Saturday 4-27-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NHL
Long Sheet

Saturday, April 27

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DALLAS (47-34-0-8, 102 pts.) at ST LOUIS (50-29-0-10, 110 pts.) - 4/27/2019, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 35-17 ATS (+8.2 Units) second half of the season this season.
ST LOUIS is 29-18 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 17-6 ATS (+10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
DALLAS is 220-242 ATS (+513.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 7-7-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+0.1 Units)

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COLUMBUS (51-31-0-5, 107 pts.) at BOSTON (54-27-0-9, 117 pts.) - 4/27/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 293-246 ATS (-151.3 Units) in home games second half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 6-4 (+1.7 Units) against the spread versus COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 6-4-0 straight up against COLUMBUS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+6.4 Units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Saturday, April 27

Trend Report

Dallas Stars
Dallas is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Dallas is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing St. Louis
Dallas is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
Dallas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
St. Louis Blues
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
St. Louis is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
St. Louis is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of St. Louis's last 21 games at home
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
St. Louis is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing Dallas
St. Louis is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Dallas
St. Louis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas

Columbus Blue Jackets
Columbus is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Columbus is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Columbus's last 22 games
Columbus is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Columbus is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Columbus's last 16 games on the road
Columbus is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston
Columbus is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Columbus's last 11 games when playing Boston
Columbus is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Boston
Columbus is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Columbus's last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston Bruins
Boston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Boston is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games at home
Boston is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games at home
Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Columbus
Boston is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing Columbus
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Boston's last 11 games when playing Columbus
Boston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Columbus
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Columbus
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing at home against Columbus

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's Tip Sheet
Kevin Rogers

Eastern Conference Second Round – Game 1

No. 3 Philadelphia at No. 2 Toronto (TNT, 7:35 p.m. ET)

2018-19 Regular Season (Raptors 3-1, Over 2-2)
Oct. 30 - Raptors (-6) 129 vs. 76ers 112 (Over 227.5)
Dec. 5 – Raptors (-6.5) 113 vs. 76ers 102 (Under 229)
Dec. 22 – 76ers (-7) 126 vs. Raptors 101 (Over 221)
Feb. 5 – Raptors (+2) 119 at 76ers 107 (Under 230)

Both the Raptors and 76ers were expected to make the second round of the playoffs, but nobody predicted each of these Atlantic division squads would lose their postseason opener. Toronto and Philadelphia each overcame early upsets to win four consecutive games and advance to the conference semifinals for the second straight season.

The Raptors were tripped up by the Magic on a last-second three-pointer in Game 1, but Toronto roared back with four wins in a row, including three by double-digits. Toronto’s defense clamped down after allowing 104 points in the series opener as the Raptors yielded 82, 93, 85, and 96 points to move onto the second round of the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season.

Kawhi Leonard stepped up in his first postseason in a Raptors’ uniform by averaging 27.8 points per game, including a 37-point performance in a Game 2 blowout of Orlando. Forward Pascal Siakam averaged 16.9 ppg in the regular season, but was a force in the opening round by scoring 22.6 ppg, including racking up a pair of double-doubles.

The 76ers fell behind early in Game 1 against the Nets and couldn’t recover in a 111-102 defeat as 7 ½-point home favorites. Philadelphia rebounded nicely in Game 2 by dropping 145 points on Brooklyn, including a monster 51-point output in the third quarter of a 145-123 blowout. Six 76ers scored at least 15 points and that group didn’t include Jimmy Butler, who was limited to seven points.

The Sixers traveled to Barclays Center for Game 3 and played without star center Joel Embiid, but Philadelphia rolled to a 131-115 victory behind 31 points from Ben Simmons on 11-of-13 shooting from the floor. Embiid showed no signs of rust in Game 4 as the Sixers rallied past the Nets, 112-108 as Philadelphia improved to 4-0 on the road in the first round the last two postseasons. The Sixers finished off the series in Game 5 after jumping out to a 23-2 lead in a 122-100 blowout as nine-point favorites.

Toronto captured three of four regular season meetings, including both matchups at Scotiabank Arena. The Raptors rolled past the Sixers in late October, 129-112 to cash as six-point favorites, led by Leonard’s 31 points. Toronto beat Philadelphia again at home in early December, 113-102 as Leonard and Butler went back and forth scoring. Leonard finished with 36 points, while Butler posted 38 points in his first matchup with Toronto after getting dealt by Minnesota.

Philadelphia broke through against Toronto in the third matchup, 126-101 at Wells Fargo Center as the Sixers outscored the Raptors by 19 points in the second half. Leonard didn’t suit up for Toronto, while Embiid posted a double-double with 27 points and 11 rebounds. The Raptors won the final meeting in Philadelphia, 119-107 as Toronto went into halftime owning a 17-point halftime edge. Leonard was limited to 3-of-11 shooting from the floor, but hit 16 free throws to lead Toronto with 24 points.

After losing to the Magic in their first-round opener at home, the Raptors dropped to 2-14 all-time in postseason Game 1s. Chris David of VegasInsider.com believes that record is factored into the opening number of this series, which is the Raptors -5.

