6-3). Over/under 1st 5 innings: last eight under

Blue Jays (3-4) @ Indians (2-3)
Sanchez blanked Detroit for five innings in his first ’19 start. Team in his starts: 1-0
5-inning record: 1-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-1 Over/under: 0-1

Bauer allowed one run in seven IP in his first ’19 start. Team in his starts: 1-0
5-inning record: 0-0-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-1 Over/under: 0-1

Blue Jays lost three of their last four games (under 6-1). Over/under 1st 5 innings: 1-6

Cleveland lost three of its first five games (over 3-2). Over/under 1st 5 innings: 2-2-1

Rangers (4-2) @ Angels (1-5)
Volquez allowed four runs in four IP in his first ’19 start; he is 1-4, 10.71 in six games (4 starts) against the Angels. Team in his starts: 0-1
5-inning record: 0-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-1 Over/under: 0-1

Harvey allowed two runs in six IP in his first ’19 start; he has never pitched against Texas. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0

Rangers won four of their last five games (over 4-2). Over/under 1st 5 innings: 4-2

Angels lost their last four games, scoring seven runs (under 5-1). Over/under 1st 5 innings: 1-5

______________________________

%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total)
Team (road-home-total)- thru 4/3
Ariz 2-7……0-0………2-7
Atl 1-3……1-2………2-5
Cubs 0-0……1-5………1-5
Reds 0-0……0-5……..0-5
Colo 0-7……0-0……..0-7
LA 0-0……4-7……..4-7
Mia 0-0……2-7……..2-7
Milw 1-3…….2-4……..3-7
Mets 3-6……0-0……..3-6
Philly 1-2…….1-3……..2-5
Pitt 1-2…….1-2……..2-4
StL 1-6…….0-0……..1-6
SD 0-0…….1-7……..1-7
SF 0-7…….0-0…….1-7
Wash 0-0…….2-5……..2-5

Orioles 2-6…….0-0……..2-6
Boston 1-7…….0-0……..1-7
W Sox 1-5…….0-0………1-5
Clev 0-3…….1-2………1-5
Det 0-7…….0-0……..0-7
Astros 3-7…….0-0……..3-7
KC 0-0…….2-5……..2-5
Angels 0-6……0-0……..0-6
Twins 0-2……0-3………0-5
NYY 0-0……1-6……….1-6
A’s 1-2…….1-7……….2-9
Sea 0-2…….3-6……..3-8
TB 0-0…….3-7………3-7
Texas 0-0…….1-6………1-6
Toronto 0-0…….1-7………1-7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB's Top Money Teams (based on $100 wager per game):

1. Mariners (7-1) $795
2. Orioles (4-2) $714
3. Brewers (6-1) $507
4. Rangers (4-2) $462
5. Mets (5-1) $421
6. Phillies (4-1) $335
7. Tigers (4-3) $328


MLB's Worst Money Teams (based on $100 wager per game):

30. Yankees (2-4) $-866
29. Red Sox (4-2) $-597
28. Astros (2-5) $-593
27. Angels (1-5) $-407
26. Cubs (1-4) $-394
25. Reds (1-4) $-346

[Can'tPickAWinner]

By: Andrew Caley



STREAKING AND SLUMPING STARTERS

STREAKING

Brett Anderson, Oakland Athletics: (1-0, 0.00 ERA, $100): The veteran southpaw still loves pitching in the massive dimensions of the Oakland Coliseum. Anderson is coming off pitching six shutout innings of three-hit ball in his first start of the season there. He now owns a 1.67 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP in his last seven starts there.

The competition gets a little tougher today against the Red Sox. The A’s are currently slight -105 home favorites with a total sitting at 8.

SLUMPING

Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs (0-0, 10.12 ERA, $-160): Darvish’s homecoming slash return to the mound certainly did not go as expected. The Japanese right-hander lasted just 2.2 innings in his first start since May 20th of last season, surrendering three runs on two hits and a jaw dropping seven walks.

Darvish will attempt to bounce back when he returns to the mound when the Cubs visit the Braves tonight. The Cubs are currently +100 underdogs with a total of 8.5 for this one.

PITCHER’S DUEL REMATCH

We get treated to a fantastic pitcher’s duel to kick off the day as Stephen Strasburg squares off against Noah Syndergaard when the Mets host the Nationals for their home opener. This is a rematch from just five days ago in which both starters got roughed up and will want to bounce back in a big way. What’s even crazier is the numbers for both starters. Both Strasburg and Syndergaard allowed four runs on seven hits in six innings pitched, in an eventual 11-8 Mets victory. New York is currently a -130 favorite this time around in a matchup oddsmakers expect the starters to return to form, setting the total at 6.5.

