Service Plays Sunday 4/28/19

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WORLDS WORST PICKER

Super Pick: Toronto Blue Jays
Regular Plays: Washington Nationals Arizona Diamondbacks Cleveland Indians Milwaukee Brewers

Play ON the OPPOSITES

[PokherPlayher]

nba game of the month
marco D'angelo 5*
Golden State Warriors -5.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dirty Bear Sports

MLB:
ATL F5 -.5 -120 3u

MLB Season: 23-21-2 52% -12.85 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Exodus to Black
8-2 NBA playoffs
NBA
Bucks-8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Runner/ Big Move $1,000 Bucks -8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Seabass : 400 sharks , 400 hurricanes game over , 500 bucks , 400 g state(only if curry doesn’t play ), 400 rays game under , Oakland game over , Mets game under , Braves game over , mariners game over , Indians

[dawggy]

TONY FINNBASKETBALL PLAYS

• FINN SUN NBA PLAYOFF DOUBLEHEADER I
  Game: (551) Boston Celtics at (552) Milwaukee Bucks
  Date/Time: Apr 28 2019 1:05 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Heritage
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Boston Celtics 8.0 (-108)
  
  View Analysis
  
  PLAY: Boston Celtics +8 (good to +6)
  4% game rating
  (551) Boston Celtics at (552) Milwaukee Bucks
  The analysis for Game 1 of this second-round best-of-seven series isn't complicated or convoluted like the other three team vs team matchups. The variables with Milwaukee and Boston are, in the least analytical terms, saber-simple. The two teams couldn't be any different in terms of how they want to play and what their strengths and weaknesses are.
  Ignore, as hard as it may be, the series in the regular season between the two. The Bucks dominated the Celtics in the regular slate if you look no further than the final scores of the four games. However, the real game that was played, the numbers behind the numbers, and the current roster look and man-to-man matchups, will be different in this playoff series.
  
  The truth is that outside of the Greek Freak the Celtics can handle what Milwaukee puts in front of them. This with a healthy Kyrie Irving is healthy and Al Horford in the first rotation.
  
  There are two variables that are a given, trustworthy when examining this game player by player, minute by minute and position by position -- in a nutshell the first line vs the first line and second line vs second line, for the Bucks and Celtics, respectively.
  
  1. The first line of the Bucks finds the offense going through the Greek. What you will find Boston doing with their current top rotation vs the Freak is playing him one-to-two hands at length, forcing him to take jump shots. Mark it down and while watching the game witness just how soft the Boston frontcourt play Giannis Antetokounmpo. Part two of the first given of how the Celtics will approach the game, is my understanding from my sources at the Globe, is that the primary focus defensively will not be forcing the issue with Giannis. How many minutes that reserve Semi Ojeleye receives will be dependent on how well the offense runs when he is in to fulfill his assignment of staying in front of Giannis and being physical throughout. The physical part of Ojeleye in combination with Marcus Morris, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Gordon Hayward will all play fresh minutes and keep the Greek shooting jump shots. A scheme that has a better than not chance of working.
  
  2. The other trustworthy variable of the Celtics is the experience of how the playoffs are different from the regular season and the Celtics have a large end in this container. Look for the Celtics offense to refrain from being the three-point shooting team they were during the regular season and versus the Pacers in round one. The matchup of Al Horford versus Brook Lopez, when it presents itself, is a matchup that Stevens and his staff will take advantage of.
  
  It is safe to ignore what the Celtics did on both ends of the floor against Indiana. The Celtics' sweep of the Pacers made them appear to be more efficient offensively than they really are or can be. But the Bucks are everything but defensive minded.
  
  This Eastern semi-series is nothing short of a pick'em in each and every game regardless of venue. And getting a touchdown and a two-point conversion in Game 1 is big. A third given in this Game 1 matchup is one should fully expect the Celtics to be the aggressor, and if there is one of the four possible games that are most winnable for the Stevens, his staff and the players it is this event.. one in which Coach Bud will be forced to make in-game adjustments with his inexperience rotations.
  
  Investing into Boston plus the points in this Game 1 offers signficant money-line and ROI value.
  
