Wednesday 4-24-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Long Sheet

Wednesday, April 24

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CAROLINA (49-31-0-8, 106 pts.) at WASHINGTON (51-29-0-8, 110 pts.) - 4/24/2019, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 26-36 ATS (-14.5 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 16-47 ATS (+78.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 117-78 ATS (+199.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 47-27 ATS (+8.4 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 47-26 ATS (+9.6 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 46-29 ATS (+7.9 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 64-45 ATS (+5.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 40-29 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 33-17 ATS (+10.4 Units) second half of the season this season.
CAROLINA is 22-11 ATS (+7.4 Units) after a division game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 12-6 (+4.4 Units) against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 12-6-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
10 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+1.6 Units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Wednesday, April 24

Trend Report

Carolina Hurricanes
Carolina is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games
Carolina is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Carolina is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Washington
Carolina is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Washington
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington Capitals
Washington is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Carolina
Washington is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Carolina
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Dunkel

Wednesday, April 24


Carolina @ Washington

Game 23-24
April 24, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
12.290
Washington
10.713
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 1 1/2
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-155
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+135); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL Stanley Cup playoffs best bets and prop predictions: Home-ice advantage in Game 7
Monty Andrews

It's hard to pick against the Capitals to win this game given how the series has gone; the home side has outscored the opposition by an absurd 26-8 margin.

And then there was one – as in, one unclaimed second-round spot remaining in the Stanley Cup playoffs. The Carolina Hurricanes and Washington Capitals tangle Wednesday night to decide which team will face the New York Islanders in an Eastern Conference semifinal series. And with this being the only game in town, there should be plenty of betting action on it. Here are your top trends and tips as the defending Stanley Cup champs look to take care of business at home:

CAROLINA HURRICANES AT WASHINGTON CAPITALS

Moneyline Odds: Carolina +140/Washington -160
Over/Under: 5.5 goals
Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET, Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.

The home team has won all six games in this series, mostly thanks to hot starts. The hosts are outscoring the visitors by a 9-3 margin in the best-of-seven, with Game 6 marking the only time that the home side didn't carry a lead into the second period. And let's not ignore Washington's 87 first-period goals during the regular season (fourth-most in the league) and +21 goal differential (second-best). We like the Capitals -0.5 on the first-period line (+160).

In terms of player prop recommendations, we have a few – and you can probably guess which player tops the list. Alex Ovechkin is no stranger to the spotlight; he led the way with 15 goals during last year's Stanley Cup title run, and has four in six games against the Hurricanes this series – and more significantly, he has goals in four different games. Ovechkin is the best goal-scorer in the league, and even at just +115 to score anytime in Game 7, he's worth a shot.

It's hard to pick against the Capitals to win this game given how the series has gone; the home side has outscored the opposition by an absurd 26-8 margin, with four contests decided by multiple goals. And while we don't necessarily think this will be a one-sided affair, it is worth considering that the home team has won eight of the last nine head-to-head meetings overall, with six of those outcomes decided by more than one goal. Taking the Capitals -1.5 is a decent play here at +185.

As for the total, while the teams are each averaging 2.83 goals per game in the series, they've done so despite ranking near the bottom in shots per game; the Hurricanes are 10th among playoff teams at 32, while the Capitals rank dead last at 25.5. Goaltending has been the difference so far – Washington's has been okay, while Carolina's has been downright dreadful. We expect more scoring chances in Game 7, leading us to favor the O5.5 option (+100).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Wednesday, April 24


Kansas City @ Tampa Bay

Game 963-964
April 24, 2019 @ 1:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
(Junis) 13.593
Tampa Bay
(Snell) 15.051
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
N/A

Miami @ Cleveland

Game 975-976
April 24, 2019 @ 1:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
(Alcntara) 14.964
Cleveland
(Rdriguez) 13.892
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
N/A

Milwaukee @ St. Louis

Game 951-952
April 24, 2019 @ 1:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
(Chacin) 16.966
St. Louis
(Wnwrght) 15.298
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Milwaukee
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
-135
9
Dunkel Pick:
Milwaukee
(+115); Under

Washington @ Colorado

Game 953-954
April 24, 2019 @ 3:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
(Sanchez) 16.539
Colorado
(Marquez) 15.161
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1 1/2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado
-145
10 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+125); Over

Texas @ Oakland

Game 965-966
April 24, 2019 @ 3:37 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas
(Dowdy) 15.103
Oakland
(Brooks) 16.172
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
-140
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-140); Under

Seattle @ San Diego

Game 977-978
April 24, 2019 @ 3:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
(Hernandez) 15.541
San Diego
(Paddack) 14.425
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
-175
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+155); Under

San Francisco @ Toronto

Game 979-980
April 24, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
(Pmeranz) 16.336
Toronto
(Buchholz) 15.441
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
-115
9
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(-115); Under

