Saturday 4-13-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-13-2019, 08:12 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise

Turf Paradise - Race 8

$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta

Optional Claiming $20,000 • 7 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 95 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 4:58P
(PLUS UP TO 10% PLUS 10%) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER,STATE BRED OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 13 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. (RAIL SET AT 21 FEET).
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * GONE TO BALI: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. PANOE: Hors e's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. MISS BOOM BOOM: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. BOOMERANG MISS: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route )/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. VEILED HEAT: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50.
6
GONE TO BALI
6/1

5/1
5
PANOE
12/1

6/1
1
MISS BOOM BOOM
5/1

6/1
3
BOOMERANG MISS
3/1

9/1
4
VEILED HEAT
2/1

10/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
6
GONE TO BALI
6

6/1
Front-runner
94

95

93.9

87.2

83.2
8
TORENO
8

8/1
Front-runner
79

85

83.0

80.2

65.7
4
VEILED HEAT
4

2/1
Front-runner
88

87

72.4

79.2

64.7
5
PANOE
5

12/1
Stalker
97

91

106.2

89.1

82.1
3
BOOMERANG MISS
3

3/1
Stalker
94

91

72.0

84.4

77.4
1
MISS BOOM BOOM
1

5/1
Alternator/Stalker
98

89

56.9

92.0

86.0
7
PRINCESS O'PRADO
7

20/1
Trailer
84

67

31.7

74.5

60.5
9
PLEASE DO
9

8/1
Trailer
94

78

0.0

0.0

0.0
2
MCKENZIE HONEY
2

10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
90

87

81.8

84.1

74.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-13-2019, 08:13 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National

Penn National - Race 3

W-P-S / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / $0.20 Penn Pick 6 (Races 3-8)

Claiming $4,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 88 • Purse: $10,800 • Post: 6:59P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 13. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 13 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds

Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SPEIGHTSHILL: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a lay off. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. NEGRITO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DISCREET DAN: Today is a sprint and thi s is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TRIUMPHANT JOY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today' s distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
6
SPEIGHTSHILL
2/1

7/2
3
NEGRITO
9/2

6/1
4
DISCREET DAN
4/1

9/1
2
TRIUMPHANT JOY
3/1

10/1

P#

Horse (In Running Style Order)

Post

Morn
Line

Running Style

Good
Class

Good
Speed

Early Figure

Finish Figure

Platinum
Figure
2
TRIUMPHANT JOY
2

3/1
Front-runner
80

84

75.2

66.4

60.4
1
SILVER TROPHY
1

7/2
Alternator/Front-runner
75

66

56.4

68.8

61.8
3
NEGRITO
3

9/2
Stalker
93

87

57.8

68.4

62.9
6
SPEIGHTSHILL
6

2/1
Alternator/Stalker
97

92

67.4

79.6

75.6
4
DISCREET DAN
4

4/1
Alternator/Stalker
85

78

64.0

73.0

66.0
5
BRILLIANT WARRIOR
5

15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
82

75

0.0

0.0

0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-13-2019, 08:16 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Keeneland

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 79

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE FEBRUARY 13 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 DON'T STOP MARIA 4/1

# 1 LUCY'S TOWN 9/2

# 2 LUREY AN 5/2

DON'T STOP MARIA has a quite good shot to take this race. Garnered a sound speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this affair. Has run soundly when racing a dirt sprint race. Has been racing quite well in races of this distance, going 2 for 9 under similar conditions. LUCY'S TOWN - She has been running strongly and the Equibase Speed Figs are among the strongest in this group of horses. The Equibase Speed Figure of 79 from her most recent race looks very strong in here. LUREY AN - Must be given a chance here on the basis of the figs in the speed realm alone.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-13-2019, 08:16 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Laurel - Race #3 - Post: 2:12pm - Maiden Special - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $40,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 CYCLICAL (ML=6/1)
#8 MADDING CROWD (ML=2/1)