He explained, “As a bettor, it’s tough to trust Toronto as a home favorite in the playoffs. Since the 2014 postseason, the club has gone 15-10 SU and 9-15-1 ATS. However, The Raptors did trounce the Magic by double digits in Game 2 and 5 behind an offense that averaged 113 PPG. In three wins and covers in last year’s playoffs versus the Wizards, the attack posted 117.3 PPG.”

David feels that the poor ATS playoff records for Toronto at home could be overlooked by its recent domination of Philadelphia. He added, “This Philadelphia squad is certainly more talented than Orlando and Washington but it’s had plenty of trouble against Toronto. Ignoring the fact that the Raptors have gone 6-2 both SU and ATS in their last eight encounters with the 76ers would be foolish. Toronto has big advantages in three key categories – defense, 3-point shooting and depth. Knowing Philadelphia hasn’t won in Canada since 2012 makes it tough to trust the ‘dog come Saturday but the oddsmakers have me scratching my head. Since Philly became competitive again, it was getting 6 to 9 points in its last four trips to Toronto. Now the line is five?”


Game 7 – Spurs at Nuggets – 10:05 PM EST – TNT

Series tied at 3-3

The lone Game 7 to take place in this season’s chalk-heavy playoffs is between a #2 and #7 seed. Denver and San Antonio were separated by six games in the regular season, so the Spurs forcing a seventh game shouldn’t be a huge shocker. However, the last four contests in this series have been decided by double-digits, while San Antonio has lost two games after squandering leads of 19 in Game 2 and 12 in Game 4.

The Spurs gave up another double-digit advantage in Game 6 after leading 34-24 following one quarter. Denver rallied to go in front in the second quarter, but the Spurs closed out strong to lead by four at halftime. San Antonio pulled away in the fourth quarter to grab a crucial 120-103 victory and reach a seventh game for the first time since the 2015 first round against the Clippers.

The key to San Antonio’s success in Game 6 was shooting extremely well as the Spurs knocked down 57% of their shots from the floor, including an efficient 12-of-16 performance from DeMar DeRozan. The Spurs’ guard scored 25 points, while LaMarcus Aldridge paced San Antonio with 26 points and veteran Rudy Gay dropped in 19 points off the bench. The Nuggets’ bench produced only 13 points, while Nikola Jokic carried the load for Denver with a career-high 43 points.

The OVER has hit in four of six games in this series as the two UNDERS have come at Pepsi Center in Games 1 and 5. In four of five meetings in Denver this season, the Spurs and Nuggets have seen the UNDER cash as the totals in this series have fluctuated between 208 and 210 ½ (Saturday’s total sits at 209).

Last season, four series reached a Game 7 as the home team went 2-2 in those contests. In the conference finals, both road teams (Cleveland and Golden State) captured victories on their way to the NBA Finals. San Antonio last picked up a Game 7 win in the opening round of the 2014 playoffs against Dallas as that Spurs’ squad eventually won the NBA title. Denver hasn’t won a Game 7 in the postseason since the 1978 semifinals against Milwaukee, while falling to the Lakers in its previous Game 7 appearance in the 2012 opening round.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

541San Antonio -542 Denver
SAN ANTONIO is 33-15 ATS (16.5 Units) when tied in a playoff series since 1996.

553Philadelphia -554 Toronto
PHILADELPHIA is 16-4 ATS (11.6 Units) after a division game in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, April 27


Philadelphia @ Toronto

Game 553-554
April 27, 2019 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
120.889
Toronto
130.328
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 9 1/2
231
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 6 1/2
222 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-6 1/2); Over

San Antonio @ Denver

Game 541-542
April 27, 2019 @ 10:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Antonio
115.838
Denver
123.341
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 7 1/2
203
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 6
209 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-6); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, April 27

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SAN ANTONIO (51 - 37) at DENVER (57 - 31) - 4/27/2019, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 27-17 ATS (+8.3 Units) in home games this season.
DENVER is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 1093-959 ATS (+38.1 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) when tied in a playoff series since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 36-27 ATS (+6.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
DENVER is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 10-7 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 10-7 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (55 - 32) at TORONTO (62 - 25) - 4/27/2019, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-28 ATS (-12.8 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
TORONTO is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games in April games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 144-116 ATS (+16.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 64-46 ATS (+13.4 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after a division game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 39-19 ATS (+18.1 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 79-57 ATS (+16.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 46-29 ATS (+14.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 79-56 ATS (+17.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 46-25 ATS (+18.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 208-263 ATS (-81.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 8-4 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 9-3 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Saturday, April 27

76ers/Raptors both won first round series in five games; both should be well-rested. Philly lost three of four games with Toronto this season, losing by 17-11 points in their two visits to Canada. Three of four series games stayed under the total. Raptors won 11 of last 13 games overall; they covered four of last five home games. Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. 76ers won six of their last eight games; they covered three of their last four road games. 13 of their last 19 games went over the total.