Atlanta @ Cincinnati

Game 955-956
April 24, 2019 @ 6:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Soroka) 16.895
Cincinnati
(Roark) 15.316
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
-125
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-125); Under

Arizona @ Pittsburgh

Game 957-958
April 24, 2019 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
(Kelly) 15.097
Pittsburgh
(Lyles) 17.317
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
-125
8
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-125); Over

Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore

Game 967-968
April 24, 2019 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago White Sox
(Santana) 15.366
Baltimore
(Means) 14.145
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago White Sox
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
-120
10
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago White Sox
(+100); Under

Philadelphia @ NY Mets

Game 959-960
April 24, 2019 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
(Velasquez) 13.203
NY Mets
(Vargas) 15.590
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Mets
by 2 1/2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
-115
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-105); Over

Detroit @ Boston

Game 969-970
April 24, 2019 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
(Ross) 14.952
Boston
(Rdriguez) 13.506
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 1 1/2
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
-220
9 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+190); Over

LA Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs

Game 961-962
April 24, 2019 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(Buehler) 15.369
Chicago Cubs
(Hamels) 16.651
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 1 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-115
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(-105); N/A

Minnesota @ Houston

Game 971-972
April 24, 2019 @ 8:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
(Stewart) 15.776
Houston
(Verlnder) 16.973
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
N/A

NY Yankees @ LA Angels

Game 973-974
April 24, 2019 @ 10:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Sabathia) 14.764
LA Angels
(Pena) 15.783
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Angels
by 1
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Angels
-115
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Angels
(-115); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tampa Bay Rays (-1½) -125
Royals are (1-10) in Junis' last 11 starts with 4 days of rest
Rays are (15-3) in Snell's last 18 starts when opponent scores 2 runs or less in previous game

Cleveland Indians -165
Marlins are (1-7) in their last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in previous game
Marlins are (2-6) in Alcantara's last 8 starts

Toronto Blue Jays +111
Giants are (3-12) in their last 15 after allowing 5 runs or more in previous game
Giants are (1-11) in their last 12 after scoring 5 runs or more in previous game

Pittsburgh Pirates -116
Pirates are (8-1) in their last 9 when opponent allows 2 runs or less in previous game
Diamondbacks are (1-6) in their last 7 during game 3 of a series

Boston Red Sox (-1½) -115
Red Sox are (11-1) in Rodriguez's last 12 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in previous game
Red Sox are (14-2) in Rodriguez's last 16 starts during game 3 of a series

Chicago Cubs +109
Dodgers are (3-8) in their last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter
Cubs are (35-17) in their last 52 home games vs. a right-handed starter

Houston Astros (-1½) -135
Astros are (55-22) in their last 77 home games vs. a right-handed starter
Astros are (7-1) in Verlander's last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cincy UNDER home 21-4-1

Tampa RL home day 24-7

Mets OVER 16-4-2

Marquez UNDER 14-3-2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, April 24

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MILWAUKEE (13 - 12) at ST LOUIS (14 - 9) - 1:15 PM
JHOULYS CHACIN (R) vs. ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 510-360 (+65.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
WAINWRIGHT is 190-111 (+42.3 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. (Team's Record)
MILWAUKEE is 115-83 (+27.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 52-45 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 84-58 (+22.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 49-32 (+19.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 55-44 (+15.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
CHACIN is 27-16 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHACIN is 17-9 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHACIN is 22-15 (+11.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHACIN is 16-8 (+11.8 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHACIN is 25-13 (+15.9 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHACIN is 9-2 (+9.3 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)


Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 5-4 (+0.7 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.9 Units)



JHOULYS CHACIN vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
CHACIN is 3-7 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 5.34 and a WHIP of 1.441.
His team's record is 4-7 (-3.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-3. (+3.7 units)



ADAM WAINWRIGHT vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
WAINWRIGHT is 15-9 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 2.41 and a WHIP of 1.017.
His team's record is 20-11 (+3.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 15-14. (+0.8 units)




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WASHINGTON (11 - 11) at COLORADO (10 - 14) - 3:10 PM
ANIBAL SANCHEZ (R) vs. GERMAN MARQUEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 93-91 (-29.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 65-65 (-27.6 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 44-49 (-25.0 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 40-36 (-13.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
SANCHEZ is 63-69 (-22.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)
COLORADO is 102-89 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 16-9 (+13.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 1-1 (+0.0 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)



ANIBAL SANCHEZ vs. COLORADO since 1997
SANCHEZ is 4-1 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 2.28 and a WHIP of 0.993.
His team's record is 5-2 (+3.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-4. (-1.3 units)



GERMAN MARQUEZ vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
MARQUEZ is 1-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 8.18 and a WHIP of 1.364.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)




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ATLANTA (11 - 11) at CINCINNATI (9 - 13) - 6:40 PM
MIKE SOROKA (R) vs. TANNER ROARK (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 102-85 (+16.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 51-41 (+17.1 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 35-26 (+13.6 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 77-55 (+23.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 15-32 (-15.0 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 422-449 (-97.5 Units) against the money line in home games after a win since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 1-0 (+1.1 Units) against ATLANTA this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.1 Units)



MIKE SOROKA vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
No recent starts.