CYCLICAL - I like the way this filly's finish positions have gotten better with each start recently. A sign of a horse coming into top form. Not much early speed in this race other than this horse. Filly took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. That recent bullet 115.6 work shows that this filly is ready for a top performance today. MADDING CROWD - Just check out her recent speed fig, 78. That one looks good in this field. Gonzalez drops her down to this class level. You don't need too much more from the pp lines to figure that this one should have a chance to win at this level.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 AFTER JODY (ML=7/2), #7 APPEALING HONOR (ML=5/1), #3 COLORADO CLASS (ML=6/1),

AFTER JODY - No picnic to play any horse in a sprint clash if she hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last sixty days. APPEALING HONOR - Don't figure that this runner has what it takes to win in today's event. COLORADO CLASS - Didn't look so good last time. Probably won't make an impact today. When looking at today's class rating, she will have to garner a much better speed figure than last time around the track to vie in this dirt sprint.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - MADDING CROWD - Changing surface from the turf, at Tampa Bay Downs, to the dirt today, this mount has a good chance to get her first victory.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#4 CYCLICAL is the play if we get odds of 7/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-13-2019, 08:17 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 870y on the Dirt. Purse: $15800 Class Rating: 77

QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 WICKED VALENTINE 7/2

# 3 ADMIRAL ZOOMWALT 2/1

# 5 FDS OF SEATTLE 10/1

I back WICKED VALENTINE here. Has to be carefully examined here on the basis of the numbers in the speed department alone. The extreme drop in company can only help this horse today. Looks like a strong contender for the exotics. ADMIRAL ZOOMWALT - Is a definite contender - given the 73 speed rating from his most recent race. Is a solid contender based on figs put up as of late under today's conditions. FDS OF SEATTLE - Has been racing solidly in races of this distance, going 9 for 29 under similar conditions. Likely to see a strong performance with the class drop.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-13-2019, 08:17 AM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park

