Service Plays Wednesday 4/17/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alan Harris
4 Unit mil/det over 214

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike Point Sports
3 Unit milwaukee -15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony George
4 Unit 1st half Hou -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy
4 Unit Indiana +7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alan Eastman
5 Unit Hou -6.5
4Unit 1st half Hou -3.5
4 Unit Hou team total over 109.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Davis
7 Unit mil/det over 214

7-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 214 Detroit at Milwaukee (Wednesday, April 17 at 8:00 p.m)Again, the one thing we've learned so far in these playoffs is that teams will bounce back from game one. I look for that to happen tonight in Milwaukee. Detroit will play much better offensively but I'm still not convinced they can keep this within the number. However, their better offensive play should lead to an easy cover on the Over.
The Bucks are going to play fast and score a lot of points. They averaged 119.9 points per game at home during the regular season. They scored 121 in the first game of this series and that was in a blowout effort. I can see them scoring that much or more in a "closer" game.
I do see this being a closer game and I believe that comes because the Pistons will play better offensively. They simply couldn't get anything started in game 1. Griffin is obviously not 100% but that could help us in this situation. When Blake is completely healthy, the offense can slow down and they run a lot of things through him and ask him to bail them out late in the clock. I look for the Pistons to change that up tonight and look to get out in transition. They need easy buckets to keep this game close. They know it.
This total is relatively low and I like the value of it. I look for the Bucks to continue to play fast and I look for a different Detroit offense tonight.

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK

BASEBALL PLAYS

Game: (917) Cleveland Indians at (918) Seattle Mariners
Date/Time: Apr 17 2019 6:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Cleveland Indians -125

View Analysis

Maybe the funniest (read:MOST RIDICULOUS) stat you'll find in any nook or cranny of the massive stats kept in MLB so far on this young season is Carlos Carrasco's BABIP....coming in at .613!!! League worst by a couple HUNDRED points...also he has the MLB's worst ERA at 12.60. He's had 3 starts. Ok...pick your jaws up off the floor, take a shot of Jack and take in his FIP is 4.84, xFIP at 4.11, and SIERA is 3.42!

Dude be getting Hosed and it Just. Ain't. Gonna. Keep. Up! I don't have betting profit to back up what the ROI would be for an 8 point difference in our favor of ERA and FIP, but it's probably 3 figures!

Tonight looks like as good a night as any...I waited for the. Best line and money is going the wrong way. Carrasco flat out hasn't been bad and it's amazing it's worked out so in our favor!

I would probably play this much bigger but gonna post it as a 4% play for purposes of solidarity!

Game: (927) Pittsburgh Pirates at (928) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: Apr 17 2019 6:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Detroit Tigers +100

View Analysis

Quick and not so wordy

Turnbull ERA = 4.80

Turnbull FIP = 3.54

Turnbull BABIP= .400



This system is 3-0 already this week

[dawggy]

TEDDY COVERS

BASKETBALL PLAYS

Game: (541) Utah Jazz at (542) Houston Rockets
Date/Time: Apr 17 2019 9:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Houston Rockets -7 (-108)

View Analysis

3% Take Houston (#542)

Houston’s Game 1 blowout over Utah wasn’t the first time in recent meetings that the Jazz have come unglued facing this Rockets barrage. The Rockets won by 27 in Utah back in February; a blowout by halftime. They took care of the Jazz in five games in the playoffs last year; all four victories coming by double digit margins. Their only loss in that series came in a similar spot – right here in Game 2, off a Game 1 blowout -- a loss that they still remember and one that kept the Rockets from getting the extra rest they needed to hang tough with Golden State in their next series.

I’m not expecting a similar Game 2 letdown this time around, especially considering how well they’ve been playing: 21-4 SU in their last 25 games. Even those four losses come with asterisks: one loss in OT by a single point; another in spread covering fashion by only two points at Golden State; a third coming by a single point on the last day of the regular season. 13 of Houston’s last 15 victories have come by double digit margins; a team that is more than capable of extending leads in the latter stages of the game.

What answers does Utah have? Their point guards are banged up. Leading scorer Donovan Mitchell didn’t dish a single assist on Sunday. Utah’s defense is designed to prevent dribble penetration; Houston’s offense is loaded with perimeter shooters. Rudy Gobert put up stats, but the Jazz were -23 with him on the floor…and that came in a game where his Rockets counterpart, Clint Capela, was dealing with an upper respiratory infection: "It was hard. I would say it was probably my toughest game ... it felt kind of hard to breathe like I'm used to."

James Harden’s quotes stand out to me as well, talking about Utah’s defense against him and the Rockets mentality tonight: "I've seen literally every defense you can possibly see. So it was just a matter of adjusting and continuing to communicate with the guys of what spots they needed to be in…..It's only one game. They're going to make adjustments, we have to make adjustments and play that much harder and smarter. We'll let it sink in and get ready to go." Take the Rockets.

Line Parameter: 3% at -7 or lower, 2% at -7.5 or higher.

BASEBALL PLAYS

Game: (907) San Francisco Giants at (908) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: Apr 17 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: San Francisco Giants +120

View Analysis

3% Take San Francisco (#907)

The Nationals hot bats have cooled off, producing only 12 runs in their last four ballgames; bad news against Jeff Samardzija coming off a gem versus the Rockies. That leaves all the other weaknesses of this Nats roster on full display. Washington’s bullpen ranks dead last in the majors in ERA, suffering eight losses already while notching only one save on the season! That’s bad news with Jeremy Hellickson on the hill; no longer an innings eater at this stage of his career. San Francisco’s bullpen ranks #1 in the majors in ERA and they had Sunday off; a relatively fresh unit to close out the game tonight. And the Giants bats got going yesterday, a team with some positive momentum after winning four times in their last five contests. Live dog here! Take the Giants.

