Monday 4-29-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - SO - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9500 Class Rating: 96

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $4,000 OR LESS SINCE APRIL 29, 2017 OR CLAIMING PRICE $7,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 MR. LOVEJOY 4/5

# 4 SUCCESS RATE 9/2

# 1 MY DISCRETION 8/1

MR. LOVEJOY is the most respectable wager in this race. Has very strong Equibase Speed Figs and has to be considered for a bet for this event. This gelding has posted some nice finishing positions in his last few starts. Ran a strong last race. SUCCESS RATE - Must be considered a solid choice on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. This gelding looks like a longshot with a chance. MY DISCRETION - Recently Kereluk has provided wagerers with a quite good winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. Will almost certainly go to the lead and may never look back.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Mountaineer Park - Race #4 - Post: 8:06pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 DEAR BENNY (ML=8/1)
#6 DEE WAY TO GO (ML=5/2)


DEAR BENNY - This race horse should be rumbling down the lane. DEE WAY TO GO - When a horse finishes in the money as often as this filly does, you will usually want to use her in your exotic wagers. I like that most recent outing on Apr 9th at Mahoning Valley Race Cour where she ended up first. The 79 recent race speed rating looks good in black and white.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SHE'S HAD ENOUGH (ML=8/5), #1 CLASSIC ARCH (ML=9/2), #2 LA NENA DE PAPA (ML=5/1),

SHE'S HAD ENOUGH - I'd like to see more conducive recent outings with M/L odds of 8/5. Could be tough for this racer to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Unlikely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class figure, so put her on the likely underlays list. CLASSIC ARCH - This racer just hasn't looked sharp of late. Not probable that the speed rating she earned on March 8th will be good enough in this event. LA NENA DE PAPA - The fourth place result in the last event was not the greatest. 5/1 is not worth it for any horse in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a sprint race recently. Unlikely that the speed rating she earned on April 17th will be enough in this event.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #3 DEAR BENNY to win if you can get odds of 3/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

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NHL
Dunkel

Monday, April 29


St. Louis @ Dallas

Game 61-62
April 29, 2019 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
12.082
Dallas
11.273
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 1
3
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
-120
5
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(+100); Under

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Blues vs Stars NHL betting picks and predictions: Find third-period profits with this prop
Monty Andrews

Dallas rebounded from a 3-2 defeat in Game 1 by jumping out to a 3-1 first period lead in Game 2 and hanging on for a 4-2 victory. But don't expect the Blues to go quietly.

The Dallas Stars used a road split in their first-round series with Nashville to propel themselves to a six-game victory. They hope to do the same in Round 2 as they host the St. Louis Blues in Game 3 of their best-of-seven Western Conference semifinal.

Dallas rebounded from a 3-2 defeat in Game 1 by jumping out to a 3-1 first period lead in Game 2 and hanging on for a 4-2 victory. But don't expect the Blues to go quietly. They're unbeaten on the road in the Stanley Cup playoffs, defeating the Jets three times in Winnipeg en route to a six-game first-round triumph.

We break down the best bets for the NHL odds for Game 3 between the Blues and Stars Monday night – from quick-paying props to the moneyline and Over/Under.

St. Louis Blues vs. Dallas Stars (-115, 5)

QUICK-HITTER

Both teams have played eight games in the postseason. The Stars have seen a total of 13 first-period goals scored in their playoff contests, while the Blues have been part of 12 goals in the opening period. That makes for a difficult first-period totals bet, with both sides sitting right near the 1.5 first-period goals-per-game threshold.

But with the Stars scoring seven of their eight first-period goals in just two of those games, we like these teams to keep things low-scoring in the opening 20 minutes of Game 3. Rather than going with the Under 1.5 (-170), we suggest the "exactly one goal" prop. The chances are good that someone will score.

PREDICTION: Exactly one first-period goal scored (+160)


PERIOD BET

The Blues and their opponents have saved the best for last throughout the majority of their Stanley Cup playoff run. Consider St. Louis' total goal distribution by period so far in the playoffs: 12 in the first period, 10 in the second and 20 in the third. And while the Stars' second period has been the most prolific of all, they've allowed more goals in the final period (six) than either of the first two.

Both teams also saw opponents score more third-period goals during the regular season than either of the first or second frames – all of which we're using to say that the third is a great choice as the highest-scoring period of Game 3.

PREDICTION: Highest-scoring period: Period 3 (+225)


TEAM/PLAYER BET

Some guys seem to thrive when playing on the road and Vladimir Tarasenko is near the top of the list among forwards still toiling in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Tarasenko finished tied for sixth in the NHL in away goals during the regular season (21) despite finishing tied for 30th in overall goals (33).

He's also one of the hottest players in this series, having racked up four goals in eight postseason games after finishing the regular season with seven points over his final four contests. At decent odds to score anytime in Game 3, Tarasenko is a must-play option for those favoring the Blues.