TANNER ROARK vs. ATLANTA since 1997
ROARK is 8-4 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 2.99 and a WHIP of 1.128.
His team's record is 11-5 (+4.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-10. (-6.0 units)




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ARIZONA (13 - 11) at PITTSBURGH (12 - 9) - 7:05 PM
MERRILL KELLY (R) vs. JORDAN LYLES (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 667-591 (+67.0 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997.
ARIZONA is 30-15 (+19.1 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 7-1 (+8.1 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
ARIZONA is 7-1 (+8.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LYLES is 13-41 (-21.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997. (Team's Record)


Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-0 (+2.3 Units) against PITTSBURGH this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)



MERRILL KELLY vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
No recent starts.



JORDAN LYLES vs. ARIZONA since 1997
LYLES is 2-4 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 6.80 and a WHIP of 1.762.
His team's record is 2-7 (-4.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-8. (-8.1 units)




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PHILADELPHIA (12 - 11) at NY METS (13 - 10) - 7:10 PM
VINCENT VELASQUEZ (R) vs. JASON VARGAS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 23-46 (-23.1 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 35-57 (-22.3 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 5-19 (-13.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Wednesday over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 43-49 (-15.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 39-73 (-25.3 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
VARGAS is 98-85 (+26.6 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
PHILADELPHIA is 401-461 (+40.2 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
NY METS are 41-47 (-16.2 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 382-396 (-119.0 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.
NY METS are 34-43 (-21.4 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 3 seasons.
NY METS are 60-100 (-35.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
NY METS is 3-2 (+1.1 Units) against PHILADELPHIA this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.8 Units)



VINCENT VELASQUEZ vs. NY METS since 1997
VELASQUEZ is 1-4 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 4.58 and a WHIP of 1.313.
His team's record is 2-6 (-3.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-5. (-3.1 units)



JASON VARGAS vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
VARGAS is 2-0 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 2.76 and a WHIP of 1.164.
His team's record is 3-0 (+4.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+0.9 units)




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LA DODGERS (15 - 10) at CHICAGO CUBS (11 - 10) - 8:05 PM
WALKER BUEHLER (R) vs. COLE HAMELS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 115-89 (-23.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 173-194 (-69.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday since 1997.
LA DODGERS are 79-69 (-25.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 81-68 (-30.4 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1801-1842 (-269.7 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 963-858 (-157.0 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1331-1373 (-210.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 108-95 (-27.7 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO CUBS is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)



WALKER BUEHLER vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
No recent starts.



COLE HAMELS vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
HAMELS is 6-2 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 2.39 and a WHIP of 1.062.
His team's record is 8-5 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-6. (-1.1 units)




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KANSAS CITY (7 - 17) at TAMPA BAY (16 - 8) - 1:10 PM
JAKE JUNIS (R) vs. BLAKE SNELL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 65-121 (-32.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 12-35 (-21.1 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 2-14 (-11.9 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
KANSAS CITY is 14-42 (-21.1 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 20-66 (-29.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 106-80 (+29.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 23-9 (+17.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 60-36 (+23.2 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 19-6 (+15.8 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 43-31 (+16.2 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 75-58 (+17.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 66-37 (+29.2 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
SNELL is 24-11 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SNELL is 14-4 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)


Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.0 Units)



JAKE JUNIS vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
JUNIS is 1-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 2.38 and a WHIP of 1.058.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)



BLAKE SNELL vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
SNELL is 1-1 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 4.09 and a WHIP of 1.455.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.3 units)




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TEXAS (12 - 10) at OAKLAND (13 - 13) - 3:37 PM
KYLE DOWDY (R) vs. AARON BROOKS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 110-79 (+33.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 38-21 (+17.3 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 59-37 (+18.9 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 41-26 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 70-51 (+19.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 59-37 (+23.6 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-1 (+1.6 Units) against TEXAS this season
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.9 Units)



KYLE DOWDY vs. OAKLAND since 1997
No recent starts.



AARON BROOKS vs. TEXAS since 1997
No recent starts.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


CHI WHITE SOX (9 - 13) at BALTIMORE (9 - 16) - 7:05 PM
ERVIN SANTANA (R) vs. JOHN MEANS (L)
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 56-131 (-51.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 30-63 (-29.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 33-86 (-41.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 33-91 (-45.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 27-49 (-19.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-1 (+0.3 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)



ERVIN SANTANA vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
SANTANA is 5-5 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 4.44 and a WHIP of 1.224.
His team's record is 8-8 (-1.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-10. (-5.5 units)



JOHN MEANS vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
No recent starts.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


DETROIT (12 - 10) at BOSTON (9 - 15) - 7:10 PM
TYSON ROSS (R) vs. EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ (L)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 62-200 (-75.4 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +175 to +250 since 1997.
DETROIT is 72-130 (-41.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 98-50 (+25.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 55-35 (+19.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
RODRIGUEZ is 22-6 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
DETROIT is 8-2 (+8.0 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
DETROIT is 8-2 (+8.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
BOSTON is 9-15 (-15.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 8-12 (-12.0 Units) against the money line in April games this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 2-0 (+3.5 Units) against BOSTON this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)



TYSON ROSS vs. BOSTON since 1997
No recent starts.



EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ vs. DETROIT since 1997
RODRIGUEZ is 2-1 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.52 and a WHIP of 1.304.
His team's record is 2-2 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.3 units)




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MINNESOTA (13 - 8) at HOUSTON (14 - 9) - 8:10 PM
KOHL STEWART (R) vs. JUSTIN VERLANDER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 65-63 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 55-39 (-24.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 36-32 (-28.8 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 20-25 (-23.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
VERLANDER is 10-12 (-19.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
VERLANDER is 6-11 (-19.3 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)


Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-1 (+0.6 Units) against HOUSTON this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)



KOHL STEWART vs. HOUSTON since 1997
No recent starts.



JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
VERLANDER is 19-9 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.210.
His team's record is 21-15 (-0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 18-15. (+2.5 units)




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NY YANKEES (13 - 10) at LA ANGELS (9 - 15) - 10:07 PM
C.C. SABATHIA (L) vs. FELIX PENA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 66-50 (-26.6 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 38-49 (-16.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 23-36 (-17.6 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 33-62 (-26.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
NY YANKEES is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)



C.C. SABATHIA vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
SABATHIA is 12-9 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 3.50 and a WHIP of 1.283.
His team's record is 12-12 (-4.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 13-11. (+0.7 units)



FELIX PENA vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
No recent starts.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MIAMI (7 - 16) at CLEVELAND (12 - 10) - 1:10 PM
SANDY ALCANTARA (R) vs. JEFRY RODRIGUEZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 103-84 (-30.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 130-126 (-36.8 Units) against the money line in home games in April games since 1997.
CLEVELAND is 19-25 (-22.9 Units) against the money line in an inter-league game over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 79-59 (-18.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 (+2.1 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)



SANDY ALCANTARA vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
No recent starts.



JEFRY RODRIGUEZ vs. MIAMI since 1997
RODRIGUEZ is 0-0 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 3.60 and a WHIP of 1.600.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


SEATTLE (16 - 10) at SAN DIEGO (13 - 11) - 3:40 PM
FELIX HERNANDEZ (R) vs. CHRIS PADDACK (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HERNANDEZ is 7-16 (-12.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SEATTLE is 16-10 (+8.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SEATTLE is 57-45 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 53-40 (+17.9 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 22-16 (+9.6 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-9 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in road games in April games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-2 (+9.5 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.
SEATTLE is 47-34 (+10.7 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
HERNANDEZ is 26-12 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Wednesday since 1997. (Team's Record)
SAN DIEGO is 36-57 (-23.0 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 23-40 (-19.4 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against SEATTLE this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)



FELIX HERNANDEZ vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
HERNANDEZ is 6-4 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 2.88 and a WHIP of 1.059.
His team's record is 8-5 (+1.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-7. (-2.4 units)



CHRIS PADDACK vs. SEATTLE since 1997
No recent starts.




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


SAN FRANCISCO (10 - 14) at TORONTO (11 - 13) - 4:07 PM
DREW POMERANZ (L) vs. CLAY BUCHHOLZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 62-114 (-37.8 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 36-74 (-34.1 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 56-72 (-28.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
POMERANZ is 24-35 (-21.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)
TORONTO is 129-149 (-59.0 Units) against the money line in home games in April games since 1997.
TORONTO is 17-31 (-18.1 Units) against the money line in home games against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against TORONTO this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)



DREW POMERANZ vs. TORONTO since 1997
POMERANZ is 3-2 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 4.63 and a WHIP of 1.885.
His team's record is 5-3 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.4 units)



CLAY BUCHHOLZ vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
BUCHHOLZ is 1-0 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 1.300.
His team's record is 2-2 (-0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (-0.4 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wednesday's Diamond Notes
April 24, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

Hottest team: Yankees (8-2 last 10)

New York started the season by losing six times as a heavy home favorite to Baltimore, Detroit, and Chicago. However, the Yankees pulled off a two-game home sweep of the rival Red Sox to get back on track as the Bronx Bombers are currently riding a five-game hot streak. The Yankees edged the Angels in 14 innings in the series opener, 4-3, in spite of playing without plenty of its stars, including Aaron Judge, who was injured last weekend.