RAIN, RAIN, GO AWAY

Two of today’s scheduled games have already been postponed due to rain. The White Sox have rescheduled their home opener against the Mariners to Friday, which was a scheduled off day for both teams.

The Cardinals also had to postpone their home opener against the Padres and the game will also be made up on Friday. Make sure to check out our MLB Weather page for the latest forecasts at the ball parks all across the country.

KEEPING A LOW PROFILE

The Tigers are quietly having a nice little start to the season at 4-3, but what we really want to take note of is the team they are shaping up to be. And that is a wonderful Under bet. The Under has cashed in all seven of their games to start the season thanks to a great combination of poor hitting and good pitching. The Tigers rank last in runs per game, 29th in average and 28th in OPS, while ranking third in ERA and WHIP. Detroit plays its home opener today against the Royals with a total of 8.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NIT Championship Betting Preview

Lipscomb vs. Texas (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)

Two programs who found themselves on the wrong end of the NCAA Tournament bubble have managed to put that disappointment aside to reach the title game of the NIT Tournament on Thursday night and it should be an intriguing matchup.

Lipscomb was probably never going to get an at-large bid coming out of the Atlantic Sun after losing that tournament's title game to Liberty. However, if you were to ask the guys on Lipscomb now would they prefer a chance at some NIT hardware over what would have likely been a one or two-game run in the NCAA Tournament, a few of them would be hard-pressed not to take the opportunity they've got in front of them on Thursday night.

Texas stumbled in the latter half of their Big 12 slate to essentially play themselves out of NCAA Tournament consideration, but getting someone like Kerwin Roach reinstated for post-season basketball has helped this team forget about that rough stretch. The Longhorns were able to knock off hated rival TCU for the first time in three tries to get to this NIT championship, and they come into this meeting with mid-major Lipscomb as a slight favorite.

With the sights, sounds, and nerves of playing at MSG gone out the window for both teams after their semi-final wins, which program gets to add some hardware to their trophy case on campus this year?

Odds: Texas (-1.5); Total set at 143

Right off the bat, bettors following the market will see that the 'under' in this game got hit pretty hard upon opening in the high 140's here at BetOnline.ag, but it's settled around in at 143 since then. Title games in any sport tend to get 'under' love regardless, so I wouldn't put a whole lot of stock in such a significant move, but it's one to make note of for sure if you are considering a play on either side of this total. That's not something I'm interested in here though, as it's the side (and outright winner) I'm looking to back.

Texas is going to get some love here given they are the more known program in this spot and have dealt with better competition all year long, but I don't believe they should be the ones laying points here. Yes, it's been on the strength of the Longhorns defensive play that has gotten them here – holding Colorado to 55 points and TCU to 44 points the last two rounds was impressive – but for as solid as those results were, the Buffaloes and Horned Frogs were 124th and 128th in the country in offensive efficiency.

Enter Lipscomb, who ranks 32nd in the nation in that regard, scoring 83.6 points per game on the year, and have reached this point having played all of their NIT games either on the road or at a neutral site. And even still, Lipscomb has averaged 14.25 points more per game in the NIT than Texas has (85 vs 70.75) and the Longhorns have actually played a full five more minutes as well. Sometimes it's as simple as you need more points than the other team to win games, and in that respect, it's hard not to like Lipscomb's chances here.

Half of the Longhorns losses this year (8 of 16) have come when they closed as a favorite of any number this year, and there are some contests with them laying significant chalk as well. A 2-5 ATS run coming into this game isn't confidence building either, and with the overall youth this Longhorns team has in general, a championship game of any kind may still be too big of a moment for these guys.

Lipscomb has made a point during this NIT run that the level of play in these smaller mid-major conferences is improving every year, and having already taken out on Power 5 conference bubble team in NC State on this NIT run, the Bison get their first Division I basketball championship in school history on Thursday night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Thursday, April 4


Green Bay @ Marshall

Game 733-734
April 4, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
53.099
Marshall
61.256
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Marshall
by 8
175
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Marshall
by 5 1/2
167
Dunkel Pick:
Marshall
(-5 1/2); Over

Lipscomb @ Texas

Game 727-728
April 4, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Lipscomb
67.988
Texas
66.532
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Lipscomb
by 1 1/2
147
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas
by 1
143
Dunkel Pick:
Lipscomb
(+1); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

727Lipscomb -728 Texas
LIPSCOMB is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=18 free throws/game in the current season.