04/13/19, GP, Race 12, 6.27 ET
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.38.01 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $47,000.
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD
$1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5 / $2 HRR - (RED 1,8,9: 1/1. BLK 3,4,10,11,12,13: 7/5. GRN 2,5,6,7,14,15: 10/1.)
Top Horse(100.0000) - Races 154, Win Percent 27.92, $1 ROI 0.94, For Race Category MSW_MCLM Turf
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse with stats MUST be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to GPS.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags Profit ROI WPC W# Occ
100.0000 9 A Fera(b-) 6-1 Jaramillo E Caramori Eduardo SFEWL 49.00 1.29 35.29 30 85
097.9892 12 Valiance 6-1 Prado E S Pletcher Todd A. T 16.20 1.62 38.46 5 13
097.4213 8 La Australiana 8-1 Zayas E J Avila Juan Carlos C 53.60 1.54 40.00 20 50
095.2257 10 Final Adventure 15-1 Cruz M R Joseph. Jr. Saffie A. 17.00 1.08 30.09 34 113
094.8868 4 To a Friend 4-1 Lynch F Thomas Jonathan 16.20 1.62 38.46 5 13
094.6666 1 Dyna Passer 3-1 Vasquez M A Albertrani Thomas 49.00 1.29 35.29 30 85
094.3670 15 Elite Appeal 15-1 Lopez P Plesa. Jr. Edward 54.80 1.53 40.38 21 52
093.5881 5 Life in Flash 15-1 Lopez P Breen Kelly J. 16.20 1.62 38.46 5 13
093.3178 6 Call to Victory 20-1 Rendon J Walsh Brendan P. J 99.00 3.61 10.53 2 19
092.9262 3 Great Sister Diane 12-1 Batista J A Dwoskin Steven 99.00 3.61 10.53 2 19
092.8372 13 Triumphant 15-1 Jaramillo E Hennig Mark A. 54.80 1.53 40.38 21 52
092.6570 11 Dancensing 12-1 Panici L Mott William I. 49.00 1.29 35.29 30 85
092.2552 14 Sweeter Than Wine 20-1 Juarez N Margotta. Jr. Anthony 99.00 3.61 10.53 2 19
091.6573 2 Claddagh's Run 15-1 Juarez N Weaver George 16.20 1.62 38.46 5 13
090.1023 7 Sassifleet 30-1 Gonzales J J Delgado Gustavo 99.00 3.61 10.53 2 19
P# 9 [Turf Mdn] Last Race Sprint or Route Same As Today
P# 12 [Turf Mdn] Race Surface Not fst/wf or fm/hd
P# 8 [Turf Mdn] Last Race Distance Equal To Today
P# 10 [Turf Mdn] Last Race Distance Not Greater Than Today
P# 4 [Turf Mdn] Race Surface Not fst/wf or fm/hd
P# 1 [Turf Mdn] Last Race Sprint or Route Same As Today
P# 15 [Turf Mdn] Last Race Not 3rd Race After 45 Days Off
P# 5 [Turf Mdn] Race Surface Not fst/wf or fm/hd
P# 6 [Turf Mdn] Last Race 5f Workout Since
P# 3 [Turf Mdn] Last Race 5f Workout Since
P# 13 [Turf Mdn] Last Race Not 3rd Race After 45 Days Off
P# 11 [Turf Mdn] Last Race Sprint or Route Same As Today
P# 14 [Turf Mdn] Last Race 5f Workout Since
P# 2 [Turf Mdn] Race Surface Not fst/wf or fm/hd
P# 7 [Turf Mdn] Last Race 5f Workout Since
If Race Is Off Turf
Top Horse(100.0000) - Races 274, Win Percent 28.47, $1 ROI 0.87, For Race Category MSW_MCLM Dirt
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse with stats MUST be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to GPS.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags Profit ROI WPC W# Occ
100.0000 9 A Fera(b-) 6-1 Jaramillo E Caramori Eduardo SFEL 15.00 1.09 35.80 29 81
097.6362 4 To a Friend 4-1 Lynch F Thomas Jonathan W 10.60 1.12 30.43 14 46
097.5813 12 Valiance 6-1 Prado E S Pletcher Todd A. T 10.60 1.12 30.43 14 46
096.2489 8 La Australiana 8-1 Zayas E J Avila Juan Carlos C 10.60 1.12 30.43 14 46
094.7828 10 Final Adventure 15-1 Cruz M R Joseph. Jr. Saffie A. 24.80 1.33 36.84 14 38
093.5230 6 Call to Victory 20-1 Rendon J Walsh Brendan P. J 37.40 1.72 26.92 7 26
093.4924 5 Life in Flash 15-1 Lopez P Breen Kelly J. 10.60 1.12 30.43 14 46
093.2670 3 Great Sister Diane 12-1 Batista J A Dwoskin Steven 37.40 1.72 26.92 7 26
093.2655 1 Dyna Passer 3-1 Vasquez M A Albertrani Thomas 24.80 1.33 36.84 14 38
092.9791 13 Triumphant 15-1 Jaramillo E Hennig Mark A. 15.00 1.09 35.80 29 81
092.4022 14 Sweeter Than Wine 20-1 Juarez N Margotta. Jr. Anthony 37.40 1.72 26.92 7 26
092.2421 11 Dancensing 12-1 Panici L Mott William I. 24.80 1.33 36.84 14 38
091.9864 2 Claddagh's Run 15-1 Juarez N Weaver George 10.60 1.12 30.43 14 46
091.8492 15 Elite Appeal 15-1 Lopez P Plesa. Jr. Edward 15.00 1.09 35.80 29 81
091.3348 7 Sassifleet 30-1 Gonzales J J Delgado Gustavo 37.40 1.72 26.92 7 26
P# 9 [Dirt Mdn] Last Race Distance Less Than Today
P# 4 [Dirt Mdn] Race Distance Route
P# 12 [Dirt Mdn] Race Distance Route
P# 8 [Dirt Mdn] Race Distance Route
P# 10 [Dirt Mdn] Last Race 1st Race After 45 Days Off
P# 6 [Dirt Mdn] Last Race 5f Workout Since
P# 5 [Dirt Mdn] Race Distance Route
P# 3 [Dirt Mdn] Last Race 5f Workout Since
P# 1 [Dirt Mdn] Last Race 1st Race After 45 Days Off
P# 13 [Dirt Mdn] Last Race Distance Less Than Today
P# 14 [Dirt Mdn] Last Race 5f Workout Since
P# 11 [Dirt Mdn] Last Race 1st Race After 45 Days Off
P# 2 [Dirt Mdn] Race Distance Route
P# 15 [Dirt Mdn] Last Race Distance Less Than Today
P# 7 [Dirt Mdn] Last Race 5f Workout Since