New York won in Anaheim again last night, 7-5 as Luke Voit drilled a pair of home runs and Brett Gardner picked up four hits in the third spot. CC Sabathia takes the mound for the Yankees tonight as the veteran southpaw has not allowed an earned run in two starts this season. The Yankees are 2-0 in Sabathia’s two outings in 2019, while the former Cy Young winner beat the Angels last season, 2-1 as a short road underdog by tossing seven innings.

Coldest team: Phillies (1-5 last six)

This is a road trip from hell for Philadelphia, who has won once in six games at Colorado and New York as the only victory came last Saturday at Coors Field, 8-5. In the last three losses, the Phillies’ offense has produced two runs, while getting outscored 14-1 in two defeats at Citi Field to the Mets.

Vince Velasquez tries to stop the bleeding for Philadelphia as the right-hander has given up five earned runs in three starts this season. Velasquez hasn’t received a decision in those three starts, but the Phillies are 2-1 in those outings. Last season, the Phillies went 0-2 in Velasquez’s two starts against the Mets, while Philadelphia is 2-11 in his past 13 road outings since 2018.

Hottest pitcher: Jordan Lyles, Pirates (2-0, 0.53 ERA)

Pittsburgh has dropped each of the first two games to Arizona in its four-game set at PNC Park. The Pirates will try to snap a three-game skid as Lyles seeks his third win of the season. Lyles has put together incredible numbers through three outings by yielding only one run in 17 innings of work, while outdueling Madison Bumgarner in a 4-1 win over the Giants last Friday. The Pirates have hit the UNDER in all three of Lyles’ starts, while Pittsburgh is 2-0 this season after scoring one run or less.

Coldest pitcher: Tyson Ross, Tigers (1-2, 3.38 ERA)

Detroit stunned Boston with a doubleheader sweep at Fenway Park on Tuesday as the Tigers look to beat the stumbling Sox once again. Ross started the season with a pair of solid outings against the Yankees and Royals by allowing four runs (three earned) in 12 innings or work. However, the veteran right-hander has yielded nine runs (six earned) in his last 12 innings on the mound, although the Tigers rallied past the White Sox, 9-7 in his last outing. The Tigers are 0-2 in Ross’ two road starts this season, while his teams (Padres and Cardinals) won eight of his 13 away starts in 2018.

Biggest OVER run: Braves (7-2 last nine)

Atlanta’s offense continues to stay hot in spite of dropping a 7-6 decision at Cincinnati on Tuesday. The Braves posted 19 runs in the final 14 innings of their series win at Cleveland, while scoring their seven runs from the fifth to the eighth inning in last night’s one-run defeat. Mike Soroka makes his second start for Atlanta as he pitched well in a 4-1 home loss to Arizona last Thursday. Soroka allowed four hits and one earned run in five innings, but the Braves’ offense couldn’t get going as the right-hander easily cashed a pair of OVERS in his previous two road starts in 2018.

Biggest UNDER run: Nationals (4-2 last six)

Washington took care of Colorado last night, 6-3 to even up their three-game series at 1-1 heading into the rubber match this afternoon at Coors Field. Following an OVER on an 11 total in the series opener, the oddsmakers posted another 11 on Tuesday night, but the Nationals were able to limit an opponent to three runs or less for the fourth time in six games. Anibal Sanchez heads to the mound today as the Nationals are 3-0 to the UNDER in his previous three starts, while Washington has not scored more than three runs in any of his past three outings.

Matchup to watch: Dodgers vs. Cubs

These two powerhouses have hooked up in two of the last three National League Championship Series as they continue their series at Wrigley Field. The Cubs jumped out to an early 6-0 lead after two innings in Tuesday’s 7-2 rout of the Dodgers to improved to 8-2 in the last 10 games. Jose Quintana shut down the Dodgers’ bats by tossing seven innings and allowing two earned runs to pick up his third victory of the season.

The Cubs turn to another southpaw tonight as Cole Hamels seeks his fourth win after a shaky start against Texas to begin the season. Hamels hasn’t walked a batter in his last three starts, while giving up only three earned runs in 21 innings of work, including seven scoreless innings against the Marlins last Wednesday in a 6-0 victory.

Wade Buehler counters for Los Angeles seeking consistency as the young right-hander has given up five earned runs in two starts, but has allowed one run in two other outings. Buehler pitched into the seventh inning of last Wednesday’s 3-2 home victory over the Reds as he struck out eight and allowed three hits and one unearned run. The Dodgers’ offense has scored a total of seven runs in the last four games at Wrigley Field, while three of those games have gone UNDER the total.