727Lipscomb -728 Texas
TEXAS are 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after playing 3 consecutive games as favorite in the current season.

727Lipscomb -728 Texas
LIPSCOMB is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins in the current season.

733Wi Green Bay -734 Marshall
MARSHALL is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Thursday, April 4

Green Bay scored 91.8 ppg in winning first four games in this event; Phoenix is experience team #105 that plays tempo #12- they’re 8-7 outside Horizon (NC sked #10). Green Bay lost three of its last four road games. Green Bay won in OT Tuesday; they used three starters 31:00+ that game, with Cohen playing 43:00. Phoenix starts three juniors and a senior. Marshall won nine of its last ten games, winning last six home games; Thundering Herd is 10-6 outside C-USA; they play 5th-fastest tempo in country, are experience team #143 (#26 in MC). Marshall outscored Hampton 11-6 over last 4:25 to edge Pirates 80-78 Tuesday; only two guys played more than 28:00.

NIT, New York City
Lipscomb is #48 experience team whose eFG% is #48 in country; they start three seniors, two juniors. Bisons won at TCU this year, lost by 4 at Louisville; they beat NC State 94-93 in Raleigh LW, beat Wichita here Tuesday, so they won’t be awed- this is probably the biggest game in school history. Texas is experience team #280 that plays tempo #322; Longhorns allowed 55-44 points in winning their last two games. Texas starts a freshman and three sophs; they don’t defend the arc that well (35.5%, #244). Lipscomb shoots 37.7% on arc (#36).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Thursday, April 4

Trend Report

Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix
Wisconsin-Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Wisconsin-Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wisconsin-Green Bay's last 5 games
Wisconsin-Green Bay is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Wisconsin-Green Bay is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wisconsin-Green Bay's last 6 games on the road
Marshall Thundering Herd
Marshall is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Marshall is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games
Marshall is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Marshall's last 7 games

Texas Longhorns
Texas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Texas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas's last 7 games

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Inside the Paint - Thursday
Chris David

The NBA slows down the pace on Thursday with just three games and the grind of the regular season has turned anticipated matchups into afterthoughts due to injuries and rest.

Let’s break down the card!

Milwaukee (58-20 SU, 46-29-3 ATS) at Philadelphia (49-30 SU, 36-42 ATS)

Unfortunately for fans and bettors, this possible playoff preview will be lacking plenty of luster on Thursday as the game will be filled with a lot of backup players. The injury report for the Bucks has seven players listed as ‘out’ or ‘questionable’ while the 76ers will likely be without Joel Embiid and possibly Jimmy Butler as well.

Follow our Injuries or for faster updates, check out our Lineups feature within our Live Odds.

These teams just played to a classic battle in Milwaukee on Mar. 17 and the 76ers captured a 130-125 win over the Bucks as 5 ½-point road underdogs. Embiid scored 40 points for Philadelphia while Butler added 27 points. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 52 points and posted 16 rebounds in a losing effort for the Bucks, but the team just couldn’t connect from 3-point land (16-of-50) in the loss.

Milwaukee is ranked second in attempted 3-pointers per game with 38.2 and that ‘make-or-miss’ approach from distance has made the Bucks the top scoring team in the league at 117.9 points per game. Philadelphia isn’t far behind (115.2 PPG) them but the difference for the Bucks is their defense (108.6 PPG) and that production has led to the best point differential (9.3) in the NBA. To put things in perspective, Milwaukee has won 45 of its 58 games this season by 10 points or more.

Thursday’s encounter will be the third and final meeting of the regular season between the pair. The first meeting took place in late October and Milwaukee defeated Philadelphia 123-108 as a five-point home favorite. The Bucks have lost their last two trips to Philadelphia, which both occurred last season, and both decisions were by double digits as they were held to 94 and 95 points.

The 76ers will be playing on no rest after losing at Atlanta 130-122 on Tuesday as 4 ½-point road favorites. Including that setback, Philadelphia has dropped two straight games and four of its last six but the team hasn’t pushed out a full-strength roster in weeks since it’s all but locked into the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference. When facing back-to-back spots this season, Philadelphia has gone 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS while the ‘over’ has gone 8-3.

While Philadelphia has been on cruise control lately, the Bucks continue to rack up wins despite shuffling players in and out of the roster. Antetokounmpo played for Milwaukee on Monday as the team diced up Brooklyn 131-121 as one-point road underdogs and most reports have him expected to play in this game.