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-13-2019, 08:18 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Oaklawn Park - Race #12 - Post: 7:15pm - Maiden Special - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $95,000 Class Rating: 89

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 FLATOUT WINNER (ML=5/1)
#6 COWBOY DIPLOMACY (ML=5/2)
#3 ROTATION (ML=3/1)
#7 SPEED APP (ML=10/1)
#8 VERVE'S HUMOR (ML=7/2)

FLATOUT WINNER - Stick with this horse. No other viable early speed gives this animal a strong chance at the winner's circle. This jock and handler have a positive ROI when they partner up. Last out on March 5th was a good tune-up for today. Got respectable betting action in that one, but finished second. Has to do better in this event. COWBOY DIPLOMACY - The rider and handler combination here have a high win pct when they are put together. Rider hops back atop after getting to know the race horse by riding last time around the track. That's always a helpful angle. This colt is in good form. Ran third on March 16th. ROTATION - Have to make this colt a solid contender; he comes off a solid effort on Mar 16th. Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this horse is encountering an easier group than last race out at Oaklawn Park. The 93 last race figure looks strong in the TrackMaster PPs. SPEED APP - This horse coming off a strong race in the last month is a contender in my opinion. Look at this pattern of improvement. 82/84/89 are the last three speed figs. VERVE'S HUMOR - This one has increased his speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is important to note. Stewart will try adding the 'shades' today in hopes of an improved performance.

Vulnerable Contenders: No Vulnerable Contenders in this race,

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#5 FLATOUT WINNER is the play if we get odds of 6/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[5,6] with [3,5,6] with [3,5,6,7,8] with [3,5,6,7,8] Total Cost: $24

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-13-2019, 08:18 AM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Aqueduct

04/13/19, AQU, Race 8, 5.21 ET
1 1/8M [Dirt] 1.47.00 STAKES. Purse $200,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double
Top Horse(100.0000) - Races 876, Win Percent 30.14, $1 ROI 0.88, For Race Category Non-Maiden Dirt
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse with stats MUST be the top rated horse for the profitable condition to be valid.
Profits are for $2 Win bets. ROI is based on $1. Stats are by [category] and exclusive to AQU.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags Profit ROI WPC W# Occ
100.0000 2 Another Broad 8-1 Franco M Pletcher Todd A. W 140.60 1.60 19.49 23 118
099.1167 1 Midnight Disguise 6-1 Lezcano J Rice Linda JEC 140.60 1.60 19.49 23 118
098.7912 3 Jump Ruler 9/2 Maragh R Atras Rob TFL 29.60 1.17 40.70 35 86
097.8090 4 Frostie Anne 5/2 Diaz. Jr. H R Rodriguez Rudy R. 140.60 1.60 19.49 23 118
097.5570 6 Forever Liesl 2-1 Cancel E Nevin Michelle S 140.60 1.60 19.49 23 118
096.9765 5 My Miss Lilly 7/2 Bravo J Hennig Mark A. 140.60 1.60 19.49 23 118
P# 2 [Dirt NonMdn] Last Race 5f Workout Since
P# 1 [Dirt NonMdn] Last Race 5f Workout Since
P# 3 [Dirt NonMdn] Last Race Claimed
P# 4 [Dirt NonMdn] Last Race 5f Workout Since
P# 6 [Dirt NonMdn] Last Race 5f Workout Since
P# 5 [Dirt NonMdn] Last Race 5f Workout Since