Betcha didn’t know: Justin Verlander is making his second home start of the season as the Astros finish off their series with the Twins. Last season, the Astros lost nine times as a favorite of -200 or more at Minute Maid Park when Verlander took the mound. The former Cy Young winner and MVP faces a Minnesota team that is 6-1 off a loss this season, while Twins’ right-hander Kohl Stewart returns to his hometown of Houston for his first start of 2019.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

By: Andrew Caley



STREAKING AND SLUMPING STARTERS

STREAKING

Jordan Lyles, Pittsburgh Pirates (2-0, 0.53 ERA, $359): The Pirates have gotten off to a strong start this season thanks to some excellent starting pitching. The most surprising of the bunch has to be Lyles. The 28-year-old has been dealing, allowing just one run with a 0.88 WHIP in his first three starts. He’ll try to keep it going as the Pirates host the Diamondbacks Wednesday. Pittsburgh is a -120 fave with a total of 8.

SLUMPING

Aaron Brooks, Oakland Athletics (2-2, 5.32 ERA, $-5): Brooks has pitched to an elevated 7.31 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over his last three starts. If he wants to bounce back today against the Rangers, he’ll need to limit the long ball. Brooks has allowed four home runs in his last three starts. Oakland is currently a -166 home favorite with a total of 9 for today’s matchup.


3 STRIKES

MOWING THEM DOWN

Blake Snell has looked like his old self after getting roughed up by the Astros in his opening start. Since then, he has allowed just one earned run on nine hits with 33 punch outs in 19 innings pitched. Snell and the Rays are massive -245 today against the Royals with a total of 7.

ROCKY MOUNTAIN LOW

Wednesday presents another opportunity for one of our favorite trends as the Nationals visit the Rockies at Coors Field. Today’s game pits Anibal Sanchez against German Marquez. Sanchez hasn’t been as good as he was last year but has been solid. Meanwhile Marquez, has been great with a 2.25 ERA and an 0.98 WHIP. The Nats bats are inconsistent and the Rockies still can’t hit. Take a look at the Under 10.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends - Wednesday
April 24, 2019
By Vince Akins

SU Play ON Trend of the Day:

-- The Rockies are 16-0 SU as a 140+ favorite off a home game in which they hit at least one home run.


SU Play AGAINST Trend of the Day:

-- The Giants are 0-15 SU as a dog in the last game of a road series after one run win as a dog.

Batter-Based Trend of the Day:

-- The Dodgers are 0-9 SU when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after a game in which Corey Seager had multiple hits.

Starter-Based Trend of the Day:

-- The Mariners are 0-7 SU with Felix Hernandez as a dog in April when they won his last start.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Dunkel

Wednesday, April 24


Utah @ Houston

Game 517-518
April 24, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Utah
122.386
Houston
132.315
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 10
205
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 8
213
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-8); Under

LA Clippers @ Golden State

Game 515-516
April 24, 2019 @ 10:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Clippers
109.425
Golden State
130.529
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 21
238
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 14
234
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-14); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wednesday's Playoff Essentials
Tony Mejia

Western Conference First Round – Game 5

No. 5 Utah at No. 4 Houston (ESPN, 8:05 p.m. ET) -- Rockets lead 3-1

April 14 – Rockets (-6.5) 122 vs. Jazz 90 (Under 212.5)
April 17 – Rockets (-6.5) 118 vs. Jazz 98 (Over 215.5)
April 20 – Rockets (+2) 104 at Jazz 101 (Under 215.5)
April 22 – Jazz (+2) 107 vs. Rockets 91 (Under 215)

Donovan Mitchell wasn’t allowing the Rockets to sweep the Jazz out of the playoffs in Salt Lake City.

The second-year guard scored 19 of his 31 points in the game-deciding fourth quarter and Utah’s defense held Houston to a playoff-low scoring output in a 107-91 win that allowed them to stave off elimination for at least a few more days, forcing them back on a long flight back to Texas’ largest city.

While it remains to be seen whether the Jazz simply postponed the inevitable, their fourth-quarter dominance featured exactly what they need in order to stunningly win four straight and pull a second consecutive first-round upset. Utah defended extremely well at the rim, altering shots and controlling the boards, winning that battle by a 52-35 count while outscoring Houston 52-22 in the paint. For the Rockets, it marked their first game being held under 100 points since a loss in Milwaukee on March 26. It was the team’s lowest scoring output since Nov. 10 and only the fourth time in 2019 that they failed to reach the century mark.

If he is, this series at least has a chance to be compelling.