Since the loss to Philadelphia in mid-March, the Bucks have gone 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS. The two losses came on the road and to a pair of losing clubs (Hawks, Cavaliers) but despite those setbacks, Milwaukee owns the best road mark (26-14 SU, 23-15-2 ATS) in the league. This will be their final road game of the regular season.

TNT will provide national coverage of this game at 8:05 p.m. ET.

Cleveland (19-59 SU, 37-40-1 ATS) at Sacramento (38-40 SU, 44-32-2 ATS)

The Kings opened as 10-point home favorites over the Cavaliers and the number was pushed down to 9 ½ as of Thursday morning. I don’t expect Sacramento to lose this game but we did see Chicago (+9 ½) surprise Washington last night as a heavy road underdog in a meaningless game. While that outcome was an upset, three other heavy double-digit favorites on Wednesday went 3-0 both SU and ATS for ‘chalk’ bettors.

Sacramento blasted Cleveland 129-110 on Dec. 7 as a three-point road favorite and that was the fourth straight cover for the Kings in this series. The Cavaliers own the worst road record (6-33 SU, 18-20-1 ATS) in the league and they’ve gone 1-9 (5-5 ATS) since the All-Star break as visitors and the defense has allowed 120.1 PPG during this span, which has led to a 7-3 ‘over’ mark.

The high side (228 ½) could be the lean in this spot or a better look could be the Sacramento Team Total ‘over’ (119). Sacramento has gone 4-5 at home in the second-half of the season but all five losses came against teams with winning records while the victories were against clubs below .500. In those wins, the Kings averaged 118 PPG while winning by an average of 13.5 PPG.

Golden State (53-24 SU, 33-43-1 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (35-43 SU, 31-45-2 ATS)

The second-half of Thursday’s TNT (10:35 p.m. ET) double-header takes place at the Staples Center when the Warriors (-13) face the Lakers as heavy road favorites. After losing to Los Angeles 127-101 on Christmas Day as nine-point home favorites, the Warriors have avenged that setback with two straight wins (1-1 ATS) against the Lakers and both results came by double digits.

The holiday upset of Golden State happened to be the turning point of the season for Los Angeles, who lost LeBron James to a groin injury in that win. The club was 20-14 at the time and expected to be a playoff team, possibly a contender. His absence, other key injuries, trade rumors and off-the-court drama watched the team go 15-29 since the X-Mas day win. The Lakers recently shut James down for the season and practically every other viable offensive weapon as well.

The lack of firepower was evident on Tuesday as Los Angeles was blasted 119-103 at Oklahoma City as a 12 ½-point road underdog. Prior to that loss, the Lakers had gone 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their previous five games. They have won three straight games at home entering this matchup but it would be shocking to see that streak extended tonight.

Golden State’s magic number to earn the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference is “3” and it will likely drop to “2” after beating Los Angeles this evening. Golden State has won four of its last five games and has managed to go 3-2 ATS for bettors despite laying some healthy numbers. The Warriors are no strangers to laying big prices, even on the road.

Last Friday, the club dropped a 131-130 overtime decision at Minnesota as a 10-point road favorite and that was the first time this season that Golden State lost as a double-digit road favorite. Prior to that decision, the Warriors were 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS when laying 10-plus points away from the Bay Area. The ‘over’ has gone 7-1 in these situations and tonight’s total is listed at 227.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, April 4


Milwaukee @ Philadelphia

Game 525-526
April 4, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
126.837
Philadelphia
117.341
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 9 1/2
237
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 2 1/2
230 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(-2 1/2); Over

Cleveland @ Sacramento

Game 527-528
April 4, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
106.042
Sacramento
120.031
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Sacramento
by 14
219
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Sacramento
by 9 1/2
228
Dunkel Pick:
Sacramento
(-9 1/2); Under