PREDICTION: Vladimir Tarasenko anytime goal (+230)


FULL-GAME TOTAL

It's no surprise that the Game 3 total is sitting at five goals after the teams combined for 11 goals in the first two games in St. Louis. And that might tempt some bettors to consider the Over, but there are two strong trends at work that should keep this game on the Under 5 side.

Dallas boasted the lowest home goals-against average during the regular season at 2.24, while the Blues were one of three teams (Calgary and the New York Islanders were the others) to post the lowest road GAA in the league (2.39). Look for goals to be at a premium in what should be a closely contested Game 3.

PREDICTION: Under 5 (-120)


FULL-GAME SIDE

This one is a near-toss-up in oddsmakers' eyes, and with good reason. Both sides are 5-3 in the postseason, have one win apiece in this series and are separated by just one goal through two games. But we like the Stars to prevail in this one on the strength of home-ice advantage and superior special teams.

Dallas is scoring on 19.2 percent of its power-play chances while putting up a 95.5-percent penalty kill success rate. And while the Blues are operating at 23.1 percent efficiency with the man advantage, their penalty kill rate of 77.8 percent is trouble. This one should be close, but we like the hosts to prevail.

PREDICTION: Dallas -115

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Preview: Blues (45-28) at Stars (43-32)
Date: April 29, 2019 8:00 PM EDT

The St. Louis Blues will try to regain home-ice advantage when they visit the Dallas Stars for Game 3 of their Western Conference second-round series on Monday night.

The Stars won Game 2 in St. Louis 4-2 on Saturday to even the best-of-seven series at 1-1.

"It's going to be tight," Blues coach Craig Berube said the loss. "Both teams play good defensive hockey, both goalies are playing well."

Ben Bishop of the Stars and Jordan Binnington of the Blues were the only two NHL goalies to allow an average of fewer than two goals per game during the regular season.

Binnington, who didn't become the No. 1 goalie in St. Louis until early January, led the league with a 1.89 goals-against average, while Bishop was second at 1.98.

Bishop had the top save percentage in the NHL during the regular season at .934 and Binnington was tied for fourth at .927.

Binnington outplayed Bishop in a 3-2 win in Game 1 on Thursday, but Bishop came back with 32 saves in Game 2, a strong bounce-back performance after he stopped only 17 of 20 shots in the opener.

"Every game is a new game," said Bishop, who is 26-16 in his postseason career with a 2.08 GAA and .929 save percentage. "That's the way that I've done it in my career in the playoffs. I try not to get caught up in the past."

As strong as Binnington was during the regular season, he wasn't particularly sharp in his three regular-season starts against Dallas, posting an .879 save percentage and 2.76 GAA.

"They're a highly offensive team and they've got some skill, so they can capitalize on their chances," Binnington said.

Dallas forward Jamie Benn has a goal and an assist so far in the series. He scored five goals in four regular-season games against St. Louis this season as well.

This is Benn's fifth playoff series in 10 seasons with this Stars and he's never made it out of the second round.

Dallas rookie Roope Hintz scored two goals in Game 2 to give him four in these playoffs, tying the franchise record for the most goals by a rookie in a single postseason. Niko Kapanen scored four goals for Dallas during the 2003 playoffs.

Blues defenseman Colton Parayko said the Stars' combination of size and speed has been difficult to counter.

"They do a good job of getting up ice," Parayko said. "I think just advancing it past them and making sure that we get in the zone cleanly, but obviously that's easier said than done. We'll take a look at the video and kind of go from there."

Berube said the Blues needs to be better in a number of areas if they hope to take a 2-1 series lead.

"We've got to do a better job of little things, like in the breakout, better execution, and face-offs," Berube said. "That will help for sure."

Stars coach Jim Montgomery knows there's still a long series ahead with more ups and downs to come.

"The thing that our group has shown is that we're resilient," Montgomery said. "We always come back with a better effort."

--Field Level Media

***************************

SERIES AT A GLANCE

GAME 1
Stars at Blues
Thu, Apr 25 Final 2 to 3
Recaps

GAME 2
Stars at Blues
Sat, Apr 27 Final 4 to 2
Recaps

GAME 3
Blues at Stars
Mon, Apr 29 - 8:00PM EDT

GAME 4
Blues at Stars
Wed, May 1 - 9:30PM EDT

GAME 5
Stars at Blues
Fri, May 3 - 9:30PM EDT

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Mikey Money

MLB ATLANTA BRAVES ‑170

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Mikey Sports

NBA PHILADELPHIA 76ERS +6.5

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Monster Sports Picks

MLB TAMPA BAY RAYS ‑1.5 +100

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R and R Totals

MLB LOS ANGELES DODGERS/SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS ‑115 o7.5

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Silvas Sports

MLB COLORADO ROCKIES/MILWAUKEE BREWERS u8.5

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SportsPicks.Vegas

MLB TAMPA BAY RAYS/KANSAS CITY ROYALS u8.5

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Team Underground

MLB BOSTON RED SOX ‑145

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Top Dog

NBA PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS +160

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Top Shelf Sports Pick

MLB MILWAUKEE BREWERS ‑115

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Tys Terrific Tips

NBA PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS +4