Service Plays Friday 4/19/19

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-19-2019, 08:43 AM

Ben Burns

3* Oklahoma -6.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-19-2019, 08:43 AM

Spartan

3* St.louis -138

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-19-2019, 08:44 AM

JR ODONNELL

3* RUN -LINE GOY

St.louis -1.5(+130)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-19-2019, 08:44 AM

Andre Gomes

2* Orlando / Toronto over 210

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-19-2019, 08:44 AM

Stephen Nover

1* Indiana -3

3* San Francisco -100

2* Toronto -4.5

**dawggy** · 04-19-2019, 11:12 AM

TONY FINN

TONY

E FINN FRI AL CENTRAL DOG ~ WEEK (6-1)

Game: (919) Chicago White Sox at (920) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: Apr 19 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Chicago White Sox -102

View Analysis

PLAY: Chicago White Sox -102 (good to -120)
3% game rating
LIST PITCHERS Rodon and Zimmerman

919 Chicago White Sox at 920 Detroit Tigers

Rodon earned his 2nd win of the season Sunday holding the Yankees to 2 runs on 3 hits over 6 innings, while striking out 5. Entering play Sunday despite a high walk rate of 3.94 BB/9 his underlying peripherals are suggesting continued success.

Rodoan is punching out batters at a 32.9% clip while also generating a slightly higher then normal ground ball rate(45%) and holding batters to a .200 batting average against.

A key to his 2019 success could be his continued effective of his over-the-top improved slider – a pitch he has thrown 43% of the time in 2019 with a ridiculously effective.121 batting average against.

Tigers starter Zimmermann hasn't been the same pitcher since he finished in the Cy Young Top-5 back in 2015. The righty, along with the Tigers overall, were a success early this year (month). Zimmerman surrendered just one run in 13.2 innings with a 10:1 K:BB in his first two starts.

The offensively challenged Detroit offense hasn't assisted Zimm in earning a win , Zimmermann is off a turn in which he allwed five runs (four earned) over 4.1 innings Tuesday against --- offensively and injury riddled Cleveland --- allowing a lead off home run to who? Leonys Martin.

Zimmermann allowed three home runs to see his ERA rise to 2.50. Zimmermann doesn't miss enough bats and while his command has been better across his first four starts than last year the veteran's flyball tendencies are an issue even at pitcher-freindly Comerico. .

Zimmermann has seen his HR/9 jump from 0.59 in 2014 to 1.92 last year.

New Tiger Stadium finds a 20 mph wind blowing to the right field corner --- and pit Zimmerman's flyball plight against Rodon's ground balls and the most probable winner in this contest is easily Rodon and the Pale Hose.

The Tigers are slashing.213/.261/.310/.571 across the last week of games and versus lefties this season ---- a inept .234/.308/.298/.606 with zero.... yes count em... zero home runs versus left-handed pitching this season after 600 at bats.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX -102
BIG TICKET 5% NL GAME ~ MONTH (4-0)
Game: (907) Los Angeles Dodgers at (908) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: Apr 19 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -108

View Analysis

PLAY: Los Angeles Dodgers -108 (good to -135)
5% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Stripling and Chacin

(907) Los Angeles Dodgers at (908) Milwaukee Brewers

Jump the back of Dodgers young right-hander Ross Stripling before he has used his nine-lives. And I mean "nine-lives" in a positive overtone if I was in fact speaking rather than typing... Stripling will be limited this year, in total innings pitched, as will all of the Dodgers starters... a group that attracts injuries like crap draws flies.

Stripling has dominated an undisciplined Milwaukee lineup that will only be successful as far as Yolich and the power bats in the order can take them. Stripling has already beat up on the Crew once this season tossing 8 innings of work allowing one earned run on four hits... one walk... and a trio of strikeouts... Stripling stuff has been so over-the-top since the middle of last year that when a pitcher only strikes out three Milwaukee bats in over 20 plate appearances the team is a .75 percent winner.... Not against Stripling and other pitchers with a hard contact percentage in the area of 30 percent... e.g. Stripling.