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-13-2019, 08:24 AM

Saturday's Early Tips
Chris David

Eastern Conference First Round – Game 1

No. 6 Brooklyn at No. 3 Philadelphia (ESPN, 2:30 p.m. ET)

2018-19 Regular Season (Split 2-2, Over 3-1)
Mar. 28 - 76ers (-7) 123 vs. Nets 110 (Over 231.5)
Dec. 12 – Nets (+6) 127 at 76ers 123 (Over 224.5)
Nov. 25 – 76ers (-4.5) 127 at Nets 125 (Over 226)
Nov. 4 – Nets (+4) 122 vs. 76ers 97 (Under 224)

The NBA playoff opener will begin at the Wells Fargo Center with Philadelphia and Brooklyn meeting in an afternoon matchup. Oddsmakers opened the 76ers as seven-point favorites and the number dipped to -6 on Friday evening after an injury update was posted.

That alert was focused on 76ers All-Star forward Joel Embiid (knee) as he was downgraded to ‘doubtful’ for Game 1. The big man has missed 18 games this season and 14 of those came in the final 24 games. The 76ers went 8-10 in those contests.

Brooklyn is certainly hoping the big man sits out since Embiid has owned the Nets with 30 points per game, 14.3 rebounds and five assists in four games. The 76ers were a plus-27 with him on the floor against the Nets and minus-58 when the big man was on the bench. Saying he won’t be missed on both sides of the floor is a serious understatement.

If Embiid doesn’t go, Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris will get his shots and both have been solid against Brooklyn so far. The 76ers are 2-0 versus the Nets this season with Butler in the lineup and 1-0 with Harris.
With or without the All-Star center, the homecourt of Philadelphia is still one of the best in the league and that showed this season as the club went 31-10 straight up and 21-20 against the spread in front of its fans. In the second-half of the season at home, the 76ers finished 8-3 SU and 5-6 ATS down the stretch.

Brooklyn has a lot of fresh faces that will be in the playoffs for the first time and this group often plays like it has nothing to lose. The Nets love to chuck from distance, averaging 36.2 attempts from 3-point land this season and that’s both won and lost them plenty games. Head coach Kenny Atkinson has done a great job rebuilding this franchise and he’s developed some nice players along the way, especially in the backcourt.

Guards D'Angelo Russell (21 PPG, 7.3 APG), an All-Star, and Spencer Dinwiddie (23.8 PPG) both posted great numbers against Philadelphia this season and if those guys both get going, the Nets certainly have the ability to hang around perhaps surprise.

On the road, the Nets went 19-22 SU this season and the offense (110.7 PPG) wasn’t as potent away from the Barclays Center. For bettors, the club was 25-16 ATS overall and Brooklyn enters this game on a 6-1 ATS run in its last seven road games, the lone non-cover coming to the 76ers on March 28. In that 123-110 decision, the 76ers had its main five starters on the court which included Embiid.

After missing the postseason for five consecutive seasons, the 76ers made a return trip last year and they were eliminated in the second round by the Boston Celtics. In five home games, Philadelphia went 3-2 both SU and ATS and the point-spread didn’t matter in any of the games. The three wins were all by double digits and the ‘under’ went 4-1 in those games. The Nets haven’t been in the playoffs since 2015 when they lost in six games (4-2) to the Hawks in the first round.

Total bettors will be staring at a number hovering around 232 points. The 76ers offense at home (118.2 PPG) has really thrived, opposed to its road numbers (112.1 PPG). The club has often come out firing at home too, averaging 31.4 PPG in the first quarter and that’s the best mark in the league.

