Service Plays Friday 4/26/19

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Stats Analytics Sports (MLB)

Top 3* - Rangers/Mariners Over 9

1* Milwaukee Brewers +165
1* Pittsburgh Pirates +158

[B*mb07]

Killer Sources Philly Guy - Red Sox Astros Dodgers Augie J - Avalanche Hurricanes over

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11TH Hour Sports

11th: MLB, 8u: 951 MIA+150 1st 5. MIA+155g. 953 SD+157 1st 5. SD+162g. SD O 3.5 & O 7. 959 CIN+131 1st 5. CIN+136g. CIN O 4 & O 8.

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LV Wolf
Miami / Philadelphia Over 8.5

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Dirty Bear Sports

MLB:
CIN/STL F5 UNDER 4.5 -110 3u
MIN F5 -.5 -140 1u

MLB Season: 20-19-2 51% -13.55 units

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Gabriel DuPont
50 Dime
Semifinal Opener
Game of the Year
Sharks

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Mike Lundin

Cardinals
Cubs Diamondbacks Under 9
Avalanche

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DWAYNE BRYANT

Adding
MLB
4% Padres-Nationals under 7 +100

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The Consensus Group

SYNDICATE SURE THING MLB Moneyline Winner

973 CLEVELAND w/KLUBER +110 8:10 ET

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H&H Sports

MLB
5* Tampa Bay Rays -114
4* Houston Astros -124

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Tony George

since 4/1: 27-17-2, +29.5 units

2 Units - Take #957 Colorado (+150) vs Atlanta *7:20 EST
Atlanta is back home after six games in Ohio and sends Max Fried to face Colorado. The Braves lefty has sharp 1.38 ERA, and he's won all three of his starts. But Fried and Atlanta seem overvalued at home at around -165, having just a 12-12 record is 20-27 (-18.1 Units) as a home favorite of -125 to -175 the last two years. The Rockies Antonio Senzatela (3.55 ERA) is a battler and like all Colorado pitchers, he is better on the road. With the Braves have won both games in Denver earlier this month, the Rocks are 9-2 in road games revenging two home losses and 16-7 away after scoring eight or more runs. Excellent ML dog action!

4 Units - Take #974 Houston (-135) over Cleveland *8:10 EST
Cleveland's Corey Kluber cannot wait for April to end as he been awful with 5.88 ERA and giving up more than a hit an inning. Kluber understands he'll get clubbed by Houston, who is averaging 6.2 RPG at home, which is why they are 8-2 in Juice Park. The Astros Collin McHugh started well but was abused for 10 runs in just over three innings in a loss at Texas in his last start, which raised his ERA to 4.88. Look for McHugh to pitch much better at home and with the total at 8, he and his teammates are 25-7 at Minute Maid Park when the total is 8 to 8.5. The Astros take Game 2 of the series.

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WUnderdog
MLB

Arizona-104 vs chicago cubs

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DR. CHUCK

BASKETBALL PLAYS

Game: (533) Golden State Warriors at (534) Los Angeles Clippers
Date/Time: Apr 26 2019 10:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 5%
Play: 1Q Golden State Warriors -4.0 (-105)

View Analysis

1 week ago last night the Warriors made their first road trip of these playoffs to go chill at Staples. After watching many contending teams take their respective series to 2-0 (Milwaukee, Boston, Houston, Portland), they arrived down south tied at 1-1 losing home court advantage.... but they're the champs, 1 seed, world beaters. They proceeded to be up by 10 points before Lou and Montrezl entered the game at the 5 minute mark and even the boost of those 2 high energy sparks the lead expanded to 17 by quarter's end.

2 nights ago the Clippers won AGAIN in the same series.at Oracle! This leaves the Dubs again in an embarrassing spot...traveling down south forced to play a game 6 on the road while being one of only 2 series to even extend past 5 games.

I can't even imagine the motivation Kerr instilled into 4 guys that already to a man have an INSANE amount of pride they wear on their sleeves. Lou and Montrezl will have the same schedule (as Doc finds no reason to mess with the program) and enter roughly 7+ minutes into the quarter. Hard to picture a scenario where this lovely spread isn't 4 times too small!! Not to mention WELL in hand by the time the offensive sparks check in at the table!

BASEBALL PLAYS

Game: (951) Miami Marlins at (952) Philadelphia Phillies
Date/Time: Apr 26 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 8.5 (+109)

View Analysis

Not crazy optimistic this game even goes tonight with the weather looking pretty grim with wind and storms expected...but this is one of the aspects why we make this a 4% hopefully getting this one in fully. The wind is projected to be well into the mid to high teens MPH going out to right and right center....with gusts and slight possibility of 20+mph seen at times.

Urena v. Eichkoff tonight in this matchup and aids our Over bet in my estimation...as Urena is lefty and will like face an entire lineup of RH batters save for Harper. Oddly enough the splits for each of these fellas help us in this spot as well. Harper has hit 80 points higher BA against lefties thus far for the Phils...at .308 with 3 doubles, 2 HRs, 6 RBIs, 5 BBs/1HBP, and 1.091.OPS. Facing lefties he has 185 wRC+ v. 105 against righties...not common but yet another benefit of the truly great players.

Add to this the fact Urena ain't at all scary facing lefties as a lefty....read: anti-Big Unit...he does K more lefties, but also allows as many hits, doubles, MORE HRs, many more BBs, and as a better view...his advanced road stats...



