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4 units - #956 Braves (-105) VS NY Mets *7:20 EST
Atlanta lost the series opener 6-3 last night but look for them to bounce back against the Mets. Zack Wheeler (0-1, 10.24 ERA) is not mowing down many bats for New York and even with that win on Thursday, the Metropolitans are 21-44 against NL teams averaging 5 or more runs a game. Also, teams with an on-base percentage of .375 or better over their last five games, with a bullpen whose WHIP is over 2.00 the last five games, are 4-21 since 2017.
2 Units - #965 Rays (-130) vs Toronto *7 EST
Tampa Bay has picked up right where they left off last year with an 11-3 start to the season, including 5-1 on the road. The Rays are doing the committee bullpen again with Ryan Stanek going an inning or two and right now the Tampa Bay bullpen is 3rd in baseball in ERA. The Rays offense has been outstanding away from home at 6.0 RPG and that not just going deep, as they are hitting .302 with an OPB of .379. Toronto has started about as expected at 4-9 and made trades this month already signaling they are looking ahead. With the Rays 26-10 after a win by four runs or more, they take the series lid-lifter.
SAN ANTONIO @ DENVER | 4/13 | 10:30 PM EDT
11:17 AM
The Nuggets were an NBA-best 34-7 at home this season, including 25-16 ATS. The Spurs weren’t far behind them at 32-9 at home, but they were an abysmal 16-25 on the road. Only the Pistons had a worse record of any team to make the playoffs. The Nuggets won both games between these two teams that were played in Denver this year, including a 28-point victory less than two weeks ago. Look for the Nuggets to start off the series with a win and cover along the way.
61-45-3 IN LAST 109 NBA ATS PICKS | +1109
7-2-1 IN LAST 10 SA ATS PICKS | +479
BROOKLYN +8
BROOKLYN @ PHILADELPHIA | 4/13 | 2:30 PM EDT
11:15 AM
The key to this game is the status of Joel Embiid (knee), who might not be able to play. If he doesn’t take the floor, the Nets have a real shot at winning. Even if he does play, the Nets were a tough road team this year, posting a 25-16 ATS record. Based on this lofty line, I’ll take the Nets and the points.
61-45-3 IN LAST 109 NBA ATS PICKS | +1109
5-4 IN LAST 9 PHI ATS PICKS | +55
L.A. CLIPPERS +12.5
L.A. CLIPPERS @ GOLDEN ST. | 4/13 | 8:00 PM EDT
11:14 AM
This series is expected to be heavily one-sided, hence the big line for Game 1. However, the Clippers were 22-17-2 ATS on the road while the Warriors were 16-24-1 ATS at home during the regular season. The Warriors should crank things up with the playoffs underway and grab a win to start the series, but I think the Clippers keep it close enough to where I like taking the points.
61-45-3 IN LAST 109 NBA ATS PICKS | +1109
9-4 IN LAST 13 GS ATS PICKS | +451
OKLAHOMA CITY @ PORTLAND | 4/14 | 3:30 PM EDT
11:48 AM
The Thunder swept four games against Portland this season, which is one of the reasons why this number is so low. Oklahoma City gets 19.7 percent of its possessions in transition (fourth most in the NBA), but the playoffs have a way of slowing down fast-break teams. Home-court advantage is huge in the playoffs, and the Blazers' fans are as rabid as any.
82-65-1 IN LAST 148 NBA ATS PICKS | +1043
28-19 IN LAST 47 OKC ATS PICKS | +761
7-2 IN LAST 9 POR ATS PICKS | +480
TORONTO -8.5
ORLANDO @ TORONTO | 4/13 | 5:00 PM EDT
11:30 AM
These teams met on April 1, and Toronto blew out the Magic by 12. The Raptors have been pointing to the playoffs all season, while Orlando is just happy to be back in the postseason. Take Toronto.
82-65-1 IN LAST 148 NBA ATS PICKS | +1043
13-9 IN LAST 22 TOR ATS PICKS | +301
3-2 IN LAST 5 ORL ATS PICKS | +77
BROOKLYN +8
BROOKLYN @ PHILADELPHIA | 4/13 | 2:30 PM EDT
11:25 AM
Even if Joel Embiid plays, I'm taking the Nets to cover. Brooklyn split the four games between the teams this season and covered in three of them.
82-65-1 IN LAST 148 NBA ATS PICKS | +1043
16-11 IN LAST 27 PHI ATS PICKS | +390
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