Stripling has taken the hill for four starts -- 2.92 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 22% K, 7% BB, and 52% GB. The skills approaching elite in each and every category.... and regardless of the return of the injured.. Rich Hill and Hyun.. Stripling is the teams next Kershaw.. albeit from the right-side of the mound. (4.4 BB% improving to the level of elite in K's 24.3 K% and lacking only a sub.3.00 FIP to be that elite right-hander among the Dodgers deep pitching staff (FIP (3.42) and xFIP (2.99) numbers across 122.0 innings.

How serious can those of us MLB pundits who respect and understand the need for a stopper in the rotation can we look upon Milwaukee as being who they were a season ago and where they stood in September of 2018?

It is barely mid April but this Brewers team isn't going to win a division nor a series in the postseason with Chacin as their No. 1. No way... no fking how.

Let's quickly flash back to June of last year, a bit short of a year... Chacin allowed 8 ER’s on 9 hits and 5 BB’s in 4.1 IP while striking out 5 versus a middling Cardinals offense. Chacin had take advantage of a soft schedule and posted surface numbers of (2.33 ERA across 54 IP and allowing 1 ER or less in 6 of his 9 starts) --- but surface numbers are as untrustworthy as a degenerate gambler. Chacin had underlying peripherals at that time that had him with a 4.35 xFIP -- Chacin went forward to see his ERA jump from 3.18 to 3.82 one start.

The Brewers, who consider themselves postseason worthy? With a No. 1 starter that sports the following --- 6.95 K/9 and 3.91 BB/9 resulting in a 4.76 xFIP, so don’t expect his ERA to stop rising. There’s really no reason to trust or back Chacin unless the matchup is in September against a franchises September call-ups... ESPECIALLY at a minus-money price point or even a pickem.

Chacin was abused once by the power bats of the Dodgers....in a 7-1 loss in which Chacín made it through only 2 1/3 innings, allowing six hits, three walks and six runs. In his previous regular-season start here on Aug. 2 of last season, Chacín was rocked for nine runs in 4 1/3 innings, including three home runs, in a 21-5 rout.... against yes... Los Angeles.

The Dodgers lead the National League in hard contact versus a right-handed starters slider... and if a pitchers best pitch is a slider and they are pushing off the rubber against the Dodgers then it is going to be tough sledding.

And Chacin's best pitch.. and one that he has to be getting swings and misses outside of the zone against right-handed hitters... isn't working.. it is time for the Fat Lady to sing.

This Brewers bunch will win games with their bats... not their gloves nor their arms..... And when Chacin was named the Opening Day starter for the Brewers anyone with half an understanding of today's MLB knew the team did nothing in the offseason to upgrade a less than average big league staff.

Chacin won't miss enough of the hard contact swinging bats of the Dodgers (20% K) and if you are going to depend on batted ball luck when investing in MLB betting boards it will result in a negative on most nights. Do not support Chacin in most situations this year.. especially against a Cy Young candidate that is backed by power bats that LA sports. Chacin's 250 BABIP which is well below his career .279 BABIP. His hard-hit rate also rose to 37 percent a year ago...

Expecting Chacin to lead a postseason staff is fools gold... and throwing good money after bad.... .

LA DODGERS -108
FINN FRI SENIOR CIRCUIT DOG EAT DOG (6-1)
Game: (909) New York Mets at (910) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: Apr 19 2019 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Greek
Play Rating: 3%
Play: New York Mets +134

View Analysis

PLAY: New York Mets +130 (good to +110)
3% game rating
LIST PITCHERS Vargas and Wainwright
(909) New York Mets at (910) St. Louis Cardinals
Quickly in the National League on Friday night two pitchers that are nothing short of fifth starters, if that, on an average Major League team, top to bottom. The Mets are sticking with Vargas in their rotation because the front office is waiting on what this team will be by mid May or early June. At that time you will seee the fighting division rival Philly for the one-year rights to cabable and unsigned Dallas K.

Vargas is streaky and a streaming underdog when squaring off against the soft -- and there isn't too many lineups in baseball as undisciplined at the plate than the current Redbirds.

The Cardinals are hitting ..185 versus southpaws this season. Their OBP is stupid low against lefties,, at .288 .an all of this as a lineup that has shown zero power against left-handed starters.... just a .370 SLG.

