Service Plays Wednesday 4/3/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

11th Hour
11th: MLB, 8u: 908 MIA+188. 912 ATL-1.5+155. 926 OAK+127. 913 SF+170. NCAAB, 8u: 718 DEP-5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Bryant
3% Mavericks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stats Analytics Sports

NBA Top 3* Play
Utah Jazz -10.5

1* Timberwolves/Mavs Over 225.5

[dawggy]

Tony Finn

FINN NL GAME OF THE WEEK (8-1)
Game:(911) Chicago Cubs at (912) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: Apr 3 2019 7:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Over 8.5 (-120)

View Analysis

PLAY: Over the Total of 8.5 runs (good to 9)
3% game rating
List Starters: Lester and Teheran

The Braves are back home in hitter friendly SunTrust Park. Atlanta sends Julio Teheran to the mound for their home opener. Teheran was named the opening day starter for the Braves for the 6th straight season. However, it was only because he has the experience in the role and Mike Foltynewicz was injured in camp.

Teheran has been on a slow and steady decline for the last few year. Most notably it took a ridiculous amount of luck on batted balls (.217, 36% hard hit rate) to even keep him in the rotation a season ago.

We will strike fast and hard early this year catching a handicap benefit on the bookmakers totals. Despite the event being a pitcher-hitting affair the opening 8.5 over-under figures to close at 9, or a juicy 8.5.

And unless something drastically changes Teheran will need a small miracle in terms of run support to be reality and fantasy relevant this season.

The right-hander has lost nearly two mph of average velocity on his fastball. This because he is throwing from the stretch exclusively. Camp saw the Braves righty strike out 16 in 12 innings of work. However, bases on balls were a huge issue for Teheran last year (11.6%) and this Cubs team's offensive aim heading into 2019 was being more selective at the plate. A serious negative for Teheran in an early April contest.

Furthermore Teheran's fly ball tendencies are an issue at SunTrust and when opposing lineups that sport power -- e.g. tonight vs the Cubs.

The Braves slugged lefties a season ago slashing .269/.336/.444/.780.

The Cubs head into Atlanta having lost three in a row. The issue with this Chicago team this season won't be scoring runs. The team's issue will be preventing the opposition from doing so. Chicago has surrendered 27 runs on 34 hits across 24 1/3 innings during the losing streak. And note that skipper Joe Madden will be pulling his hair out this year due to the team's lack of athleticism in the field. This will be one of the least proficient defensive teams in the National League.

The Cubs starter Jon Lester has a history of doing his best work in the early stages of a campaign. But in the end, like the Braves Teheran, the better part of Lester's career is in the rearview mirror. Despite the lefty impressing before the break a season ago with a 2.58 ERA and 1.19 WHIP during the first half of the season, his 4.61 xFIP screamed regression. A quick review of his numbers post-All-Star break saw the lefty owning a 6.69 ERA and 1.69 WHIP through mid-August. There was little reason to look any further at his second half numbers. In addition his strand rate dropped from a high 83.6% during the first half to just 68.5% after the break while his BABIP allowed jumped from a low .253 to .347 during that same span.

Note that Lester's HR/9 allowed jumped from 1.05 (pre-All Star in 2018) to 2.23 with a high fly ball and line drive percentage.

OVER the TOTAL of 8.5 runs

[Fades_Everything]

The Champ's Pythagorean System Picks For 4/3




[NHL] 1.5* Star: Flames

[FATMANWINS]

allan desrosiers
baseball
5 braves

[FATMANWINS]

allan desrosiers
hoops
5 depaul

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Dave Essler
Triple Dime South Florida +6

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Goodfella
3* Memphis over 215

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Seabass : 400 DePaul game over , clippers game over 200 cards , Oakland , sf giants

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones
La Clippers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Barner


UTAH -10


UTAH @ PHOENIX | 4/03 | 10:00 PM EDT
9:40 AM
The Suns don’t have a great roster and will be in even worse shape with Deandre Ayton (ankle) out for the second straight game. These two teams just met in Utah last week, a game in which the Jazz won by a whopping 33 points. The Jazz are 3-0 ATS versus the Suns this year and I like their chances of making it 4-0 Wednesday.

