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Saturday 4-27-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Ricky Tran
Apr 27 '19, 8:08 PM in 9h
NHL | Blue Jackets vs Bruins
Play on: UNDER 5½ -121
Ricky's 1* Free Play on the under Blue Jackets/Bruins.
I had a small play on the Blue Jackets on the “puck line” in Game 1. That one went “under” the number in the Bruins 3-2 OT victory and I believe another hard-fought and ultimately lower-scoring affair is in order for Game 2 as well.
Key Trends:
- Boston has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 home games following a two games or more unbeaten streak.
- Columbus has seen the total dip under the number in seven of its last nine following an OT road loss.
The verdict: I was surprised by Boston’s energy levels in Game 1, as it went through a gruelling seven game series vs. Toronto in the first round. The Blue Jackets clearly had some rust to shake off after being off for over a week after dispatching the Lightning in four games in their first round series. As stated above, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Consider the under!
Alex Smart
Apr 27 '19, 9:10 PM in 10h
MLB | Rangers vs Mariners
Play on: Rangers +111 at GTBets
Rangers LH Mike Minor (2-2, 3.21 ERA) vs. Mariners RH Mike Leake (2-2, 4.30)
The Rangers don't inspire alot of confidence from average punters, but there is value with them here on a value line here today as they go against a pitcher in Leake who has allowed three homers for the second time in a three-start span . Good fast ball hitting teams like the Rangers could have a big day here and deserve our dollars on the ML/ Note: In his career Leake has been smashed around by Hunter Pence (15-for-36, one homer) and Shin-Soo Choo (7-for-20). The The Mariners used seven of their eight relievers Friday night so if Leake struggles, which Im betting he does this could be a blood bath type of event favoring the Rangers.
Mariners are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (SEATTLE) - poor hitting team (AVG .260 or less ) against a top level starting pitcher (ERA 3.60 or less, WHIP 1.300 or better ) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 on the season-AL are 19-41 L/21 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors.
MLB All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TEXAS) - off 2 straight road losses vs. a division rival, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP 1.000 or less over his last 3 starts are 46-26 L/5 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors.
Comp play for Saturday will be to grab the points with Philadelphia in this first game of the Eastern Conference semifinals against the Toronto Raptors.
He are a couple of stats for you to chew on....Toronto has won 13 straight games on their home court over Philadelphia and they have covered in each of their last 4 home wins over the 76ers. Their average win margin in those games is a whopping 18.6 points!!! Not only that, but first-year Raptor, Kawhi Leonard is 13-0 in his career in games played against Philadelphia!
What does it all mean? It could mean the Sixers are in line for another shellacking, but since this price is "only" 6 points, I think the opposite is more likely, and that is a competitive game being played between the # 2 seed and the # 3 seed in the East.
Toronto did win and cover 3 of the 4 meetings during the regular season, but the postseason is a different beast, and both of these teams have been off since Tuesday night when both closed out their opening rounds with victories. I expect a little bit of a slow, feeling-out type of start to this game, as things stay close for the better part of this contest.
The key to me will be who guards Kawhi Leonard most effectively for the Sixers? Brett Brown has stated that he has multiple options that he is will to try to slow down the Raptors star player.
I think this is going to be one heck of an entertaining series, and today's first game will live up to the hype.
Take the points and Philly to cover this number in a close one.
My free play for tonight is on the Colorado Rockies against the Atlanta Braves. And in this one, because I believe we're looking at a pitching mismstch, be sure you're listing Jon Gray and Mike Foltynewicz.
The Rockies have won two straight and eight of 10, and they're sitting in fourth place in the National League West, four games back of the division leading Los Angeles Dodgers.
Tonight they hand the ball to Gray, who is fully capable of pitching deep into this game while keeping the Braves bats at bay.
The right-hander, who is just 2-3 on the year, has surrendered just 23 hits over 32 1/3 innings of work, while he's boasting 30-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a stingy 2.78 ERA.
On the flipside, for a Braves team that has dropped two in a row and 7 of 10, they're leaning on a guy who will be making his season debut. Foltynewicz missed most of Spring Training because of a right elbow bone spur that began bothering him in his Feb. 24 spring debut.
And the problem I'm having with the All-Star is in four rehab starts with Triple-A Gwinnett leading up to this weekend, his numbers were far from impressive. Foltynewicz allowed 12 earned runs over 17 2/3 innings, and said his arm felt good. I'm not sure how to take that, but if his arm is fine, why wasn't he dominating Triple-A hitters?
Now he's got to try to quiet the Rockies, a team he's struggled with in the past. Foltynewicz is 0-4 with a 4.11 ERA lifetime against Colorado, having allowed 20 runs and 34 hits over 35 innings against the Rockies.
Your comp play winner this Saturday night comes from Chavez Ravine as you can sit back and watch Joe Musgrove and Clayton Kershaw lock horns in a pitcher's duel that will see the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Los Angeles Dodgers hold Under the total.
Musgrove has developed into the "ace" of Clint Hurdle's staff, as his 28-plus innings pitched this season have seen a grand total of 7 runs - only 5 of them earned - for an ERA of 1.59. Musgrove has recorded 26 punch-outs, and allowed only 18 hits.
His counterpart Clayton Kershaw is making his his third start this season after opening on the disabled list, and the southpaw has recorded 13 innings with 13 strikeouts, and just 4 runs surrendered.
Strong chance both pitchers are on top of their games, and the runs stay limited here on Saturday night.
These teams opened their series last night with a game that just landed Over the total, but the fact remains that Pittsburgh has still held Under the total in 6 of their last 9 games, while Los Angeles is now on a 9-4 Under run their last 13 games contested.
Based on both the pitching trends, and the team trends, no sense in "rocking the boat" and looking for the offenses to do much more than push across single runs at the most in the majority of the 9 frames they play tonight.
I will play the Under tonight in the Pirates-Dodgers.
Reason: Your free play for Saturday, April 27, 2019 is in the MLB scheduled contest between the Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners. Your free play is on the Mariners.
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