The lone reason for Wainwright being a favorite in this contest is his reputation and... plain and simple... Vargas' surface numbers. Wainwright can't miss enough bats this point in his career and will continue to walk as many batters as he strike's out. He doesn't trust his stuff. He, like Vargas, is a matchup consideration, or a streaming "play on" when the sitaution calls for it.

Wainwright struggled in his season debut (4 IP, 4 ER, 4 hits, 4 BB, 3 Ks -- and not the base on balls. -- again he doesn't miss enough bats and doesn't trust his own stuff... not at nearly 100 years of age.

The walks continue a trend -- that has saw his walk rate balloon but about half a walk per 9 each of the past 4 seasons (1.3 BB/9 in 2015 all the way up to 4.0 BB/9 last year).

Wainwright's scuffled this season have come against bottom-feeding offenses... e.g. Pirates.

He is always pitching from behind and would not be in any team's starting rotation had he not improved the SwgStr% of his curveball.

At 37 years old it is difficult to imagine Wainwright doing anything more than walking as many as he punches out along with a combvination of losing much needed velocity and command on his very hittable two and four seamers...

The bottom line truth in this NL event is that the wrong team is favored...

Trust the Mets to capture more hits on offense, more strikeouts from their starter, enjoy an overwhelmingly better bullpen and an offense that is capable of the bloop and a bomb more than the other... that team and winner in Busch tonight is New York

NEW YORK METS +130
FINN FRI AL WEST TOP TOTAL (22-13)
Game: (925) Seattle Mariners at (926) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: Apr 19 2019 10:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 9.0 (-110)

View Analysis

PLAY: Under the Total of 9 runs (good to 8.5)
3% game rating
LIST PITCHERS Gonzales and Pena

(925) Seattle Mariners at (926) Los Angeles Angels

Marco Gonzales was the Mariners American Opening Day starter for the Mariners -- in reality his second start of the year -- as he pitched the opener in Japan. Marco G tossed 6 inning and gave up 3 ER on 7 H (2 HR), 1 BB, and 4 K.

Gonzo worked 166.2 inning a season ago owning a 4.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. The Seattle southpaw doesn't walk batters (5% BB) without elite swing and miss stuff (21% K). Gonzales mixes the speed of his arsenal like a savvy veteran. He has four pitches -- and uses each one a minimum of 20%+ of the time.

What Gonzo brings to the table, the mound mind you, is what you see -- and he will be who he is for the rest of his career. A strike thrower that is a plus-money investment when facing a lineup like the Halos -- That LA line, versus left-handed pitching -- is slashing a ridiculously and porous .162 /.271/.260/.531 --- yes the Halos are hitting .162 versus lefties this season with a team on base percentage that would get a minor leaguer sent back to college.

Felix Peña is starting because Andrew Heaney is on the injured list -- Pena will have his share of fifteen minutes this season. He is off a start in which he retired the first eight batters he faced -- including three by strikeout -- until running into trouble with two outs in the third. That trouble I mention were seeing eye singles.... back-to-back singles to Josh Phegley and Robbie Grossman -- before hitting Matt Chapman to load the bases. Stephen Piscotty made him pay with one of the only balls with an exit velocity of 90-plus mph in the start... a hard hit single up the middle to bring home the game’s first two runs.

Pena had a sick-good spring in the hitter friendly venues of the Cactus League. Pena struck out 25 in 14 2/3 innings-- his improved change up makes him dangerous when he is ahead in the count and commanding his fastball. changeup. It is essential that when backing Pena it is against a lineup that won't and can't take advantage of his flyball tendencies and command issues....Pena is in his prime and his 4.06 xFIP and 4.09 SIERA are what you get with the veteran.

Again, push Pena to the mound against a team that is struggling, swinging at pitches outside the zone... e.g. Seattle and you have a plus-money monger in your hip pocket. Pena's K/9 is solid at 8.78 along with an Okay 3.28 BB/9.

The Mariners have comeback to earth after a stretch in which they won seemingly everyday for a two week stretch... but did so against pedestrian offenses. Seattle is hitting .201 over the last seven days with an OBP of .278 while slugging .363. Now this is a batting order that Pena can succeed against.