Philadelphia (42-40) and Brooklyn (41-41) didn’t have any glaring total leans (O/U) this season but the high side went 3-1 in their four meetings. Knowing the Nets aren’t great defensively, it’s not surprising to know they averaged 117.1 PPG in their wins and 107 PPG in their losses. The offenisve scoring difference on wins (119.2 PPG) and losses (108.6 PPG) was even larger for Philadelphia.

Game 2 will take place from Philadelphia on Monday before the series heads back to Brooklyn on Thursday.

Eastern Conference First Round – Game 1

No. 7 Orlando at No. 2 Toronto (ESPN, 5:00 p.m. ET)

2018-19 Regular Season (Split 2-2, Under 3-1)
Apr. 1 – Raptors (-6.5) 121 vs. Magic 109 (Over 216)
Feb. 24 – Magic (+7) 113 at Raptors 98 (Under 216.5)
Dec. 28 – Magic (+4.5) 116 vs. Raptors 87 (Under 207.5)
Nov. 20 – Raptors (-7) 93 at Magic 91 (Under 219)

Even though Toronto is listed as high as a -1500 series favorite (Bet $100 to win $6.66) over Orlando in this best-of-seven series, I do believe we could see a couple tight games but the favorite will come out on top in the end due to talent and depth.

For Game 1, Toronto opened as 7 ½-point home favorite and the line has been pushed up to 8 ½ as of Friday.

The Raptors went 32-9 at home this season but they weren’t that kind to bettors, producing an 18-23 mark against the spread. Expecting Orlando to win at Scotiabank Arena in the postseason is a tough argument knowing the team went 17-24 as a visitor this season. However, head coach Steve Clifford and company did surprise Toronto 113-98 on Feb. 24 as a road underdog and they turned a profit (23-17-1 ATS) for bettors on the road despite the losing mark.

Toronto is clearly the more talented team in this series but its success can be attributed to rookie head coach Nick Nurse and his ability to keep the group grinding despite using multiple lineups. All-Stars Kawhi Leonard (22) and Kyle Lowry (17) missed a combined 39 games in the regular season yet they still managed to post the 2nd best record in the NBA. For what it’s worth, the Raptors went 30-13 when the aforementioned players were in the lineup together.

After missing the playoffs for six straight seasons, the Magic return to the postseason and they enter this series in great form. Orlando won 11 of its last 13 games and it’s 15-8 record since the All-Star break was ranked seventh-best in the league, tied with Toronto as well.

This is certainly a step up in class for the Magic but a 4-2 record in its last six games as a road underdog shouldn’t be ignored. One of those losses did come to Toronto (Apr. 1) and that game blew up in the second and third quarters for Orlando, who was outscored 66-39 in that 24-minute span. Scoring droughts has been an issue for the Magic, who are ranked 24th in the league with 107.3 PPG and that’s the lowest average among playoff teams.

While the Magic have been hot down the stretch, so has Toronto. The Raptors closed the season with a 7-1 record and it produced a 6-2 ATS mark for bettors. The lone loss came by two points and the defense (104 PPG) has been lights out during this span, which could be the X-factor in this series.

Toronto (108.4 PPG) was ranked ninth in scoring defense while Orlando (106.6 PPG) is fifth in the league. The total for Game 1 opened at 216 and quickly swung to 213. The low side went 3-1 between the pair during the regular season and the early money is leaning to that theme in this series.

The Raptors watched the 'over' go 45-35-2 this season, which includes a 22-18-1 record at home. Meanwhile, Orlando's slower tempo produced a 44-38 mark to the 'under' and that included a 23-18 mark away from home.

Since Orlando hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2012, historical numbers certainly don’t help this squad but make a note that it was defeated 4-1 by the Indiana Pacers in its last visit to the postseason.