Mitchell played closer after a slow start and demonstrated a fabulous will to win that served as a driving force, but the Jazz probably would’ve won Game 4 if he hadn’t exploded. What will ultimately decide whether this first-round series can be extended again is whether their strong defense can travel. Houston averaged 120 points in convincingly winning the first two games of the series, winning by a combined margin of 52 points. Center Rudy Gobert and power forward Derrick Favors must again control the paint and Jae Crowder has to serve as an asset at both ends, which will be far more difficult to manage on the road. Counting the playoffs, the Jazz are now 21-22 outside Salt Lake City. Houston’s 33-10 mark at home is better than all teams except the Bucks, Nuggets, Raptors and Trail Blazers.

The Rockets’ x-factor is the health of center Clint Capela, whose lack of activity was glaring and allowed Utah’s bigs to settle in and impose their will in the manner they did. Capela, who averaged 11.3 points and 12 rebounds over the first three wins, managed just four points and seven boards in Game 4, missing five of his six field goal attempts. He revealed he’s been diagnosed with a pair of viruses (adenovirus and kiebsiella for those medically-inclined) that has really sapped his energy and are guaranteed to keep him from being 100 percent over the next few games. I’m sure there’s no one who wants to get back on another flight to Utah less than Capela would be if he’s feeling ill, but he’s up against a difficult matchup and will need teammates to bail him out given that he’s operating at a diminished capacity. Expect Kenneth Faried to get more minutes if Capela remains as ineffective as he was in Game 4.

NBA expert Kevin Rogers points out that while the Rockets have had a solid run in home series-clinchers, they haven’t been reliable against the number.

“The Rockets have won three of the last four close-out games in the playoffs at home since 2017 with the lone defeat coming to the Warriors in last season’s conference finals. However, Houston owns a 1-3 ATS mark in these games, which includes a non-cover against Utah in last season’s Game 5 of the second round as 11 ½-point favorites in a 112-102 victory,” said Rogers. “Although it’s a small sample size, the Jazz have posted a perfect 2-0 ATS record when facing elimination on the road in the playoffs under Quin Snyder, and this is the biggest number Utah is receiving as an underdog in this series.”

The Rockets finished off a 122-90 Game 1 win with a dominant fourth quarter and led by 28 points entering the final 12 minutes of Game 2, so the Jazz haven’t had many stretches of success at the Toyota Center in this postseason. Each team won on the other’s home court once during the regular season and got blown out there as well, but most of this Utah roster has had limited success in the Rockets’ building and found themselves eliminated there in Game 5 of the Western Conference semifinals last year (112-102).

The low-side in 17-6-1 over the Rockets’ last 24 contests since the beginning of March and has gone 3-1 in the series. The Rockets must find a way to limit offensive boards after being outscored 17-3 on second-chance points in Game 4. Harden is averaging 28.8 points in the series after leading the NBA with a scoring clip of 36.1 during the regular season and is shooting just 37 percent from the field over the four games, so we’ll see if he can put together a big game to close things out. The Jazz covered in all three games where they were an underdog of 7.5 points or more this season.


Western Conference First Round – Game 5

No. 8 L.A. Clippers at No. 1 Golden State (TNT, 10:40 p.m. ET) -- Warriors lead 3-1

Apr. 13 - Warriors (-13.5) 121 vs. Clippers 104 (Under 233)
Apr. 15 - Clippers (+13.5) 135 at Warriors 131 (Over 234)
Apr. 18 - Warriors (-9.5) 132 at Clippers 105 (Over 234)
Apr. 21 - Warriors (-9.5) 113 at Clippers 105 (Under 236)

It’s been an eventful first-round series for the Warriors, who have unexpectedly lost a game, lost their starting center and on occasion, lost their tempers in attempting to dispose of the pesky eighth-seeded Clippers. While many of the team’s players call Los Angeles home, no Golden State player or coach wants a return trip there for a Game 6. It’s time to start concentrating on the next round, especially with the Rockets on the brink of clinching against the Jazz.

The Warriors have largely dominated the series against L.A. outside of a remarkable Game 2 second-collapse that saw them blow a 31-point lead, evening things up at a game apiece. They’ve since taken control of the series, but Klay Thompson indicated that the team is aggravated that it let anyone walk out of Oracle Arena with a victory, something they’re looking to ensure doesn’t become a common occurrence during this three-peat bid.

For whatever reason, the Warriors didn’t look sharp to open the playoffs, following up a 21-turnover Game 1 by committing 22 in the Game 2 setback as Kevin Durant racked up nine. After fouling out of Game 2 following a Game 1 ejection, he found his game at Staples Center, dominating out-sized guard Patrick Beverley, who has been in a pest role against him all series. DeMarcus Cousins is likely done for the rest of the playoffs, Stephen Curry has struggled with his shot and Klay Thompson has been hit-or-miss, so the team’s most consistent All-Star thus far has actually been Draymond Green.