Golden State @ LA Lakers

Game 529-530
April 4, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
123.390
LA Lakers
117.361
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 6
236
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 13
227
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(+13); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, April 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MILWAUKEE (58 - 20) at PHILADELPHIA (49 - 29) - 4/4/2019, 8:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 5-5 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 5-5 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (19 - 59) at SACRAMENTO (38 - 40) - 4/4/2019, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 77-101 ATS (-34.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 21-37 ATS (-19.7 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 21-38 ATS (-20.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 46-66 ATS (-26.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 42-60 ATS (-24.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 26-35 ATS (-12.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
SACRAMENTO is 44-33 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
SACRAMENTO is 41-30 ATS (+8.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
SACRAMENTO is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
SACRAMENTO is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games this season.
SACRAMENTO is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
SACRAMENTO is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in non-conference games this season.
SACRAMENTO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
SACRAMENTO is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
SACRAMENTO is 35-25 ATS (+7.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 4-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
SACRAMENTO is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GOLDEN STATE (53 - 24) at LA LAKERS (35 - 43) - 4/4/2019, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 33-43 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 29-40 ATS (-15.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 25-38 ATS (-16.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 134-97 ATS (+27.3 Units) in April games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 84-57 ATS (+21.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 31-45 ATS (-18.5 Units) in all games this season.
LA LAKERS are 27-39 ATS (-15.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
LA LAKERS are 187-230 ATS (-66.0 Units) in home games in the second half of the season since 1996.
LA LAKERS are 27-36 ATS (-12.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
LA LAKERS are 26-35 ATS (-12.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 6-5 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 9-2 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

525Milwaukee -526 Philadelphia
PHILADELPHIA is 12-0 ATS (12 Units) in home games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread in the current season.

527Cleveland -528 Sacramento
SACRAMENTO is 11-3 ATS (7.7 Units) versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game in the current season.

529Golden State -530 La Lakers
LA LAKERS are 22-41 ATS (-23.1 Units) when playing 6 or more games in 10 days in the last 3 seasons.

529Golden State -530 La Lakers
Luke Walton is 22-41 ATS (-23.1 Units) when playing 6 or more games in 10 days (Coach of LA LAKERS)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Thursday, April 4

Milwaukee won five of its last six games; they’re 5-4 vs spread in last nine road games. Four of their last five games went over. Philly lost four of its last six games; they’re 3-1-2 vs spread in last six home games. Seven of their last ten games went over. Bucks/76ers split their last ten meetings; Milwaukee is 2-2 vs spread in its last four visits to Philly. Last four series games went over the total.

Cavaliers lost five of their last six games; they’re 6-4 vs spread in last 10 road games. Eight of their last nine games went over. Sacramento lost three of its last four games; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five games as a favorite. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games. Kings won three of last four games with Cleveland; five of last seven series games went over the total. Cavaliers are 2-2 vs spread in their last four visits to Sacramento.

Golden State won six of its last eight games; they’re 4-2 vs spread in last six road games. Under is 15-4 in their last 19 games. Lakers won four of their last six games; they covered their last three home games. Six of their last eight games stayed under. Warriors won nine of last ten games with the Lakers, but LA covered five of last seven; Warriors are 2-2 vs spread in last four series games played here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Dunkel

Thursday, April 4


Ottawa @ Buffalo

Game 3-4
April 4, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Ottawa
10.923
Buffalo
8.840
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ottawa
by 2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
-190
6
Dunkel Pick:
Ottawa
(+165); Over

Tampa Bay @ Toronto

Game 7-8
April 4, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
11.252
Toronto
9.641
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-115
7
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-115); Over

NY Islanders @ Florida

Game 9-10
April 4, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Islanders
10.113
Florida
13.123
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Florida
by 3
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Islanders
-115
7
Dunkel Pick:
NY Islanders
(-105); Over

Detroit @ Pittsburgh

Game 1-2
April 4, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
10.763
Pittsburgh
12.241
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
-305
6
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-305); Under

Montreal @ Washington

Game 5-6
April 4, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Montreal
13.442
Washington
12.101
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Montreal
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-150
6
Dunkel Pick:
Montreal
(+130); Under

New Jersey @ Carolina

Game 11-12
April 4, 2019 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Jersey
10.460
Carolina
12.038
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
-280
6
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-280); Under

Philadelphia @ St. Louis

Game 15-16
April 4, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
8.899
St. Louis
10.772
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
-210
6
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(-210); Over

Vancouver @ Nashville

Game 17-18
April 4, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Vancouver
12.021
Nashville
10.967
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Vancouver
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Nashville
-250
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Vancouver
(+210); Under

Boston @ Minnesota

Game 13-14
April 4, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Boston
10.755
Minnesota
12.820
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 2
4
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-115
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-105); Under

Winnipeg @ Colorado

Game 21-22
April 4, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
9.133
Colorado
11.528
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado
by 2 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado
-120
6
Dunkel Pick:
Colorado
(-120); Over

San Jose @ Edmonton

Game 19-20
April 4, 2019 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Jose
9.840
Edmonton
8.983
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Jose
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Jose
-145
6 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Jose
(-145); Over

Arizona @ Vegas

Game 23-24
April 4, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
11.403
Vegas
10.071
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1 1/2
3
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Vegas
-190
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+165); Under