  BOSTON CELTICS +8
  
• FINN SUN NBA PLAYOFF DOUBLEHEADER II
  Game: (555) Houston Rockets at (556) Golden State Warriors
  Date/Time: Apr 28 2019 3:35 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: William Hill
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Houston Rockets 6.5 (-110)
  
  View Analysis
  
  PLAY: Houston Rockets +6.5 (good to 6 points)
  4% game rating
  
  (555) Houston Rockets at (556) Golden State Warriors
  You have likely grown tired of reading and hearing about pundits wishes for this series. First and foremost I counted 10 articles at a number of basketball portals over the last two days that in some fashion or form titled this series as a wish that it be the Western Conference Finals -- with a trio of those columns going as far as calling it the NBA Finals
  These two teams, bottom line, in terms of player minutes and contributions are the same two teams that met in the finals a year ago. However, the Rockets were without a healthy pointman in Paul.
  
  The Rockets are the team with the motivational advantage. They are hungry to prove a number of different criticism of the current roster. They are as healthy as they have been all year, and they are facing a Golden State squad that is currently as dysfunctional, more so, than at any other time in the last four years. Questions surround where the likes of Durant will be next year and defensively this DubNation troupe is playing poorly.
  
  Game 1 is arguably the most interesting and series setting of any of the semi-final series. The short return to the hardwood for the Warriors in a series that was continually played at pace offers Houston yet another plus-variable and the play is on Harden and the Roks plus the points.
  
  HOUSTON ROCKETS +6.5

BASEBALL PLAYS

• FINN NL GAME OF THE WEEK (5-0)
  Game: (957) San Diego Padres at (958) Washington Nationals
  Date/Time: Apr 28 2019 1:35 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Washington Nationals -102
  
  View Analysis
  
  PLAY: San Diego Padres (good to )
  4% game rating
  (957) San Diego Padres at (958) Washington Nationals
  
  The San Diego Padres aim for their sixth straight victory in this getaway day in the nation's capital. The Padres send Joey Lucchesi (3-2, 4.33 ERA) to the mound to square off against Nationals Jeremy Hellickson (2-0, 4.34).
  
  Lucchesi takes the hill for in an attempt to be the third consecutive Padres pitcher to take down a Golaith. The SD lefty is still learning how to pitch from the stretch in the big boy league. Albeit small his history with the dreaded strand rate isn't overwhelming. And while LOB percentage is tied to batted ball luck to some degree like anything that is related to anything everything matters.
  
  The soft-tossing left-hander earned a Padres rotation spot last year and earned a dress rehearsal and an encore, several different times. His April was terrific and as is the case, especially for soft-throwing southpaws, the league did a catch-up number on Joey L and he scuffled.
  
  After a solid April the left-hander alternated good band not so good months. Lucchesi posted ERAs of 2.78, 4.20, 3.38, 5.21, 3.18 and 6.30. Outside of his surface number one could find an ERA in which one would believe would be that of a successful pitcher. His xFIP tells the real story. Inconsistency is part of the learning curve for young MLB arms and Lucchesi is no different. Warm weather and experience assisted the Padres lefty as he gained more and more innings pitched. And like last year he has cashed in with a hard contact percentage that makes it difficult to succeed. Last July he registered a 40.6% hard hit ratio and closed with a 37.5% in September. And while Joey is a selective option to support on gameday or night it is more difficult to back the Padres young southpaw outside of PetCo Park.
  
  Luchessi strikeout rate checked in at 25% in mid-summer but that regressed the more starts he put on tape for opposing managers, coaches and players tape crazy players. His ERA didn't match his less than 10% swinging strike ratio..
  
  His funky delivery is no longer a novelty and players have adjusted. His hard hit percentage (40%) will likely remain as is throughout his career unless he learns to spot his arsenal like Greg Maddux.
  
  And introducing Hellickson as whom we are looking for to be the pitcher of record today isn't difficult given the Padres April vitals. The Padres have the third lowest OBP versus right-handed pitching in all of baseball and the second lowest batting average with runners in scoring position.
  
  San Diego, as a team, is slashing .221/.284/.404. Hellickson has increased his ground ball/fly ball rate the last two seasons. He doesn't miss a large number of bats but the match today, from top to bottom of the lineup and on the mound favor the Nationals. San Diego is hitting .219 versus right-handed pitching and schedule home plate umpire is a negative fit for Lucchesi and his soft-throwing arsenal.
  