UNDER THE TOTAL OF 9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-19-2019, 12:10 PM

Tony George

3 Units - #901 Arizona / #902 Chicago Cubs (Over 7) *2:20 EST
Note - Afternoon Game
Hendricks for Chicago (starter) has given up 24 hits in 13 innings (5.40 ERA). Both teams are red hot rolling into this game, and I think the runs will come here. Cannot figure this total line out as I have it at 9.5 on power ratings. Zona scoring 5.7 runs per game on the road and allowing 6.3. The Cubs are scoring over 6 runs per game this year and 4.8 at home. Both teams hitting well their last 5 games with decent numbers and if we any left handed relief pitchers here, both teams can light up southpaws big time.

3 Units - Take #910 Cardinals (-155) over NY Mets *8:15 EST
Two veteran pitchers collide near The Arch in St. Louis and only one still has something left in the tank. Adam Wainwright is no longer dominant, but he's still can mow down opposing batters and in his three starts this season, just one would be deemed below average. Jason Vargas is only an innings-eater at this point of his career and he's had a hard time with that with an ERA over 10. New York has lost four of five as the offense is starting to cool and the Cardinals are 6-0 vs. an NL team with an on-base percentage of .340 or better this season. Make it 7-0. Slightly over my max of -150 but worth the stretch here.

3 Units - Take #919 White Sox (-105) over Detroit *7:10 EST
Last week I had a winner for you going against Detroit's Jordan Zimmermann and look for that to happen again tonight. Zimmermann makes too much money to be released or traded (think Matt Cain of the Giants) and except for a series of good starts here and there when he commands his sinker, he has better than a 60 percent chance to lose any start. The Tigers beat the White Sox 9-7 yesterday and that outcome usually means bad news for Detroit. Here is the deal, the Tigers are 10-24 after scoring nine runs or more and 3-15 after a game with a combined score of 15 runs or more. With the White Sox and their starter, Carlos Rodon, 7-1 vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs a game, take the Pale Hose.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-19-2019, 12:10 PM

PICKS2PLAY

NBA 9:35 pm Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5 for 1 units

MLB 7:05 pm Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees New York Yankees -165 for 1 units
ACTION

MLB 10:07 pm Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels -120 for 1 units

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-19-2019, 12:10 PM

11th: MLB, 8u: 902 CUB-.5+100. CUB-1.5+140. CUB U 4 1st 5. CUB U 7.5g. 916 BAL+160 1st 5. BAL+165g. 917 KC+150 1st 5. KC+155g.

11th: MLB, 8u: 906 MIA+100 1st 5. MIA-105g. 920 DET-.5+140 DET-1.5+180. 924 TEX+195 1st 5. TEX+190g. 909 NYM+139 1st 5. NYM+144g. NYM O 4.5 and O 9.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-19-2019, 12:11 PM

Sportsvipvegas 4/19

Arizona +164
miami +101
dodgers -106
minny -2.5 (+130)
houston -2.5 (+105)
colorado -1.5 (+130)
nyy -1.5 (+105)
detroit -1 (+130)
angels -1 (+124)
oakland -1 (+107)
cleveland -1 (+112)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-19-2019, 12:11 PM

From Northcoast group of handicappers:

------------------------------------
Master Sports

MLB
4* #923/924 Houston/Texas OVER 9.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-19-2019, 12:11 PM

Stats Analytics Sports
MLB 55-42 (57%) + 13.77 Units

2* Plays
Giants/Pirates Over 7.5
Royals/Yankees Over 8.5
Astros/Rangers Over 9.5
Mets/Cardinals Over 9

1* Brewers +1.5 runs
1* Orioles +175

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-19-2019, 12:11 PM

Kyle Markus (VegasInsider)

NBA
Indiana Pacers -140 (Moneyline)
Pacers/Celtics Over 205

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-19-2019, 12:12 PM

Tim Wilkinson (VegasInsider)

NBA
Portland Trailblazers +7.5
Trailblazers/Thunder Under 222

Service Plays Friday 4/19/19

Service Plays Friday 4/19/19

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