Service Plays Tuesday 4/2/19

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-02-2019, 05:00 AM

Aj Hoffman

3* Lipscomb -1.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-02-2019, 06:07 AM

Dave Essler

3* Sacramento +5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-02-2019, 06:07 AM

Spartan

2* Rabid Dog Release

Kansas City +125

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-02-2019, 06:07 AM

Fezzik

3* GOW Minnesota -125

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-02-2019, 06:08 AM

Stephen Nover

3* GOM Golden State -8

2* Lipscomb +1

**dawggy** · 04-02-2019, 07:29 AM

FINN\'s NIT FINAL FOUR GAME #1
Game: (709) Wichita State at (710) Lipscomb
Date/Time: Apr 2 2019 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Wichita State 1.0 (-110)

View Analysis

FINN's NIT FINAL FOUR GAME #1
PLAY: Wichita State +1 point (good to -1)
4% game rating
(709) Wichita State at (710) Lipscomb

Game night analysis published shortly. Check back to WagerTalk or open your mail for a complete detailed write-up on this Tuesday night MSG event.

WICHITA STATE +1
FINN\'s NIT FINAL FOUR GAME #2
Game: (711) Texas at (712) TCU
Date/Time: Apr 2 2019 9:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 137.5 (-106)

View Analysis

FINN's NITE FINAL FOUR GAME #2
PLAY OVER the TOTAL of 137.5 (good to 140)
4% game rating
(711) Texas at (712) TCU

Game night analysis published shortly. Check back to WagerTalk or open your mail for a complete detailed writeup on this Tuesday night MSG event.

TOTAL OVER 137.5
FINN FINAL-4 VIRGINIA vs AUBURN
Game: (803) Auburn at (804) Virginia
Date/Time: Apr 6 2019 6:09 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Greek
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Virginia -5.5 (+102)

View Analysis

PLAY: Virginia -5.5 (good to -7)
4% game rating

Virginia
Offensive rank (BPI): 2nd
Defensive rank (BPI): 2nd

Auburn
Offensive rank (BPI): 8th
Defensive rank (BPI): 35th

Check back for complete detailed analysis of this Virgina vs Auburn Final Four matchup

VIRGINIA -5.5 points
FINN FINAL-4 MICH STATE vs TEXAS TECH
Game: (801) Texas Tech at (802) Michigan State
Date/Time: Apr 6 2019 8:49 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Under 133.0 (-108)

View Analysis

PLAY: Under the Total of 133 (good to 130)
5% game rating
(801) Texas Tech at (802) Michigan State

Michigan State
Offensive rank (BPI): 6th
Defensive rank (BPI): 8th

Texas Tech
Offensive rank (BPI): 33rd
Defensive rank (BPI): 1st

Full game night analysis published momentarily.. Check your email for a complete detailed analysis by Tuesday a.m.

UNDER the TOTAL of 133

BASEBALL PLAYS

FINN EARLY PITCH AL DOMINATOR (6-1)
Game: (963) Baltimore Orioles at (964) Toronto Blue Jays
Date/Time: Apr 2 2019 7:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Greek
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 9.0 (-122)

View Analysis

PLAY: Under the Total of 9 runs (good to 8.5)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Cashner and Stroman

(963) Baltimore Orioles at (964) Toronto Blue Jays

It is important to note that while the belief should be that the Jays starting rotation is what will carry them on most nights this summer they shouldn't be counted on to perform to the level they did in the season opening series this past weekend against the Detroit Tigers.

Jays' starting pitchers did not give up a run across four games. That ended on Monday when the Baltimore Orioles scored five runs on Toronto starter Sean Reid-Foley resulting in a 6-5 victory.

Toronto's first four starters combined to allow 11 hits over 24 scoreless innings in Detroit. And while the Orioles have proved to be more capable offensively this year than Detroit don't count on that being the case across 162 games.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles RH Andrew Cashner (0-1, 13.50 ERA) vs. Blue Jays RH Marcus Stroman (0-0, 0.00)

Cashner has lost six consecutive starts dating back to last season. The right-hander replaced expected Baltimore No.1 Alex Cobb for the Orioles Opening Day start. Cashner surrendered six runs on six hits and four walks over four innings at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium and against arguably the most formitable lineup in all of baseball.

And while Cashner failed to earn official wins in any of his four starts against the Blue Jays in 2018 (0-2) his underlying peripherals were in line with his 3.28 ERA.

Toronto right-hander Stroman took a no-hitter into the seventh inning in his first start, an Opening Day turn, against a less than average Detroit Tigers offense. Stroman allowed four walks and a pair of singles while striking out seven over as many innings. Stroman has always had injury issues in his career, albeit nothing ground-swelling and most of his starts have been skipped due to blisters. Last season Stroman experienced blisters right out of the box and a throwing shoulder ailment that resulted in the Jays' righty experiencing the worst statistical season in his career.