It would be silly to write that the Warriors need to acquire confidence from a close-out game in this series given all that they’ve accomplished, but it would be nice to see multiple guys find a groove in the same game, especially if you’re up for laying the points here. As a favorite of 13.5 points or more this calendar year, Golden State is 8-3 SU but just 6-5 against the number. Each of their losses in that situation has occurred since March 10, including the Game 2 loss to the Clippers.

Golden State opened the postseason as a 2-to-7 favorite (-350) at Westgate to win the West and 1-to-2 (-200) to win the NBA title and have had their odds adjusted to 1-to-3 to win the West (-300) and 5-to-8 (-160) to win it all, so we’re reaching the point where you’re unlikely to find better odds on the defending two-time champs unless they fall behind early in any of their upcoming series. They were made a heavy favorite (-360) in a potential series with the Rockets by Westgate, who have Houston at +280.

Like many other pundits, Chris David of VegasInsider.com expects Golden State to advance but laying two touchdowns in Game 5 looks like a toss-up based what we’ve seen from this season’s Warriors squad.

He explained, “Including the first two games of this series, Golden State has gone 21-4 at home this season as a double-digit home favorite. For our purposes, Steve Kerr’s team has gone 12-13 ATS while the ‘under’ has produced a 15-10 record. Since the Warriors started making noise in the playoffs in 2015, the team has been favored by 10-plus points 22 times in the postseason. Golden State has only lost two of those games and that includes the recent Game 2 stunner to the Clippers. While their regular season ATS numbers were basically a stalemate, Golden State is just 8-14 ATS as a double-digit favorite in the playoffs.”

“In last year’s playoffs, the Warriors won their close-out games by an average of 12.3 PPG and that number was inflated a bit by their 23-point win over the Cavaliers in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. They only averaged 105.3 PPG and that lack of production helped the ‘under’ go 4-0. While that was the trend last season, two years prior was a much different story and their first run with Kevin Durant was explosive in 2017. In those four close-out games, the Warriors averaged 126.7 PPG and won by an average of 18.5 PPG.”

Golden State has lost just three of the last 20 games it has played against the Clippers at Oracle since 2012 and is 28-12 overall against them in that span, which includes a 17-3 run since ’15.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dwayne Connors

It really just comes down to whether or not the Warriors are going to cover this contest, as they should have covered on Sunday, but decided to dribble out the clock up 8 points as the -9 point road favorites in Los Angeles. To be fair, the Clippers were pretty much hanging around the impost all day long, and with this price up there at -14, the Clippers will most likely be hanging around this impost for most of the game.


Klay Thompson was the latest Warrior to step things up and lead the way with a whopping 27 of his series-high 32 points coming in the first half of play. By now you probably know Thompson credited his "mind reset" to jumping in the Pacific Ocean the day before the contest. Whether it was the ocean or not, I don't know, but I do know there is just too much offense on this Warriors team for the Clippers to slow down, so it's not really a question of "if" a Golden State run is coming, it's "when" the run - or runs - is coming, and how many points will that leave you behind?


Golden State did catch a little bit of a break when Houston failed to close out Utah on Monday night, as the Rockets must now play an extra game (tonight), as Houston had hoped to get a little added down time before their inevitable semifinal showdown with the Warriors. With the prospect of both teams getting off the court and preparing for each other, look for the Warriors to show much interest in building a big lead early and then protecting the lead (see Game Two's collapse) as they end the series and the season for the Clippers.


Both Danilo Gallinari and Lou Williams have struggled with their shot lately, and if they cannot find the range tonight - even for a quarter or two - then the Dubs will have the Clips squarely in the rear view mirror.


Golden State sports 6 straight up wins in the last 7 series meetings, and they sport 4 covers in the last 6 series meetings between the teams.


Go ahead and lay it and look for the "back door" to be closed.


Warriors by 18 points.

2* GOLDEN STATE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Valentino

Comp play winner for tonight is for Game Seven of this Carolina-Washington series to land Over the total.

I am not sure I would lay the -150 to -155 on the Capitals, as that is a little "pricy", but I do like the goals to add up to an Over.

With this being the last game left before someone advances and someone goes home, chances are the team trailing will be lifting their netminder on the earlier side of things, rather than the later side of things.

All 3 games played in this series in D.C. have landed Over the total, as Game One saw a combined 6 goals and an Over. Game Two went to overtime and featured a combined 7 goals. The pair of games next played in Raleigh were Under the total, but Games Five and Six also landed Over the total with another 6 goals - all of them by the Caps in Game Five - and another 7 goals in Game Six tallied.

Both Mrazek and Holtby are capable of keeping the pucks out of the net, but if either heads to the bench for the extra-attacker - which simply has to be considered tonight - then the prospect of a flashing red light becomes greater.

'Canes-Caps Over the total.

3* CAROLINA-WASHINGTON OVER