Home side won 14 of last 16 San Antonio-Denver games. Spurs outscored Denver 30-18 in 4th quarter Thursday, shot 57% from floor and won by 17 to even series 3-3. Home team is 4-2 in this series, with two of three games in this building staying under total. Nuggets were 6-24 on arc in Game 6, after going 44-93 in Games 3-5. SA was +18 in 20:00 with Belinelli on floor in Game 6; Gay scored 19 points in 28:00, as Spurs’ bench played big role in win. Seven of last ten series games stayed under the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Saturday, April 27

Trend Report

Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Philadelphia's last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 3-21 SU in its last 24 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 14 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Toronto is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 21-3 SU in its last 24 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Toronto's last 14 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of San Antonio's last 12 games on the road
San Antonio is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Denver
San Antonio is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver Nuggets
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 10 games at home
Denver is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games when playing at home against San Antonio
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against San Antonio

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA Playoffs - Game 7 Facts

Game 7 Quick Facts

-- The NBA has had 132 Game 7’s in playoff history

-- The home team is 104-28 (79%) in those games

-- The 2018 NBA playoffs has had four Game 7's and road teams captured two wins.

Eastern Conference First Round - Cleveland 105 vs. Indiana 101
Eastern Conference First Round - Boston 112 vs. Milwaukee 96
Eastern Conference Finals - Cleveland 87 at Boston 79
Western Conference Finals - Golden State 101 at Houston 92

-- The 2017 NBA playoffs only had two Game 7's and the results were split with the Jazz capturing a rare road victory.

Western Conference First Round - Utah 104 at L.A. Clippers 91
Eastern Conference Semifinals - Boston 115 vs. Washington 105

-- The 2016 NBA playoffs had five Game 7's played and the home team won four games (3-2 ATS), two of the victories coming by double digits.

Eastern Conference First Round - Miami 106 vs. Charlotte 73
Eastern Conference First Round - Toronto 89 vs. Indiana 84
Eastern Conference Semifinals - Toronto 116 vs. Miami 89
Western Conference Finals - Golden State 96 vs. Oklahoma City 88
NBA Finals - Cleveland 93 at Golden State 89

-- The 2015 postseason featured two Game 7's. The home team went 2-0 with the Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets capturing victories.

-- The 2014 postseason featured five Game 7's. The home team went 4-1 in those games and the lone visitor to win was Brooklyn, who defeated Toronto 104-103 in overtime.


San Antonio Game 7 Recent History

The Spurs have played in 10 Game 7's in franchise history. They've gone 4-6 in those contests, losing their last encounter in the 2015 playoffs on the road.

2015 First Round
San Antonio 109 at L.A. Clippers 111

2014 First Round
San Antonio 119 vs. Dallas 96

2013 Finals
San Antonio 88 at Miami 95


Denver Game 7 Recent History

The Nuggets have only played in three Game 7's in franchise history. They've gone 1-2 in those games with the last matchup coming in 2012.

2012 First Round
Denver 87 at L.A. Lakers 96

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd
Apr 27 '19, 4:05 PM in 5h
MLB | CLE vs HOU
Play on: OVER 9 -110

1* Free MLB Pick on Indians/Astros OVER 9

I'm confident the Astros and Indians will combine for at least 10 runs. Everyone knows about the offensive fire-power with Houston, but Cleveland comes in swinging a hot bat after a pretty dreadful start to the year offensively.

Indians have scored 5 or more runs in 5 of their last 7 (only did that 3 times in their first 14 games). Some of their big names are starting to produce. I think they will stay hot against Houston's Brad Peacock, who has a 4.86 ERA in 3 starts (7.20 ERA in 2 home starts).

I know Cleveland's Shane Beiber is throwing great, but the Astros have played 11 home games and are averaging 5.6 runs and hitting .311 with a .391 OBP. Chances are they will find a way to put some runs on the board. Take the OVER!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker
Apr 27 '19, 3:07 PM in 4h
MLB | A's vs Blue Jays
Play on: Blue Jays -103 at 5Dimes

Free Pick on Blue Jays

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn
Apr 27 '19, 4:05 PM in 5h
MLB | Padres vs Nationals
Play on: Nationals -162 at 5Dimes

1* Free Play on Nationals -162

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones
Apr 27 '19, 4:05 PM in 5h
MLB | Yankees vs Giants
Play on: Giants -107 at 5Dimes

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: San Francisco Giants -107

The Yankees have managed to win seven of their last eight despite missing almost all of their key players. It has been impressive, but they can’t keep winning with the guys they are missing.

I expect the Giants to bounce back from a Game 1 loss with a victory in Game 2 Saturday in this interleague series. Derek Holland has been solid for the Giants, posting a 4.33 ERA and 1.222 WHIP in five starts.

J.A. Happ has been roughed up for the Yankees this season. He is 0-2 is 5.96 ERA and 1.403 WHIP in five starts this season. Happ is also 1-4 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.567 WHIP in five career starts against San Francisco. Bet the Giants Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price
Apr 27 '19, 6:05 PM in 7h
MLB | Marlins vs Phillies
Play on: Marlins +157 at sportsbook

1* Free Pick on Marlins +157

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mark Wilson
Apr 27 '19, 7:10 PM in 8h
MLB | Brewers vs Mets
Play on: Brewers +130 at sportsbook

Free Play on Brewers +130