For Toronto, this will be its sixth straight trip to the playoffs and cashing tickets at home hasn’t been easy for the Raptors. Since this run started in 2014, Toronto has gone 15-12 SU and 9-16-2 ATS (36%) in playoff games at home. To be fair to the Raptors, five of the last six losses came against LeBron James and he won’t be standing in their way this postseason.

Prior to last year’s Game 1 win over Washington in the first round of the playoffs, the Raptors were 0-9 in opening round matchups dating back to 2000.

The Magic are listed as high as a plus-320 on the money-line for Game 1 but if you’re leaning to the road ‘dog, taking the points appears to be the better option. Including the two meetings this season, Toronto has gone 8-2 SU and 5-4-1 ATS in its last 10 home games versus Orlando.

The pair will have a couple days off before resuming the series in Game 2 on Tuesday from Canada. Orlando’s playoff opener will take place in Game 3 on Friday.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-13-2019, 08:24 AM

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, April 13

Brooklyn @ Philadelphia

Game 501-502
April 13, 2019 @ 2:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Brooklyn
115.453
Philadelphia
112.280
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Brooklyn
by 3
240
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 6
231 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Brooklyn
(+6); Over

Orlando @ Toronto

Game 503-504
April 13, 2019 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Orlando
124.779
Toronto
123.946
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Orlando
by 1
210
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 8 1/2
213
Dunkel Pick:
Orlando
(+8 1/2); Under

LA Clippers @ Golden State

Game 505-506
April 13, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Clippers
114.783
Golden State
130.975
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 16
242
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 12 1/2
232
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-12 1/2); Over

San Antonio @ Denver

Game 517-518
April 13, 2019 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
118.282
Denver
126.725
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 8 1/2
207
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 5 1/2
211
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-5 1/2); Under

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-13-2019, 08:25 AM

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, April 13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BROOKLYN (42 - 40) at PHILADELPHIA (51 - 31) - 4/13/2019, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 140-115 ATS (+13.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 51-35 ATS (+12.5 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 30-18 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 75-55 ATS (+14.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 45-37 ATS (+4.3 Units) in all games this season.
BROOKLYN is 33-23 ATS (+7.7 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
BROOKLYN is 65-51 ATS (+8.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 25-16 ATS (+7.4 Units) in road games this season.
BROOKLYN is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BROOKLYN is 51-34 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 37-22 ATS (+12.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BROOKLYN is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-24 ATS (-13.4 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-27 ATS (-13.7 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 6-5 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 8-4 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ORLANDO (42 - 40) at TORONTO (58 - 24) - 4/13/2019, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in road games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games in April games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 44-35 ATS (+5.5 Units) in all games this season.
ORLANDO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) on Saturday games this season.
ORLANDO is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) against Atlantic division opponents this season.
ORLANDO is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
ORLANDO is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ORLANDO is 36-27 ATS (+6.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
ORLANDO is 36-26 ATS (+7.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
ORLANDO is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
TORONTO is 206-261 ATS (-81.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 6-5 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 7-4 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA CLIPPERS (48 - 34) at GOLDEN STATE (57 - 25) - 4/13/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in April games over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 229-290 ATS (-90.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 136-100 ATS (+26.0 Units) in April games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 68-44 ATS (+19.6 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 27-10 ATS (+16.0 Units) in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in home games after allowing 130 points or more since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 86-58 ATS (+22.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 45-36 ATS (+5.4 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 47-33 ATS (+10.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 60-44 ATS (+11.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 35-46 ATS (-15.6 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-43 ATS (-16.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 37-53 ATS (-21.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 24-36 ATS (-15.6 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 45-59 ATS (-19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 27-41 ATS (-18.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 7-5 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 10-2 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
9 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN ANTONIO (48 - 34) at DENVER (54 - 28) - 4/13/2019, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 25-16 ATS (+7.4 Units) in home games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 1090-956 ATS (+38.4 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 26-8 ATS (+17.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 33-24 ATS (+6.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
DENVER is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 7-4 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 7-4 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-13-2019, 08:25 AM

NBA

Saturday, April 13

Embiid (knee) is a ?? here. Brooklyn is in playoffs for first time in four years; Sixers lost in 2nd round of playoffs LY. 76ers won five of last seven games with Brooklyn; last three series games went over. Nets are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Philly. Nets won/covered their last three games; they covered six of their last seven road games. Under is 12-5 in their last 17 games. 76ers lost four of their last six games; they’re 5-2-2 vs spread in last seven home games. Five of their last six games went over.

Orlando won 11 of its last 13 games; they’re in playoffs for first time in seven years; Raptors are in playoffs for 6th year in row; they won their first round series the last three years. Toronto won six of its last eight games with the Magic; five of last seven series games stayed under. Orlando is 2-2-1 vs spread in its last five visits to Canada. Raptors won seven of last eight games, are 4-3 vs spread in last seven home games. Three of their last four home games went over. Magic covered five of last seven road games. Last seven Orlando games went over the total.

Golden State won three of last four NBA titles; they won first round series five of last six years. Clippers are in playoffs for 6th time in last seven years- their last first round series win was in 2015. Clippers lost three of last four games; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five road games. Over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games. Golden State won six of its last seven games (under 4-2-1). Warriors won eight of last ten games with the Clippers, but LA covered four of last six- Clippers covered four of last five visits to Oakland. Eight of last ten series games went over.

Spurs are in playoffs for 22nd year in a row; they split last four first round series. Nuggets are in playoffs for first time in six years; their last first round series win was in ’09. San Antonio won six of its last nine games; they’re 5-3 vs spread in last eight road games. Five of their last six games stayed under. Denver split its last 12 games, is 2-5 vs spread in last seven home games. Three of their last four games went over. Home side won last ten San Antonio-Denver games; Spurs are 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Denver.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-13-2019, 08:25 AM

501Brooklyn -502 Philadelphia
PHILADELPHIA is 13-1 ATS (11.9 Units) in home games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread in the current season.

503Orlando -504 Toronto
TORONTO is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in home games in April games over the last 2 seasons.

505La Clippers -506 Golden State
LA CLIPPERS are 13-3 ATS (9.7 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

507San Antonio -508 Denver
SAN ANTONIO is 19-2 ATS (16.8 Units) revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points in the current season.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-13-2019, 08:26 AM

NBA

Saturday, April 13

Trend Report

Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Brooklyn is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 6 games
Brooklyn is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Brooklyn is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 7 games on the road
Brooklyn is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Brooklyn is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Brooklyn is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Brooklyn
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Brooklyn
Philadelphia is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Brooklyn

Orlando Magic
Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Orlando is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Orlando's last 5 games
Orlando is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Orlando is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Orlando's last 5 games on the road
Orlando is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Orlando is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 7 games when playing Toronto
Orlando is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Toronto is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Toronto is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games at home
Toronto is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Orlando
Toronto is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing Orlando
Toronto is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Orlando
Toronto is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Orlando
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Orlando

Los Angeles Clippers
LA Clippers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Clippers is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Clippers's last 9 games
LA Clippers is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of LA Clippers's last 23 games on the road
LA Clippers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Golden State
LA Clippers is 2-16 SU in its last 18 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 9 of LA Clippers's last 11 games when playing Golden State
LA Clippers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
LA Clippers is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Golden State's last 21 games
Golden State is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games at home
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Golden State's last 11 games at home
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Clippers
Golden State is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Golden State's last 11 games when playing LA Clippers
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Golden State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Clippers

San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Antonio's last 9 games on the road
San Antonio is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Denver
San Antonio is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver Nuggets
The total has gone UNDER in 19 of Denver's last 25 games
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Denver is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games at home
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games when playing at home against San Antonio
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio

Saturday 4-13-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Saturday 4-13-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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