BA/WHIP/BABIP/FIP/xFIP

% .3642.63.333 10.619.27



Eickhoff is a solid back and his ERA is almost exactly playable as his FIP is 2 full points better...however regression to the mean is likely for such a guy...who will be lucky to find spots to start in a rotation of Arrieta, Nola, Elfin, Velasquez, and Pivetta.

Game: (965) Oakland Athletics at (966) Toronto Blue Jays
Date/Time: Apr 26 2019 7:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Oakland Athletics +120

View Analysis

Game: (957) Colorado Rockies at (958) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: Apr 26 2019 7:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 2%
Play: 1H Atlanta Braves -0.5 (-125)

View Analysis

Game: (971) Detroit Tigers at (972) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: Apr 26 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 9.0 (+106)

View Analysis

8.5 here would be a great deal if you can manage...I assume this will only move upward however, as first pitch nears...if I'm wrong, buying it down to 8 for maybe like -120 or -125 would be quite the play!

Rodon v. Norris

Rodon is pitching a little better here despite walking a ton of guys and having a BB rate far too high for a league without a pitcher hitting. He walks about 4 hitters per 9 innings and about works at about a 10% BB rate period. By no means is he the worst and plenty are worse than him and he is able to make up for detriment by striking out a solid %...but his BABIP and xFIP signal there will be some valleys following the peaks.

Daniel Norris is gonna be the more helpful of the 2 most likely anyway . I can't get you specific data regarding the O/U or follow/fade objective records for pitchers starting a game and it being a decent amount of time into the season who have stranded EVERY single runner who reaches base...but I would assume it borders being a play Over and/or against autoplay. Norris sits at 100% on the season alone with Ryu from LA. No offense to Danny Boy but he ain't no Ryu (who also has and 11/1 K to BB ratio compared to 2.5 for Norris).

Norris FIP/xFIP split is also 5.44/4.91 disguising his 2.70 ERA quite well and looking for even more offense against him.



Finally....the weather looks nice and dry for tonight with almost a 0% chance of precipitation the entire game...but with 15mph winds gusting out to center and right center for the entire 7pm to 11pm period...lending to accidents waiting to happen...damaging for a guy like Norris at almost 18% HR/FB on the year.

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Game: (973) Cleveland Indians at (974) Houston Astros
Date/Time: Apr 26 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 9.0 (-114)

View Analysis

System A- this season going 6-3-1 (or 7-3)

43-15-3 since start of 2018 season....active tonight in Houston.

Game: (971) Detroit Tigers at (972) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: Apr 26 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Chicago White Sox -0.5 (+110)

View Analysis

Nothing more than a fade of Norris a la the other write up...



Rodon>>>Norris

Game: (963) Pittsburgh Pirates at (964) Los Angeles Dodgers
Date/Time: Apr 26 2019 10:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Pittsburgh Pirates 0.5 (-105)

View Analysis

Archer v. Ryu

This is such an amazing price for Archer...who has been better thus far this year than in the previous couple seasons...is in the top 30 or so for FIP and has dropped his BABIP to his previous 2016 regular range currently sitting at an excellent .259. This is even better because he has a limited arsenal of pitches and against a solid offensive lineup they will catch up and start hitting him harder especially the 3rd time through the order.

Another excellent reason to avoid the bullpens here and the offense facing the bullpens is Ryu...as we mentioned in an earlier analysis of Daniel Norris facing Rodon...Ryu still hasn't let a single runner on base score this whole season so far! Every single baserunner has been stranded or knocked in via dinger. This seems unlikely to continue and snagging half a run & winning full on in a normal push situation with less than normal. vig....having wha. I think might be the better starter!

HOCKEY PLAYS

Game: (7) Carolina Hurricanes at (8) New York Islanders
Date/Time: Apr 26 2019 7:08 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 5.5 (-130)

View Analysis

Bookmaker already dropped this total to 5...albeit with +juice but still...Pinnacle is now forcing a -145 or worse to take this side. Might be worth waiting on a 5 for value sake...due to the large juice needed at some of the books. All this is happening on some number in the range of 60 to 70% of the tickets on the Over...while sharp money is all over the opposite with the sharpest books reeling to keep up on where the right spot to land this total.

The Islanders played just 4 games in the first round sweeping the Penguins but allowed just 6 goals in the series...specializing in the defensive end and capitalizing on quick change opportunities and actually dominating the scoring chances analytics against a much superior offensive team. The defense gets better as they wear the opponent's offense down as well...allowing 3 goals in the 1st, 2 in the 2nd, and just 1 goal in 4 total 3rd periods against Crosby/Malkin et al.

On the Canes side...they just finished a grueling 7 games series against the champs that they pulled off with a late goal in OT of game 7. Hard to imagine they aren't as maxed out or more in this opening game as Boston last night...getting many shots and opportunities but not maximizing on chances...the same rest gap exists in this series as it did in last night's game 1...that ended with 5 goals in OT. The goaltenders here are even a step up in class (at least by a smidge) from Bob and Rask.

The Under here is really solid value at 5.5 and even at 5...as worst case scenario is 2-2 heading to OT in my opinion. Empty netters are Under poison in the playoffs of course...but in a game 1 it is less likely to be as pertinent and extend for as much time as when the series goes on...personally I think this is tight and might be 1-1 or 2-0 late in the 3rd and we can hold on to a good 3 or 4 goal total.

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JR ODONNELL

3*
LA CLIPPERS / golden state over 231

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Mike Missanelli

Golden State