Stroman is as blue-collar with a chip on his shoulder pitcher in a day and age when starters more resemble Diva's with an attitude. The talented right-hander has over-the-top plus-stuff. His 2018 numbers, surface stats, can be shelfed... and ignored. Stroman recorded a 5.54 ERA in just over 100 innings of work last year. A campaign in which the young starter pitched through a right shoulder injury.

The Jays starter doesn't have the prettiest delivery. He doesn't miss an large number of bats that would enable him to have "Elite" status among starters. Stroman doesn't miss a high percentage of bats, owning a league average strike out rate (19%). However, the combination of opposing lineup and home plate umpire make is GB-to-FB ration extremely attractive... and backable. Stroman ground balls (60%) mitigate his hard contact ration and his batted ball luck, or lack thereof.

Stroman owned a no-hitter through six innings in his first start of the season -- and a healthy Stroman against a below average offensive lineup with an umpire that has a large strike zone is a recipe for Stro-Success.

Against playoff quality Baltimore lineups, batting orders much more skilled and power laden than the 2019 version of the O's, Stroman is 4-4 with a 3.55 ERA in 11 trips to the mound vs the O's.

Cashner allowed six runs on six hits along with four walks while striking out three in four innings of Opening Day work. However, Cashner was taking hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium mound in an attempt to contain the best offense, in the Yanks.

Cashner's underlying peripherals are much better than his surface stats (5.29 ERA over 153 innings a year ago). Cashner's adjusted ERA, his FIP, is nearly two runs lower than his ERA.

Drumroll please for the cream on the strudel. The scheduled home plate umpire, veteran Bill Miller, has the largest strikezone in major league baseball. He calls more strikes outside of the QuesTec computerized zone grading system for Major League Baseball umpires.

On average Miller has a strike out to walk ratio that is 20 percent higher than league norm. And there isn't an umpire in the game today that has a higher percentage of swings and misses when he is grading balls and strikes.

Under the Total of 9 runs
FINN LATE PITCH MLB PRIVATE PLAY 6-1
Game: (971) Los Angeles Angels at (972) Seattle Mariners
Date/Time: Apr 2 2019 10:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Seattle Mariners -106

View Analysis

PLAY: Seattle Mariners -106 (good to -140)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Cahill and Gonzales

The Seattle Mariners have the best record in baseball through the season opening first weekend. The M's are 6-1 heading into Tuesday night's contest against the 1-4 L.A. Angels.

I am currently outlining my first power rankings for the 2019 MLB season and for those of you interested, and visit the WagerTalk News, you will see that my comment for the Mariners will be "This Seattle team will be much better than most expected" I am not stepping out on a seven-game MLB limb and stating that the Mariners are playoff good. I am saying they are better than the team that most of the Vegas and Offshore sportsbooks projected to win in the neighborhood of 75 games.

The Seattle roster has a large number of newbies. And for most weekend warriors, casual baseball fans, that wager on their favorite team or the one they see on Wednesday's ESPN network, most can't name a current trio of players whom don a M's uni.

Seattle had 11 players listed on its Opening Day roster for the two-game series in Japan that weren’t with the club when the 2018 season ended. Only four of those players — Hernandez, Ichiro Suzuki, Edwin Encarnacion and Jay Bruce — have completed at least 10 years of major league service.

Gone is slugger Nelson Cruz elected free agency in October, along with seven others who logged time with the Mariners. Last Thanksgiving, November, saw the departure of longtime Mariners catcher Mike Zunino and outfielder Guillermo Heredia, who were traded to Tampa Bay. In addition shortly after the holiday weekend starter James Paxton packed his cleats and headed to the Bronx to be a part of the New York Yankees.

In December, second baseman Robinson Cano and closer Edwin Diaz traveled three time zones in a deal with the New York Mets. Jean Segura, righty Juan Nicasio and lefty James Pazos were swapped to the senior circuit and joined the upstart Philadelphia Phillies. And Seattle fan favorite Ben Gamel left for Milwaukee.

You don't have to include your toes but you do need both hands to count the number of 2018 Seattle Mariners personnel departed, across nine separate transactions, in preparation for this season, or better phrased the new look M's of 2019.

Seattle swept their season opening series against the A's in Japan. And followed that by winning three of four against the reigning World Series champion Boston Red Sox. The truth is, for those that are faithful followers of the game and the history of fast starts and slow finishes by MLB franchises, that the entire Red Sox-Mariners series more resembled bad college baseball.

The Mariners registered a sloppy 10-8 win Sunday to earn the third win in the four game series. Seattle scored 34 runs in four games as Red Sox starters posted a 13.20 ERA.

So the sportsbook MLB Prop after the first weekend of the 2019 campaign is; can Seattle compete with the Houston Astros in the AL West or is Boston not playing like the team that won a million and one games in 2018 and owned the Los Angeles Dodgers in last year's Fall Classic?

Yes - Seattle can win the AL West
No - Boston, their 1-3 mark, and their boxscores from the season opening weekend, is how the Red Sox will perform this season

To the game at hand. The Angels have two key injuries that make them the team that is most likely to perform to their 2018 mark than either the Mariners or the Red Sox. Seattle will finish second in the junior circuit west division and Boston will begin to pitch and defend than they did in this past weekend's series loss to Seattle.

Seattle's Kyle Seager is on the 60-day absentee list for the Mariners. He is the team's only injury that messes with one attempting to examine the replacement value of Seager for this M's club.

LA's Justin Upton and Shohei Ohtani are both fall into the 10-day injury container.

Without Upton there is zero protection in the lineup behind Mike Trout. And the combo of Kole Calhoun and Trout are not going to double-handedly score and drive in enough runs for the Angels to win games. The lineup is in absolute need of someone outside the talent box to pick this club up offensively.

Cahill allowed four runs in six innings while losing his first start to Oakland -- in Japan -- and while early his performance was a complete aberration from his historical trends. Four of the six hits that Cahill surrendered were for extra bases (two homers, one triple and one double). The 31-year-old didn't allow multiple homers in any of his 20 starts in 2018. The former A's right-hander allowed a mere eight long balls in 110 innings over 21 appearances as a part of the Oakland pitching staff.

In summary and in defense of Trout and company there are few teams have had worse injury luck these last couple of years than the Angels. It hasn't been mentioned, talked to or argued about; just how important Justin Upton is for this team's success, him hitting on the backside of Trout.

The Halos have scored six runs in their four losses and six runs in their lone victory. In their only win of the season Trout doubled in a pair of runs and scored in a 2-for-4 performance at the dish.

The Mariners most talented arm takes the mound tonight. Marco Gonzales won his first start in Japan against the A's. Gonzales allowed four runs (three earned) on seven hits (two homers) and one walk with four strikeouts over six innings. It wasn't a performance that will be water level of Marco for the 2019 season. In fact the southpaw was anything but pretty on the mound. Gonzales allowed Oakland to score in each of the first three innings while yielding a pair of long balls. He did what most good pitchers do and that was settle down and find his release point in the mid-innings and assisted his teammates in a win.

MG was not messing around in his first start. He attacked the strike zone in an aggressive nature and it was the first start of the season... where more mistakes are made than in any series of MLB events... every single season.

Gonzales threw just 69 to complete six frames. He threw 51 of his 60 pitches not just for strikes, but over the hill (plate) and through/between the woods (arm pits and knees) for strikes. And note he takes the mound with extra rest tonight, having tossed the opening day event on March 20th.

Gonzo is 8-4 in his career when pitching on more than five days' rest.

2018: 7-4
2017: 1-0

Furthermore Gonzales went 3-0 with a 3.34 ERA in six starts versus the Angels last season. He has not had much success against Trout (8-for-17, one homer) but that was when Trout had protection behind him. And Marco has owned Albert in his career... containing Pujols (2-for-17) in eight career starts.

The money-line in this Tuesday night contest offers as much as 30 cents of value. My power rankings and opening ML in this contest was Gonzalez -140. After Marco G opened at as high as -140 in this contest, which was my opening number, most of the Vegas and Offshore shops have reduced the outlay one has to support in backing the M's tonight.

SEATTLE MARINERS -106

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-02-2019, 11:22 AM

baseball33

Los Angeles Dodgers -1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-02-2019, 11:22 AM

Kyle Markus (VegasInsider)

CBB
Texas +2 (Best Bet)
Texas/TCU Over 137.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-02-2019, 11:23 AM

Kyle Markus (VegasInsider)

NBA
Warriors -8
Warriors/Nuggets Over 219

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-02-2019, 11:23 AM

Tim Wilkinson (VegasInsider)

CBB
Wichita State pk
Wichita State/Lipscomb Under 151

NBA
Thunder -12.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-02-2019, 11:23 AM

Rockdeman Sports (MLB)
So far 2-1 (+312.00) New Parlay System..
Rock said going to try it for 30 days & see where he ends up..
All parlays are for 100.00

Today Risk 100 Win 212
Red Sox
Mariners/Angels Over 8.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-02-2019, 11:23 AM

Doc Sports

5 Unit Play. Take #712 TCU -1.5 over Texas (9:30p.m., Tuesday, April 2 ESPN)
4 Unit Play. Take TCU (+250) to win the 2019 NIT.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-02-2019, 11:23 AM

From Northcoast group of handicappers:

------------------------------------
Accu Picks

NBA
3* #579/580 LA Lakers/Oklahoma City OVER 224

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-02-2019, 02:07 PM

Ken Thomson

1*
Marshall / Hampton Under 174.5

1*
Wis.-Green Bay / Texas Southern Under 176.5

1*
Lipscomb +1

1*
Tcu -120

Service Plays Tuesday 4/2/19

Service Plays Tuesday 4/2/19

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