  Advantage Washington this afternoon, in every important game category. Toss in the schedule home play umpire Joe West and veteran Hellickson and the Washington lineup are an overwhelming value at the current pick'em price .
  
  WASHINGTON NATIONALS -102
  
• FINN NL GAME OF THE WEEK (5-0)
  Game: (963) Pittsburgh Pirates at (964) Los Angeles Dodgers
  Date/Time: Apr 28 2019 4:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Total Under 8.0 (+102)
  
  View Analysis
  
  PLAY: Under the Total of 8 runs (good to 8 runs)
  4% game rating
  
  (963) Pittsburgh Pirates at (964) Los Angeles Dodgers
  LIST PITCHERS: Williams and Hill
  The Pittsburgh Pirates under the direction of Clint Hurdle will be contenders in the completive NL Central as long as their pitching staff is healthy. The Pirates’ rotation has left been nothing short of terrific the first four weeks of the season. Their starting pitching has put together the best ERA in the National League, and their advantage over the next-best NL staff is nearly a full run.
  Trevor Williams is coming off yet another quiet but successful outing recording his fifth straight quality start in his fifth outing of the season. The right-hander allowed two runs over seven innings but like a number of games already this season -- as well as moving forward -- the Bucs offense didn't do enough to support his stellar seven innings of work in a 2-1 loss to the D-backs.
  
  Williams has faced the good and the bad of the league is his handful of turns. The soft-hitting Detroit Tigers was his fourth straight QS, before his last start vs Arizona. Williams has allowed more than three runs in a start only once since last July 6. Yet no one has or will talk about Williams unless the Pirates are relevant in August.
  
  As I mentioned in the last paragraph of analysis -- dating back to his post-July 6th start in which he allowed more than three earned runs the Bucs righty is 9-3 with a 1.20 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP across 14 starts of which 11 are quality. And note --- Williams did not allow a single earned run in nine of those starts.
  
  Williams as a 3:1 K to W ratio and he keeps it simply with 50% of his pitches being fastballs.
  
  The Dodgers send left-hander Rich Hill to the mound for this season debut. He has been on the IL for the past month after straining his left knee in a spring training game. His arm is built up, and the Dodgers are pushing him to the mound with the expectation he can toss six-plus innings -- especially against a Pirates offense that is dead last in the league versus left-handed pitching. The Pirates have score the least number of runs against LHP this season and are slashing a mere .226/.273/.321 with a ridiculously run starved OPS of.594.
  
  TOTAL UNDER 8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

11th: MLB O/Us, 8u: 965 TB O 4 1st 5. TB O 8g. 967 OAK O 4.5 & O 9. 953 MIL O 4 & O 8. 955 COL O 4.5 & O 9. 969 DET O 4 & O 8.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

charlie sports

---

gws-5
boston over 223
gws under 224.5

[B*mb07]

Killer Sources - Champagne - Braves Twins over Philly Guy - Phillies Red Sox Dodgers Braves Augie J - Avalanche Hurricanes over

[dawggy]

ROB VENOBASEBALL PLAYS

• Game: (955) Colorado Rockies at (956) Atlanta Braves
  Date/Time: Apr 28 2019 1:20 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Heritage
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+127)
  
  View Analysis
  
  
• Game: (969) Detroit Tigers at (970) Chicago White Sox
  Date/Time: Apr 28 2019 2:10 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Detroit Tigers -118
  
  View Analysis
  
  
• Game: (977) Cleveland Indians at (978) Houston Astros
  Date/Time: Apr 28 2019 7:05 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Westgate
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Houston Astros -1.5 (+180)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Miller locks

2:15 pm est mlb
laa angels vs. Kansas city royals

pick: Over 9.5 (+105)

risk: 11 units

3:30 pm est nba
houston rockets vs. Golden state warriors

pick: Golden state warriors -5.5 (-104)

risk: 11 units

4:10 pm est mlb
pittsburgh pirates vs. Los angeles dodgers

pick: Pittsburgh pirates +1.5 (-123)

risk: 11 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Micah Roberts


PITTSBURGH +165


PITTSBURGH @ L.A. DODGERS | 4/28 | 4:10 PM EDT
1:48 PM
Trevor Williams has made five starts and has allowed a total of nine earned runs between them with no more than three runs in any game. The Pirates have won four of his five starts and despite the light-hitting bats, they've given him enough to work with to get wins. Rich Hill will make his starting debut after a knee strain kept him in spring. Word is Hill's looked great rehabbing, but I trust Williams here more. I'm on Pittsburgh.

7-2 IN LAST 9 PIT ML PICKS | +678


CHI. CUBS -116


CHI. CUBS @ ARIZONA | 4/28 | 4:10 PM EDT
1:33 PM
Jose Quintana has never beat the Diamondbacks in three chances, but I also don't think he's been on many runs like he's on now with such a potent lineup backing him up. He's won his last three starts, two of them allowing no runs and in his last start against the Dodgers Tuesday, he allowed just two runs in seven innings. I'm on the Cubs win this rubber-match.

6-2 IN LAST 8 CHC ML PICKS | +438

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK


Game:(53) Colorado Avalanche at (54) San Jose Sharks
Date/Time: Apr 28 2019 7:38 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Colorado Avalanche +130

View Analysis

Backed the Avs last game to take game 1 as the more rested, underrated team, with the much superior goalie defending the crease...plus now Pavelski and no Donskoi again tonight...I am banking an awful lot on Martin Jones true self finding his way into this series...but if it ain't tonight then maybe, just maybe the Sharkies are gonna cruise to the conference finals. Sure do love fading such an easy road via backing a goalie with a sub 90% save rate and GAA damn near 3.
Game 1 was a fail for us but I was encouraged with some of what I saw and when analyzing what actually took place I felt even better about tonight...5-2 was certainly not telling of the true story...probably getting us a better number here as well. I "griped" I couldn't believe Colorado was being so disrespected such a big dog after manhandling Calgary while San Jose bloodied up the ice to survive in 7 games AND OT. Now I'm glad...as they lost and we still get a great number.
Analytics broken down the Avs did have fewer high danger scoring chances...but they had a higher xG and quality shot share...also they lost game 1 to Calgary followed by reeling off 4 straight wins in that series against a team with a very similar goalie profile, whichever goalie went in the game Smith or Rittich compared to Jones tonight.
A more focused, less sluggish and disjointed effort tonight from the visitors and they can get a bit of a monkey off the back with playing in the SAP Center.

[dawggy]

DR. CHUCK

• Game: (977) Cleveland Indians at (978) Houston Astros
  Date/Time: Apr 28 2019 7:05 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Heritage
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: 1H Cleveland Indians 0.5 (-155)
  
  View Analysis
  
  Carrasco v. Miley
  I like the Indians to take this game outright tonight and take 3 of 4 from the team who embarrassed them in last year's playoffs. The first 5 tie or lead = cash is just too good too pass up. As we've written ad nauseam about Carrasco being so easy to back...we also have Miley on the bump for the Stros. No offense to the perfectly respectable Wade Miley, but describing the dichotomy of this matchup in terms of both being #3 starters for their respective teams would be a baseball thesis I couldn't have written by tomorrow morning..let alone by firstpitch tonight.
  Carlos, who we will be backing de facto most every time he takes the mound....still has distinction of having the highest ERA/FIP chasm in the MLB. He sports a 6.00 ERA with a 2.70 FIP. He is a whole point lower in FIP than any pitcher even with dozens of spots of him in ERA ranking..
  And we GET. half a run!!!
  
• Game: (977) Cleveland Indians at (978) Houston Astros
  Date/Time: Apr 28 2019 7:05 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: William Hill
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Cleveland Indians +102
  
  View Analysis
  
  Pretty simple...we backed the Indians the first 3 games and their pitching just doesn't get any worse today and likely improves from a Kluber game they won...and a Bieber game they lost in 10. Carrasco as we've shown over and over is the most underrated pitcher in terms of 1989 stats and will be backed most every night. He doesn't control his team'soffense and he can't control his bullpen so I'd play it less than the 1st 5 but only by a bit because Indians plus money for 4 days in a row with Lindor back and healthy and sparking the team on the field and at the plate is just far too much value to ever pass...even against the AL's best team and on the road.
  Carrasco has a 2.70 FIP compared to his 6.00 ERA and for a fly ball pitcher has an exemplary 11.5%HR/FB rate. And my favorite looney toons stat is his .462 BABIP...reference point no other pitcher sports a number north of .400 yet his ERA is 6! Hr also Ks 14+ per 9...he is basically Jacob DeGrom of the AL...sound like someone worth backing each and every time?