56-40-3 IN LAST 99 NBA ATS PICKS | +1162
4-1-1 IN LAST 6 PHO ATS PICKS | +289

8-5 IN LAST 13 UTA ATS PICKS | +245


ATLANTA +5


PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA | 4/03 | 7:30 PM EDT
9:39 AM
These two teams just faced off in Atlanta less than two weeks ago, a game in which the Hawks won by two points. The Sixers had their full complement of stars for that matchup, but will be without Joel Embiid (rest) on Wednesday. Jimmy Butler (back) is also questionable after sitting out Monday. The Hawks won’t have Dewayne Dedmon (ankle), but I still like their chances to keep this close. With the Sixers just 6-11 ATS as road favorites, I’ll take the points.

56-40-3 IN LAST 99 NBA ATS PICKS | +1162
4-1 IN LAST 5 ATL ATS PICKS | +290


DALLAS +1


MINNESOTA @ DALLAS | 4/03 | 8:30 PM EDT
9:38 AM
The Mavericks are coming off of impressive wins against the Thunder and Sixers. The crazy part is, Luka Doncic (thigh) didn’t play in either of those contests. He’s listed as questionable Wednesday and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sit once again. Even if he doesn't play, I still like this matchup for the Mavericks. They are 22-15-1 ATS at home and the Timberwolves, who have plenty of their own injury issues, are 16-23 ATS on the road. They’ve also lost nine of their last 10 games on the road, so I’ll take the Mavericks to win.

56-40-3 IN LAST 99 NBA ATS PICKS | +1162
3-1 IN LAST 4 MIN ATS PICKS | +184

6-4 IN LAST 10 DAL ATS PICKS | +159

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Hartstein


WASHINGTON -9.5


CHICAGO @ WASHINGTON | 4/03 | 7:00 PM EDT
6:36 PM
The Bulls, who have lost five straight games, will be playing three G Leaguers against Washington and are clearly counting down the days to the offseason. Meanwhile, Wizards rookie forward Troy Brown is finally getting his chance to play and has thrived, scoring 19.5 points and shooting 72.7 percent on 3-pointers (8-of-11) in his last two games. Take Washington to cover.

73-53-1 IN LAST 127 NBA ATS PICKS | +1469
33-13-2 IN LAST 48 CHI ATS PICKS | +1886

2-1 IN LAST 3 WAS ATS PICKS | +89


PORTLAND -11


MEMPHIS @ PORTLAND | 4/03 | 10:00 PM EDT
2:31 PM
The Grizzlies have hung tough despite a brutal slew of injuries, but now they've also lost their big man, Jonas Valanciunas, who was averaging 15.6 points and 8.6 rebounds. They just don't have the personnel to compete anymore. The Blazers have won 10 of 12, have all the motivation in the world, and much better depth to compensate for their significant injuries. Look for big games again from Rodney Hood, Seth Curry and Enes Kanter as Portland rolls.

73-53-1 IN LAST 127 NBA ATS PICKS | +1469
34-18 IN LAST 52 MEM ATS PICKS | +1445

5-0 IN LAST 5 POR ATS PICKS | +500


HOUSTON -1.5


HOUSTON @ L.A. CLIPPERS | 4/03 | 10:30 PM EDT
2:12 PM
This looks like a terrible scheduling spot for the Rockets, who played last night in Sacramento while the Clippers have been resting since Sunday. But Houston wasn't threatened by the Kings, so no starter played 30 minutes. With the Rockets' Big Three healthy and rolling, I'll back Houston despite the spot.

73-53-1 IN LAST 127 NBA ATS PICKS | +1469
36-25 IN LAST 61 LAC ATS PICKS | +890


DETROIT -1.5


INDIANA @ DETROIT | 4/03 | 7:00 PM EDT
9:58 AM
Both teams are banged up, but I like the Pistons to avenge their nine-point loss at Indiana two days ago. Detroit has covered 11 straight home games while the Pacers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 on the road. Lay the small number.

73-53-1 IN LAST 127 NBA ATS PICKS | +1469
30-22-1 IN LAST 53 DET ATS PICKS | +633

21-16 IN LAST 37 IND ATS PICKS | +358


DALLAS +1


MINNESOTA @ DALLAS | 4/03 | 8:30 PM EDT
9:45 AM
The Timberwolves won their last road game, at Memphis, but that was a spot where they caught the Grizzlies on the second night of a back-to-back. Before that Minnesota had dropped nine straight road games and 13 of 14 (the lone win being at the lowly Knicks). Grab the home dog.

73-53-1 IN LAST 127 NBA ATS PICKS | +1469
8-2 IN LAST 10 MIN ATS PICKS | +580

13-10 IN LAST 23 DAL ATS PICKS | +193