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10:24 AM
On its face, this pitching matchup seems like an enticing matchup for the Under. But the splits indicate otherwise. The Braves' Julio Teheran has a career 5.73 ERA in Cincinnati, and Reds starter Luis Castillo enters this game with a 6.75 ERA against the Braves, which is the second highest amongst any team he has faced. Now, with a little more firepower added to each of the lineups, I see this total being shattered by the seventh inning. The Over shouldn’t be an issue.
24-11-1 IN LAST 36 MLB PICKS | +1066
L.A. DODGERS -116
L.A. DODGERS @ CHI. CUBS | 4/25 | 2:20 PM EDT
10:18 AM
Interesting stat that catches my eye: Ross Stripling is by far a better pitcher during day games than night games. In fact he is 8-4 with a 2.85 ERA in day games while he is 9-17 with a 3.82 ERA during night games. This is an edge I really don’t think should be overlooked. Also, Jon Lester continues to be given a luxury tax a bit late in his career. Let’s not forget he was pulled just two innings into his start against the Pirates earlier this month due to hamstring tightness. I like the Stripling and the Dodgers to take this one on the road at essentially even money.
19-6 IN LAST 25 MLB ML PICKS | +1169
8-3 IN LAST 11 CHC ML PICKS | +460
DENVER @ SAN ANTONIO | 4/25 | 8:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:29 PM
Facing elimination, the Spurs face a must-win Game 6 on Thursday night in San Antonio. They're too good and have too much pride to put in another subpar performance like the one they did in Game 5. Coach Pop won't allow it. Take the Spurs to cover and force a Game 7.
96-71-1 IN LAST 168 NBA ATS PICKS | +1784
31-19-3 IN LAST 53 DEN ATS PICKS | +1013
DENVER @ SAN ANTONIO | 4/25 | 8:00 PM EDT
1:22 PM
After being down 2-1 in this series, the Nuggets have stormed back to win the last two games by at least 14 points each. As tough as the Spurs can be, the Nuggets are the more talented squad. While this game being played in San Antonio could make it more competitive, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Nuggets put the Spurs away. Take the points Thursday in Game 6.
3-2 IN LAST 5 NBA ATS PICKS | +78
7-5-1 IN LAST 13 SA ATS PICKS | +147
DENVER @ SAN ANTONIO | 4/25 | 8:00 PM EDT
10:59 AM
This series should already be over. I still can't figure out how the Nuggets lost Game 3 when shooting 51 percent from the field and also from beyond the 3-point line. But they regrouped midway through the second quarter in Game 4 and played Nuggets basketball which is a lot of ball movement, lots of assists and running the offense through Nikola Jokic. Same thing in Game 5. They've got the momentum and know the gameplan for success. I'm on the Nuggets with the points.
17-9-1 IN LAST 27 DEN ATS PICKS | +708
ARIZONA -107
ARIZONA @ PITTSBURGH | 4/25 | 12:35 PM EDT
10:54 AM
Arizona goes for the four-game sweep today, and they have their ace on the mound, coming off his best start of the season with six shutout innings at Wrigley Field. Arizona has won four of his five starts, and the last time he was in Pittsburgh, in June, he pitched six shutout innings in a win. Another amenity about Greinke is that he's hitting .500 with two homers, two doubles, and four RBI. The Pirates have lost four straight, and their lineup looks like Triple-A lately. Arizona to win.
6-2 IN LAST 8 PIT ML PICKS | +578
CHI. CUBS -105
L.A. DODGERS @ CHI. CUBS | 4/25 | 2:20 PM EDT
10:48 AM
The Cubs, on a 9-2 run, are playing amazing baseball right now, and they get Jon Lester back today from a hamstring injury. The Dodgers have won seven of their last 10, but they're only batting .221 over that span, well below their season average of .260. Ross Stripling has faced the Cubs twice as a starter, and the Dodgers lost both. Cubs get the sweep.
6-1 IN LAST 7 CHC ML PICKS | +543
N.Y. YANKEES -111
N.Y. YANKEES @ L.A. ANGELS | 4/25 | 9:07 PM EDT
10:42 AM
The Yankees don't have Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Greg Bird, Aaron Hicks or Didi Gregorius in the lineup, but they are playing some great baseball riding a six-game winning streak. So it's a bit puzzling, as they go for a four-game sweep behind Masahiro Tanaka, that they're not at least -125 for this game against an Angels squad that has lost nine of its last 10, especially when starter Trevor Cahill has given up nine runs between his last two starts. Yankees with the value sweep.
YESTERDAY 10:47 PM
My projections see the Angels and Yankees plating nearly 10 combined runs Thursday, coasting Over the conservative total of 8 with room to spare. The Yankees are on an 11-2 run to the Over against right-handed starters, while the Angels are on a 5-1 run to the Over in home games against teams with winning records.
28-14 IN LAST 42 MLB PICKS | +1285
7-3-1 IN LAST 11 NYY O/U PICKS | +365
ATLANTA +115
ATLANTA @ CINCINNATI | 4/25 | 6:40 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:41 PM
My data sees the Braves beating the Reds in nearly 60 percent of simulations for their Thursday meeting, offering a massive overlay on the slight road underdog. Atlanta is 6-1 in the last seven starts by Julio Teheran against opponents with losing records and 4-1 when he starts the third game of the series. Let's scalp some major value with Atlanta.
28-14 IN LAST 42 MLB PICKS | +1285
9-3 IN LAST 12 CIN ML PICKS | +693
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