Line Parameter: 3% at +115 or higher, 2% at +114 or lower

Game: (923) Los Angeles Angels at (924) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: Apr 17 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Texas Rangers -123

View Analysis

4% Take Texas (#924)

There’s not much to like about the LA Angels these days. Since taking an early 4-1 lead against the Rangers in the first game of this series, LA has been outscored 17-2. Their bullpen is gassed, without a single out recorded by a starting pitcher in the sixth inning or later in any of their last six ballgames. Fly baller Matt Harvey is a bad fit for this ballpark, and the Rangers smashed him for eight earned runs in four innings less than two weeks ago; coming off another ugly outing against the Brewers. This is a cheap price to lay to back a hot hitting Rangers team -- 36 runs scored while going 4-1 in their last five games. Take the Rangers

Line Parameter: 4% at -139 or lower, 3% at -140 or higher

[Calidreaming]

Budin 50 play on Milwaukee Bucks

[dawggy]

Rob veno

ADD ON

Game: (923) Los Angeles Angels at (924) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: Apr 17 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Texas Rangers -1.5 (+135)

View Analysis EU

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Adam Thompson


TEXAS -135


L.A. ANGELS @ TEXAS | 4/17 | 8:05 PM EDT
1:47 PM
Angels starter Matt Harvey started strong but has since given up 14 runs in his last 8.1 innings. The opposite is true of Lance Lynn, who had a rough opening game but since has tossed a pair of gems. This Angels lineup is hitting only .196 against him in more than 100 at-bats. L.A. averages just 2.7 runs on the road so far on .184 hitting -- nearly four fewer runs than the Rangers average at home.

2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB ML PICKS | +50
16-7 IN LAST 23 TEX ML PICKS | +736


WASHINGTON -135


SAN FRANCISCO @ WASHINGTON | 4/17 | 7:05 PM EDT
1:36 PM
Jeremy Hellickson has just one start so far. That said, he blanked the Phillies over six innings in Philadelphia. Now he throws at home against a Giants team that ranks 29th in hitting and 28th in runs scored. Jeff Samardzija was stellar his last time out, but the outing before that he didn't get out of the fifth inning and has a poor track record facing the Nationals. Look for Washington to bounce back here.

2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB ML PICKS | +50
7-5 IN LAST 12 WAS ML PICKS | +13


PITTSBURGH -116


PITTSBURGH @ DETROIT | 4/17 | 6:40 PM EDT
1:28 PM
Trevor Williams has tossed three quality starts and the Pirates are 3-0 when he gets the ball. Detroit is managing only 2.5 runs per game during its four-game losing streak and they're going with a pitcher that needs run support still looking for his first-career MLB win. Williams and a top-five performing bullpen should hold down Detroit enough.

2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB ML PICKS | +50
6-1 IN LAST 7 DET ML PICKS | +465

2-1 IN LAST 3 PIT ML PICKS | +75

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Oh

UTAH +7


UTAH @ HOUSTON | 4/17 | 9:30 PM EDT
12:06 PM
The Jazz fell behind hard, made a rally then ran out of gas and the Rockets pounded them by 32 in Game 1. In the regular season, Utah lost by only five and won by 11 in its two trips to Houston. The Rockets still win in a major of my simulations, but by an average of just four points. Take the points with Utah.

90-70 IN LAST 160 NBA PICKS | +1353
24-15 IN LAST 39 HOU ATS PICKS | +774


DETROIT +15.5


DETROIT @ MILWAUKEE | 4/17 | 8:00 PM EDT
12:01 PM
The Bucks absolutely ran roughshod over the Pistons in Game 1. Blake Griffin is expected to return for Detroit for Game 2, and while my simulations aren't calling for an upset win, they are expecting a much-more competitive game. This is way too many points. Take them.

90-70 IN LAST 160 NBA PICKS | +1353
11-8 IN LAST 19 DET ATS PICKS | +245


INDIANA +7.5


INDIANA @ BOSTON | 4/17 | 7:00 PM EDT
11:59 AM
Teams that lose Game 1's have bounced back and played better in Game 2 so far, and I expect that as well with the Pacers. Indiana lost by 10 (and failed to cover) in Game 1 at Boston, but they couldn't fully recover from a horrid third quarter. Without a huge 12-minute letdown, Game 2 should be much closer. My simulations project a Pacers cover.

90-70 IN LAST 160 NBA PICKS | +1353
6-2 IN LAST 8 IND ATS PICKS | +378

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Miller locks

6:35 pm est mlb
boston red sox vs. New york yankees

pick: Over 9 (-115)

risk: 11 units

6:40 pm est mlb
pittsburgh pirates vs. Detroit tigers

pick: Pittsburgh pirates (-111)

risk: 11 units

7:10 pm est mlb
baltimore orioles vs. Tampa bay rays

pick: Tampa bay rays -1.5 (-120)

risk: 11 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JR ODONNELL

3*
Houston / Utah over 214

3*
Calgary +100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB(Bob Balfe)
8:05 PM EST
Rotation #923-924
Rangers -125 over Angels
Lynn/Harvey
Matt Harvey has the worst ERA in baseball and just has not been the guy he once was a few years ago.* Texas is not a team a struggling pitcher wants to face with so much fire power up and down the line up.** Last night the Rangers got a big win as they shut down the Angels and I expect the same thing tonight.* Los Angeles is not a good road team as their bats really have struggled so far this year.* Harvey would have to be perfect.* I can’t see that happening with the way he has pitched this year.**Take the Rangers.