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2 Units - Take #970 Oakland (-145 ) over Texas *10 EST
Texas' Mike Minor is off a complete game shutout and pitchers today do not bounce back from those these days, with their teams losing about 60% of the time. Texas off a huge emotional in state series against Houston and yet while scoring 20 runs in 2 games and looking good they are a dog here. Why is that? Oddmakers know to fade Minor here and begging you to take Texas.
Also, going back to 2013, I could not find where Minor has pitched 23 innings in three consecutive starts and could well be due for letdown. Lastly, A's swept at home by Jays and they are 15-4 at home against Texas. Grimmie the A's at home with Chris Bassitt on the hill making his first start this year (3.02 ERA last year)
3 Units - Take #951 D-Backs (+130) over Pittsburgh *7 EST
Pittsburgh's Joe Musgrove has been super with 0.81 ERA and WHIP of 0.76, but there is nothing in his career that indicates this is a new norm with a 4.08 ERA. Musgrove faced Arizona twice last year and lost both times and came away with a 6.08 ERA. While Zack Godley is hardly a great pitcher for the D-Backs, he will be facing a Pirates lineup that scored 12 runs and had 21 hits in their last four games, which is even lower than the 3.6 RPG on the season. In the last two years, Godley and Snakes are 10-2 as a road underdog of +100 to +150, giving up a good value.
TEXAS @ OAKLAND | 4/22 | 10:07 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 9:21 PM
The A's are undervalued at home against Mike Minor. This Oakland team is sneaky good against left-handed pitching with a .353 team wOBA against southpaws and a BABIP of just .269 which is over .100 lower than teams with similar wOBA numbers. I have the A's winning 62 percent of simulations making them a strong value at -123.
11-6 IN LAST 17 MLB PICKS | +499
6-3 IN LAST 9 TEX ML PICKS | +313
MILWAUKEE @ DETROIT | 4/22 | 8:00 PM EDT
12:30 PM
This series looked like a laugher right from the start and it has been, with the Bucks winning all three games by at least 16 points. Even with Blake Griffin back for Game 3, the Pistons couldn’t keep things close. The Bucks could earn important extended time off before the second round with a win Monday, so look for them to keep their foot on the gas and end up covering once again.
65-52-3 IN LAST 120 NBA ATS PICKS | +747
4-0 IN LAST 4 MIL ATS PICKS | +400
CHI. WHITE SOX @ BALTIMORE | 4/22 | 7:05 PM EDT
12:11 PM
This wrong team is favored here Monday night. The White Sox are now looking to Manny Banuelos who has proven he can’t be a successful starter in the MLB. After a short stint pitching in 2015 for the Atlanta Braves, he finished 1-4 with a five plus ERA. I look for plenty of signs of rust for Banuelos who hasn’t pitched a start in over four years. I am not head over heals for Orioles pitcher David Hess, but I do believe since Chris Davis has woken up, the Orioles shouldn’t be overlooked in this matchup. I like them to roll at home and the underdogs here.
15-4 IN LAST 19 MLB ML PICKS | +1044
6-1 IN LAST 7 CHW ML PICKS | +584
3-0 IN LAST 3 BAL ML PICKS | +305
HOUSTON -175
MINNESOTA @ HOUSTON | 4/22 | 8:10 PM EDT
12:10 PM
Brad Peacock has emerged as one of the more dominant pitchers in the league. Looking for his fourth straight win, Peacock has the upper edge in this matchup. Houston bats have come alive and should be well prepped to pitch against Odorizzi who they beat up in the last matchup. Houston’s home record shouldn’t be overlooked as they enter game 21 undefeated at home. Look for Houston to win their fifth straight at home against the Twins.
15-4 IN LAST 19 MLB ML PICKS | +1044
3-0 IN LAST 3 MIN ML PICKS | +300
OAKLAND -149
TEXAS @ OAKLAND | 4/22 | 10:07 PM EDT
12:09 PM
There a few reasons why I like the Athletics in this matchup. Recency bias is a main reason why the public is high on the Rangers. The Athletics are very undervalued after getting swept at home by the sub-.500 Blue Jays. Chris Bassitt is on a four-game win streak and has seemed to find his groove in this latter part of his MLB career. He also is significantly better at home (3.07 ERA) comparing to a 4.71 ERA on the road. The Athletics should break their slump Monday night.
15-4 IN LAST 19 MLB ML PICKS | +1044
3-2 IN LAST 5 TEX ML PICKS | +145
N.Y. YANKEES @ L.A. ANGELS | 4/22 | 10:07 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:46 PM
The Angels are a respectable .286 hitting team at home. But the Yankees are hitting .286 on the road and averaging about a run more than L.A. does at home. While the Angels can hit the ball, they whiff against lefties, just .206 so far as they prep for J.A. Happ. Happ has been very mediocre this year, but he's coming off his best start and last year was much better on the road. He also mowed down the Angels in his one start against them. L.A. starter Matt Harvey hasn't gone longer than 4.1 innings his last three starts. The Yankees have been worked over by injury but still have the personnel to get to Harvey.
5-2 IN LAST 7 MLB ML PICKS | +189
2-1 IN LAST 3 LAA ML PICKS | +59
MINNESOTA +160
MINNESOTA @ HOUSTON | 4/22 | 8:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:38 PM
No team hits better at home than the Astros, who are a ridiculous .335 and averaging 6.0 runs per game there. But the Twins are hitting .298 on the road and averaging 6.9 runs away from home. They're also the top-ranked team against right-handed pitchers, and Monday face Brad Peacock, who was a reliever last year and was sent back to the pen after a rough outing. He's back in the rotation for now. Meanwhile, Minnesota's Jake Orodizzi is coming off his best start and this Astros lineup is just .237 against him all-time.
5-2 IN LAST 7 MLB ML PICKS | +189
16-5 IN LAST 21 HOU ML PICKS | +951
7-2 IN LAST 9 MIN ML PICKS | +465
PITTSBURGH -141
ARIZONA @ PITTSBURGH | 4/22 | 7:05 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:20 PM
Arizona has won when it outscores opponents, but that's going to be tough against Joe Musgrove, who's allowed two earned runs in 22.1 innings. The D'backs have great offensive stats on the year but are averaging only 3.0 runs per game in the last five, so they're coming back to earth. D'backs starter Zack Godley has been on his game twice, and off twice. But he's been far worse on the road in two starts, restarting a 2018 trend.
5-2 IN LAST 7 MLB ML PICKS | +189
5-1 IN LAST 6 ARI ML PICKS | +465
SAN ANTONIO @ DENVER | 4/23 | 9:30 PM EDT
2:23 AM
The Spurs have played tremendous ball in Denver this series, and I like them to bounce back from their Game 4 dud with a very competitive effort if not an outright win here. Derrick White and Rudy Gay will play better, and coach Gregg Popovich will make the needed adjustments. Grab the points.
94-70-1 IN LAST 165 NBA ATS PICKS | +1695
31-18-3 IN LAST 52 DEN ATS PICKS | +1124
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